Pacack
Super Pac-Fan
- Joined
- Jun 7, 2013
- Messages
- 8,066
- Location
- US (Mountain Time, -7 Hours)
- NNID
- Pacack
- 3DS FC
- 0688-5284-6845
Ooccoo:
Chance: 0.01%
Nope. Only a few characters are more unlikely than this.
Want: 0%
Nope.
Ms. Pac-Man Alternate Costume:
Chance: 40%
Possible because it's a fairly popular request. However, we're practically guaranteed to get one of the modern designs as an alt for Pac-Man already. So we need to ask:
A: Are all characters getting special alternate costumes like Wireframe Mac?
B: If so, will the characters like Wii Fit Trainer and Wario who already have alternate costumes (Overalls Wario and Male Wii Fit Trainer) get a special one as well?
I give A a 75% chance of happening just because Wireframe Mac wasn't asked for at all. If he was one of the more asked for alts, I could see it being a case of only the more requested ones making the cut. But this leads me to believe that all (or at least most) characters are getting special costumes.
Then I'd give B a 66.66% chance of happening. It seems to me that the alternate designs like Wario's and Wii Fit Trainer's are given the same prestige that the default costumes are in that they have their own recolors. I think the special costumes are a whole other animal. They will have only their default colors and will probably be unlockable. Thus, I don't think having one will stop us from getting the other. However, I'm not positive of that. Simply more confident than not.
So that's a 50% chance of that. We then need to take that percentage and multiply it by how likely it is that Ms. Pac-Man would be the chosen costume and not something else. I'd say a good 80% chance.
So our total chance comes out to 40%
Want: 70%
Ms. Pac-Man is cool, and I played Maze Madness to death when I was little, but I'd be fine with not having her. I already have the Pac-Person I care about.
Now Jr. Pac-Man, on the other hand, would make my life
Predictions:
Silhouette Stage: 20%
Aran Ryan: 3.33%
Nominations: Eirika x5
Chance: 0.01%
Nope. Only a few characters are more unlikely than this.
Want: 0%
Nope.
Ms. Pac-Man Alternate Costume:
Chance: 40%
Possible because it's a fairly popular request. However, we're practically guaranteed to get one of the modern designs as an alt for Pac-Man already. So we need to ask:
A: Are all characters getting special alternate costumes like Wireframe Mac?
B: If so, will the characters like Wii Fit Trainer and Wario who already have alternate costumes (Overalls Wario and Male Wii Fit Trainer) get a special one as well?
I give A a 75% chance of happening just because Wireframe Mac wasn't asked for at all. If he was one of the more asked for alts, I could see it being a case of only the more requested ones making the cut. But this leads me to believe that all (or at least most) characters are getting special costumes.
Then I'd give B a 66.66% chance of happening. It seems to me that the alternate designs like Wario's and Wii Fit Trainer's are given the same prestige that the default costumes are in that they have their own recolors. I think the special costumes are a whole other animal. They will have only their default colors and will probably be unlockable. Thus, I don't think having one will stop us from getting the other. However, I'm not positive of that. Simply more confident than not.
So that's a 50% chance of that. We then need to take that percentage and multiply it by how likely it is that Ms. Pac-Man would be the chosen costume and not something else. I'd say a good 80% chance.
So our total chance comes out to 40%
Want: 70%
Ms. Pac-Man is cool, and I played Maze Madness to death when I was little, but I'd be fine with not having her. I already have the Pac-Person I care about.
Now Jr. Pac-Man, on the other hand, would make my life
Predictions:
Silhouette Stage: 20%
Aran Ryan: 3.33%
Nominations: Eirika x5
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