Rate Their Chances Day Sixty: Ashley Robbins and Ragna the BloodEdge

[---]

I'll take that as a 100%.
Edit: ---, you only have five veteran nominations.

Oops, must have hit the wrong button, I'll fix it, sorry.

 

[Pseudomaniac]

Bowser- 100%
Derp.

Caeda- 60%
FOR
-Wife of the most popular FE rep.
-Potential for a unique moveset with her lance.
-Fairly popular.
-Has appeared in multiple FE games.
AGAINST
-Competition against Black Knight, Micaiah, and other FE reps.

I don't see her class as a restriction. All so-called "patterns" are based on 2 games, so I don't put a whole lot of stock in them, so I don't think her non-Lord status means much. Furthermore, she has appeared unmounted in games before, so that's not a huge issue.

Nominations
Veterans: Meta Knight [5]
Newcomers: Black Mage [5]

 

[Barbasol]

Bowser ~100% Possibly the most iconic video game villain ever.

Caeda ~52% We probably will be seeing a new Fire Emblem character, and while Caeda is one of the front-runners, she is probably less iconic than Black Knight, and less known than Lyn. So, it's really a toss-up right now. If FE 12 makes it overseas, it's more likely, but if FE 11 is the only release for her, it doesn't look good as that game wasn't very well received.

Want Level- 3

Prediction:
Skull Kid- 12.5%
Sonic- 92%

Nominations:
Veteran- Mr. G&W x5
Newcomer- Duck Hunt Dog x5

 

[Lightosia]

Bowser

100%

Caeda

Hmm, I can say she has quite a chance. She has been in all Marth's FE and lance users are quite unique (she would only use her pegasus for a final smash).
She has to compete with Lyndis and I can say their chances are pretty equal. (Lyn may have more chance because she was a AT)
Also, we need more females in Smash 4.
63% 4-wanted (not quite wanted, but I can't say I wouldn't like/be neutral to her addition)

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
Nominate (Veterans):
Snake (x5)

Nominate (Newcomers):
Genesect (x3)
Mii(x1)
Waluigi (x1)
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

Sonic-89%
Skull Kid-17%

 

[~ Valkyrie ~]

Bowser: 100%

Superiously popular and as iconic as Mario. Just wish he'll get buffed up this time. (-ll-);

Caeda: 56%

Marth's fiancee would be quite unique indeed (lance and a sword) and sounds like ideal companion for Marth.
But I don't really think her chances are that high if there's gonna be a new lord. Also there's Black Knight. (-l-l-)

I give her my score of neutral (3)

Nominating:

Newcomers:

x3 Lip
x2 Masked Man/*Avoids spoilers*

Veterans:

x5 Yoshi

 

[PK_Wonder]

Bowser: 100 Caeda: 53 nominations: Tingle x5.... sorry if this post looks funny, i'm on my 3ds and rushed.

 

[Zzuxon]

Bowser: 100%
Needs no explanation
Caeda: 56.5%
Caeda is not a super likely character. She's competing with Lyn, Micaiah,an Ephraim/Eirika tag team, and the Black Knight. NEUTRAL, though I'd rather see Lyn, or an Ephraim/Eirika.
Nominations:
Bubbles x4
Waluigi x4
Predictions:
Skull Kid: 20%
Sonic:90%

 

[Fluttershy]

Bowser 100% the only main villian that always has an appearence

Caeda 55%

Vets
Sheik 3
Captain Falcon 2
Newcomers
Soren 1
Krystal 2
Lloyd Irving 2

 

[finalark]

Bowser 100% - Main antagonist from a major franchise.

Caeda 30% - Its not impossible, but we've never seen a non-protagonist as a FE representative.

 

[Fuujin]

why would people think Caeda is gonna be playable....?
She rides a unicorn...how would that even work....?

 

[Shorts]

why would people think Caeda is gonna be playable....?
She rides a unicorn...how would that even work....?

She could get off?

 

[---]

why would people think Caeda is gonna be playable....?
She rides a unicorn...how would that even work....?

She can dismount it, and fight with a sword and lance, like she did in FE3.

 

[PK_Wonder]

Sorry for the messy post earlier, I was at work on my 3DS, getting made signal, and my break was almost over. But I'm glad I got back on to check and see that I was the winner of five extra nominations.

To reiterate, I gave Bowser 100% of course.
and I give Caeda a 53%, I see her as more likely than Black Knight and no more likely than our other two females choices, Lyn and Micaiah. It's really hard to choose a personal favorite there, but I only see space for one unless we have a 60-strong roster (which is reasonable without being overkill... but unlikely).

anyways, I predict Sonic to get a 92% (if we are predicting for him).
and for Skull Kid to get a 47.47% (there are at least a couple more worthy, relevant, and likely Zelda reps).

and since I get double votes, (I already gave 5 to Tingle)... give the other 5 to Mii. and give my 5 newcomer nominations to Kirby por favor.

 

[Johnknight1]

You may rate how likely Bowser and Caeda are. The poll ends at 8:00 PM CST. On-deck are Sonic and Skull Kid; of which you may predict the score they get tomorrow.

Bowser - 100%; It wouldn't be the same without him
Caeda - 5%: 2 reps is enough for Fire Emblem. 3 is the most the series will get. Metroid has 1 rep in 2 forms, and it's sold probably 10 to 20 times as many units as Fire Emblem has.

If my theories are correct:
1. Marth is a lock since he is the face of the franchise.
2. There will be no Fire Emblem characters who weren't the main character in their game.
3. There will be no more than 3 Fire Emblem reps.
4. If there are three, it will either be Marth, Ike, and a new Fire Emblem main character for an upcoming game or Marth, Ike, and Roy.
5. If there's two Fire Emblem reps, it will be Marth and Ike, or Marth and a new Fire Emblem main character in an upcoming game.

Want: 2 (at least her moves in her games were unique)

I predict Sonic gets a 95% (really, Smash would not just lose a market without him, but a franchise)
Skull Kids gets 28% (people will highball his chances, but his chances are next to nil; if there is a new Zelda character, it's Toon Zelda/Tetra or Vatti).

Nominate:
Captain Falcon['s nipples] (x5)
Mii (x5)

 

[Deleted member]

@Zzuxon: Given that you did not use your extra nominations yesterday, I will count it.

@PaulKagebin: You have Kirby five nominations for vets.

Anyway, ending Day Twenty-Three a bit early. Will get the next day up quickly.

 

[Deleted member]

Bowser gets a perfect score.
Caeda gets a 49.55% and 3.13 in deserving.

Will add flavor when I'm not lazy.

PaulKagebin wins five newcomer nominations. Congratulate him for being the closest to predict two times in a row! *clap hands*

Sonic and Skull Kid are up for polling. Poll ends at 8:00 PM CST. On deck are Skull Kid and Captain Falcon. You may predict what Medusa gets tomorrow.

 

[Barbasol]

Sonic ~ 95% While he's a guest character, Sonic was one of the most demanded characters throughout Smashes history, and there would be huge backlash if he were to leave. Still, we don't have a precedent, maybe Guests will only stick around one game... Want Level- 4

Skull Kid ~ 18% Skull Kid starred in Majora's Mask, also appearing in Twilight Princess and Ocarina of Time. So, he's fairly recurring... and if Majora's Mask gets it's 3D remake like is rumoured, his chances go up. Want Level-5

Nominations
========
Veteran- Mr. G&W x5
Newcomer
- Waluigi x4
- Duck Hunt Dog x1

Predictions
-Medusa 46%

 

[Deleted member]

Sonic the Hedgehog

I would be very surprise to see him get the axe. Sega and Nintendo have a very good relationship with each other and semi-constantly make cross-over games with each other which do very well. Sonic has also appeared in Brawl due purely to fan demands. I can easily imagine Sega letting Sonic return.

Still, he is third-party and guest characters returning is unprecedented, but I still think he'll more likely then not return.

85%

Skull Kid

I was never interested in Skull Kid at all and I fail to see why people want him in. I am Against his inclusion.

Skull Kid's chances of appearing are really poor to say the least. He receives low demands for his inclusion, not relevant to the series, not that important to The Legend of Zelda, and doesn't look like a character that stands a realistic shot of getting in.

10% and that's being generous. I absolutely cannot imagine him in the game.

Predicting 71.22% for Medusa.

Nominations

Veterans:
Zero Suit Samus (x5)

Newcomers:

 

[---]

Sonic - 70%

He is a veteran, he is popular, but he is a 3rd Party character, while we don't know what deal Nintendo did with Sega to get him in Brawl or if Nintendo even wants 3rd Party Characters in SSB4, chances are in his favor to return, I give him a 5.

Skull Kid - 5%

His best chance was in Melee, but even then they were mediocre at best, there are also more deserving characters in the Zelda series that are more popular and relevant then him (cough...Tingle...cough), I give him a 1.

Nominations:
Snake x3
R.O.B. x2
Ryu Hayabusa x3
Mii x2

Predictions:
Medusa - 65.77%

@SSBF you put Skull Kid up for both ratings and predictions instead of Medusa on your last post,

 

[Lightosia]

Sonic

Sonic vs Mario should be an eternal fight.
For Sonic (and Sega), it is always a good choice to be with Mario, since he is more popular and his games sell more.
While not a shoe-in, his chances are better than any 3rd party character... again!
90% 5-deserving

Skull Kid

Err, fans that want him in probably think about his Majora's Mask incarnation. Despite possible future remakes for 3DS, Skull Kid do not has that importance to the series as other characters.
I can even say the new guy from Zelda SS (Gihr...) has a lot more chance to appear in Smash 4.
7% 1-against

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
Nominate (Veterans):
Snake (x5)

Nominate (Newcomers):
Genesect (x3)
Mii(x1)
Waluigi (x1)
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

Medusa-45%

 

[finalark]

Sonic - 80% (SEGA and Nintendo seem to be pretty cozy, especially with the Mario and Sonic series. But if Sakurai decides that he wants 3rd party characters to stick around for only one game don't expect to see him).

Skull Kid - 50% (MM has a rather strong cult following, its possible but it seems that Nintendo is only interesting in including characters that are popular in their homeland over foreignly loved ones).

 

[Shorts]

Sonic - 70% I would like to see him gone, but that isn't very likely. He is at 5 stars in deserving.

Skull Kid - 15% Just not likely. I actually love this character, but he is just soooo unlikely. 3 in deserving

Medusa will get a 56%
My votes go for

kirby x 5

and Jill Valentine x 5

 

[~ Valkyrie ~]

Sonic: 98%

If Sakurai's still taking in 3rd party characters, then expect him to be there already. But some moves need a bit reworking so he can KO more easily.

Skull Kid: 8%

He's... an NPC in OOT, who became a villain in Majora's Mask... and TP... you know the drill.

I don't still get why would people seemingly want this guy- I wonder what's so deserving about him as Nintendo All-Star.

I'm against this guy's inclusion. (1) Sorry SkullKid.

Nominating again:

Newcomers

x3 Lip

x2 Mike Jones

Veterans

x3 Mr Game & Watch

x2 Yoshi

Predicting Medusa to get 62%.

 

[Zzuxon]

Sonic: 95%
The only reason he's leaving is if nintendo get's rid of all 3rd party characters.
Skull Kid: 55%
Skull Kid is the best choice as a zelda rep for the wii U version, because he's had 3 appearances, as opposed to other candidates 1. But he's still not very likely, as nintendo will likely do someone else. I'd like to see him, so I give him WANTED.
Predictions:
Medusa: 35%
C. Falcon:96%
Nominations: Waluigi (mario party/kart/sports rep) x4
Bubbles x4

 

[AN(M)ist]

sonic - 90%

Huge popularity among third party characters. His popularity rivals mario's and is really really unlikely to get a boot. 5 in deserving as well.

But please give him a better moveset and KO potential.

Skull Kid: 7%
Not really sure if nintendo wants another character to get in from zelda series; they have four already. But then, Skull kid's chances aren't zero either. He is a nintendo product after all.

nomination: Kirby *5
newcomer": Tails *5

 

[PK_Wonder]

Sonic: 97%
There's absolutely no reason he shouldn't be in, and his chances are higher now than they were when Brawl came out (relations with SEGA are better than ever, and Nintendo support of Sonic is as full-throttle as ever).

Skull Kid: 17%
He has minimal demand, and even if we get TWO new Zelda slots, I doubt he'd take one. He has... decent... moveset potential, and would be fun, but he's not deserving. I keep nominating Tingle for obviousness sake, but I don't really want him either.

I guesstimate 69.4% for Medusa.

I give my five vet noms to Snake.
and newcomer: Tingle x5, Mii x5

 

[~ Valkyrie ~]

Um... did Skull Kid pull a doomsday on us now for rating him down so badly?

It's silent... dead silent.

 

[camerino1]

Sonic: 85%
I am pretty sure he is going to get back in for the fourth, only issue is that he is third party, so he may not. He does deserve it though. (4.8 in deserving category)

Skull Kid: 12%
I can't see him making it. He isn't the most important character story-wise of the ones that haven't been put in yet from Zelda. Tingle is much more likely from Zelda. (...can I go lower than one... if not it's 1, if so, 0.5)

Newcomer:
Isaac (x3)
Caeda (x1)
New Fire Emblem lord for WiiU (x1) (You know they could do it, they did it with Roy).
Veterans:
Roy (x5) (I want him back so badly, just not as a Marth clone, semi-clone with the B attacks the same as they were would be great). I made a new moveset for him even... it's no longer a Marth clone, but still has some of the old characteristics.

I guess 54.7% for Medusa.

 

[Deleted member]

I am so sorry for the wait. I tried logging in yesterday and changing my password, but it did not work. Finally, I got it working this morning, so everything should be back in working orders.

I will leave this poll up until 11:00 AM CST this morning.

@camerino1: You cannot use decimals in rating how much you want a character, just solid numbers from one to five. I'll take the 1 rating for Skull Kid.

 

[§witch]

Stupid *** choices. Skull kid has a 0% chance of being in.

 

[Deleted member]

And with that the day has ended. I'll tally up the scores and have the results by noon.

@camerino1: Roy has already been polled and so has Isaac and Caeda.

@Zzuxon: I believe you only have five newcomer votes, so your nominations for Bubbles will count only once

 

[Deleted member]

Sonic gets 86.18%
Skull Kid gets 17%

Will add flavor eventually...

I have won five veteran nominate for being the closest to predicting Sonic's score. Lightosia hits the bulls eye with predicting Skull Kid's score, so today, he gets to have fifteen newcomer nominations.

Captain Falcon and Medusa can now be rated. Poll ends at 8:00 PM CST tomorrow and on-deck candidates are Zero Suit Samus and Mii. You may predict what Mii gets tomorrow.

 

[PK_Wonder]

Captain Falcon: 100%
Medusa: 76%, which is higher than I'll give any villain that is not Ridley or King K. Rool. Why? Because Kid Icarus: Uprising is set to be a blockbuster title, and there's nothing unlikely about Sakurai adding a second rep from the popular and critically acclaimed title he just finished working on. She may or may not have competition from Palutena, but my intuition tells me he'd rather focus on protagonist and antagonist in this particular case.

I predict a 52.5% for Mii.

Yoshi x5
Tingle x3, Samurai Goroh x2
Two characters I couldn't support less (unless you're Skull Kid ), but are obvious suggestions that stand a mild chance of getting and I'm very curious as to what their scores will be.

 

[PK_Wonder]

By the way, SSBFan, I have a suggestion/request. In the likelihood section can you add the series/universe each character is from in their listing? (as you do for Ray (Custom Robo)). It doesn't serve much now when we know who all of them are, but it'll be for good measure later for newcomers to the project once we begin to rate more obscure characters. It would also be interesting and more convenient if we wanted to compare characters from the same or different franchises. So Little Mac (Punch-Out!!), Ridley (Metroid), etc. But your project, what you agree with goes.

 

[Deleted member]

Captain Falcon

Why isn't he available from the start in Brawl? No reason to put him as an unlockable anymore.

100%

Medusa

We should definitely get a female villain in Smash and Medusa is the best choice we have. I cannot wait to see what the team does with her in Kid Icarus: Uprising. Plus Kid Icarus is almost guarantee a second slot, so why not? Deserving

I would place her among the Top Five most likely characters for SSB4. She receives high demands for her inclusion, partly due to being a female villain, but also because the series will likely have earned a second spot by the time SSB4 rolls around. That means she is certainly relevant. Not only that, Medusa is the third most important character in the Kid Icarus series; next to Palutena and Pit himself. With all of these things going for her inclusion and only potential competition holding her back, Medusa will probably be playable in SSB4.

87.50%

Predicting that Mii's gets a 52.17%. I will not be voting on this since I'm worried that my bias will affect the score too much.

By the way, SSBFan, I have a suggestion/request. In the likelihood section can you add the series/universe each character is from in their listing? (as you do for Ray (Custom Robo)). It doesn't serve much now when we know who all of them are, but it'll be for good measure later for newcomers to the project once we begin to rate more obscure characters. It would also be interesting and more convenient if we wanted to compare characters from the same or different franchises. So Little Mac (Punch-Out!!), Ridley (Metroid), etc. But your project, what you agree with goes.

For the first suggestion, I'll make sure to do that. As for the second suggestion, what do you mean? Are you talking about comparing two characters after they have been rated? If so, I'll probably make another blog in regards to it.

 

[---]

Captain Falcon - 100%

Medusa - 60%

Since we all know Sakurai is working on KI Uprising, chances are he may add another KI character, she is both a villian and a female character something of which Smash needs more of, I give her a 3 (I'm a Palutena fanboy ).

Predictions:
Mii - 75%

Nominations:
Snake x3
R.O.B. x2
Ryu Hayabusa x5

 

[~ Valkyrie ~]

Captain Falcon: Hundred Falcon Punches-

Memetic Badassness keeps him in. Which is... kinda lame sometimes.

(100%)

Medusa: 60%
While I don't still see how would she fight like clearly, it seems that there's somewhat huge chance she'll appear in SSB4, because she's an antagonist in KI-series, and seemingly has gotten huger role in Uprising. But last time she was a wall having an eyeball on it. (-l-l-);
But Medusa would be ideal first female villain. Why not.

My thoughts on her chances might go way up if she's actually badass and worth of a fight in close combat against Pit in Uprising, but now I'll give 60% due how I try not to judge her too early without looking at her resources.

I'm neutral on her inclusion. (3)

Nominating:

Newcomers:

x1 Lip
x4 Bubbles

Veterans:
x2 Mr Game & Watch
x3 King Dedede

 

[Deleted member]

My nominations:

Vets
Yoshi (x1)

Newcomers):
Ryu Hayabusa (x1)
Slime (x1)
Diddy and Dixie Kong (x1)
Ghirahim (x1)
Jiro (x1)

 

[finalark]

Captain Falcon - 100% (The only character to represent the F-Zero franchise and it would be a waste the throw away his character)

Medusa - 50% (I can see her being including if Kid Icarus takes off and she ends up becoming a popular character somehow, its possible but nothing I would bet on)

 

[Fluttershy]

Caption Falcon 100% 5
the reason? FALCON PUNCH!!!

Medusa 60%

Vets: Sheik (5)
Newcomer: Lloyd Irving (5)

What's going to happen when all the veterans are done? are you going to do two newcomers instead of 1 vet and 1 newcomer?