Rate Their Chance Returns! Day 13 - Bowser Jr.

[Curmudgeon]

PAC-MAN
LIKELIHOOD: 40%
WANT: 10%

TOON LINK
PREDICTION: 68.5%

Nominations
Paper Mario x5

 

[Groose]

So can I just jump in whenever?

Yup! If I am allowed to speak for Super Smash Bros. Fan for a moment, this is a hassle-free thread. If you miss a day, no big deal.

You followed the rules pretty perfectly, but you can also predict how people will rate the next day's character. Doing so may net you more nominations for the follwing day, provided your guess is pretty accurate.

 

[Autumn ♫]

Don't really feel like posting explanations right now so

Pac-Man Chances: 75%

Want:50% I really don't care if he gets in or not.

Toon Link Prediction:65%. I just don't find Toon Link or any 2nd Link very needed.

 

[Groose]

- Namco isn't a big major third party developer for Nintendo, and is miles behind Konami, Sega, Capcom and Square.
- Was not a popular choice at all until the news that Namco was working on the game.

Namco actually is pretty tight with Nintendo. They've published dozens of games on the Wii and the DS and already have over a dozen 3DS games. Also, they've developed many Nintendo-published games and had several Nintendo exclusive deals. This is especially true around the Gamecube era. They worked on Star Fox:Assault, Mario Kart GP and had exclusive characters in the Gamecube version of Soul Calibur. Oh, and Monolithsoft Studios originated from Namco-Bandai.

And personally, after Sonic's reveal, I wanted Pac-Man for Brawl. There's always been some support, but Mega Man overshadowed him as the most wanted third-party character.

 

[papagenos]

Pac-Man, Likelihood: 95%

Why? The Leak. Seriously the LEAK. Not the guess, not the prediction, the leak. It's not 100% cause it won't be until I see it BUT if you think not being revealed at E3 proved it wrong your about to be disappointed.

Pac-Man want: 25% He's cool, certainly worthy of getting a 3rd party spot (would love to play megaman vs. pacman vs. sonic vs. mario, seems like the "90's" 4 iconic video game characters). Not particularly into Pac-Man, there are other 3rd parties I'd rather have, I'm also a Tales fan and would love to have Lloyd but I know that Pac-Man is the more deserving 3rd party rep for namco and I'd rather we get the worthy characters over the ones I want personally. One of my problems with Brawl was that we got character I didn't think deserved a spot filling up the roster and since 3rd parties are a big deal and a very limited number they need to be especially deserving (sonic was clearly deserving...snake was "arguably" but characters like megaman are clearly more deserving but I understand the circumstances of snake and I like him as a 3rd party he's just more like a 9th or 10th in line for deserving 3rd party characters and not a 1st or 2nd that sonic and megaman are, Pac-Man is easily a 3rd or 4th).

Nomination:
Little-Mac

 

[TumblrFamous]

Sorry, its tough to post replies on mobile devices, so today im going to have to simply give rates.

Pacman chance: 90%

Pacman Want: 75%

For toon link, Im giving him a low 42.5%. People will surely give him low scores.

As for my nominations, i will change it up and give my five votes to Mewtwo.

 

[Lightosia]

Pac-man: 25% ~
Come on, guys, that leak is only half true, he also said that all 6 characters were going to be at E3. It's just a way to spit truths between lies.
See this? http://www.neogaf.com/forum/showthread.php?p=58046232
Check how many things he got right and wrong.

Oh well, I guess I'm kinda biased against him, I don't want to believe the leak is true.

Want: 10% ~
-He isn't that Nintendo friendly
-He would be taking an important slot for better 3rd party characters

Toon Link Prediction - 47%

Still with the same nominations:
Lucas x2
Jigglypuff x2
Ike

 

[Groose]

Come on, guys, that leak is only half true, he also said that all 6 characters were going to be at E3. It's just a way to spit truths between lies.
See this? http://www.neogaf.com/forum/showthread.php?p=58046232
Check how many things he got right and wrong.

Is this actually the "leak?" I see no mention of the "six newcomers" anywhere.

 

[Lightosia]

Is this actually the "leak?" I see no mention of the "six newcomers" anywhere.

No, this was: http://www.neogaf.com/forum/showpost.php?p=62304489&postcount=2996

Both were "leaked" by the same person.

 

[Crap-Zapper]

Wow, missed out on 2, been sleep'n all day lol anyways

Pac-Man 100 (If the leak is true) if not I'd say 78.5%
Pac-Man is Namco's mascot and would be most likley the one they would go by, even tho fans also claims Tekken/Soul and even Tales characters the way to go. It is more likley they will use Pac-Man since his Pac-Man World incernation would translate well with Nintendo.

Want: 60%
I wouldn't mind Pac at all, he is one of the 3rd Parties I have always though would be in one day eventually, so I don't care. Mega Man was my highest hope on 3rd Party character and he is in already so, whatverer. Tho I do see a lot of Nintendo reps coming before him tho...


Toon Link's Predicition 80%


SSBF (I still wait with my Nominees )

 

[Xenigma]

SSBF (I still wait with my Nominees )

Even if you're saving the extras, you ought to use your 5 freebies for this round since those aren't saved between rounds.

No, this was: http://www.neogaf.com/forum/showpost.php?p=62304489&postcount=2996

Both were "leaked" by the same person.

He runs a small news blog and got tips from two different sources.

 

[Crap-Zapper]

Even if you're saving the extras, you ought to use your 5 freebies for this round since those aren't saved between rounds.

I know but I can use them whenever I want. (since I haven't been giving scores in 2 days) I've just wanted to tell that I know I still got my new ones (that I won) and not intend to use until later, where I boost a certain character

 

[Sid-cada]

Pac-Man
Prediction - 30% - The rumors have doubled his chances. Yeah, I don't see what Sakurai would chose him unless Namco is pushing for him, and he's the most likely Namco rep. That's all he has going for him.

Want - 20% - Bleh. Sakurai really has his work cut out for him if he wants to win people over.

Edit: Forgot again.

Toon Link Prediction - 49% - Yeah, definitely some pessimism here, at least due to Spirit Tracks Link.

Nominations -
Lucario X3
Roy X2

 

[EddyBearr]

Pac-Man's Chances: 50%. He's the most noteworthy and expected, but he has competition with easier moveset potential. Namco making the game and him being a possible "retro throwback" help him, but I'm really skeptical.
Pac-Man want: 10%. I don't like the idea at all.

Toon Link Prediction: 60%. There's the folks who doubt him, the folks who hate him through bias, and the folks who think he's guaranteed.

Nominations:
Toon Zelda/Tetra x3
Rayman x1
Waluigi x1

 

[Neanderthal]

No, this was: http://www.neogaf.com/forum/showpost.php?p=62304489&postcount=2996

Both were "leaked" by the same person.

The other one that you linked above was from a different source. Just because he had one source for another game which got some things wrong doesn't imply anything about this source.
And he's being very genuine in that post about this leak not having any credibility to him. You can tell that he's not an attention seeker. He just has connections.

 

[Zuby]

Pac-Man
Likelihood - 30%
Sure, Namco working on the game would lead toward their company securing the last 3rd party slot, but Pac-Man? Seriously?

+ Namco character
+ Inexplicably popular
- Another no-character character
- Third parties are always difficult to predict
- Namco have many more appropriate characters that should be considered first

Want - 0%
It's a ridiculous premise. Plus, as I've said before, and will say every time we rate one of them, I don't like the idea of including third party characters.


Toon Link prediction: 58%
A lot of people have made their illogical opinions clear, so I'm expecting a lot of detractors based on very flimsy "evidence"


Nominations:
5x Jigglypuff

 

[Keto]

Pac-Man: 50% Namco Bandai.

Want: 25%

Toon Link: 30.4%

Sandbag x5

 

[Alban712]

Pacman

Likelihood: Characters from 3rd parties are always difficult to predict, but considering the fact that Namco is producing the game and he's a classic and iconic character, I can see him getting an average chance, despite being really unappealing and uninteresting as a fighter. 50 %

Want: 0% Can we give negative percentages?

Toon Link: 54,6%

Nominations:
Bowser Jr. 5x

 

[Swamp Sensei]

Pac-Man: 68%
Really, I'm pretty much basing this on whether the leak is true or not. I think it is to be honest. No one predicts Wii Fit Trainer.

No one.

Want: 55%
He's growing on me.Still don't really want him though.

Toon Link Prediction: 42%
People are going say that he's DECOMFURMED and A CLONE ZOMG and will state that he will be the first to be removed. Sad really.

Nominations:
Pokemon Trainer x3
Mewtwo
Little Mac

 

[Fastblade5035]

Pac Man: 55%
Mostly because of his history and status as Namco's 'mascot' or sorts.

Want: 20%
Actually, I don't want a Namco rep at all, so...


Toon Link: 45%
You'll have the hordes of SPIRIT TRAIN DISCONFIRMEDSS!, but that shouldn't do too much damage.

Nominations:
Owain x5

 

[Chauzu]

Pac-Man

Likelihood: 70%

Hard one, this one. A lot to consider - the leak, his status (overall and with Nintendo), potential moveset, how he would fit, etc. In the end I felt that the 70% reflects how I've weighted everything against each other. Of course, if the leak is true it's a 100% but I refuse to accept that really.

Want: 0%

I just don't want him. I don't have any feeling that tells me I want him. But this just means he'll grow on me if he's in.

Toon Link: 57%

Nominations:

Uncle Scrooge x2
Phoenix Wright x2
Takamaru

 

[Toxicroaker]

Pac-Man: 10% I very highly doubt they will bring in another 3rd party character OF ANY KIND
want: 0% I CAN NOT stress how much I don't want him

Toon Link: 30% the toon link is on the spirit train he is deconfirmed is already bouncing all over my head

Nominations x5 waddle dee

Holy friggin cow only 2 votes for zoroark but 20 something for scrooge? WTF FML

 

[Xhampi]

Pac-Man
Likeliness : 40% Since a Namco rep may not happen and even if it do, nothing say that it will be Pac-Man.

Want : 50% I'm pretty okay if he does make it but if SSB4 was to get 2 3rd party I rather have the professor Layton .

Prediction :
Toon Link : 50%
With the Ocarina of time stage, I would not be surprises if Young Link make his return.
And the fact that Toon Link get no attention in the trailer as a returning veteran seems odd.
But then again it's Spirit tracks Link, not Wind waker Link, so who knows.

Nomination :
Mewtwo X5

 

[FalKoopa]

Pac-Man:
Likelihood: 50%
It can go either way at this point. If Namco-Bandai gets a rep, it will certainly be Pac-Man, but as they are not getting any special treatment, Pac-Man has to stand on his own merits.

Want: 15%
One of the few characters who I do not want. Flat out boring and uninteresting design. I won't begrudge his inclusion though, I suppose. He has moveset potential, but the moves don't appeal me either.

Toon Link prediction: 40%
So many people believe that the Spirit Train stage disconfirms him, it's not even funny. (>_>)
A good number of SmashBoards users and probably the whole of GameFAQs would probably give his likelihood in the range of 10% - 30%.

Nominations:
Lyn x 5

 

[Admiral Pit]

Pac-Man

Likelihood: Um... 50%
I have no idea on this.

Want: 0%
I do NOT want him in at all. Reminds me of a Yellow Kirby with longer arms and feet that eats pellets and ghosts... -_- However, I will gladly use him as a punching bag in training mode a lot if he somehow magically gets in.

Toon Link Prediction: 48%
Meh. It's that train stage that will get everyone.

Nominations
Bowser Jr. x5

Hoping it's right. It's been a while.

 

[Erimir]

Let's see...

Popularity: Pac-Man seems to have decent demand. Not top-tier by any means, but he might also have quite a bit more hate than other characters. He is statistically tied with Mario for most famous video game character in the US. At least in the top five worldwide, I'm sure. Buuuuut...

Relevancy: Pac-Man's fame stems pretty much from the arcade. Sure, he might have had a couple decent games since then, but nobody knows Pac-Man because of those games. It's because of the arcades in the 80s. He's not a continuing force in modern games except as a mascot. And he doesn't have very much relevance to Nintendo in the way that Mega Man (started on NES, stayed mostly on NES, GB and SNES, strong presence on Nintendo handhelds, probably more sales on Nintendo than anywhere else, was even a main character on Captain N) or Sonic (Mario's 16-bit rival, now one of Mario's besties). I will give him that Snake isn't really any more relevant to Nintendo. Possibly even less relevant than Pac-Man. Seriously, why is Snake in Smash? I'd say that characters like Simon Belmont, Bomberman or an old-school Final Fantasy rep are more deserving of a spot as Nintendo all-stars.

Design potential: Pac-Man seems kinda boring. I'm sure they can put something together, he has appearances in a number of games like Pac-Man World, but whatever they put together isn't really going to feel like Pac-Man to most people because, you know, most people just know the arcade game. It also seems that some of what he does in the Pac-Man World games wouldn't be very original (a Mario-like butt pound, a Sonic-like spin dash). The one thing from his arcade games that could work is using a Power Pellet as his Final Smash. Definitely gets minus points on this count.

Roster considerations: Well, Pac-Man is pretty iconic. If Sonic stays in, you'd have the mascots of NIntendo, Sega, Capcom and Namco all in one game. That's cool in a way. But for an iconic four-way mascot brawl I would prefer others to be the fourth... Still, it's a point in his favor.

Technical/legal issues: Pac-Man should be easy to implement. Since Namco is helping out, they probably would agree to have Pac-Man in, and they've already had him in Nintendo games before (like the Mario Kart arcade game). They probably could be persuaded to have another one of their characters in, or they might prefer someone else, so it's really up to Sakurai I think. But while other Namco characters might make more interesting fighters, I don't know that any of them have the star-power.

Sakurai/rumors: Well, Sakurai says Namco gets no special treatment... but kinda hard to think they wouldn't get at least a little bit. And if Namco actually asks, Sakurai would probably be open to it. I mean, he let them put Snake in even though Snake has no business being in a game of Nintendo all-stars (and unlike Sonic is not a "rival" to Mario). I don't think compared to Sonic and Snake, Sakurai would consider it special treatment to put in a single Namco character if they asked nicely.

As for the leak, well, if all we have is a seemingly very lucky guess, it's still possible it was just a guess. I mean, how many predictions were made about E3? If it's hundreds, then it's a much less special occurrence. Consider, also, if it's just a lucky guess, then he guessed 6. That makes it a lot easier to get 3 right. And yes, someone besides Sakurai could think of WFT. And considering that aside from WFT they're all pretty obvious choices, I'm not convinced there's anything to it yet. Even so, it has a little bit of influence.

Pac-Man chances: 70%
I'm really going back and forth on this one. But I guess he's more likely than not with the strong possibility of Namco getting a rep, his iconic status (therefore by far most likely Namco rep) and the "leak" adding a couple points.

Pac-Man want: 2%
I don't want him to be in the game. He's a boring character with a boring design that was locked in because he came from an era when animating a pie chart was considered graphics, he's not relevant to Nintendo, his fame all stems from a very basic arcade game with little move set potential and so his move set would primarily be drawn from a series of derivative games. DO NOT WANT.

Toon Link prediction: 39.5%
I think that the Spirit Tracks will cause enough skepticism that people think he's less likely than not. But we could also see an influx of supporters trying to bolster him. Seems like GameFAQs tends to be more negative in general though, so probably he will get more low votes than high.

Nominations:
Simon Belmont x5

 

[SirPainsalot]

Pac-Man
Chances: 75%
He's part of Namco (idc what sakurai said), and he's their most iconic character. He has the best chance imo out of all new third party characters (not returning).
Want: 60%
I actually played those Pac-Man platforming games for the PS2 and they weren't that bad, I quite enjoyed them. They were pretty damn tough too. And I think Pac-Man can fit in quite well.

Toon Link: 40%
I believe most people won't like his chances. Wind Waker HD might turn things around though, who knows.

 

[josh bones]

Chances: 80% Most Iconic Namco character. If Namco gets a rep, it has to be him.
Want: 100% Who wouldn't want that yellow guy?(Apparently everyone on this thread)

Toon Link Predictions: 50%

 

[BlitznBurst]

Pac-Man:

Chances - 80%. Pac-Man is an iconic video game character, and a pretty highly requested one at that. Namco working on the game certainly helps his chances, and Sakurai has even acknowledged the character. Also the supposed leak, although I'm not as certain of this as others seem to be. The only thing holding him back is lack of a good moveset.

Want - 30%. I don't really like Pac-Man all that much tbh, much less a Pac-Man with arms and legs.

Toon Link - 40%. He shouldn't even have been in the game in the first place, and lots of people don't like him. So I'd say 40

 

[8-peacock-8]

Chances: 65% - Can go either way.
I love how no one brings up the interview where Sakurai was curious about how Pac-Man could work and instead are using that stupid rumor BS.

Want 90% - My most wanted Namco rep. Yeah. I don't care what anyone else says since i am the only one not really who thinks that Pac-Man would be amazing.

Toon Link: 50%

 

[XenothiumX]

Pac-Man Likelihood: 15%
Pac-Man Want: 65%

Toon Link Prediction: 30%

Nominations:
Krystal (StarFox) x5

 

[Swift Fox]

Pac-man
Likelihood: 10%
1. I think the "leaking" guy just added Pac-man and two others for the lulz, hence his calling the 6 "unlikely predictions".
2. Sakurai wants to limit 3rd party characters.

want: 0%

Nominations:
Krystal x5

 

[Z1GMA]

Well, they've been ignoring Advance Wars for some time.
Hopefully Sami will be "Marching in" soon.

Likelihood: 2 - 3%

Want: 100%

 

[Banjodorf]

Oh! Are we doing Pac-Man now? I can't believe I missed K. Rool day! Damn it (90%, don't be stupid y'all)

Anyway, Pac-Man.

Ugh. 40%. If Namco gets a rep he's totally possible (Lloyd is better) but he's just...meh. I don't care for him and he's just sort of bland, and there.

Want: 0%

Oh also, K. Rool x5 today.

 

[FlareHabanero]

By the way, for those that give ANY third party character anything over 50%, I really hope all of you choke on a chicken bone. You're really pushing the envelope if you're expect any non-Nintendo character to have a really high chance of showing up in Super Smash Bros.

 

[@tomic]

Pac-Man Likelihood 25% - Viable. I think a good number of people are expecting him, even with Sakurai's comment that Namco characters aren't anymore likely to be in the game than any other 3rd party character. He's probably the most likely if there's going to be another 3rd party outside of Megaman and Sonic. On the other hand Pac-Man doesn't really have a major place in Nintendo history like Sonic (main Nintendo/Mario rival for years) or Megaman (had some of the defining games of the 8-bit era on NES) do. On the other hand, Snake didn't entirely fit that bill either so maybe that doesn't even matter. The Neogaf post boosts his chances somewhat, but for all we know the 3 he got right were the ones he actually specifically heard about and the others were inferences he made based on what he had seen and heard (Little Mac could have easily been based on the Boxing Ring stage he probably got wind of). That said, I wouldn't be entirely surprised to see all 6 of those characters in the game.

Want: 25% - Meh. Would not be my personal first choice for a Namco rep, but probably the most likely. Not sure how much he could bring to the table.

Toon Link Prediction: 41% - Some will be huge supporters and others will be huge detractors based on the Spirit Tracks stage. It'll be a big argument over whether his appearance in that stage deconfirms him or not.

 

[3Bismyname]

Likelihood: 70%
want: 100%
Toon Link: 50%

and seriously people should really do a little research before saying Pac-Man has no history with Nintendo. u couldnt be more wrong.

 

[Z1GMA]

Pac Man

Likelihood: 60-70%

Want: -5%

 

[Nitro21]

Pac-Man

Likelihood: 40%

Want: 20%

Toon Link: 33%

 

[Banjodorf]

Oh! I forgot T. Link! Hmm...

I'm gonna say 50%; it depends on several things:

-Sakurai maintains his desire to have two Links in the game.
-He decides between Wind Waker and LBW Link.
-He wants to prune clone movesets or not. I'm saying no on that, because there must always be a Ken character.

I think Toon Link is going to be low-priority, behind all newcomers and veterans, regardless.