Alright, I'm at a computer.
We should try to make this a counter pick.
I doubt they would give comparison cop, seer, or double doctor. Bus driver is possible but there's the chance he'd get the mafia to kill themselves. Armored bodyguard seems the most likely to give town, it's what I'd vote for if I was mafia. I really doubt they'd give us an investigation role. Because of that, the tailor might actually be the best pick for us, as it'd be useless for them unless they gave us an investigation role.
What has me skeptical about this isn't necessarily the idea--most people are either going to vote for the most generally safe pick or the one they think doesn't lose to the single PR we have, so counterpicking on a whole does weigh into some people's expectations. I'm concerned about the conclusion--where do you get the idea that mafia is giving us informatives in a single PR game over protectives? Double Doctor is busted and Gheb lost to Armor Guard that managed to get to lategame in Bardull's(?) most recent game. I do doubt scum gives town seer for what it's worth, given that it's indirect information that can out Mafia without even exposing itself, but Comp Cop? That claims, gets shot the moment it does, and the townie in that situation can get lynched before the mafia does. If that happens on D3 or later, it could win the game for mafia.
All that said, I really just think they gave us Bus Driver because it's clearly the weakest role of the bunch with its only major use being redirecting the kill to someone else.
Poison doesn't delay the kill; it just changes the kill flavor from "killed" to "poisoned". It's more similar to what some people would call a Strongman, but I called it Poisoner to draw attention to that it also is immune to re-directing... "poison" seemed like a more appropriate flavor.
This is the one thing that has me doubting the poisoner simply due to the bus driver being the likeliest choice (but not the guaranteed one). While I'm alright with the idea of a vanilla game, I would prefer an alternative that allows our PR to have some merit. I just don't see one--the only Mafia PR that doesn't screw over the bus driver to some degree is the Tailor and while I think they gave us Bus Drivers, I can see potential scenarios where we got Comp Cop instead, making Tailor the worst possible choice to make. As a result, I think we pick the Poisoner as it's the safest one (no way Mafia gives us the protectives) and play the vanilla game if they gave us Bus Driver.
My order is Detective > Poisoner > Decoy > Tailor > Witch.
We shouldn't presume to know what mafia picked. The primary goal should be to allow mafia the least bit of control regardless of what pr they picked for us. The secondary goal should be to maximize the amount of use or control our pr has regardlesd of what it is.
Detective is the least influential in all cases. It has no control factor and it has the same effect regardless of what our pr is.
Poisoner has no control factor. It essentially negates 3 of our prs, leading to an all vanilla game in the event that one of those were selected.
Tailor has a huge control factor for 2 of our prs and completely useless for the other 3.
Decoy has the same negation element as poisoner but affective against all 5 prs.
Witch gives control to mafia regardless of what our pr is and is the most influential in all cases.
I should say that Detective also works in this regard. Mafia already knows the what role is in the game, so the only thing they'd be using this for is to determine who. Since they have no other abilities, it follows that this information would be for the purpose of getting rid of the pr -- making the game vanilla. The only difference is that a miss at least gives our pr a chance to use their ability.
While I agree with the logic, I don't know if I agree with the conclusion. While the Detective doesn't prevent our PRs from directly acting, it is the one tool that helps Mafia find them and remove all but the Armor Guard from the game the night after they find it. That's effectively the same as giving them control, just in a much less direct manner. By your logic it does effectively make the game vanilla--but so does the Poisoner. The latter does affect 3 roles but 1 definitely isn't in the game, 1 almost definitely isn't in the game, and the last has such a small chance of being useful that I'd be fine giving it to mafia. It may become useful if it somehow survives longer than the Poisoner anyway, especially in mid-lategame scenarios (arguably when the Bus Driver is strongest) and I'd rather play for that than allowing the Bus Driver to be useful early at the cost of giving Mafia a role that helps narrow down who has it and kill that player.
More posts coming up in a bit.