pick yur poison | ovah

[JeXs]

The issue would be that requires a lot of maybes to go one direction.

I'm confident it's that unlikely.

how about we dont chance our luck

 

[Maven89]

Jex worst case scenario is always bad. If we don't give them vengeful, worst case scenario would still be weak doc/misfire vig/mislynch/nk, putting us to 3v5. Then if we mislynch we lose the game. That's basically the exact same scenario.

And in the end i'd rather have perfect information and risk the mafia getting another kill.

 

[JeXs]

Jex worst case scenario is always bad. If we don't give them vengeful, worst case scenario would still be weak doc/misfire vig/mislynch/nk, putting us to 3v5. Then if we mislynch we lose the game. That's basically the exact same scenario.

And in the end i'd rather have perfect information and risk the mafia getting another kill.

how about we stop asking townies to die from lynching scum and getting into lylo on day 3

 

[JeXs]

also having vengeful in lylo guarantees town losing so if we give them a vengeful we absolutely have to somehow find it before lylo

 

[Maven89]

vengeful doesn't really factor into your math because we can be at the exact same scenario without vengeful. Vengeful would only kick us in the ass if we do terribly. If we're doing fine it's not great. They won't have the opportunity to chose when they use it, it's not something they can try to build a strategy around. If it gets to the point that vengeful wins them the game we'd probably have lost it anyways since we'd have to be going on a 4 to 1 ratio to get there. if they bus a scum mate to get vengeful, ****ing great because a 1v1 trade is in our favor.

on the other hand, Janitor can force us to do terribly because we won't know if we're on the right track or not. I don't want to go in blind. I'd rather have the option of increasing my chance of getting Night killed then lose information that we can use to base lynches on. it's how i want to do this.

 

[JeXs]

why would they bus a vengeful i think its so much more likely that they would try to keep the vengeful alive to lylo for a 100% win

on the other hand losing a single flip is nothing major imo we just have everyone claim at L-1 and if they claim VT we know they are either VT or scum. the only thing we lose are their connections. of course this banks on people not playing like idiots and claiming a PR as a VT

 

[JeXs]

also can you just pls vote for jan

 

[JeXs]

also a jan isnt as bad when its expected since we're not taken by surprise when it happens

 

[Maven89]

on the other hand losing a single flip is nothing major imo we just have everyone claim at L-1 and if they claim VT we know they are either VT or scum. the only thing we lose are their connections.

connections and flips, which is the biggest and most useful thing. the role not so much.

scum don't get to pick when they die, they can't throw one in the back of the line so we keep him around

 

[JeXs]

connections and flips, which is the biggest and most useful thing. the role not so much.

scum don't get to pick when they die, they can't throw one in the back of the line so we keep him around

or you can hunt for scum through the way people play instead of relying on ONE slot for connections

its called playing survival

also can you just pls vote for jan

 

[JeXs]

the fact that this phase has gone on for 14 pages is ridiculous pls just vote for jan and get this over with

 

[#HBC | Red Ryu]

Still prefer vengeful at this point.

 

[JeXs]

Still prefer vengeful at this point.

also ryu have you read zens post if you have pls tell me why jan is still so bad

 

[#HBC | Red Ryu]

I did.

Jan sucks because hiding a flip really can **** town over. I think Zen majorly downplayed the bad parts of dealing with a janitor.

 

[JayTheUnseen]

Jaytheunseen why did you like Seal's post?

I agree that your read off him is far too quick to the trigger,and I agree with the questions he asked you.
I also don't like your attempts at rushing this phase,just as I don't like your aggression to anyone who disagrees(nor do I like Zen's)

3v9

assuming weak doc/mason/vig
worst case scenario = mislynch + vig misfires, mason and weak doc targets mafia, we lose 4 members, making it a 3v5
day 2 = we lynch scum, but vengeful flips, we are down to 2v3 assuming vig does not shoot in fear of hitting town
day 2 lylo isnt as bad as a single hidden flip?

There's no way(at least I hope) our PRs wouldn't be so reckless

 

[JeXs]

its not that bad when its expected i think you are downplaying the bad parts of dealing with a vengeful

 

[JeXs]

I agree that your read off him is far too quick to the trigger,and I agree with the questions he asked you.
I also don't like your attempts at rushing this phase,just as I don't like your aggression to anyone who disagrees(nor do I like Zen's)

There's no way(at least I hope) our PRs wouldn't be so reckless

its called bad luck not reckless

 

[~ Gheb ~]

JeXs, your math is wrong because Masonizer doesn't die for visiting scum.

 

[JeXs]

i think you are a little late

 

[~ Gheb ~]

Also that WSC is so absurdly unlikely wtf.

 

[JayTheUnseen]

its called bad luck not reckless

The vigilante just needs to not shoot,I can see the weak doc happening though

 

[JeXs]

Also that WSC is so absurdly unlikely wtf.

thats why its a worst case scenario, unlikely to happen, but terrible situation if it does

The vigilante just needs to not shoot,I can see the weak doc happening though

bad vig then

 

[~ Gheb ~]

@ ~ Gheb ~
have you read this post? if so, pls respond to it since you are so heavily against jan. why did you seem to ignore it completely?

Because it solely focuses on the largely irrelevant aspect of a PR CC scenario and ignores the actual problem.

 

[JeXs]

You mean the hiding of a flip? I don't think that's so bad when town expects it. It's usually bad because it takes people by surprise and they are left not knowing what to do.

 

[Maven89]

Jex why are you so certain they gave us a vig?

 

[Maven89]

You mean the hiding of a flip? I don't think that's so bad when town expects it. It's usually bad because it takes people by surprise and they are left not knowing what to do.

They're left not knowing what to do because they didn't get any information from the previous flip. People aren't shell shocked for multiple real life days because they didn't expect a janitor

 

[JeXs]

It's more of the general consensus. How about you stop focusing on the irrelevant details and vote Jan?

 

[JeXs]

They're left not knowing what to do because they didn't get any information from the previous flip. People aren't shell shocked for multiple real life days because they didn't expect a janitor

The element of surprise is more deadly than you think it is.

 

[~ Gheb ~]

thats why its a worst case scenario, unlikely to happen, but terrible situation if it does

Not "unlikely". Absurdly unlikely. Unlikely to the point where we have to assume a very specific setup to be played in the absolute worst manner imaginable. That's not unlikely. It's unlikely².

Vig doesn't shoot D1 and your whole theory falls flat. Vig shouldn't shoot without ~3 clears or a VERY strong connection anyway.

 

[JeXs]

Not "unlikely". Absurdly unlikely. Unlikely to the point where we have to assume a very specific setup to be played in the absolute worst manner imaginable. That's not unlikely. It's unlikely².

Vig doesn't shoot D1 and your whole theory falls flat. Vig shouldn't shoot without ~3 clears or a VERY strong connection anyway.

Check blazblue for something absurdly unlikely to happen on Night 1.

I think there are people who would disagree with you on that.

You also seem to be ignoring the fact that vengeful getting to lylo means town loses.

 

[Maven89]

But we have control over our play. getting to lylo would be our fault. getting screwed from information wouldn't be. I'd rather gamble on us playing well then anything else.

 

[~ Gheb ~]

You mean the hiding of a flip? I don't think that's so bad when town expects it. It's usually bad because it takes people by surprise and they are left not knowing what to do.

The element of surprise is more deadly than you think it is.

Seriously, what the **** are you talking about. Nobody gives a single **** about the surprise factor. The point is that Janitor removes the most important piece of information for the town. That's litereally the role most contradictory to the town's win condition.

From a town's PoV winning mafia means catching up on scum's information advantage by using its superior numbers. Janitor is literally the worst we can give them.

 

[~ Gheb ~]

You also seem to be ignoring the fact that vengeful getting to lylo means town loses.

What crap. I was the one to introduce that fact to the thread in the first place.

 

[JeXs]

You know what just do whatever you want I could really care less now

 

[JeXs]

If you guys follow Gheb and maven the game is lost btw

 

[~ Gheb ~]

Mislynch + Vig Fail + WDoc Fail + NK = -4 townies

Day 2 starts with 3v5 mylo, regardless of Vengeful Mafiate or not.

Except with a Janitor we wouldn't even know whether it's mylo or not in the first place.

We're not giving them Janitor lol

 

[JeXs]

Except with vengeful we get punished further for being correct but I'm done arguing this nonsense please just do whatever you want

 

[ranmaru]

Unvote vote Vengeful

 

[~ Gheb ~]

If you guys follow Gheb and maven the game is lost btw

Yeah guys, don't listen to the people who actually know what a Janitor is capable of doing to a town. Instead you should follow around dudes who spew out garbage theories about a Janitor's deadly "surprise factor", random PR CC scenarios that will happen once in the game at the absolute maximum and a WCS that's actually largely unaffected by the presence of a Vengful Mafiate and can be trivialized by town not playing like *******.

Good call.

 

[JeXs]

That's not actually why I said that but good try