Smash 4 is not going to die.
However, the competitive smash 4 community is going to shrink and become smaller and more focused, before things can improve.
The issue is extremely simple : Scrubs. Too many of them.
Unfortunately with fighting games / smash brothers we see this trend time and time again... let me explain the cycle using smash (melee/post melee) as an example.
#1 - Melee is released. Everyone loves it, everyone has fun playing... small tournaments start to spring up, talent starts to develop.
#2 - Players begin to argue rulesets.. items on or off? 4 stocks or 5? etc. Stronger players try to eliminate RNG as much as possible for a fair contest which is generally agreed upon... weaker players in light of not having random elements that win them the game occasionally now lose 100% of the time to stronger players. Instead of improving their game, they start to resent competitive smash... because they're scrubs and would rather blame others for losing instead of getting better at something.
#3 A new smash game is announced. *THIS* is where **** really hits the fan... Brawl was an absolute nightmare... although a big majority of the arguments between melee and brawl were my fault when I was being an idiot back in 2008.
The argument from the scrubby side is simple : "You guys ONLY beat us because you use glitches and cheat. If melee wasn't broken with wavecheating glitches I would beat you. It's your fault that I don't want to improve at the game.... You just wait until Brawl / Smash 4 / Smash 5 / Smash 6 comes out. Sakurai is on our side and he's going to make it so you guys can't cheat"
The argument from competitive players is simple but unfortunately a lot of elitism is thrown in which causes us to lose credibility : "No. You lose because you have the wrong mentality and you are not playing to win, you are playing to make excuses and have created unwinnable scenarios in your mind"
#4 New smash game released.
This, ladies and gentleman is where we are presently with Sm4sh
For some STUPID reason, scrub fighting game players believe with absolute certainty that if a game is NEW and has not been "exploited" by pro players, that they have a chance of winning all the time and being the best players... so at the inception of a new fighting game they crawl out of the woodworks to come ruin tournaments with their Johns, excuses, and general scrub mentality.
I see it all over the place on r/smashbros. "Diddy kong is too strong" "How do you beat SPAMMY players! Projectiles r cheep"
The reality of Smash 4's situation is that about 50% or possibly MORE of the competitive players DO NOT have the mentality of a competitive gamer.
The good news? This is normal, this always happens. And a year from now, that 50% is not going to be playing the game anymore.. they're going to get fed up, figure out a universal excuse as to why they can't win, and stop going to tournaments, or putting in their 2 cents on what the rules should be.
Smash 4 is not going to die. It's going to take some time but I truly believe it will become better over the years.
- Dylan_Tnga