This time, we want to address some frequently asked questions and dive a little deeper into the results.
Frequently Asked Questions
Why did the 4BR release a tier list only a few days before a new patch?
A tier list isn’t created overnight and there is never a perfect time. We started creation of this first tier list back in December, on a build that left the majority of the cast relatively untouched and introduced only one new character. We ended up extending the process to include Genesis 3 as a case study and were already close to the final release when the announcement of the 1.1.4 patch happened.
We always knew that there were two more characters on the way, which we didn’t consider too major a problem in the sense that a tier list is a part of history that gets updated over time. Ideally, this would not have been the first list, but patches and major tournaments kept happening too quickly on short notice to find a period of relative stability.
Does the 1.1.4 patch invalidate the tier list?
For the most part, no. Most characters did not change significantly, as can be seen in the patch notes for 1.1.4. The biggest buffs befell Toon Link, Falco, Marth/Lucina, Roy, Ike and Little Mac, while Bowser lost his kill confirm from upthrow at higher percentages as the most significant nerf.
It is too early to judge the impact Bayonetta and Corrin have on the metagame, and we won’t have a major tournament to look at until Pound 2016 in April. The alternative to handling the tier list the way we did would have been postponing the project for multiple months, at which point we would have to consider postponing it further to include the onslaught of summer events.
Why is my favourite character considered low tier?
Besides the fact that very few individuals will 100% agree with any given tier list, it seems like many people are hung up on what it meant to be a low tier in other Smash games, with Brawl being the most direct comparison. Smash 4 is a relatively balanced game for various reasons, and we have a tournament example of a top player beating another top player in a matchup of the worst character in the game against the best character in the game. By definition, some characters have to be on the low end of the distribution, and even a character with various tools is at the bottom if 50 other characters are considered better.
When will the tier list be updated?
We are aiming for an update after the summer events, which puts the tentative date somewhere in August.
Analysis of DLC characters and regional differences
Standard deviations were large across the board; the degree of consensus was low outside of some characters at the top and bottom. Some people suspected that standard deviations would be particularly high for the more recent DLC additions, but this was not necessarily the case. There were, however, some interesting regional differences and many community comments regarding the DLC characters, so we will zoom in on them in turn.
@Shaya compiled the votes among Japanese and European voters. Keep in mind that there were only 6 Japanese and 8 European voters, making these numbers indicative of trends, but unfit for sweeping statements.
Zero Suit Samus | 20.0 | 0.0 | 0.0
Sheik | 20.0 | 0.0 | 0.0
Cloud | 19.5 | 0.764 | 0.5
Sonic | 19.17 | 0.687 | 0.333
Rosalina | 19.17 | 0.373 | 0.0
Meta Knight | 19.0 | 0.0 | 0.167
Villager | 18.17 | 1.067 | 0.833
Diddy Kong | 18.0 | 0.577 | 0.167
Pikachu | 17.5 | 0.5 | 0.5
Ryu | 17.33 | 1.106 | 0.167
Fox | 17.33 | 0.471 | 0.0
Ness | 16.83 | 0.687 | 0.5
Mario | 16.67 | 0.943 | 0.167
Pit | 16.5 | 0.764 | 0.167
Captain Falcon | 16.0 | 1.155 | 0.5
Dark Pit | 15.0 | 1.528 | 1.0
Yoshi | 14.5 | 0.957 | 0.5
Toon Link | 14.0 | 1.155 | 0.5
Peach | 13.83 | 1.344 | 0.167
Wario | 13.83 | 0.373 | 0.0
Lucario | 13.5 | 0.957 | 0.333
Olimar | 13.33 | 1.491 | 0.167
R.O.B. | 12.5 | 0.957 | 0.833
Bowser | 12.33 | 1.795 | 0.167
Duck Hunt Dog | 12.0 | 1.826 | 0.333
Pac-Man | 12.0 | 1.0 | 0.0
Luigi | 11.5 | 1.118 | 0.5
Mega Man | 11.5 | 0.957 | 0.0
Mewtwo | 11.17 | 0.687 | 0.333
Shulk | 11.0 | 2.38 | 0.167
Mr. Game & Watch | 10.83 | 1.344 | 0.167
Greninja | 10.17 | 1.951 | 0.667
Robin | 9.67 | 1.106 | 0.5
Ike | 9.5 | 0.764 | 0.167
Donkey Kong | 9.17 | 1.572 | 0.333
Link | 8.5 | 1.803 | 0.667
Bowser Jr. | 8.5 | 1.5 | 0.0
Dr. Mario | 7.67 | 2.494 | 0.833
Mii Gunner | 7.33 | 2.211 | 0.333
Lucas | 7.17 | 1.675 | 0.167
King Dedede | 7.17 | 0.687 | 0.0
Palutena | 7.0 | 1.155 | 0.167
Marth | 6.0 | 0.816 | 1.0
Little Mac | 5.83 | 2.034 | 0.167
Roy | 5.67 | 1.795 | 0.167
Wii Fit Trainer | 5.33 | 1.106 | 0.333
Falco | 5.0 | 1.633 | 0.333
Mii Brawler | 4.83 | 1.462 | 0.167
Charizard | 4.67 | 1.7 | 0.167
Samus | 4.33 | 1.795 | 0.333
Kirby | 4.33 | 1.374 | 0.0
Lucina | 3.83 | 1.462 | 0.5
Ganondorf | 3.83 | 1.462 | 0.0
Jigglypuff | 2.67 | 1.106 | 1.167
Zelda | 1.83 | 0.373 | 0.833
Mii Swordsman | 1.17 | 0.373 | 0.667
Sheik | 20.0 | 0.0 | 0.0
Zero Suit Samus | 19.5 | 0.5 | 0.5
Rosalina | 18.83 | 0.687 | 0.667
Pikachu | 18.67 | 0.745 | 0.167
Ryu | 18.0 | 0.577 | 0.667
Sonic | 17.5 | 1.118 | 0.5
Mario | 17.33 | 0.943 | 0.167
Fox | 17.17 | 1.344 | 0.167
Meta Knight | 17.17 | 1.067 | 0.0
Diddy Kong | 17.17 | 0.687 | 0.0
Villager | 16.5 | 1.5 | 0.667
Yoshi | 16.33 | 0.745 | 0.167
Cloud | 16.33 | 0.471 | 0.0
Ness | 15.83 | 0.687 | 0.5
Captain Falcon | 14.5 | 0.5 | 1.333
Luigi | 14.17 | 1.772 | 0.333
Toon Link | 13.67 | 0.745 | 0.5
Greninja | 13.5 | 2.566 | 0.167
R.O.B. | 13.33 | 2.055 | 0.167
Peach | 13.17 | 2.115 | 0.167
Wario | 13.17 | 1.344 | 0.0
Dark Pit | 12.67 | 1.491 | 0.5
Pit | 12.5 | 1.5 | 0.167
Lucario | 11.83 | 1.462 | 0.667
Mega Man | 11.67 | 2.625 | 0.167
Donkey Kong | 11.33 | 2.494 | 0.333
Olimar | 11.17 | 2.478 | 0.167
Ike | 10.83 | 2.672 | 0.333
Bowser | 10.0 | 3.606 | 0.833
Pac-Man | 10.0 | 1.291 | 0.0
Mr. Game & Watch | 8.83 | 1.951 | 1.167
Roy | 8.67 | 2.749 | 0.167
Robin | 8.0 | 3.109 | 0.667
King Dedede | 8.0 | 2.53 | 0.0
Wii Fit Trainer | 8.0 | 2.16 | 0.0
Mewtwo | 7.5 | 1.893 | 0.5
Bowser Jr. | 7.17 | 2.544 | 0.333
Dr. Mario | 7.17 | 1.772 | 0.0
Shulk | 7.0 | 1.732 | 0.167
Link | 6.83 | 2.339 | 0.167
Falco | 6.67 | 2.925 | 0.167
Marth | 6.67 | 2.494 | 0.0
Kirby | 6.33 | 4.028 | 0.333
Duck Hunt Dog | 6.33 | 1.374 | 0.0
Little Mac | 6.0 | 3.109 | 0.333
Mii Brawler | 6.0 | 3.098 | 0.0
Lucas | 5.33 | 1.886 | 0.667
Palutena | 4.5 | 0.764 | 0.833
Lucina | 4.33 | 2.211 | 0.167
Charizard | 3.67 | 2.625 | 0.667
Samus | 3.5 | 1.979 | 0.167
Jigglypuff | 3.17 | 2.339 | 0.333
Mii Gunner | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.767
Ganondorf | 2.17 | 0.687 | 0.233
Mii Swordsman | 2.0 | 1.549 | 0.167
Zelda | 1.17 | 0.373 | 0.833
At the time of voting, Cloud was the most recent addition to the cast. We were fortunate to immediately receive a major showcase of the character at Genesis 3, where various Japanese players in attendance mained or secondaried him. Although he mainly dominated doubles and ended up not making it into singles top 8, players like Komorikiri showed that the swordsman was not to be trifled with.
It is perhaps unsurprising then that our group of 6 Japanese voters put Cloud at #3 on average, a stark contrast to his #12 placing in the final list and #13 placing among European voters. Time will tell which is closer to the truth, but with powerhouses like Mew2King picking him up in the western hemisphere as well, he will no doubt continue to stay relevant. For further insights and expert opinions, you can read this article that was released earlier this month.
Lucas is noteworthy for his tier list placement having the fifth highest standard deviation among the entire cast; there is not much consensus on the character. The overall tier list put him at #36, while Japanese voters put him at a somewhat lower #40. The disparity in opinions is even more apparent when Europe comes into play: the European voters placed Lucas at #47, on average.
Although Europe has no high level Lucas players, as opposed to the USA with Pink Fresh and Japan with Taiheita, the character seems to have a general representation problem. When considering statistics such as the SmashBoards rankings, Lucas ranks poorly in representation at all levels of play and is found among clone characters like Dr. Mario and Lucina.
On that note, one can speculate that Lucas is largely overshadowed by his high-tier franchise counterpart Ness, who boasts more top-level mains, a quicker grab in conjunction with a lethal back-throw, and better aerials. Lucas does have an additional recovery option in a tether, a frame 2 jab, good followups from his (unfortunately, laggy) grab, and aerials that flow together well. This toolkit could very well allow him to surpass his low-tier peers in the right person's hands, and we hope the character will be fleshed out more.
Mewtwo was significantly buffed in the 1.1.3 patch, with moves connecting to each other more easily and less endlag on his aerials. Despite several people moving him up over the voting process as a result of these buffs, we have to own up to the fact that the 4BR does not have much representation for Mewtwo among membership. The Japanese voted him at #29, while Europe put him at #36 and the finalized list at #37.
Although he did not make a splash at Genesis 3 and we have already established that he is a clear cut above bottom tier, it could turn out that his buffs were underrated in the long run. We were happy to get some insights from 4BR member and established high level player @TheReflexWonder, who recently invested a lot of time in the character.
I'm -really- excited about Mewtwo in the new patch. He is undoubtedly the big winner there, getting multiple hitbox size increases, higher damage/knockback, significant aerial landing lag reductions, a bigger projectile he can now reasonably use in the air, walk/run speed increase from #21 to ~#10...I feel this character went from an afterthought to an actually-scary, tournament-viable threat.
Changes to aerials push his punish game a great distance. At any percent, hitting with N-Air and landing before the final hit gives you at least +6 frame advantage (ignoring increased numbers from potential Rage and frame syncing), meaning that N-Air -> D-Tilt is a true combo that can loop into itself as long as you have space to do it and the opponent isn't at especially high percents. It's also a confirm into Grab at all percents, and with decent Rage numbers, you can combo that into U-Tilt -> U-Smash at KO percents; all of these options are generally easier/better on fastfallers. The hits also last for 34 frames altogether with only five frames of endlag, making it a reliable way to punish airdodges in many situations. Two-frame gaps between the hits make it so you get hit if you drop shield early or try to buffer an option before he lands.
F-Air got faster and has four fewer frames of landing lag. Shorthop airdodge -> fastfall F-Air is -6 on shield/+1 on shield drop, having great synergy with D-Tilt and empty landing grab. Hitting with it at low-mid percents in that scenario will generally get you another follow-up, usually another aerial (F-Air strings are not uncommon, and it sets up for N-Air loops at low percents).
U-Air got significant BKB and now works a lot like Falco's, comboing into itself and other aerials when moving upward with it, as well as making it a reasonably KO option. Reduced landing lag makes it safe on shield when crossing people up.
While he can still struggle against characters applying relentless pressure, his punish game, large hitboxes, and above-average movement speed all carry him up, and I feel that will become more apparent over time.
Roy had the second highest standard deviation for this tier list, second only to Kirby. While the overall tier list and European voters put him at #32, the Japanese voters put him at #45, further indicating the lack of consensus on the fiery swordsman. Roy has had one of the more interesting runs so far, and we got Fire Emblem enthusiast @Shaya to elaborate on his position.
When Roy first came out, there was a lot of hype through social media and the community in general--"Roy's our Boy" syndrome perhaps. People were expecting a monster, but the hype was deflated shortly after and there hasn't been anything significant to change people's stances on him.
What has driven the (initial) high opinion on Roy is the very easy comparison one can make with Marth. If you directly compare their specs and moveset, Roy wins significantly in terms of mobility in addition to better frame data, weight, damage, kill power, throw game and sword disjoints (keep in mind this was before the latest patch). While Marth and Roy aren't a complete subset of one another in matchups or moveset, the positive contrasts lead Roy's supporters to feel he can more readily compete against the top tiers, who generally have high mobility and damage output of their own.
The argument goes both ways however; with his more vulnerable recovery, less emphasis on reward for good spacing and his fast faller specs making him a lot more combo-prone, he often has a worse time in matchups both swordsmen struggle in. This inability to have Roy considered on his own merits has muddied opinions on him, though the same can be argued for Lucas and base cast members like Dr. Mario and Lucina.
With the latest patch (1.1.4) Roy received some love on his aerial landing lag, increasing his potency on his main zoning and damaging tools. This will definitely help him out, but won't extensively change his matchup spread. At the same time, Marth received considerable buffs and the argument between the two will be renewed, with a lot more weight behind Marth to close the gap, or widen it further in the Japanese perception.
Ryu ended up at a very high #4, leading the pack of characters right after top tier. Once again we find noteworthy regional differences, with the Japanese putting Ryu at #10 on average, while European voters considered him #5 after Pikachu. The 4BR is fortunate to count @Trela among its ranks, one of the players pushing the character the hardest. He had this to say:
There's a lot to consider when figuring out where to place a character on a tier list, from results, to frame data, to match-up spreads, you name it. But something you should always take note of, I believe, is a character's punish game. This is where Ryu shines the most. One simple screw-up in neutral and you take an unreasonable amount of percent, or better yet, get KO'd incredibly early. The best part? Just about everything he has is guaranteed. If I had to describe competitive Smash 4 in one word, it would be just that. And this is not something that's only exclusive to Ryu, of course. You'll find that every character in top tier has something of the sort that works at a certain percentage range that makes them so deadly to play against, and there's a reason they do it better than the characters below them on the rest of the tier list.
To go into a little more of why I rate the punish game in a character so highly, well, let's face it. We're not all perfect. Never can we play at our 100% best, and if we did, I'm sure we'd all be playing Sheik by now, timing each other out because no one would ever be able to land a hit on anyone with anything other than Needles. But that can't be farther from the truth. When you think about Ryu's weaknesses and what holds him back as a competitor, you think, "Oh, well he has a hard time catching someone who's keeping him out and running away from him." Well, you're not entirely wrong. But something I've learned over my time with playing Ryu, over my time with experiencing many different types of match-ups and playstyles, is this:
You can only run away for so long.
So long before you put yourself in a bad spot where you can no longer run. So long before you mess up. So long before you lose the lead. Make no mistake, it's going to happen. And it's going to happen more often than you'd like to think.
While not a DLC character, Greninja is worth mentioning for being another character with large regional differences in perception. The tier list puts him at #25, while Japan puts him at #32 and Europe puts him at #18. The latter continent has three notable Greninja mains in @istudying (the Netherlands), Elexiao (France) and Eddy (Germany). We asked iStudying, who is a 4BR member, to share some insights into Greninja's current situation.
ConclusionHey everyone, My name is iStudying. I am ranked second in Smash 4 in the Netherlands, right after Mr-R. I have been playing competitive Smash Bros. since Brawl (2008), where I mained Diddy Kong. When Smash 4 came out I immediately started maining Greninja, because he was different and his playing style fit me.
At the moment Greninja is ranked low Mid Tier (E), but I know that he is a much better character than that. I feel like people just haven’t seen enough Greninja players in action. As someone who played him since the beginning, I think some of his disadvantaged matchups are Sheik and Fox, but even those are 40:60 at worst.
Greninja has a notable flaw, which is that he has to commit with almost everything he does. However, he also has a lot of potential with great mobility, killing power, setups etc. By mastering him, you will not only notice the fun and flashiness of the character, but also reap the benefits this character has relative to other characters in the game.
Greninja is underrated and people should look into him more. I expect him to rise in the tier list and if you want to see what this character is capable of, look out for players like Some (Japan), Venia (America) and myself (Europe).
Splashing out.
We hope these explanations have shed some light on why the tier list was released when it was and provided food for thought on some of the more hotly debated characters. With (now) 58 characters on the roster and many of them still underexplored, or only dominant in certain regions, it will be interesting to see where people take their characters and how international clashes turn out. As always, we'll be looking forward to your thoughts in the comments below.
Thanks go out to @Shaya for providing data on votes per region and @Zigsta for various contributions and ideas.