Oasis Mafia - Over!

[BoomFrog]

I still think this game gets extremely tough/wonky if Boom isnt a wolf
#1684 I dont know how I feel about it

Now you see why I feel the game is so wonky.

 

[BoomFrog]

If you can see where he's coming from, why does it frustrate you? LOL

That sounds like a weak "haha!" I'm trying to push but I'm genuinely curious. What's there to deal with? Like what do you make of it? NAI? I think it's town because if Ninja was still here the thread would still be going in circles.

Because if everyone understood my point and if I had the respect that I had on the xkcd forums then we could have skipped the Ninja lynch and had a more interesting lynch D1. But like you said, it's understandable that Ran and wiisp wanted to resolve the issue from their perspective.

 

[BoomFrog]

UtopianPoyzin Hey man, you want to like actual play the game? Why did you disappear at the end of D1?

 

[LaserGuy]

UP:

Spoiler

-I like his opening. Feels like he wants to progress the game. The vote switch is NAI. I was reading him as pretty strong Town at this stage and the sequence up to #93 still looks okay to me.
-So the list in #95 is one of the bones of contention with this slot. #94 says I'm slightly more scummy than null at 3rd to the bottom. Some of the positions here are weird... Jackrito and Maven have barely posted at this point I think.
-Jumps pretty quickly to 3DS as scum in #149-167.
-The analysis in #180 seems to ignore the fact that 3DS is quite evidently a newbie and would not be thinking in these sophisticated terms. The idea that it was newbie Town or newbie scum just made a mistake never seems to have occurred to him.
-#201. I don't like this case on Sabrar. There's nothing in Sabrar's tone in his early posting to suggest that he is trying to be serious here.
-#290. The no-reasoning vote that is never really followed up on bothers me. In #457 he completely drops the point without any real explanation.
-UP's defense to Sabrar's case in #372 is marginal. He focuses on that Sabar uses the word "weird" as though Sabrar did not follow up immediately with what he found problematic with the point. And anyway, sometimes things aren't obviously Town or scum motivated. Sometimes they are just "weird".
-UP doesn't seem to understand the issue with the "old" list in #95. UP seems experienced so I find it hard to believe he wouldn't realize why people are giving him a hard time about this. I do get the feeling that he threw most of the middle names there more or less at random and UP is after-the-fact rationalizing it. Most of his reads in his new list are really difficult to understand as well. The ordering in this list does not seem that convincing either. Wiisp and Sabrar do a good job covering the problems with this. I don't like in #588, #595 that UP appears to be evading Sabrar's line of questioning on this by focusing on word choice (post hoc) without actually addressing the point itself. UP trying hard to change the subject in #600.

This entire sequence is where I feel UP is being the most slippery. I think he's probably a good enough player to know that there's a problem with the early read list and is trying to dodge the issue.

-#472 is bad. BoomFrog's question (about the non-vote) is completely legitimate and UP ought to be able to provide an explanation for it. His later attempt at explaining this is that it was a sort of reaction test, except it doesn't really work as a reaction test when you preface it with "no supplied reasoning is intentional". The only reactions he got were when people realized that "no supplied reasoning" actually meant "no reasoning". UP tries to explain this again over 1000 posts later, in #1558, and doesn't really line up with his earlier comments (which were more that he wanted to stir the pot than anything else).
-I hate reads like #581. WIFOMy and vacuous. Rescinded later in #601 for similarly bad reasons.
-UP peaces out of D1.

-I'm really skeptical of the generous Maven read. But at least UP actually has a reason for why he thinks this.
-UP's speculation in D2 about multiball and/or indies mildly pings me. My impression is that Town doesn't usually jump to these sorts of speculations without evidence.

To me the most problematic part is that UP's reads don't seem to be well-motivated. Sabrar and Wiisp did a good job of taking this apart in the middle of D1 with reference to the early reads list, but even the later ones seem hard for me to follow how his ordering is produced. UP is very evasive on this point.

Putting him as likely scum. I think I'd prefer UP over BoomFrog given the choice.

I want to take a close look at Pokechu next. I've been skimming a lot of their stuff because their font color hurts my eyes and I don't see an easy way to change it. Won't get to this until tomorrow though.

 

[Sabrar]

Jackrito

This is his latest read from D1, votes Boom, later votes Ninja, moves Wiisp to town.
Early D2 there are a bunch of small posts, all of them NAI as he's just chatting without offering hard stances on anyone.
He starts contributing in #1406. His explanations feel natural rather than forced, he is consistent with earlier content.
Calls out UP in #1561 but changes opinion in #1572. #1619 has a non-town list with UP as the least townie among the players he won't focus on during reread.
His reread is good. It actually shows how he reevaluates things on his own, rather than allowing himself to be convinced. He has a good progression on me that doesn't feel planned and he explains his reasons which are new and not just parroting back things others have said. He also changes stance on UP, it feels like this is mostly influenced by Ranmaru who points to specific thing and Jack agrees with him in the end. I wish that Ran didn't interfere here and saved the questions after the reread was done, would have been more informative if Jack notices these things on his own.

Summary: apart from UP I don't see in his views any attempt at 'blending in' or to force an agenda. He has good progression which is more likely to come from actually rereading and reevaluating. My only concern is how his stance shifted wrt UP and we don't know how much that was because of Ran's questions.
Likely town but there's a possibility of being UP's buddy. Should UP flip town at any point I think that would clear Jack because I don't think scum would approach the slot the same way.

 

[Sabrar]

Started reading LaserGuy shortly after I finished my thoughts on Jack so #1430 took me by surprise (though it's based on D1 content which I haven't reviewed). Anyway finishing LG first (and coming back to #1430 later) because it seems like less work.

LaserGuy

Last read-list from D1. Updated early D2. Only significant change is Jack moving to bottom. I guess #1430 is a result of a reread during the night because even at the end of D2 LG liked his tone. This is NAI because it could equally come from town doing their homework and scum looking for a new target to push. Only nitpick I have is that based on the rest of #1430 I would have expected Boom and Z25 to change places.
I actually like that his evaluation of Boom's content in #1601 leads to no solid conclusions, LG knows that Boom can play in this fashion as town as well and is understandably cautious. I would be suspicious if LG had a strong lean either way based on gut with little to no obvious evidence.
I think LG making the effort and searching for our previous scum-chat is town-motivated, scum either won't bother with the effort or if they do look it up in hope they can find something that they can use they would either not post it if they weren't successful or they would make a big case out of it if they think it might have a chance. LG had a single sentence as a comment to it and I think his 'feel' is very much open to personal interpretation.
I am biased wrt his reads on UP. They reference a lot of stuff that has already been said and they are safe in the sense that consensus by that point seemed to point more to UP. However the conclusion is consistent with his read earlier on me when this wasn't the case.

Summary: I like his D2 content but I will have to review his case on Jack. Provisionally town.

 

[Wiisp]

## UP

 

[Wiisp]

UtopianPoyzin
come play the game, hello?

 

[Wiisp]

Sabrar
so where are the wolves?

 

[Sabrar]

Sabrar
so where are the wolves?

Why ask now when I've only reviewed 2 so far? Currently I still have you, Ran and Z25 as town, so within {UP; Boom; Pokechu}. I would start with UP but I'm fine with a Boom lynch today as well.

 

[Wiisp]

hmm seems Like I thought your above post was hedging on the possibility of UP being town
when it was actually a town lean on Lasorguy
that's where my question came from

like I said before, I want everyone's read on UP and Boom

 

[Jackrito]

hmm seems Like I thought your above post was hedging on the possibility of UP being town
when it was actually a town lean on Lasorguy
that's where my question came from

like I said before, I want everyone's read on UP and Boom

Well you have mine. I want UP to answer my question on when I became scum to him atm.

 

[Sabrar]

Coming back to #1430:

Their vote on 3DS is very opportunistic. He was reading 3DS as unlikely to be scum in #263, #356, #418, then when he sees that you are serious about pushing Ninja, flips his opinion of him and supports the lynch.

I behaved very similarly wrt Ninja. You called me out as well so at least you're consistent. But describing the vote as opportunistic is to view it from scum!Jack's pov only. You do not consider the possibility of town!Jack here.

He is being deliberately slippery/hedgy in his analysis to avoid committing to any strong positions.

I can see why people don't like #54. I disagree but my argument ties heavily into my 'dumbest post ever' so I'm not sure if we should discuss it right now.
I can also see why #155 and #314 would be considered as hedging but it's early D1, being unsure about your reads is not necessarily bad.
#356 has an ordered T-S list, with explanations given for the most townie and most scummy people. Yes, some people are null but including that post in a list described in the quote above is wrong.
I can fully agree with the sentiment described in #621. It's not hedging, it's bewilderment about the slot.

I don't like either part of LG's case because it's the same thing Ranmaru does. He's viewing the things from one specific pov with the conclusion already in mind. He's explaining why scum!Jack behaves in a certain way, instead of starting from the content and explain why it does not make sense from town!Jack.

 

[ranmaru]

Z25 Set aside the role read. Tell me what you think of Boom / UP's recent play. If the lynch were between the two, who would you lean towards and why?

 

[Wiisp]

I need to focus on other stuff for a bit, so like I'm gunna just leave this up to Ranmaru for now

ranmaru
Make sure everyone gives a read on UP/Boom

 

[ranmaru]

Pokechu Please answer the same question after Z responds.

 

[BoomFrog]

Xivii MODPROD UP?

 

[Z25]

Z25 Set aside the role read. Tell me what you think of Boom / UP's recent play. If the lynch were between the two, who would you lean towards and why?

this is actually something i was starting to consider myself.

It’s already been discussed but Up’s reads made little sense and felt made up, the fact he disappeared when he thought he was cleared and has again disappeared is odd but there’s little reason for this time when he isn’t being as town read as he would like.

In the event that Laser is scum like I think is possible, an Up team makes some sense given he bought up scum in the neighborhood. Perhaps the goal was to try and lynch the other two neighbors but that fell sort of flat if it was their goal.

In terms of Book, he’s done a lot of post liking but hearing more on why he liked them would be nice. He’s been more active more today. A lot of his ideas and points tie into the idea that he wants to have his word feel more important. I can kinda of see him actually being town with some of his posts. I can’t see scum putting that much wine out there when there are other discussions going around on other players. I could be wrong, but Boom seems to ha e played a lot so I think it’s less likely Scum boom plays this way. I think he is likelier just struggling with all the new players but doing slightly better then 3ds I’m handling it.

I could be totally wrong but that’s my opinion currently. Not enough to town read him, but I wouldn’t put him as top scum just yet.

So if it came down to these two, I’d probably vote Up

 

[UtopianPoyzin]

Hi!

 

[BoomFrog]

Hi!

I really hope this is about to be followed by a super long post and you're just in the middle of writing it.

 

[BoomFrog]

In the event that Laser is scum like I think is possible, an Up team makes some sense given he bought up scum in the neighborhood. Perhaps the goal was to try and lynch the other two neighbors but that fell sort of flat if it was their goal.

I think if UP is scum then he doesn't bring up the scum-in-neighboorhood theory if he has a buddy in there. Honestly, if UP flips scum I'm going to assume there's no scummates in there.

In terms of Book, he’s done a lot of post liking but hearing more on why he liked them would be nice.

I'm liking posts when I agree with someone's thinking. Would picking through and selecting quotes and saying "I like this" help you read me? Basically everyone who's posted seems townie, and my read of UP as scum and PoE pokechou as his buddy is only getting solidified.

 

[Sabrar]

Prododge attempts will not be counted as content.

##UtopianPoyzin

 

[ranmaru]

I think by now it's obvious that UP has no intention to help town. The only motivation I can see is for him to take the heat, and get lynched before his own mate. I don't think this would be done as a [2 set] team since that puts quite a burden on a lone buddy. With a [3 set] there is more space to try such a strategy. I'm open to considering his lynch, but only with the condition that Boom is lynched the next day.

 

[ranmaru]

Fair enough. How about, if UP flips town and you die, I'll vote myself at wiisps command. And vice versa, if wiisp dies I'll vote myself at your discretion. I just want to survive long enough to do a good analysis before I die. It's looking more like we have only 2 mafia, which means we can still have 3 misslynches and win and I'd like to leave you guys with good info after my death.

If that is the case, why don't you have that analysis already made? It's Day 2. Why wait until Day 3 for the good info? Also, why are you relying on poe?

 

[Z25]

I think if UP is scum then he doesn't bring up the scum-in-neighboorhood theory if he has a buddy in there. Honestly, if UP flips scum I'm going to assume there's no scummates in there.


I'm liking posts when I agree with someone's thinking. Would picking through and selecting quotes and saying "I like this" help you read me? Basically everyone who's posted seems townie, and my read of UP as scum and PoE pokechou as his buddy is only getting solidified.

I suppose that is fair, as I said it’s a play they would maybe make if they thought they could pull it off but they just as easily couldn’t. I could also see UP Pokechu but that’s a big thing in itself. I thought it was Up pokechu last game and was wrong, so I don’t know if I could read that team right. At least here it’s not the final day, so I’ll have a lot more time to look at them.

If that is the case, why don't you have that analysis already made? It's Day 2. Why wait until Day 3 for the good info? Also, why are you relying on poe?

I didn’t see that quote before but I think I have an idea in that claim’s meaning assuming it’s not a fake one by scum.

I could speculate more but boom should answer first, it does sound like a soft claim though.

 

[ranmaru]

Role is irrelevant; I'm asking why he hasn't made any analysis. Question for you Z: Does it look like he's analyzing and solving?

 

[BoomFrog]

UP being scummy was mostly not PoE, figuring out who else is scum has been PoE because I haven't seen any other signs of scummyness (aside from Sabrar, but I feel that's resolved). A reasonable explanation for that is that the second scum is Maven/Pokechuan and if there's a 3rd scum they are indy. Another plausible explanation is that the remaining scum are "deepwolves" which is why I'm on the chopping block and I get that.

The analysis I wanted to do is a vote pattern scum buddy analysis. It doesn't work very well before D3. It's especially hard when the only lynch was uncontested. Also, the analysis is fairly unnessesary if UP is lynched before me and flips mafia. And the analysis wouldn't prove UP isn't scum, it would just highlight other options.

I guess, sort answer is, I think I'm right and I'm lazy.

 

[ranmaru]

Z25 Can you explain to me again why you have Laser as scum, from his individual play?

 

[Z25]

Role is irrelevant; I'm asking why he hasn't made any analysis. Question for you Z: Does it look like he's analyzing and solving?

I think things like his Wisp post compilation where he mentioned how he thought Wisp was town day one. He has some decent contributions and posts that feel like he is trying at least to some degree. Like I find his attempts better then Ups for example. Could be scum staying low but attempting to look townie through light solving. I also think he’s tried a bit more then laser. But that’s because of quantity over quality per say. Boom has more posts I believe so he’s had more content towards that then Laser imo, even if not every boom post is solve related.

Z25 Can you explain to me again why you have Laser as scum, from his individual play?

He mostly just shows up with a post or two and leaves.He hasn’t contributed as much as I think he could or should given there’s a lot he can talk about. Not commenting in things when asked like the Boom Discussions he was asked about.

Combined with a very odd tactic it’s just as out of norm as Up’s role is. Which strikes me as weird behavior and I still strongly disagree with the reasoning for the emoji usage and can’t see town doing it. If I’m wrong then I’m wrong but that’s my thoughts given past mafia experiences and seeing or being in similar circumstances

 

[ranmaru]

I think his activity levels is consistent with Dr. Seuss Mafia. You agree to my point on him not commenting relating to Boom, yet you have Boom as null. I'm curious why you still agree with my point in that case. Also, why haven't you commented on #1725?

 

[ranmaru]

I mean #1726.

 

[Z25]

I think his activity levels is consistent with Dr. Seuss Mafia. You agree to my point on him not commenting relating to Boom, yet you have Boom as null. I'm curious why you still agree with my point in that case. Also, why haven't you commented on #1725?

Got a link to that? I’m not familiar with Boom enough to say I strongly believe one way or another. He’s Null because he is slightly less scummy then my other reads in the scum pool, and he is very far off from being full town. Again I believe 2 scum is likely with a potential third party. If I opened my list for 3 as the team I would put Boom there, and I would considering dropping Up there too.

There’s just a lot surrounding those slots. I feel better on reading Up because I have more experience there, but I’m also second guessing myself there too a little because I misread him poorly last game. So today I’m trying to listen to all sides and see how I feel more by the end of the day.

 

[ranmaru]

Dr. Seuss Mafia. I mean, why do you agree with the point that Laser avoiding to comment = Laser-Scum. How does that reflect on Boom's alignment?

 

[Z25]

Started reading LaserGuy shortly after I finished my thoughts on Jack so #1430 took me by surprise (though it's based on D1 content which I haven't reviewed). Anyway finishing LG first (and coming back to #1430 later) because it seems like less work.

LaserGuy

Last read-list from D1. Updated early D2. Only significant change is Jack moving to bottom. I guess #1430 is a result of a reread during the night because even at the end of D2 LG liked his tone. This is NAI because it could equally come from town doing their homework and scum looking for a new target to push. Only nitpick I have is that based on the rest of #1430 I would have expected Boom and Z25 to change places.
I actually like that his evaluation of Boom's content in #1601 leads to no solid conclusions, LG knows that Boom can play in this fashion as town as well and is understandably cautious. I would be suspicious if LG had a strong lean either way based on gut with little to no obvious evidence.
I think LG making the effort and searching for our previous scum-chat is town-motivated, scum either won't bother with the effort or if they do look it up in hope they can find something that they can use they would either not post it if they weren't successful or they would make a big case out of it if they think it might have a chance. LG had a single sentence as a comment to it and I think his 'feel' is very much open to personal interpretation.
I am biased wrt his reads on UP. They reference a lot of stuff that has already been said and they are safe in the sense that consensus by that point seemed to point more to UP. However the conclusion is consistent with his read earlier on me when this wasn't the case.

Summary: I like his D2 content but I will have to review his case on Jack. Provisionally town.

I mean #1726.

the above you want my comment on?

What am I suppose to comment on? That’s about Sabrar’s read on Laser’s actions. I’ve mentioned but unless I’m mistaken they are saying I should look different to laser on their list based on their thoughts correct?

 

[Z25]

Dr. Seuss Mafia. I mean, why do you agree with the point that Laser avoiding to comment = Laser-Scum. How does that reflect on Boom's alignment?

Because again that combined with not contributing much overall just feels like minimal effort scum to me. If Laser is scum I would look at Boom even more. I would even reevaluate Sabrar because of the debate being between the two.


Right now however there’s another problem that definitely is more glaring over the actions of boom or laser.

 

[ranmaru]

You scumread Laser; Sabrar gives reasoning that disagrees with that. Wondering how that impacts your read on Laser.

 

[Z25]

Hi!

This was posted hours ago at this point.

##UtopianPoyzin

This also directly correlates to a rule violation . Which I want to say Scum UP wouldn’t make this mistake but I don’t want to ignore that their was deliberate. And even if he wasn’t available atm, no reason townie UP would have done that. A more genuine answer like “ Oh can’t be here atm but I want to talk later” would look a lot better and feel less scummy. The fact he would pop in and out like that just feels like he’s ****ing with town tbh. Which regardless of alignment is bad

 

[ranmaru]

I think it's intentional. Do you think he's trying to save a buddy?

 

[BoomFrog]

Combined with a very odd tactic it’s just as out of norm as Up’s role is. Which strikes me as weird behavior and I still strongly disagree with the reasoning for the emoji usage and can’t see town doing it. If I’m wrong then I’m wrong but that’s my thoughts given past mafia experiences and seeing or being in similar circumstances

I know you're tired of debating this with Laser, but I'll confirm in case a second opinion helps your perspective. The emoji thing is almost a direct reference to a tactic I used D1 in a game on our forum. And it did work for me, I caught scum. Laser has never tried it, but is an ambitious learner. So town Laser certainly would consider doing it here. Scum laser would consider it too, so I don't give it a lot of weight, but I don't think you should consider it scummy even if it was irritating.

 

[Z25]

Started reading LaserGuy shortly after I finished my thoughts on Jack so #1430 took me by surprise (though it's based on D1 content which I haven't reviewed). Anyway finishing LG first (and coming back to #1430 later) because it seems like less work.

LaserGuy

Last read-list from D1. Updated early D2. Only significant change is Jack moving to bottom. I guess #1430 is a result of a reread during the night because even at the end of D2 LG liked his tone. This is NAI because it could equally come from town doing their homework and scum looking for a new target to push. Only nitpick I have is that based on the rest of #1430 I would have expected Boom and Z25 to change places.
I actually like that his evaluation of Boom's content in #1601 leads to no solid conclusions, LG knows that Boom can play in this fashion as town as well and is understandably cautious. I would be suspicious if LG had a strong lean either way based on gut with little to no obvious evidence.
I think LG making the effort and searching for our previous scum-chat is town-motivated, scum either won't bother with the effort or if they do look it up in hope they can find something that they can use they would either not post it if they weren't successful or they would make a big case out of it if they think it might have a chance. LG had a single sentence as a comment to it and I think his 'feel' is very much open to personal interpretation.
I am biased wrt his reads on UP. They reference a lot of stuff that has already been said and they are safe in the sense that consensus by that point seemed to point more to UP. However the conclusion is consistent with his read earlier on me when this wasn't the case.

Summary: I like his D2 content but I will have to review his case on Jack. Provisionally town.

First point here is fair, but again voting for Jack and saying all my content looks bad to them is weird. They had two pints on Jack, if everything about my slot was bad to then why not vote me then? They also list Maven and Up as their radar as well. Which you could argue the intent their is either throwing names out but then choosing someone completely different for their vote, or you could argue these are genuine reads. But the manner in which each is discussed feels out of place in a Jack centric post. Could be a townie laying out all kinds of suspects or scum lining up potential lynch targets. But that requires their mate(s) to be able to pull that off, so it’s probably the former. But still painting me as looking worse then not voting me sticks out here.


I see the perspective of why Sabrar likes no conclusion, but if LG is experienced enough with Boom, then there is no good reason for them to not have a strong read on the slot imo one or another. Which iirc they’ve played a good amount of times together. So that’s odd but it can still come from a townie perspective I won’t deny that.

Next point: I actually fully agree that is a likely motivated by a townie then scum. Scum will usually be less inclined to go all in, especially if they thought their team was doing decent enough.

You scumread Laser; Sabrar gives reasoning that disagrees with that. Wondering how that impacts your read on Laser.

Answered, and as I said I’m open to re-evaluating slots. Right now UP is out of my town pool and in scum lean after that stunt.

Everyone else that’s left in my town pool I am fully positive are town, the rest of my slots I’m unsure of but I think my mafia core of Mavenchu, Now Up again are likeliest out of my non town reads. After Sabrar’s post here I would put laser back in null territory And I’m putting Boom at a scum lean after looking over his content again.

Those posts he’s made about betting his slot over the lives of others doesn’t look good. It’s something a new player could make a mistake of, not something I think an Experienced player would wager though due to how bad that usually backfired and it’s something that can be scum motivated and wipe townies out through mislynches easier.