Oasis Mafia - Over!

[Wiisp]

And I'm not trying to crap on your reads, I mean it's possible you are strong enough to catch all the wolves, but I just don't think you PoE'd all wolves.

 

[Wiisp]

Ninja is the biggest problem right now, I still think knowing his alignment opens up this game regardless of what he flips, it's a good Lynch for day 1

 

[Wiisp]

If Jack/Ninja is a thing, I can tell you, Jack would be fuming right now haha

 

[Sabrar]

I'm wondering why you haven't prompted me to discuss reads,

Because our playstyle is not an exact copy and I just don't do that.

or try to convince me that I'm wrong on Ninja, especially after I have a case on Ninja being scum.

Because I'm much less convinced about town!Ninja than you are in scum!Ninja. That flip is far from the worst that could happen D1.

Finally, can you tell me why you believe UP's confidence waning = scum?

He has an overreaction to the reveal of the neighborhood. When questioned about it he realizes that he showed TMI (regardless of how many scum there actually are in the 3) and backs down. As with a lot of other reads that were pointed out by others as well, he has no actual reasons behind his words.

If he is scum showing too much information, how does that reflect on Ninja's alignment?

I didn't yet consider that angle because we don't have the flip.

 

[Wiisp]

Which is what, blasting his possible partner, for ???

 

[ranmaru]

And I'm not trying to crap on your reads, I mean it's possible you are strong enough to catch all the wolves, but I just don't think you PoE'd all wolves.

I'm confident in Ninja. I agree with you that UP has been playing differently here than in sorcerer. Yet I thought that Sabrar's point that he was over-confident, meant he knew Ninja was scum. Yet I can't ignore the fact that UP has town equity here. He does have progression with his reads. He is one to be illogical.

 

[ranmaru]

I think Maven may actually be scum this game.

 

[ranmaru]

Because our playstyle is not an exact copy and I just don't do that.

You said you were eager to see my reads. I assumed you'd want to discuss them, or do something with them. How do you work together with your town reads if not discuss reads?

Because I'm much less convinced about town!Ninja than you are in scum!Ninja. That flip is far from the worst that could happen D1.

I think you should try to reconsider your stance on Ninja then. I can walk you through it, if you like.

He has an overreaction to the reveal of the neighborhood. When questioned about it he realizes that he showed TMI (regardless of how many scum there actually are in the 3) and backs down. As with a lot of other reads that were pointed out by others as well, he has no actual reasons behind his words.

Can you lay out the posts where his confidence wanes?

I didn't yet consider that angle because we don't have the flip.

You state his overreaction shows TMI but that requires for him to know the alignment of said player(s). I'm curious what exact information you feel he had from his over-reaction.

 

[ranmaru]

Well, I did a short ISO on Z.

his 'grilling' to me looks like boomer tech support :
"did you get the email."
"no"
"zen doesn't run games like that"
"oh you mean THIS email?"
*slaps forehead*

throw some encouragement in there 'don't give up, even in you're mafia!'

In your mind, would this not come from town Z?

Admittedly, all of my thought in this is predicated on the idea that scum!3DS wouldn't, or couldn't play 'dumb' this well.

I may not be 100% convinced he's mafia, but that doesn't mean I'm unwilling to vote for him.

I don't think you should expect Ninja to play in a certain way, since you have no meta from him. Yet, newbie scum can certainly play dumb in their first game, that's what I did on this site. (To be exact, I actually had no clue what I was doing, not knowing what to do in the game was genuine, but I played up the confusion to my advantage) Yet again, I do believe his actions regarding the neighborhood claim required some coaching. But you also have to face the facts: What is Ninja actually doing now, in your mind? You follow me on the Exlight example. You haven't seen newb scum like I have seen.

 

[UtopianPoyzin]

Calling it right now, if 3DSNinja is getting lynched D1, that's about the be the fattest bus of the century. I'd rather we leave that on the backburner until EoD. If anybody is thinking "BuT mAyBe ThAtS sCuMmY! yOu ArE iGnOrInG a LiKeLy ScUm", shut up lol.

 

[Sabrar]

You said you were eager to see my reads. I assumed you'd want to discuss them, or do something with them. How do you work together with your town reads if not discuss reads?

I don't discuss just for the sake of discussing, I'm only trying to aggressively change another player's opinion where I feel it endangers the correct lynch. In #401 you were deadset on Ninja who is not a terrible choice and you had Jack+UP as the other scum. I was perfectly fine with that and didn't feel the need at that point to change your mind. Depending on how things would shake up in the next few days I would have probably asked you to switch to UP at some point.

Can you lay out the posts where his confidence wanes?

He spends two consecutive posts backtracking in #92 and #93.

You state his overreaction shows TMI but that requires for him to know the alignment of said player(s). I'm curious what exact information you feel he had from his over-reaction.

There are 2 main possibilities, my guess is that the first is more likely:
1. There is actually no scum in the neighborhood but he knows that the common perception is 1 scum out of 3 so he wants to direct attention to that so we focus on TvTvT fights.
2. There is 1 scum there so he wants early credit to point out the fact.

 

[ranmaru]

UtopianPoyzin Why are you voting Sabrar instead of Ninja?

 

[UtopianPoyzin]

UtopianPoyzin Why are you voting Sabrar instead of Ninja?

Why not

What I'm most interested in is why you think I did it.

 

[ranmaru]

I don't discuss just for the sake of discussing, I'm only trying to aggressively change another player's opinion where I feel it endangers the correct lynch. In #401 you were deadset on Ninja who is not a terrible choice and you had Jack+UP as the other scum. I was perfectly fine with that and didn't feel the need at that point to change your mind. Depending on how things would shake up in the next few days I would have probably asked you to switch to UP at some point.

I see. I guess that's fair.

He spends two consecutive posts backtracking in #92 and #93.

Thank you, I'll look at those.

There are 2 main possibilities, my guess is that the first is more likely:
1. There is actually no scum in the neighborhood but he knows that the common perception is 1 scum out of 3 so he wants to direct attention to that so we focus on TvTvT fights.
2. There is 1 scum there so he wants early credit to point out the fact.

I don't think that lines up with his read dropping on Ninja, though. I would think if you were correct, the second option would be more likely.

 

[ranmaru]

Sabrar I take it with the omission of my offer to help walk you through Ninja, that you don't want to consider reconsidering your stance on Ninja.

 

[ranmaru]

I mean, I won't exclude it. They could all be town; heck, they could all be scum. But from my perspective, it would seem that the likeliest option is that there's one in the mix. I don't have any hard suspicions on who it is at this moment, but I suppose that if you have a scumbud in there then it WOULD be in your best interest to focus on an "all town" neighborhood rather than one with scum in it.

I suppose its incorrect. The possibility of an all town neighborhood does exist. I just doubt it. That's all. Personally, I don't want to dwell on figuring out who it is, as lynching from there gives us 33% odds, which is not at all ideal. Would prefer to vote somewhere that I'm confident in. And as of right now, you're my top pick. Granted we haven't even been playing for a day, and D1 reads are always subject to fluctuation, but it is what it is.

 

[Sabrar]

Sabrar I take it with the omission of my offer to help walk you through Ninja, that you don't want to consider reconsidering your stance on Ninja.

I will reread your case at some point tonight when i feel like it. I don't like being pressured to do things and usually have an adverse reaction.

 

[Wiisp]

If UP is a wolf with this tone, after Sorcerer
Props to him

 

[ranmaru]

That's fine. I like to convince my town reads of what I feel is the best direction. Being read as town is not enough to win the game. I'll go over your original Ninja read so you have that to look over your re-read as well.

 

[LaserGuy]

If UP is a wolf with this tone, after Sorcerer
Props to him

Can you explain how UP was different in Sorceror?

 

[Wiisp]

ThAtS sCuMmY! yOu ArE iGnOrInG a LiKeLy ScUm", shut up lol.

Ok boomer

 

[Wiisp]

Can you explain how UP was different in Sorceror?

Go read his iso, he died day 1 it's relatively short, I think you will be able to see what I am talking about

 

[ranmaru]

Spoiler: 3DSNinja

I got a townie vibe from him before all the weirdness happened. I think in the end he managed to explain himself although it took a long time. I was considering Jester at some point but then remembered to reread the rules. I just don't see anyone coaching him. I understand Jackrito's stance in #174 but this is just so weird that I can't see them as scum. However it would be really helpful if they could drop the attitude and actually try to post reads.

[/SPOILER]

You mention you feel he gave jester vibes. That should clue you in to his alignment. He gets caught, and then tries to show a brave attitude to seem like he is town that doesn't care. Yet he doesn't do anything else beyond that, when given the space to do so. You state you don't see anyone coaching him, but you can't actually know or verify if this or isn't the case. The simple fact is he claimed his neighborhood without consulting them, all to get Laser out of a bind, when at the time he didn't show to have a read on Laser, or interact with what I was saying. It wasn't a good reason to, so I believe there was a scum motivated reason to do so. He just can't explain it.

 

[ranmaru]

Not Voting (3)
Maven, Z25, Wisp​

Deadline: Monday, April 20, 2:00pm EDT

I think y'all should consider voting soon, since deadline will be in four days. Rather, I want to see a direction from you guys. (I know Wisp intends to do something tonight, but just stating overall)

 

[ranmaru]

I also want people to start thinking about where they want to centralize. Everyone should have a bottom four they can compromise within. I will think of one tonight or tomorrow at the latest.

 

[3DSNinja]

I disappeared because I just incriminated myself more.
gotta say, lost all trust in Ran. Still suspicious of UP moreso, but Ran seems to only be focused on lynching me even when others point out logical reasons why it doesn't make sense.

Actually never mind, I think Ran is sick moreso then UP.

##Unvote
##VoteRanmaru

 

[3DSNinja]

*scum.
Posting on mobile sucks ya know?

 

[LaserGuy]

3DS or Jackrito would be my preferred choices. I will consider looking at UP or Wiisp, but I'd honestly prefer Maven over either at this point.

I had a look at Sorceror and I agree with Wiisp this UP's tone this game is very different. ranmaru , you were in that game as well, how do you feel about the difference in UP's tone compared to that game?

 

[3DSNinja]

Ran seems like he only wants to bus me, which is incredibly mafia thing to do. SUre, I'm suspicious as hell, but him pretty much writing off all the other scum candidates to focus on me feels like he's trying to bus me with everyone thinkin he's town. i dunno, it feels very off to me, especially since UP is looking less and less scum by the minute

 

[ranmaru]

LaserGuy I think he has had more progression here and more posting of reads without prompting in that game. The only thing to consider is that he had no chat with his buddies since he was essentially a traitor. In that game, he ignored most of my content he could point to that, and said I was null when the whole game was town reading me. Here he had a different approach, although he had me as null, he didn't keep it > scum read. Here he simply asked others for their opinion on my play. The only thing that gives me pause is his approach towards Ninja.

 

[ranmaru]

Ninja: I am confident you are scum, and I want you lynched. It's that simple.

 

[Jackrito]

If Jack/Ninja is a thing, I can tell you, Jack would be fuming right now haha

I would be and would not give him as many chances as this game. I'm pretty ruthless as scum towards teammates. On the topic how much have you seen my scum game play before .

 

[ranmaru]

Jackrito I'd appreciate an answer to my question to you.

 

[ranmaru]

I'll give the thread some time to breathe, I'll eat and watch some anime in the mean time.

 

[Z25]

I think Maven may actually be scum this game.

I would say that’s a pretty strong possibility, considering they promised content and reads then disappeared and reappeared not delivering and left it at that. Feels like he isn’t just inactive like last time, but purposefully being inactive on d1 and let discussion go all over.

Go read his iso, he died day 1 it's relatively short, I think you will be able to see what I am talking about

This is an interesting point to consider. But UP also acted that game by immediately throwing his teammates( me and Rax) name all over the thread and in votes.

While there is a better buildup to him discussing a scum in the neighborhood, I still feel like if 3ds is scum, Up has a good shot and flipping scum. I’m open for other ideas though.

I think y'all should consider voting soon, since deadline will be in four days. Rather, I want to see a direction from you guys. (I know Wisp intends to do something tonight, but just stating overall)

I’m currently thinking of voting for 3ds but didn’t want to move my vote in case others did the same and ended the day early.

As for your other post though , my top four to look at for scum that I’d be fine with lynching are:


3ds
Up
Maven
And I don’t know who fills this spot yet. I would need one of those 3 to flip scum for me to have a better look at potential candidates.

 

[UtopianPoyzin]

3ds
Up
Maven
And I don’t know who fills this spot yet. I would need one of those 3 to flip scum for me to have a better look at potential candidates.

That is like the safest bottom three of all time it’s pretty impressive

 

[Pythag]

@Ran fair points, all of them.

I really don't have a rebuttle. Other than I was pretty locked on dumb not scum, but you're right, I'm putting assumptions on 3ds that I shouldn't.
and probably doing PoE earlier than I should.

3DS is the pretty obvious lynch choice for today, then.

I need to re-evaluate, and figure out my other reads.

 

[Z25]

That is like the safest bottom three of all time it’s pretty impressive

Just like it’s impressive how poorly constructed that last reads list of your was

 

[Sabrar]

UtopianPoyzin : want to reply to #215 and #441?

 

[Z25]

And I’ve already stated that those 3 have been on my radar for some time.

3ds makes way to much sense as newb scum why would I think otherwise? I’ve seen plenty of new scum make mistakes like they did. On top of the fact that he gives a lot of info up

Mavens behavior is strictly different from town maven.

And you wrote your self into that last Corner Up. So think what you will.

If gun to my head I had to put a forth person in there, I would go Jack or Boomfrog.

Jack because that would still be good information. Although I don’t have any scum tells from them currently. Boom frog would be in case they are a less active scum.