Sometimes I feel Smash fans act as if every single player buys every single DLC character and would continue to do so indefinitely...
Look, it's one thing to love DLC and the nature of content it enables, but you gotta admit it's terrible value relative to how much you get for your money in the base game, and generally diminishing returns for the company the longer it goes. Those who still can't fathom how Nintendo could possibly decide against doing a third Fighter Pass may need to wake up.
Not to mention how a potential evergreen system-seller like Smash desperately needs to be up-to-date mechanically and graphically every gen. Backwards compatibility of the Wii and Wii U did not render Brawl or Smash 4 unnecessary.
Continued DLC or DLC-styled content packs are simply not sustainable as the primary or premier source of new content for Smash. It's not the absolute win-win for player and developer that some make it out to be. Besides, even if I'm totally off and Smash could make it work for another whole gen somehow, we'll simply wind up in the same situation again, only worse and worse as far as the possibility of porting everything over and retaining the roster goes.
I have literally never seen a fanbase with so much straight-up animosity towards the very idea of a brand-new entry in their series. At a certain point, it's too much in my opinion. Regardless of your stance on particular characters, this overarching "no cuts, no buts" attitude is just not the hill I'm gonna die on when it comes to the longterm well-being of our beloved franchise.
Simmer down. The idea of returning to base Ultimate is pretty rarely brought up relative to the idea of Ultimate Deluxe, another conventional entry, or a reboot. No one in the thread is deathly committed to the idea of returning to Ultimate in the way that you're asserting. I'm probably the most vocal proponent for the idea here and even I think it's just one option available for the series going forward. Like with all options, it has a variety of pros and cons that come with it relative to other choices. I've posted hypothetical rosters for a Smash 6 that looks more like the jump from Melee to Brawl and Brawl to Smash for numerous times here. If you think my post spitballing this idea is "straight-up animosity towards the very idea of a brand-new entry in the series", then you are drastically misreading my intentions.
In terms of dollar value for the consumer, that's entirely relative to the individual. If you're just speaking in terms of characters, then yes. Ultimate's base game gets you about 60 characters for $60, while Fighter's Pass 2 gets you 10% of that for $30. However, you're solely interested in the
unique newcomers to Smash available in a product, DLC has Ultimate's lunch. You're getting six newcomers in both Ultimate's base game and Fighter's Pass 2 despite the former being double the price of the latter. You could probably even argue that Fighter's Pass 2 gives you
more of the content you want relative to Ultimate, as Isabelle is so heavily based on Villager. That's also not considering the idea of returning to Ultimate but not following the Fighter's Pass formula in favour of cheaper releases that only come with the character.
In terms of DLC generating diminishing returns, I would need to see some data that backs that up. Could it be true? Maybe. However, I think it's more likely that the sales of DLC fluctuate depending on who the fighter in question is. If I had to hazard a guess, Steve probably sold the best out of all of Ultimate's DLC characters because Minecraft is such a massive IP, but he was the eighth DLC fighter of 12 and he realized right as Ultimate entered its final year of support.
What is your vision for updating Smash mechanically and graphically for the next generation? Ultimate's mechanics, by and large, hold up fine. There are a handful of characters that could stand to have their win conditions altered (
), but most people are reasonably happy with the speed, physics, and options available in Ultimate. I don't know if you things to get closer to Melee, but that honestly seems like a lost cause at this point. Having the skill ceiling be that high was a happy accident that goes against Sakurai's vision for the franchise, which is why competitive Melee fans have instead focused on mods and other platformer fighters like NASB2 to build off what Melee established. Likewise, Ultimate continues to look good graphically. The jump from the Wii to the Wii U was the largest increase in power and graphical fidelity between consoles in the past
15 years. Comparing the situation now to Brawl and Smash for is a false equivalency. By comparison, people seem to be largely dissatisfied that new console exclusives don't look like they're using new hardware relative to the previous gen. Ratchet and Clank: Rift Apart, Spider-Man 2, and
especially the Last of Us Part I have all been criticized for looking like they could run on the PS4. The reality is that the intergenerational, graphical arms race has largely plateaued in the HD era, with games looking less and less "new" as time goes on.
I certainly don't think returning to base Ultimate is a perfect solution, I'm just not seeing how this is the franchise-destroying decision that you seem to think it is.