Official Next Smash - Speculation & Discussion Thread

[MrMcNuts]

If we talking bout who we want in DX or the next smash, I don't got too many but...

Rayman: My most wanted obviously. Among the top requests in the west and is becoming relevant again, hopefully sparks of hope dlc can make him blip a little more on Japan's radar

Waluigi: Man has been done so dirty and probably the most requested 1st party, c'mon Nintendo.

Shovel Knight: my 2nd most wanted. Might not be as likely as the other two but him getting a whole assist trophy is pretty notable. Guess it depends on how he's doing when this game rolls around.

Beyond that there's cool characters like 2B and Bandana Dee, but no one I feel as strong about

 

[Wonder Smash]

Sakurai says he's semi-retired but let's not forget that his first video on his YouTube channel reveal he does have another game that he plans to make. And another thing you can't forget about Sakurai is that he likes to catch people by surprise. So he can make people think that his role in the next game could even be small or he may not even have a role at all, only to end up having the exact same role that he's been having all along.

Though still, in the end, a money making series like Smash isn't going to end and I'm sure Sakurai will want to be involved in some way.

I got a question; if there is a Deluxe, what are the possibilities that third-party characters that were either spirits or Mii costumes can be upgraded to playable characters?

 

[Ivander]

MK is the opposite of Smash in that regard though.

In MK, Drivers are almost no effort to make compared to the Courses.

The courses aren't taking that much effort either, considering alot of the old stages are using the Tour version as a base. Not all of them, but porting the Tour versions certainly makes things easier. Compared to Smash Ultimate which apparently started from scratch for both Fighters and Stages.

 

[silenthunder]

Sakurai says he's semi-retired but let's not forget that his first video on his YouTube channel reveal he does have another game that he plans to make. And another thing you can't forget about Sakurai is that he likes to catch people by surprise. So he can make people think that his role in the next game could even be small or he may not even have a role at all, only to end up having the exact same role that he's been having all along.

Though still, in the end, a money making series like Smash isn't going to end and I'm sure Sakurai will want to be involved in someway.

I got a question; if there is a Deluxe, what are the possibilities that third-party characters that were either spirits or Mii costumes can be upgraded to playable characters?

This might be a hot-take but I hope we still get mii costumes of requested characters that can’t make the cut.

 

[Nabbitfan730]

Honestly Sakurai retiring does make me strongly mixed. He's right that he has dedicated his most of his life to the series and he should slow down. He deserved that break

But i just me fearful for the series.

Every franchise where its main creators/directors/visionaries/company etc who started it has stepped down always end up to the gutter or decrease in quality severely from it was before

Sonic, Star Wars, Halo, Simpsons etc. All hollow shells of their former selves.

Nintendo's choices for DLCs and State of Modern Gaming don't exactly inspire confidence either.

Imagine a Smash with only 12 characters and rest of the roster you had pay for season pass each time to gain them with only Vs mode being available. All the other mode you'll had to wait for occasional update.

 

[fogbadge]

sakurai can semi retire at 52? just goes to show you. that man is loaded

 

[Nabbitfan730]

While I really like Tinkaton, I actually don't see it being a particularly exciting newcomer in Smash, tbh. The whole hammer-wielding thing is more unique in Pokemon compared to a game where we already have Dedede and Ice Climbers.




Online play and a good portion of character choices (DLC ones) have nothing to do with the director, though. Similarly, the quality of the single-player content is not consistent among Sakurai's games and has more to do with how much time they have to work on it.

Like, that's not a "don't you dare criticize Sakurai" post, it's just you won't get a revamp on everything from a mere director change.

Similarly, there's no guarantee that a lot of things we take for granted under his supervision won't get worse.

I don't how people believe they will suddenly get what they want via wanting replacing one guy despite the processes especially what Smash goes through is a lot more complicated. Especially when Nintendo had alot more reigns with Smash than ever before. I remember hearing before that Sakurai being replaced would be good thing because having new blood would make Smash more diverse with more LGBT+ reps and such and man, that pull me back

It's similar mentality OG Fanboys when the Force Awakens was getting ready to release acting like SW was back after all so dreaded Prequels then boom, it blew in their faces.

Similarly, there's no guarantee that a lot of things we take for granted under his supervision won't get worse.

Judging from past experiences of media, this is most likely outcome

 

[WeirdChillFever]

No way that someone other than Sakurai is gonna add “more LGBT+ reps” because Sakurai was already adding all the Fire Emblem lords like a true ally.

 

[HyperSomari64]

No way that someone other than Sakurai is gonna add “more LGBT+ reps” because Sakurai was already adding all the Fire Emblem lords like a true ally.

Fates has a Gay/Lesbian Marriage option.

 

[MrMcNuts]

I don't how people believe they will suddenly get what they want via wanting replacing one guy despite the processes especially what Smash goes through is a lot more complicated. Especially when Nintendo had alot more reigns with Smash than ever before. I remember hearing before that Sakurai being replaced would be good thing because having new blood would make Smash more diverse with more LGBT+ reps and such and man, that pull me back

Well I hope my post didn't come off as "sakurai gone = good"

My hole point is that a new director could still do cool things and that smash could still be good even if sakurai ain't at the helm, as long as it's a good successor directing it

 

[SPEN18]

what I'm more interested in is what this means for the release date of the next Smash. If they have to find a new director, who knows how many years it could take for the next one to be made? Do you think they could even release some SSBU Deluxe or a surprise third Fighters Pass to hold people over during the meantime?

Whenever Nintendo wants to make another full Smash game, they will hire a director for it. I don't think it needs to or will be made any more complicated than that.

They decided on making Brawl (and told people about it) before even asking Sakurai to do it. Nintendo will entirely dictate when the next Smash gets made, and will hire as director whoever they perceive to be the most qualified candidate at or around that time. I don't think Sakurai's status would increase or decrease the chances of a port.

 

[True Blue Warrior]

I remember hearing before that Sakurai being replaced would be good thing because having new blood would make Smash more diverse with more LGBT+ reps and such and man, that pull me back

That’s the dumbest anti-Sakurai argument I’ve ever heard. Saltiness truly does make some people irrational.

 

[LiveStudioAudience]

Interesting Digital Foundry video which has a guest stating a genuine Switch upgrade model was internally planned but ultimately canceled (and a comment that the real next console will not be coming in 2023).

Honestly I can believe both. The pandemic/chip shortage causing a shift towards the Switch OLED makes sense, and my thinking for a long time has been that 2024 will be more likely year for the successor console.

 

[DarthEnderX]

The courses aren't taking that much effort either, considering alot of the old stages are using the Tour version as a base.

You know what, fair point.

 

[LiveStudioAudience]

You know what, fair point.

The Booster Course pass strikes me as a compromise by Nintendo's internal teams. Get less resource intensive tracks via retro courses to take advantage of the insane sales of MK8D with DLC while the major work gets done on the actual MK9.

 

[Verde Coeden Scalesworth]

Honestly, Tour is the closest to a legitimate Mario Kart 9 we even had. It's an all new game full of characters, etc.

8 Deluxe is nothing more than a port with extras. It's cool it got more stuff, but it's also not that notable. Sometimes ports get a few extra content the old ones didn't. It's not a useful precedent for Smash Ultimate, which isn't a port but a completely different game in every way. Both Nintendo and Sakurai pretty much declared it finished wholesale. It's also much much easier to remake the content that Deluxe actually got as DLC, as most of it are ported content from Tour. Smash Ultimate getting new characters and courses are not nearly that easy and take a significantly higher amount of work, as well as even more licensing where applicable(with Mii costumes, that's also a lot too, same with Spirits in general. Just using a character isn't inherently cheap, whether it's a screenshot or model. Models just take more work to implement and require more talking with the creators to make sure they're satisfied with how they are used).

So the comparison ultimately(heh) doesn't work. They're too different. Besides, if 2023 is our next console, we'll see a new game down the line(with probably nowhere near as many characters due to major licensing issues. Most will be back, but it also depends upon if they take even longer to make the games than normal, which at least means all the 1st parties have a good chance of returning, as the only reasonable cut at this point for 1st parties is programming issues or if they're specifically trying to reboot the series or reduce the roster significantly. Otherwise? Not much reason to. Improve upon a few like Daisy, sure. But that's kind of it). 3rd parties are always inherently up in the air no matter how well it went last time. Anything can change. I mean, even with Sonic doing so well with Nintendo, he almost didn't make it into Brawl. I think he's 99% likely in that case, but the fact licensing exists means it's not a hard guarantee. Just clearly a soft guarantee in Sonic and many others' case.

 

[HyperSomari64]

(Yeah, i know Smash was occasionally referenced in the franchises that are represented, this is just something i had in my mind).

Image #1: Smash Fans when the Devs add something that is made-up for the game that didn't appear originally.
Image #2: The same **** but with Marvel vs. Capcom. (Mega Man never used THAT armor again since MvC2)

 

[Nabbitfan730]

Whenever Nintendo wants to make another full Smash game, they will hire a director for it. I don't think it needs to or will be made any more complicated than that.

They decided on making Brawl (and told people about it) before even asking Sakurai to do it. Nintendo will entirely dictate when the next Smash gets made, and will hire as director whoever they perceive to be the most qualified candidate at or around that time. I don't think Sakurai's status would increase or decrease the chances of a port.

Isn't as simple as hire a director?They can't just hire anybody. Might be one of the stressful position to take

You conveniently left out the part where Sakurai didn't agree to work on Brawl, they would've just ported Melee with Online. I don't think a port is likely either but if Sakurai is gone for good, it will be easier said than done.

 

[SPEN18]

You conveniently left out the part where Sakurai didn't agree to work on Brawl, they would've just ported Melee with Online

Honestly I totally forgot about that part. Thank you for pointing out that mistake. But...remember that this was partially a result of Iwata's promise to Sakurai that the latter would be consulted should Nintendo make a Melee sequel; this circumstance is not relevant anymore (nor is any other similar ultimatum that we know of). In part due to its immense profitability, I don't think anyone, even Sakurai refusing his involvement, would be able to stop Nintendo from making a Smash sequel at this point. Aside from that flawed Brawl example, I think the rest of my post there was accurate.

Isn't as simple as hire a director?They can't just hire anybody. Might be one of the stressful position to take

The point is that they can and they will hire anyone they want if it comes to that; if there was some fallout or difference of opinion with Sakurai, or if Sakurai was simply insatiably picky about his successor, then at a certain point Nintendo would just proceed against Sakurai's wishes because they're not bound to any of those wishes. But I do think that they should be able to cooperate successfully with Sakurai to find a new director, i.e. I don't think that it actually will "come to that."

And no, I don't think hiring for any competitive position is an entirely simple matter. But outside of the standard intricacies and due diligences of hiring for a high-up and/or high-stress job, there shouldn't be any additional complications that would put a potential project in jeopardy (i.e. it's highly unlikely that any Sakurai-specific circumstances would hold them up beyond reason).

 

[Perkilator]

I made a Raven Beak moveset if anyone's interested:

Spoiler

Intro: Raven Beak falls from the sky, then slowly stands up.

Stance/Idle 1: Raven Beak stands tall with his arms to his sides and arrogantly looks downward.
Idle 2: Raven Beak twitches slightly.
Idle 3: Raven Beak casually surveys his surroundings as his cape and scarves sway in the wind.

Notable Palette Swaps:

1. Default
2. Red Chozo Soldier (red)
3. Samus’ Dread Power Suit (cyan)
4. E.M.M.I. (white)
5. Quiet Robe (yellow/blue)
6. Chozo zombie (black)
7. Army green
8. No helmet (alt.)

Walk: Raven Beak slowly walks towards his enemy.
Dash: Raven Beak dashes towards the enemy while hunched over.
Damage: Raven Beak stumbles backward as his armor emits faint sparks.
Jump: Raven Beak jumps three times, using his wings for the latter two.
Crouch: Raven Beak puts his free hand on the ground, lowers his head, and ducks.

Normal Attacks
Jab: Raven Beak uses his free hand to slash to his left and then to his right, then finishes with a vertical swing downward (15%, OK knockback)
Forward+A: Raven Beak gathers a crimson aura around his free hand before releasing it with a forceful slam (16%, OK knockback)
Down+A: Raven Beak performs an axe kick that buries opponents on the ground (17%)
Up+A: Melee Counter; Raven Beak lifts his Arm Cannon upward (14%, OK knockback), then follows up by blasting with it (8%, OK knockback)

Aerial Attacks
Air+A: Raven Beak unfurls his wings on both sides of himself (14% on each side, OK knockback)
Air Forward+A: Raven Beak shoots a burst of energy that slightly pushes him backwards (15%, OK knockback)
Air Back + A: Raven Beak unfurls his wings behind himself, slightly pushing him forwards (17%, OK knockback)
Air Up+A: Raven Beak shoots multiple bullets above himself (14%, OK knockback)
Air Down+A: Raven Beak dives down (14% with a meteor effect, OK knockback) and unfurls his wings onto the ground (11%, OK knockback)

Dash Attack: Raven Beak slides a short distance forward and delivers a devastating punch (21%, medium knockback)
Edge Attack: Raven Beak performs an axe kick (13%, OK knockback)
Get-Up Attack: Raven Beak unfurls his wings around himself (12%, OK knockback)

Smash Attacks
Forward+A: Raven Beak aims his Arm Cannon at the ground and charges up a short-range beam, then swings the blaster horizontally as the laser launches anyone in its way (22%, medium knockback)
Up+A: Raven Beak dramatically lifts his Arm Cannon, then unleashes an intense blast from its tip (27%, medium knockback)
Down+A: Raven Beak aims his Arm Cannon up in the air and charges up a short-range beam, then swings the blaster vertically downward as the laser launches anyone in its way (22%, medium knockback)

Grab Game
Grab: Raven Beak grabs his opponent’s neck.
Pummel: Raven Beak chokes the opponent (5%)
Forwards+Throw: Raven Beak shoots the opponent point blank with his Arm Cannon (17%, OK knockback)
Down+Throw: Raven Beak stomps the opponent into the ground (16%, OK knockback)
Back+Throw: Raven Beak tosses the opponent behind him without even bothering to look back (14%, OK knockback)
Up+Throw: Raven Beak tosses the opponent above himself without even bothering to look back (14%, OK knockback)

Special Moves
B : Beam Burst; Raven Beak charges his Arm Cannon and rapidly fires an array of bullets that drains Aeion as long as B is held (2% each hit, small knockback), and he can aim freely. When recharging Aeion, Raven Beak fires only a single, moderately strong shot (13%, OK knockback).
B + Forwards : Flash Shift; Raven Beak darts forward at the speed of light either forwards or backwards, phasing through anything in his path, and he can use this twice. When recharging Aeion, Raven Beak only dashes once and goes a slightly smaller distance, though he can still go either forwards or backwards.
B + Up : Aeion Dive; Raven Beak performs a spiraling dive in the direction titled (17%, OK knockback). When charging Aeion, Raven Beak unfurls his wings and flies purely upward (13%, OK knockback), but recovers more of a distance.
B + Down : Dark Sphere; Raven Beak shoots a Dark Sphere that slowly homes in on any nearby opponents and drains Aeion (5% each hit, small knockback). When recharging Aeion, the sphere instead goes forward and deals a single hit (16%, OK knockback).

Final Smash: Raven Beak X; black liquid bursts out of Raven Beak, who then transforms into a Kraid-looking monster that can move its head using the control stick. If time runs out or a button is pressed, Raven Beak clamps his giant maw and snares any unfortunate opponents (65%, devastating knockback), instantly K.O.-ing any above 100%.

Gimmick: Aeion Gauge; Raven Beak uses Aeion for his special attacks, which refills over time or by moving around, though it’s stalled by either knockback or using your weakened specials. Pressing Shield + B with a full Aeion Gauge gives him Lightning Armor, which halves damage taken and reduces knockback and hit stun. But as long as the armor is active, Raven Beak can only use the weaker versions of his specials and you can’t cancel out of it.

Taunts
1: Raven Beak beckons his opponent to attack him.
2: Raven Beak places his free hand on his Arm Cannon and pumps it like a shotgun.
1+2: Raven Beak gathers energy around the palm of his open hand, then crushes it.

Winposes
1: “Power…is everything.” Raven Beak chokeholds the camera.
2: Black liquid appears around Raven Beak right before he menacingly glances at the camera.
3: “Accept your helplessness.” Raven Beak stands triumphantly while turning his back to the camera.

Applause: Raven Beak points his Arm Cannon at the camera, threatening to shoot the winner.
Icon: The Metroid series icon
Boxing Ring Title: The Dreaded Mawkin Warrior
Star K.O.: Raven Beak screams for his life
Victory Music: https://youtu.be/-pDr2mkadx4
Kirby Hat: Raven Beak’s mask

 

[osby]

The Sakurai retirement announcement obviously brings up a lot of questions about how Smash will be handled in the future but that's hella open-ended and could mean anything depending on who's hired or if Sakurai still has some kind of supervisor role.

nah what I'm more interested in is what this means for the release date of the next Smash. If they have to find a new director, who knows how many years it could take for the next one to be made? Do you think they could even release some SSBU Deluxe or a surprise third Fighters Pass to hold people over during the meantime?

No? A new Fighter Pass would require reasembling the dev team which is more work than simply finding a new director and a Ultimate Deluxe is kinda pointless unless we get a new console - which, by that point they'd have enough headstart to simply come up with a replacement.

 

[DarthEnderX]

The Booster Course pass strikes me as a compromise by Nintendo's internal teams. Get less resource intensive tracks via retro courses to take advantage of the insane sales of MK8D with DLC while the major work gets done on the actual MK9.

I don't think they're working on 9 at all. I think the MK team is working full-time on Tour, and then porting those courses to MK8D.

An interesting thing to note: MK8D retro courses label what games the course came from. But you'll notice that only the real-world city courses are labeled as being from Tour. Ninja Hideaway, Sky-High Sundae and Merry Mountain are not labeled as being from Tour, even though they first appeared in Tour. It's treats them the same as courses that originated in MK8.

This suggests 1 of 2 possibilities:
1. They were originally meant to be MK8D DLC courses, but the DLC was delayed and they appeared in Tour first.
2. They were originally meant to be MK9 courses. But development on MK9 was either scrapped or postponed due to the Switch's longevity, so they decided to use the courses in Tour/MK8D instead.

 

[Ivander]

I don't think they're working on 9 at all. I think the MK team is working full-time on Tour, and then porting those courses to MK8D.

An interesting thing to note: MK8D retro courses label what games the course came from. But you'll notice that only the real-world city courses are labeled as being from Tour. Ninja Hideaway, Sky-High Sundae and Merry Mountain are not labeled as being from Tour, even though they first appeared in Tour. It's treats them the same as courses that originated in MK8.

This suggests 1 of 2 possibilities:
1. They were originally meant to be MK8D DLC courses, but the DLC was delayed and they appeared in Tour first.
2. They were originally meant to be MK9 courses. But development on MK9 was either scrapped or postponed due to the Switch's longevity, so they decided to use the courses in Tour/MK8D instead.

Last time I checked, they confirmed they were working on the next Mario Kart. So more than likely, they decided to put the Tour courses for MK8D DLC to take advantage of how much MK8D sold while having alot more time to focus on the next Mario Kart they are planning for the next hardware.

That said, with how long it's taking the next Mario Kart, considering it's more than likely planned for the next hardware because of MK8D's success, I'm like, "Besides the tracks, I hope this means alot more focus on a big character roster that doesn't have a lot of the same characters." I honestly don't need Gooigi to be a racer. Or another racer who is the exact same character.

 

[Chuderz]

Haha did Sakurai read my post and decide to tell me what for? I'm not sure what means by "semi-retired" other than I guess I think it means he'll make an exception for Smash and maybe the odd non-Smash game here and there. I'm thinking he more means he's slowing down than anything else.

Didn't he also already say he's begun work on his next project? I'm pretty sure I saw that. My guess is a Kid Icarus: Uprising Remaster with that little wink-wink nudge-nudge he did on one of his videos a while ago. I hope it's an extremely enhanced port versus just a simple port. If you check my sig I have a concept I made for a potential Uprising remaster called "Kid Icarus: Uprising & Downfall" where in addition to remastering the game and adding a new story to it they also make it a spiritual successor to Air Ride City Trial Mode using chariots from the Kid Icarus games as a parallel to the warp stars. I'd be super excited for a game like this.

i am not sure if namco own them but Q entertaiment made these games and it had different publisher for each game so i am guessing Q owns them

Gotcha. Still an Assist Trophy would be a nice nod from Sakurai.

You mean Pokeball

I did mean that. Whoops.

 

[Venus of the Desert Bloom]

Looks like it’s time for me to submit my official application and resume over to Nintendo post haste for the director position for new Smash Bros.! Luckily I have already a game under my belt and that game is none other than Super Smash Bros. Infinite!!!

 

[fogbadge]

Haha did Sakurai read my post and decide to tell me what for? I'm not sure what means by "semi-retired" other than I guess I think it means he'll make an exception for Smash and maybe the odd non-Smash game here and there. I'm thinking he more means he's slowing down than anything else.

Didn't he also already say he's begun work on his next project? I'm pretty sure I saw that. My guess is a Kid Icarus: Uprising Remaster with that little wink-wink nudge-nudge he did on one of his videos a while ago. I hope it's an extremely enhanced port versus just a simple port. If you check my sig I have a concept I made for a potential Uprising remaster called "Kid Icarus: Uprising & Downfall" where in addition to remastering the game and adding a new story to it they also make it a spiritual successor to Air Ride City Trial Mode using chariots from the Kid Icarus games as a parallel to the warp stars. I'd be super excited for a game like this.

Gotcha. Still an Assist Trophy would be a nice nod from Sakurai.

I did mean that. Whoops.

Would you hire me to write the story?

 

[Diddy Kong]

If Sakurai retires I think a next Smash is either Ultimate DX, a safe option to get this new director started. Or it's gonna be a reboot of sorts, and I think that's a way less safe option but could potentially have a good influence for the future of the series, but at the same time alienate the core fanbase.

As what I would choose out of these two options? Definitely Ultimate DX. I prefer the safe option, let the new team and director experience Smash at it's peak and get comfortable with it, then build their own thing after that.

Also happy 444.

 

[Geno Boost]

am i the only one who wants to actually use his gun in his moveset?
at least as a part of grab throw

 

[Idon]

am i the only one who wants to actually use his gun in his moveset?
at least as a part of grab throw

Yeah you are.

The only firearm Captain Falcon needs is this

 

[Diddy Kong]

Setting your arm on fire for a Falcon Punch >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> using a firearm.

This is just common sense.

 

[Geno Boost]

didnt say replace his whole moveset just 1 grab throw

 

[Idon]

didnt say replace his whole moveset just 1 grab throw

Even using it once taints the sanctity and purity of his moveset.

 

[LiveStudioAudience]

The big question with Mario Kart and the next Smash is related to the biggest unknown x factor which is Nintendo's overall strategy with their next console. The company is in a great position, but history has shown that strong spot can easily be lost in the next generation and the big N has not had mega strongly successful home consoles back to back in over 25 years. They have every reason to be cautious, especially when the last time they assumed the audience would come back with the Wii U (and likely put out a fairly ho hum launch library based on that reasoning) only to end up with very weak sales.

Given how much the Switch's central concept has done well, a contiunation of that is the most logical option, especially given the virtual stranglehold it has on the Japanese market. However, the initial novelty and sizzle of console gaming on the go is not as strong (and is arguably being shared with the Steam Deck). so if there's not a big gimmick to sell this next console like 3D or two screens and it is being sold as a more powerful Switch, then the burden of appeal falls to software. In that regard we in a very interesting situation right now giving the timing because the question might be, what game/s will sell the Switch 2? To me there's about 5/6 realistic options as far as killer apps, but all have their own unique situations given the timing.

-Legend of Zelda
Obvious choice, but with Tears of a Kingdom coming next year and successor console not potentially likely till after that, its impractical to whip up a full blown new mainline title in such a short amount of time, and its unlikely any remake of a previous entry would be big enough to generate the necessary hype.

-Mario Kart 9
Again easy answer given the insane sales of the current entry, yet the timing has to be looked at. The booster course pass won't finish till the end of 2023 and even assuming a launch of holiday 2024, a new Mario Kart may have to do be something fundamentally big and/or different really wow consumers after the absurd number of courses offered by 8 Deluxe and so recently to boot.

-Pokemon
With the sales of Scarlet/Violet in spite of its problems, its certainly a safe choice. However given how much Game Freak/TPC does their own thing with their own schedule, it might be more practical to simply allow them to get a handle on the new console and release at their preferred time within reason.

-Animal Crossing
Bit of dark horse choice sure, its just that with the mega success of New Leaf taking it to unseen heights, there's some logic in having a new game to instantly sell the next console to casuals. The downside would be that the hardcore crowd might not go for it as much, and its difficult to say what degree of work would be necessary to create a new game within four years of New Leaf's release (especially given that was delayed itself to get it up to standard).

-Mario
This would be a slight curveball of sorts; yes Mario Odyssey launched within the first year of the Switch. and its a top 10 game. Yet the mainline games have frequently been outdone in numbers by various other Nintendo IP's (Mario Kart being its own unique spin-off) and the only Mario platformer to launch with a console in the past 20 years was NSMBU, which did little to get the system big momentum. Granted that was oversaturation of that sub-brand and the Switch 2 Mario title would most certainly be 3D, but it is worth noting. The timing does work out for Mario though, with Odyssey over 5 years old now, and no definitve confirmation about what Nintendo EAD has been working on in the interim. October 2023 would mark the longest time between 3D Mario titles ever, so coming with the next system would feel overdue.

-Super Smash Bros
The most interesting of possibilities and rife with questions. Base Ultimate finished in late 2018, but DLC did require teams and only just finished last year. Is there a division in labor that's allowed for full blown work on a new Smash these past few years, even when Sakurai's announced semi-retirement. Hard to say, and what form this next game would take leads to further questions. Does backwards compatibility doom the appeal of an Ultimate Deluxe? Can Nintendo skirt by using the base form of SSBU for the next game to get it out by holiday 2024? Is there a logic in doing a reboot, if the previous game can still be played on the newest console. I have no idea, but Smash to launch the Switch 2 would be a hell of seller, even with just roster choices.

 

[Geno Boost]

whats your pick if there had to be 1 smash original character just like how Multiversus has Reindog?
i think playable Tabuu would be fitting and unique

 

[Ivander]

-Mario Kart 9
Again easy answer given the insane sales of the current entry, yet the timing has to be looked at. The booster course pass won't finish till the end of 2023 and even assuming a launch of holiday 2024, a new Mario Kart may have to do be something fundamentally big and/or different really wow consumers after the absurd number of courses offered by 8 Deluxe and so recently to boot.

Super Smash Kart....Hmm? I didn't say anything. I wasn't hoping for something to happen at some point. Nor was I looking at the possibility of it happening at some point after we got Link, Villager, Isabelle, the Inklings, Excitebike and F-Zero tracks.

 

[Troykv]

I'm hoping to see Sakurai's next project, whatever it actually is.

 

[DarthEnderX]

whats your pick if there had to be 1 smash original character just like how Multiversus has Reindog?

Hope that never happens.

But, gun to my head? Sandbag.

 

[PeridotGX]

The big question with Mario Kart and the next Smash is related to the biggest unknown x factor which is Nintendo's overall strategy with their next console. The company is in a great position, but history has shown that strong spot can easily be lost in the next generation and the big N has not had mega strongly successful home consoles back to back in over 25 years. They have every reason to be cautious, especially when the last time they assumed the audience would come back with the Wii U (and likely put out a fairly ho hum launch library based on that reasoning) only to end up with very weak sales.

Given how much the Switch's central concept has done well, a contiunation of that is the most logical option, especially given the virtual stranglehold it has on the Japanese market. However, the initial novelty and sizzle of console gaming on the go is not as strong (and is arguably being shared with the Steam Deck). so if there's not a big gimmick to sell this next console like 3D or two screens and it is being sold as a more powerful Switch, then the burden of appeal falls to software. In that regard we in a very interesting situation right now giving the timing because the question might be, what game/s will sell the Switch 2? To me there's about 5/6 realistic options as far as killer apps, but all have their own unique situations given the timing.

I think it would be interesting to take a look at Nintendo's history of launch games to gleam what they might go for (I'm looking only at their biggest games).

NES/Famicom - New IPs and arcade ports, the gaming landscape was so different back then that it's hard to derive a pattern.
Game Boy - Mario and a Tetris port
SNES - A new Mario and two new IPs (F-Zero and Pilotwings)
N64 - A new Mario and Pilotwings
GBA - A new F-Zero and a Mario remake
Game Cube - A Mario Spinoff, a new IP (Pikmin), and a Smash (I know Melee wasn't exactly at launch but it was only a week later, I say it counts)
DS - A Mario remake (and spider-man 2)
Wii - a new (multiplat) Zelda and a new Blue Ocean IP (Wii Sports)
3DS - A new Pilotwings, a new IP (Steel Diver), and a new Blue Ocean game (Nintendogs)
Wii U - A new Mario and a new Blue Ocean IP (Nintendo Land)
Switch - A new (multiplat) Zelda and a new Blue Ocean IP (1-2 Switch)

plenty of interesting patterns to see here. the biggest is that we'll probably get a Blue Ocean new IP game, as basically every system since the Wii has. Obviously Mario is the IP most common at launch, but number 2 is Pilotwings of all things. I don't think it's particularly likely we get Pilotwings 4... but what if. Also of note is that Pokemon or Mario Kart have never been on a system at launch, a pattern I had already known for the former but never really thought about for the latter (though games like Super Circuit and 8 Deluxe released very early into the system's life)

anyways, the biggest takeaway I see is that a good launch lineup... isn't that mandatory. The GameCube and N64 had legendary games to begin with, but those consoles struggled. Meanwhile, the 3DS had an infamously atrocious launch lineup, with the DS arguably worse, and both systems did well (very well in the latter's case). Hell, I remember the early Switch era being sparse (in no other situation would Snake Pass have hit it big). It obviously helps to have a good lineup on day 1, but consoles have succeeded without one and failed with one.

 

[Mamboo07]

whats your pick if there had to be 1 smash original character just like how Multiversus has Reindog?
i think playable Tabuu would be fitting and unique

Tabuu

 

[HyperSomari64]

whats your pick if there had to be 1 smash original character just like how Multiversus has Reindog?

Maybe i am cheating, but my OC idea is like a Frankenstein's Monster-like creature of various non-video game characters. Kinda similar to Kevin's Mutation in the Ben 10 franchise, but with pop culture icons instead of Ben's aliens.