Putting aside that we don't know the comparative size of the next Smash's roster to Ultimate's and we don't know how many third parties will or will not be cut, you're projecting your opinions onto others without evidence. If no one from Smash's audience would go for a second Mega Man rep, why do videos advocating for a second Mega Man rep or, in the case of the X mod, taking active steps to add to add additional Mega Man content like this exist?
There's more to Smash characters than just being "franchise reps". Pokemon, Fire Emblem, Castlevania, and ARMS are basically the only situations where Sakurai desired a character from a specific series and filled in the spot in later. Otherwise, characters are basically always added for their intrinsic identity rather than just being "Mario Character #6" or "Sonic Character #2".
I don't see how I am projecting my opinion onto others, that's a bit uncalled for, I just said why I really doubt that X/Zero will be in the game. It actually feels more like you are trying to project your opinion onto others by bringing up how they're actually very popular when there are so many other 3rd party fighters that dwarf them in popularity and also we gotta see what Sakurai has looked for in 3rd parties so far. All the cases were either heavily successful or iconic characters either legacy-wise or at the time of them being chosen or heavily popular characters that showed true popularity in the official polls. Like given, all the precedence there is for choosing 3rd party characters, I really don't see how they would have X/Zero such high priorities given that even with their popularity, again, they are competing against literal giants. I don't see how that's me projecting my opinion but for you it's somehow not the case. And I am very much aware of the process of choosing characters, which makes me even more dubious on X/Zero getting in, even with a potential transformation dynamic, let alone seperately (and I've mentioned before but I genuinely don't see X/Zero being a transformation character in the first place, they aren't the same character or parts of the same character like the cases of a transformation character have been in Smash Bros, they are two different characters, so a transformation gimmick would feel very forced on them). I see that you want them in, but it's very uncalled for to say that I am projecting my own opinion onto others, when I am just resting my case based on precedence
Continuing on the topic of female fighters, what is everyone’s opinions on the chances for the ones currently on the roster returning? From what I’ve seen, I think the majority assumes that at least Samus, the Melee princesses, Mii Fighters (Gunner does use a female default), Isabelle, Inkling, and Aegis are likely returns. Here are the fighters I’m considering, but feel free to add characters with female alts like Villager, Robin, Corrin, and Byleth.
Oh, I'd love to chime in on this one.
So, in regards to unique fighters, for me the ones that are 100% returning are: Samus, Peach, Zelda, Inking and Isabelle (and Jigglypuff if she counts). I think some most of these require little-to-no-explanation as to why they are such locks.
The ones that I'd give a very high chance of returning are: Pyra/Mythra and Rosalina & Luma. Both of these cases are characters with a unique gimmick, some of the most popular characters in their home series and hailing from one of the most successful games respectively as well. I see the argument for Rosalina being at best 5th in line in the Mario cast which is what holds her back from being a true 100% but tbh, I think the Mario cast dropping down to the core 4 is unlikely in the first place, so she's good imo (and also I am pretty confident that she is #5 of the Mario cast, like I really don't think Bowser Jr. is staying over her, let alone the freaking Piranha Plant). And the Aegis... I mean, is Nintendo
really gonna hold back on the Xenoblade content now of all times when the series is picking up so much steam? Of course not. These 2 will only be cut if like those hypothetical 'cut the roster in half' scenarios actually come to be and even then they have a shot.
The ones that I think are likely to return are Palutena, Wii Fit Trainer (unpopular opinion? maybe?) and Zero Suit Samus. Palutena is pretty dependent on how many veterans can return next time. Because here's the thing, Sakurai will obviously not want to cut her, Sakurai bias and all. But if the roster is small, it's just gonna be very very difficult to justify keeping her over a lot of other fighters. If 55-60 characters return she's good, if 50-55 she could go either way but could still stay, but If less than 50 characters return, she's absolutely in trouble. Wii Fit Trainer is someone I was lower on a while back but the more I think of it, the more I think that Sakurai intends to probably keep her on the roster to mark the hallmark that was Wii Fit, doesn't hurt how much of a stand out she is. I think that Wii Fit is a modern Mr. Game & Watch in that regard. Zero Suit Samus is the one that should've been the lowest priority of the 3 here given that it's just Samus but without the suit but given how much Sakurai values her addition, I unfortunately have to give her the highest odds of the 3 in this group to return.
Min-Min and Sheik are complete toss-ups. When it comes to Min-Min, for me her fate is very much linked to the future of ARMS. Here's the thing, if ARMS gets any further content even if it's not a video game, we kinda have to see her again. You can't have an ongoing franchise and then remove it from Smash. But if ARMS is left abandoned like it feels like it's been the case these past few years (made all the more evident with the cancelled comic), who should realistically get cut in favor of Min-Min. That's why for now she's up in the air. Sheik is up in the air because now more than ever, she has to enter into a Smash game based on completely her own merits rather than as a part of Zelda. It really and I mean truly depends on how much valued she is individually, on her own rather than as an expansion of an existing character.
This is probably an unpopular opinion but Bayonetta is the most realistic cut from the ladies and one that I could see happen. Yes, she's very easy to negotiate and had the popularity poll but at the end of the day, she is a 3rd party character and she is competing against a lot of bigger fish so we have to think of a scenario where she is considered high enough priority to be brought back depending on the roster cuts over more successful, iconic or more requested characters. It's not impossible of course that she does return, but I'd say for now, she's not looking too good.
In terms of clones - Lucina is imo the single likeliest clone to come back. Like, I can't see a way that she gets cut. She's from Fire Emblem Awakening, the game that single handedly saved the franchise, she's one of the most popular characters in her franchise, she's been pushed as the Awakening rep a lot despite Chrom being the protagonist and she serves a good purpose as an echo. Plus, despite many people's grievances, Fire Emblem won't be trimmed down to 2 or 3 characters, so she is easy Fire Emblem representation in the event of cuts from a franchise that unlike Ultimate doesn't look to be over-repped in Smash 6. She's imo either in the 100% bracket or between the ver likely to return and the 100% brackets. Daisy and Dark Samus round up the top 3 of echoes most likely to return. Both very popular in their franchises, Daisy is seeing a huge uptick and Dark Samus is easy Metroid representation so they respectively are very likely to be brought back imo.
Overall I think the ladies have it rather well in terms of chances. The only one I'd be nervous for is Bayonetta, all the others, even with them not being sure-fires to return, I think have at least a shot or are outright guaranteed to return.