Official Next Smash - Speculation & Discussion Thread

[Diddy Kong]

Speaking of Mii costumes--
It wasn't really something that crossed my mind too much until I made a little fun Mii costume challenge. Basically, the idea behind it was coming to the realization that in Smash 4... Chrom, Daisy, Inkling, Isabelle, and King K. Rool became Ultimate newcomers from previously being mii costume hats/sets, assist trophies, and/or based on alternate palettes. I also reminded myself that Charizard was once a pokeball summon––but then again, Charizard is one of the most beloved Pokémon of all-time, so that's not too shocking.

As a result, Bomberman became more probable of a fighter inclusion in my mind than I had thought after making these infographics. Bomberman got a great mii costume set render––like you think you're actually playing Bomberman––until you press buttons as Mii Brawler. Having multiple colored palettes based on your Mii's favorite color too??? Such effort.. it's almost scary. Ya might as well just slap the guy on the character select screen at this rate. Anyways, what do y'all think of these?
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Spoiler: Mii Challenge Intro

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Spoiler: Mii Challenge 1

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Spoiler: Mii Challenge 2

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Spoiler: TIER LIST IMAGE REFERENCE

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Spoiler: TIER LIST IMAGE REF 2

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I don't think I fully understand this challenge to be honest.

But from the pool of Mii Costumes, even partial ones, I find the following characters most interesting ;

Dixie Kong, Isaac, Toad, Geno, Monster Hunter, Knuckles, Ashley, Black Knight, Takamaru, Rex, Yiga foot soldier (placeholder for Impa or Kogha?), Waluigi, Viridi and Bomberman.

There's actually quite some quality characters in there I often overlook.

 

[Garteam]

Also yes, Smash needs a cutoff at some point, but literally halfway through the Switch's life instead of waiting until the system is actually on its way out is kinda ridiculous, no? Because keep in mind that's LITERALLY halfway in this 2017-2025 life cycle, and no other Smash game has ever done that before. They've always started production the year before their console comes out minus the original.

There needs to be a cutoff point, yes, but when Nintendo has historically allowed their console to get through the vast majority of their lifespan before starting to consider getting Sakurai to make a new Smash game, I think that's a reliable enough pattern.

Just look at when each Smash game was made and released.

• Smash 64 had its development begin in 1997, and the original idea for Smash itself came the year before, the literal launch year of the N64. This effectively means the SNES era was the main focus. The fact that it started being developed on the N64's second year rather than before a console was properly launched can be excused by the fact that, well, it's the first one. It's the one where Sakurai initially had the idea.
• Melee being designed as a launch title for the GameCube with a very short dev time that started almost right after Smash 64 came out allowed for the N64 era to be represented without much issue since it started around the end of that console's life span.
• Brawl's development starting in 2006 allowed it to cover the vast majority of the GameCube era
• Smash 4's development started in 2012, which was around the time the Wii was at its last breath.
• Ultimate's development started not long after Corrin and Bayo dropped in Smash 4 in early 2016, which was around the time the Wii U was pretty much not gonna get anything big anymore.

Based on this, it makes more sense for Sakurai to start working on a new Smash at a later point than 2021-2022 so the Switch's library isn't screwed to the point where Nintendo, Sakurai and his dev team would have to spend most of a Fighters Pass playing catchup just to the Switch isn't underrepped. And that's if they even do that in the first place.

Think about it. Your examples for Ultimate's DLCs were all Switch reps rather than "playing catchup on Wii U reps" so the first-party DLCs very much focused on what's relevant to the console rather than what came before. We've even seen that in Smash 4's DLC with the non-veteran Nintendo offerings being Corrin (a character from a game that was either recently released or upcoming based on where you live) and Bayonetta (a third-party character with a game fully funded by Nintendo that came out recently at the time).

So if the cutoff point is 2021, people like Noah and/or Mio, Alear and many others won't "get a second chance with DLC", they'll just not make it in the roster. Ever. They would've completely missed their chance and the first-party DLCs would instead focus on what the Switch 2 brings to the table, leaving a massive four-year gap in representation in a crossover series that has been very consistent at not making those kinds of gaps. With the only exception being a Paldean Pokemon since that franchise gets special early bird privileges.

I think late 2023 is a good cutoff point for roster choices because that's when big releases start to be more ports and remasters than actually original games.

Sakurai's project plan being started in 2021 means games that postdate this timeframe won't get playable characters as content. The StarFox gang still had their Zero designs, Mario Odyssey and Breath of the Wild got a decent amount of representation, ARMS had an assist trophy and Mii Costumes, and Splatoon 2 had costumes and music. You can postdate a project plan and still get something, but it's just not a dedicated fighter.

Even then, the project plan being in 2021 substantially means that Rauru, Noah/Mio, Sportsmate and Oatchi won't be eligible.

Let's assume Metroid Dread is the cutoff point. Let's also assume that Scarlet/Violet and Engage are eligible due to Pokemon's future proofing and Engage being completed but intentionally held back to 2023, respectively. Let's also not assume remakes influence anything because that's generally how Smash has operated in the past.

Under these circumstances, the following games are not eligible for playable characters:

• Pokemon: Legends Arceus
• Kirby and the Forgotten Land
• Xenoblade Chronicles 3
• Nintendo Switch Sports
• Mario Strikers: Battle League
• Fire Emblem Warriors: Three Hopes
• Splatoon 3
• Bayonetta 3
• Bayonetta Origins
• The Legend of Zelda: Tears of the Kingdom
• Pikmin 4
• Detective Pikachu Returns
• Super Mario Bros. Wonder
• WarioWare: Move It!
• Princess Peach: Showtime!
• Emio: The Smiling Man - Famicom Detective Club
• The Legend of Zelda: Echoes of Wisdom
• Mario & Luigi: Brothership

Games highlighted in green, to my understanding, don't introduce or majorly emphasize any characters that would get a Smash appearance that haven't already obtained one. In other words, they aren't tilting the needle that much.

Games highlighted in yellow are games that emphasize a character who is a serious contender for Smash (Octoling, Bandana Waddle Dee, and Ayumi), but the relevant character already had a pre-2022 Switch appearance that would make them more competitive at getting in the roster.

Red are games that introduced characters which would otherwise be contenders to get into Smash. Even then, Legends Arceus' inclusion is somewhat charitable, as most people in the thread agree that Pokemon will be future-proofed to have a Gen 9 or 10 Pokemon and that Legends Arceus probably isn't competitive.

It sucks that Noah/Mio, Rauru, and Oatchi might not be eligible and I'm genuinely sorry for their fans. However, I don't agree that their exclusion is effectively gutting an entire half-generation of potential candidates. It's three characters (and Sportsmate, but I don't think that's generally what people are referring to when it comes to Smash being more inclusive of the late Switch era).

I will admit that I feel ready for a new Smash because I feel ****ing old, man. I'm not going to go into too much depth about this because I don't think a thread like this is really an appropriate venue to delve into one's person life in great detail, but I get a little depressed and nostalgic thinking about how much has changed for me between December 2018 and now. I'm at a completely different stage of my life, my environment is radically different, the people I see on a daily basis are different, my hopes and anxieties for the future are different, and the range of experiences that I have had almost make me feel like a different person. Six years is a long time. I can't even imagine how much things and I may change in another two to three years from now.

I love Ultimate to death and I will always will, but it's progressively starting to feel like a memory of a bygone past rather than something modern. That, at least to me, is why it feels like it's time for a new Smash.

"When is it time for a new Smash game?" is going to inherently be a subjective question. I can understand not agreeing with my opinion but please try to respect it.

 

[Masonomace]

Dang, this thread is poppin'––

If another Sonic character joins the fight, which one would you prefer?
Metal Sonic, Shadow, Eggman, Knuckles, Amy Tails, Silver, or any other character? (Sorry to not be rude, but there are so many Sonic characters to list.)

As a Sonic fan, and speaking on behalf on many other STH fans.. it's just so hard to decide on the next character from the series. Everyone's unsure of who it should be. I'm already not the happiest camper about Sonic and his fighter slot is in Smash already. Revamping Sonic might honestly be more important to me before I see a new STH character. But I'm a sucker, and I'd personally pick Shadow. However, I know that Tails or Dr. Eggman for sure should probably be the next step. Heck, Knuckles is just as good too. He definitely serves as the right merit for a fighter slot too.

I've said this before, but I hope they change Sonic's victory theme to a better version of the Sonic 3 Act Clear theme. Like this one:

This. Absolutely this. This is way better than what we currently have. Or, the Sonic Mania variant one works great too.

I think we are getting a Gen 9 pokemon in the next Smash but what makes people so sure it meowscarada? I remember people being so sure that decidueye was gonna be the starter they went with and they chose incineroar

This is such a question, because for the longest time, I really thought back in S4 DLC time-era––when ORAS remakes were happening––I thought Sceptile was getting the shoe-in. But time and time again, it wasn't happening for anyone, then Ult, and then Ult DLC. Now.. Rillaboom isn't here. Meowscarada was too late for the time, but I hear about them a lot for the next Smash title. But the topic about a Grass startermon is definitely getting old. Decidueye was the closest we got, but they still said, "Nah." -- so. It basically stems from needing a grass type because we got Charizard and now Greninja. That's how it was at first. Now that we have Greninja, and now Incineroar.. people will believe that should the Pokemon get no cuts--then Meowscarada completes the type trio trinity and becomes the 3rd dark type to join as well. But after I hear this, I see opinions like, "they're a magician, so they'd definitely have a fun moveset." –– I just came to the realization that Grass startermons really don't matter in the grand scheme, it would seem.

In terms of Pokémon newcomers, I really want something original.

No starters, no trainers, no Pikachu clones.

This. I'm of the opinion that a Pseudo-legendary, or even a mythical could do good right about now. And that's why I'm really down for someone like Deoxys. They check off a lot of boxes for me, and I recall a thread asking about who a good mon would be for the next smash title in this thread, so I listed my thoughts there.

Will you settle for an anime swordsman?

I'm honestly okay with this. I personally like Armarouge more by just my own appeal, but either or. Ceruledge would definitely fit well.

I don't think I fully understand this challenge to be honest.

But from the pool of Mii Costumes, even partial ones, I find the following characters most interesting ;

Dixie Kong, Isaac, Toad, Geno, Monster Hunter, Knuckles, Ashley, Black Knight, Takamaru, Rex, Yiga foot soldier (placeholder for Impa or Kogha?), Waluigi, Viridi and Bomberman.

There's actually quite some quality characters in there I often overlook.

It's a tad confusing, so my bad to anyone indulging the infographic challenges. First infographic is just the intro to the challenge I made up. Mii Challenge 1 and 2 have a series of questions to answer, and everyone can use the latter two spoilers that have the tier list image templates. It's a lot to remember every mii costume detail, so that's why I made those tier list images.

EDIT: But yeah! There are actually quite a lot of good candidates as fighters from the Mii costume selection. Lots of sleeper picks, and just solid picks in my mind overall. That's why I liked making those edited image challenges a lot.

 

[TheFirstPoppyBro]

I love Ultimate to death and I will always will, but it's progressively starting to feel like a memory of a bygone past rather than something modern. That, at least to me, is why it feels like it's time for a new Smash.

I feel like I understand your whole post except this bit. If you want Smash to feel more modern and not like a memory of a bygone past, why would you want them to cut characters off to literally four years ago? Like I get that it wouldn't affect things like stages and collectibles, but why not give the opportunity to more modern characters like Noah/Mio or Oatchi (not to mention a new Pokemon from Gen 10 that we haven't even met yet, which is like the pinnacle of Smash modernity) if you want the game to FEEL modern?

If it started development in late 2023 or 2024, which jives with the Namco studio timeline better, and includes stuff from early on in the Switch 2's life (like the first year or so) like you mentioned Ultimate did with like Odyssey, BotW, and ARMS, would that not be better for making it feel modern?

 

[ninjahmos]

I know 06 has been used as Sonic's victory theme for too long, but if they ever decide to do unique victory themes and/or result themes for each character…maybe they could use this for Sonic:

 

[Þe 1 → Way]

Under these circumstances, the following games are not eligible for playable characters:

• Pokemon: Legends Arceus
• Kirby and the Forgotten Land
• Xenoblade Chronicles 3
• Nintendo Switch Sports
• Mario Strikers: Battle League
• Fire Emblem Warriors: Three Hopes
• Splatoon 3
• Bayonetta 3
• Bayonetta Origins
• The Legend of Zelda: Tears of the Kingdom
• Pikmin 4
• Detective Pikachu Returns
• Super Mario Bros. Wonder
• WarioWare: Move It!
• Princess Peach: Showtime!
• Emio: The Smiling Man - Famicom Detective Club
• The Legend of Zelda: Echoes of Wisdom
• Mario & Luigi: Brothership

Aside from Xenoblade once again getting shafted base game, my biggest worry from this is that Zelda's moveset might've been designed before Echoes of Wisdom. I know this mentioned hypothetical list is only for characters, but they might just tack on a consolation prize rather than overhaul her moveset during development in this scenario.

Still, solid point that it isn't the end of the world if the game was designed this early. There's still a lot from these games to draw from that isn't characters, and most series on the cast can still be modernized without feeling like something is missing imo

I love Ultimate to death and I will always will, but it's progressively starting to feel like a memory of a bygone past rather than something modern. That, at least to me, is why it feels like it's time for a new Smash.

This gets across a sentiment I've had a hard time putting into words. I know 6 years might not necessarily be the longest wait time for a game (absolutely thrilled for Prime 4), but at least for me, Ultimate launch was a third of my lifespan ago.

As more influential releases have come and gone, it increasingly feels like the series is being given free ammunition to iterate on itself and create something spectacular from the heights Ultimate reached. It makes sense to me that we might need to wait one to two more years before release, but I am glad to think that hopefully the most of the waiting (at least the parts with no news) has been done already.

April 2nd is just 37 days away after all.

 

[smashkirby]

I'm 32 years old. I have loved Smash speculation since the Brawl days and I won't stop anytime soon. I still remember checking the Dojo back in 2007 and being hyped beyond belief when this popped up on a random day:

I'll NEVER forget this day... I was in the middle of my 5th grade Math class and we were working on a group project. I snuck away from my group to quickly check the Dojo, and seeing HIM as the latest update that day?

I kid you all not, I was THAT close to screaming in shock, but I just barely managed to keep myself under control. Heck, I think there was a split-second where I might have fainted from seeing this.

Is there any Smash Bros. characters you didn't know about before their Smash Bros. reveal? (or well before you picked up the game).
My friend and me just remembered we used to play lots of crossover games when we were teens (SEGA Superstar Tennis, Playstation All-Stars Battle Royale, Project x Zone 1)....even though we had no idea who like most of those people were, but we had a lot of fun regardless lol.
As for Smash Bros...my first game was Brawl and i was a PS2 kid....so like 70% of the roster was a "who?" for me, i think i only knew the Mario + Adjecents, the Pokemon cast, Link, Snake and Sonic. lol
After Brawl the only character i didn't know was Richter, everyone else i know about or heard about, im not sure if they'll ever introduce another character i don't know about in the future, but i mean Ritchet caught me off guard, so who knows.

Until I played the OG Smash Bros. on N64? I only knew about Kirby and the Pokémon via their animes on the FoxBox/4Kids TV and Kids' WB, respectively.

Everybody else past Kirby, Pikachu, and Jigglypuff was a literal 'Who?' for me. Yes, that includes MARIO.

Like, I only had the VAGUEST idea of him. That is to say, as far as I was concerned? HE EXISTED.

Ironically enough, despite discovering Smash Bros. at a time where Kirby was FAR more minor of a Nintendo franchise, he ended up being what got hooked on Smash Bros., Nintendo, and gaming as a whole. Simply because Smash was where I learned Kirby was a video game character first and foremost.

A lot of the characters in Melee I didn't recognize when I first played it. Other than the Pokémon, Kirby, the Mario and Mario adjacent characters (aside from learning a "Dr. Mario" exists, but I mean, it's simply Mario as a doctor), and knowing a "Zelda" exists and recognizing Link while not knowing his name (yet never thinking he was "Zelda"), I was in the dark.

After that, I'd follow Smash stuff since Brawl was announced, so other than not recognizing Pit right away (but thinking back to the Melee trophy) and learning about the Zero Suit's existence through the trailer, I at least seen each of Brawl's newcomers at least once. Even Lucas, who had come up a few times in speculation but people talked about Masked Man more.
Even Snake, I at least recognized through Nintendo Power, so the big shock for me with him was that he wasn't a Nintendo character.

Wii Fit Trainer is someone I didn't know existed before a friend sent me a clip of her reveal through text (didn't see it live). Other than her, I knew of all other Smash For newcomers to varying degrees.

None of Ultimate's newcomers were anyone I haven't at least seen before somehow.
The closest one I didn't know of was Richter since I wasn't that versed in Castlevania. But it made a lot of sense when it was clear he was the "Die, monster!" guy since I'd seen that scene passed around.

No joke, your experience seems nearly identical to mine. The only difference being that I was only aware of Kirby and the Pokémon while playing the first Smash Bros..

Side note, but in regards to (Zero Suit) Samus? I didn't even know Samus was a woman until 1-2 years before Brawl's trailer came out, and even THEN, I had absolutely NO inkling as to what she looked like underneath her armor until Brawl's trailer. Needless to say, I... can't say that I wasn't legitimately surprised.

I've said this before, but I hope they change Sonic's victory theme to a better version of the Sonic 3 Act Clear theme. Like this one:

I really can't stand that Sonic still has his 06 theme though, I always disliked how muddy that one sounds. Mostly compared to the aforementioned Adventure theme where, if you're gonna copy paste one over from a different game, at least pick the one that matches Sonic's energy and swagger.

Oh, MAN. Every time I win as Sonic, I can't help but cringe a little inwardly at his current victory theme. Like ninjahmos said, SA2's version of that song would be SO much better.

 

[Godzillathewonderdog]

An animated series and merchandise doesn't exactly point to it being "more popular". That's just more exposure to the series.

Turn that back around on me all you want but then you'd just be showing that the whole sales argument was pointless from the start. As we don't know the current numbers for either series, there's no point in making this comparison. Maybe the sales of the PlayStation version of Cuphead was also not noteworthy. It could be anything.

You know, it's funny how after all that talk about sales, now all of a sudden, the Contra series reaching Cuphead's numbers wouldn't be very impressive now. That was literally your point earlier; Cuphead was more popular than the Contra series because it sold more.

You talk about thinking critically and rationally but I hope you don't think those numbers from 1996 are still to this day. The 4 million unit they sold back then is already nothing to laugh at and it shouldn't surprise anybody if it increased even more after that. Now I'm not saying for sure that they're higher than Cuphead's number now but it would be silly and desperate to still use that to say Cuphead is more popular if they really are that close in numbers.

Never said the indie scene was a fad but there's no doubt that it brough more awareness to games like that. Had it been before that era, it may have been overlooked.

We got nothing go on to say Cuphead is more popular than Contra. One thing that is clear that Contra has a legacy that Cuphead will never erase and Cuphead will never actually overshadow Contra, no matter what.

Cuphead has all this merch and tv deals and internet videos with hundreds of millions of views, and a costume, song and multiple spirits in Smash (meanwhile Contra has nothing in Smash, despite Konami lending so many of their other franchises) because of its wide appeal, it’s clearly garnered a sizable casual audience, something Contra very clearly lacks. Do you deny this?

A single game selling more than a series with over a dozen games is a lot more impressive than a series with over a dozen games selling more than a single game, this should be obvious.

Contra peaked in popularity with the original trilogy, those are the games people talk and care about the most by a landslide. Hardly anyone knows or cares about Legacy of War or The Contra Adventure or Neo Contra. I can’t confirm how well the games from the late 90s onwards sold, but I doubt it was comparable to the trilogy, especially since like I said before Konami is usually open about sharing the sales numbers of their more successful titles, and the one time we did see sales numbers it was pretty bad.

It’s not like the indie scene was some main stream thing, Cuphead was extremely impressive, people were sold on the game based on its own merits, I don’t think I had ever seen so much collective excitement for a game from a brand new studio before, give the game some credit for goodness sake.

Who cares if in some alternate reality indie games were rarely every acknowledged by gaming conventions or game journalists, resulting in Cuphead not getting much attention, thus not reaching its maximum sales potential, or whatever point you’re trying to make, the reality we live in is the one where the game got the recognition it deserved and became a big hit.

Contra has a legacy, and the Cuphead IP being generally more popular doesn’t lessen that legacy.

 

[ninjahmos]

I may or may not have said this before, but if Tails and Knuckles ever get into Smash, they should include Rumbling HWY for Tails and Pumpkin Hill for Knuckles.

Also, if Eggman ever gets into Smash, they should include Cosmic Wall.

 

[DarthEnderX]

Yeah, by the end of 1996, that is.

Dude, there is no way the Contra games that came out after 1996 sold 2 million copies.

Indie games aren't "lesser" just because they weren't made by a corporation.

I'll believe that when one of them gets a Fighter in Smash. Until that happens, they are "lesser".

There's zero reason they shouldn't be allowed into the conversation just because one of the "big three" didn't make them or whatever.

"Big three"? Do you think indie games are anything that's not 1st Party? Like, Capcom and SquareEnix are indie?

 

[Wonder Smash]

Cuphead has all this merch and tv deals and internet videos with hundreds of millions of views, and a costume, song and multiple spirits in Smash (meanwhile Contra has nothing in Smash, despite Konami lending so many of their other franchises) because of its wide appeal, it’s clearly garnered a sizable casual audience, something Contra very clearly lacks. Do you deny this?

A single game selling more than a series with over a dozen games is a lot more impressive than a series with over a dozen games selling more than a single game, this should be obvious.

Contra peaked in popularity with the original trilogy, those are the games people talk and care about the most by a landslide. Hardly anyone knows or cares about Legacy of War or The Contra Adventure or Neo Contra. I can’t confirm how well the games from the late 90s onwards sold, but I doubt it was comparable to the trilogy, especially since like I said before Konami is usually open about sharing the sales numbers of their more successful titles, and the one time we did see sales numbers it was pretty bad.

It’s not like the indie scene was some main stream thing, Cuphead was extremely impressive, people were sold on the game based on its own merits, I don’t think I had ever seen so much collective excitement for a game from a brand new studio before, give the game some credit for goodness sake.

Who cares if in some alternate reality indie games were rarely every acknowledged by gaming conventions or game journalists, resulting in Cuphead not getting much attention, thus not reaching its maximum sales potential, or whatever point you’re trying to make, the reality we live in is the one where the game got the recognition it deserved and became a big hit.

Contra has a legacy, and the Cuphead IP being generally more popular doesn’t lessen that legacy.

I don't deny that. Castlevania was people's main focus for a Konami rep, so it's no surprise Contra didn't get anything in Smash yet.

That depends on when they sold and why they sold so much. If Cuphead benefitted from the era it was made from, that it's not really anything to be all that impressed by.

It wasn't just the original trilogy that people played. There was also Hard Corps and there's plenty of people who also played the others, including Shattered Soldier. I see no reason to assume the those games did bad just because Konami didn't share numbers, as we've seen numbers for games like Castlevania Judgement (which was WAY worse). Though either way, assuming the numbers have been same since 1996 is just crazy.

Why are you worrying about me giving it credit? I'm just not exaggerating its popularity by using sales that we don't even know it currently has.

Yeah, it's a game that's got the recognition it deserved and it's a big hit but the time when it came out is worth bringing up if it played a part in its success. Like you said earlier, you say a single game selling more than a series with over a dozen games is a lot more impressive than a series with over a dozen games selling more than a single game. But timing plays a part too.

Well, you keep saying Cuphead is more popular but you know you can't base this on sales.

Dude, there is no way the Contra games that came out after 1996 sold 2 million copies.

There's no way it stayed at 4 million copies way back in 1996.

 

[Shinuto]

I know 06 has been used as Sonic's victory theme for too long, but if they ever decide to do unique victory themes and/or result themes for each character…maybe they could use this for Sonic:

Hell no. I mean it's fine...by does NOT fit sonic as a character in terms of Smash, it just fit that particular game.