Official Next Smash - Speculation & Discussion Thread

[Gengar84]

And my point is it's flat out incorrect to say those characters "didn't have a whole lot going on" at the time of their selection. The lack of content or influence from the recent stuff is irrelevant here. Yes they were picked for everything else behind them but being actually relevant also helps them.

“Not a whole lot” isn’t the same thing as absolutely nothing. Most of those recent appearances were more niche and likely didn’t influence their inclusion much. The basis of my argument is that those characters didn’t need to rely on recent promotional ability for their inclusion, which is why I brought them up.

I suppose a more accurate statement should have been “not a whole lot that would have influenced their inclusion in Smash” but I thought that was implied.

 

[Swamp Sensei]

Sakurai did say that Shantae, Lloyd, Dante and Dragonborn were all popular choices. Could they have done well on the ballot?

 

[GoldenYuiitusin]

You've got me thinking. I can understand Knuckles doing well enough on the ballot to give him an Assist Trophy. But why would Knuckles be the Sonic character to (presumably) do the best, instead of Tails or Eggman or Shadow or anyone else? I can only really think of one reason.

Knuckles was planned for Project M before it got shut down (and was later reborn for P+). That could have very easily inspired people to vote Knuckles on the ballot.

Project M (probably) indirectly affected Ultimate

I didn't say he did the best. Just that he was notable enough to be given a role.

For example, we can't tell how well Shadow did in comparison since he was already an Assist to start and couldn't go any further outside of a playable fighter. Though perhaps the tweak in his role adding a second full freeze could be a form of acknowledgement. The only Assist to my knowledge that got tweaked between games was Isaac, who definitely got re-added due to the Ballot.


Going by Source Gaming polls, Shadow generally got more votes out of all Sonic characters, but that only accounts for the sample size used for their polls.

 

[Ivander]

What are some third party characters you think probably did well on the ballot?

• We know Alucard was up there, and probably alongside some of the Belmonts if the Belmonts were enough to convince Sakurai to choose Simon & Richter over Alucard.
• Shovel Knight and Shantae were likely up there, with Shovel Knight becoming an Assist Trophy and his game getting a good number of Spirits, and Shantae(and Risky) not only getting a Spirit, but later a Mii costume and a music track. Sakurai also noted her fan demand, alongside Lloyd Irving, Dante and Dragonborn.
• Not sure on Rayman. On the one hand, support for him certainly increased after that one fake leak and that was around the time of the Ballot. He also got a Spirit in Smash Bros. But otherwise, because he's mostly a nobody in Japan, it's hard to know how well he did on the Ballot.
• Bomberman probably did good since he not only got an Assist Trophy and Spirit, but also a Mii Costume with variant colors, a first for a character Mii costume.
• If there's any character I'm legitimately curious about, it's Sans or an Undertale character in general. Because Undertale was released within half a month just before the Smash Ballot ended and Sakurai mentioned that he was a notably popular request. Which makes me incredibly curious on how much attention Undertale got on the Ballot within that half-a-month timespan between Undertale's release and the end of the Smash Ballot.

 

[dream1ng]

You've got me thinking. I can understand Knuckles doing well enough on the ballot to give him an Assist Trophy. But why would Knuckles be the Sonic character to (presumably) do the best, instead of Tails or Eggman or Shadow or anyone else? I can only really think of one reason.

Knuckles was planned for Project M before it got shut down (and was later reborn for P+). That could have very easily inspired people to vote Knuckles on the ballot.

Project M (probably) indirectly affected Ultimate

Nah, Project M's planned characters aren't well known enough to be that impactful; that's a bit bubbley. It's not like Sami suddenly became an AT.

Knuckles is just generally more popular than Tails or Eggman from what I've seen, and Shadow was an AT. Eggman's popularity last time was in part because the rest of them already had roles.

I mean there's a reason he got the show. The main thing holding him back is the others have more important roles in the series.

 

[Thegameandwatch]

Rayman, Shantae, Shovel Knight are the three off the top of my head

Bomberman and Layton and Jibanyan, probably

I still say Snake probably did super well there

I feel like Sans would have also been high if the Ballot was extended since Undertale was only a month old when it ended.

There was also the fact that there was a massive anti-third party bias at the time, especially with more realistically designed characters. The community at the time really didn't like seeing realistically designed characters get into Smash and had a strong preference for more cartoony mascot-styled characters, so if any third parties did well on the ballot they would probably be ones that fell into the "cartoon mascot" style.

Especially ones that weren’t associated with Nintendo. An example is how Cloud was doubted over characters like Black Mage because Cloud wasn’t in much Nintendo games.

Could be why he was removed in SSF2.

 

[Schnee117]

“Not a whole lot” isn’t the same thing as absolutely nothing. Most of those recent appearances were more niche and likely didn’t influence their inclusion much. The basis of my argument is that those characters didn’t need to rely on recent promotional ability for their inclusion, which is why I brought them up.

The only niche title I mentioned there is Mirror of Fate, having main series and AAA releases is in fact quite a lot going on which is what everything else is.

 

[Dinoman96]

Sakurai did say that Shantae, Lloyd, Dante and Dragonborn were all popular choices. Could they have done well on the ballot?

Shantae and Lloyd maybe, but I highly doubt that for Dante and Dragonborn because their Smash support didn't really take off until Ultimate.

Shantae is still notably the only third party owned character in base game Ultimate to 1. not come from a game that was published by Nintendo in Japan (i.e Rayman, Shovel Knight, Culdcept, etc) and 2. not come from a company that has a playable rep on the roster (i.e Monster Hunter, Virtua Fighter, Bomberman, etc). So to me that always felt like sort of a nod to her popularity on the Smash ballot.

 

[Gengar84]

The only niche title I mentioned there is Mirror of Fate, having main series and AAA releases is in fact quite a lot going on which is what everything else is.

Fair enough. I corrected my statement above. What I meant was “not a whole lot that would have influenced their inclusion in Smash” but I thought that was implied. I don’t think any of them were chosen for promotional reasons despite their recent appearances. Just like I don’t think Operation Galuga would be the reason Bill Rizer could get in.

My choice of wording was poor but the point I was trying to make is that characters can get in for reasons beyond being purely promotional. Many people automatically dismiss older characters because they don’t have anything going on to promote. You’re right that these all did have something going on around that timeframe but they all got in for reasons beyond that. If they were chosen for their legacy, which I suspect they were, then those recent appearances were almost irrelevant to their inclusion and would have gotten in anyways. If that’s true, I think it still shows that being promotional isn’t a requirement. Does that make sense?

 

[Opossum]

Sakurai did say that Shantae, Lloyd, Dante and Dragonborn were all popular choices. Could they have done well on the ballot?

In fairness he used the same sort of phrasing to indicate popularity that he did for Sans, who only existed for about a month before the closure of the ballot and before Undertale mania took hold.

Contrary to what a lot of people seem to think, Sakurai and the team are absolutely aware of like, general fan requests even outside the ballot. Some characters just have that tangible of a level of popularity, so Sakurai saying a character had a lot of requests doesn't necessarily mean those requests were ballot-based.

 

[Dee Dude]

You know, I’m still pretty annoyed that the Ballot was also a deciding factor for Ultimate, how was anyone supposed to know that?

If they had just asked “what character would you like to see as a fighter in the Super Smash Bros. series?” instead asking who we specifically want as DLC in Smash 4, that could’ve been more clear.

 

[dream1ng]

Sakurai did say that Shantae, Lloyd, Dante and Dragonborn were all popular choices. Could they have done well on the ballot?

I doubt the latter two did. The ballot was still during the Nintendo-association phase.

Even Dante's demand didn't really lift off until after the Mii costumes were likely already decided.

I'm guessing "popular" just means popular in any sense, like specifically demanded, or just a generally popular character.

 

[GoldenYuiitusin]

Shantae and Lloyd maybe, but I highly doubt that for Dante and Dragonborn because their Smash support didn't really take off until Ultimate.

Shantae is still notably the only third party owned character in base game Ultimate to 1. not come from a game that was published by Nintendo in Japan (i.e Rayman, Shovel Knight, Culdcept, etc) and 2. not come from a company that has a playable rep on the roster (i.e Monster Hunter, Virtua Fighter, Bomberman, etc). So to me that always felt like sort of a nod to her popularity on the Smash ballot.

Actually, there's a story behind Shantae (and Risky) getting Spirits.

Matt Bozon basically emailed Nintendo concept art sheets for them and said "do what you want with this".

So easy Spirit additions for little cost.

 

[Dinoman96]

Actually, there's a story behind Shantae (and Risky) getting Spirits.

Matt Bozon basically emailed Nintendo concept art sheets for them and said "do what you want with this".

So easy Spirit additions for little cost.

I see that now.

Shantae Creator Matt Bozon Talks Shantae’s Past, Present, and Future

In Shantae creator Matt Bozon interview, learn more about the latest game's design, past games, and how "Shantae needs an anime."

www.siliconera.com

How did Shantae end up as a Spirit in Super Smash Bros Ultimate and how much input did you have on it?

Bozon: We’ve been working with Nintendo for something like 25 years, and they know that we’re diehard fans. In this case we just sent over some artwork to be used at their discretion, on the off chance they could include her in some way. We didn’t know that she’d be a Spirit, or even what a Spirit was! We were shocked to see Shantae show up during a Smash Direct. It was awesome! Before that moment, we didn’t know any details. In cases like that, our M.O. is to zip it and wait.

I always wondered if this is also why Cuphead ended up getting a Mii outfit and also spirits, because its creator said back in 2019 (after it was released for the Switch) that he really wanted Cuphead and Mugman to appear in Smash Ultimate, and the Mii outfits/spirits were obviously a consolation prize.

 

[Dee Dude]

I got bummed out when Crash didn’t get in Ultimate but it made sense in hindsight.

His franchise was dead in the water during the Ballot way before N.Sane Trilogy happened or his Skylanders appearance so no one really bothered to give him a heavy campaign, there was very very little demand for him even up in early Ultimate speculation until the Fighter Pass DLC happened.

I think what gave Crash a colossal boost in high requests was Banjo, who was not only a cartoony platformer animal like him but was the first character who proved that 100% western created IPs CAN get a playable character in Smash. (Diddy, K.Rool and Dark Samus don’t count because they come from Japanese created series)

 

[TheFirstPoppyBro]

I don’t think Simon was added to promote Lords of Shadow.

Didn't Sakurai say at one point that Castlevania was a pretty popular request? In which case Simon would just be because of that, but the franchise still had stuff going on at the time.

 

[KneeOfJustice99]

What are some third party characters you think probably did well on the ballot?

I reckon a "dark horse" of sorts from a modern perspective would probably be the Team Fortress 2 classes collectively, or at least Heavy. While I don't see them discussed all that much nowadays, I can't help but remember Heavy specifically being really high in fan polls from the era, though Scout and Soldier were occasional sights as well - interestingly, far more commonplace than other Valve candidates like Chell or Gordon Freeman, who've respectively seen a slight rise in popularity.

 

[fogbadge]

What are some third party characters you think probably did well on the ballot?

I assume you mean apart from the Belmonts, B&K and Sora?

well I don’t think it was ever said but I imagine the Tekken crew probably did quite well.

Master Chief probably got a fair amount of shouts

Shadow (the hedgehog) probably did well. I can believe a few sonic characters did but he probably did the best

 

[Dinoman96]

I got bummed out when Crash didn’t get in Ultimate but it made sense in hindsight.

His franchise was dead in the water during the Ballot way before N.Sane Trilogy happened or his Skylanders appearance so no one really bothered to give him a heavy campaign, there was very very little demand for him even up in early Ultimate speculation.

I think what got Crash a colossal boost in high requests was Banjo, the first character who was not only a cartoony platformer animal like him but was the first character who proved that 100% western created series CAN get a playable character in Smash. (Diddy, K.Rool and Dark Samus don’t count because they come from Japanese created series)

tbh Crash N. Sane Trilogy being one of the first notable big third party games coming to Nintendo Switch in 2018 was what in my eyes really jump started the initial support for him, kinda like how DOOM 2016 being announced for it in 2017 sparked a lot more interest in Doomguy being playable. Then Banjo got announced and that's when the support for him truly went up through the roof as you mentioned.

It's kinda funny that one of the big reasons to why Smash Ultimate saw so much more interest and excitement surrounding third party fighters...is because of Nintendo finally getting some sort of decent third party support going on for the Switch. Imagine going back to 2015 and telling people that the next Nintendo platform was going to have Crash, DOOM, Overwatch, Devil May Cry, etc, you'd been laughed out of the room after how the Wii U (which basically only had super diehard Nintendo loyalists and some indie developers supporting it) went.

 

[Dee Dude]

Heavy would unironically be a hilariously awesome Smash fighter but does Japan even like let alone know about TF2?

 

[Ivander]

that he really wanted Cuphead and Mughead to appear in Smash Ultimate

It's Mugman. Mughead is the Duck Twacy villain.

 

[Swamp Sensei]

Heavy would unironically be a hilariously awesome Smash fighter but does Japan even like let alone know about TF2?

It's known, but it's not particularly popular.

From what I understand the only hero shooters to popular there are Overwatch and Marvel Rivals.

 

[Opossum]

It's known, but it's not particularly popular.

From what I understand the only hero shooters to popular there are Overwatch and Marvel Rivals.

Apex and Valorant are also pretty damn popular there.

 

[Ivander]

It's known, but it's not particularly popular.

From what I understand the only hero shooters to popular there are Overwatch and Marvel Rivals.

Would Apex Legends technically count as a Hero shooter? Sure, it's a Battle Royale similar to Fortnite, but it has the selectable Heroes with different abilities much like Overwatch and Marvel Rivals.

 

[Gengar84]

Didn't Sakurai say at one point that Castlevania was a pretty popular request? In which case Simon would just be because of that, but the franchise still had stuff going on at the time.

Yeah, I apologize for my misstatement. They clearly did have at least something going on at the time that I had forgotten. That’s my mistake. My point still stands that they’re all examples of characters getting in Smash for reasons other than being promotional.

 

[DarthEnderX]

Out of curiosity; would you prefer Waluigi's Wrecking Crew to be more of a puzzle-platformer like the original title, or a far more puzzle-oriented game like Wrecking Crew '98?

Puzzle platformer.

I want a 2D Red Faction: Guerrilla.

What are some third party characters you think probably did well on the ballot?

The ones that were Fighters or Miis in Ultimate.

 

[GoldenYuiitusin]

Y'all not ready for Freddy.

(Ah nostalgia posting this gif on my old account)

 

[Swamp Sensei]

Apex and Valorant are also pretty damn popular there.

Ah yeah, that's true.

PubG and Fortnite too. Whoever said Japan doesn't like shooters is wrong.

 

[Thegameandwatch]

I feel like popularity in Japan isn’t always a factor like how Sonic isn’t as popular in Japan compared to the west.

 

[Dinoman96]

I feel like popularity in Japan isn’t always a factor like how Sonic isn’t as popular in Japan compared to the west.

I guess being the most requested third party character up that point was enough to get over that obstacle.

 

[Gengar84]

I feel like popularity in Japan isn’t always a factor like how Sonic isn’t as popular in Japan compared to the west.

I think it’s always a factor but not a requirement. Historically, most characters in Smash have been popular in Japan but there have been some exceptions that were added for their popularity elsewhere. I think if a character is a huge global phenomenon or has a strong history with Nintendo, that can overcome the relative lack of popularity in Japan specifically.

 

[Guynamednelson]

I feel like popularity in Japan isn’t always a factor like how Sonic isn’t as popular in Japan compared to the west.

They at least know who Sonic is, it's just that Japanese gamers are more likely to understand Sega isn't just The Sonic Company.

 

[ninjahmos]

OK, quick question:

If Shadow got into Smash and had Chaos Control as part of his moveset, would it work better as his Up Special or something else?

 

[SPEN18]

You know, I’m still pretty annoyed that the Ballot was also a deciding factor for Ultimate, how was anyone supposed to know that?

If they had just asked “what character would you like to see as a fighter in the Super Smash Bros. series?” instead asking who we specifically want as DLC in Smash 4, that could’ve been more clear.

Personally, I never doubted for a second that the Ballot would be used for more than 4's DLC. Like, once Sakurai and Nintendo see the results, it's not like they can just purposefully forget about them.
The more unclear part was the exact extent to which the Ballot would be used in the future (and it's still unclear how much influence it might have on Smash 6, though I'd guess less than for Ult due to being more dated now, but not zero). So it was fair to doubt that it would have had the impact that it had on Ult. I can add that much.
But once you're privileged to a list of massively popular fan requests and have a large bulk of actual data on what people want, you can't really unsee it lol. Should anyone have really expected them to go, "okay, we gave them their 1-2 DLC characters, now let's wash our hands of this and never think about the other characters again," or anything like that?
That's why I thought people were making a mistake by withholding votes for AT'd characters over the debate about whether same-game AT promos were possible, no matter where they stood on said debate. Or for Ridley, in that same vein. But not everybody is prepared for the possibility of waiting multiple cycles for their vote to potentially pay off, so I get why some groups would've wanted to focus on who they thought had the best chance in the immediate future.

 

[Watuna4343]

A bit of a different topic BUT since we are in the topic of Smash characters speculation, I'm interested in doing a turn towards removed characters' speculation.

Let's assume that for the next Smash game, we find out somehow (say a leak, a report etc.) that among the cut characters, only 3 are Nintendo (1st party) unique characters (so non-clones basically). Which 3 Nintendo unique/non-clone fighters do you think would be the ones most likely to get cut in the next game? The ones that I think will miss out are from the most over-repped series, so Piranha Plant (Mario), Corrin (Fire Emblem) and Mewtwo (Pokémon). Mewtwo was obviously the one of the 3 I was the most uncertain about as I had other candidates for the 3rd spot (Wii Fit Trainer or ROB) but ultimately the fact that it's part of an over-repped series and that it's been cut before makes me think it might leave again. But yeah, in a scenario where we found out that 3 Nintendo unique/non-clone fighters are among the cut fighters in the next game, who do you think they'd be?

 

[Kirby Dragons]

I really don't remember, but I've asked this? If Waluigi got his own video game series, what genre would it be in your opinion? However, I remember that I had mentioned other times that Waluigi should get his own series so that he could have moves based on that for the Super Smash Bros series, which is not really true, because whether he gets his own video game or not, I would say that Waluigi can come as a newcomer to the Super Smash Bros. series.

My thoughts are a party game, though that might feel redundant with him always being in Mario Party. Maybe a rhythm game?

 

[Dee Dude]

A bit of a different topic BUT since we are in the topic of Smash characters speculation, I'm interested in doing a turn towards removed characters' speculation.

Let's assume that for the next Smash game, we find out somehow (say a leak, a report etc.) that among the cut characters, only 3 are Nintendo (1st party) unique characters (so non-clones basically). Which 3 Nintendo unique/non-clone fighters do you think would be the ones most likely to get cut in the next game? The ones that I think will miss out are from the most over-repped series, so Piranha Plant (Mario), Corrin (Fire Emblem) and Mewtwo (Pokémon). Mewtwo was obviously the one of the 3 I was the most uncertain about as I had other candidates for the 3rd spot (Wii Fit Trainer or ROB) but ultimately the fact that it's part of an over-repped series and that it's been cut before makes me think it might leave again. But yeah, in a scenario where we found out that 3 Nintendo unique/non-clone fighters are among the cut fighters in the next game, who do you think they'd be?

Eh, I’m personally getting tired of “who’s getting cut/removed from the roster” speculations because outside here, that’s all people ever talk about when discussing Smash 6, not newcomer wishlists, not moveset revamps, not new stages, just cuts.

It’s too negative for me but to answer, I’d say 3 characters that come from bloated series like Mario/Pokemon/FE like you said.

 

[Watuna4343]

Eh, I’m personally getting tired of “who’s getting cut/removed from the roster” speculations because outside here, that’s all people ever talk about when discussing Smash 6, not newcomer wishlists, not moveset revamps, not new stages, just cuts.

It’s too negative for me but to answer, I’d say 3 characters that come from bloated series like Mario/Pokemon/FE like you said.

I mean, hey, there's a lot of newcomer speculation and wishlists too, I've sure seen a lot of that. What I do think is that the 'roster cut' formula that admittedly is genuinely tired is the whole 'cutting the roster in half' thing. That yes, genuinely gets tired in part because it's never gonna happen, but I don't think that the veterans' chances in a generous scenario are that discussed tbh

 

[Kirby Dragons]

A bit of a different topic BUT since we are in the topic of Smash characters speculation, I'm interested in doing a turn towards removed characters' speculation.

Let's assume that for the next Smash game, we find out somehow (say a leak, a report etc.) that among the cut characters, only 3 are Nintendo (1st party) unique characters (so non-clones basically). Which 3 Nintendo unique/non-clone fighters do you think would be the ones most likely to get cut in the next game? The ones that I think will miss out are from the most over-repped series, so Piranha Plant (Mario), Corrin (Fire Emblem) and Mewtwo (Pokémon). Mewtwo was obviously the one of the 3 I was the most uncertain about as I had other candidates for the 3rd spot (Wii Fit Trainer or ROB) but ultimately the fact that it's part of an over-repped series and that it's been cut before makes me think it might leave again. But yeah, in a scenario where we found out that 3 Nintendo unique/non-clone fighters are among the cut fighters in the next game, who do you think they'd be?

I'm seconding Plant and Corrin, but for the third character, I would say maybe Palutena.

 

[fogbadge]

OK, quick question:

If Shadow got into Smash and had Chaos Control as part of his moveset, would it work better as his Up Special or something else?

well it would work as a teleport move. but I think it'd be better as part of his FS