It's really tough to say because Fire Emblem can go in so many directions. I'm going to cover Byleth as well because I think he's in a similar boat.
Fire Emblem's individual fighters are quite popular and the series itself is a major, flagship Nintendo IP (even if Engage felt like a misstep commercially). That being said, 6 unique fighters is a lot for any franchise and basically every FE rep that isn't Marth is an outdated promotional character to some extent, so we'll very likely see some cuts.
is guaranteed.
is basically the face of Echo Fighters as a concept, so she'll return if echoes do. I largely agree that
is too derivative and unimportant in his series to realistically make the base roster.
is tied to Roy.
has been in the game for a decade without their popularity ever being rehabilitated and Fates is kind of a divisive and arbitrary game to represent Fire Emblem in 2024.
Ike, Robin, and Byleth are all really tough because they have a lot of merit behind their inclusion:
- received the most focus of any Fire Emblem character that wasn't Marth in Ultimate's pre-release, has the longest legacy in Smash, and he's (arguably) the most popular pre-3DS era Fire Emblem character internationally.
- was the first real Avatar in Fire Emblem, represents tomes and the weapon durability mechanic, and his game saved and revolutionized the series.
- is from the best-selling game in the series, represents the weapon triangle and the general idea of strategically employing specialized options in response to certain actions from the enemy, and he's the most popular competitively.
It's tough to prioritize them, but I would roughly say
>
>
, although it's pretty minor.
Marth (and Lucina, if echoes return) and one of Ike, Robin, and Byleth are a guaranteed minimum. Marth/Lucina and two of the beforementioned three is our most likely outcome. All four (plus Lucina) is our ceiling.