I do wonder if people are overestimating Sonic’s chances of getting anything new, given that it’s still a series with very Western-skewed popularity in a primarily Japan-focused crossover. I wouldn’t be surprised if they pick something from Sega with more even east-west popularity instead.
Overestimating? Maybe - I do think Shadow is bordering on being overrated right now, since there's a degree of recency bias involved in how much of a no-brainer he's perceived to be. I don't think he's the most likely third party character. I do think Shadow is the most likely Sonic character, which is something fairly likely to happen... but yknow, no third party character can ever truly be a guarantee.
Although I think for most the writing is on the wall that now is the time to increase Sonic's character count if ever. The series is in a MUCH healthier state post-Ultimate and after Sephiroth's reveal many are prepping for the series to continue expanding on mainstay third party series. Sonic isn't as MASSIVE in Japan as it is over here, but it's still visible and from the looks of it is still treated as Sega's mascot series. And Smash tends to skew toward western tastes way, way more than people like to give it credit for. I mean, say what you will about its quality, but Sonic actually does have some of the most representation out of any third party in the game currently (two ATs, two stages, a decent sized crop of music and a lot of spirits).
The assumption this rests on is also that there can be only one Sega newcomer. I think there are a number of scenarios where two Sega characters - one from Sonic, one from something else - are achievable. I don't think Smash is as concerned about company balance as people think, but even putting that thought aside we can easily get Shadow as a Sonic derivative to some degree while putting a stronger foot forward toward a fully original character from a different series. Or perhaps Sega just gets its dues via DLC, which will obviously be plotted out during the game's development this time around. As we know it's quite a bit easier to sell brand new series as DLC packs, and the likes of Shadow or Chun-Li for example are probably better suited to supplementing their series' content in the base game.
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But yeah, I think the main point I want to make here is that Smash is hardly a "Japan-focused crossover" to the extent people frame it to be. Final Fantasy was the first third party series to take the step forward into getting a new unique character but notably 1. actually sells better than Sonic and 2. is popular worldwide. I mean, Sephiroth is an icon just about as much as Eggman or Shadow is. Within the last few games I can also cite Little Mac, Duck Hunt, Ridley, King K. Rool, Simon Belmont, Dark Samus and Banjo & Kazooie as distinctly western-skewed characters. Punch-Out was never a big hit overseas, Duck Hunt was not bundled with Super Mario Bros in Japan like it was here. Metroid is much bigger here as well. Simon is our guy, Richter is theirs.
Other additions play to pretty wide appeal on a worldwide scale. Inkling, Isabelle, Piranha Plant, Steve, Kazuya, Sora. The only characters from Ultimate I can really point out as being regionally skewed are Hero, since DQ is so remarkably big in Japan that it just can't compare out here, and Terry since SNK / NEO-GEO was not a staple of American arcades the way it was in Japan and Latin America. Maybe Joker at the time but that one aged terrifically and Persona is big everywhere (even so, they felt confident enough to reveal him at a western award show). If anyone gets favorably treated, it's honestly us overseas.
I suppose it's Japan-focused in the sense that we still only have Microsoft on the roster in terms of western developers. But that's another topic that doesn't really reflect on Sonic one way or the other, since he's still a Japanese character.
Sorry, I wrote a bit more than I expected. But I wanted to talk about this misconception a bit!
