Official Next Smash - Speculation & Discussion Thread

[HyperSomari64]

Sonic Movie 3 trailer dropped

Sonic is in Smash, so i'ts semi-related for this thread

 

[Freduardo]

Do you think there’s any particular third party characters that might be more likely now that they have increased relevance during the time the next Smash’s roster would have been selected? The large majority of my most wanted characters haven’t had anything particularly interesting going on for the last few years. The one character on my list who has is Jinx but I’m not sure the likelihood of a pc focused western character. Battletoads got a reboot in 2020 but I’m not sure if that’s too old by now to have a big impact. We just got a new Contra game recently so that never hurts even if it wasn’t exactly mainstream. I could see Shadow the Hedgehog being particularly relevant around the time the game might get revealed.

Minsc and Boo from Baldur's Gate.

Completely unlikely, but I'd dig it.

 

[HyperSomari64]

Minsc and Boo from Baldur's Gate.

Completely unlikely, but I'd dig it.

I know these games are based on Dungeons & Dragons

What if they brought mii costumes from the ones from the Capcom beat 'em ups?

 

[The Stoopid Unikorn]

Sonic Movie 3 trailer dropped

Sonic is in Smash, so i'ts semi-related for this thread

They need to give Shadow a gun in the next Smash.

 

[GoldenYuiitusin]

They need to give Shadow a gun in the next Smash.

This but unironic.

Moveset creators are cowards for not letting Shadow use firearms :V

 

[Gengar84]

Minsc and Boo from Baldur's Gate.

Completely unlikely, but I'd dig it.

Their Magic: the Gathering Planeswalker card is ridiculously overpowered and probably the strongest in the game. That’s the only way I know them but they’d be interesting.

 

[fogbadge]

They need to give Shadow a gun in the next Smash.

well there’s already a few guns he can use

 

[The Stoopid Unikorn]

This but unironic.

Moveset creators are cowards for not letting Shadow use firearms :V

You say that, but him not having guns in his moveset is actually truer to how Shadow the Hedgehog works as a game.

He never enters a level with a gun in his hand. He just picks up whatever he finds.

So what I'm saying is that we need firearms as Sonic items in the next Smash

 

[BuckleyTim]

As a Shadow fan I am having the time of my life right now.

I still think Eggman and Tails needs to find their ways into Smash eventually as well, but I am fully on the Edgy Hedgy hype train for the foreseeable future.

 

[Perkilator]

All memes aside, there are already fantasy guns that appear as items in Smash. Shadow can just use those if he were to be a newcomer (it’s at least truer to StH 2005, for what it’s worth).

 

[Gengar84]

I still prefer Knuckles but Shadow looks like he’s got some cool abilities that could make for a fun moveset. I haven’t really played a Sonic game since Sonic Adventure 2 but Shadow’s venom symbiote powers from the recent generations game looked really cool from the trailer.

 

[HyperSomari64]

StH 2005

Wasn't StH released in 2006?

But really, acronyms can be confusing at times.

 

[Louie G.]

I want Shadow the least out of the "big four" Sonic candidates, but it's hard to deny his prevalence as of late and I don't feel that momentum will slow down any time soon. I think people are overestimating just how much of a slam dunk he is, but I don't fault you for believing he's the frontrunner as things stand. Helps that he has had visible fan demand since even Brawl... so have Tails and Knuckles, but I'd say Shadow's has persisted the longest. Especially after he missed out on Ultimate, when everyone pretty much treated him to be a no-brainer echo fighter.

In fairness to Tails, Knuckles and Eggman though, these characters appear more frequently. In respect to Tails and Knuckles, it's been a great few years for Sonic's friends re-establishing their series prominence. Shadow is the most popular supporting character, but pops up more sporadically in exchange for these moments to be more of an event. He's prominent enough in marketing and so forth where it wouldn't be all that jarring if he was the second character, but on paper Tails or Eggman probably function more directly as the "next in line". As it stands I think I'd have Shadow slotted in, but in the back of my mind I still think Tails has a better chance than people are giving him credit for.

Moveset wise I think Shadow has sort of a blessing and a curse scenario, where he would probably be the most derivative of Sonic out of all the potential candidates. But that also makes him an easier character to implement, as what I will assume might end up being an Isabelle-esque semiclone (in that I think Shadow would have one or two new special moves). I actually kinda like this approach better than Shadow being fully unique - the new Black Doom stuff is cool but seems like a one time thing, guns and motorcycles are funny but ought to just be a cosmetic entrance / victory thing. So long as the next game fixes Sonic in a meaningful way, I just like the idea of a more brutal version of the character with maybe some dark / chaos energy flourish.

 

[SharkLord]

Do you think there’s any particular third party characters that might be more likely now that they have increased relevance during the time the next Smash’s roster would have been selected? The large majority of my most wanted characters haven’t had anything particularly interesting going on for the last few years. The one character on my list who has is Jinx but I’m not sure the likelihood of a pc focused western character. Battletoads got a reboot in 2020 but I’m not sure if that’s too old by now to have a big impact. We just got a new Contra game recently so that never hurts even if it wasn’t exactly mainstream. I could see Shadow the Hedgehog being particularly relevant around the time the game might get revealed.

Yeah, Shadow definitely counts. During the 2010's, everyone beyond Sonic, Tails, Eggman, and occasionally Knuckles and Amy were shoved into the background. Shadow popped up a few times, but he was very much out of focus after basically becoming the second main character for a time. Now that he's had the whole marketing campaign around his game and his movie appearance, I think it's safe to say Shadow's back in business.

I'd also make an argument for Monster Hunter. When Ultimate's roster was set, it was pretty big in Japan but not that big overseas, on top of the tight newcomer selection. It made sense to just throw in an AT/boss and call it a day. Two years later, World suddenly sold gangbusters, enough that its sales records for Capcom still haven't been beaten, and made Monster Hunter a big name in the West as well. And then, three years later, Rise released as a timed exclusive and sold gangbusters on the Switch alone, with Nintendo even giving it a marketing push in their directs. And now Wilds is gearing up to a massive release for Capcom. Even if Smash 6's roster was settled before Wilds was a thing, I think Sakurai and Nintendo would still have time to account for the success of World and Rise. Either way, I think Monster Hunter's priority levels have massively spiked since Ultimate.

 

[GoldenYuiitusin]

Do you think there’s any particular third party characters that might be more likely now that they have increased relevance during the time the next Smash’s roster would have been selected?

The biggest one that comes to mind is 2B.

She has that Joker-esque prominence going on.

 

[Gengar84]

Here’s a question that I’m stuck on. If they ever do another Smash Ballot or something similar and we only get one vote, are you planning to vote for your absolute favorite character even if they’re not at all likely or would you narrow it down to characters you feel actually have a decent chance and vote for your favorite among those? I’m always kind of conflicted there because I feel like if I don’t vote for my favorite character, no one else will but that also kind of feels like throwing your vote away.

 

[Louie G.]

Do you think there’s any particular third party characters that might be more likely now that they have increased relevance during the time the next Smash’s roster would have been selected?

Honestly? I'll make another case for Chun-Li here. Street Fighter 6 has been a rousing success and helped revitalize excitement for the series in a fresh new way. Surely Street Fighter was doing fine enough to warrant Ken in Ultimate, but I think there's something to be said about the way Smash treats Street Fighter vs what the series has built up for itself recently. In Smash, the series remains a celebration of the classical Street Fighter II era - something I've rambled about before. But now I think SF6 has brought attention back to everything beyond that, and would demand more current focus.

On the topic of fighting games, definitely Sol Badguy or any Guilty Gear character. The release of Guity Gear Strive introduced the series to a bigger audience than ever, firmly taking the series from more of a hardcore, cult classic status more akin to Darkstalkers into sharing space with the biggest names of the genre. It seems safe for me to say that if we get another fighting game character next game, it'll either be from Guilty Gear or maybe Virtua Fighter.

And we've already been talking about Sonic, but I think that works more generally than just Shadow. The brand was in a pretty dire state when Ultimate came out - the last game was Sonic Forces, many of the mandates that kept Sonic feeling stale were still in place. But the IP has really flourished as of late, with blockbuster movie releases and a critically acclaimed new mainline entry in the series in Sonic Frontiers. Since then Sonic has been an icon back on the rise, with cross-collaborations all over the place and games that are actually making people excited again. And all of the major side characters have seen a return to the spotlight, with more prominent game roles, movie roles, merchandising and what not propelling Tails, Knuckles, Shadow and Amy into a healthy place.

 

[fogbadge]

I still prefer Knuckles but Shadow looks like he’s got some cool abilities that could make for a fun moveset. I haven’t really played a Sonic game since Sonic Adventure 2 but Shadow’s venom symbiote powers from the recent generations game looked really cool from the trailer.

the word is silly

 

[dream1ng]

Assuming the Sonic character is unique, Sakurai seems more like the kind of guy that would opt for the Genesis era, Sonic's commercial and cultural peak. That's usually how it tends to go with third-parties, he draws from their highest points. And considering there are more core, longstanding, also popular characters from that era, I don't see Shadow being the choice.

Now if the character is a clone of some sort, yeah, Shadow has a great chance.

 

[Will]

I always thought choosing the version of Wario’s castle where Captain Syrup was trying to… I don’t even know, ruin the foundation of his home? Somehow drown him from the basement up?, was always a weird choice.

 

[Louie G.]

And considering there are more core, longstanding, also popular characters from that era, I don't see Shadow being the choice.

Well the catch is that the other two points are correct, but they are not more popular characters. Shadow is the most popular character after Sonic himself, and it's honestly not that close. And post-Ultimate he's easily the most highly requested / frequently discussed.

That's kind of what blurs the line here, because otherwise I'm in full agreement with everything you said but Sonic the Hedgehog is a little bit of an anomaly. Clearly from a critical, commercial standpoint you can't beat the Genesis era. And Shadow is not a "main character" who appears in nearly every mainline title like Tails or Eggman. But he has such titanic popularity and omnipresent merchandising that it's difficult to disqualify him from trumping the others.

He was the first Assist Trophy too, for whatever that's worth. This year is skewing perspective a bit because it's so Shadow-focused, but it's clear that he was always seen as a major character among the pack even in the context of Smash itself.

 

[Swamp Sensei]

Tails and Knuckles had to work together to market the second Sonic movie.

Shadow is carrying the third by himself.

 

[Louie G.]

Shadow is carrying the third by himself.

This is Gerald Robotnik erasure.

 

[Stratos]

Here’s a question that I’m stuck on. If they ever do another Smash Ballot or something similar and we only get one vote, are you planning to vote for your absolute favorite character even if they’re not at all likely or would you narrow it down to characters you feel actually have a decent chance and vote for your favorite among those? I’m always kind of conflicted there because I feel like if I don’t vote for my favorite character, no one else will but that also kind of feels like throwing your vote away.

I have many characters in mind and I would like to vote for them all even if that's not possible, but if I had to vote for one then I wouldn't know which one to vote for.

 

[The Stoopid Unikorn]

Assuming the Sonic character is unique, Sakurai seems more like the kind of guy that would opt for the Genesis era, Sonic's commercial and cultural peak. That's usually how it tends to go with third-parties, he draws from their highest points. And considering there are more core, longstanding, also popular characters from that era, I don't see Shadow being the choice.

Now if the character is a clone of some sort, yeah, Shadow has a great chance.

This is the same guy who notably went for a Belmont because introducing the Castlevania franchise to Smash.

While this is absolutely a valid route to take, it's not the "commercial and cultural peak" because that would be Symphony of the Night and I don't think anyone outside of DarthEnder would try to debate otherwise because it's where the second half of the Metroidvania genre came from, showing its influence.

Though funnily enough, Alucard was considered for the playable spot before Sakurai settled on a Belmont, showing that he never discarded SotN and simply prioritized the original platformers.

There's no real constant with third parties and how they're represented, no matter how much you try to find a pattern.

This is Gerald Robotnik erasure.

It's also Maria eras- Oh wait, her getting removed is entirely her appeal

 

[GoldenYuiitusin]

This is Gerald Robotnik erasure.

He said carrying. Not Carreying.

 

[Mushroomguy12]

Tails and Knuckles had to work together to market the second Sonic movie.

Shadow is carrying the third by himself.

Amy and Rogue seeing Sega have the time to introduce both Tails and Knuckles in the second movie and somehow not have the time to introduce either of them in this movie despite both of them playing big roles in Sonic Adventure 2:

Oh but here's a billion more human characters!

 

[SharkLord]

Something I will say regarding the Sonic situation is that attendance count isn't the end-all be-all - See Anna and arguably Impa. Obviously, Team Sonic and Eggman aren't at that level, since they often have actually important roles and aren't just recurring NPCs. Still, I'd argue that none of those characters have been pushed to the same degree Shadow has. Let's break it down.

In the Genesis era, there was no Shadow there. Sonic was always the guy, but Tails was given a role as the Player 2, Knuckles was given his own campaign, and Eggman was always there for the boss fights. And all three stuck around for most of the later games, so it's not like they were only relevant in this era. Tails and Knuckles even got to head some spinoff titles - Tails even got two! However...

Come the Adventure era, and Tails and Knuckles were just parts of the greater ensemble cast. Yeah, they were always there, but they weren't given the status of main character. SA1 made a big deal about everyone having their own campaign, but everyone was just part of an ensemble, with only Sonic ever being highlighted as the main character. And in SA2, Heroes, and '06, Tails and Knuckles were just members of Team Sonic, a supporting character to Sonic. (Though, they were front and center for Heroes' marketing alongside Sonic, I'll give you that)

But from his first appearance, Shadow was pushed as the Sonic's double, the other main character, and the face of the Dark story. Not to say that the other four playable characters were completely irrelevant, but they weren't given the same push Sonic and Shadow were. And Shadow was just going to be a one-off character, but he was so beloved they brought him back for Heroes. Mind you, at this point Shadow was still "just" a popular character - Team Sonic was the main draw, with Tails and Knuckles right there on the boxart. But then they gave Shadow an entire mainline game to himself. Not just a spinoff for a niche system/add-on, a full-budget installment. And then Sonic '06 happened, and the main characters pushed were Sonic, Shadow, and Silver, with everyone else being supporting roles.

Of course, '06 went to hell, and Sega rushed to do damage control, which included trimming down the cast. Unleashed just focused on Sonic in gameplay, with his new buddy Chip being the most prominent NPCs. Tails and Amy are also just NPCs, and Knuckles doesn't even appear. The 2010's followed suit, with Tails, Knuckles, and Amy only existing to cheer on Sonic (and sometimes his new friend Sonic) as he runs around. Granted, Shadow only appeared for Generations in this era, so Team Sonic technically had it better by virtue of appearing, but they were still far from main character status. And despite his lack of appearances, polls still showed that Shadow was the second most popular character in the series, after Sonic himself, something they verbally acknowledged in Sonic Boom. It was also enough that he was the Assist Trophy added when Sonic got into Smash, and the only AT shown off in Smash 4's intro.

Mania made a big deal about Tails and Knuckles being playable again, that much I'll give. The main draw was just having a Classic Sonic game again, but Tails and Knuckles was still part of it. But it's also worth noting that with Forces, Sega was confident enough in Shadow to let him have a DLC campaign all to himself. (A rather underwhelming campaign, granted, but it's the thought that counts). Aaaaand then they kinda stopped making major releases until Frontiers, which did give some extra development for the Classic cast, but never really elevated any one character over Sonic. Even when they got them playable again in Final Horizons, they were still something of an ensemble cast, with Sonic ultimately getting the main focus. But when they brought back Shadow, he was front and center - He got a movie, a game all to himself, and a personal Fearless Year of Shadow as part of his marketing push.

So to summarize this probably-too-long-to-read yapathon, Tails and Knuckles make more appearances, but they're usually given supporting roles, and when they are playable, it's usually just as a supporting role. It's especially prominent after Unleashed, when most games went back to Sonic as the one playable character, which removed Tails' status as the Player 2. Shadow doesn't appear as often, but when he does, he usually gets promoted as a main character in his own right, heading a major campaign or even being the sole playable character himself. And while Shadow's main character role faded for a bit during the 2010s, he's gotten a big marketing push and a well-recieved game all to himself this year, so I think it's safe to say he's back in action.

...I could probably discuss Eggman a bit but this post is already longer than I realized and I feel like anything on Eggman would get drowned out in all the paragraphs

 

[ninjahmos]

This but unironic.

Moveset creators are cowards for not letting Shadow use firearms :V

No. SEGA are the cowards for not letting Shadow use firearms.

Too bad his first standalone game didn't do so well.