Official Next Smash - Speculation & Discussion Thread

[Swamp Sensei]

The most natural thing for Platinum to do would be to make Bayonetta 4, but Kamiya, the main writer for that series has left and honestly Bayonetta 3 has burned any bridges for fans wanting a sequel

So guys...

Is the Bayonetta franchise really in that much trouble?

 

[LiveStudioAudience]

Give Bayonetta enough distance from the controversy of 3 maybe paired with the softest of soft reboots and I think the next game could be reasonable success. It's an IP that could also benefit from a crossover game within the genre, not only to lessen the burden of Bayo having to sell the game by herself but also to generally refresh the series a bit.

I don't think Bayonetta x Devil May Cry is necessarily happening, but something along those lines could do a lot of good.

 

[NintenRob]

Bayonetta is in a really weird spot.

Bayonetta 3 did NOT have the same big success as other switch titles. Selling less than the Wii U port is not great. Now obviously selling a million isn't anything to scoff at, but the game having a very rough development and long development that forced to Nintendo to step in and say "hey guys, maybe don't make this game open world if you don't know what you're doing." Doesn't paint a pretty picture. On top of that, the English VA turned out to be a nutcase and the JP VA has sadly passed away. Kamiya leaving is just another wrench here (I actually think if another Bayo game is made, it's better off without him, but getting it started without him might prove difficult)

I think, Nintendo probably still values the Bayonetta IP as one of their go to mature games. But I think confidence in Platinum might be a little low after 3, and after Kamiya left, Platinum might not even be interested in more Bayonetta games

 

[Swamp Sensei]

Selling less than the Wii U port is not great. Now obviously selling a million isn't anything to scoff at

I keep trying to find data on current Bayonetta 3 sales, but all I can find is that it sold over one million units in around three months after launch.

Surely it's done better by now, it's been more than a year.

 

[Hadokeyblade]

So... What would it take for you to consider these five franchises a lock for the next game?

Ring Fit Adventure
Astral Chain
Famicom Detective Club
Golden Sun
Advance Wars

I dont consider it a lock but i actually kinda think Golden Sun is likely for the next game?

Nintendo seems kinda aware that there's a demand for this game so i can see the smash team looking at this and considering Isaac for an inclusion.

If they make another Detective club game between now and the next smash, i can kinda see it joining the roster line up, because it seems like they kinda want to make it a thing. Though i think they'd either pick between this and Ace attorney since they both fill the same niche.

Astral chain and Advance wars? lmao no.

 

[TheFirstPoppyBro]

I keep trying to find data on current Bayonetta 3 sales, but all I can find is that it sold over one million units in around three months after launch.

Surely it's done better by now, it's been more than a year.

Well, if it has it hasn't been reported anywhere or at least recorded, since Wikipedia's list of highest selling Switch games lists it at 1.07 mil as of March 2023. Almost certainly higher than that at this point but by how much, who knows?

 

[SMAASH! Puppy]

From what I understand, on top of being strung together from pieces of the open world idea, Bayonetta 3's story was extremely poorly handled. Like, just about everything about it was done incorrectly, and if they wanted to continue the story, they'd either have to retcon the entire thing, or go with the new protagonist that they set up. The latter option sounds like it'll be kind of a hard sell due to how different she is from the previous three protagonists, but that I could easily be wrong on.

 

[Idon]

So guys...

Is the Bayonetta franchise really in that much trouble?

On top of what NintenRob has already stated, there is the issue of the actual logistics of a sequel within the context of the game's story.

Spoiler: Bayonetta 3 Spoilers

Bayonetta 3 ends with Bayonetta effectively dead, and not just her, but every single multiversal variant of her dying. Now with her gone, the "mantle" goes to her future daughter that she had with Luka (which actually pains me to say, but that's another discussion entirely). The problem here is Viola aka Neo-Bayonetta has absolutely nothing in common with the original bayonetta, not moveset, not personality, not iconicness. And unlike DMC's Nero who has earned his passing of the torch both narratively and within the fanbase, people are not as keen on her as they are with the original.

This is what I mean by them "burning the bridge" so to speak. Such an insane shift in the status quo, one that is not well-received, makes it quite difficult to follow up with naturally.

Look, I don't hate her... but she really really isn't Bayonetta.

And of course, without Kamiya, the main writer of the series and the man with the alleged "12 Game Bayonetta Saga" gone, his plans are gone with the wind alongside him so they don't have much to go off of either.

 

[TheFirstPoppyBro]

On top of what NintenRob has already stated, there is the issue of the actual logistics of a sequel within the context of the game's story.

Spoiler: Bayonetta 3 Spoilers

Bayonetta 3 ends with Bayonetta effectively dead, and not just her, but every single multiversal variant of her dying. Now with her gone, the "mantle" goes to her future daughter that she had with Luka (which actually pains me to say, but that's another discussion entirely). The problem here is Viola aka Neo-Bayonetta has absolutely nothing in common with the original bayonetta, not moveset, not personality, not iconicness. And unlike Nero who has earned his passing of the torch both narratively and within the fanbase, people are not as keen on her as they are with the original.

This is what I mean by them "burning the bridge" so to speak. Such an insane shift in the status quo, one that is not well-received, makes it quite difficult to follow up with naturally.

Look, I don't hate her... but she really really isn't Bayonetta.
View attachment 394683

And of course, without Kamiya, the main writer of the series and the man with the alleged "12 Game Bayonetta Saga" gone, his plans are gone with the wind alongside him so they don't have much to go off of either.

Also probably doesn't help that Origins was a flop, since it's not even listed on the Wikipedia page so its sales were never reported, which is typically not a good sign. All I can find on it is this:

"Bayonetta Origins: Cereza and the Lost Demon was the sixth best-selling retail game in Japan during its first week of release, with 6,474 physical units being sold."

 

[Laniv]

On top of what NintenRob has already stated, there is the issue of the actual logistics of a sequel within the context of the game's story.

Spoiler: Bayonetta 3 Spoilers

Bayonetta 3 ends with Bayonetta effectively dead, and not just her, but every single multiversal variant of her dying. Now with her gone, the "mantle" goes to her future daughter that she had with Luka (which actually pains me to say, but that's another discussion entirely). The problem here is Viola aka Neo-Bayonetta has absolutely nothing in common with the original bayonetta, not moveset, not personality, not iconicness. And unlike DMC's Nero who has earned his passing of the torch both narratively and within the fanbase, people are not as keen on her as they are with the original.

This is what I mean by them "burning the bridge" so to speak. Such an insane shift in the status quo, one that is not well-received, makes it quite difficult to follow up with naturally.

Look, I don't hate her... but she really really isn't Bayonetta.
View attachment 394683

And of course, without Kamiya, the main writer of the series and the man with the alleged "12 Game Bayonetta Saga" gone, his plans are gone with the wind alongside him so they don't have much to go off of either.

...that is actually way worse than I thought. Good grief.

...that said, I don't think Bayonetta as a series is in any danger

 

[Schnee117]

Also probably doesn't help that Origins was a flop, since it's not even listed on the Wikipedia page so its sales were never reported, which is typically not a good sign. All I can find on it is this:

"Bayonetta Origins: Cereza and the Lost Demon was the sixth best-selling retail game in Japan during its first week of release, with 6,474 physical units being sold."

Yeah people were not down with another Bayo game so soon after 3 let everyone down, especially not a weird spin-off and absolutely not a weird spin-off that only exists to try and justify some of the story decisions in 3.

 

[Ivander]

On top of what NintenRob has already stated, there is the issue of the actual logistics of a sequel within the context of the game's story.

Spoiler: Bayonetta 3 Spoilers

Bayonetta 3 ends with Bayonetta effectively dead, and not just her, but every single multiversal variant of her dying. Now with her gone, the "mantle" goes to her future daughter that she had with Luka (which actually pains me to say, but that's another discussion entirely). The problem here is Viola aka Neo-Bayonetta has absolutely nothing in common with the original bayonetta, not moveset, not personality, not iconicness. And unlike Nero who has earned his passing of the torch both narratively and within the fanbase, people are not as keen on her as they are with the original.

This is what I mean by them "burning the bridge" so to speak. Such an insane shift in the status quo, one that is not well-received, makes it quite difficult to follow up with naturally.

Look, I don't hate her... but she really really isn't Bayonetta.
View attachment 394683

And of course, without Kamiya, the main writer of the series and the man with the alleged "12 Game Bayonetta Saga" gone, his plans are gone with the wind alongside him so they don't have much to go off of either.

I mean, Nero didn't earn his torch with the fans until Devil May Cry 5, the game he next appeared in. He was certainly not seen favourably in regards to his first appearance in DMC4....and than DmC happened.

Actually, that might explain the reason why people don't look at Viola keenly. It's the hair. It looks almost the same as DmC Dante, thus giving people PTSD.

 

[Opossum]

So I just thought this was interesting.

For those who don't know him, Schaffrillas Productions is a fairly popular YouTuber, and a couple of months back, he conducted a big poll that spread across YouTube and Twitter asking people to name their top five favorite Mario characters in a write-in ballot. This poll reached over 32,000 voters.

The Top 15 were as follows:

1. Luigi
2. Bowser
3. Waluigi
4. Yoshi
5. Rosalina
6. Daisy
7. Wario
8. Shy Guy
9. Mario
10. Peach
11. Donkey Kong
12. Dry Bones
13. Toad
14. King Boo
15. Funky Kong (who beat Vivian, who was 16th, by two votes)


It's fairly minor in the grand scheme of things, but honestly I think we can put a lot of the claims about Funky Kong scoring as well as he did on Swamp's poll only being from memes or due to being a selectable option after people voted for Dixie to rest. Like...this is fairly demonstrable proof that he's just very popular especially on a casual Nintendo fan level. He's not just someone to be written off, and should absolutely be considered a viable candidate on popularity alone (and honestly I'd also say the same for the other Mario characters in the top fifteen who aren't in Smash yet...hell, even Vivian, who got a close sixteenth).

I'm just saying...I think I'm fully getting on the Funky train.

 

[LiveStudioAudience]

As far as Funky's votes, a lot of people played Mario Kart Wii, and it shows.

 

[Kirby Dragons]

So... What would it take for you to consider these five franchises a lock for the next game?

Ring Fit Adventure
Astral Chain
Famicom Detective Club
Golden Sun
Advance Wars

None of them are locks IMO, and I'd say Golden Sun missed its chance. FDC maybe has the best chance due to having a series, which includes a recent game. RFA and AC just depends on if Nintendo wants to take those franchises further.

 

[Louie G.]

So... What would it take for you to consider these five franchises a lock for the next game?

Ring Fit Adventure
Astral Chain
Famicom Detective Club
Golden Sun
Advance Wars

In order of likelihood…

Ring Fit - It’s already pretty damn likely, but as others said a sequel wouldn’t hurt. Right now it’s a very successful standalone game, so theoretically I can see it being passed over and given nonplayable content if it’s truly just gonna be a one time thing. On the other hand, the amount of promising new Nintendo IP is slim and this is hands down the biggest one of the era.

Golden Sun - Isaac’s strong fan demand has persisted for years and GS got a solid showing of new content in Ultimate for a series with no roster presence and no new game for over a decade. With the relative lack of big new IP to pull from I think they’ll pull back toward some older ones and formally respond to Isaac’s popularity. What would it take to make him a lock? Well, a new Golden Sun game starring Isaac obviously. As is I consider him the most likely fanservice pick behind only Waluigi.

Astral Chain - Confirmation of a sequel would help me to reassess AC’s odds, which as of now rest more moderately for me. Again, it’s one of only a few new Switch era Nintendo IP but could very well be the Assist Trophy kind of smaller IP that misses the boat akin to Golden Sun or Sin & Punishment before it. But yeah, if Nintendo reveals a future for this series soon then my confidence would rise. Not sure if it was enough of a smash hit on its own to demand the spot on the roster, and the timing might not quite be there, so it comes down to how much Sakurai is into it.

Famicom Detective Club - I will start taking this more seriously the longer Nintendo continues to spotlight it. FDC has been getting more love lately than I ever anticipated it would. Obviously that’s because a new game just dropped, which is already a good thing going for it. But I want to see if the FDC name remains something that frequently pops up in Nintendo marketing or branding somehow. Seeing it transition into this role and treated as a somewhat major active franchise would make me feel better about it.

Advance Wars - I would need to see the remake get a Japanese release, and I would need to see it perform well. Honestly, the fact that it didn’t drop in Japan all but disqualifies it for me as it stands. It makes it apparent that this was a pet project for western shores, where I believe this series was always more popular anyway, and is not being taken as a serious re-instatement of the IP. Which is really a shame.

 

[AreJay25]

As far as Funky's votes, a lot of people played Mario Kart Wii, and it shows.

Behold, the Brawl Meta Knight of the Mario Kart series.

... Mario Kart Wii was a ****ing unhinged game, man.

 

[SMAASH! Puppy]

Behold, the Brawl Meta Knight of the Mario Kart series.

... Mario Kart Wii was a ****ing unhinged game, man.

However unique they make him, if his side special is just Wario's Bike, but with the Flame Runner, that would probably be the funniest thing they could do.

 

[Pupp135]

So... What would it take for you to consider these five franchises a lock for the next game?

Ring Fit Adventure
Astral Chain
Famicom Detective Club
Golden Sun
Advance Wars

Here’s my current hunch.

Ring Fit Adventure > Famicom Detective Club = Golden Sun > Astral Chain > Advance Wars

Based on the Nintendo IPs that debuted after ARMS, Ring Fit Adventure has been the most successful one. Famicon Detective Xlub has been relevant during the Switch era, but Isaac has the requests, so I can see it go either way. Astral Chain feels like something where timing may not work out. The Advance Wars remake seems to be something that didn’t do as well.

So I just thought this was interesting.

For those who don't know him, Schaffrillas Productions is a fairly popular YouTuber, and a couple of months back, he conducted a big poll that spread across YouTube and Twitter asking people to name their top five favorite Mario characters in a write-in ballot. This poll reached over 32,000 voters.

The Top 15 were as follows:

1. Luigi
2. Bowser
3. Waluigi
4. Yoshi
5. Rosalina
6. Daisy
7. Wario
8. Shy Guy
9. Mario
10. Peach
11. Donkey Kong
12. Dry Bones
13. Toad
14. King Boo
15. Funky Kong (who beat Vivian, who was 16th, by two votes)


It's fairly minor in the grand scheme of things, but honestly I think we can put a lot of the claims about Funky Kong scoring as well as he did on Swamp's poll only being from memes or due to being a selectable option after people voted for Dixie to rest. Like...this is fairly demonstrable proof that he's just very popular especially on a casual Nintendo fan level. He's not just someone to be written off, and should absolutely be considered a viable candidate on popularity alone (and honestly I'd also say the same for the other Mario characters in the top fifteen who aren't in Smash yet...hell, even Vivian, who got a close sixteenth).

I'm just saying...I think I'm fully getting on the Funky train.

These are some interesting results, and it’s cool to see characters like Shy Guy, Dry Bones, and Funky Kong in the top 15 and with Vivian almost making the top 15.