Nintendo multiple times touted the massive sales of Smash DLC in their financial reports. In 2020 for instance they showed how it was one of their largest sources of revenue. If anything, you are understating the size Smash has grown to. Smash Ultimate as of last counting sold over 27 million units. That’s almost more than Brawl, Melee, and Smash 4 Wii U combined. People were willing to pay 55 dollars for both fighters passes. If only 10% of the ultimate audience bought only the two passes, that’s almost $150,000,000 in revenue (note: this is assuming USD and a stable conversion rate across all currencies). That is not taking into account people who only bought one pass, individual characters, or Mii Costumes. This is also a conservative estimate. Odds are, ultimates DLC alone did even better than this admittedly conservative estimate.
Now, is part of that due to just the install base being big? Sure, but it’s also the culture that smash has built around it. Smash has become this massive celebration of gaming, where whatever character comes in will have a portion of the audience excited. This is the community that got excited over Plant being added. This is where Joker’s smash reveal was the keynote announcement of the VGA’s. Where Sephiroth’s was one of the opening announcements the next year. Big announcements like Steve caused such a deafening amount of hype. Nintendo knows how to please the crowd and hype up their game.
Despite all that, they didn't do a third pass. Of course, you could argue that this has to do with content burnout and say that they'll come around eventually. But (1) this remains to be seen and lacks precedent (no, MK8's DLC is nothing like adding the kind of Smash content people are asking for); and (2) even if more content for Ultimate were worth doing after a certain amount of time, it eventually becomes less worth it relative to making something new when Ultimate can only get more and more aged and stale for the average consumer.
One other thing you miss is that putting third party picks like say Halo in is a good move to introduce smash to new audiences. The hype that Terry, Steve, or Joker for instance brought from their communities was big. I know transitional fighting game fans who were ecstatic Terry was in. I know people who bought smash ultimate just to play as Steve. I know JRPG fans who do not like smash who gave it a spin due to Joker. Smash also introduces other people to those games. Think of how beloved games like Three Houses, Persona 5, or Bayonetta 2 have become because smash helped shine a spotlight on them. Smash does wonders for advertising and bringing in new people both to itself and the games it advertises.
I don't doubt that adding third party franchises can expand the audience; it is a consideration I neglected to mention even though I think the number of people who will buy the game just for one particular third party character is fairly small, even in cases like Steve or Chief. You said above that basically any character, even an oddball like Plant, can hype people up, in which case I don't see as much upshot to adding third parties specifically.
I also don't doubt that third parties are highly profitable. I wouldn't go so far as to say that I am against the audience expanding; however, I don't want them to give in to crowd-pleasing if it means sacrificing the original identity of the game and/or makes having a fair roster selection even more difficult than it already is.
Finally, you bring up that people have unreasonable expectations for an Ultimate deluxe. I’d argue Ultimate Deluxe is honestly one of the most reasonable takes you can have so long as you do not expect the moon. For starters, economically Ultimate Deluxe makes a ton of sense. We know that Smash sold like hot cakes both in terms of DLC and in terms of game sales. Nintendo is going to want to have a new smash game on their next system. Using Ultimate as a base honestly makes sense to save money.You have a well balanced roster that is well animated. Why spend money and resources redoing all that from the ground up when you could just port it? Consumer wise it also makes sense to pander to the base and do an Ult Deluxe. Ult as I said above sold over 27 million copies. It’s clear people love it and I doubt Nintendo especially nowadays wants to rock the boat that much. Nintendo also has historically wanted a new smash ready for its next system within the first few years. Since melee, Nintendo has shot for smash launches early within a systems lifespan. Nintendo could easily have their next system out by 2024-2025. Why risk not having a killer app within reason for your system when you could just do Ult Deluxe alongside another big first party release? For Nintendo, Ult Deluxe makes the most sense and is just the path of least resistance to them.
The post you're quoting was about not expecting too much from an Ult Deluxe in terms of new content, if it were to happen. That post wasn't about having unreasonable expectations on whether it will happen at all. Just that Ult Deluxe happening doesn't automatically mean a ton of new characters and modes.
Regardless, of course they're going to reuse as many assets as they can. They always do that. But on new hardware it's highly likely that they're only going to be able to reuse a limited amount or at least have to significantly update it, and besides that, I don't want shortcuts if they conflict with good design or roster choices. You can't just assume that porting is going to be the path of least resistance when you don't know how good Ultimate will even look on the new hardware and you don't know how well the game will age. Maybe they don't want to proverbially rock the boat but they will have to eventually, maybe sooner than some would hope.
From another perspective, having the Smash team invest resources into an updated port when they're likely going to want a brand new game on the new hardware at some point down the line might be disadvantageous if it forces that desired new game further out into the system's lifetime.
I’d say that EiH is much more likely to continue than the thanos snap to third parties and the roster in general some people like you want, or that it’s pointless and unrealistic to think that the roster needs reevaluation because characters like Corrin or Incineroar made it in
Again, the post you're quoting was not telling people they can't want an Ult Deluxe, just that it might not be as good as they expect if they do in fact get it (I'm sorry if it came off wrong or too strong). Tempering expectations. And believe me, my own expectations have been adequately tempered after the last few speculation cycles. I am fully prepared for the third party stampede to continue, but again the post you're quoting wasn't really about whether my personal asks are going to happen.
Lastly, please stop singling out Corrin and Incineroar when I've made it clear that those are far from the only reconsiderations I'd advocate for. It's a reduction that dismisses the rest of what I've said.
Even if we would have Ult Deluxe meet the bare minimum for a port with Sakurai at the helm at launch, it would still probably do well. If it had say a conservative number of newcomers (let’s say 6-8 unique newcomers going off the development for Ult with EiH and having to make the cut characters from the ground up), some new stages, changes to classic modes after the DLC and new characters, and improved online, it would still get a ton of hype. You could easily have more newcomers, new single player modes, or what have you. Assuming the worst case scenario of small single player expansions that only happen to accommodate the new characters, some new characters and stages, and a vastly superior online, it would still sell amazingly and generate hype. I think those are very conservative expectations for going into an Ult Deluxe. You could easily have more content since they do not need to focus resources on recreating characters or animations.
What you're describing sounds pretty expansive for a port; a conservative expectation would be, well, a port, which is the same game put onto new hardware. Sure, what you're suggesting would perform well, but how much better than a straight port relative to the amount of effort it would take? What if porting isn't even feasible to begin with? "Could easily have" more content is not the same as adding that content being worth it relative to doing nothing and porting the game as-is, or relative to making a new game to fulfill a new vision for the series.
Letting Nintendo or Sakurai use Ultimate as a canvas for the next game honestly is a best case scenario overall.
Again, they're going to use as much as they can if it still fits with their design and/or roster decisions/vision. But it may not all be feasible or even desirable if they have other ideas for the series.
I know you might have issues with ultimate because it has transitioned away from the outdated Nintendo all star mindset,
Actually, the base game content has stayed fairly true to the allstar mindset, even if it is not as much as I would like. Basically all the base game third party newcomer additions (so not including vets) have been limited to the retro icons aside from Snake, and the rest have largely been important Nintendo characters. Sure, there are a lot of decisions, even ones on the first party side, that I disagree with; however, it is still a highly Nintendo-focused game in terms of new base game content. I'm arguing that they should stick more closely to that largely more coherent vision.
Smash has transitioned into becoming one of if not the greatest crossover in gaming
You could have maybe said that back in 64 just on the basis of having Mario, Donkey Kong, Link, and Pikachu together.
I know in the past you threw a fit over “irrelevant” characters like Corrin or Incineroar being in the roster. While you might not like those characters, you have to accept that your view on the roster is fringe at best.
Again, please don't characterize my perspective like that. I also don't think I have done anything resembling a fit; I am generally careful to think through what I say and not become excessively emotionally invested over what is just a game. I'm writing this stuff for fun, you know.
And I'm fine with my opinions being unpopular. Nobody has to agree. The post you're quoting wasn't principally about my own asks anyway, even though of course personal bias always drips into things.
Sakurai does not actively look through the roster culling characters no longer relevant. Neither does Nintendo
I mean, they do when they have to. Several characters have been cut or been considered for cutting, or been given potentially perilously low priority for various reasons. I argue that they should be less averse to cutting than they have been, but it is clear that they do to some extent consider whether vets are worth adding again relative to other characters they could roster (although again I think that vets shouldn't be given added priority just on the basis of being vets).
you don’t get the right to call Ult Deluxe unrealistic when much of what you actively talk about in terms of the direction of smash is far more unrealistic.
I mean, I've acknowledged the unlikelihood of several things I've asked for, and people are allowed to tell me they're unlikely. It's not unfair discussion and comes with no aim of making it personal or hurting any feelings.
