Official Next Smash - Speculation & Discussion Thread

[RileyXY1]

The rotating casts that got new games since Ultimate are obvious picks. It’s clear why they were prioritised in the Fighters Pass and why they will likely still be prioritised in even a slim newcomer roster like Ultimate’s base game had.

Fire Emblem, Pokémon, and Xenoblade will all likely get newcomers for new protagonists and monsters. These series are best viewed as ‘franchises of franchises’ in a way, with new unique ideas and characters to implement.

Splatoon’s rise in stock is bound to get it a newcomer. I can see this and Xenoblade being a Smash 4 Kid Icarus/Fire Emblem scenario where we get a new unique character and a new echo fighter.

Animal Crossing and Pikmin could get a new face, but I imagine it’s lower priority as it may borrow a lot from Villager and Isabelle.

Mario could either remain as is or get a few new faces. Zelda has been stagnant since Brawl and being honest, I would not be surprised if that doesn’t change. Kirby finally feels ripe for bringing Bandana Dee in finally.

I’m not going to go over what series are most likely to lose characters because that is a can of worms no one wants to open.

I think Pokémon might wind up being DLC and not base game due to timing issues.

 

[Sucumbio]

I was having trouble verifying but it appears both MK11 and MK1 were banned in Japan, South Korea and some other smaller Asian Markets ... I therefore must conclude that Mortal Kombat is a no go for Smash regardless of its appeal or popularity there and that said appeal is going to be super limited because of those bans. It was a formative game of my childhood, and certainly became a mainstay in America arcades of the 90s and early 2000s but .. alas that era is behind us, was very different from Japanese arcade culture, and although almost 50 percent of my SNES library was MK titles, it wasn't enough to make a positive impression on Smash devs.

 

[SPEN18]

I'm thinking reps from Engage and XBC3 might be among the most overestimated in speculation right now.
Truth is, these two are pretty small fish to fry relative to the likes of New Horizons, TotK, and Ring Fit especially, and even also the likes of Forgotten Land and Pikmin 4.
To boot, both FE and Xenoblade are fresh off Switch-era newcomers during Ult's DLC, with a lot of other series growing more than they did during said Switch era but not having that parlayed into Smash to the same extent. It just makes a ton of sense to focus on other series who did better numbers and gained new faces (or had old faces gain prominence) just as well.
I also don't really see a scenario where Engage and XBC3 reps are meant to "replace" any of the same-series vets on the roster; they'd be added on top of rather than rotating out say Byleth or Aegis. Nor do I really see Nintendo mandating new faces from these series, given again their relative sizes and the fact that they received current faces already.
Honestly, it would actually start to feel pretty wrong if we got Alear and Noah/Mio but the likes of Animal Crossing and Zelda all had to sit out. At that point we'd have to ask what these other series would even need to do to get unique reps.

 

[Louie G.]

Which series do you guys think would have potential for newcomers?

90-100% Chance
- Regardless of who it is, Mario will get a new character and maybe two of them.
- I mean... duh. Again, maybe even two characters. We've missed out on a LOT of Pokemon between Ultimate and by the time the next game drops.
- It's hard for me to imagine them not. AC has insane mascot appeal, the characters are everywhere and they are massively beloved. It's firmly established itself among Nintendo's heaviest hitters and another character is a safe bet for a newcomer that anyone can recognize and enjoy like Mario.
- Seems pretty obvious. Which form Octoling will take is probably the better question... it could be a simple alternate costume, but even then I presume Splatoon will get a full on newcomer also. Or if they go all in with a unique Octoling, well there you go. Something will happen either way.

Plausible Chance
- Zelda is probably in better shape than ever, after BOTW and TOTK it's riding pretty damn high. The time might finally be right for something new. But I could see them passing on one in favor of a full TOTK Ganondorf rework, honestly. From a production standpoint that could virtually be a newcomer.
- It's been a good few years for Pikmin. We've seen a new, successful entry (and Pikmin Bloom, which attracted a good amt of players in its own right), every game is available on Switch, Pikmin are appearing all throughout Nintendo branding. Pikmin 4 has introduced several new elements that could be explored, including a breakout character in Oatchi. There's definitely a strong chance, although we could also just get a Rookie costume and that's it.
- Forgotten Land was a big success and BWD is more prominent than ever. If they want to shoot their shot, now's the time. But I'm like 50/50 on it.
- I think Chun-Li is one of the most likely new faces, but for posterity third parties go here. It'll never be quite as certain, but I do believe we're at the point where we're going to start seeing some mainstay third party series expanded on with unique characters a la Sephiroth.
- Ditto with Street Fighter, but slightly less confident. Still though, the Sonic brand has been kicking ass over the past few years. Now's a good time.

Eh... Maybe?
- I'm just gonna echo SPEN18 on this. I think their chances are overstated, although not nonexistent. Engage* and Xeno 3 feel as if they failed to leave the same wide reaching impression and success as their predecessors, which are already represented and unlikely to be cut. The window for "promo" has kind of faded with them as well, so will just come down to if they see new entries in the next couple years. But I don't think it's as obligatory as some are convinced it to be. *(There's a chance Fire Emblem could reach back toward popular characters from older games, but I'm uncertain how likely that is)
- Has some good options in Raven Beak, EMMI, Sylux, but it's unlikely any of them will make the cut. It's still a bit confusing for me to see people treat Metroid of all series like one that will act on its most recent villain or something... Zelda and Kirby don't get that liberty, so I don't see it here.
- Zero and Alucard are compelling, but I think the former two third parties I mentioned are going to take precedent.

Megaman - Zero?

Damn come on, Mega Man definitely deserves at least one character.

 

[Sucumbio]

Honestly, it would actually start to feel pretty wrong if we got Alear and Noah/Mio but the likes of Animal Crossing and Zelda all had to sit out. At that point we'd have to ask what these other series would even need to do to get unique reps.

At first you pointed out the "wrongness" of Alear or Noah/Mio getting in by replacing Byleth or Pythra which I agree with, but then here you say it'd feel wrong if they got in but AC and Zelda didn't get a newcomer so which is it? Or both? I dunno, I guess I just don't have a problem with Zelda or AC not getting a new rep regardless of what whichever other series does and continues to do.

 

[LiveStudioAudience]

I was once a bit more optimistic for Dixie Kong getting in Smash 6, but between the bad luck DK has had losing the Vicarious Visions project and Nintendo's seeming lack of stronger interest in the brand as far as new titles (including spin-offs), I'd say her odds are not great. Even if Nintendo is working on a new game right now, I could easily imagine the timing not quite working and her getting passed over again.

 

[BuckleyTim]

Re: Mortal Kombat

'What about Sub-Zero?' - Street Fighter 6 Director states he's open to idea of guest characters from Mortal Kombat

If the SF6 director can entertain the idea of a Mortal Kombat - Street Fighter crossover, then I might be able to entertain the idea of Smash one day adding MK to the mix as well, despite the obvious barriers otherwise.

 

[SPEN18]

At first you pointed out the "wrongness" of Alear or Noah/Mio getting in by replacing Byleth or Pythra which I agree with, but then here you say it'd feel wrong if they got in but AC and Zelda didn't get a newcomer so which is it? Or both? I dunno, I guess I just don't have a problem with Zelda or AC not getting a new rep regardless of what whichever other series does and continues to do.

In that last paragraph AC and Zelda were just examples. I just mean that it would be weird for Engage and XBC3 reps to be super high priority over all these other series that have been performing better and don't have recent additions. On the whole, they should be trying to capitalize on growing and high-performing series with the next roster, and Engage/XBC3 reps would look out-of-place as the sole headliners for that if we weren't also seeing it elsewhere on the roster.

 

[Louie G.]

At first you pointed out the "wrongness" of Alear or Noah/Mio getting in by replacing Byleth or Pythra which I agree with, but then here you say it'd feel wrong if they got in but AC and Zelda didn't get a newcomer so which is it? Or both? I dunno, I guess I just don't have a problem with Zelda or AC not getting a new rep regardless of what whichever other series does and continues to do.

It just makes the priorities come off kind of confusing. Zelda and AC have released games since Ultimate that have moved tens of millions of units, and have remained prominent talking points within the general Nintendo fan space, while Fire Emblem and Xenoblade's latest efforts have failed to move even two million each and trail behind the likes of Three Houses and Xeno 2. There's room for series both big and (relatively) small to get new content in Smash, but ignoring the heaviest hitters of the last generation in favor of adding the new hotness from these "revolving door" series is questionable. At least in my perspective, and I assume some of the other people here who have voiced similar opinions on this.

That's just to say, Zelda and Animal Crossing have OVERperformed with their latest entries. These are some of the best selling Nintendo games and some of the most fruitful release windows of all time. It should at least demand some heavy consideration, if not immediate action, under the premise that the next Smash Bros will be concerned with the last few years of games it hasn't had the opportunity to represent yet. I'm not trying to say sales should completely dominate the decision making process, but some of these recent successes are simply too big to ignore.

 

[Opossum]

I've mentioned it before but my thing with Alear is this.

We know from what Sakurai said about Robin getting in that Awakening releasing right when the roster was being decided on was crucial. Had Awakening been released any later OR EARLIER, they may have missed the cut. Engage released in January 2023. Smash games typically have two year development cycles, and Sakurai is only now wrapping up his other projects like his YouTube channel. The earliest I can see a project plan being drafted is June 2024...a year and a half after Engage released.

At that point, Alear getting in would necessitate specifically going back for an older Fire Emblem character. And that isn't impossible! Marth and Chrom both got in after that window of peak relevance. But then there's the elephant in the room...if they were to go back for a Fire Emblem character, there are several picks that are far more popular than Alear, who isn't even the second most popular character in their own game (hi, Yunaka and Ivy). After that brief window of relevance, Alear then has to compete with juggernauts like Lyn, Edelgard, Dimitri, and Claude, all of whom are just as important as Alear, and also leaps and bounds more popular.

I genuinely believe it's more likely that we get Lyn or Edelgard than it is that we'll get Alear, and that's coming from someone who really enjoyed Engage. Timing is just not at all on its side.

 

[Jotadé]

One big hope I have for the next Smash Bros game is that they add the TotK Ganondorf version and have Alfonso Vallés reprise the role in the Spain dub of the game.

He is a legendary voice actor from the country who is known for voicing iconic characters such as Solid Snake, Magneto in X-Men '97, the Captain in Star Fox and more.

Here's some examples of his work, he recently is part of a huge fan project where they are dubbing the most iconic scenes from the Metal Gear Solid titles which released in english over here:

Gonna post the X-Men '97 trailer because there are no clips of the Spain dub on Youtube. Just check the final scene of the trailer to hear his Magneto:

 

[Louie G.]

I genuinely believe it's more likely that we get Lyn or Edelgard than it is that we'll get Alear, and that's coming from someone who really enjoyed Engage. Timing is just not at all on its side.

I agree with the sentiment, and want to add on that Engage continues to keep both of these characters relevant too. If Engage is used for anything in the next Smash, maybe it would be most beneficial to treat it as an excuse to revisit older Fire Emblem characters since that was such a prominent aspect of the game.

Alear isn't impossible, a lot of people seem very inspired by their moveset potential so perhaps Sakurai has a similar enthusiasm about it. But yeah, this is giving me big "Zoroark" vibes in the way we've seen such passionate rallying behind a character who will likely not be all that relevant or fresh by the time the game comes out, within a series where that freshness is usually what dictates a character's inclusion.

 

[CrusherMania1592]

90-100% Chance
- Regardless of who it is, Mario will get a new character and maybe two of them.
- I mean... duh. Again, maybe even two characters. We've missed out on a LOT of Pokemon between Ultimate and by the time the next game drops.
- It's hard for me to imagine them not. AC has insane mascot appeal, the characters are everywhere and they are massively beloved. It's firmly established itself among Nintendo's heaviest hitters and another character is a safe bet for a newcomer that anyone can recognize and enjoy like Mario.
- Seems pretty obvious. Which form Octoling will take is probably the better question... it could be a simple alternate costume, but even then I presume Splatoon will get a full on newcomer also. Or if they go all in with a unique Octoling, well there you go. Something will happen either way.

Plausible Chance
- Zelda is probably in better shape than ever, after BOTW and TOTK it's riding pretty damn high. The time might finally be right for something new. But I could see them passing on one in favor of a full TOTK Ganondorf rework, honestly. From a production standpoint that could virtually be a newcomer.
- It's been a good few years for Pikmin. We've seen a new, successful entry (and Pikmin Bloom, which attracted a good amt of players in its own right), every game is available on Switch, Pikmin are appearing all throughout Nintendo branding. Pikmin 4 has introduced several new elements that could be explored, including a breakout character in Oatchi. There's definitely a strong chance, although we could also just get a Rookie costume and that's it.
- Forgotten Land was a big success and BWD is more prominent than ever. If they want to shoot their shot, now's the time. But I'm like 50/50 on it.
- I think Chun-Li is one of the most likely new faces, but for posterity third parties go here. It'll never be quite as certain, but I do believe we're at the point where we're going to start seeing some mainstay third party series expanded on with unique characters a la Sephiroth.
- Ditto with Street Fighter, but slightly less confident. Still though, the Sonic brand has been kicking ass over the past few years. Now's a good time.

Eh... Maybe?
- I'm just gonna echo SPEN18 on this. I think their chances are overstated, although not nonexistent. Engage* and Xeno 3 feel as if they failed to leave the same wide reaching impression and success as their predecessors, which are already represented and unlikely to be cut. The window for "promo" has kind of faded with them as well, so will just come down to if they see new entries in the next couple years. But I don't think it's as obligatory as some are convinced it to be. *(There's a chance Fire Emblem could reach back toward popular characters from older games, but I'm uncertain how likely that is)
- Has some good options in Raven Beak, EMMI, Sylux, but it's unlikely any of them will make the cut. It's still a bit confusing for me to see people treat Metroid of all series like one that will act on its most recent villain or something... Zelda and Kirby don't get that liberty, so I don't see it here.
- Zero and Alucard are compelling, but I think the former two third parties I mentioned are going to take precedent.

Damn come on, Mega Man definitely deserves at least one character.

All great choices here!

Megaman definitely deserves one. I was saying Zero would be the pick if they had to get another rep lol

 

[Louie G.]

Megaman definitely deserves one. I was saying Zero would be the pick if they had to get another rep lol

Don't worry I got you, it was just some wordplay.

Jokes aside, Zero is a pretty good sleeper pick. I do still think Chun-Li outranks him, but it depends how hard they wanna go on expanding on some of these third party staples. If we breach past Sonic or Street Fighter then I do think Mega Man is one of the higher priorities.

 

[DemifiendEnjoyer]

Considering it, Cuphead has pretty good chances to be playable honestly.
Like the Smash team showed interest in him already, The game has Spiritis, Music, and A Costume in the game already (Mii Costumes especially have historically become actual characters later, This includes K. Rool, Inkling, Isabelle) . And all that was after the Cuphead creators said they wanted him in. Considering what happened with Sonic and Snake in Melee, It seems logical that that the Smash Team reached out because of that.
It could be that they considered him being playable but it didn’t go through and I can think of several reasons for that (Cuphead was a very new series at the time, Could have been a hard character to pull off stylistically, Fighter Pass 2 may have already been solidified so they couldn’t add him, Or they just preferred other character ideas.)
But at this point now there is less holding him back.
The series is more established now, It had a whole Cartoon (Which could be ver advantageous considering how the Pokémon Anime factored into Smash in the past).
And since next time we get more Smash content will probably be a new game, They would have had time to plan his inclusion if they wanted to.
Now, I don’t think Cuphead is a character I necessarily expect to see in the future, But considering how many 3rd Party characters have been included, I don’t think it would be that strange, And among 3rd Party characters I believe he is one of the more likely ones.

 

[Perkilator]

Which series do you guys think would have potential for newcomers?

I'm just gonna list the newcomers I think are likely / newcomers I want:

• We're definitely getting two Mario newcomers. Maybe Waluigi will be one of them, due to his popularity?
• At the very least, a Ganondorf rework based on TotK?
• With Metroid Dread being the best-selling game in the series, Sakurai could very well consider a newcomer from that game. Question is, will it be Raven Beak for his sheer moveset potential, or E.M.M.I. for its presence and potentially unique moveset?
  • Of course, this doesn't factor in Prime 4 and Sylux, which a whole other can of worms relative to when the next Smash game started development
• BWD is another character that seems like a character popular enough to justify making him a newcomer, especially with Forgotten Land being the best-selling Kirby game
• Pokémon and Fire Emblem are difficult to ascertain in terms of newcomers. Because while we know they'll each get a newcomer next game, whether Gen 9 and Engage get skipped over depends on when the next Smash game started development.
• As for Xenoblade 3, I can definitely say that it's not quite the same scenario as Pokémon and Fire Emblem as far as rotating casts. Monolith Soft usually likes to take time to make each Xenoblade the best they can possibly be, hence the Xenoblade casts don't rotate nearly as often.
• Ring Fit Adventure and Astral Chain are two Switch games that I figure Sakurai would look into for unique newcomers, even if their respective sales figures are night and day
• As for 3rd parties...well, after Sephiroth, I'd like to think Sakurai's gonna look into more non-echo newcomers for existing 3rd party franchises. Maybe the likes of Alucard, Chun-Li and a Sonic newcomer?

 

[Noipoi]

Surprised that it took Steve years to get in when Banjo got in faster

Makes me question how Ultimate would've been if Steve was held until the next game as one of the first third-party characters.

So let's discuss the idea of characters from a series. Which series do you guys think would have potential for newcomers?

Mario - Good chance with plenty of selections
DK - Dixie is only big character left
Zelda - Needs a newcomer that's not Link/Zelda/Ganondorf
Metroid - Has potential for DLC.
Yoshi - Solo rep
Kirby - Potentially Bandanna Dee
Star Fox - Right now no.
Pokemon - This one is one of the questions on who due go Gen 9
Mother - Ness and Lucas are fine
F-Zero - Black Shadow would be a nice Echo
Ice Climbers - Solo rep
Fire Emblem - Most likely gonna get a newcomer, but who? DLC is a possibility
Game & Watch - Solo rep
Kid Irceus - Roster is fine
Wario - Ashley would be a nice addition. Overwise, solo rep
Metal Gear Solid - Solo rep
Sonic - LONG overdue for a second rep
Pikmin - I'll say give Olimar another fighter to join. Wasn't Louie supposed to join as a clone in Wii U/3DS?
ROB - Solo rep
Animal Crossing - Villager and Isabelle are fine
Megaman - Zero? Overwise solo rep
Wii Fit - Solo rep
Punch-out - Solo rep
Mii Fighters - Maybe a Mii Mage
PAC-MAN - Solo rep
Xenoblade - Current reps are fine
Duck Hunt - Solo rep
Street Fighters - Maybe Chun-Li added
Final Fantasy - I'd add Tifa
Bayonetta - Solo rep
Splatoon - Add another fighter
Castlevania - The reps are fine
Persona - Solo rep
Dragon Quest - Solo rep
Banjo - Solo rep
SNK - Solo rep
ARMS - This one is a toss up. Another fighter would be nice
Minecraft - Solo rep
Tekken - Solo rep
Kingdom Hearts - Solo rep

We haven’t had an Ice Climbers character in a while.

 

[GilTheGreat19]

Happy 4th my fellow americans

wtf is a kilometer?

 

[Wonder Smash]

Gengar84

Do you plan on trying other River City/Kunio-kun games?

Re: Mortal Kombat

'What about Sub-Zero?' - Street Fighter 6 Director states he's open to idea of guest characters from Mortal Kombat

If the SF6 director can entertain the idea of a Mortal Kombat - Street Fighter crossover, then I might be able to entertain the idea of Smash one day adding MK to the mix as well, despite the obvious barriers otherwise.

Whatever it takes to finally see a Street Fighter and Mortal Kombat crossover!

 

[fogbadge]

wtf is a kilometer?

1000 meters

 

[DemifiendEnjoyer]

Richter Belmont is probably the most insane character to ever get in Smash Bros
No disrespect he seems cool, I like him more than Simon

 

[smashkirby]

Some people want to see the Sheriff from the Nintendo arcade game of the same name of 1979 and I know what I'm writing is not a question, but if he was to appear as a newcomer, which of the two appearances would you like him to have?
View attachment 391878
View attachment 391879

I'd LOVE to see Sherriff Jack join Smash as a playable character! If you don't mind, I actually have a question for you (and everyone else, for that matter).

In the event that the Sherriff joins Smash, how would you react if his official Smash Bros. render looked realistic and all, but when he's actually PLAYABLE, he uses his 8-bit sprite?

To take things even further, how would you all feel if the OPPOSITE occurred? His Smash Bros. render depicts him as 8-bit, but when you actually play as him, he looks like someone ripped right of Red Dead Redemption?

Very based pick. I approve. I dunno how you could make the OG sprite function as a fighter though, so personally I want him to get a Brawl Pit type redesign. Gruff old aging sheriff with white hairs and a rusted ol' gun. Coolest **** ever.

Speaking of which, how nuts would it be to see Sherriff Jack modeled after Clint Eastwood in a Smash Bros. game???

Kinda wild that it didn't appears on the spirit boards of smash bros ultimate.

That's literally just because StarTropics has never seen any sort of release in Japan. Smash Bros. is very unforgiving to western only games (hence why Mortal Kombat doesn't seem particularly likely).

Also why we (sadly) probably won't be seeing anything borrowed from Gumshoe either...

Personally, I've always found such a thing odd. Like, I know that Smash Bros. is primarily a Japan-based game, but Nintendo's own staff is clearly working on such Western-released games (like StarTropics and the like). If it's an issue of negotiations I'd imagine communication wouldn't have been THAT difficult to execute, would it?

Which series do you guys think would have potential for newcomers?

Mario - Good chance with plenty of selections
DK - Dixie is only big character left
Zelda - Needs a newcomer that's not Link/Zelda/Ganondorf
Metroid - Has potential for DLC.
Yoshi - Solo rep
Kirby - Potentially Bandanna Dee
Star Fox - Right now no.
Pokemon - This one is one of the questions on who due go Gen 9
Mother - Ness and Lucas are fine
F-Zero - Black Shadow would be a nice Echo
Ice Climbers - Solo rep
Fire Emblem - Most likely gonna get a newcomer, but who? DLC is a possibility
Game & Watch - Solo rep
Kid Irceus - Roster is fine
Wario - Ashley would be a nice addition. Overwise, solo rep
Metal Gear Solid - Solo rep
Sonic - LONG overdue for a second rep
Pikmin - I'll say give Olimar another fighter to join. Wasn't Louie supposed to join as a clone in Wii U/3DS?
ROB - Solo rep
Animal Crossing - Villager and Isabelle are fine
Megaman - Zero? Overwise solo rep
Wii Fit - Solo rep
Punch-out - Solo rep
Mii Fighters - Maybe a Mii Mage
PAC-MAN - Solo rep
Xenoblade - Current reps are fine
Duck Hunt - Solo rep
Street Fighters - Maybe Chun-Li added
Final Fantasy - I'd add Tifa
Bayonetta - Solo rep
Splatoon - Add another fighter
Castlevania - The reps are fine
Persona - Solo rep
Dragon Quest - Solo rep
Banjo - Solo rep
SNK - Solo rep
ARMS - This one is a toss up. Another fighter would be nice
Minecraft - Solo rep
Tekken - Solo rep
Kingdom Hearts - Solo rep

Mario - Has its pick of the lot, that's for sure.

D.K. - Like you said, Dixie Kong is pretty much the last 'big' character they have left. I wouldn't mind Cranky and/or Funky, just... NOT before her, please.

Legend of Zelda - Ngl, I've gotten the feeling that Smash intends to adhere to the Triforce concept SO badly, that anyone who's NOT a member of it will automatically get AT'd... I mean, just look at what Brawl was planning to give us as newcomers (Toon Link, alongside Toon Princess Zelda AND Toon Sheik (if it wasn't Tetra)).

Metroid - They've got options, I suppose. Ngl, I see Raven Beak as an ACTUAL boss and the E.M.M.I. as a stage boss or enemy for a new Smash Run/Smash Run-type mode.

Yoshi - I'm fine with Yoshi going solo, but I'm not opposed to Kamek and/or Poochy.

Kirby - Bandana Waddle Dee is first and foremost among my top 3 most wanted. As for Magolor... well, I'm not OPPOSED to him, not in the slightest, but I'd at least hope that if he DOES get into Smash, he and B.W.D. pull a King Dedede/Meta Knight double addition like in Brawl.

Star Fox - Aside from hoping for Krystal, I don't see Star Fox getting anything...

Pokémon - I mean, what CAN I say?? Almost certainly getting a newcomer, it just depends on what generation they want to focus on.

EarthBound- Wouldn't mind Ninten, but aside from him? I'm good with EarthBound where it is.

F-Zero - Black Shadow gaining Ganondorf's Melee/Brawl moveset would be nice. Other than that, Blood Falcon (as an Echo), Jody Summer, Pico, and Samurai Goroh (among other F-Zero pilots) would be welcome additions in my book.

Ice Climber - Fine as they are.

Fire Emblem - Almost definitely getting someone new, but who? What's more, there always DLC for F.E. too...

Game & Watch - Unless they want to pull a Tekken 3 and give us a M(r)s. G&W, I'd say that Mr. G&W by himself is fine.

Kid Icarus - Aside from me wanting Viridi, I'd say they're good on characters.

Wario - Personally speaking, Mona is my most wanted Wario rep after the Big Wah himself, but aside from her? I'm good with just Wario.

Metal Gear - Snake's good by himself.

Sonic - Personally, I don't have any REALLY strong feelings about Sonic getting a new rep, but it DOES sort of weird me out that he's STILL alone, given Sephiroth and all.

Pikmin - I certainly wouldn't mind Pikmin getting more characters (that AREN'T alt. skins). Heck, I'd like Alph to at least be an Echo. But as I've said recently, in the event that we DO only get alt. skin characters, a'la Alph? I think RodNutTakin might have just cracked the code on how the Smash dev team might tackle that front, going forward. With all of that said... at the very least, can poor little Alph show up in more character reveal trailers or something?

R.O.B. - R.O.B.'s fine by himself, but I certainly wouldn't refuse Professor Hector suddenly joining Smash. Perhaps with his assistant Professor Vector as an Alph-styled alt. skin?

Animal Crossing - Personally speaking, Villager and Isabelle are fine for me, but I'm not opposed to Tom Nook, K.K. Slider, and the like.

Mega Man - I legit wouldn't mind the other Mega Men joing Smash alongside the OG (ZX protagonists included). Other than them? Roll and Zero would be welcomed with open arms.

Wii Fit - Wii Fit's fine as it is for me.

Punch-Out!! - I'm fine with just Mac by himself, but a lot of you have sold me on the idea of Doc Louis being sort of a new take on a 'lethal joke character'.

Mii Fighters - Fine with them as they are. Maybe a Mii Magician? I don't know.

PAC-MAN - If not for legal stuff, I'd like Ms. PAC-MAN as an Echo of her husband. Otherwise, I'm good with just PAC-MAN.

Xenoblade - I'd like Rex (Teenager or Adult, either one's fine with me) and Elma. Noah and/or Mio is fine in my book as well.

Duck Hunt - They're fine as they are.

Street Fighter - Chun-Li, at least. For the record, AFTER Chun-Li? I'd be partial to Sakura Kasugano.

Final Fantasy - Tifa, Squall, Tidus, Lightning, Terra, Bartz, Cecil, Zidane. Any of them, though Tifa's sort of my first choice among them.

Bayonetta - Wouldn't mind Jeanne as an Echo, but otherwise? I'm fine with Bayo going solo.

Splatoon - The Octolings almost feel like a given at this point, ngl. Other than them, I'd be fine with any of the idol groups. I don't know, I see D.J. Octavio as a boss, if nothing else.

Castlevania - Fine as they are, though I'm not opposed to folks like Alucard or whoever.

Persona - Fine as it is, but when it comes to Persona? I was sort of rooting for Yu Narukami to join Smash...

Dragon Quest - Fine as it is, but I kind of want to see just what exactly the Slimes could do...

Banjo-Kazooie - Fine as they are.

Fatal Fury/SNK as a whole - Got quite a collection I'd like here. Mai, Rock (with or without B. Jenet), Athena, Nakoruru, Haohmaru, a Metal Slug character (still not sure how I'd want them to tackle that exactly), Kyo (with or without Iori and Chizuru), Ryo

ARMS - Personally, I'd like Spring Man (he was, and still IS, my #1 ARMS choice).

Minecraft - Fine as they are.

Tekken - Would like Jin Kazama (he was/still is my most wanted Tekken character, but I was willing to live with Heihachi or Kazuya).

Kingdom Hearts - Sora's fine by himself in my eyes.

 

[DragonRobotKing26]

Re: Mortal Kombat

'What about Sub-Zero?' - Street Fighter 6 Director states he's open to idea of guest characters from Mortal Kombat

If the SF6 director can entertain the idea of a Mortal Kombat - Street Fighter crossover, then I might be able to entertain the idea of Smash one day adding MK to the mix as well, despite the obvious barriers otherwise.

i want the this crossover could happen,but there's a problem who is,is this crossover will be light on fight or violent like MK games?

 

[Speed Weed]

Also why we (sadly) probably won't be seeing anything borrowed from Gumshoe either...

Personally, I've always found such a thing odd. Like, I know that Smash Bros. is primarily a Japan-based game, but Nintendo's own staff is clearly working on such Western-released games (like StarTropics and the like). If it's an issue of negotiations I'd imagine communication wouldn't have been THAT difficult to execute, would it?

People always frame this situation as these games being willfully ignored but part of me wonders if the Smash team just genuinely does not know about them. Like, I'd imagine whatever database they use as reference to pick spirits probably goes by Japanese releases, so these kinds of games probably just genuinely aren't on their radar

 

[DKing]

Richter Belmont is probably the most insane character to ever get in Smash Bros
No disrespect he seems cool, I like him more than Simon

Its because he is one of the most popular Belmont in japan due of its debut in the PC-engine a 16 bits console.We got Simon and Japan got Richter.

 

[Gengar84]

Gengar84

Do you plan on trying other River City/Kunio-kun games?



Whatever it takes to finally see a Street Fighter and Mortal Kombat crossover!

I’m not sure yet but I’m not opposed. I’ll probably at least play any future River City Girls games they make. I’m really enjoying both of them so far. My favorite character design is probably Marian but Misako’s still my favorite character-wise. Marian’s great there too though.

 

[Swamp Sensei]

Okay. I have seen the light. I have finally started to play Pikmin 4. It's so good you guys and it introduced me to one of my new most wanted characters.

I used to think Pikmin could never really get someone other than Olimar /Aph, but now, I really want Oatchi. The gears in my head are now turning to create a heavyweight Pikmin moveset that focuses less on zoning and more on stage control (often they are synonyms, but not in the moveset in brainstorming).

Oatchi is adorable. He's a fantastic little character and I hope he becomes a break out pick. And to clarify, I don't mean a Pikmin 4 avatar character using Oatchi. I just want Oatchi on his own. He can do so much. And did I mention he's adorable.

If Oatchi has one fan. I'm him. If there are no Oatchi fans, I am dead. I'm hijacking the thread to talk about Oatchi.

#Oatchi4Smash

Discuss.

 

[CannonStreak]

Okay. I have seen the light. I have finally started to play Pikmin 4. It's so good you guys and it introduced me to one of my new most wanted characters.

I used to think Pikmin could never really get someone other than Olimar /Aph, but now, I really want Oatchi. The gears in my head are now turning to create a heavyweight Pikmin moveset that focuses less on zoning and more on stage control (often they are synonyms, but not in the moveset in brainstorming).

Oatchi is adorable. He's a fantastic little character and I hope he becomes a break out pick. And to clarify, I don't mean a Pikmin 4 avatar character using Oatchi. I just want Oatchi on his own. He can do so much. And did I mention he's adorable.

If Oatchi has one fan. I'm him. If there are no Oatchi fans, I am dead. I'm hijacking the thread to talk about Oatchi.

#Oatchi4Smash

Discuss.

Oatchi is the dog, right?

You know, if that character was added, they should add in Poochy from the Yoshi games, too. That way, we can have a dog fight between them and Duck Hunt.

...Or maybe not...

 

[superprincess]

Never got into Pikmin, but Oatchi's design is so weird that I'd like to see him in. It's not often that Sakurai gets to design weirdly proportioned creatures, but whenever he does it turns out fun.

 

[Gorgonzales]

Okay. I have seen the light. I have finally started to play Pikmin 4. It's so good you guys and it introduced me to one of my new most wanted characters.

I used to think Pikmin could never really get someone other than Olimar /Aph, but now, I really want Oatchi. The gears in my head are now turning to create a heavyweight Pikmin moveset that focuses less on zoning and more on stage control (often they are synonyms, but not in the moveset in brainstorming).

Oatchi is adorable. He's a fantastic little character and I hope he becomes a break out pick. And to clarify, I don't mean a Pikmin 4 avatar character using Oatchi. I just want Oatchi on his own. He can do so much. And did I mention he's adorable.

If Oatchi has one fan. I'm him. If there are no Oatchi fans, I am dead. I'm hijacking the thread to talk about Oatchi.

#Oatchi4Smash

Discuss.

Yeah, I'd want Oatchi in. He's got such a fun design and a big role in Pikmin 4.

Re-iterating my thoughts on how Oatchi could work from a while ago:

I'd want an Oatchi moveset to use Pikmin for (mostly) non-combat purposes to:

1. set him apart my showing he can fend for himself better than an ordinary captain could, and
2. show off the different ways Pikmin are used in their home game

Oatchi could perform most of his attacks on his own while the Pikmin cling to his back at all times. As for use of Pikmin, I'm envisioning a context-sensitive Down B, where:

• if used on solid ground, you dismiss the Pikmin and they dig for an item that can help you
• if used right near a ledge, Pikmin will use Raw Material to build a bridge outward from the ledge and effectively extend it
• if used on an average-sized soft platform (or smaller), they attack it in a frenzy until it shatters (like how they attack obstacles/dirt walls). It wouldn't be gone forever obviously, but it would render that platform unusable for a bit

I'm spitballing but you get the picture. Everything Pikmin-combat-related should be Olimar's forte, I feel. I'd prefer him to be the one to master the use of all 8 main types for combat purposes (not all at once but I would like him to have access to them somehow), and also I don't think every Pikmin character should be just "they throw Pikmin lol" when there's so many more ways the concept can for a Pikmin character can be taken.

And also Moss is too proportionally different for an echo fighter, but I'd love to see her as a semi clone (if her color palette doesn't end up being an alt skin for Oatchi).

At the very least she should show up in a victory screen for Olimar so we can work towards remedying the whole "he has the personality of a soggy chunk of cardboard" thing he suffers from in Smash.

 

[SPEN18]

Yeah I went into Pikmin 4 not knowing how I'd end up feeling about Oatchi as a Smash candidate. But playing the game you see that he's more than a side character embodying a tack-on gimmick. He's just as important both gameplay- and plot-wise as anybody else in that game. You also see that he has a lot of unique abilities that take him way farther than one might think; the fundamental asymmetry in the abilities of Oatchi and the player avatar makes things way more interesting than just having two captains, as you have to determine carefully who does what.
So I think Oatchi is a great choice for a second Pikmin rep, which would feel warranted with the renewed health of the series. And yeah I think a good Oatchi moveset would be one which emphasizes his unique functions not shared with other Pikmin captains. You could also potentially use him as a vessel to explore further Pikmin types such as Rock, Ice, or Glow, but only without losing sight of his personal identity.

 

[Pupp135]

For this,

Surprised that it took Steve years to get in when Banjo got in faster

Makes me question how Ultimate would've been if Steve was held until the next game as one of the first third-party characters.

So let's discuss the idea of characters from a series. Which series do you guys think would have potential for newcomers?

Mario - Good chance with plenty of selections
DK - Dixie is only big character left
Zelda - Needs a newcomer that's not Link/Zelda/Ganondorf
Metroid - Has potential for DLC.
Yoshi - Solo rep
Kirby - Potentially Bandanna Dee
Star Fox - Right now no.
Pokemon - This one is one of the questions on who due go Gen 9
Mother - Ness and Lucas are fine
F-Zero - Black Shadow would be a nice Echo
Ice Climbers - Solo rep
Fire Emblem - Most likely gonna get a newcomer, but who? DLC is a possibility
Game & Watch - Solo rep
Kid Irceus - Roster is fine
Wario - Ashley would be a nice addition. Overwise, solo rep
Metal Gear Solid - Solo rep
Sonic - LONG overdue for a second rep
Pikmin - I'll say give Olimar another fighter to join. Wasn't Louie supposed to join as a clone in Wii U/3DS?
ROB - Solo rep
Animal Crossing - Villager and Isabelle are fine
Megaman - Zero? Overwise solo rep
Wii Fit - Solo rep
Punch-out - Solo rep
Mii Fighters - Maybe a Mii Mage
PAC-MAN - Solo rep
Xenoblade - Current reps are fine
Duck Hunt - Solo rep
Street Fighters - Maybe Chun-Li added
Final Fantasy - I'd add Tifa
Bayonetta - Solo rep
Splatoon - Add another fighter
Castlevania - The reps are fine
Persona - Solo rep
Dragon Quest - Solo rep
Banjo - Solo rep
SNK - Solo rep
ARMS - This one is a toss up. Another fighter would be nice
Minecraft - Solo rep
Tekken - Solo rep
Kingdom Hearts - Solo rep

For this one, I’ll primarily focus on the franchises that are more prominent in the speculation scene.

Super Mario: Just like every SSB game barring Brawl, I’m expecting a newcomer or two from the Super Mario series. Because of his popularity in the SSB speculation scene, I’m assuming that Waluigi is the most probable character from the series. In terms of other characters, I’m really unsure who’s second place. While Toad is a major character, I feel like this has been a case where Sakurai wasn’t really interested in him during the Brawl and For eras, and I feel like the character hasn’t clicked for Sakurai. If the character does join, I’d like a Toadette echo. Geno is in a weird position as he’s tied to Square Enix, and he’s probably going to need to compete with at least Cloud, Sephiroth, and Hero especially if Sqaure doesn’t want them to be in base game. I don’t think that they’ll necessarily join given the novelty wearing off with Piranha Plant, but a second mook could be cool to see. Pauline has been a character growing in the spinoff series, but I could see her also being passed for being a little bit harder to conceptualize compared to Rosalina at the time of SSB For. King Boo and Kamek are also interesting and overlooked picks. I forgot about Paper Mario initially, and he‘s probably the second most likely Mario newcomer when I come to think about it as there’s not many drawbacks against the character, he has a good number of requests, and Zelda/Sheik and Zero Suit Samus have proven that alternate versions of the same character can have distinct movesets from one another.

Donkey Kong: I don’t there would necessarily be an interest from the developers to add a new Donkey Kong character given that an entirely new game isn’t currently in the timeline, but Dixie Kong stands out legacy wise. If they want to be experimental, Funky Kong and Cranky Kong could be interesting choices.

Wario: The series has been surprisingly successful in the ‘20s, and Ashley is a decently popular request, so I wouldn’t rule her out as a newcomer. While not a lock, it’s something that I’d consider plausible.

Legend of Zelda: The Legend of Zelda is a weird franchise in terms of newcomers. On the one hand, a newcomer would be cool to see as they have many interesting choices, and the franchise hasn’t expanded beyond of its core cast. On the other hand, I’m skeptical on the likelihood on a new fighter based on prior experience, but I guess that may be a case where the Skyward Sword candidates didn’t interest Sakurai much during For’s development, and Ultimate had a very narrow character selection. If we were to get another one-off fighter, it would probably be someone who’s either relevant at the time of their addition like Sheik during Melee’s development, or it‘s a less relevant one-off who receives a good number of requests (most likely Skull Kid and Midna in this case). If it’s a recurring fighter, my best guess is Impa at the moment given that she is the most recurring choice at the moment and is a relevant character in the series.

Metroid: The series has its most prominent bases covered, but I think Raven Beak or E.M.M.I. would be cool to see.

Kirby: I feel like Bandana Waddle Dee is the character to join if we get another one as he’s both a recurring and requested fighter. Other choices like Marx, Adeline, or Magolor would be cool to see too.

Pokemon: I feel like this one primarily hinges on timing and which pokemon are available when they add from the newest generation. Other ones that join would probably have an incredibly large number of requests. If we do get a requested one, I think something like Gengar, Eevee, Mew, Scizor, or Garchomp would be feasible.

Fire Emblem: Like with pokemon, this will hinge primarily with timing, and it doesn’t currently seem to be in the series’s favor at the moment, and it would most likely be the protagonist after Alear at this point. If we did get a requested character, my best guesses are currently Lyn, Tiki, and one of the three House lords.

Sonic the Hedgehog: I can see this series getting a second fighter as the big four characters (Tails, Knuckles, Shadow, and Eggman) are all pretty popular video game characters, and there have multiple assists and Mii outfits for the franchise. At the minimum, I’d assume a Shadow echo joins. At most, we get a Shadow echo and maybe one additional newcomer. In terms of what I’d want to add, Amy is one of my most wanted fighters.

Pikmin: This franchise may have a decent chance of gaining a newcomer given Pikmin 4 and Miyamoto’s interest in the franchise. I wouldn’t say Oatchi is the most probable, and I could see a captain as an echo.

Animal Crossing: An Animal Crossing character seems like a reasonable addition, and Tom Nook and K. K. Slider would be the two most probable options in my opinion, and I feel like the decision for one over the other mostly depends on which one is considered to be the more interesting fighter.

Xenoblade: Xenoblade is pretty much in the same position as Fire Emblem more or less. Melia, Fiora, Rex, Noah, or Mio should be feasible if Xenoblade doesn’t pick a post Xenoblade 3 character.

Street Fighter: Chun Li does seem like a feasible pick if they decide to add a second unique Street Fighter character given her legacy in gaming.

Final Fantasy: I think this series will primarily focus on bringing back Cloud and if possible, Sephiroth, and I’m expecting Tifa to join if we were to receive a third fighter as the focus has been on FFVII. My most wanted is Tidus.

Splatoon: Octoling is probably going to make the roster in some capacity, and I’m leaning towards them being an echo, and another character would be chosen as a more unique idea like DJ Ocatavio or a Pop Idol Duo.

 

[DarthEnderX]

In the event that the Sherriff joins Smash, how would you react if his official Smash Bros. render looked realistic and all, but when he's actually PLAYABLE, he uses his 8-bit sprite?

I wouldn't like it.

Also, I'm not sure Sheriff's sprite is actually 8-bit. It predates the NES by quite a bit.

 

[dream1ng]

I've mentioned it before but my thing with Alear is this.

We know from what Sakurai said about Robin getting in that Awakening releasing right when the roster was being decided on was crucial. Had Awakening been released any later OR EARLIER, they may have missed the cut. Engage released in January 2023. Smash games typically have two year development cycles, and Sakurai is only now wrapping up his other projects like his YouTube channel. The earliest I can see a project plan being drafted is June 2024...a year and a half after Engage released.

I know this is tangential to your point, but Sakurai is capable of doing more than just his youtube videos; it's not like he's the editor, translator, artist, or sources a majority of the clips. He pays people to do that stuff.

Yes it is more work than his biweekly famitsu column (remember he also did that regularly for years during the development of games), but not to the extent it would preclude someone as much of a workaholic and multitasker as Sakurai from getting the jump on his next project.

I'm assuming Studio S is for Smash, and I can't see them having sat around since their formation last year. Especially since there has been known Smash activity in the spirits, which is likely indicative of them being at work on something else and allocating a small amount of time and resources to Ultimate. Keep in mind some of those spirits required parties like Sega, Atlus and Konami on board... which was likely done in tandem with locking down their support for Smash 6 - meaning at least base had likely already been largely decided at that point.

Yes most of that is speculative and unsubstantiated, but I think it's more of a smoking gun than Sakurai's videos ending. Also, don't discount that a lot of his videos may have been banked from earlier, at least in terms of scripting and shooting.

At that point, Alear getting in would necessitate specifically going back for an older Fire Emblem character. And that isn't impossible! Marth and Chrom both got in after that window of peak relevance. But then there's the elephant in the room...if they were to go back for a Fire Emblem character, there are several picks that are far more popular than Alear, who isn't even the second most popular character in their own game (hi, Yunaka and Ivy). After that brief window of relevance, Alear then has to compete with juggernauts like Lyn, Edelgard, Dimitri, and Claude, all of whom are just as important as Alear, and also leaps and bounds more popular.

I genuinely believe it's more likely that we get Lyn or Edelgard than it is that we'll get Alear, and that's coming from someone who really enjoyed Engage. Timing is just not at all on its side.

I agree that at the point of selection, even were it last year like I believe - given Sakurai would know the timeframe of when this game was set to release, and were it the case that he knew from IS that there was going to be a more recent title by that point (but still too distant for base), I could see him voluntarily omitting a FE newcomer in base and instead allocating a spot in the DLC rollout (probably early on) to that newer character.

Especially if this game has less of a focus on base and more on the continued support thereafter.

That said, if none of that comes to pass for any reason, going back to Engage isn't the same as going back to any of the titles which preceded it. Going back to Engage is going back to FE's most recent new, original title. It will have released very much within where Smash 6 will look back towards: everything that's released since the last round of selection in mid-2019. That's going to be the window for the brunt of (first-party) base content. And Engage will actually be towards the most recent part of it.

That's very different than going back to like 2003 for Lyn. It's just taking from FE's most recent title. Yes that title may be a few years old, but... it wasn't at the point of selection, whether last year or this year. I mean, Ike was the most recent FE character when Brawl selected its roster in 2005, then by 2008 - yes he was still in the most recent game - but there had been a whole newer game since, that came and went before Brawl even released.

 

[smashkirby]

People always frame this situation as these games being willfully ignored but part of me wonders if the Smash team just genuinely does not know about them. Like, I'd imagine whatever database they use as reference to pick spirits probably goes by Japanese releases, so these kinds of games probably just genuinely aren't on their radar

I'd agree with you, but I'm almost certain that Sakurai, in an interview pertaining to Melee, told the interviewer speaking to him (in a matter-of-fact manner that almost comes off as hilarious, I might add) that non-Japanese content would NOT appear in the form of Trophies. I assume that's including stuff that Nintendo had made, like StarTropics and Gumshoe.

With that said, I'm still confused about how they look at games like Pilotwings 64, which seems to have absolutely NO reference made to its existence in Smash Bros., outside of Brawl's Chronicle...

For the record, Pilotwings 64 WAS released in Japan. I mean, MAYBE it was a situation like Sukapon and Joy Mech Fight as a whole, where legal issues prevented any major reference to that game, but still.

 

[Swamp Sensei]

I'd agree with you, but I'm almost certain that Sakurai, in an interview pertaining to Melee, told the interviewer speaking to him (in a matter-of-fact manner that almost comes off as hilarious, I might add) that non-Japanese content would NOT appear in the form of Trophies. I assume that's including stuff that Nintendo had made, like StarTropics and Gumshoe.

With that said, I'm still confused about how they look at games like Pilotwings 64, which seems to have absolutely NO reference made to its existence in Smash Bros., outside of Brawl's Chronicle...

For the record, Pilotwings 64 WAS released in Japan. I mean, MAYBE it was a situation like Sukapon and Joy Mech Fight as a whole, where legal issues prevented any major reference to that game, but still.

Speaking of which, I miss Chronicle. I'd love to be able to separate it by series.

 

[SMAASH! Puppy]

In the event that the Sherriff joins Smash, how would you react if his official Smash Bros. render looked realistic and all, but when he's actually PLAYABLE, he uses his 8-bit sprite?

To take things even further, how would you all feel if the OPPOSITE occurred? His Smash Bros. render depicts him as 8-bit, but when you actually play as him, he looks like someone ripped right of Red Dead Redemption?

Either way is pretty terrible. Players will go in expecting one thing and get something completely different.

 

[Hadokeyblade]

Re: Mortal Kombat

'What about Sub-Zero?' - Street Fighter 6 Director states he's open to idea of guest characters from Mortal Kombat

If the SF6 director can entertain the idea of a Mortal Kombat - Street Fighter crossover, then I might be able to entertain the idea of Smash one day adding MK to the mix as well, despite the obvious barriers otherwise.

If a Mortal Kombat character becomes a guest in a future Street fighter i think it should be Johnny Cage.

Mostly because he tonally fits the world of street fighter better than most other MK characters due to just being an actor who got roped into the supernatural world of MK.
Maybe connect him to Fei long or something.

Surprised that it took Steve years to get in when Banjo got in faster

Makes me question how Ultimate would've been if Steve was held until the next game as one of the first third-party characters.

So let's discuss the idea of characters from a series. Which series do you guys think would have potential for newcomers?

There is a lot of potential when it comes to a second Megaman rep.
They could go the easy route of including Protoman or Bass as a classic Megaman echo fighter using their attributes from Megaman and Bass, Megaman 9 and Megaman 10.
Or they could get creative and put in Zero or Tron Bonne, using their movesets from the Vs Capcom series or even Megaman.EXE to represent the Megaman RPG's.

Hell maybe they could get really wacky and include Megaman Zero instead of the Zero were all familiar with from the X games (Megaman Zero has a different design and moveset from the X series Zero)

 

[Wonder Smash]

If a Mortal Kombat character becomes a guest in a future Street fighter i think it should be Johnny Cage.

Mostly because he tonally fits the world of street fighter better than most other MK characters due to just being an actor who got roped into the supernatural world of MK.
Maybe connect him to Fei long or something.

I'm...not sure how that makes him more fitting.

The thing is, Scorpion and Sub-Zero are pretty much like the mascots of the series. You pretty much can't get a better rep than the MK ninjas.

 

[SMAASH! Puppy]

Considering full fighters only:

Spoiler

Certainty
Death, Taxes, & : I think this will either be a Gen 10 starter, or Eevee if one isn't available. Eevee seems like the most likely pick for them to go back for, and since Pokémon Scarlet/Violet is old now, and Pokémon Legends Z-A is a spin-off, I don't see them adding a character from either game just for promotion's sake. Gen 10's going to release very close to SSBNext, so I'll give the edge to that outcome, but something else is actually a possibility for once.
Highly Likely
: Waluigi is the most likely, but for one reason or another, he could get snubbed for (Captain) Toad or King Boo.
: I am biased, but with the success of Kirby and the Forgotten Land, I think it's time for Bandana Waddle Dee to take the stage.
: I think Tom Nook is just shy of being a lock. I also think he's not going to overlap with Villager and Isabelle and instead offer something entirely different.
: I think Splatoon will be getting a non-echo fighter, even if it's Octoling. Octoling will be like the Lucas to Inkling's Ness. Alternitively could be D.J. Octavio or an idol, but Octoling seems more likely.
Plausible
(Geno): If Geno is added, he will probably be a second Mario character rather than being the only one.
: It's been a long time since the series has gotten a character, but barring a surprise Skull Kid, there aren't too many compelling options. Rauru is possible, but not typically the kind of character they'd pick, and it's more likely they'd just change Link and consider The Legend of Zelda: Tears of the Kingdom repped.
: I feel like Sylux is a possibility to promote Metroid Prime 4, but it's also very possible they don't bother for a lot of reasons, not the least of which being power fantasy overlap with Samus and Dark Samus.
: I could see Kamek happening, but being coined as a Yoshi character, as this is his debut, though he's really just operating as one of the less likely options for a Mario character here.
: WarioWare is still going pretty strong, so Ashley is an option. Not the most likely, but one I veer more towards the side of optimism on.
: There's a lot of different options they could pick here, but any one of them could happen.
: I think Pikmin is poised for a newcomer, and I'm still optimistic on Oatchi, but I cant deny the possibility of them just giveing Olimar a new costume and calling it a day.
: Chun-Li is has a pretty decent shot at getting added. Luke also does, kinda, but I'd say Chun-Li's chances are much greater.
: Jin is a pretty plausible pick, either being added alongside or instead of Kazuya.
Implausible
: They could try to go back and add Lyn, but I don't think they're super likely to do this.
: Zero could be added, but I'm not super optimistic on them doing so.
: With Noah/Mio no longer being promo picks, it's pretty likely that Xenoblade Chronicles 3 will skip out on a character. Maybe Xenoblade Chronicles 4 will have a shot in the DLC? Crap, depending on how things go Pyra/Mythra could be the last Xenoblade Chronicles characters for a good long while.
: Not unless we're replacing Simon and Richter with Alucard.
Nope

EDIT: Full Newcomer Predictions:

1. Gen 10 Starter/Eevee
2. Waluigi
3. Bandana Waddle Dee
4. Tom Nook
5. Octoling
6. Oatchi
7. Monster Hunter
8. Ring & Ring Fit Trainee
9. Skull Kid
10. Geno
11. Surprise Pick (Assuming it isn't Skull Kid)
12. Chun-Li

I usually include Officer Howard here, but like Noah/Mio and Alear, their ship has kinda sailed. Unless Astral Chain 2 is gonna be a thing soon, they no in.