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Official Next Smash - Speculation & Discussion Thread

osby

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Apr 25, 2018
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23,642
So, Smash 4 newcomers had

80s characters::4pacman::4littlemac::4duckhunt::4palutena::4ryu::4megaman:
90s characters: :4cloud:
2000s characters: :4villager::4bowserjr::rosalina::4wiifit::4bayonetta:(+:4miibrawl::4miigun::4miisword:)
2010s characters::4shulk::4robinm::4greninja::4corrin:(+:4darkpit::4lucina:)

I consider Miis and clone fighters exceptions to how the other characters are chosen but you can ignore the parentheses. Either way, it looks like rather than focusing on any specific time periods, the game was just pretty bad at representing the 90s. Personally, I think this is one of the main reasons why this line of newcomers gets such a bad rep, as that's probably the decade that Smash fandom has the most nostalgia for.

If you look at Ultimate's newcomers, it's pretty much just as lopsided, with the 2000s getting very few newcomers this time instead.

80s characters::ultpiranha::ultridley::ultsimon:(+:ultken::ultdaisy:)
90s characters::ult_terry::ultkrool::ultkazuya::ultsephiroth::ultbanjokazooie:(+:ultrichter:)
2000s characters: :ultsora:(+:ultdarksamus:)
2010s characters: :ultsteve::ultisabelle::ultinkling::ultjoker::ultincineroar::ultminmin:ultpyra::ultmythra::ultbyleth:(+:ultchrom:)
All: :ulthero:
 
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RileyXY1

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7,225
I could not find any recent news articles what exactly has the ESRB changed or done that is a threat to Smash (or any games)?
It's basically a new policy that the ESRB implemented that banned games from referencing or mentioning games of a higher rating. It has affected Smash a bit by making it so they weren't allowed to reference where certain Mii Fighter costumes came from, and now the 13 Sentinels, Zagreus, and Noah and Mio Spirits don't even have text listing what game or series they came from, a first for the series. Now there's concern that certain characters may be cut entirely so that the game can see a release in the United States.
 

SMAASH! Puppy

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I could not find any recent news articles what exactly has the ESRB changed or done that is a threat to Smash (or any games)?
IMO, nothing. The policy change everyone is talking about though, is that if you include a reference to a game with a higher age rating than the game that's making the reference, that ups the game's age rating. So something as simple as a Smash X Doom tagline or having a clearly labeled Doom section in the music menu would bump up the game's age rating to M. It's why we have Altair from the Altair series.

Seeing as how easy the workaround could be, I don't think this will affect roster choices or cause veterans to get cut.
 

SpecterFlower

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I don't think that Nintendo higher ups would approve of a T-rated Smash game ever again, so there might have to be a massive roster cut down just to ensure the game would release in the United States. I don't know if Sakurai would want to add a character where he can't even mention where they came from.
They will

between a t rated smash and a smash that’s t rated or a smash game that doesn’t have the appeal of a smash game they will go the former route.

Getting rid of everything M rated and a lot of t rated stuff means getting rid of almost every hardcore title.
 

Hadokeyblade

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It's basically a new policy that the ESRB implemented that banned games from referencing or mentioning games of a higher rating. It has affected Smash a bit by making it so they weren't allowed to reference where certain Mii Fighter costumes came from, and now the 13 Sentinels, Zagreus, and Noah and Mio Spirits don't even have text listing what game or series they came from, a first for the series. Now there's concern that certain characters may be cut entirely so that the game can see a release in the United States.
Nobody is concerned about that, only you.


So, Smash 4 newcomers had

80s characters::4pacman::4littlemac::4duckhunt::4palutena::4ryu::4megaman:
90s characters: :4cloud:
2000s characters: :4villager::4bowserjr::rosalina::4wiifit::4bayonetta:(+:4miibrawl::4miigun::4miisword:)
2010s characters::4shulk::4robinm::4greninja::4corrin:(+:4darkpit::4lucina:)

I consider Miis and clone fighters exceptions to how the other characters are chosen but you can ignore the parentheses. Either way, it looks like rather than focusing on any specific time periods, the game was just pretty bad at representing the 90s. Personally, I think this is one of the main reasons why this line of newcomers gets such a bad rep, as that's probably the decade that Smash fandom has the most nostalgia for.

If you look at Ultimate's newcomers, it's pretty much just as lopsided, with the 2000s getting very few newcomers this time instead.

80s characters::ultpiranha::ultridley::ultsimon:(:ultken::ultdaisy:)
90s characters::ult_terry::ultkrool::ultkazuya::ultsephiroth::ultbanjokazooie:(:ultrichter:)
2000s characters: :ultsora:(:ultdarksamus:)
2010s characters: :ultsteve::ultisabelle::ultinkling::ultjoker::ultincineroar::ultminmin:ultpyra::ultmythra::ultbyleth:(:ultchrom:)
All: :ulthero:
I feel like Steve should technically count as 2000's.
 

SPEN18

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Yeah as much as I would still be very down for Excitebiker, for example, they really do need to expand the meaning of "retro" beyond just the 80s. Hopefully stuff like K Rool and Isaac doing well on the ballot was enough of a kick to get them to realize how much of their audience is becoming (or has long been) highly nostalgic for the 90s and 00s. They already know an out-of-the-blue throwback rep is a good way to both surprise and please people.
 

Gengar84

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Yeah as much as I would still be very down for Excitebiker, for example, they really do need to expand the meaning of "retro" beyond just the 80s. Hopefully stuff like K Rool and Isaac doing well on the ballot was enough of a kick to get them to realize how much of their audience is becoming (or has long been) highly nostalgic for the 90s and 00s. They already know an out-of-the-blue throwback rep is a good way to both surprise and please people.
Yeah, I was born in ‘84 (hence my user name) but I’d say there are more SNES characters on my most wanted list than NES. For NES, the biggest three on my personal most wanted list are Bill Rizer, the Battletoads and a Goomba. SNES has Magus, Fulgore, Sub-Zero, Zero, Dixie Kong, and Guile.
 
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KneeOfJustice99

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EDIT: I think even 3rd party NES picks are limited to Ninja Gaiden and Contra, so I see "retro" picks expanding to SNES and Game Boy pretty soon.
As much as this is probably true, there's two third-party companies I wouldn't write off who kind of fill this role of "classic" characters on a third-party level - Sunsoft and Taito. Taito especially springs to mind as a really prominent piece of arcade history that'd be a no-brainer to include in some way or another (even if not in a playable role, games like Space Invaders and Arkanoid feel like no-brainers for some kind of representation in my mind), but Sunsoft - while not as outright obvious - have been maintaining a decent rapport of releases on Nintendo platforms as of recent and have a decent amount of history back with the NES, plus they have arguably several logical candidates for playable or assist trophy roles

I don't think they're necessarily as likely - Ninja Gaiden especially has a lot going for it considering it's owned by Koei-Tecmo, who seem to have pretty good Nintendo relations and already (technically) have some content in Smash already - but I wouldn't write them off entirely, even in a smaller role.
 

osby

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IMO, nothing. The policy change everyone is talking about though, is that if you include a reference to a game with a higher age rating than the game that's making the reference, that ups the game's age rating. So something as simple as a Smash X Doom tagline or having a clearly labeled Doom section in the music menu would bump up the game's age rating to M. It's why we have Altair from the Altair series.

Seeing as how easy the workaround could be, I don't think this will affect roster choices or cause veterans to get cut.
Joker from the Joker series.
Snake from the Snake series.
Bayonetta from the uuuuhhhh... Cereza series? Yeah.
 

Slime Scholar

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Does anyone actually have an explanation of this apparent ESRB policy from the ESRB themselves?

Like, obviously something was going on with them not naming certain M-rated series (like Super Smash Bros. X Travis). But I’ve only ever seen it referenced by Smash fans and never actually sourced. Surely it can’t be so cut and dry?

I can’t help but think that there must be exceptions. If you can’t reference a game with a higher ESRB rating than yours, wouldn’t that prevent a T-rated game from having an E-10 sequel? It has to be more complicated than this.
 

BritishGuy54

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Re: NES Retro picks
I might have an unpopular opinion here, but I think the time of the NES retro picks are over. They’ll still be around. But as time moves on, we’ll see more pandering to younger crowds.

I think the current GBA/GCN crowd have a few points, honestly, with heavily requested characters such as Isaac and Advance Wars characters. Even Waluigi isn’t too far off from this era from his debut.

But I imagine in the next few years, we will see a bit of a shift just before, during, or after the base game release of Smash 6. That would be the shift towards DS/Wii nostalgia.

So what kind of characters can we expect from that era? I’m not sure, as a lot of those picks are already here. Strong hitters such as Rosalina, Shulk, Lucario, etc are here now.

Re: Too soon to cut?
A minor point here. I think it’s too early to axe any characters from Animal Crossing and Xenoblade. If they had multiple characters, Pikmin and Splatoon would be here too.

The reason why I say this is because I think it’s important to understand the state of these two franchises.

Both Isabelle and Pythra were added in Ultimate, and are characters I see frequently axed on fan-made rosters. Personally, it’s too early to call with these two.

One, their series lack greater representation. With two characters each, I can see Isabelle and Pythra become the recurring faces of each game here on out. They’re the modern day Ike and Lucario, in a way. We’ll get characters swapped in and out, as time goes on, but I think these two (or three) are here to stay.

Two, their series are still young. Xenoblade is only on its third main game, and Animal Crossing is on its fourth (turning fifth) console generation. I just think it’s too early to call on these two series, and this is my view of this.

Re: ESRB
I don't think that Nintendo higher ups would approve of a T-rated Smash game ever again, so there might have to be a massive roster cut down just to ensure the game would release in the United States. I don't know if Sakurai would want to add a character where he can't even mention where they came from.
I think Nintendo will just bite the bullet and make it T-rated. It’s been T-rated before, but for a different reason. But that shouldn’t matter much.

At least with a T-rating, that damage is minimal, likely only 3 out of 89 characters leaving, and basically all Nintendo series staying as they are. The real loser here is Sega, getting two of their three characters cut, so it could be a decent excuse to add another Sonic character.

If, and only if Nintendo keeps it E10+, Square Enix would barely have any pawns to play, besides only Geno at this point, and Konami less so. Capcom and Namco are relegated to Mega Man and Pac-Man respectively. Microsoft comes out of this fine. In fact, it might beneficial to them here.

And in that worst case scenario, you get a subsect of fans cheering that there’s no more anime swordfighters, but then throw a hissy-fit that Metroid and Mother also got cut for the same reason.

But again, I don’t think Nintendo will sacrifice a third of the roster so they can please the ESRB. I get worrying about that possibility, and it may be important to keep in mind going into next game’s speculation, but I can tell a lot of people are a bit tired of the subject popping up time and time again.
 

Scrimblo Bimblo

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Does anyone actually have an explanation of this apparent ESRB policy from the ESRB themselves?

Like, obviously something was going on with them not naming certain M-rated series (like Super Smash Bros. X Travis). But I’ve only ever seen it referenced by Smash fans and never actually sourced. Surely it can’t be so cut and dry?

I can’t help but think that there must be exceptions. If you can’t reference a game with a higher ESRB rating than yours, wouldn’t that prevent a T-rated game from having an E-10 sequel? It has to be more complicated than this.
Thinking about it, it might even be a DLC only thing. Those go through a separate rating process, and 99% of this type of crossovers are DLC of some kind... Have we had a collective brain fart?
 

pitchfulprocessing

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Does anyone actually have an explanation of this apparent ESRB policy from the ESRB themselves?

Like, obviously something was going on with them not naming certain M-rated series (like Super Smash Bros. X Travis). But I’ve only ever seen it referenced by Smash fans and never actually sourced. Surely it can’t be so cut and dry?

I can’t help but think that there must be exceptions. If you can’t reference a game with a higher ESRB rating than yours, wouldn’t that prevent a T-rated game from having an E-10 sequel? It has to be more complicated than this.
I think it's impossible for anybody to know without actually being a major game developer who deals with the ESRB. The ESRB guidelines aren't publically available and are only sent out to devs or marketing when needed. It definitely seems to a be a thing more generally for at least marketing, you can see games like this having a note at the beginning saying the higher-rated series logos featured are rated T, but it's mostly just gleamed from contextual evidence. I don't think anybody really knows the extent of it or what the exact policy is.
 

BritishGuy54

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Messages
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Thinking about it, it might even be a DLC only thing. Those go through a separate rating process, and 99% of this type of crossovers are DLC of some kind... Have we had a collective brain fart?

Here’s one of the guidelines, as follows:

“Companies must not specifically target advertising for entertainment software products rated “Teen,” “Mature,” or “Adults Only” to consumers for whom the product is not rated as appropriate.”
 

TheQuester

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Yeah as much as I would still be very down for Excitebiker, for example, they really do need to expand the meaning of "retro" beyond just the 80s. Hopefully stuff like K Rool and Isaac doing well on the ballot was enough of a kick to get them to realize how much of their audience is becoming (or has long been) highly nostalgic for the 90s and 00s. They already know an out-of-the-blue throwback rep is a good way to both surprise and please people.
I honestly think they have to add more modern 3rd parties and not focus the older ones, Steve (and Joker) were a good start to focus on the newer generation.
I noticed plenty of Younger Zoomers have little interest in Smash Bros. (at least comapred to Millenials and Older Zoomers) because they don't care about 90% of the roster.
This why i think they could add some of the more modern IPs like Undertale, Fortnite, Genshin, Nier: Automata, Brawl Stars or Older modern classics like League of Legends, Angry Birds, Mass Effect and the like which are pretty popular with the younger generations, plenty of Millenials like those IPs too, so it's a win/win, eitherway.
 
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fogbadge

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Nintendo also has pretty much most of their important character in is the main difference.

there’s some bad misses but for the most part when your most important characters are Ashley, a rhythm heaven rep, Tom nook, bandanna waddle dee, Dixie king.

it makes sense why they could take a backseat to much more populist 3rd party characters
I could be wrong but it sounds like you’re saying Ashley is important while toad is not
 

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TheQuester

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So, Smash 4 newcomers had

80s characters::4pacman::4littlemac::4duckhunt::4palutena::4ryu::4megaman:
90s characters: :4cloud:
2000s characters: :4villager::4bowserjr::rosalina::4wiifit::4bayonetta:(+:4miibrawl::4miigun::4miisword:)
2010s characters::4shulk::4robinm::4greninja::4corrin:(+:4darkpit::4lucina:)

I consider Miis and clone fighters exceptions to how the other characters are chosen but you can ignore the parentheses. Either way, it looks like rather than focusing on any specific time periods, the game was just pretty bad at representing the 90s. Personally, I think this is one of the main reasons why this line of newcomers gets such a bad rep, as that's probably the decade that Smash fandom has the most nostalgia for.

If you look at Ultimate's newcomers, it's pretty much just as lopsided, with the 2000s getting very few newcomers this time instead.

80s characters::ultpiranha::ultridley::ultsimon:(+:ultken::ultdaisy:)
90s characters::ult_terry::ultkrool::ultkazuya::ultsephiroth::ultbanjokazooie:(+:ultrichter:)
2000s characters: :ultsora:(+:ultdarksamus:)
2010s characters: :ultsteve::ultisabelle::ultinkling::ultjoker::ultincineroar::ultminmin:ultpyra::ultmythra::ultbyleth:(+:ultchrom:)
All: :ulthero:
I wonder how many 2020s characters there will be in Smash 6.
For some reason i can't think of that many 2020s reps that could join, does anyone here have a list of potential '20s reps?
 
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DemifiendEnjoyer

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Maybe an unconventional take, I think Mametchi from Tamagotchi would be a pretty cool choice.
Like a lot of people, even people who aren't big into video games, Know what Tamagotchi is.
I think Mametchi is a pretty logical Bandai Namco choice.
I guess you could argue that Tamagotchi isn't a Video Game but I think Virtual Pets should count as a game genre.
 

Gengar84

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Masahiro Sakurai looking at me dead in the eye as he announces Noah & Mio from the Aionios series are joining Smash (I live in the US)
I liked Xenoblade 3 so I’ll be happy to see them in Smash. They’re not my top most wanted Xenoblade characters but I do still like both of them. One thing I think would be interesting and help them stand out from Pyra/Mythra’s transform gimmick is to make their Ouroboros fusion form the playable character and have them fuse as a stage intro animation.

Z from Xenoblade 3.
I think they should go for the villain next time around.
Also Nahobino maybe, I would prefer Demifiend.
Z has a really cool design. I’d gladly take either him or Moebius D&J as the series’ first playable villain.
 
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CannonStreak

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I think it’s rather unrealistic to expect both Noah and Mio
I was thinking the same thing, actually.

With that, to everyone here, if only one of them can get into the next Smash Bros., (and that is most likely) which character would you all prefer to be playable? Noah or Mio?
 

Gengar84

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I was thinking the same thing, actually.

With that, to everyone here, if only one of them can get into the next Smash Bros., (and that is most likely) which character would you all prefer to be playable? Noah or Mio?
I’d prefer Mio between the two. I liked both as characters but preferred Mio overall. She also has a more unique weapon and moveset, which helps. I did take into consideration that we probably won’t get another transform duo next time since they just did that, so that’s why I like the Ouroboros idea. It lets you represent both characters with a single moveset. It’s a pretty unique opportunity to do that and the Ouroboros have such cool and unique designs (other than their resemblance to Ceruledge).
 

DemifiendEnjoyer

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Honestly I wouldn't mind if they skipped out on a Xenoblade 3 character.
Fire Emblem getting new reps for the newest game eventualyl ended up annoying people, I feel like Xenoblade could turn out the same way.

Edit: Actually, They could easily go for Kos-Mos and I think that would be the coolest thing to do.
 
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BritishGuy54

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I was thinking the same thing, actually.

With that, to everyone here, if only one of them can get into the next Smash Bros., (and that is most likely) which character would you all prefer to be playable? Noah or Mio?
I think I’ll go with Noah.

His sword is an iconic piece of the game, and it isn’t just a basic sword. It can unsheath to increase its power.

This factor didn’t matter when deciding between Rex and Pyra, because both did wield the main sword of the game. But here, Noah’s weapon is only useable by himself, so there’s that.

I also think going with Noah could future-proof a clone/echo, that being N, if development resources get strained.
Honestly I wouldn't mind if they skipped out on a Xenoblade 3 character.
Fire Emblem getting new reps for the newest game eventualyl ended up annoying people, I feel like Xenoblade could turn out the same way.
Eh, I think people would be okay with Xenoblade. It’s only on two characters at this point. A third makes more sense.

And this is assuming that Shulk and Pythra will be the main recurring faces in Smash, as some faces get swapped in and out, such as swapping Noah out later for the XC4/XC5 protagonist.

Everyone was annoyed with Fire Emblem because…
  1. They were all swordfighters
  2. Many were very similar, in design and playstyle
  3. Everyone is Here, meant… Everyone was there. Yes, even the Fire Emblem characters.
 

The Stoopid Unikorn

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Honestly I wouldn't mind if they skipped out on a Xenoblade 3 character.
Fire Emblem getting new reps for the newest game eventualyl ended up annoying people, I feel like Xenoblade could turn out the same way.
Technically, we never got any Xenoblade X fighter :4pacman:

But you're forgetting the point that makes people annoyed with Fire Emblem; they all use swords. Even Sakurai himself is annoyed by this and tried to make Corrin and Byleth more unique than just "sword fighter" to make them stand out... only for them to be by far the most hated additions in Smash history.

Robin could also be another example but it's not explicitly confirmed that he picked Robin over Chrom due to "too many swordfighters", only that Robin had a more interesting moveset potential. He also didn't end up being hated, being the last FE newcomer before people started to hate the franchise on sight.

If we get Noah, then we'll definitely get a pattern of "every Xenoblade character gets a laser sword" which might annoy some. But Mio is distinct enough with her rings that I don't think bringing her will make reactions as heated as with a Fire Emblem character.

There's also a big difference between a franchise getting their eighth character and another getting their third (technically fourth) which is another reason Fire Emblem gets such rabid reactions.
 
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Shinuto

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I liked Xenoblade 3 so I’ll be happy to see them in Smash. They’re not my top most wanted Xenoblade characters but I do still like both of them. One thing I think would be interesting and help them stand out from Pyra/Mythra’s transform gimmick is to make their Ouroboros fusion form the playable character and have them fuse as a stage intro animation.


Z has a really cool design. I’d gladly take either him or Moebius D&J as the series’ first playable villain.
ourobouros just seems like a cop out since it doesn't represent them truly. It seems ultimately detached desire literally being a fusion of them. To give an example imagine we got super sonic instead of Sonic. Ourobouros should not be the main fighter, maybe a gimmick transformation in their moveset but not the sole fighter.
 

DemifiendEnjoyer

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ourobouros just seems like a cop out since it doesn't represent them truly. It seems ultimately detached desire literally being a fusion of them. To give an example imagine we got super sonic instead of Sonic. Ourobouros should not be the main fighter, maybe a gimmick transformation in their moveset but not the sole fighter.
I mean, Noah and Mio would be relatively niche choices anyways, I think they could get away with it.
Definitely not Sonic though.
 

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I wonder how many 2020s characters there will be in Smash 6.
For some reason i can't think of that many 2020s reps that could join, does anyone here have a list of potential '20s reps?
On the Nintendo side of things, this is as fairly extensive a list as I can come up with. This is not at all a statement of likelihood, but just a list of characters who debuted for each series since January 1, 2020.

Super Mario: Prince Florian, Talking Flower, Olivia, Bobby the Bob-omb, King Olly
Legend of Zelda: Age of Calamity version of Impa, Tears of the Kingdom version of Rauru and Ganondorf
Metroid: Raven Beak, EMMIs
Kirby: Elfilin, Leongar, Clawroline, Fecto Forgo
Pokémon: Any Pokémon or human character who debuted in the Isle of Armor or later (some standouts(?) include Urshifu, Calyrex, the Hisuian versions of Decidueye, Typhlosion, and Samurott, Hisuian Zoroark, Ursaluna, Meowscarada, Skeledirge, Quaquaval, Tinkaton, Armarouge, Ceruledge, Gholdengo, Koraidon, Miraidon, Ogerpon, Terapagos, and Pecharunt)
Fire Emblem: Any character that debuted in the 2020 portion of Heroes Book 4 or later (notably Reginn, Ash, Seiðr, and Ratatoskr), any character in the Cindered Shadows expansion for Three Houses (Yuri, Constance, Hapi, Balthus, and Aelfric), any characters who debuted in Three Hopes (Shez, Arval, our first physical depiction of Holst, Shahid, etc), any characters from Engage (notably Alear, Veyle, Alfred, Céline, Diamant, Alcryst, Ivy, Hortensia, Timerra, and Fogado)
Pikmin: Oatchi, Moss, Shepherd, Collin, Russ, Dingo, Yonny, Bernard, Pikmin 4 Protagonist
Animal Crossing: Wilbur, Orville, C.J., Flick, Wardell, Niko, Daisy Mae, Captain Gullivarrr, Raymond
Xenoblade Chronicles: Any character who debuted in either Future Connected (Kino, Nene), Xenoblade Chronicles 3 (Noah, Mio, Eunie, Lanz, Sena, Taion), or Future Redeemed (Matthew, A, Nikol, Glimmer, the older versions of Shulk and Rex, etc)
Splatoon: Shiver, Frye, Big Man, Smallfry
Wii Sports: ...Sportsmates

Other: Horace Showpony (Everybody 1-2 Switch)

The New 20s have been slow for characters from non-Smash IP.

For third parties the list is significantly more extensive.
 
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Garteam

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Here’s one of the guidelines, as follows:

“Companies must not specifically target advertising for entertainment software products rated “Teen,” “Mature,” or “Adults Only” to consumers for whom the product is not rated as appropriate.”
This would explain why M-rated franchises can be referenced in game but not DLC presentations. Including content from such franchises is just a reference and Nintendo can be open about the game of origin. Once you put that content in a commercial for Smash, it ventures into advertising and we get "Featuring Dante from the Dante series".

The funniest implication of this rule is that Nintendo might be unable to reference Melee and Brawl in any directs for the next Smash.
 

Gengar84

Smash Hero
Joined
Dec 9, 2009
Messages
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ourobouros just seems like a cop out since it doesn't represent them truly. It seems ultimately detached desire literally being a fusion of them. To give an example imagine we got super sonic instead of Sonic. Ourobouros should not be the main fighter, maybe a gimmick transformation in their moveset but not the sole fighter.
How does the Ouroboros not represent them when that was literally their whole thing? It’s what makes Xenoblade 3 stand out from all the other Xenoblade games and they were the first in the party to unlock their fusion form. It was also a pretty huge basis for the story of the game.

In my opinion, Noah alone, while a good protagonist in Xenoblade, would be pretty unexciting as a Smash character. He’d be yet another sword wielding protagonist with several similarities to Shulk. Mio would be better and have a unique moveset but I don’t think that’s quite as cool as having the two together in one form.
 
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Shinuto

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Shinuto
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How does the Ouroboros not represent them when that was literally their whole thing? It’s what makes Xenoblade 3 stand out from all the other Xenoblade games and they were the first in the party to unlock their fusion form. Noah alone, while a good character in Xenoblade, would be pretty boring as a Smash character in my opinion. He’d be yet another sword wielding protagonist with several similarities to Shulk. Mio would be better and have a unique moveset but I don’t think that’s quite as cool as having the two together in one form.
Because people would want to play as them not their ourobouros fusion, at least not at the cost of not being to play as the components of said fusion.
 

fogbadge

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On the Nintendo side of things, this is as fairly extensive a list as I can come up with. This is not at all a statement of likelihood, but just a list of characters who debuted for each series since January 1, 2020.

Super Mario: Prince Florian, Talking Flower, Olivia, Bobby the Bob-omb, King Olly
Legend of Zelda: Age of Calamity version of Impa, Tears of the Kingdom version of Rauru and Ganondorf
Metroid: Raven Beak, EMMIs
Kirby: Elfilin, Leongar, Clawroline, Fecto Forgo
Pokémon: Any Pokémon or human character who debuted in the Isle of Armor or later (some standouts(?) include Urshifu, Calyrex, the Hisuian versions of Decidueye, Typhlosion, and Samurott, Hisuian Zoroark, Ursaluna, Meowscarada, Skeledirge, Quaquaval, Tinkaton, Armarouge, Ceruledge, Gholdengo, Koraidon, Miraidon, Ogerpon, Terapagos, and Pecharunt)
Fire Emblem: Any character that debuted in the 2020 portion of Heroes Book 4 or later (notably Reginn, Ash, Seiðr, and Ratatoskr), any character in the Cindered Shadows expansion for Three Houses (Yuri, Constance, Hapi, Balthus, and Aelfric), any characters who debuted in Three Hopes (Shez, Arval, our first physical depiction of Holst, Shahid, etc), any characters from Engage (notably Alear, Veyle, Alfred, Céline, Diamant, Alcryst, Ivy, Hortensia, Timerra, and Fogado)
Pikmin: Oatchi, Moss, Shepherd, Collin, Russ, Dingo, Yonnie, Bernard, Pikmin 4 Protagonist
Animal Crossing: Wilbur, Orville, C.J., Flick, Wardell, Niko, Daisy Mae, Captain Gullivarrr, Raymond
Xenoblade Chronicles: Any character who debuted in either Future Connected (Kino, Nene), Xenoblade Chronicles 3 (Noah, Mio, Eunie, Lanz, Sena, Taion), or Future Redeemed (Matthew, A, Nikol, Glimmer, the older versions of Shulk and Rex, etc)
Splatoon: Shiver, Frye, Big Man, Smallfry
Wii Sports: ...Sportsmates

Other: Horace Showpony (Everybody 1-2 Switch)

The New 20s have been slow for characters from non-Smash IP.

For third parties the list is significantly more extensive.
hang on are you suggesting that a talking flower from wonder could be a fighter? i'm not as against the idea as i thought i'd be
 
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