First of all: Zelda not having a new character since Brawl is more of an issue of timing than anything else. After Wind Waker (Toon Link) and Twilight Princess (which every Zelda character was updated to represent), the only major Zelda releases in between Brawl and the beginning of Smash 4's development were Spirit Tracks and Skyward Sword. Both got a ton of content in in Smash 4 despite neither selling well for Zelda. Girahim still was highly requested as a fighter and even made it as an assist Trophy.
It's not timing that kept Ghirahim out, it's the exact situation Raven Beak is in now. Being a one-off b-tier in a bigger series. Timing was actually very much on Ghirahim's side, that game came out in 2011, 4's roster was chosen in 2012.
But between the two, the series that is going to break that barrier first is Zelda. Because Zelda not selling well, like SS, is still better than Metroid at its best. Even if the timing nor the options line up for Zelda, and that series gets no one new, Metroid is just not currently at the level where a one-off stands any real chance. And it's not like either of these series
have to get new characters. Again, look at Zelda.
But Zelda doesn't even have to be part of the equation for why Metroid won't get Raven Beak at this point in time.
Ultimate started development while BotW was also IN DEVELOPMENT. There was basically no chance for them to gauge what characters would have been popular or made for good inclusions. Link was still updated to match his BotW appearance and the game got a stage. I fully expect the next smash game to give BotW and TotK the kind of representation that Ocarina and Majora's Mask got in Melee.
I mean, Melee gave Zelda four new characters, all of which were based on OoT/MM, two of whom were exclusive to those games.
That in and of itself seems a lofty expectation for how Smash 6 will treat BotW/TotK.
I don't see why you're so dead set on this idea that Raven Beak is an impossibility because other bigger franchises have deserving characters too. You do realize that each new smash game adds like 15 new characters, right? I'm not against Zelda getting even 2-3 new characters in the next smash game given how massive BotW and TotK were. Animal Crossing, Splatoon, and Kirby should absolutely get new characters too. Hell, even Pikmin could get a new rep.
That's not why I don't think Raven Beak has a good chance. That's why your arguments are fallible. Because they all apply better to other options. Because there's no reasoning laid out that actually favors Raven Beak over a different choice.
Why I think Raven Beak doesn't have a good chance is because he's a one-off villain in a b-tier series who lacks the demand to get included. Compounded by Metroid already being sufficiently and recently represented, decreasing priority for more.
Yes, Dread can be represented without a fighter. That's what I expect actually. That still doesn't rule out Raven Beak from being considered or even making it as a fighter.
But it doesn't inherently give him a good chance either.
ZSS is about as One-off of a character as Raven Beak and has nearly an entirely smash original move-set.
Well unless you're suggesting Raven Beak is going to show up tacked on to someone else, he's not getting in that way anyway.
Sheik is also a one-off, but Sheik didn't get in through normal means, which is the route Raven Beak would have to take. I'm excluding characters who leveraged routes ineligible to Raven Beak, as they're inapplicable as faithful parallels.
If Raven Beak would be part of a transformation, or could be a clone, or fit as the token surprise character, or had overwhelming demand, or Metroid got promotional reps, it'd be a different story. But he has to get in the normal way.
Dark Samus the character is meaningful represenation. Dark Samus In Smash isn't really. She's just a clone of samus. Which is kind of fitting, but Samus' moveset in Smash doesn't take much from Metroid Prime to begin with.
Yeah ideally she wouldn't be a clone, but the character is still there. Dark Samus is still there.
A lot of the characters you listed here don't fit other criteria you listed though. It's silly to say that "any positive he has, another option eclipses him" when making comparisons in this way. All I'm saying is he has a decent chance given the timing and success of Dread.
All of the characters I listed fit the criteria I listed. Any character I listed is either more generally popular, more requested, has a bigger recurring role in their series, is a series protagonist, is from a rotational/promotion series, or got in through means not available to Raven Beak.
I know you're saying he has a decent chance, I'm saying I disagree with that. I think his chances are pretty remote. At least until he recurs.