I'm going to do something a bit more unusual for myself in that I'll try to analyze what I THINK will happen with the next Smash game.
- Based on what Sakurai said in one of his videos, I don't think Everyone Is Here is happening again. All the planets aligned for that to happen on Switch and it was a "Now or Never" thing.
- I think the base roster for the next game will be around 60-70 unique characters, not including Echo Fighters.
- Sakurai will definitely try to bring everyone back, but unlike Ultimate where getting all veterans back was the big priority, this time he will prioritize newcomers over veterans, which will lead to veterans getting cut in favor of newcomers.
- If a veteran character with an existing Echo Fighter gets cut, the Echo gets cut with them. If the veteran stays, the Echo stays.
Going series by series now, and again, this is all my personal speculation. Don't take any of this as me forcing anything down anyone's throats. And fair warning, I talk about "priorities" a lot:
Mario: Mario, Luigi, Bowser and Peach (and by extension Daisy) are all safe IMO. Rosalina and Bowser Jr. are probably close but I don't want to ensure it. Doc and Plant are at the bottom of the priority list, and I think Sakurai will prioritize at least one newcomer (either Captain Toad or Waluigi) over them.
Donkey Kong: This one's tough. I think Sakurai will prioritize the three veterans over a potential newcomer (99% likely to be Dixie), but I doubt Dixie will be prioritized over K. Rool.
Legend of Zelda: What a weird spot this series is in. For being one of Nintendo's most iconic series it's hard to believe they haven't had a newcomer since Brawl, and one that isn't Link since Melee. The trio of Link/Zelda/Ganondorf is definitely safe. Sheik could stay due to seniority, but I doubt we'll get both Toon and Young Link back. We might get a newcomer over Young Link, which could be some version of Impa. But it seems that with every Smash game there's people clamoring for the hot NPC character in the last Zelda game, which in the end we never get. Hope we do this time around.
Kirby: Sakurai will 100% bring his three babies back but no newcomer will be prioritized over them. Since Kirby is Sakurai's own series, whether Bandana Dee or Magolor or Marx or whoever potential newcomer happens will be entirely up to Sakurai and if he's in the mood to do so.
Warioware: Wario's safe. Nothing has really changed regarding this series since pre-Ultimate, so I don't think a newcomer here is a big priority in the grand scheme of things. Ashley has a legit shot due to popularity. Maaayyybe Mona. But anyone else from this series is probably too much of a reach.
Pokemon: The only series with a guaranteed newcomer spot based on Sakurai's own words. Pikachu is safe because DUH. I could see Charizard getting solo priority again in order to make room for the newcomer by cutting Squirtle and Ivysaur. Jigglypuff would probably have priority over Mewtwo but Sakurai would definitely try to bring both back. As for the non-Gen 1 Pokemon I could see being something like Lucario > Greninja > Incineroar > Pichu, although none will be prioritized over the newcomer (which could go to Gen 9 or 10 depending on timing).
Metroid: I don't think anything is changing here. Samus and Dark Samus are safe and ZSS and Ridley are likely high priority. I doubt we'll get a newcomer though.
Star Fox: Fox is safe. Falco maybe. Wolf could make it or not depending of dev time, as Sakurai had no issues cutting him once. I doubt we'll get a newcomer from this series given it hasn't seen much action lately.
Yoshi: Yoshi's safe. That's it. I doubt there's anything else happening with this series.
Kid Icarus: Same as Metroid, Pit and Dark Pit are safe and Palutena is high on the priority list. As much as I love Viridi and Hades I doubt we'll get a newcomer though.
Fire Emblem: Hoo boy. Where to begin? First thing first, Marth, and by extension Lucina, are safe. But that's it. None of the other FE veterans, all SIX of them, are in a position where I can say "Yeah, this character is definitely coming back". I feel that, when you account the reception of previous FE characters in past Smash games, FE veterans are going to be prioritized pretty low in the grand Smash roster, so FE will end with the most cut characters. If I had to predict, I think we will end with 4 cuts, so the FE base roster will be Marth, Lucina, plus two of Ike/Roy/Chrom/Robin/Corrin/Byleth... and a newcomer. Yes, I think we're still getting a FE newcomer in the next Smash, not because "it's what always happens" but mainly to make up for the massive Exodus of characters the series will likely get. The newcomer could be Alear, or Lyn or Celica or Seliph or the next FE MC or whoever. But I think a FE newcomer in the next Smash is happening. Also I want Alear with a taunt where they pet Sommie. Don't take that away from me.
F-Zero: Cap's safe. Probably no newcomer in the works, but as I said earlier I'd like to see Jody Summer as an Echo.
Earthbound: Ness' safe. Who knows with Lucas as he wasn't high priority back in Smash 4. I doubt we'll get a newcomer outside of maybe Ninten as a Ness Echo, but even that feels like a longshot.
Animal Crossing: Villager's safe. Isabelle probably as well. If we get a newcomer, I could see it being Tom Nook, but he's not being prioritized over the two veterans.
Splatoon: Inkling is 100% safe. I definitely feel we're getting a newcomer here with a semi-cloned Octoling. Given the series' success I can definitely see a newcomer being high priority.
ARMS: Min Min is probably staying due to the series sole rep. Not sure if a newcomer is happening unless ARMS 2 is in the works. My personal pick for a newcomer would be Twintelle, but who knows what'll happen.
And then there's all the series with a single rep, which include:
- Mr. Game and Watch
- ROB
- Duck Hunt
- Ice Climbers
- Little Mac
- Wii Fit Trainer
I think Sakurai will try to bring all of these characters back due to being their sole reps of their respective series with no much room for newcomers. Not sure in which order he will prioritize them, but they feel like this little group of characters that stick around together.
Oh, and the Miis. Yeah, I think those are safe. Although I'd like to see a couple of new variants to add to the potential representation, like Mii Dancer or Magician.
As for 1st Party series not yet repped, Ring Fit Trainee from Ring Fit Adventures feels like the only newcomer with a solid shot. I guess there's Astral Chain but I'm not sure how popular that one is. Every other series has been MIA for the Switch generation. Well, there's Another Code/Trace Memory, but I doubt that one.
Not talking about 3rd parties because there are way too many factors involved in those, making them very hard to predict or put in a priority list. Although I will say that personally, I think the legendary trio of Sonic, Mega Man and Pac-Man should be Smash mainstays.