Official Newcomer/DLC Speculation Discussion

[SMAASH! Puppy]

As far as the Zelda characters go I think...

• Demise and Impa are echo material, though I'd wager most people would be lukewarm on Demise.
• Girahim creeps me out too much...That and I think he'd be a pretty basic sword character in terms of gameplay.
• I don't know enough about Tetra to have an opinion on her, though I think detractors will try to lump her in with the sword characters even though she has a tiny butter knife like Joker.
• Wolf Link & Midna would be a cool, though fairly basic, character.
• Tingle is probably a wtf character waiting to happen at some point. Bonus points if he counts as a representative of the Tingle's Rosy Rupeeland series instead of The Legend of Zelda series.
• Ganon would be interesting to see as a big powerhouse character with huge disjoints and projectiles. Maybe he could be the first traditional heavy to actually be competitively viable.
• The Skull Kid would probably be the most interesting character, though I struggle to think of a moveset for him since he never fights you directly.
• The Moblin is obviously the most slept on Zelda rep. I mean, Sakurai decided to put Link in the game three times, but not his most common enemy? For shame!

 

[Exiliify]

What about Ruto?

 

[Idon]

• Girahim creeps me out too much...That and I think he'd be a pretty basic sword character in terms of gameplay.

If you incorporate his flamboyant personality and sword summoning, he could be pretty unique probably.

I don't know enough about Tetra to have an opinion on her, though I think detractors will try to lump her in with the sword characters even though she has a tiny butter knife like Joker.

Also a gun like Joker, though in her case it's more of a old-school piratey blunderbuss.

Wolf Link & Midna would be a cool, though fairly basic, character.

I'm curious as to what you mean by "basic." As far as I know, a rider character like that hasn't been attempted, at least, not in the way Midna and Wolf Link might work. Even compared to Duck Hunt, Duck Hunt's also a weird character themselves.

What about Ruto?

Not interested much either.
Outside of her fun moveset in Hyrule Warriors, I don't have much of a personal connection for her.

 

[SMAASH! Puppy]

What about Ruto?

Was that the Zoro chick? I completely forgot about her. Mostly because I've never played Ocarina of Time. I don't really have an opinion on her or Darunia.

If you incorporate his flamboyant personality and sword summoning, he could be pretty unique probably.

He might make an interesting punish based character. I'd still rather not see that tongue flick with any more frequency though. The handfull of times I saw it was plenty.

I'm curious as to what you mean by "basic." As far as I know, a rider character like that hasn't been attempted, at least, not in the way Midna and Wolf Link might work. Even compared to Duck Hunt, Duck Hunt's also a weird character themselves.

When I say a character would be basic I mean I don't forsee it being reliant on a gimmick such as Cloud's Limit Break or Inkling's ink mechanic. This usually doesn't mean I think the character in question would be boring however...Perhaps I should use the word straightforward instead.

 

[GoodGrief741]

Looking back at the ratings people gave Reimu in the daily rate "this character" thread gave her little chance, only a few actually gave her good chances. Still seems like many are ignoring her though

There's plenty of reasons to give Reimu a low score even taking into account the points in favor. Do you think Reimu is an easy sell as DLC to a mass audience?

 

[Idon]

There's plenty of reasons to give Reimu a low score even taking into account the points in favor. Do you think Reimu is an easy sell as DLC to a mass audience?

Yeah, I'm on the Reimu support list.

Doooooooooesn't mean I think she's up there in terms of priority for either Sakurai or Nintendo though.

 

[ZagarTulip]

Since I see a convo about Zelda characters I will share my Top 5 most wanted Zelda Characters:

• Mipha
• Marin
• Vaati
• Ravio
• Groose

Feel free to comment on my ideas

 

[Exiliify]

There's plenty of reasons to give Reimu a low score even taking into account the points in favor. Do you think Reimu is an easy sell as DLC to a mass audience?

Mass audience doesn't matter, seems like any character can be considered for DLC. If mass audience was a concern then Lucas wouldn't there, Joker wouldn't be there, neither would be Simon or Richter. I already stated the actual facts about why Reimu should be higher on the list of priority, whether you agree with that is on you not me or anyone else that supports Reimu.

Reasons are only valid to the person stating their reasoning, only thing others can do is agree or disagree. I consider pretty much their reasoning why she has a low rating invalid is because i know a lot more about Touhou than most of them do.

 

[Idon]

Mass audience doesn't matter, seems like any character can be considered for DLC. If mass audience was a concern then Lucas wouldn't there, Joker wouldn't be there, neither would be Simon or Richter. I already stated the actual facts about why Reimu should be higher on the list of priority, whether you agree with that is on you not me or anyone else that supports Reimu.

Lucas was relevant for the time Brawl came out, Joker is currently Atlus's entire cashcow selling multiple copies and a game Sakurai has played and enjoyed, and Castlevania is as historic to both Nintendo history and gaming as a whole as Metroid is. They've all got reasoning one way or another.

While Touhou does have a long line of games spanning decades, is older than most games, and is a cult classic that's managed to spawn an infinite amount of fan-work across the globe, it just doesn't seem like something Nintendo would have interest in as a company looking to make profit due to it being primarily a Japanese 3rd party indie whose official mainline games don't release on official consoles nor officially worldwide.

 

[Exiliify]

While Touhou does have a long line of games spanning decades, is older than most games, and is a cult classic that's managed to spawn an infinite amount of fan-work across the globe, it just doesn't seem like something Nintendo would have interest in as a company looking to make profit due to it being primarily a Japanese 3rd party indie whose official games don't release on official consoles nor officially worldwide.

False. Touhou games have been released on Steam, PS4 and the Switch both official and fangames

Lucas was relevant for the time Brawl came out, Joker is currently Atlus's entire cashcow selling multiple copies and a game Sakurai has played and enjoyed, and Castlevania is as historic to both Nintendo history and gaming as a whole as Metroid is. They've all got reasoning one way or another.

I was referring to global audience around the world. Apparently Lucas was japanese exclusive at the time brawl came out, same with Marth and Roy when Melee was released.

 

[TheCJBrine]

Skull Kid and Tingle would be my most wanted as far as Zelda newcomers go.

I'd also like Lizalfos, Stalfos, Dinolfos, Pig Ganon, and if they could somehow make them work, Saria and Malon / Cremia / Romani. I'd probably like other characters as well.

I kinda like Midna but don't really care about her much, I'd probably care more if I actually finished Twilight Princess. I don't have the game, though; my parents just rented the Wii version for me when I was 11-12...at least, I think it was rented...

I was referring to global audience around the world. Apparently Lucas was japanese exclusive at the time brawl came out, same with Marth and Roy when Melee was released.

To be fair, Sakurai thought Mother 3 would get a Western release, I think, which is why he only came back in Smash 4 as DLC (likely fan-demand); and from what I remember reading, people wanted them to keep FE in the Western release for Melee...though I guess they could've just decided to keep them in so both releases would match, I just remember something about them originally planning to make them Japan-exclusives and people in the West wanting them...

 

[Idon]

False. Touhou games have been released on Steam, PS4 and the Switch both official and fangames

yeah, I know, but not the main ones, the bullet hells.

As far as I know only Touhou 16 has released on Steam, and it's not even translated to any other language but Japanese. Otherwise, you're fighting bizarre spinoff games that don't reflect main touhou gameplay. With games like that spreading purely through word-of-mouth, the potential profit for someone like that seems less than, say, shovel knight or whatever.

 

[Exiliify]

yeah, I know, but not the main ones, the bullet hells.

As far as I know only Touhou 17 has released on Steam, and it's not even translated to any other language but Japanese. Otherwise, you're fighting bizarre spinoff games that don't reflect main touhou gameplay. With games like that spreading purely through word-of-mouth, the potential profit for someone like that seems less than, say, shovel knight or whatever.

Once again your judging based of assumptions, stop. Do your research next time before stating stuff like this. Multiple official games are on Steam now. Switch is getting AoCF the latest fighting game and the fan games there have done well.

The potential profit is larger than you think

 

[Verde Coeden Scalesworth]

yeah, I know, but not the main ones, the bullet hells.

As far as I know only Touhou 17 has released on Steam, and it's not even translated to any other language but Japanese. Otherwise, you're fighting bizarre spinoff games that don't reflect main touhou gameplay. With games like that spreading purely through word-of-mouth, the potential profit for someone like that seems less than, say, shovel knight or whatever.

Has it been officially stated that the bullet hells are the only ones consider the "core" games, with the rest being spin-offs? I'm just wondering about that.

 

[Exiliify]

Has it been officially stated that the bullet hells are the only ones consider the "core" games, with the rest being spin-offs? I'm just wondering about that.

Bullet hells and Fighting games are official. Rest are fan made games, except for a couple official games where neither bullet hell or fighting games are the focus.

 

[Verde Coeden Scalesworth]

Bullet hells and Fighting games are official. Rest are fan made games

I'd like a citing of this, please.

 

[Exiliify]

I'd like a citing of this, please.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Touhou_Project

https://en.touhouwiki.net/wiki/Touhou_Wiki

Both sources list the official games in order of release

 

[Idon]

Bullet hells and Fighting games are official. Rest are fan made games, except for a couple official games where neither bullet hell or fighting games are the focus.

They're official as in they're canon, but they aren't made by ZUN and don't reflect Touhou's primary gameplay.

Besides that, 15.5 and 16 aren't even translated into English on Steam and none of the bullet hells are even on either Nintnendo or Playstation consoles. You can't argue that gives it much more mass appeal

 

[Exiliify]

They're official as in they're canon, but they aren't made by ZUN and don't reflect Touhou's primary gameplay.

Besides that, 15.5 and 16 aren't even translated into English on Steam and none of the bullet hells are even on either Nintnendo or Playstation consoles. You can't argue that gives it much more mass appeal

So what? that doesn't matter, people can download the english patches off the internet anyways. The fighting games were made by ZUN in conjunction with Twilight Frontier. ZUN plays a part in the fighting games development. So what if they aren't bullet hells? that still doesn't mean anything. What it does mean is that is very easy for move sets to be made for Touhou characters if Sakurai does decide to put them into Smash

Stop putting out misinformation about things you're just assuming based on your knowledge.

Besides that, 15.5 and 16 aren't even translated into English on Steam and none of the bullet hells are even on either Nintnendo or Playstation consoles. You can't argue that gives it much more mass appeal

Yes i can argue that. Doesn't matter if its fighting or bullet hells, who cares about mass appeal. Touhou is already massively popular enough for consideration into smash, we have stated that multiple times already. Mass appeal comes from the fact its Touhou, last i checked Touhou is everywhere on the internet. Most popular category on Danbooru, huge amounts of fan art on Pixiv. People that play games on the internet have most likely heard of Touhou at some point

If you support Reimu. then actually show it rather than combat over stuff like this, because honestly it sounds like you're against Reimu at the moment

 

[GoodGrief741]

Mass audience doesn't matter, seems like any character can be considered for DLC. If mass audience was a concern then Lucas wouldn't there, Joker wouldn't be there, neither would be Simon or Richter. I already stated the actual facts about why Reimu should be higher on the list of priority, whether you agree with that is on you not me or anyone else that supports Reimu.

Reasons are only valid to the person stating their reasoning, only thing others can do is agree or disagree. I consider pretty much their reasoning why she has a low rating invalid is because i know a lot more about Touhou than most of them do.

Lucas has mass appeal to the Smash fandom because he's a Smash veteran. Joker has mass appeal because his game was critically acclaimed and financially very successful. Beyond the fact that the Belmonts were base roster and thus don't need to sell by themselves, yes, Castlevania absolutely has mass appeal.

To sell DLC, you either need to sell to the existing audience, or you need the character to be a big enough draw that a large audience buys into the product.

So either Touhou needs to sell to the existing Smash audience, or the Touhou fandom needs to be big enough and hardcore enough to make them buy into Smash. Which one do you think it is?

 

[Exiliify]

Lucas has mass appeal to the Smash fandom because he's a Smash veteran. Joker has mass appeal because his game was critically acclaimed and financially very successful. Beyond the fact that the Belmonts were base roster and thus don't need to sell by themselves, yes, Castlevania absolutely has mass appeal.

To sell DLC, you either need to sell to the existing audience, or you need the character to be a big enough draw that a large audience buys into the product.

So either Touhou needs to sell to the existing Smash audience, or the Touhou fandom needs to be big enough and hardcore enough to make them buy into Smash. Which one do you think it is?

Lucas has never been released outside of Japan when brawl came out, Marth and Roy weren't released outside of Japan when Melee came out. The mass appeal comes from how massively popular it is in Japan and the internet as well. Touhou has more mass appeal in Japan alone just for Sakurai to consider putting into Smash as DLC.

Touhou's mass appeal is large enough in Japan alone to make the rest of world not matter. Very few games have the legacy and history as Touhou does and the cultural impact. The Fandom is pretty hardcore already with the amount fan works and the dedication they have creating them. All of the newcomers are said to be characters we wouldn't expect, there is a high chance that Touhou may be selected based on this alone.

Stop trying to claim that Touhou doesn't have any chances, actual facts about Touhou have been multiple times by me and Noble. Its your choice to believe it, if you believe Touhou has a low chance then its your opinion, state your reason why then leave it be. If you want to continue a discussion then stop trying to combat my points directly.

 

[Verde Coeden Scalesworth]

For DLC, lacking worldwide appeal is a rather big deal in itself. 3rd party DLC has so far always been a worldwide thing. Nobody is an unknown among a single main region of the three. It's very difficult to believe this will change.

Touhou is amazing and all, but it doesn't have worldwide appeal. This makes it iffy that it could come for DLC. Having good sales in one region isn't enough. They need sales worldwide, since Smash itself is selling worldwide. That's where it matters. One that is a bit more popular in Japan/US/UK is fine. Bayonetta is most popular in the UK after all, but she was easily sellable worldwide despite not remotely being a gaming icon. That's what made her work.

Overall, if they choose a character that isn't guaranteed to sell in every region, they're taking a risk. When it comes to 3rd parties, they take a bigger risk by pouring major amounts of money into that character's licensing alone. This means they have to be sure the risk is worth it. Some risks they may take. But some they won't. Touhou could go either way, but there's a pretty fair reason to believe it won't be Smash DLC here. It not being known worldwide is a huge factor to remember. It's not even niche worldwide, unlike Persona, which means it still is known enough to easily sell.

 

[Ayumi Tachibana]

Erdrick and Reimu, who's more known worldwide?

 

[Verde Coeden Scalesworth]

Erdrick and Reimu, who's more known worldwide?

Neither. They're both very obscure outside of Japan. Maybe slightly on Reimu's case, thanks to a few more translations, I guess?

 

[Exiliify]

For DLC, lacking worldwide appeal is a rather big deal in itself. 3rd party DLC has so far always been a worldwide thing. Nobody is an unknown among a single main region of the three. It's very difficult to believe this will change.

Touhou is amazing and all, but it doesn't have worldwide appeal. This makes it iffy that it could come for DLC. Having good sales in one region isn't enough. They need sales worldwide, since Smash itself is selling worldwide. That's where it matters. One that is a bit more popular in Japan/US/UK is fine. Bayonetta is most popular in the UK after all, but she was easily sellable worldwide despite not remotely being a gaming icon. That's what made her work.

Overall, if they choose a character that isn't guaranteed to sell in every region, they're taking a risk. When it comes to 3rd parties, they take a bigger risk by pouring major amounts of money into that character's licensing alone. This means they have to be sure the risk is worth it. Some risks they may take. But some they won't. Touhou could go either way, but there's a pretty fair reason to believe it won't be Smash DLC here. It not being known worldwide is a huge factor to remember. It's not even niche worldwide, unlike Persona, which means it still is known enough to easily sell.

Touhou is known worldwide, the only problem was the way people had to get the games in the first place. AoCF an official fighting game is being released on switch don't know when. The fangames on the switch have done well, Touhou already has a large fandom outside of Japan. The only exposure outside of Japan people have had is through the internet. Touhou is popular enough to some extent where its possible to be included in DLC.

Erdrick and Reimu, who's more known worldwide?

Reimu, Dragon Quest is mainly well known in Japan for being the father of RPGs to some degree, similar to Touhou being a massive icon and cultural phenomenon

 

[Koopaul]

Erdrick is obscure in the West but Dragon Quest is not. Dragon Quest may not be a popular series in the West but it is still known. People probably recognize it. I can't say the same for Touhou.

 

[Exiliify]

Erdrick is obscure in the West but Dragon Quest is not. Dragon Quest may not be a popular series in the West but it is still known. People probably recognize it. I can't say the same for Touhou.

Both are obscure to some extent, i know Touhou has a large following in the west already. Dragon Quest may have one as well, i am certain touhou is larger though

Many gamers in the west most likely have heard of Touhou at some point mainly through music. One issue Touhou faces especially in the US, is the stereotype anything that looks anime is anime especially if its from Japan

 

[Verde Coeden Scalesworth]

Touhou is known worldwide, the only problem was the way people had to get the games in the first place. AoCF an official fighting game is being released on switch don't know when. The fangames on the switch have done well, Touhou already has a large fandom outside of Japan. The only exposure outside of Japan people have had is through the internet. Touhou is popular enough to some extent where its possible to be included in DLC.

Touhou is not very known worldwide as you're making it. It's pretty obscure. Not niche, but obscure.

This is a pretty big blow against its chances. It has a way better chance for a base roster character because they don't need individual sales. Most surprise and retro characters are also base, with PP being the sole exception so far, and it was also a bonus and appeared to have been intended for base at one point. Being a bonus was intentional so some didn't have to pay for it at the start.

Both are obscure to some extent, i know Touhou has a large following in the west already.

Personal anecdotes are not honestly useful. Like, I know Touhou moreso due to image sites, namely Japanese-pandering image sites, not because of some "apparent" huge following in the west. How do you know it's this big? You're going to need some evidence here, beyond some personal anecdotes, if you want to convince people it's as big as you say it is.

 

[Exiliify]

Touhou is not very known worldwide as you're making it. It's pretty obscure. Not niche, but obscure.

This is a pretty big blow against its chances. It has a way better chance for a base roster character because they don't need individual sales. Most surprise and retro characters are also base, with PP being the sole exception so far, and it was also a bonus and appeared to have been intended for base at one point. Being a bonus was intentional so some didn't have to pay for it at the start.


Personal anecdotes are not honestly useful. Like, I know Touhou moreso due to image sites, namely Japanese-pandering image sites, not because of some "apparent" huge following in the west. How do you know it's this big? You're going to need some evidence here, beyond some personal anecdotes, if you want to convince people it's as big as you say it is.

i don't see you doing the same either, you claim its not known worldwide but you haven't stated anything that's convincing otherwise either. Touhou is already known in all three regions for their dedicated fan base for translating fan made material and fan made content. You will most likely find fans at anime conventions since Otaku and Doujin communities tend to overlap. If you have been on the the sites like you said then you should be already aware how popular Touhou is. I will try to see if i can dig information and evidence if possible however it will take time.

Exact numbers may be impossible, however its also difficult for people in the west to grasp something that never have seen with their own eyes. Just because you don't see Touhou everywhere in the west like it is in East Asia doesn't mean those large fandoms exist.

I can say this for certain due to the popular on the internet and Touhou with how many fanworks exist, they are everywhere

 

[Verde Coeden Scalesworth]

i don't see you doing the same either, you claim its not known worldwide but you haven't stated anything that's convincing otherwise either. Touhou is already known in all three regions for their dedicated fan base for translating fan made material and fan made content. You will most likely find fans at anime conventions since Otaku and Doujin communities tend to overlap. If you have been on the the sites like you said then you should be already aware how popular Touhou is. I will try to see if i can dig information and evidence if possible.

Exact numbers may be impossible, however its also difficult for people in the west to grasp something that never have seen with their own eyes. Just because you don't see Touhou everywhere in the west like it is in East Asia doesn't mean those large fandoms exist.

Let's make it noted that you have made huge claims over and over again. Now the thing is, you might notice how people already agree with me. That means I just need to convince you. However, it's clear I'm doing a poor job at that so I won't continue to try.

That said, people are not convinced by you at all, so they're going to expect you to back up your claims if you're not willing to admit you might be a bit off. That's something that's inevitable. Of course, as usual, I'll enforce rules due to things that could happen. For instance, if you get dogpiled, it's pretty easy to ask for a merge(or report your own post). I might be around long enough to merge them without issue. If any posts break the forum rules, then they can be reported, and I or another moderator can take appropriate action. I know it sounds a bit weird to suddenly say this, but I've seen issues happen before. So it's more meant to help you as some friendly moderator tips.

 

[Exiliify]

Let's make it noted that you have made huge claims over and over again. Now the thing is, you might notice how people already agree with me. That means I just need to convince you. However, it's clear I'm doing a poor job at that so I won't continue to try.

That said, people are not convinced by you at all, so they're going to expect you to back up your claims if you're not willing to admit you might be a bit off. That's something that's inevitable. Of course, as usual, I'll enforce rules due to things that could happen. For instance, if you get dogpiled, it's pretty easy to ask for a merge(or report your own post). I might be around long enough to merge them without issue. If any posts break the forum rules, then they can be reported, and I or another moderator can take appropriate action. I know it sounds a bit weird to suddenly say this, but I've seen issues happen before. So it's more meant to help you as some friendly moderator tips.

Others in the same thread agree with me as well, just because more people agree with you doesn't make you anymore correct than i am. Like i said i will try to provide information if possible. Another question if i do provide info how do i know you will actually believe me and not think i faked it?

Perhaps you and others here could do research as well. Then some "claims" i have made will be clearer that i know what i am talking about. Plus i have told people if they want to believe me its on them not me.

 

[GoodGrief741]

Stop trying to claim that Touhou doesn't have any chances

I never did, you're trying to make me into a strawman. I'm only explaining why, despite Touhou's very good pros, people still don't think it's likely. The reality is you live in a bubble, and Touhou Is far more niche than you seem to realize.

If you want to continue a discussion then stop trying to combat my points directly.

Combatting your points directly is what a discussion is.

By the way, you never answered my question.

 

[Exiliify]

I never did, you're trying to make me into a strawman. I'm only explaining why, despite Touhou's very good pros, people still don't think it's likely. The reality is you live in a bubble, and Touhou Is far more niche than you seem to realize.

Combatting your points directly is what a discussion is.

By the way, you never answered my question.

Are you sure know how niche Touhou is? Just because you think its niche doesn't prove anything. I already did answer your question. I would appreciate if you just leave it be i respect your opinion but you don't seem to respect mine

 

[osby]

Please keep the discussion civil. Discuss other users' arguments, not their personality.

 

[Exiliify]

Please keep the discussion civil. Discuss other users' arguments, not their personality.

I understand that i am doing what i can to help keep it civil

 

[Koopaul]

I suppose sales statistics might help. Perhaps Google search results and trends.

We need some kind of impirical data to know the state of Touhou in the West.

 

[Exiliify]

Currently working on it, I will say that it’s difficult to precisely measure how popular Touhou is worldwide because of the internet. Due to numerous fan works that exist and how easy it is to find them, I can still argue that it’s fairly popular worldwide even without all of the facts. Reminder that even I were to provide it, some of you probably will think I faked it

 

[AEMehr]

I'd feel inclined to argue that the Dragon Quest IP is definitely the bigger powerhouse compared to Touhou based on sales numbers alone.
It doesn't necessarily matter how niche either's representative is in the west, the brand name for Dragon Quest still means something to more of the general consumer than the Touhou Project does.

That doesn't mean a character can't happen, anything is possible if there is enough demand behind it. I just think comparing the two is a bit grossly underestimating how big the Dragon Quest IP is in comparison. In this situation, a Dragon Quest character is kinda like Mega Man, Sonic, or PAC-MA. Whereas a character from Touhou would be similar to that of Bayonetta or Joker, someone that is definitely popular, but not with the same legacy behind them as the characters mentioned before. I mean if it means anything, I think Reimu would be the best character from the indie scene next to Shovel Knight (the character that is literally in the game already in some form). Not my choice, but a real good fit nonetheless. I'm a Cave Story guy myself.

 

[Nquoid]

I suppose sales statistics might help. Perhaps Google search results and trends.

We need some kind of impirical data to know the state of Touhou in the West.

Just based off of VGChartz, Touhou has only sold about 0.3 million copies worldwide, but that doesn't include an awful lot of games and only really counts console releases.

Dragon Quest on the other hand has sold 78 million copies (https://press.na.square-enix.com/releases/1390/square-enix-announces-pax-east-2019-lineup-and-events ) and Dragon Quest XI selling 3.9 million copies across both 3DS and PS4.

Obviously not conclusive, but there's also the urban myth than the Japanese government based a law saying that Dragon Quest games weren't allowed to launch on weekdays for fear of impacting productivity.

 

[Iko MattOrr]

Saying that a character is unlikely is not the same as being against that character.
For example, Captain Syrup from Warioland is one of my most wanted characters and I definitely support her, though I'm aware that her chances are 0,000001% and I'm totally expecting her to NOT be in.

In Touhou's case, I think Reimu's chance is bigger, maybe around 15%/20%, but still a bit low, not because of popularity, but due to the series being too much hardcore (aside of difficulty, also because you need some base knonledge about the Japanese traditional culture in order to understand the series, something that not everybody has, and you most likely need to do research for that; for example, very few people here know what a miko is as far as I know, and with here I mean all the occidental countries).

The same reason why that Dombe & Hikari or that Goku & Chao games never got content in smash aside of a trophy/spirit, and they are rarely referenced in other Nintendo games too (with their references occasionally being removed in the occidental version of the game, such as what happend with Kirby's Dream Land 2).