Newbie Mafia 12 FMP Fumoffu!: Game over!

[ranmaru]

Soren is correct. We solely cannot rely on outside meta for TBS, and we must also judge TBS's in-game actions. Kuzi can you illustrate to us why TBS is town to you in accordance to his outside-townplay?

 

[Blacknight99923]

Ran whats meta mean?

 

[ranmaru]

Meta is the history of how a person usually plays based on their playstyle.

Basically, like a history of mafia habits. If you see joe smasher posting actively alot, and you play with him again, you notice he generally does that through all his games. Then, if you see he doesn't do that in his third game, you'll feel he is OFF with his play and you'll want to know why he changed.

"I know HOW he plays, so he's most likely town for doing THAT here"

We shouldn't rely on meta, but it shouldn't be neglected entirely. Just try to look at peoples actions from in-game, and not rely on what they have done in other games.

 

[Blacknight99923]

I appreciate your detailed response.

But yes I really do agree with Ran. I really don't want to just give you the benefit of the doubt for no reason Kuz, and I don't think anyone here does either.

 

[th3kuzinator]

Soren is correct. We solely cannot rely on outside meta for TBS, and we must also judge TBS's in-game actions. Kuzi can you illustrate to us why TBS is town to you in accordance to his outside-townplay?

1202, broski

How do you feel about JTB claiming?

 

[Blacknight99923]

I'll start off by posting what has been running through my head these past few days. I'll lay out my entire though process now, just for you.

I have done extensive thinking over the past week or so about this game and here is what I have come up with after 3 re-reads.

[collapse=Town Reads]1. X1 (IC)
2. Kuz (IC)
3. Ranmaru (SE)
4. TheBlueSpot
5. JTB
6. Fynal
7. Seikend
8. Gatlin UTDZac
9. Soupamario
10. Blacknight99923 (Soren)
11. asianaussie

First, let me start with my town list. This is the town list that I gathered after my change of heart and I am sticking by it.

Kuz - For obvious reasons.

Ranmaru - Already stated to Seikend previously why his meta points hardcore town. Thought his play towards the end of D1 was a bit anti-town it certainly wasn't hardcore scummy and it was only made to look so by X1 explaining it through a bull**** filter.

TBS - I know him IRL and I know how he acts and how he formulates writing. He enjoys making his sentences flowery almost to the point where the become redundant but he does this in an attempt to seem witty. Sometimes it works, sometimes not. All throughout this game he has posted like I assumed he would as town I he honestly is just trying to look intelligent. You know what is scummy, though? X1 immediately saw this type of posting and tried to redirect town into getting TBS lynched D1 as the easy target. Weirdness of the interaction started here where I ask X1 what vibe he gets from TBS's post. He responds with this and then this.

Let me highlight something from the second post.



First, X1 tries to get away with being neutral on TBS by saying that his posts give him a "yuk" or and "eurk" feeling, not a "scummy" feeling. He makes a point of saying that it does not look noobtown or noobscum.

However, he goes on right to say in the next sentence that



Hey X1, I can find contradictions too. Despite him previously stating that TBS gives him a "Ranmaru type null feeling" he admits he wants him lynched for that. X1 more than anyone else should know that the way Ranmaru types is anti-town but not scummy. Yes, there is a clear difference. Yet he tries to get away with pushing him for those weak-*** reasons.

Now lets look at 727, which X1 calls the most reaching thing since Mr. Elastic.



TBS proposes an idea (poorly constructed, but hes a newbie) that JTB tried to subliminally give the newbie a chance to replace in before lynching him. X1 calls this super duper reaching, but its blatantly obvious thats not the case. The bolded section clearly shows that TBS even acknowledges its a weak indicator and that he has largely skimmed most of what he is talking about. Wishy-washy, certainly. But reaching this clearly is not. It is wishy washy because TBS is noobtown and this is the exact type of response that comes from someone who has not been trained to always take hard stances. Its quite clear TBS has had no outside help in learning the game and his reluctance to give a definitive stance is normal for newbies. However, when simply dismissed as a "yuk" leaning scum read from an IC, it could be interpreted in the opposite manner.

What X1 largely failed to mention in the post I asked him to analyze is summed up by myself



Yes, got a little off track, but this is showing key X1 opportunism in relation to noobtown TBS.

JTB - For one, X1 pushed JTB hard D1. I know X1 and I have played with X1 as his scum buddy. He rarely ever tries to bus players D1, he saves that for D2. For another JTB's responses come across as a townie who simply is not that interested in taking initiative and somewhat goes with the flow.

This post is an example of what I am talking about. He would not have bothered to say this in thread had he been scummates with X1 and would have just asked him which wagon would be the most productive to follow. He is not aligned with X1, and I have a large scum read on X1. His question to me in thread about whether his posts look anything like the ones where he was scum in Dissidia don't remind me of something scum would say as well and I am taking this as a town tell.

Fynal - Fynal was a player I had to think about for a long while because I was largely unsure of his aligned for most of the game. He played well, almost too well, and came to many of the conclusions I came to without me spoonfeeding him which made me think he had some type of outside coaching from a scum mate. However, his pushes seem really genuine and he largely supports the stances he takes with reasoning. His stubborness to accept that Ranmaru was town after locking into him at the start of D2 despite me telling him that I was sure that Ranmaru was town shows me his conviction to think independently. His underlying suspicion of yours truly also sits well with me because following me has only led to a town lynch thus far and from a noobtown POV it is quite easy to see players being manipulated by scum ICs. His nonchalanteness with putting JTB as L-1 on D1 is also pretty townie as experienced scummates would prep their scumbuddies about the implications of doing this beforehand and I feel that his responses in his defense of being pressured at that time seemed genuinely frantic town. I made a note of this as soon as it happened.

Soupamario - This read should be pretty obvious from ANYONE who knows Soup meta. Looks exactly how he played in Dissidia because of the way he types and brainstorms. Scumsoup knows that whatever he is saying is bull**** and usually just sits on the sidelines posting stupid pictures in an attempt to look uninterested. As town, Soup is usually all over the place with his posts, creating long elaborate theories to catch scum. He has been doing that plenty this game, examples here and here.
[/collapse]This leaves

X1-12
Seikend
UTD
Soren
asianaussie

As possible scum. In a 13 man game, there will be three scum as that is the customary balancing number. Therefore 3 out of these 5 players are scum and this is our current lynch pool.

If you'll notice after my change of heart, every single post I have made is in an attempt to feel out these 5 players. From in depth question/grilling Seikend to seeing who would be okay with the aa lynch to asking which of UTD/Soren should go first (I even asked Seikend if he was a dayvig who he would shoot first). Each of these players all have their good points and they all have their bad points and I am still trying to figure out in my mind which 3 are scum. Obviously, I still have 2 big question marks on UTD and Soren due to inactivity, but I think I have been able to feel out the other three somewhat nicely. I will get to my thoughts on the 5 of them later, I want to respond to X1's bull**** first.

[collapse=Why X1's case is complete bull]

If X1 had re-read some like he claims he would have noticed that I am sure in my alignment switch of Ranmaru which is what I have been saying over and over again. X1 also tries to summarize my meta and assume I would never do what I just did as town which, if you knew my meta, is complete bull.

You want to know what the funniest part about this post is? I did the exact same thing in a previous game (change of heart mid Day) and X1 played up that townKuz would never do that and got me lynched for it. Surprise, X1 was scum in that game and I was town. X1 should know that I can and do do stuff like this as town and that fact that he says I wouldn't is a blatant lie. If you want to fact check me, the game was Bear and Fish 11 and it can be found here.

I'll even show you the post IN GAME where I said I had a change of heart.

http://www.smashboards.com/showpost.php?p=11917131&postcount=491

And from there X1 proceeded to ML me on the grounds that townKuz would never do that. This is the exact same scenario and he is trying to put me in the exact same situation. Thats why I called bull****, becuase its complete bull**** and he knows it.

But instead, X1 tries to evade this type of callout by posting this. Would townX1 really result to petty reasoning to further solidify his lynch target? No, he wouldn't. He did the same thing wrt to the Ran lynch on D1 when he told us that we should lynch Ranmaru first because he would probably have the weaker scum PR. X1 doesn't resort to bull reasoning like that as town and hes much more correctly aggro than this.



This is such bull I can't even stand it. Seikend's weak stance on Sword was RVS and you know it was RVS. His stance on Ran does not simply come down to Ranmaru being iffy with what he said, he largely attacks Ranmaru for being stubborn and not being able to see his wagon hopping reasoning for D1. As I said previously, while being attacked in such a fashion it may look like the attacker is being opportunistic which is what Seik was getting at. X1 just reachingly dismisses it all for the sake of his case, but thats not the truth in the slightest.



This contradiction is literally inconsequential. X1 should be able to differentiate between normal contradictions and scummy ones.



Bulllllllshait. Though it is true Seikend contradicts himself, this was because that between post 410 and 499 I had come in telling Seikend that the thing he voted fynal for was simply a noobtell. Seikend is getting at Ranmaru for dodging his question and answering it from a different angle, not that Ranmaru was being opportunistic wrt the Fynal wagon. Seikend clearly states multiple times throughout this game that he does not feel very adept at picking up legitimate scum reads and this is largely consistent with how he has played this game. When X1 takes it out of context like this, though, he can make anything look scummy. This combined with the recent X1 push on Seik makes me thing Seik is leaning town as well.

This leaves

X1
aa
Soren
UTD

Most likely 3 of those 4 are scum.



You're kidding me right? Since when did Seik avoid me D1? We spoke plenty during that Day and its cool and all that you bring up incorrect information to damn me but stuff like this does not help. Off the top of my head I remember talking to Seikend about how what Fynal did was just a nub tell and I remember specifically trying to convince him to join Sword's wagon.



Okay, I seriously started laughing. Could you possible try reaching any harder? Me lengthily grilling Seik, voting him, getting him to L-2 and trying to get him to take hard stances/get his stances before he dies is not committing to his wagon and trying not to appear connected? I mean with posts like this its pretty easy to see I don't want to draw any links to Seikend. More blatantly false information from our third IC.



Well your last two reasons were spot on correct, so this weaker part should only help your case right? If anything, this is the only true statement you've made your entire post. Believe it or not, but I actually did miss your question or I would have answered it as soon as I saw it.

All three of these reasons are reaching paragraphs trying to draw non existent scum ties between the two of us. He does not even bother to check his facts before posting.



Again, X1 knows I do this stuff as town and he witnessed it and MLd me in a previous game where I did it. No way he doesn't remember. X1 then tries to use some of his own scummeta to convict me...

Who. The. ****. Does. That?

This is what I did as scum and it worked therefore this is what Kuz would do as scum. I feel like Dark Horse in here but thats such a fallacy I can't even tell you.



lol.

I did this as scum, therefore when Kuz does it, it makes him scum. That in itself is WIFOM and again is a fallacy.

Just thought I'd bring this up, but this is how X1 responded to my same type of please when I was town in Bear and Fish.

http://www.smashboards.com/showpost.php?p=11920935&postcount=516

Which is exactly what he's doing now.



This is probably the stupidest thing I have seen this entire game. Literally. X1 over using the advice dogging **** over and over again. Funny thing is, I specifically DIDN'T play up being and IC all game and made it a point to actively contribute and scum hunt. Despite saying I am massively advice dogging he can only remember one instance on where I gave advice after RVS was over, which was during D1 twilight. Sorry X1, didn't know I couldn't practically make 1 advice post this entire game despite being an IC. X1 states numerous times that Ran should not be giving advice because the ICs will handle it and --> ICs handle it --> oh Kuz is advice dogging. [/collapse]Was going to save him for a later Day, but toDay is fine too.

Unvote; Vote: X1-12

As I said in my defeat of X1's case I am thinking more and more that Seikend is town from his interactions from X1.

This leaves the lynch pool tentatively at

Soren
UTD
X1
aa

I am fairly confident that X1 is scum along with AA and one of the inactives. I don't know which inactive yet due to the sheer lack of content, but I will figure it out soon and get back to you.

X1 is being lynched toDay. I have a really compelling argument as to why AA is scum along with X1 but I will save that for my next post as this one is huge already. You also notice how X1 steps in and "puts all his cards on the table" as soon as AA was about to be wagoned? While I was pressuring Seik and getting him to L-2 he was fine being inactive, but now that AA came under fire he came out of nowhere to deflect attention elsewhere. I can't wait to bring up the scummy as **** connections between AA and X1 later.

I implore you to read this whole thing and fact check everything I have said about X1's points being baseless. Almost everything he has said is either reaching, a contradiction or just plain wrong and it pains me that I had to fact check everything he said before responding to it.

part of post in quesetion should be highlighted

 

[Blacknight99923]

Its in the hide section of his quote

 

[Blacknight99923]

Ranmaru what are your thoughts on the 1202 post?

It gives me a slightly uneasy feeling.

 

[ranmaru]

@Kuz:

He should claim if he is at l-2 or l-1. Other than that, no go. Didn't we get AA to claim?

We already have X1's claim, possibly AA's claim, isn't that a little too much? Scum can figure out pr's from process of elimination.

What happened to x1/aa? Kuzi, if you intend to lynch one of those people, then I'd rather JTB claim toMmorow. That way scum don't know who else to pick off.

I support pressuring multiple people, but I don't support getting more than two people to claim, since it can give scum info we don't want them to have.

In fact, was JTB asked to claim D1?

 

[th3kuzinator]

Nope, he was put at L-1 on D1 but never ended up claiming.

 

[Blacknight99923]

Kuz could you please show us examples of TBS posts?

We'd all feel a lot better if we weren't throwing our trust into a dark hole

 

[th3kuzinator]

Do you really feel TBS is scummy enough to be a large pressure point toDay?

If so, tell me why you think so. Only think you have told me is that he is somewhat skimming, which isn't a scum-tell by itself. If not, just take my word for it and bring it up at a later date if you still have issue with it.

We only have 4 days left till the deadline. I don't want to get sidetracked.

@Ran: He's at L-3 currently. If someone put him lower you would support him claiming?

 

[ranmaru]

@Kuz:

Ok.

So, what do you think of what I said? Do you agree, or disagree?

@Soren:

I was going to ask kuzi that, good stuff. I agree that Kuz should present some examples.

Also explain how it gives you an uneasy feeling.

Nothing fishy jumping out at me. I'm so glad you pulled it up though, lol. I'm so tired. xD (Took benedryl)

 

[Blacknight99923]

Do you really feel TBS is scummy enough to be a large pressure point toDay?

If so, tell me why you think so. Only think you have told me is that he is somewhat skimming, which isn't a scum-tell by itself. If not, just take my word for it and bring it up at a later date if you still have issue with it.

We only have 4 days left till the deadline. I don't want to get sidetracked.

@Ran: He's at L-3 currently. If someone put him lower you would support him claiming?

Well...not by itself but......if he doesn't start posting I would like to bring it up at a later date.

 

[th3kuzinator]

Well...not by itself but......if he doesn't start posting I would like to bring it up at a later date.

That is fine. I'll address it later if its a huge concern but I want to use the next 4 days fruitfully, not defending a non-active town read.

 

[Blacknight99923]

@Kuz:

Ok.

So, what do you think of what I said? Do you agree, or disagree?

@Soren:

I was going to ask kuzi that, good stuff. I agree that Kuz should present some examples.

Also explain how it gives you an uneasy feeling.

Nothing fishy jumping out at me. I'm so glad you pulled it up though, lol. I'm so tired. xD (Took benedryl)

because i'm putting faith on something I don't know anything about

 

[ranmaru]

@Kuz:

Urr, I'm set for an X1 lynch, not a JTB lynch. So no. I have explained why we shouldn't be having too much claims toDay.

You said you were going back to an X1 lynch, so there is no need to make him claim if he isn't going to be lynched toDay. Pressure is fine, but pressure isn't used to make someone claim, Kuzi. It's to make the scumpects give info and stances.

 

[Blacknight99923]

That is fine. I'll address it later if its a huge concern but I want to use the next 4 days fruitfully, not defending a non-active town read.

I will hold you to this.

 

[ranmaru]

Hmmm, be specific Soren.

What in that post makes you feel uneasy, even though you don't know anything about it or something.

 

[th3kuzinator]

I will hold you to this.

Zzzzz sure whatever. Just don't just be stupid and go about lynching him if I ever die and am not there to defend him D:

 

[Blacknight99923]

Hmmm, be specific Soren.

What in that post makes you feel uneasy, even though you don't know anything about it or something.

that's precisely it. I don't know anything about his reasons to support him. He also doesn't want to explain it right now.

 

[th3kuzinator]

@Ranmaru: What do you think about me clearing AA? What is your current read on him?

 

[ranmaru]

True.

Kuzi, please give us some TBS quotes that show how you know he is townie according to his IRL town meta. Show us how you view TBS's meta.

Err, I dunno. When exactly did you clear AA? I need to check that. Quote plz? I was in class so I didn't really catch everything.

Null leaning scum, fence sitty, and a posting little. Not as scummy as X1 though.

 

[Blacknight99923]

Zzzzz sure whatever. Just don't just be stupid and go about lynching him if I ever die and am not there to defend him D:

Your telling me not to lynch him if you die, but you won't give me reasons?

This my friend. Makes me sad.

 

[th3kuzinator]

I have a reason, I think he's town.

I already said I didn't wanna waste time on him. And pretty much every post reminds me of how he writes things. I am not going to go digging for posts just to prove to you someone is town at this point. Find something you have a problem with and ask me about it. I am doing all the work here while you just sit around and speculate about his alignment due to inactivity.

 

[Blacknight99923]

My issue isn't really his inactivity, after all I was almost entirely inactive for most of the game, but rather the fact that you are so bent on this read without explaining to us.

 

[th3kuzinator]

So you think it worrisome that one of your town reads has a town read on another player and won't go out of his way to prove to you he is town?

You're getting away from the fact that you even think he is scummy and over-complicating a relationship.

 

[ranmaru]

Isn't that just playstyle, and not something based on finding alignment? Again, you think he is town from your IRL experiences with him. We have not played with him before, so we cannot know for ourselves if TBS is town due to your past interactions with him.

You shouldn't belittle our reads on him because we haven't played with him ourselves. You cannot expect us to believe he is town without concrete examples of his IRL town play.

 

[Blacknight99923]

So you think it worrisome that one of your town reads has a town read on another player and won't go out of his way to prove to you he is town?

You're getting away from the fact that you even think he is scummy and over-complicating a relationship.

http://www.smashboards.com/search.php?searchid=4449570

since you won't link me his posts, I've linked a search of all his posts.

I'll be looking at them, if I don't find anything scummy I'll let the matter drop.

 

[Blacknight99923]

He only has 25 posts this won't take long.

 

[Blacknight99923]

My read on TBS is he's a new player, he's not sure what he's doing so he doesn't post. He's got his vote on seikend but he hasn't really said anything about X1 currently.

Very vague lol.
The only reason i would say he's town is because statistically there's more of us.

But I really would like TBS to post more.


@TBS
what are you current scum picks, and why?

 

[asianaussie]

@AA: New scumpicks and general musings now that you realize you overhighlighted my case. Is Seikend still scum?

This will be my only post for at least another half day. I might read a little though, dunno.

Town: Ran, Soup, kuz
Probably town: Fynal, JTB, Soren
Neutral (not really null): X1, UTD, TBS, Seikend
Scummish: ...nobody? Soren? UTD looks like a possibility merely because I have few neutral reads at all. Maybe even Soup, all he's done is pounce when he had to (ie. when kuz told him to), but everyone else is calling him town.

No real scumpicks yet, this may change as I re-read. Hear me out first.

Never believed Ran was scum, and as the game progressed nothing caused me to drastically rethink my views.

Soup is town, not much to see here. Hasn't actually done anything scummy, done some scumhunting.

Kuz is 99% town, he could just be fooling us all, but I sincerely doubt it.

Fynal hasn't been scummy, he just seems to know a bunch...maybe he reads a lot of old mafias? Dunno.

Nothing much more on JTB, Soren is grilling him, but I don't think he's doing very much. All he's doing is looking for everything he can jump on, then jumping on it, hard. I'm defaulting to my leaning-town view from D1.

Soren is ridiculously opportunistic to the point where I'm dismissing it as part of his play. He has come back and done nothing but scumhunt with a super-aggressive approach. His unwillingness to do his own research isn't sitting well with me (this may just be laziness, but the ridiculous number of posts he decided to multiquote suggests he has the time and at least some dedication). His absurd amount of 'evidence' of scumhunting included a lot of other peoples' posts...why is that? How were they relevant? Couldn't he have just said page this to this or something like that (he didn't know about the post number format, but even so, he could have just referenced the discussion in words). He is overzealous in attack, yet rather lacking sometimes. A lot of points he tacks on for pressure purposes, even if they aren't strong and won't get any useful information. I'm unsure of what he's trying to accomplish by latching onto people and pestering them, and he is attacking in a way that assumes someone is scum before he even attempts to determine alignment.

That is what moved my read of him as town to leaning town, though I wouldn't call him scum, not at all. A lot of things he does are empty and give me nothing on his alignment (in the post directly above this his 'read' on TBS doesn't even concern town/scum, just his definition of a newbie in a newbie game), so he's null leaning town. If he disappears for a period directly after this post, I'm going to be rather interested in his reasoning.

X1 still doesn't seem scummy to me, he's just been forced to defend relatively meh contradictions, which you can't do without more contradictions. The fact that there were contradictions is the main factor that stops me calling town. His discussion of Seikend in particular sticks in my mind as a little bit reaching. His flip told me nothing. My view changed from leaning town to neutral, though I'm not voting him just yet.

UTD and TBS have no content to analyse. I could go with kuz and call TBS town, but in the 1% chance event that kuz is scum, TBS could be his scumbuddy and I wouldn't know where to turn.

Seikend...I'm honestly not sure. I had a scummish read on him at some point, but that slowly died away. I had thought of the possibility of kuz and Seikend being scumbuddies, as seikend did not address kuz's alignment significantly (there was some 'Seikend asking kuz responding' going on though) and there were no alignment links between them for a long while (until X1 pushed the possibility forward, unless you can prove me wrong). At this point I thought kuz's case wasn't quite as solid as I now think it is. I thought he could have just been defending Seikend, but once I re-read the relevant bits I found that he didn't defend Seikend unnecessarily and instead just went on X1. I also found Seikend's posts a lot more coherent the second time around.

With the link cut and my reevaluation of kuz in general, I don't have any real reason to call Seikend scum. He's scumhunted, he's played logically - the one questionable act is going for X1 over me when he thought I was more scummy, but I suppose he did have reasoning behind it.

This does not yet mean I'll never have scumpicks - it's just been a rather confusing day, and most of what I've written is from my shaky memory. I'll read the day again tomorrow morning (it's like 10pm and I still have notes to make and follow-up physio early tomorrow morning). I also have to read D1 again, it's rather hazy. For now I've got nothing. Maybe as the day progresses I'll pick up a scumpick. I'm not one for blindly voting or getting on wagons until I can see why I should vote/get on the wagon, that's all. I'm stubborn like that.

inb4 soren calling lack of scumpicks a definite scumtell and ignoring the reasoning for every one of my reads

@ Soup, what are your opinions on Seikend, JTB and myself? Who do you want lynched toDay?

@ Soren, who do you want killed (no limit to number of people you want killed)? Please answer the question explicitly, don't sidestep it in any way, as you are proud of not doing.

@ UTD & TBS, general musings, scumpicks, town-reads, things that stand out to you as questionable, anything. Opinions on Soren are good.

 

[th3kuzinator]

@AA: Did you realize UTD replaced out?

 

[th3kuzinator]

@Seikend: Thoughts on JTB. Should he claim toDay?

 

[Seikend]

I think JTB is town, wouldn't support a lynch or claim.

His actions were fairly scummy back at X1/Kuz, yes. His response and defence so far has been perfectly fine.

 

[th3kuzinator]

Okay. What do you think about Tery?

 

[Seikend]

Fairly null, but if I had to say, Town.

Willingness to "take the bullet" having just replaced in looks pretty town to me.

 

[th3kuzinator]

Do you find anyone else besides X1 scummy?

 

[th3kuzinator]

Vote: X1-12

I want Tery to give us a stances list before the end of the Day.

It has been so long and full of content I think we can end it now. I need a flip to solidify some things in my mind. We are mass claiming first thing toMorrow.

 

[Seikend]

AA and X1.