As a wolf main, I wanna say the matchup is in Mario's favor. Id like to say 55-45 but i refuse to believe it can be any more than 6-4.
im more than annoyed by Mario's ability to fill the screen with fireballs and convert into big damage or at least crazy good stage position. I like to use laser set ups and shield pressure (nair shine, dair shine)... but im having trouble with the neutral game.
Mario's fireball is very good, travels at a great speed. does great damage, and deals enough hitstun to let players do just about anything else. The angle that it travels controls a lot of space. If a wolf is silly enough to try and reflector the fireballs, you can punish him in his "reflector lag". Wolf cant easily weave in and out of danger like a Fox or shiek can.
Wolf's laser is amazing though. its slow, but does GREAT hitstun so it gives the player false options, that they tend to pick right away. Shield, move away, throw fireballs back (they colide), etc. but it makes the opponent either **** or get off the pot. However, it still doesnt give as much advantage as fireballs, but shouldnt be taken lightly if a wolf is wavelanding his lasers.
Mario is floaty, and that is ANNOYING. if ur being combo'd you can just throw out a nair and it'll probably hit. Even better, Wolf is a spacie so you can up throw him and combo him as much as you please. Wolf IS a bit heavier than Fox and Falco, so keep that in mind. If you slip and lend him a couple frames you'll get shined, and depending on your damage you can get confirmed into a wolf flash set up.
Theoritically speaking, Mario can Usmash (or up b) OoS if theres holes in wolf's shield pressure, WHICH THERE IS USUALLY because unless he's multishining you for ten seconds straight or doesnt drop a single nair shine, you'll have a little air to breath.
I think Good stages for wolf are bigger stages in this MU, where he has room to move around all mario's fireballs. I like Dreamland64, Smashville, Yoshi's Brawl a lot. I can manage on FD and Yoshis story. I'd rather Stadium 2 than battlefield. Mario has Jesus levels of recovery though so Id strike Warioware, GHZ, FoD, any small stages with walls for UpB jumping and high ceilings.
thats my humble opinion. hopefully we can discuss something off of this to help me and others understand this matchup more. Im starting to pick up a pocket mario for dittos, but its not nearly as rewarding. Thanks for reading