BluePikmin11
Akko is my dear daughter!
To be frank with you, I should have finished writing my Smash Ultimate thoughts a long time ago. Due to classes taking my time away and my procrastination, I ended up delaying my thoughts too many times. I must apologize for keeping you guys waiting. I know the Smash community likely has moved on from speculation for good (or temporarily due to the lack of newcomer Fighter Pass announcements), but I still want to share these thoughts with you, mostly to close off my personal journey as a Smash speculator for good. I will finally share my thoughts on Smash Ultimate’s newcomers, base game speculation, and the potential future for the series. Thank you for waiting patiently.
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On November 1st 2018, the Smash Ultimate speculation community faced the biggest twist in Smash history when Sakurai presented the final Smash Ultimate direct. 90% of the Smash fan base were convinced by the Grinch leak a few weeks prior, due to the large amount of “evidence” and events going on around the time that made the leak convincing to most. At the time, I immediately considered the Grinch leak to be fake because of the lack of a Pokémon newcomer and how blatantly obvious the leak was catering towards Smash fans that primarily wanted fan-popular characters. The newcomers in the leak felt like the most un-Sakurai decisions to me, considering the previous Smash games’ newcomers were a mix of popular and Sakurai’s personal choices.
In the midst of the chaos, I had confidently committed to my 10+ unique newcomer predictions I made back in July 2018 due to me miraculously maintaining my unique newcomer prediction streak. An hour before the Smash Direct aired, I felt unusually confident that Sakurai was going to deliver. It was a feeling that Sakurai was going to bring more than the expected Ken and Incineroar. There were numerous possible newcomer scenarios I thought could happen in the direct that excited me, ranging a barrage of Japanese gaming icons being revealed to getting 5+ newcomers that did not match the Grinch leak’s unrealistic choices for unique newcomers. All of these scenarios were positively stimulating to think about, but I kept expectations low.
Would my in-depth newcomer research pay off? Would my time spent on Ultimate speculation end up being a disaster? The emotional combination of uncertainty of truth and positive expectations grew as the direct was closer to airing. As I watched the direct, my eyes paid close attention to every single detail. After the early point of learning that Ken and Incineroar were the last two newcomers, I could not help but laugh, being shocked at the same time that Source Gaming’s box theory happened. At that point, the only things I wanted to know to were execution of the game’s features and modes and who would be disconfirmed as Assist Trophies.
After that direct, I could not help but laugh again, expressing my brief thoughts on social media in a knee-jerkingly way, saying that I would quit speculation for good after seeing the things in the direct that turned my perspective of DLC newcomer speculation into a complete 180º. So many things regarding speculation came into my mind, clashing with the empathetic thoughts of many fanbases of newcomers I thought had a real chance like Shadow and Skull Kid, clashing with my thoughts on other things like Spirits Mode and lack of trophies, and clashing with my thoughts on how Sakurai handled the fueling of speculation from beginning to end, The only things I could enjoy left were the memes that spawned from the direct on Twitter. I felt that my knowledge on Nintendo and speculation had been wasted. The issues I had was so much, that trying to write my thoughts on Smash Ultimate overall while not being a terrible mood was a very difficult task for a while, until now that is.
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Thoughts on Smash Ultimate Game Modes and Other Content
Before I get into the meat of this thread, I want to briefly go over the content I liked and disliked. I do not have much to delve into with likes though. In terms of modes, the single player modes in particular are pretty lacking. The only single-player mode that was satisfying to play every time was Classic Mode because of the nice variety in challenges and the quick pacing of completing each character’s campaign. I did not bat an eye on the rest of the modes. Except for Spirits, which is overall a very disappointing feature of Ultimate.
At first, I kind of liked the idea of Spirits because it allowed most of Nintendo’s niche IPs to be represented. But the more Spirit of Light and Spirit Board I played to grind for all the spirits, the more of a chore it became. The rewarding feeling of obtaining spirits started to wear down on me near the 1000+ mark. As much as I can admire Sakurai’s effort of implementing somewhat interesting gameplay mechanics/variety of each Spirit, getting spirits became more of an “mobile-game-like” addiction more than an enjoyable time. At that point, it felt like I was just collecting art of Nintendo characters that I have already seen as a hardcore Nintendo fan.
Spirits could have easily been better had Ultimate’s budget been larger to make a few adjustments. At least, Spirits should have had descriptions so that players that obtain them can learn a bit more about the origins to invite players into exploring other Nintendo IPs. Spirits should have at least been original models of characters akin to the likes of Melee’s retro character trophies so that they would have some sort of value in collecting. Heck, if Sakurai were to really make Spirits as a concept work, the staff could have gone a little farther and made animated models of every spirit. I would have preferred that scenario the most, even if it meant sacrificing some representation of obscure Nintendo IPs in the process.
Spirits generally feel like a shallow way to represent everything in Nintendo history. Spirits feel like a quantity over quality problem. Trophies should have just returned. Trophies have become engraved into Smash’s unique identity for past three Smash games, and it is saddening that they had to be replaced with a feature with far less depth. Even with the issues I have with Spirits, should a new Smash game come, I would like to see Spirits revisited and revised. But, I feel it is likely going to be a concept Sakurai moves away from with regret like Subspace Emissary.
As for other content I liked, the only things that sparked my interest was Lip getting a special nod by Sakurai with the Mii costume. As someone that closely participated in the Lip support thread and speculated Lip as Ultimate’s retro newcomer, I found the Mii costume to be dope. I use the Mii costume often in online matches when I get the chance. The other Mii costumes from niche IPs like Golden Sun and Chibi Robo were dope too. Playing as Mii Fighters now is a lot more fun and inviting now with the niche Mii costumes. The only disappointing thing about Mii costumes is that there is no Mii costume for Prince Sable, which I would have loved (though it probably would not have happened due to low ballot demand I bet).
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My Thoughts on Smash Ultimate’s Newcomers
How do I feel about the newcomers that Smash Ultimate’s base game provided now that time has passed? I will finally give those thoughts out now, starting from Ridley to the most recent Joker. I will go over the character speculation wise and go over a bit how I feel about each gameplay wise.
Inklings: I had predicted Inklings in a hypothetical Smash Switch game prior to the reveal Inklings in Smash Switch in March 2018. Based on the huge success of the IP and their potential as fighters, it was pretty obvious to me in 2016 that they would get in. The number of merits they have as a newcomer was so massive, that it would have been shocking to not see them in a new Smash sequel. There is not much to say about Inklings beyond that, speculation-wise.
Playing as Inklings is weird. Gameplay-wise, it is bizarre to play as Inklings in a 2D plane, when I am used to playing as Inkling with the buttery-smooth 3D controls of the original Splatoon. I got used to it eventually though. As strange as it sounds, I do not play as much of Inklings online heavily because of that. Not being able to dive in ink I splatted and move swiftly inside the ink for defense is a huge disappointment. I feel Sakurai could have something to make Inklings more faithful, while having the diving ink movement mechanic present. As for the character’s moveset itself, it is fine and I do not have much to say about, though I generally find the Splat Bomb to be pretty slow in start-up. That special move could definitely use a buff.
Ridley: I began predicting Ridley the moment Vergeben posted a rumor of Simon and Ridley being playable characters, days prior to more insider sources coming to side with Vergeben’s sources. This was a very risky prediction to me, because of the controversial Ridley debates that happened for the past three Smash games. I used have a firm negative stance on Ridley back in the Smash 4 speculation days. I was as skeptical of the 2018 Ridley rumors as most of the fan base back then before Verge posted his rumor. As soon as Verge posted his rumor though, I contemplated on my thoughts on Ridley and quickly concluded that predicting Ridley was worth it based on Sakurai’s past decisions of changing his mind on newcomers. Now would have been the best time to predict the space dragon before predicting him near E3 would feel like a bandwagon prediction with the potential increasing credibility of frequent Ridley rumors, I thought. I managed to get Ridley correctly, and it felt rewarding to see a risk come through, though I had said I would not get bragging points for the risk. I was pretty happy to see the Ridley fan base go wild towards the reveal.
As for my thoughts on playing Ridley, he is ok. He has some neat killing options all around his moveset, but I find the start-up in some moves and overall movement to be too slow for my personal liking. He is not a fighter that I have fun playing as, as fun as other heavies as Bowser and King Dedede. I would be playing Ridley online heavily, had he not been the first and only character I unlocked Elite Smash with. I am afraid that I will lose Elite Smash mode if I play as Ridley again online. I might try playing as him offline more to master the character and find fun combos and mix-ups.
Daisy: This character threw me off. Before her reveal, I concluded my thoughts that Daisy would not get in due to her lack of importance in mainline Mario games after Super Mario Land. I predicted that there was going to be one semi-clone newcomer, veteran, and one near-clone akin to Dark Pit. A “Wolf, Jigglypuff, and Toon Link” of Brawl in a sense, but with a near clone as the third instead.
When Daisy was revealed at E3 2018, the main criteria for near clones (now called echoes) begun to change for me. I thought if her significance to the Mario series was not a detriment in echo decisions, then the criteria for echoes must be very loose. I opened up to other possibilities, thinking about the possibility of third-party echoes like Shadow, since his Assist Trophy disappearance in Ultimate’s E3 2018 demo was missing. In terms of fan reception, I was most glad to see memoryman3’s wish come true since Daisy was the last thing I expected from Sakurai, though that user quickly transitioned to complain about Daisy’s clone status right after.
Gameplay-wise, I think Daisy is a pretty dope inclusion. I do not like the play-styles of Peach and Daisy personally, but when I am in the mood to play as either, I go with Daisy because of her tomboyish personality. I do not have many thoughts on Daisy beyond that.
Simon Belmont: Like Ridley, I began predicting Simon as soon as Verge posted his rumor on GameFaqs. I had a neutral stance on Simon prior to the rumor because of the company Konami being **** towards their employees and Kojima. I thought this would change Sakurai morally to not add Snake and other Konami newcomers, even when I knew Masahiro Sakurai had close memories growing up with the franchise. It turns out this was not the case, which I assumed when the Vergeben rumor came. I took the early risk to predict him because Sakurai possibly changing his mind. As a result of Simon, I also predicted Snake right after.
It was sort of a dramatic ride maintaining my prediction of Simon up to the August Direct, because some Smash fans were debating about Simon not being in, even after Snake’s reveal in the Everyone is Here trailer that made Simon an easy prediction to make at that point. This skepticism was understandable to an extent due to Verge’s mixed record of correct rumors. I saw Simon supporters losing hope as the negative environment around the character grew. When his reveal came, I was pretty happy. Like Ridley though, I said to myself I would not get bragging points for being wrong about Simon prior to the Verge rumor. It was so disappointing to see the reactions outside of the support thread, because the most popular reaction videos I saw were people who seem to hardly care about Castlevania (Outside of Somecallmejohnny’s reaction).
Looking back, I should have realized back then ultimately Sakurai wanting to bring veterans back would be the ultimate reason Sakurai would willingly negotiate with Konami for their characters. Even then, I still think that there still may have been a moral dilemma. Transitioning to the gameplay of Simon, I will clarify more on that with the next newcomer.
Richter Belmont: This echo threw me off-guard. I knew a bit about Richter’s game with Somecallmejohnny’s review on Rondo of Blood prior to the reveal, but the idea of him as an echo fighter was never thought of. I was mostly thinking about popular echo choices like Octolings and Shadow prior to the reveal that Richter was never brought up in the Smash speculation community as a real possibility. I had realized after Richter’s reveal that the criteria for echoes were absolute loose. The possibility of a large number of new echo fighters came into mind for me because of the ease of development and Sakurai possibly catering to as many fans as possible with these kinds of characters. My prediction ended up being not true, with Smash Ultimate’s echo count being lower than expected. Richter Belmont’s inclusion definitely shows Sakurai’s love (and bias) for Castlevania. I like to think when Sakurai decided to add Richter, he was like “To hell with it, I will feed my ego and do what I want!”
I personally prefer playing Richter over Simon due to his personality. His brave look compared to Simon’s rather grim expression made me choose to play Richter. I kind of liked playing as Simon when I got him in World of Light. But after I beat the story campaign to unlock all characters, I started playing Richter more. After playing as Richter online multiple times, his play-style is now embodied to my spirit and soul.
It is fun to play as Richter when I am playing mix-ups aggressively on an opponent. Sometimes, it is a bit of a struggle to play as Richter when playing against characters with quick priority attacks, but the challenge in winning those kinds of matches is so gratifying. I do not exactly main Richter, but I enjoy playing as him when I am in the mood to do so. Richter is one of my favorite characters to play as out of all Ultimate newcomers. Nowadays, I imagine an alternate universe where Richter was the big star of Castlevania and not Simon, because he is much cooler to me.
Chrom: I would have never predicted Chrom getting in as an echo fighter. I thought after Daisy’s reveal that even in the situation of echo fighter criteria were very loose, Sakurai would not add Chrom due to his feelings on Fire Emblem representation in his interview about Corrin. That interview is why I did not predict Lyndis and why I eventually stopped predicting Celica as a possible Fire Emblem semi-clone of Robin (Which was an idea I used to strongly believe in). Chrom’s reveal further cemented the idea that echo fighter rules were absolute absolutely loose, and that the echoes could be anyone.
Gameplay-wise, I used to not like playing against him online, because the matches I play against him tend to go for the same strategies and relying on the Up-Special for cheap kills. The Up-Special tactic is fixed in a latter game patch and makes playing against Chrom less frustrating. I remember when Smash Ultimate first came out, his addition felt very rushed in the first release, given the notable discrepancies I saw on social media like Chrom appearing in Robin’s Final Smash. The care Chrom got made me see the character negatively at first.
Nowadays, I enjoy playing as Chrom because of his absurd quick attacks, movement, and excellent aerial game. I find the character most fun to play when I use constant mix-ups, with a playstyle that it is not the typical Chrom online player. When I play as Chrom, it is kind of a fun game of “every attack matters, and if you miss an attack, you are wide open and prone to losing a stock quick by edgeguard.” I enjoy playing as him, more than Roy admittedly. Chrom is possibly one of my favorite echoes to play, as alongside my other echo main Dark Pit.
Dark Samus: Like Chrom, I would have never predicted Dark Samus either. Her not appearing in recent Metroid games made me doubt her (Just so you know, I thought the dormant Nintendo character logic applied only to unique Nintendo newcomers as a possible echo at the time). I did not think that the lack of her AT in the E3 2018 demo was an indication of her playable. I believe I said that after Ridley, that would be all the character representation Metroid got. Of course, I was wrong on that front. Looking back, I wish I was not so concerned about franchise representation to bet on echoes and betted on riskier echo choices instead of playing it safe with choices I had near confidence on.
As far as playing as Dark Samus goes, she is fun to play whenever I get the chance. I prefer Dark Samus over Samus aesthetically with her blue plasma attacks Beyond that, I do not have anything more to say about the character. I have not explored Samus and Dark Samus enough, neither am I so interested in practicing them at the current moment.
King K. Rool: This was one of the few Smash newcomers that I considered a risky bet prior to the reveal. King K. Rool was a very risky prediction to me because there were hardly any sources of Sakurai talking about the Donkey Kong Country games and Diddy inclusion in Brawl. Even when I researched the current situation with Rare and the team at Nintendo who were in charge of the Donkey Kong IP now, it went nowhere. There was hardly anything that made me feel sure about K. Rool, contrast to the confidence people had about the character primarily due to only the ballot and nothing else.
The main things that made me willing to predict King K. Rool was the Mii costume in Smash 4 and Sakurai’s statements about Geno when discussing his Mii costume. The latter was the biggest positive factor to me because it suggested that there could be a chance that Sakurai could make characters that were dormant in their respective franchises finally playable. Out of all of the dormant Nintendo characters, I felt more confident on Geno and Skull Kid, since there were more things that could’ve line up for their inclusion (In SK’s case, that was way before the Moon Assist reveal in the August Direct). Funny how things work, because King K. Rool ended up being the only old, dormant character that got in Ultimate’s base game. K. Rool’s reveal back then gave me further confidence that Skull Kid and Geno could also get in as a result, but that did not happen. I feel lucky that I managed to get K. Rool right.
Playing as this character is pretty fun. His aerials are surprisingly fast and satisfying to use (Back-Air and Down-Air are highlights). I like using his projectiles sometimes to mix things, usually the Crown Toss since it starts up faster. I wish his cannonball special move angled in more directions, but the strict angle is good enough in terms of unpredictability for me to be ok with it. I think K. Rool’s super armor belly makes the character too broken, even with the drawbacks of the shield being able to make K. Rool dizzy. The shield armor should only be in K. Rool’s counter special. Issues aside, I think K. Rool is one of the best heavies to play as. I personally play K. Rool online far more than Ultimate’s other unique newcomers.
Isabelle: Since the beginning of Smash Switch speculation, I had 99% confidence of Isabelle getting in. The heavy marketing and promotion that the character received since her debut in New Leaf (similar to Rosalina prior to her reveal in Smash 4), the large popularity she has worldwide, and the unconventional moveset potential she had akin to Villager and Wii Fit Trainer made me sure that she was going to be in. She had become a huge staple for the Animal Crossing franchise that I would have been shocked if Sakurai excluded her.
Although I was confident about Isabelle, it was a bit annoying to hear the arguments of Isabelle being too pacifist. At the time, I personally felt that Isabelle’s personality and characterization would non-issue for Sakurai. The speculation community’s idea that her fighting would go against the character was an extremely weak argument to me. I believed that Sakurai would be capable of integrating Isabelle’s personality in the little details in her moveset to make her work well in Smash. I also thought that Sakurai would be able to make a unique moveset for Isabelle, but she got the semi- clone treatment, which I have mixed feelings towards.
I personally think Isabelle could have easily gotten a unique moveset and stand out play-style distinct from Villager. I thought Sakurai would explore Isabelle to as much of a degree as Rosalina, exploring the core mechanics of New Leaf’s mayor gameplay mechanics to build a moveset out of, like how Sakurai utilized Super Mario Galaxy’s gameplay mechanics to create Rosalina’s moveset. But, it seemed like Isabelle was more suited to an echo fighter to Sakurai initially than anything else according to interviews, which, considering Sakurai’s level of creativity in making movesets, is very disappointing in my opinion.
As far as gameplay goes Isabelle’s moveset is not of my personal preference. As fun and useful as the Fishing Rod is, I prefer Villager more in terms of setting up tactics. I think Villager’s tree special alone is fun enough for me to use Villager over Isabelle. Although, one thing I love to do with Isabelle is when the opponent is vulnerable as hell, I like to pull-off Isabelle’s Side Smash as a surprise attack. It gives me an excuse to scream out “SURPRISE ************!” when I pull out the party popper, and that makes the move satisfying when KOing opponents. Isabelle is a nice inclusion and I was initially quite happy when she was revealed, but creatively, a lot more could have been done to her moveset.
Ken: If I could go back in time to change my second major newcomer predictions, I would have added Ken. For some reason, despite being open to echoes since Daisy’s reveal (somewhat), I did not seriously consider Ken. The community’s idea of Ken being likely because of him being the “original echo fighter” did not convince me to add him in my predictions. I do not remember the details, but I believe I excluded Ken when I made my new predictions in June 2018 because I thought the number of echoes was going to be a small number at the time. (I later expected a bigger echo count after the August Direct) After Daisy’s reveal, I believed Octolings and Shadow were next and only echoes left (which ended up not being the case).
I do not have much to say about him speculation-wise beyond that. Nor do I have much to say about playing as him. I hardly play Ken or Ryu in Ultimate due to the range of their attacks being too short and their movement being too slow for my tastes. I thought I would love Ken because of his cool personality, but I was not interested after playing with him the first few times. I am not interested playing more of Ken at the moment.
Incineroar: I have an interesting history with predicting Pokemon newcomers. At first, I joined the bandwagon and predicted Decidueye as early as 2016. But, when I came back to speculate newcomers for Smash Switch and evolved my mindset over time, my thoughts slowly began to change. I remember fondly in May 2018 when I made the bold decision to predict Lycanroc over Decidueye. I found major flaws in the community’s arguments the more I researched Sakurai’s process of choosing Pokemon newcomers, and that the super chances people gave to the archer owl were primarily driven by just popularity and moveset potential, not taking into account other factors such as how much the Pokemon really gets marketed in merchandise, games, and the Sun & Moon anime. That was what I was thinking at the time.
I was firm of Lycanroc in particular because he had the most notable marketing in Pokemon Sun and Moon. I did not think anyone else would be in because he had the most going for it. But as time passed, Vergeben eventually came forth to say that the Pokemon newcomer was not Decidueye, Mimikyu, or Lycanroc. This came across as really strange to me, and I continued to stay bold about my choice on Lycanroc until weeks or months later. When more insiders were hinting Incineroar, I began sharing my thoughts on why Incineroar did not make sense to me, saying that the Pokemon was not as marketed as Lycanroc and saying that the wrestler part of the Pokemon would not be enough to convince Sakurai to make him playable. My argument being that the sort of character already fills in the fire-based heavy niche with Charizard and Bowser, and because of that, Sakurai would have compared Incineroar to other characters and not find him interesting, find more unique, better opportunities for Generation 7 Pokemon fighter.
But the more I thought about this, as the last Smash direct came closer to airing in November, the more I realized that the Sakurai could find that wrestler style unique, regardless of Pokemon type, possibly thinking about it in fighting game terms where he had not tried out the grappler archetype until now. I also thought, “Maybe you do not need to be the most promoted Pokemon to get in, you just got to be promoted notably enough”. I had accepted my loss at that point, grasping the little hope I had that Lycanroc would get in with non-Vergeben rumors at the same time.
I still felt pretty mixed after Incineroar’s reveal, not really liking the character until I got to play as him heavily online. He is pretty slow and his range sucks, but his killer tools like his build-up counter special and the snarky attitude he has after attacking an opponent made me like him a lot. I hardly win matches with Incineroar online because of his weaknesses, but he is still overall pretty fun.
Looking back, I wish I had considered Incineroar more and had not thought about him negatively in a moveset comparison sense. The past is the past though, and I admit to my logical faults on Incineroar speculation-wise. Now I like his inclusion. The time of predicting Pokemon newcomer for the base game was a wild ride from beginning to end. Incineroar is the only unique newcomer in the base game that I was wrong about. The funny thing about Pokemon newcomer speculation in is that Decidueye ended up being one of the final two candidates in Ultimate’s project plan. I realized that maybe the Pokemon criteria did not matter. Maybe uniqueness was the first and most important factor Sakurai considered when choosing a Pokemon newcomer. That aside, I am happy about his inclusion, mostly because Golden-senpai finally got what he wanted in Smash Ultimate (Poor Shadow though).
Piranha Plant: If you told me that a generic Super Mario enemy would actually be playable in Smash, I would not have believed you, even in the hypothetical timeline where Vergeben had the courage to say Piranha Plant was in Smash when he was given this info earlier before the November 2018 Direct. I was in disbelief when I saw that reveal. I initially saw Piranha Plant in a negative light after the direct. I am still mixed about his inclusion today, but not as much as before.
Seeing Sakurai say in an interview that he was the kind of fighter equivalent to Mr. Game & Watch, R.O.B., and Duck Hunt was disappointing to me. Personally, I like the surprise fighters that represent an obscure, but essential part of Nintendo’s history, and Piranha Plant left a bad taste in my mouth, being just a generic enemy not really representing a core part of Nintendo or even Mario well. I would have been fine with Piranha Plant had there been more kinds of surprise fighters like retros in the base game, but he is the only surprise Nintendo newcomer choice of Ultimate thus far.
Playing as Piranha Plant, he is not a bad character. I enjoy playing as him, though not primarily for the jokes. I think all of his special moves are absurdly good that makes him a solid edge-guarder and a beast in stage control. My favorite non-special moves to use are his F-Air, B-Air, and Side-Tilt because the start up of those moves is very quick and do decent damage (Especially the latter, where I can pull off two Side-tilts in early percents). Piranha Plant is a dope addition, gameplay-wise.
Joker: I had actually thought of the possibility of Joker before and added him in a hypothetical line-up where all the big Japanese 3rd-party newcomers are present, putting Joker as the Bayonetta-kind of character. By that, I mean Sakurai making an exception to the rule, where being a long-time gaming icon does not matter, moreso franchise merits that make his inclusion worthy for Smash.
Persona was definitely in the ranks worthy of merit to me because it was one of the most critically acclaimed JRPG series ever, much like how the Bayonetta games are considered by Sakurai to be one of the most fluid action games ever. Joker felt like a choice Sakurai would go for if he broke his third-party criteria again. That is why I saw him as a real possibility, though not for the base game because of the project plan date preceding Joker’s game (P5 was first released in Japan in 2016 after all). And with DLC, I was not willing to predict him at all, given the continued uncertainty of project plan dates at the time to make the bet. I was focused on predicting bigger Japanese gaming icons like Frogger, Leon Kennedy, and Sora. I shrugged off the possibility of a Bayonetta-esque third-party under the carpet.
To be honest, I wanted to be hyped by Joker’s reveal back then, but when I saw the reveal trailer, I was dying for a P5 Switch port more than anything else. My reaction to the Smash invitation was disappointment initially. If that was a reveal for Yu (the protagonist of Persona 4, which is my f#2 favorite game ever), I would have been hyped. At that time, I have not played P5 to be as hyped as other people were like AfroSenju XL back when the Game Awards aired in December 2018.
Playing as Joker is very fun. He feels like the best combination of Fox and Sheik, and racks hits pretty fast. Something about playing as him makes me want to give my all in skill. This satisfaction of playing as him likely comes from the fact that most of his moves have very little end lag. Joker nearly hits the sweet spot for me in terms of move options. Because of playing as Joker online so much and having a PS4 at the time (which I primarily bought for Kingdom Hearts 3), I ended up buying Persona 5 this May to finally play the protagonist’s game. So far, I am enjoying the game a lot, though not as much as Persona 4. It is too addicting to play though, to the point where the game is responsible for eating the time away from writing my Smash Ultimate thoughts after classes this spring were over. Oops.
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Thoughts on Smash Ultimate’s Newcomer Lineup Overall
In my opinion, the overall lineup of Ultimate’s base game newcomers come is alright (speaking in number of unique newcomers), but I feel it is very small. I understand that Sakurai’s goal of bringing back every veteran was the number one priority for Smash Ultimate. That feat is worthy of high admiration, but it is not something I completely jive with, as someone that prefers the large number of unique newcomers Sakurai set forth in the previous two Smash games.
I personally think the only glaring omission in Ultimate’s newcomer list is a retro character. In my opinion, retro characters are what distinguished Sakurai as a game director that truly showed the passion he had for Nintendo, representing even the most obscure works in Nintendo history. Retro characters kickstarted the idea of potential revivals of dormant Nintendo IPs, bringing a feeling of hope for people that one day, those old franchises can get sequels like KI: Uprising. I adore that retros have made some Smash fans feel this way.
Retros also have moveset potential that cannot be found in other kinds of Nintendo characters bringing a unique nostalgic flavor and distinction. I speak of retros like Lip the fairy with her flower puzzle abilities and Takamaru the samurai with his Japanese weaponry. Without the retro, Ultimate’s overall list of newcomers loses that special touch of Sakurai magic, with the newcomer variety feeling somewhat lacking as a result. One new retro would have made Ultimate’s newcomer list satisfying enough for me.
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Looking Back on How I Speculated for Smash Ultimate
When I saw the ‘Everyone is Here!’ trailer in Nintendo’s E3 2018 direct for the first time, my mind was blown. As someone that had read a ton of Sakurai interviews for the purposes of Ultimate speculation, I believed Sakurai would go beyond veterans and include 15+ unique newcomers to blow the most hardcore Smash speculators away, given his notable improvement in efficiency in developing unique newcomers over the past four Smash games.
In retrospect, that prospect was ridiculous to me now when considering the number of characters in the roster Sakurai would have to balance carefully and give content for, if the number of unique newcomers went beyond the six he chose for the base game. I rejected the fewer newcomers possibility and Sakurai’s statement of “not many fighters to reveal left”, but not for simple reasons. It goes beyond that, rooting in the beginnings of me speculating for Smash Switch in March 8, 2018.
I originally did not want to speculate at all, being content with my new hobbies of anime and manga. I said that I would be hanging on the sides with speculation this time, not going full-on speculation mode as Smash 4. However, over time, I started to get back in a groove of researching Nintendo franchises, Sakurai interviews, and possible third-party connections that could lead to a character in Smash, I began to enjoy speculating. I was more careful into connecting the dots. I researched in-depth on every possible newcomer candidate, gradually forming those thoughts through discussions on the Smash Switch’s Newcomer Speculation section. My primary reasons for speculating blossomed over time, those reasons being:
1. Speculating in general was a nice exercise of improving my writing skills. At the time of speculating for Ultimate, I was also writing in-depth impressions of anime and manga I finished, analyzing the execution of story, characters, presentation etc. These skills of writing about anime came to use for speculation and I was way better at explaining things than I previously was in Smash 4 speculation times. I greatly enjoyed explaining in-depth on why I believed Tom Nook had a high chance of being in Smash, why I believed Lycanroc had a solid chance of being the Pokemon newcomer, or why I stuck to my belief of Isaac and Captain Toad having a small chance getting in Smash in the Rate Their Chances thread.
2. I wanted to redeem myself for pulling back my Bayonetta prediction last minute, a before she was revealed in Smash 4’s final direct in 2016. I had the strong belief that Bayonetta would get in due to Platinum Games’ close connection to Nintendo, ballot popularity, and the endless amounts of moveset potential that Sakurai could utilize for the character in Smash. I pulled back because I did not have full faith and greatly feared potential ridicule if I ended up being wrong. When it came to Smash Ultimate speculation, I set a new goal of sticking to my beliefs and not following the popular consensus on which newcomer is likely or not.
That belief stayed true to an extent, since I wanted to revise my predictions after the E3 2018 Nintendo Direct. When I chose to redo the predictions, I told myself that it would be the last time I revise them. I stuck with my beliefs and I got rewarded for it. The bold prediction of predicting Simon and Ridley before they were seen as likely at later points of speculation worked in my favor (again, no bragging points for this, haha!). I stuck to my beliefs of Isabelle likely getting in and finally saw the pacifist argument come to a close. My risky prediction of K. Rool actually came true. Those particular newcomer reveals kept me faithful to my predictions. I was on a streak of correct unique newcomer predictions. As the months went by with the streak continuing, I believed that sticking to my gut was the right way to go. It felt like I might finally nail my newcomer predictions this time.
3. The friends I had close bonds with over the course of Smash Ultimate base game speculation. I was following many support threads at the time, speaking openly with supporters of Bandanna Dee, Ashley, Isaac, King K. Rool, Chorus Kids, Lip, Professor Layton, Lycanroc, Sora, Prince Sable, Isabelle, and many other newcomers. I gained closer friendships with many Smashboard users like N3ON, King Sonnn Dededoo, Cosmic77, Pacack, WeirdChillFever, and GoldenYuiitusin over discussing Ultimate speculation. A number of users that closely participated in the Rate Their Chances thread became closer buddies to me. Those friendships eventually expanded outside of Smashboards like mimique’s Discord server.
These three things kept me going as a Smash speculator and made me keep faith in my newcomer predictions. That belief was so strong to the point where I found the possibility of veterans getting in the way of developing more newcomers to be very unlikely. I believed I was in the right path. I even took the risk of betting real money to Cutie Gwen, betting that a Hanafuda character would be in Smash. That pure faith had a big part in being initially disappointed with the November 2018 Smash Direct. I do not regret the time I spent with my friends to discuss Smash though. I would not have enjoyed Smash Ultimate speculation as much if it were not for them. That being said, if there is anything you can learn from my actions, it is that even when you have a multitude of convincing things that drive your beliefs, it is not a guarantee that your faith will lead to an end goal of satisfaction. What you see as ideal and probable to happen in Smash even with solid evidence may not be a part of Sakurai’s creative vision.
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The Downs of my Smash Ultimate Speculation Journey
This section was the hardest to write about. I am going to do my best in explaining the struggles I faced in Ultimate speculation, without sounding like a salty doofus. If I come across that way at some points in this section, I apologize greatly. Ever since Smash Switch’s announcement, I had gradually become more passionate and open-minded about speculation over time. I had a major goal of influencing speculators to get outside the mindset of expecting only ballot newcomers before E3 2018 came. I did heavy research, arguing over a variety of newcomers and their chances of being playable to the best of my ability in the Rate Their Chances and Smash Switch Social thread. Yet, even in finding many speculators I could openly talk to, the community was still certain days prior to the E3 2018 Direct that the ballot would be the only thing that mattered without critically thinking about other factors.
The popular newcomers mindset was further cemented in the community after the Everyone is Here! trailer. At the time, I had somewhat of an emotional breakdown over the direction Ultimate was taking. I was unable to process all the information that I believed this Smash changed speculation for the worst. I took speculation too seriously. That was the first major low-point. After giving it some thought, I wanted to speculate once more with a second newcomer analysis in early July, changing the way I speculated, as well as changing my behavior to be less melodramatic towards things I am wrong about.
I was enjoying speculation again. I grew closer to many newcomer support groups and found more people to discuss Smash speculation in-depth with. At some point, however, I started to feel isolated. The popular newcomers only mindset was still a major belief, and eventually that made me ponder new questions in my mind: “Will the community ever change their mindset on speculation?”, “Will I ever find more people who have the level of passion in speculating as me?”, and “Will I ever find a speculator that is open to many possibilities and willing to take as much risks in predictions as I have been doing?”. I never found those kinds of people around the time and the community did not really change much either. In early August, it got to the point where I moved on to other hobbies I enjoyed (like anime) while waiting for something interesting to happen in the speculation scene.
The August Smash Direct was when more of my unique newcomer predictions had come true with Simon and K. Rool. I felt far more confident about my Skull Kid and Geno predictions with dormant characters being a real possibility and the Moon AT. I stuck to my beliefs closer, yet I still felt isolated. The same questions appeared in my mind again and I took breaks on speculation as I waited for the next newcomer reveal in September. I was more firm on my predictions after I got Isabelle right. It was around that point where I felt confident about my 15+ newcomer predictions, and believed Sakurai’s statement of not many fighters to reveal left to be a tactic that would allow Sakurai to reveal a large bundle of newcomers later.
Then the leak scene came around in October. Vergeben was sure about Incineroar in Smash and the Grinch leak spread like wildfire. I realized the speculation scene was not going to change at that point, and believed in my predictions, alone. When the November Smash Direct came, well, you already know what happened to me when I saw the November direct the first time. This was my second major low-point as a speculator. I went through a myriad of mixed feelings on several things. Neither the side that believed only popular newcomers nor the side that believed the opposite had much of a victory. Newcomer fan bases I cared about lost hope. It was definitely not a pleasant time for me.
In the end, I did not have much influence to change the Smash Ultimate speculation community scene for the better. Now, the speculation community has pretty much dried up, with some waiting for Erdrick to be revealed already. The few hardcore speculators I knew retired, left, or grew tired of speculating. To be honest, I am still willing to speculate DLC newcomers. There is a chance that I could find more open-minded speculators to discuss with. But sadly for me, I have to move on.
I wanted to have the best time in speculating Smash Ultimate’s base game with the community in 2018 before I focused and studied hard for my future career in 2019. Unfortunately, many circumstances regarding speculation, Smash, Sakurai, and the community itself lead to me not having the best experience. That is just how life goes I suppose. It sucks. Still, there are a couple more things that I want to express about Smash before I leave speculation and Smashboards for good. I still have a little more strong passion for Smash left within me!
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Newcomers I Personally Believe Smash’s Roster Needs
I want to use my knowledge of Nintendo and Japanese gaming one more time with this particular topic because it is interesting to talk about. Throughout my year-long research of every potential Smash Bros candidate, I have created my minimum, but definitive list of newcomers that I believe Smash needs to make the roster complete. I want to start this by discussing Nintendo newcomer choices. Out of all of Nintendo characters I researched, the three I list below are the only ones I believe would truly complete the Nintendo all-star line-up. I feel these particular characters have earned their place in Smash due to a large number of strong achievements. I will go over the possible reasons for their exclusion in the base game, as well as speculate what their chances are if they were get in as DLC or the next Smash game.
Tom Nook: Understandably outmatched by Isabelle, in terms of recent significance to the Animal Crossing franchise, to be not be chosen in the small pool of Ultimate’s base game newcomers, Tom Nook is the only significant Animal Crossing character not yet playable in Smash. Even when Isabelle started to become the new star of the AC franchise, Tom Nook still had his fair share of significant roles in later games and still cultivated a large number of fans that loved to depict the character in tax, office, and debt related memes. The merchant is still a widely beloved Nintendo icon who continues to be strongly relevant in the Animal Crossing games. I am personally still baffled that Tom Nook is not playable to this day.
I still believe there is a lot of mainstream appeal to making Tom Nook a fighter that would get the most casual Animal Crossing fans to playing Smash, primarily for the bizarre and hilarious idea of finally beating up the merchant for debt troubles or to assert dominance by playing as the Tom to smack many players with bell bags. Tom Nook’s fighter theme of money for power is clear to me and it can easily translate to a unique play-style. One idea for Tom’s play-style is earning bells when Tom Nook is skillfully hitting opponents. The more bells obtained, the more powerful his special moves become, being able to spend bells for strong, sturdier tools such as a longer lasting recovery or a bigger house that can be spawned on the ground and crush opponents like Villager’s tree.
Tom Nook has many ways he can be unique if he were in Smash, but judging by how in Ultimate’s planning phases Sakurai initially seen Isabelle as an echo and not been able to find the potential and take creative liberty as he did for Rosalina in Smash 4 in, Tom is not an idea I can be excited for anymore when I think critically about the reality of the potential outcome. I thought when Sakurai mentioned the importance of having non-combatant newcomers back in an early Smash 4 interview, he would now be capable of thinking at a more creative level than the past Smash games to be able to come up with fun moveset ideas for Animal Crossing newcomers he planned to add in Ultimate. I overestimated Sakurai’s creative capabilities in that regard.
It seems to me that the thought of echo material for Isabelle became the emphasized thought to Sakurai more than anything else, clouding the possibility of going beyond to make a stand out play-style for the character. The low number of Ultimate unique newcomers planned via base game may have also played a part in limiting creativity, with the selection consisting of multiple ballot suggestions, a new IP character, and the placeholder new generation Pokemon, not giving room for Isabelle to come off as an standout idea worth exploring in the process of elimination to Sakurai. It is a shame because Sakurai could have done more with Animal Crossing newcomers if he thought about Isabelle a little more.
Should Tom Nook be playable in Smash one day, whether it is Ultimate DLC or a new Smash, in Sakurai’s creative hands, I think the most he will be creatively capable of is perceiving Tom as just a potential clone to expand later to distinguish as a semi-clone by using other tools in AC games that are not used by the two Animal Crossing characters in the roster. It is because of how Isabelle’s moveset was done in Smash Ultimate that I cannot passionately want Tom Nook in Smash anymore. Should Tom likely be in as a semi-clone acting as another variation of Villager’s play-style one day, I think most fans would be happy. But for me personally, it would honestly not be a satisfying outcome. It would be the least satisfying way to make one of the most iconic Nintendo characters playable.
Chorus Kids: I am incredibly surprised by the exclusion of Chorus Kids in Ultimate. I thought that the Switch having not the same level of limitations as the 3DS would not only bring back the Ice Climbers, but also re-implement the concept of Chorus Kids made in the Smash 4 planning phases too. Sadly, the most Rhythm Heaven got for representation is a bunch of stickers and music tracks.
The only explanations that could have caused their exclusion might have to do with the franchise’s popularity status in Japan in 2015 or some technical limitations that prevented the Chorus Kids from being developed. Technically speaking, I do not think the character would have faced much issues, considering the simplicity of the character designs. Perhaps the moveset concept of utilizing rhythm and timing for more powerful attacks for a unique play-style did not work well in practicality? I cannot imagine that being the case at all, as it is an idea that I feel is not as complex to implement as integrating Heihachi and Tekken mechanics in Smash.
Considering the other Smash fighters that have moves involving input timing like Wii Fit’s Down-B and Incineroar’s Side-B, I do not think it would be a hard task for Sakurai. Unless, this became a problem in multiplayer, where multiple players that are playing Chorus Kids have to listen to cues to activate the full power of rhythm-based moves and that becoming a potentially frustrating task. Perhpas that is the issue, but it is hard to imagine that being a problem, as there are easy solutions to making that work, such as adding visual effects that indicate timing, like a shrinking enclosing, almost invisible circle in every move that lets you know when to attack when it shrinks to a dot.
Maybe Sakurai only had one new IP newcomer in mind, and chose to add Inklings in Smash Ultimate over Chorus Kids due to the mainstream success of Splatoon, being compared to Rhythm Heaven Megamix’s underwhelming sales performance in Japan in the same year (Megamix had only been localized and released at the West in 2016 to not be a factor for Ultimate’s 2015 project plan)? Maybe the uniqueness Inklings had perhaps struck more of a chord with Sakurai than his old Smash 4 concept of the Chorus Kids?
To be honest, it frustrates me somewhat that the Chorus Kids are not in yet. Rhythm Heaven as a franchise has gained a strong cult following in the West over the years, continuing to stay strongly relevant today with fan projects like Rhythm Reanimate. It has such a dedicated fan base that is as passionate as the MOTHER and Xenoblade fan base. Now in some parts of the Smash community, Chorus Kids is just seen as a joke that should not be in over other fan wants. The Rhythm Heaven franchise has been proven to be worthy of a playable character in Smash 4 through game success and popularity of the DS and Wii iterations, yet it has not happened yet.
I have a small grain of hope that Chorus Kids might be in the Fighter’s Pass due to Reggie’s old Game Awards 2018 statement of DLC fighters being new to the series and the spirit stuff not being an impenetrable wall after looking into several bits of data-mined information. I generally think that all the DLC fighters will be profitable third-party guests that attract new audiences to Smash. I do not think Chorus Kids will be part of it because of that, but who knows?
Dixie Kong: I remember when many supporters had regained hope for Dixie after Isabelle’s reveal opened up the possibility of other semi-clones in the September 2018 Nintendo Direct. Unfortunately, Isabelle was the only character to receive the special semi-clone treatment, while every other new clone was echoed. Dixie Kong’s large amount of votes in the ballot ended up getting the character at most a special nod by Sakurai with the Mii hat. That likely closes the door for Dixie being playable in Ultimate.
It is very weird that Dixie is not in Smash’s roster now, considering the prime timing of Tropical Freeze’s 2014 release that made Dixie a relevant, significant character in the Donkey Kong Country franchise again and her scrapped playable appearance in Brawl. My guess for Dixie not being considered seriously for Ultimate probably lies in Sakurai’s mindset of deciding clones, specifically the first step of the process on deciding whether the character is appropriate for echo treatment. Considering the likely semi-clone plans Sakurai likely sketched for Dixie in Brawl and the distinct body features that make her different from Diddy, there is a real possibility that Sakurai came in conflict and first deemed Dixie Kong not appropriate for echo treatment. Thus, the potential next step of Dixie becoming a semi-clone never passed for Sakurai and his Ultimate project plan.
Realistically, the only way I can see Dixie become playable is if she becomes relevant with a significant role in a new DKC game and maintain strong fan-popularity for a new Smash. That is, if Sakurai has the semi-clone development mindset again with new potential semi-clone candidates not impeding the way for Dixie. The planets would have to align for Dixie to get in. If I were being honest, I would much rather have seen Dixie get the semi-clone treatment and not Isabelle to accompany King K. Rool and complete DKC character representation. Beyond that, I have not much else to say about the character. Dixie is the only remaining significant DKC newcomer not in Smash yet.
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Transitioning to third-party newcomers, I am going to talk less from a speculation standpoint and more of what I want to see happen. I had this thought for a while ever since I finalized my third-party newcomer choices in my second predictions, and I strongly believe that Sakurai should add the remaining gaming icons for the Fighter Pass. If Sakurai is not going to add the remaining Nintendo all-stars in Ultimate, at the very least, add characters from iconic, high-selling franchises such as Frogger, Resident Evil, Kingdom Hearts, and Tekken are from companies Sakurai already has been given permission to use IPs of.
Hell, if Sakurai is going to add third-party characters from franchises whose success roots mostly from Japan such as Erdrick (assuming he happens), he might as well add Monster Hunter and Lloyd Irving too (Though the former is kind of unlikely to happen now, given Ratholos and its role in Ultimate’s base game). Represent every huge Japanese video game franchise that moved the gaming era forward. Ultimate should expand with more fighter passes to make the remaining third-party guests playable before the inevitable licensing nightmare comes for the next Smash game. That is a dream feat that should happen while we still have the dream feat of every Smash veteran returning in Ultimate.
But, it feels likely that Sakurai will be settled and satisfied after the first Fighter Pass has been completed in development. I would not blame Sakurai if he decided to take a long break from Smash for after DLC is done. It would be a warranted move given Sakurai’s huge efforts for Ultimate. But if things are going to end with the first pass, it will be a missed opportunity in my opinion. Sakurai should achieve another dream scenario for Ultimate before he possibly leaves Smash Bros. for good. This kind of roster should happen:
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A Potential Route for a Future Iteration of the Super Smash Bros Series
I want to talk about the potential of a new Smash game. A new Smash sequel would likely never reach the dreamy heights of Ultimate’s roster and probably alienate the fan base should an adjusted roster with a large number of veterans and newcomers cut happen. I personally think the best route a new Smash can go to that could make the franchise refreshing is not by exploring Nintendo characters and gaming icons again. Rather, by exploring characters from other Japanese mediums, specifically characters from anime and manga.
I dabbled around the concept for fun at the start of 2019 after being invested in the Japanese mediums for two years. I grew fonder appreciation for anime and manga over time for the emotional character stories and wacky ideas/concepts used to tell compelling themes and messages. The more I thought about it, the more I loved the idea. I adored the idea of representing more of the Japan media industry via anime and manga characters in Smash, beyond Japan’s gaming icons.
Anime/manga characters have a more to dabble with in terms of moveset potential. They have a whole goldmine and have a high level of distinction that not even third-party characters can provide. Magical girls that kick ass like Nagisa & Honoka from Pretty Cure and Cardcaptor Sakura. Shonen protagonists with bizarre powers and intriguingly complex battle systems like Gon’s Nen abilities and Luffy’s Devil Fruit powers. Mecha fighters like Simon of Gurren Lagann and Shinji Akari of Evangelion that would make R.O.B. **** his pants. Where else in the video game medium would you find famous characters who can turn into an epic titan like Eren Yaeger, a godly martial artist like Goku, or a swift and badass detective like Shinichi Kudo? All of these potential ideas drive my imagination like crazy. It is why I want to see Sakurai do an anime Smash so badly. Like, really REALLY badly!
The major things that would impede the idea from happening are licensing matters and Sakurai’s potential difficulties with incorporating anime/manga characters in Smash. To be honest, I have no idea how collaborations and negotiations happen between anime/manga companies and publishers, contrast to my vast, but limited knowledge of how negotiations works between many Japanese gaming companies. Chances are that it would probably cost a lot more to license the big time popular anime/manga franchises for characters. It would be even harder when considering the potential difficulties of licensing anime OSTs, opening and ending songs to add in an anime Smash.
Regarding Sakurai’s potential difficulties, it is more so from a gameplay and gaming stance. It could take a lot more creative liberties and extensive research to translate anime/manga characters in Smash. Not anime/manga characters can provide a core gameplay mechanic from their franchise that can easily set down a foundation for a unique Smash play-style. I think this way because I get the feeling that Sakurai might be more comfortable with the gaming side than of the anime/manga side, given his history of playing tons of video games in his life. It would take many big steps for Sakurai to be cozy with the idea of an anime Smash.
Even with the major obstacles that could prevent the idea, I think that it is possible, considering Sakurai’s high reputation in the Japanese game industry and Sakurai’s known fondness for uniqueness in characters. Perhaps his reputation will let other Japanese anime/manga companies and publishers, with Sakurai being capable of handling characters in the most faithful ways that could impress them to allow their characters in Smash. Should Sakurai take the potential opportunity, he will have a nearly endless set of characters that I personally believe will fuel his mind with a sparking pool of creative gameplay ideas. If the idea comes ends up too difficult, perhaps Sakurai can simply start out with using Shonen Jump characters, starting with an IP he is comfortable with such as JoJo’s Bizarre Adventure, then expanding with new anime/manga properties from there. I strongly believe an anime Smash would be the ideal and refreshing route for Sakurai to take on for the next game of the franchise.
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These are all of my thoughts. I had a boatload to write about. There may or may not be contradictions and messiness in these thoughts, and I apologize if there are any. I tried my best at remembering as much details of events and interactions of Smash Ultimate speculation community. Feel free to ask me a few questions about Smash speculation and perhaps ask my opinions on other stuff. Although at my current state, I might not be able to answer the questions in the best way. I plan to leave Smashboards for good by the end of May or early June to move on to a new point in my life, so think about the questions carefully.
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On November 1st 2018, the Smash Ultimate speculation community faced the biggest twist in Smash history when Sakurai presented the final Smash Ultimate direct. 90% of the Smash fan base were convinced by the Grinch leak a few weeks prior, due to the large amount of “evidence” and events going on around the time that made the leak convincing to most. At the time, I immediately considered the Grinch leak to be fake because of the lack of a Pokémon newcomer and how blatantly obvious the leak was catering towards Smash fans that primarily wanted fan-popular characters. The newcomers in the leak felt like the most un-Sakurai decisions to me, considering the previous Smash games’ newcomers were a mix of popular and Sakurai’s personal choices.
In the midst of the chaos, I had confidently committed to my 10+ unique newcomer predictions I made back in July 2018 due to me miraculously maintaining my unique newcomer prediction streak. An hour before the Smash Direct aired, I felt unusually confident that Sakurai was going to deliver. It was a feeling that Sakurai was going to bring more than the expected Ken and Incineroar. There were numerous possible newcomer scenarios I thought could happen in the direct that excited me, ranging a barrage of Japanese gaming icons being revealed to getting 5+ newcomers that did not match the Grinch leak’s unrealistic choices for unique newcomers. All of these scenarios were positively stimulating to think about, but I kept expectations low.
Would my in-depth newcomer research pay off? Would my time spent on Ultimate speculation end up being a disaster? The emotional combination of uncertainty of truth and positive expectations grew as the direct was closer to airing. As I watched the direct, my eyes paid close attention to every single detail. After the early point of learning that Ken and Incineroar were the last two newcomers, I could not help but laugh, being shocked at the same time that Source Gaming’s box theory happened. At that point, the only things I wanted to know to were execution of the game’s features and modes and who would be disconfirmed as Assist Trophies.
After that direct, I could not help but laugh again, expressing my brief thoughts on social media in a knee-jerkingly way, saying that I would quit speculation for good after seeing the things in the direct that turned my perspective of DLC newcomer speculation into a complete 180º. So many things regarding speculation came into my mind, clashing with the empathetic thoughts of many fanbases of newcomers I thought had a real chance like Shadow and Skull Kid, clashing with my thoughts on other things like Spirits Mode and lack of trophies, and clashing with my thoughts on how Sakurai handled the fueling of speculation from beginning to end, The only things I could enjoy left were the memes that spawned from the direct on Twitter. I felt that my knowledge on Nintendo and speculation had been wasted. The issues I had was so much, that trying to write my thoughts on Smash Ultimate overall while not being a terrible mood was a very difficult task for a while, until now that is.
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Thoughts on Smash Ultimate Game Modes and Other Content
Before I get into the meat of this thread, I want to briefly go over the content I liked and disliked. I do not have much to delve into with likes though. In terms of modes, the single player modes in particular are pretty lacking. The only single-player mode that was satisfying to play every time was Classic Mode because of the nice variety in challenges and the quick pacing of completing each character’s campaign. I did not bat an eye on the rest of the modes. Except for Spirits, which is overall a very disappointing feature of Ultimate.
At first, I kind of liked the idea of Spirits because it allowed most of Nintendo’s niche IPs to be represented. But the more Spirit of Light and Spirit Board I played to grind for all the spirits, the more of a chore it became. The rewarding feeling of obtaining spirits started to wear down on me near the 1000+ mark. As much as I can admire Sakurai’s effort of implementing somewhat interesting gameplay mechanics/variety of each Spirit, getting spirits became more of an “mobile-game-like” addiction more than an enjoyable time. At that point, it felt like I was just collecting art of Nintendo characters that I have already seen as a hardcore Nintendo fan.
Spirits could have easily been better had Ultimate’s budget been larger to make a few adjustments. At least, Spirits should have had descriptions so that players that obtain them can learn a bit more about the origins to invite players into exploring other Nintendo IPs. Spirits should have at least been original models of characters akin to the likes of Melee’s retro character trophies so that they would have some sort of value in collecting. Heck, if Sakurai were to really make Spirits as a concept work, the staff could have gone a little farther and made animated models of every spirit. I would have preferred that scenario the most, even if it meant sacrificing some representation of obscure Nintendo IPs in the process.
Spirits generally feel like a shallow way to represent everything in Nintendo history. Spirits feel like a quantity over quality problem. Trophies should have just returned. Trophies have become engraved into Smash’s unique identity for past three Smash games, and it is saddening that they had to be replaced with a feature with far less depth. Even with the issues I have with Spirits, should a new Smash game come, I would like to see Spirits revisited and revised. But, I feel it is likely going to be a concept Sakurai moves away from with regret like Subspace Emissary.
As for other content I liked, the only things that sparked my interest was Lip getting a special nod by Sakurai with the Mii costume. As someone that closely participated in the Lip support thread and speculated Lip as Ultimate’s retro newcomer, I found the Mii costume to be dope. I use the Mii costume often in online matches when I get the chance. The other Mii costumes from niche IPs like Golden Sun and Chibi Robo were dope too. Playing as Mii Fighters now is a lot more fun and inviting now with the niche Mii costumes. The only disappointing thing about Mii costumes is that there is no Mii costume for Prince Sable, which I would have loved (though it probably would not have happened due to low ballot demand I bet).
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My Thoughts on Smash Ultimate’s Newcomers
How do I feel about the newcomers that Smash Ultimate’s base game provided now that time has passed? I will finally give those thoughts out now, starting from Ridley to the most recent Joker. I will go over the character speculation wise and go over a bit how I feel about each gameplay wise.
Inklings: I had predicted Inklings in a hypothetical Smash Switch game prior to the reveal Inklings in Smash Switch in March 2018. Based on the huge success of the IP and their potential as fighters, it was pretty obvious to me in 2016 that they would get in. The number of merits they have as a newcomer was so massive, that it would have been shocking to not see them in a new Smash sequel. There is not much to say about Inklings beyond that, speculation-wise.
Playing as Inklings is weird. Gameplay-wise, it is bizarre to play as Inklings in a 2D plane, when I am used to playing as Inkling with the buttery-smooth 3D controls of the original Splatoon. I got used to it eventually though. As strange as it sounds, I do not play as much of Inklings online heavily because of that. Not being able to dive in ink I splatted and move swiftly inside the ink for defense is a huge disappointment. I feel Sakurai could have something to make Inklings more faithful, while having the diving ink movement mechanic present. As for the character’s moveset itself, it is fine and I do not have much to say about, though I generally find the Splat Bomb to be pretty slow in start-up. That special move could definitely use a buff.
Ridley: I began predicting Ridley the moment Vergeben posted a rumor of Simon and Ridley being playable characters, days prior to more insider sources coming to side with Vergeben’s sources. This was a very risky prediction to me, because of the controversial Ridley debates that happened for the past three Smash games. I used have a firm negative stance on Ridley back in the Smash 4 speculation days. I was as skeptical of the 2018 Ridley rumors as most of the fan base back then before Verge posted his rumor. As soon as Verge posted his rumor though, I contemplated on my thoughts on Ridley and quickly concluded that predicting Ridley was worth it based on Sakurai’s past decisions of changing his mind on newcomers. Now would have been the best time to predict the space dragon before predicting him near E3 would feel like a bandwagon prediction with the potential increasing credibility of frequent Ridley rumors, I thought. I managed to get Ridley correctly, and it felt rewarding to see a risk come through, though I had said I would not get bragging points for the risk. I was pretty happy to see the Ridley fan base go wild towards the reveal.
As for my thoughts on playing Ridley, he is ok. He has some neat killing options all around his moveset, but I find the start-up in some moves and overall movement to be too slow for my personal liking. He is not a fighter that I have fun playing as, as fun as other heavies as Bowser and King Dedede. I would be playing Ridley online heavily, had he not been the first and only character I unlocked Elite Smash with. I am afraid that I will lose Elite Smash mode if I play as Ridley again online. I might try playing as him offline more to master the character and find fun combos and mix-ups.
Daisy: This character threw me off. Before her reveal, I concluded my thoughts that Daisy would not get in due to her lack of importance in mainline Mario games after Super Mario Land. I predicted that there was going to be one semi-clone newcomer, veteran, and one near-clone akin to Dark Pit. A “Wolf, Jigglypuff, and Toon Link” of Brawl in a sense, but with a near clone as the third instead.
When Daisy was revealed at E3 2018, the main criteria for near clones (now called echoes) begun to change for me. I thought if her significance to the Mario series was not a detriment in echo decisions, then the criteria for echoes must be very loose. I opened up to other possibilities, thinking about the possibility of third-party echoes like Shadow, since his Assist Trophy disappearance in Ultimate’s E3 2018 demo was missing. In terms of fan reception, I was most glad to see memoryman3’s wish come true since Daisy was the last thing I expected from Sakurai, though that user quickly transitioned to complain about Daisy’s clone status right after.
Gameplay-wise, I think Daisy is a pretty dope inclusion. I do not like the play-styles of Peach and Daisy personally, but when I am in the mood to play as either, I go with Daisy because of her tomboyish personality. I do not have many thoughts on Daisy beyond that.
Simon Belmont: Like Ridley, I began predicting Simon as soon as Verge posted his rumor on GameFaqs. I had a neutral stance on Simon prior to the rumor because of the company Konami being **** towards their employees and Kojima. I thought this would change Sakurai morally to not add Snake and other Konami newcomers, even when I knew Masahiro Sakurai had close memories growing up with the franchise. It turns out this was not the case, which I assumed when the Vergeben rumor came. I took the early risk to predict him because Sakurai possibly changing his mind. As a result of Simon, I also predicted Snake right after.
It was sort of a dramatic ride maintaining my prediction of Simon up to the August Direct, because some Smash fans were debating about Simon not being in, even after Snake’s reveal in the Everyone is Here trailer that made Simon an easy prediction to make at that point. This skepticism was understandable to an extent due to Verge’s mixed record of correct rumors. I saw Simon supporters losing hope as the negative environment around the character grew. When his reveal came, I was pretty happy. Like Ridley though, I said to myself I would not get bragging points for being wrong about Simon prior to the Verge rumor. It was so disappointing to see the reactions outside of the support thread, because the most popular reaction videos I saw were people who seem to hardly care about Castlevania (Outside of Somecallmejohnny’s reaction).
Looking back, I should have realized back then ultimately Sakurai wanting to bring veterans back would be the ultimate reason Sakurai would willingly negotiate with Konami for their characters. Even then, I still think that there still may have been a moral dilemma. Transitioning to the gameplay of Simon, I will clarify more on that with the next newcomer.
Richter Belmont: This echo threw me off-guard. I knew a bit about Richter’s game with Somecallmejohnny’s review on Rondo of Blood prior to the reveal, but the idea of him as an echo fighter was never thought of. I was mostly thinking about popular echo choices like Octolings and Shadow prior to the reveal that Richter was never brought up in the Smash speculation community as a real possibility. I had realized after Richter’s reveal that the criteria for echoes were absolute loose. The possibility of a large number of new echo fighters came into mind for me because of the ease of development and Sakurai possibly catering to as many fans as possible with these kinds of characters. My prediction ended up being not true, with Smash Ultimate’s echo count being lower than expected. Richter Belmont’s inclusion definitely shows Sakurai’s love (and bias) for Castlevania. I like to think when Sakurai decided to add Richter, he was like “To hell with it, I will feed my ego and do what I want!”
I personally prefer playing Richter over Simon due to his personality. His brave look compared to Simon’s rather grim expression made me choose to play Richter. I kind of liked playing as Simon when I got him in World of Light. But after I beat the story campaign to unlock all characters, I started playing Richter more. After playing as Richter online multiple times, his play-style is now embodied to my spirit and soul.
It is fun to play as Richter when I am playing mix-ups aggressively on an opponent. Sometimes, it is a bit of a struggle to play as Richter when playing against characters with quick priority attacks, but the challenge in winning those kinds of matches is so gratifying. I do not exactly main Richter, but I enjoy playing as him when I am in the mood to do so. Richter is one of my favorite characters to play as out of all Ultimate newcomers. Nowadays, I imagine an alternate universe where Richter was the big star of Castlevania and not Simon, because he is much cooler to me.
Chrom: I would have never predicted Chrom getting in as an echo fighter. I thought after Daisy’s reveal that even in the situation of echo fighter criteria were very loose, Sakurai would not add Chrom due to his feelings on Fire Emblem representation in his interview about Corrin. That interview is why I did not predict Lyndis and why I eventually stopped predicting Celica as a possible Fire Emblem semi-clone of Robin (Which was an idea I used to strongly believe in). Chrom’s reveal further cemented the idea that echo fighter rules were absolute absolutely loose, and that the echoes could be anyone.
Gameplay-wise, I used to not like playing against him online, because the matches I play against him tend to go for the same strategies and relying on the Up-Special for cheap kills. The Up-Special tactic is fixed in a latter game patch and makes playing against Chrom less frustrating. I remember when Smash Ultimate first came out, his addition felt very rushed in the first release, given the notable discrepancies I saw on social media like Chrom appearing in Robin’s Final Smash. The care Chrom got made me see the character negatively at first.
Nowadays, I enjoy playing as Chrom because of his absurd quick attacks, movement, and excellent aerial game. I find the character most fun to play when I use constant mix-ups, with a playstyle that it is not the typical Chrom online player. When I play as Chrom, it is kind of a fun game of “every attack matters, and if you miss an attack, you are wide open and prone to losing a stock quick by edgeguard.” I enjoy playing as him, more than Roy admittedly. Chrom is possibly one of my favorite echoes to play, as alongside my other echo main Dark Pit.
Dark Samus: Like Chrom, I would have never predicted Dark Samus either. Her not appearing in recent Metroid games made me doubt her (Just so you know, I thought the dormant Nintendo character logic applied only to unique Nintendo newcomers as a possible echo at the time). I did not think that the lack of her AT in the E3 2018 demo was an indication of her playable. I believe I said that after Ridley, that would be all the character representation Metroid got. Of course, I was wrong on that front. Looking back, I wish I was not so concerned about franchise representation to bet on echoes and betted on riskier echo choices instead of playing it safe with choices I had near confidence on.
As far as playing as Dark Samus goes, she is fun to play whenever I get the chance. I prefer Dark Samus over Samus aesthetically with her blue plasma attacks Beyond that, I do not have anything more to say about the character. I have not explored Samus and Dark Samus enough, neither am I so interested in practicing them at the current moment.
King K. Rool: This was one of the few Smash newcomers that I considered a risky bet prior to the reveal. King K. Rool was a very risky prediction to me because there were hardly any sources of Sakurai talking about the Donkey Kong Country games and Diddy inclusion in Brawl. Even when I researched the current situation with Rare and the team at Nintendo who were in charge of the Donkey Kong IP now, it went nowhere. There was hardly anything that made me feel sure about K. Rool, contrast to the confidence people had about the character primarily due to only the ballot and nothing else.
The main things that made me willing to predict King K. Rool was the Mii costume in Smash 4 and Sakurai’s statements about Geno when discussing his Mii costume. The latter was the biggest positive factor to me because it suggested that there could be a chance that Sakurai could make characters that were dormant in their respective franchises finally playable. Out of all of the dormant Nintendo characters, I felt more confident on Geno and Skull Kid, since there were more things that could’ve line up for their inclusion (In SK’s case, that was way before the Moon Assist reveal in the August Direct). Funny how things work, because King K. Rool ended up being the only old, dormant character that got in Ultimate’s base game. K. Rool’s reveal back then gave me further confidence that Skull Kid and Geno could also get in as a result, but that did not happen. I feel lucky that I managed to get K. Rool right.
Playing as this character is pretty fun. His aerials are surprisingly fast and satisfying to use (Back-Air and Down-Air are highlights). I like using his projectiles sometimes to mix things, usually the Crown Toss since it starts up faster. I wish his cannonball special move angled in more directions, but the strict angle is good enough in terms of unpredictability for me to be ok with it. I think K. Rool’s super armor belly makes the character too broken, even with the drawbacks of the shield being able to make K. Rool dizzy. The shield armor should only be in K. Rool’s counter special. Issues aside, I think K. Rool is one of the best heavies to play as. I personally play K. Rool online far more than Ultimate’s other unique newcomers.
Isabelle: Since the beginning of Smash Switch speculation, I had 99% confidence of Isabelle getting in. The heavy marketing and promotion that the character received since her debut in New Leaf (similar to Rosalina prior to her reveal in Smash 4), the large popularity she has worldwide, and the unconventional moveset potential she had akin to Villager and Wii Fit Trainer made me sure that she was going to be in. She had become a huge staple for the Animal Crossing franchise that I would have been shocked if Sakurai excluded her.
Although I was confident about Isabelle, it was a bit annoying to hear the arguments of Isabelle being too pacifist. At the time, I personally felt that Isabelle’s personality and characterization would non-issue for Sakurai. The speculation community’s idea that her fighting would go against the character was an extremely weak argument to me. I believed that Sakurai would be capable of integrating Isabelle’s personality in the little details in her moveset to make her work well in Smash. I also thought that Sakurai would be able to make a unique moveset for Isabelle, but she got the semi- clone treatment, which I have mixed feelings towards.
I personally think Isabelle could have easily gotten a unique moveset and stand out play-style distinct from Villager. I thought Sakurai would explore Isabelle to as much of a degree as Rosalina, exploring the core mechanics of New Leaf’s mayor gameplay mechanics to build a moveset out of, like how Sakurai utilized Super Mario Galaxy’s gameplay mechanics to create Rosalina’s moveset. But, it seemed like Isabelle was more suited to an echo fighter to Sakurai initially than anything else according to interviews, which, considering Sakurai’s level of creativity in making movesets, is very disappointing in my opinion.
As far as gameplay goes Isabelle’s moveset is not of my personal preference. As fun and useful as the Fishing Rod is, I prefer Villager more in terms of setting up tactics. I think Villager’s tree special alone is fun enough for me to use Villager over Isabelle. Although, one thing I love to do with Isabelle is when the opponent is vulnerable as hell, I like to pull-off Isabelle’s Side Smash as a surprise attack. It gives me an excuse to scream out “SURPRISE ************!” when I pull out the party popper, and that makes the move satisfying when KOing opponents. Isabelle is a nice inclusion and I was initially quite happy when she was revealed, but creatively, a lot more could have been done to her moveset.
Ken: If I could go back in time to change my second major newcomer predictions, I would have added Ken. For some reason, despite being open to echoes since Daisy’s reveal (somewhat), I did not seriously consider Ken. The community’s idea of Ken being likely because of him being the “original echo fighter” did not convince me to add him in my predictions. I do not remember the details, but I believe I excluded Ken when I made my new predictions in June 2018 because I thought the number of echoes was going to be a small number at the time. (I later expected a bigger echo count after the August Direct) After Daisy’s reveal, I believed Octolings and Shadow were next and only echoes left (which ended up not being the case).
I do not have much to say about him speculation-wise beyond that. Nor do I have much to say about playing as him. I hardly play Ken or Ryu in Ultimate due to the range of their attacks being too short and their movement being too slow for my tastes. I thought I would love Ken because of his cool personality, but I was not interested after playing with him the first few times. I am not interested playing more of Ken at the moment.
Incineroar: I have an interesting history with predicting Pokemon newcomers. At first, I joined the bandwagon and predicted Decidueye as early as 2016. But, when I came back to speculate newcomers for Smash Switch and evolved my mindset over time, my thoughts slowly began to change. I remember fondly in May 2018 when I made the bold decision to predict Lycanroc over Decidueye. I found major flaws in the community’s arguments the more I researched Sakurai’s process of choosing Pokemon newcomers, and that the super chances people gave to the archer owl were primarily driven by just popularity and moveset potential, not taking into account other factors such as how much the Pokemon really gets marketed in merchandise, games, and the Sun & Moon anime. That was what I was thinking at the time.
I was firm of Lycanroc in particular because he had the most notable marketing in Pokemon Sun and Moon. I did not think anyone else would be in because he had the most going for it. But as time passed, Vergeben eventually came forth to say that the Pokemon newcomer was not Decidueye, Mimikyu, or Lycanroc. This came across as really strange to me, and I continued to stay bold about my choice on Lycanroc until weeks or months later. When more insiders were hinting Incineroar, I began sharing my thoughts on why Incineroar did not make sense to me, saying that the Pokemon was not as marketed as Lycanroc and saying that the wrestler part of the Pokemon would not be enough to convince Sakurai to make him playable. My argument being that the sort of character already fills in the fire-based heavy niche with Charizard and Bowser, and because of that, Sakurai would have compared Incineroar to other characters and not find him interesting, find more unique, better opportunities for Generation 7 Pokemon fighter.
But the more I thought about this, as the last Smash direct came closer to airing in November, the more I realized that the Sakurai could find that wrestler style unique, regardless of Pokemon type, possibly thinking about it in fighting game terms where he had not tried out the grappler archetype until now. I also thought, “Maybe you do not need to be the most promoted Pokemon to get in, you just got to be promoted notably enough”. I had accepted my loss at that point, grasping the little hope I had that Lycanroc would get in with non-Vergeben rumors at the same time.
I still felt pretty mixed after Incineroar’s reveal, not really liking the character until I got to play as him heavily online. He is pretty slow and his range sucks, but his killer tools like his build-up counter special and the snarky attitude he has after attacking an opponent made me like him a lot. I hardly win matches with Incineroar online because of his weaknesses, but he is still overall pretty fun.
Looking back, I wish I had considered Incineroar more and had not thought about him negatively in a moveset comparison sense. The past is the past though, and I admit to my logical faults on Incineroar speculation-wise. Now I like his inclusion. The time of predicting Pokemon newcomer for the base game was a wild ride from beginning to end. Incineroar is the only unique newcomer in the base game that I was wrong about. The funny thing about Pokemon newcomer speculation in is that Decidueye ended up being one of the final two candidates in Ultimate’s project plan. I realized that maybe the Pokemon criteria did not matter. Maybe uniqueness was the first and most important factor Sakurai considered when choosing a Pokemon newcomer. That aside, I am happy about his inclusion, mostly because Golden-senpai finally got what he wanted in Smash Ultimate (Poor Shadow though).
Piranha Plant: If you told me that a generic Super Mario enemy would actually be playable in Smash, I would not have believed you, even in the hypothetical timeline where Vergeben had the courage to say Piranha Plant was in Smash when he was given this info earlier before the November 2018 Direct. I was in disbelief when I saw that reveal. I initially saw Piranha Plant in a negative light after the direct. I am still mixed about his inclusion today, but not as much as before.
Seeing Sakurai say in an interview that he was the kind of fighter equivalent to Mr. Game & Watch, R.O.B., and Duck Hunt was disappointing to me. Personally, I like the surprise fighters that represent an obscure, but essential part of Nintendo’s history, and Piranha Plant left a bad taste in my mouth, being just a generic enemy not really representing a core part of Nintendo or even Mario well. I would have been fine with Piranha Plant had there been more kinds of surprise fighters like retros in the base game, but he is the only surprise Nintendo newcomer choice of Ultimate thus far.
Playing as Piranha Plant, he is not a bad character. I enjoy playing as him, though not primarily for the jokes. I think all of his special moves are absurdly good that makes him a solid edge-guarder and a beast in stage control. My favorite non-special moves to use are his F-Air, B-Air, and Side-Tilt because the start up of those moves is very quick and do decent damage (Especially the latter, where I can pull off two Side-tilts in early percents). Piranha Plant is a dope addition, gameplay-wise.
Joker: I had actually thought of the possibility of Joker before and added him in a hypothetical line-up where all the big Japanese 3rd-party newcomers are present, putting Joker as the Bayonetta-kind of character. By that, I mean Sakurai making an exception to the rule, where being a long-time gaming icon does not matter, moreso franchise merits that make his inclusion worthy for Smash.
Persona was definitely in the ranks worthy of merit to me because it was one of the most critically acclaimed JRPG series ever, much like how the Bayonetta games are considered by Sakurai to be one of the most fluid action games ever. Joker felt like a choice Sakurai would go for if he broke his third-party criteria again. That is why I saw him as a real possibility, though not for the base game because of the project plan date preceding Joker’s game (P5 was first released in Japan in 2016 after all). And with DLC, I was not willing to predict him at all, given the continued uncertainty of project plan dates at the time to make the bet. I was focused on predicting bigger Japanese gaming icons like Frogger, Leon Kennedy, and Sora. I shrugged off the possibility of a Bayonetta-esque third-party under the carpet.
To be honest, I wanted to be hyped by Joker’s reveal back then, but when I saw the reveal trailer, I was dying for a P5 Switch port more than anything else. My reaction to the Smash invitation was disappointment initially. If that was a reveal for Yu (the protagonist of Persona 4, which is my f#2 favorite game ever), I would have been hyped. At that time, I have not played P5 to be as hyped as other people were like AfroSenju XL back when the Game Awards aired in December 2018.
Playing as Joker is very fun. He feels like the best combination of Fox and Sheik, and racks hits pretty fast. Something about playing as him makes me want to give my all in skill. This satisfaction of playing as him likely comes from the fact that most of his moves have very little end lag. Joker nearly hits the sweet spot for me in terms of move options. Because of playing as Joker online so much and having a PS4 at the time (which I primarily bought for Kingdom Hearts 3), I ended up buying Persona 5 this May to finally play the protagonist’s game. So far, I am enjoying the game a lot, though not as much as Persona 4. It is too addicting to play though, to the point where the game is responsible for eating the time away from writing my Smash Ultimate thoughts after classes this spring were over. Oops.
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Thoughts on Smash Ultimate’s Newcomer Lineup Overall
In my opinion, the overall lineup of Ultimate’s base game newcomers come is alright (speaking in number of unique newcomers), but I feel it is very small. I understand that Sakurai’s goal of bringing back every veteran was the number one priority for Smash Ultimate. That feat is worthy of high admiration, but it is not something I completely jive with, as someone that prefers the large number of unique newcomers Sakurai set forth in the previous two Smash games.
I personally think the only glaring omission in Ultimate’s newcomer list is a retro character. In my opinion, retro characters are what distinguished Sakurai as a game director that truly showed the passion he had for Nintendo, representing even the most obscure works in Nintendo history. Retro characters kickstarted the idea of potential revivals of dormant Nintendo IPs, bringing a feeling of hope for people that one day, those old franchises can get sequels like KI: Uprising. I adore that retros have made some Smash fans feel this way.
Retros also have moveset potential that cannot be found in other kinds of Nintendo characters bringing a unique nostalgic flavor and distinction. I speak of retros like Lip the fairy with her flower puzzle abilities and Takamaru the samurai with his Japanese weaponry. Without the retro, Ultimate’s overall list of newcomers loses that special touch of Sakurai magic, with the newcomer variety feeling somewhat lacking as a result. One new retro would have made Ultimate’s newcomer list satisfying enough for me.
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Looking Back on How I Speculated for Smash Ultimate
When I saw the ‘Everyone is Here!’ trailer in Nintendo’s E3 2018 direct for the first time, my mind was blown. As someone that had read a ton of Sakurai interviews for the purposes of Ultimate speculation, I believed Sakurai would go beyond veterans and include 15+ unique newcomers to blow the most hardcore Smash speculators away, given his notable improvement in efficiency in developing unique newcomers over the past four Smash games.
In retrospect, that prospect was ridiculous to me now when considering the number of characters in the roster Sakurai would have to balance carefully and give content for, if the number of unique newcomers went beyond the six he chose for the base game. I rejected the fewer newcomers possibility and Sakurai’s statement of “not many fighters to reveal left”, but not for simple reasons. It goes beyond that, rooting in the beginnings of me speculating for Smash Switch in March 8, 2018.
I originally did not want to speculate at all, being content with my new hobbies of anime and manga. I said that I would be hanging on the sides with speculation this time, not going full-on speculation mode as Smash 4. However, over time, I started to get back in a groove of researching Nintendo franchises, Sakurai interviews, and possible third-party connections that could lead to a character in Smash, I began to enjoy speculating. I was more careful into connecting the dots. I researched in-depth on every possible newcomer candidate, gradually forming those thoughts through discussions on the Smash Switch’s Newcomer Speculation section. My primary reasons for speculating blossomed over time, those reasons being:
1. Speculating in general was a nice exercise of improving my writing skills. At the time of speculating for Ultimate, I was also writing in-depth impressions of anime and manga I finished, analyzing the execution of story, characters, presentation etc. These skills of writing about anime came to use for speculation and I was way better at explaining things than I previously was in Smash 4 speculation times. I greatly enjoyed explaining in-depth on why I believed Tom Nook had a high chance of being in Smash, why I believed Lycanroc had a solid chance of being the Pokemon newcomer, or why I stuck to my belief of Isaac and Captain Toad having a small chance getting in Smash in the Rate Their Chances thread.
2. I wanted to redeem myself for pulling back my Bayonetta prediction last minute, a before she was revealed in Smash 4’s final direct in 2016. I had the strong belief that Bayonetta would get in due to Platinum Games’ close connection to Nintendo, ballot popularity, and the endless amounts of moveset potential that Sakurai could utilize for the character in Smash. I pulled back because I did not have full faith and greatly feared potential ridicule if I ended up being wrong. When it came to Smash Ultimate speculation, I set a new goal of sticking to my beliefs and not following the popular consensus on which newcomer is likely or not.
That belief stayed true to an extent, since I wanted to revise my predictions after the E3 2018 Nintendo Direct. When I chose to redo the predictions, I told myself that it would be the last time I revise them. I stuck with my beliefs and I got rewarded for it. The bold prediction of predicting Simon and Ridley before they were seen as likely at later points of speculation worked in my favor (again, no bragging points for this, haha!). I stuck to my beliefs of Isabelle likely getting in and finally saw the pacifist argument come to a close. My risky prediction of K. Rool actually came true. Those particular newcomer reveals kept me faithful to my predictions. I was on a streak of correct unique newcomer predictions. As the months went by with the streak continuing, I believed that sticking to my gut was the right way to go. It felt like I might finally nail my newcomer predictions this time.
3. The friends I had close bonds with over the course of Smash Ultimate base game speculation. I was following many support threads at the time, speaking openly with supporters of Bandanna Dee, Ashley, Isaac, King K. Rool, Chorus Kids, Lip, Professor Layton, Lycanroc, Sora, Prince Sable, Isabelle, and many other newcomers. I gained closer friendships with many Smashboard users like N3ON, King Sonnn Dededoo, Cosmic77, Pacack, WeirdChillFever, and GoldenYuiitusin over discussing Ultimate speculation. A number of users that closely participated in the Rate Their Chances thread became closer buddies to me. Those friendships eventually expanded outside of Smashboards like mimique’s Discord server.
These three things kept me going as a Smash speculator and made me keep faith in my newcomer predictions. That belief was so strong to the point where I found the possibility of veterans getting in the way of developing more newcomers to be very unlikely. I believed I was in the right path. I even took the risk of betting real money to Cutie Gwen, betting that a Hanafuda character would be in Smash. That pure faith had a big part in being initially disappointed with the November 2018 Smash Direct. I do not regret the time I spent with my friends to discuss Smash though. I would not have enjoyed Smash Ultimate speculation as much if it were not for them. That being said, if there is anything you can learn from my actions, it is that even when you have a multitude of convincing things that drive your beliefs, it is not a guarantee that your faith will lead to an end goal of satisfaction. What you see as ideal and probable to happen in Smash even with solid evidence may not be a part of Sakurai’s creative vision.
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The Downs of my Smash Ultimate Speculation Journey
This section was the hardest to write about. I am going to do my best in explaining the struggles I faced in Ultimate speculation, without sounding like a salty doofus. If I come across that way at some points in this section, I apologize greatly. Ever since Smash Switch’s announcement, I had gradually become more passionate and open-minded about speculation over time. I had a major goal of influencing speculators to get outside the mindset of expecting only ballot newcomers before E3 2018 came. I did heavy research, arguing over a variety of newcomers and their chances of being playable to the best of my ability in the Rate Their Chances and Smash Switch Social thread. Yet, even in finding many speculators I could openly talk to, the community was still certain days prior to the E3 2018 Direct that the ballot would be the only thing that mattered without critically thinking about other factors.
The popular newcomers mindset was further cemented in the community after the Everyone is Here! trailer. At the time, I had somewhat of an emotional breakdown over the direction Ultimate was taking. I was unable to process all the information that I believed this Smash changed speculation for the worst. I took speculation too seriously. That was the first major low-point. After giving it some thought, I wanted to speculate once more with a second newcomer analysis in early July, changing the way I speculated, as well as changing my behavior to be less melodramatic towards things I am wrong about.
I was enjoying speculation again. I grew closer to many newcomer support groups and found more people to discuss Smash speculation in-depth with. At some point, however, I started to feel isolated. The popular newcomers only mindset was still a major belief, and eventually that made me ponder new questions in my mind: “Will the community ever change their mindset on speculation?”, “Will I ever find more people who have the level of passion in speculating as me?”, and “Will I ever find a speculator that is open to many possibilities and willing to take as much risks in predictions as I have been doing?”. I never found those kinds of people around the time and the community did not really change much either. In early August, it got to the point where I moved on to other hobbies I enjoyed (like anime) while waiting for something interesting to happen in the speculation scene.
The August Smash Direct was when more of my unique newcomer predictions had come true with Simon and K. Rool. I felt far more confident about my Skull Kid and Geno predictions with dormant characters being a real possibility and the Moon AT. I stuck to my beliefs closer, yet I still felt isolated. The same questions appeared in my mind again and I took breaks on speculation as I waited for the next newcomer reveal in September. I was more firm on my predictions after I got Isabelle right. It was around that point where I felt confident about my 15+ newcomer predictions, and believed Sakurai’s statement of not many fighters to reveal left to be a tactic that would allow Sakurai to reveal a large bundle of newcomers later.
Then the leak scene came around in October. Vergeben was sure about Incineroar in Smash and the Grinch leak spread like wildfire. I realized the speculation scene was not going to change at that point, and believed in my predictions, alone. When the November Smash Direct came, well, you already know what happened to me when I saw the November direct the first time. This was my second major low-point as a speculator. I went through a myriad of mixed feelings on several things. Neither the side that believed only popular newcomers nor the side that believed the opposite had much of a victory. Newcomer fan bases I cared about lost hope. It was definitely not a pleasant time for me.
In the end, I did not have much influence to change the Smash Ultimate speculation community scene for the better. Now, the speculation community has pretty much dried up, with some waiting for Erdrick to be revealed already. The few hardcore speculators I knew retired, left, or grew tired of speculating. To be honest, I am still willing to speculate DLC newcomers. There is a chance that I could find more open-minded speculators to discuss with. But sadly for me, I have to move on.
I wanted to have the best time in speculating Smash Ultimate’s base game with the community in 2018 before I focused and studied hard for my future career in 2019. Unfortunately, many circumstances regarding speculation, Smash, Sakurai, and the community itself lead to me not having the best experience. That is just how life goes I suppose. It sucks. Still, there are a couple more things that I want to express about Smash before I leave speculation and Smashboards for good. I still have a little more strong passion for Smash left within me!
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Newcomers I Personally Believe Smash’s Roster Needs
I want to use my knowledge of Nintendo and Japanese gaming one more time with this particular topic because it is interesting to talk about. Throughout my year-long research of every potential Smash Bros candidate, I have created my minimum, but definitive list of newcomers that I believe Smash needs to make the roster complete. I want to start this by discussing Nintendo newcomer choices. Out of all of Nintendo characters I researched, the three I list below are the only ones I believe would truly complete the Nintendo all-star line-up. I feel these particular characters have earned their place in Smash due to a large number of strong achievements. I will go over the possible reasons for their exclusion in the base game, as well as speculate what their chances are if they were get in as DLC or the next Smash game.
Tom Nook: Understandably outmatched by Isabelle, in terms of recent significance to the Animal Crossing franchise, to be not be chosen in the small pool of Ultimate’s base game newcomers, Tom Nook is the only significant Animal Crossing character not yet playable in Smash. Even when Isabelle started to become the new star of the AC franchise, Tom Nook still had his fair share of significant roles in later games and still cultivated a large number of fans that loved to depict the character in tax, office, and debt related memes. The merchant is still a widely beloved Nintendo icon who continues to be strongly relevant in the Animal Crossing games. I am personally still baffled that Tom Nook is not playable to this day.
I still believe there is a lot of mainstream appeal to making Tom Nook a fighter that would get the most casual Animal Crossing fans to playing Smash, primarily for the bizarre and hilarious idea of finally beating up the merchant for debt troubles or to assert dominance by playing as the Tom to smack many players with bell bags. Tom Nook’s fighter theme of money for power is clear to me and it can easily translate to a unique play-style. One idea for Tom’s play-style is earning bells when Tom Nook is skillfully hitting opponents. The more bells obtained, the more powerful his special moves become, being able to spend bells for strong, sturdier tools such as a longer lasting recovery or a bigger house that can be spawned on the ground and crush opponents like Villager’s tree.
Tom Nook has many ways he can be unique if he were in Smash, but judging by how in Ultimate’s planning phases Sakurai initially seen Isabelle as an echo and not been able to find the potential and take creative liberty as he did for Rosalina in Smash 4 in, Tom is not an idea I can be excited for anymore when I think critically about the reality of the potential outcome. I thought when Sakurai mentioned the importance of having non-combatant newcomers back in an early Smash 4 interview, he would now be capable of thinking at a more creative level than the past Smash games to be able to come up with fun moveset ideas for Animal Crossing newcomers he planned to add in Ultimate. I overestimated Sakurai’s creative capabilities in that regard.
It seems to me that the thought of echo material for Isabelle became the emphasized thought to Sakurai more than anything else, clouding the possibility of going beyond to make a stand out play-style for the character. The low number of Ultimate unique newcomers planned via base game may have also played a part in limiting creativity, with the selection consisting of multiple ballot suggestions, a new IP character, and the placeholder new generation Pokemon, not giving room for Isabelle to come off as an standout idea worth exploring in the process of elimination to Sakurai. It is a shame because Sakurai could have done more with Animal Crossing newcomers if he thought about Isabelle a little more.
Should Tom Nook be playable in Smash one day, whether it is Ultimate DLC or a new Smash, in Sakurai’s creative hands, I think the most he will be creatively capable of is perceiving Tom as just a potential clone to expand later to distinguish as a semi-clone by using other tools in AC games that are not used by the two Animal Crossing characters in the roster. It is because of how Isabelle’s moveset was done in Smash Ultimate that I cannot passionately want Tom Nook in Smash anymore. Should Tom likely be in as a semi-clone acting as another variation of Villager’s play-style one day, I think most fans would be happy. But for me personally, it would honestly not be a satisfying outcome. It would be the least satisfying way to make one of the most iconic Nintendo characters playable.
Chorus Kids: I am incredibly surprised by the exclusion of Chorus Kids in Ultimate. I thought that the Switch having not the same level of limitations as the 3DS would not only bring back the Ice Climbers, but also re-implement the concept of Chorus Kids made in the Smash 4 planning phases too. Sadly, the most Rhythm Heaven got for representation is a bunch of stickers and music tracks.
The only explanations that could have caused their exclusion might have to do with the franchise’s popularity status in Japan in 2015 or some technical limitations that prevented the Chorus Kids from being developed. Technically speaking, I do not think the character would have faced much issues, considering the simplicity of the character designs. Perhaps the moveset concept of utilizing rhythm and timing for more powerful attacks for a unique play-style did not work well in practicality? I cannot imagine that being the case at all, as it is an idea that I feel is not as complex to implement as integrating Heihachi and Tekken mechanics in Smash.
Considering the other Smash fighters that have moves involving input timing like Wii Fit’s Down-B and Incineroar’s Side-B, I do not think it would be a hard task for Sakurai. Unless, this became a problem in multiplayer, where multiple players that are playing Chorus Kids have to listen to cues to activate the full power of rhythm-based moves and that becoming a potentially frustrating task. Perhpas that is the issue, but it is hard to imagine that being a problem, as there are easy solutions to making that work, such as adding visual effects that indicate timing, like a shrinking enclosing, almost invisible circle in every move that lets you know when to attack when it shrinks to a dot.
Maybe Sakurai only had one new IP newcomer in mind, and chose to add Inklings in Smash Ultimate over Chorus Kids due to the mainstream success of Splatoon, being compared to Rhythm Heaven Megamix’s underwhelming sales performance in Japan in the same year (Megamix had only been localized and released at the West in 2016 to not be a factor for Ultimate’s 2015 project plan)? Maybe the uniqueness Inklings had perhaps struck more of a chord with Sakurai than his old Smash 4 concept of the Chorus Kids?
To be honest, it frustrates me somewhat that the Chorus Kids are not in yet. Rhythm Heaven as a franchise has gained a strong cult following in the West over the years, continuing to stay strongly relevant today with fan projects like Rhythm Reanimate. It has such a dedicated fan base that is as passionate as the MOTHER and Xenoblade fan base. Now in some parts of the Smash community, Chorus Kids is just seen as a joke that should not be in over other fan wants. The Rhythm Heaven franchise has been proven to be worthy of a playable character in Smash 4 through game success and popularity of the DS and Wii iterations, yet it has not happened yet.
I have a small grain of hope that Chorus Kids might be in the Fighter’s Pass due to Reggie’s old Game Awards 2018 statement of DLC fighters being new to the series and the spirit stuff not being an impenetrable wall after looking into several bits of data-mined information. I generally think that all the DLC fighters will be profitable third-party guests that attract new audiences to Smash. I do not think Chorus Kids will be part of it because of that, but who knows?
Dixie Kong: I remember when many supporters had regained hope for Dixie after Isabelle’s reveal opened up the possibility of other semi-clones in the September 2018 Nintendo Direct. Unfortunately, Isabelle was the only character to receive the special semi-clone treatment, while every other new clone was echoed. Dixie Kong’s large amount of votes in the ballot ended up getting the character at most a special nod by Sakurai with the Mii hat. That likely closes the door for Dixie being playable in Ultimate.
It is very weird that Dixie is not in Smash’s roster now, considering the prime timing of Tropical Freeze’s 2014 release that made Dixie a relevant, significant character in the Donkey Kong Country franchise again and her scrapped playable appearance in Brawl. My guess for Dixie not being considered seriously for Ultimate probably lies in Sakurai’s mindset of deciding clones, specifically the first step of the process on deciding whether the character is appropriate for echo treatment. Considering the likely semi-clone plans Sakurai likely sketched for Dixie in Brawl and the distinct body features that make her different from Diddy, there is a real possibility that Sakurai came in conflict and first deemed Dixie Kong not appropriate for echo treatment. Thus, the potential next step of Dixie becoming a semi-clone never passed for Sakurai and his Ultimate project plan.
Realistically, the only way I can see Dixie become playable is if she becomes relevant with a significant role in a new DKC game and maintain strong fan-popularity for a new Smash. That is, if Sakurai has the semi-clone development mindset again with new potential semi-clone candidates not impeding the way for Dixie. The planets would have to align for Dixie to get in. If I were being honest, I would much rather have seen Dixie get the semi-clone treatment and not Isabelle to accompany King K. Rool and complete DKC character representation. Beyond that, I have not much else to say about the character. Dixie is the only remaining significant DKC newcomer not in Smash yet.
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Transitioning to third-party newcomers, I am going to talk less from a speculation standpoint and more of what I want to see happen. I had this thought for a while ever since I finalized my third-party newcomer choices in my second predictions, and I strongly believe that Sakurai should add the remaining gaming icons for the Fighter Pass. If Sakurai is not going to add the remaining Nintendo all-stars in Ultimate, at the very least, add characters from iconic, high-selling franchises such as Frogger, Resident Evil, Kingdom Hearts, and Tekken are from companies Sakurai already has been given permission to use IPs of.
Hell, if Sakurai is going to add third-party characters from franchises whose success roots mostly from Japan such as Erdrick (assuming he happens), he might as well add Monster Hunter and Lloyd Irving too (Though the former is kind of unlikely to happen now, given Ratholos and its role in Ultimate’s base game). Represent every huge Japanese video game franchise that moved the gaming era forward. Ultimate should expand with more fighter passes to make the remaining third-party guests playable before the inevitable licensing nightmare comes for the next Smash game. That is a dream feat that should happen while we still have the dream feat of every Smash veteran returning in Ultimate.
But, it feels likely that Sakurai will be settled and satisfied after the first Fighter Pass has been completed in development. I would not blame Sakurai if he decided to take a long break from Smash for after DLC is done. It would be a warranted move given Sakurai’s huge efforts for Ultimate. But if things are going to end with the first pass, it will be a missed opportunity in my opinion. Sakurai should achieve another dream scenario for Ultimate before he possibly leaves Smash Bros. for good. This kind of roster should happen:
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A Potential Route for a Future Iteration of the Super Smash Bros Series
I want to talk about the potential of a new Smash game. A new Smash sequel would likely never reach the dreamy heights of Ultimate’s roster and probably alienate the fan base should an adjusted roster with a large number of veterans and newcomers cut happen. I personally think the best route a new Smash can go to that could make the franchise refreshing is not by exploring Nintendo characters and gaming icons again. Rather, by exploring characters from other Japanese mediums, specifically characters from anime and manga.
I dabbled around the concept for fun at the start of 2019 after being invested in the Japanese mediums for two years. I grew fonder appreciation for anime and manga over time for the emotional character stories and wacky ideas/concepts used to tell compelling themes and messages. The more I thought about it, the more I loved the idea. I adored the idea of representing more of the Japan media industry via anime and manga characters in Smash, beyond Japan’s gaming icons.
Anime/manga characters have a more to dabble with in terms of moveset potential. They have a whole goldmine and have a high level of distinction that not even third-party characters can provide. Magical girls that kick ass like Nagisa & Honoka from Pretty Cure and Cardcaptor Sakura. Shonen protagonists with bizarre powers and intriguingly complex battle systems like Gon’s Nen abilities and Luffy’s Devil Fruit powers. Mecha fighters like Simon of Gurren Lagann and Shinji Akari of Evangelion that would make R.O.B. **** his pants. Where else in the video game medium would you find famous characters who can turn into an epic titan like Eren Yaeger, a godly martial artist like Goku, or a swift and badass detective like Shinichi Kudo? All of these potential ideas drive my imagination like crazy. It is why I want to see Sakurai do an anime Smash so badly. Like, really REALLY badly!
The major things that would impede the idea from happening are licensing matters and Sakurai’s potential difficulties with incorporating anime/manga characters in Smash. To be honest, I have no idea how collaborations and negotiations happen between anime/manga companies and publishers, contrast to my vast, but limited knowledge of how negotiations works between many Japanese gaming companies. Chances are that it would probably cost a lot more to license the big time popular anime/manga franchises for characters. It would be even harder when considering the potential difficulties of licensing anime OSTs, opening and ending songs to add in an anime Smash.
Regarding Sakurai’s potential difficulties, it is more so from a gameplay and gaming stance. It could take a lot more creative liberties and extensive research to translate anime/manga characters in Smash. Not anime/manga characters can provide a core gameplay mechanic from their franchise that can easily set down a foundation for a unique Smash play-style. I think this way because I get the feeling that Sakurai might be more comfortable with the gaming side than of the anime/manga side, given his history of playing tons of video games in his life. It would take many big steps for Sakurai to be cozy with the idea of an anime Smash.
Even with the major obstacles that could prevent the idea, I think that it is possible, considering Sakurai’s high reputation in the Japanese game industry and Sakurai’s known fondness for uniqueness in characters. Perhaps his reputation will let other Japanese anime/manga companies and publishers, with Sakurai being capable of handling characters in the most faithful ways that could impress them to allow their characters in Smash. Should Sakurai take the potential opportunity, he will have a nearly endless set of characters that I personally believe will fuel his mind with a sparking pool of creative gameplay ideas. If the idea comes ends up too difficult, perhaps Sakurai can simply start out with using Shonen Jump characters, starting with an IP he is comfortable with such as JoJo’s Bizarre Adventure, then expanding with new anime/manga properties from there. I strongly believe an anime Smash would be the ideal and refreshing route for Sakurai to take on for the next game of the franchise.
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These are all of my thoughts. I had a boatload to write about. There may or may not be contradictions and messiness in these thoughts, and I apologize if there are any. I tried my best at remembering as much details of events and interactions of Smash Ultimate speculation community. Feel free to ask me a few questions about Smash speculation and perhaps ask my opinions on other stuff. Although at my current state, I might not be able to answer the questions in the best way. I plan to leave Smashboards for good by the end of May or early June to move on to a new point in my life, so think about the questions carefully.
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