Shai Hulud
Smash Lord
First of all the inspiration for this thread was Wesley's thread. for mathematically calculating a tier list based on Phanna's matchup chart. See this thread for the basic premise, mathematical explanations, etc.
"But we already have low tier rankings!"
Yes, but if you consider only matchups between low tiers the rankings are quite different.
Assuming an initially even distribution of low tier characters in low tier tournaments, the rankings are
1) Ness : 6.285714285714286------19.3044549705395
2) Pikachu : 5.714285714285714------11.271079197600537
3) Y. Link : 5.642857142857143------10.53789813239882
4) Link : 5.5------9.211513337141515
5) Yoshi : 5.428571428571428------8.612306549375957
6) Mr. G&W : 5.357142857142857------8.052078022984318
7) Luigi : 5.285714285714286------7.528292231182244
8) Zelda : 4.999999999999998------5.752418144841862
9) DK : 4.928571428571429------5.378224690161977
10) Roy : 4.928571428571429------5.378224690161977
11) Mewtwo : 4.285714285714286------2.9358603495706523
12) Kirby : 4.0------2.24331041184089
13) Bowser : 3.8571428571428568------1.9609492821427412
14) Pichu : 3.785714285714285------1.8333899900570236
The left number indicates a character's "power level," a kind of "absolute" ranking. Strictly speaking, it's the expected Phanna matchup average against randomly selected characters given the constraints of the character populations. The number on the right predicts the distribution of characters (as a percentage) in low tier tourneys, assuming the distribution follows a similar pattern as for regular tourneys, which it may not. If redistribution in subsequent tourneys follows in a similar fashion, then for a large number of iterations we get the following stable rankings:
As you can see these rankings are significantly different from those in the regular tier list. I hope this gives some kind of idea of character potential in low-tier tourneys.
NOTE: These rankings assume the accuracy of the Phanna chart. Don't tell me Ness is higher than he should be. He probably is, but voice your concerns in Phanna's thread. Also, the formula used for predicting player redistribution is inherently arbitrary. My only goal was to get a good spread, where more players use higher ranked characters than lower ranked characters. However, this kind of model may not be accurate for low tier tourneys, as character decisions are probably focused less on maximizing win potential and more on other elements like "fun" than in regular tourneys.
Edit: As you can see from the image, some of the power levels are quite close to each other meaning their ordering is not very meaningful. We could break the list into tiers as follows:
God Tier
1) Ness
Top Tier
2) Pikachu
High Tier
3) Yoshi
4) Y. Link
5) Link
6) Mr. G&W
7) Luigi
Middle Tier
8) Zelda
9) DK
Low Tier
10) Roy
11) Kirby
12) Mewtwo
Bottom Tier
13) Bowser
14) Pichu
Six tiers is probably overkill for 14 characters, but this is where the clear boundaries between power levels are. Rankings within tiers are less significant than the rankings of the tiers.
"But we already have low tier rankings!"
Yes, but if you consider only matchups between low tiers the rankings are quite different.
Assuming an initially even distribution of low tier characters in low tier tournaments, the rankings are
1) Ness : 6.285714285714286------19.3044549705395
2) Pikachu : 5.714285714285714------11.271079197600537
3) Y. Link : 5.642857142857143------10.53789813239882
4) Link : 5.5------9.211513337141515
5) Yoshi : 5.428571428571428------8.612306549375957
6) Mr. G&W : 5.357142857142857------8.052078022984318
7) Luigi : 5.285714285714286------7.528292231182244
8) Zelda : 4.999999999999998------5.752418144841862
9) DK : 4.928571428571429------5.378224690161977
10) Roy : 4.928571428571429------5.378224690161977
11) Mewtwo : 4.285714285714286------2.9358603495706523
12) Kirby : 4.0------2.24331041184089
13) Bowser : 3.8571428571428568------1.9609492821427412
14) Pichu : 3.785714285714285------1.8333899900570236
The left number indicates a character's "power level," a kind of "absolute" ranking. Strictly speaking, it's the expected Phanna matchup average against randomly selected characters given the constraints of the character populations. The number on the right predicts the distribution of characters (as a percentage) in low tier tourneys, assuming the distribution follows a similar pattern as for regular tourneys, which it may not. If redistribution in subsequent tourneys follows in a similar fashion, then for a large number of iterations we get the following stable rankings:
As you can see these rankings are significantly different from those in the regular tier list. I hope this gives some kind of idea of character potential in low-tier tourneys.
NOTE: These rankings assume the accuracy of the Phanna chart. Don't tell me Ness is higher than he should be. He probably is, but voice your concerns in Phanna's thread. Also, the formula used for predicting player redistribution is inherently arbitrary. My only goal was to get a good spread, where more players use higher ranked characters than lower ranked characters. However, this kind of model may not be accurate for low tier tourneys, as character decisions are probably focused less on maximizing win potential and more on other elements like "fun" than in regular tourneys.
Edit: As you can see from the image, some of the power levels are quite close to each other meaning their ordering is not very meaningful. We could break the list into tiers as follows:
God Tier
1) Ness
Top Tier
2) Pikachu
High Tier
3) Yoshi
4) Y. Link
5) Link
6) Mr. G&W
7) Luigi
Middle Tier
8) Zelda
9) DK
Low Tier
10) Roy
11) Kirby
12) Mewtwo
Bottom Tier
13) Bowser
14) Pichu
Six tiers is probably overkill for 14 characters, but this is where the clear boundaries between power levels are. Rankings within tiers are less significant than the rankings of the tiers.