It's kind of pathetic that this board is so dead that my old, out of date topic is at the top here. I suppose this is because all relevant discussion has really moved to the G&W Skype group, where we now know that my previous topic is outdated but not all of you go there (why), so here's how more experience on my end and fervently increased discussion amongst G&W players has changed things up.
Also, please always remember that in making these lists, I consider, to the best of my knowledge, theoretically perfect play where players always fight optimally, and that I discuss what this entails with active G&W players. I consider whether characters have guaranteed responses to certain moves, the efficiency of kill methods vs. various characters, guaranteed setups into various hits, how badly characters can get edgeguarded by G&W (sorry Luigi), etc. You are free to inquire about any of these and I strongly recommend you do so if you are confused.
FUNDAMENTALLY UNWINNABLE (The Dastardly Four)
Diddy
Sheik
Fox
Sonic
SLIGHT DISADVANTAGE
Rosalina
Duck Hunt
Yoshi
Bowser
(Dark) Pit
ROB
Falcon (when will Falcon players step up to this MU? lol)
Villager
G&W (yes)
NEUTRAL
Junior (MATCHUP TBD)
Link
Toon Link
ZSS
Kirby
Pikachu
Greninja (MATCHUP TBD)
Olimar
Pac Man
Marcina
Roy
SLIGHT ADVANTAGE
Lucas
Samus
Mega Man
Palutena
Mario
Luigi
Peach
Wario
DK
Zelda
Ganon
Robin
DeDeDe
MK
Little Mac
Falco
Charizard
Lucario
Ness
WFT
Dr. Mario
Shulk
Mewtwo
Mii Fighter
Mii Gunner (MATCHUP TBD)
Mii Swordsman (MATCHUP TBD)
Ryu
FUNDAMENTALLY UNLOSEABLE
Ike
Jigglypuff
CHANGES SINCE LAST MU LIST, OTHER NOTES
Rosalina moves from FUNDAMENTALLY UNWINNABLE into SLIGHT DISADVANTAGE
Why? Because it is now known that Luma can be safely damaged with bair and dtilt windbox (made safe via pushback) if a jab ender is anticipated, allowing G&W to temporarily eliminate or discourage his main obstacle in this matchup. He still has to deal with her move priority and stalling, but that's a much simpler struggle.
Sonic moves from SLIGHT DISADVANTAGE into FUNDAMENTALLY UNWINNABLE
Why? After extensive testing versus this character, we have seen that he is capable of punishing G&W's air game purely off of reaction (a la Fox), and also can get guaranteed setups from spindash with proper stalling (best non-telegraphed response G&W has is dash attack, which clanks and lets Sonic get first hit afterwards with utilt).
Duck Hunt moves from TBD into SLIGHT DISADVANTAGE
Why? We had long assumed that edgeguarding Duck Hunt is really easy when it actually isn't because of how he can go low and deploy his can just above the ledge. Given that the neutral game is very tedious and both characters tend to kill at high percents, we have no choice but to consider this a bad matchup in light of these facts.
Yoshi moves form NEUTRAL into SLIGHT DISADVANTAGE
Why? You can predictively roll Yoshi's fair as it activates and it will still hit you. There is no solid, non-preemptive option that G&W seems to have against this move.
Palutena moves from NEUTRAL into SLIGHT ADVANTAGE
Why? Though the footsies game is tedious, a proper air game can get past her jab, and the fact that Autoreticle can instantly fill bucket while making it reasonably strong is a great discouragement from any Palutena player trying to zone.
Pikachu moves from TBD into NEUTRAL
We had assumed this was correct for a while, and Regi's recent play at EVO confirms it. He certainly could have done better and won the match.
Marcina moves from SLIGHT ADVANTAGE into NEUTRAL
Why? It was previously the case that dash attack was a guaranteed reactive response to Marth fairing on shield. With the new patch (1.10 as of this post) buffing its landing lag, this is no longer the case, and the matchup is more drawn out in play length.
Mega Man moves from NEUTRAL to SLIGHT ADVANTAGE
Why? We initially didn't anticipate how using bucket liberally can discourage Mega Man from jab spamming and even forward smashing by allowing us to counter-zone him.
Samus moves from FUNDAMENTALLY UNLOSEABLE into SLIGHT ADVANTAGE
Why? While the knowledge that putting offense pressure on her is a constant necessity holds true, OOS Up B can actually force us to pick and choose openings. This move can be baited, and it's still a good matchup, just not a great one.
Lucas is added into SLIGHT ADVANTAGE.
Really, just a worse Ness, lol. Everything he does other than nair is weaker and more punishable. Weaker kill throws help as well.
Roy is added into NEUTRAL.
His fastfalling, his fast kill moves that require less precision than Marth, the presence of counter, and decent spacing tools let this be a 50-50. Thank god he's edgeguardable.
Ryu is added into SLIGHT ADVANTAGE.
All of his specials are readily punishable, forcing him to play footsies with G&W's disjoints. Strong ftilt and h.Shoryuken are threats, but they can't define a matchup for him, especially without the pressure of a good throw game to back them up. Edgeguardable with proper practice and reads.
- Mario may be moving into Neutral soon. I need more testing on this, but his bair may be unexpectedly good on G&W's low-recovering Up B.
- I've seen the argument from fellow G&Ws that the new stagelist and throw game buffs in Kirby's favor may necessitate him being a bad matchup, and that something similar applies to moving Charizard up into Neutral. While they are certainly better, those same stages tend to favor G&W's movement and pressure options, so these changes are not really the kind that change anything other than matchup numbers, which I have no interest in providing at such an early stage in this game.
EDIT: I forgot the new characters as well. Lucas is favorable, Roy is neutral, and Ryu is favorable.
Also, please always remember that in making these lists, I consider, to the best of my knowledge, theoretically perfect play where players always fight optimally, and that I discuss what this entails with active G&W players. I consider whether characters have guaranteed responses to certain moves, the efficiency of kill methods vs. various characters, guaranteed setups into various hits, how badly characters can get edgeguarded by G&W (sorry Luigi), etc. You are free to inquire about any of these and I strongly recommend you do so if you are confused.
FUNDAMENTALLY UNWINNABLE (The Dastardly Four)
Diddy
Sheik
Fox
Sonic
SLIGHT DISADVANTAGE
Rosalina
Duck Hunt
Yoshi
Bowser
(Dark) Pit
ROB
Falcon (when will Falcon players step up to this MU? lol)
Villager
G&W (yes)
NEUTRAL
Junior (MATCHUP TBD)
Link
Toon Link
ZSS
Kirby
Pikachu
Greninja (MATCHUP TBD)
Olimar
Pac Man
Marcina
Roy
SLIGHT ADVANTAGE
Lucas
Samus
Mega Man
Palutena
Mario
Luigi
Peach
Wario
DK
Zelda
Ganon
Robin
DeDeDe
MK
Little Mac
Falco
Charizard
Lucario
Ness
WFT
Dr. Mario
Shulk
Mewtwo
Mii Fighter
Mii Gunner (MATCHUP TBD)
Mii Swordsman (MATCHUP TBD)
Ryu
FUNDAMENTALLY UNLOSEABLE
Ike
Jigglypuff
CHANGES SINCE LAST MU LIST, OTHER NOTES
Rosalina moves from FUNDAMENTALLY UNWINNABLE into SLIGHT DISADVANTAGE
Why? Because it is now known that Luma can be safely damaged with bair and dtilt windbox (made safe via pushback) if a jab ender is anticipated, allowing G&W to temporarily eliminate or discourage his main obstacle in this matchup. He still has to deal with her move priority and stalling, but that's a much simpler struggle.
Sonic moves from SLIGHT DISADVANTAGE into FUNDAMENTALLY UNWINNABLE
Why? After extensive testing versus this character, we have seen that he is capable of punishing G&W's air game purely off of reaction (a la Fox), and also can get guaranteed setups from spindash with proper stalling (best non-telegraphed response G&W has is dash attack, which clanks and lets Sonic get first hit afterwards with utilt).
Duck Hunt moves from TBD into SLIGHT DISADVANTAGE
Why? We had long assumed that edgeguarding Duck Hunt is really easy when it actually isn't because of how he can go low and deploy his can just above the ledge. Given that the neutral game is very tedious and both characters tend to kill at high percents, we have no choice but to consider this a bad matchup in light of these facts.
Yoshi moves form NEUTRAL into SLIGHT DISADVANTAGE
Why? You can predictively roll Yoshi's fair as it activates and it will still hit you. There is no solid, non-preemptive option that G&W seems to have against this move.
Palutena moves from NEUTRAL into SLIGHT ADVANTAGE
Why? Though the footsies game is tedious, a proper air game can get past her jab, and the fact that Autoreticle can instantly fill bucket while making it reasonably strong is a great discouragement from any Palutena player trying to zone.
Pikachu moves from TBD into NEUTRAL
We had assumed this was correct for a while, and Regi's recent play at EVO confirms it. He certainly could have done better and won the match.
Marcina moves from SLIGHT ADVANTAGE into NEUTRAL
Why? It was previously the case that dash attack was a guaranteed reactive response to Marth fairing on shield. With the new patch (1.10 as of this post) buffing its landing lag, this is no longer the case, and the matchup is more drawn out in play length.
Mega Man moves from NEUTRAL to SLIGHT ADVANTAGE
Why? We initially didn't anticipate how using bucket liberally can discourage Mega Man from jab spamming and even forward smashing by allowing us to counter-zone him.
Samus moves from FUNDAMENTALLY UNLOSEABLE into SLIGHT ADVANTAGE
Why? While the knowledge that putting offense pressure on her is a constant necessity holds true, OOS Up B can actually force us to pick and choose openings. This move can be baited, and it's still a good matchup, just not a great one.
Lucas is added into SLIGHT ADVANTAGE.
Really, just a worse Ness, lol. Everything he does other than nair is weaker and more punishable. Weaker kill throws help as well.
Roy is added into NEUTRAL.
His fastfalling, his fast kill moves that require less precision than Marth, the presence of counter, and decent spacing tools let this be a 50-50. Thank god he's edgeguardable.
Ryu is added into SLIGHT ADVANTAGE.
All of his specials are readily punishable, forcing him to play footsies with G&W's disjoints. Strong ftilt and h.Shoryuken are threats, but they can't define a matchup for him, especially without the pressure of a good throw game to back them up. Edgeguardable with proper practice and reads.
- Mario may be moving into Neutral soon. I need more testing on this, but his bair may be unexpectedly good on G&W's low-recovering Up B.
- I've seen the argument from fellow G&Ws that the new stagelist and throw game buffs in Kirby's favor may necessitate him being a bad matchup, and that something similar applies to moving Charizard up into Neutral. While they are certainly better, those same stages tend to favor G&W's movement and pressure options, so these changes are not really the kind that change anything other than matchup numbers, which I have no interest in providing at such an early stage in this game.
EDIT: I forgot the new characters as well. Lucas is favorable, Roy is neutral, and Ryu is favorable.
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