Match-up Ratio Discussion Thread

[Llumys]

Instead of waiting for every single character to be discussed for over a week, I think it would be a good idea to determine an approximate match-up ratio for each character. It is definitely beneficial to have an update-to-date list for match-up charts and the like. I'm sure there will be disagreements, but I expect them to be stated well in order to promote productive discussion. Anyway, I'm providing the base list; it's a consensus between Hilt and myself.


Legend:
Large advantage
Advantage
Small advantage
Even
Small disadvantage
Disadvantage
Large disadvantage


Meta Knight - 35:65
Snake - 50:50
Wario - 45:55
Falco - 50:50
Diddy Kong - 45:55
King Dedede - 60:40

Marth - 35:65
Mr. Game & Watch - 55:45
Pikachu - 55:45
Pikmin & Olimar - 50:50
Ice Climbers - 40:60
R.O.B. - 55:45
Kirby - 60:40

Lucario - 60:40
Zero Suit Samus - 50:50
Toon Link - 50:50
Pit - 55:45
Donkey Kong - 50:50

Peach - 40:60
Luigi - 35:65
Fox - 55:45
Wolf - 50:50
Sonic - 55:45
Sheik - 50:50

Bowser - 60:40
Zelda - 70:30
Pokémon Trainer - 60:40
Ike - 60:40

Lucas - 55:45
Mario - 60:40
Ness - 55:45
Yoshi - 45:55
Samus - 60:40

Jigglypuff - 65:35
Captain Falcon - 70:30
Link - 65:45
Ganondorf - 80:20

 

[DanGR]

Though I haven't played any outstanding Marth players yet, I don't think I'll ever be able to understand why it's such a terrible matchup until I do.

I always annihilate the Marth players I play in tournament just because I know the matchup so well, having about 4-5 of them in city I live in, and having studied the matchup extensively once everyone began fearing him so much. ;/

That said, it may possibly be my best matchup. It feels around even or Oli's very slight advantage to me right now, but then again I'm better than most down here sooo I'm really unsure. ;/

I can't understand Snake being an even matchup. One grab and you should die. That or if he knocks you offstage it's pretty dang hard to get back to a neutral position again.

Zelda... what does she have to pull the ratio back down to 65:35????

edit: Samus' matchup seems really off.

So does Mario's and King Dedede's if Seibrik's little trick actually works. I haven't seen it in action though.

 

[Llumys]

Theoretically Snake does counter us, but I don't think enough Snake mains have mastered the infinite tech-chase yet. Regardless, if we take said theoretical infinite into account, I think the Ice Climbers match up would be far more in their favour.

I'd like to see you play against a good Marth. I'm skeptical, but I'd be glad to see an effective strategy for handling Marth. If you could manage to put it into words for discussion, that would be great. From what I see, though, Marth has enough tools to counter is well.

Zelda was better than 65:35 before? That's understandable. I'll change it right away.

Regarding Samus, from my experience, it seems like 60:40 at best. It's probably just personal, though. I'm hearing that it's probably a lot more in our favour. I'll change it as well.

What trick? I can only think of one recent Dedede trick, which is the up tilt out of his neutral special.

 

[Zori]

We can whistle out of the "trick" so its not much of a problem, if seems as the metagame moves forward we ended up with a lot more bad match ups, we used to believe it was 3-4 bad match ups now its much more

 

[BOB SAGET!]

jesus christ, thats one negative matchup list.

 

[DanGR]

We take into account what is possible and realistic- NOT what most people are doing.
In that regard I feel Snake has the advantage because people have proven that it's possible to infinite Oli with dthrow. *shrugs*

Marth, let's see...

F-air isn't safe upon shield block if it's used while rising or advancing. This and a combination of good fsmash usage REALLY limits his option select after jumping towards you. If he doesn't want to risk getting a pikmin pluck canceled (or you don't even have to dash back and do that if he jumped from far enough out)-> f-smash to the face he'll usually have to either double jump, attack your shield with an ADVANCING aerial, or aim to hit the pikmin with an aerial, which is unreliable.

Those are his best options after jumping towards you. Keep them in mind and punish anything else, patiently. Look for openings.

If he uses an f-air while rising on your shield you can sometimes upsmash out of shield with a yellow while his hurtbox is still extended forward a little bit. If you powershield it you're able running upsmash out of shield. If you think he'll do another aerial you can short hop a whistle out of shield (take the small amount of damage a second aerial will most likely do), and then f-air him back to put him in a tough position high in the air or offstage. If he doesn't use the second aerial you can simply fall back to the ground unharmed or f-air him anyways if he's open.

N-air is good. He can short hop an n-air and fast fall during the latter hit of it. From there he's in a pretty good position if you shielded AND YOU HAVE THE MINDSET OF RETALIATING AT THAT POINT. Simply put, don't. At this point either keep shielding if you're sure he won't try to grab you, roll away if it's safe, and/or basically try to get back to a neutral state and start over. Unless you can get a hard read he's won this little spacing battle. Learn what you can shieldgrab at what distances and you'll be good to go.

Let's see... fsmash is just incredible against Marth in general. Use it a bunch, lol. Umm, the threat of upb keeps Marth close to the ground. If he full jumps anything you can short hop an upb at him, and punish any airdodges with a dsmash. (Dsmash is amazing at killing Marth if you can find places to use them.)

Focus on punishing his landings, which naturally conditions him into attacking your shield more with unsafe stuff. Try working around with that...
______________________

Zelda and Samus- don't change the ratios just because I said so. >_>
I was just pointing out that it was strange for me to see. Zelda's ratio really dumbfounded me, though. It's unwinnable for her.

I'd rather not post the trick I saw for D3 against Oli in this thread. <_<
It's not inhale->uptilt. It was in a D3 thread a while ago and they erased it all to keep it a secret, haha.
All who want to hear about it can pm me, lol.

 

[Denti]

I like this thread btw, good idea, it must happen.


I don't pay too close attention to the MU statistics with my oli because i like to approach in my way. This is how my OLI would rate the MU statistics, critisize and such.


Meta Knight - 40:60 MKs dont have much other than waiting for an opening and keeping you up in the air, and thats a stage factor. Tornado doesn't bother me too much, if i can shield the tornado right I punish.

Snake - 50:50 I've been waiting for someone else to say this

Wario - 50:50 i dont get how it would be slight wario's ADV? I know Dair beats up smash but i pivot grab them most of the time instead. even MU

Falco - 40:60 this CG makes me lose huge match control, and their F smash is so fast and so huge it gobble me up most of the time. to add on phantasm is a great get away move that allows him to out camp OLI some more, if oli starts doing well then falco backs away further for a long range camp fest then when OLI approaches he side Bs away and repeats... so hard for me, i lose against almost every falco, i need help if it is even lol

Marth - 35:65 I've been waiting for someone else to say this

Mr. Game & Watch - 50:50 GaW has too much priority for me, idk how we would have an ADV, someone explain plz. GaW travels the air far and with priority. he can bail my pivot grabs.

Ice Climbers - 40:60 I've been waiting for someone else to say this

Donkey Kong - 55:45 Oli has the ADV. just camp imo. DK must approach, then up smash or grab. DK does kill early though and have a good back air knock off.

Luigi - 40:60 I still dont see the huge disadvantage.. i see luigi has an ADV but nothing that bad. i pivot grab bunches so he never gets me with the B down thing across the stage. and if he doesn't have that then what does he have? air juggle?

Wolf - 55:45 Blaster *****, F smash spaces out our air approach. ive always had trouble beating wolfs unless i had a purple right when i need it, and the blaster is too much trouble for me to filter out my pikmin line to at least 2 or more purples.

Sheik - 55:45 OLIs ADV. shiek is too fast falling and dies too early.

Yoshi - 50:50 I usualy can get 3 or ore purple filtered out then purple **** approach.

 

[Llumys]

@ Denti
You seem to agreeing with the list. There's a few minor differences, but I think some of them are due to lack of experience.

@ Dan
Thanks for input on Marth, Dan. I need all the help I can get. I think I may be too intimidated.

@ Bob
Our average is still positive, so it's not that bad.

 

[Fino]

Though I haven't played any outstanding Marth players yet, I don't think I'll ever be able to understand why it's such a terrible matchup until I do.

I always annihilate the Marth players I play in tournament just because I know the matchup so well, having about 4-5 of them in city I live in, and having studied the matchup extensively once everyone began fearing him so much. ;/

I thought the EXACT same thing... and then I played "mike the haze" <.<
The biggest thing I learned from playing him is out easy it is to react to olimar's grab. He would run right for me, and just wait until I grabbed... and then he'd dolphin slash, and other stupid stuff like that. lol.

Theoretically Snake does counter us, but I don't think enough Snake mains have mastered the infinite tech-chase yet.

Regarding Samus, from my experience, it seems like 60:40 at best. It's probably just personal, though. I'm hearing that it's probably a lot more in our favour. I'll change it as well.

it's not an infinite... it's a tech chase -_-''

Falco - 40:60 this CG makes me lose huge match control, and their F smash is so fast and so huge it gobble me up most of the time. to add on phantasm is a great get away move that allows him to out camp OLI some more, if oli starts doing well then falco backs away further for a long range camp fest then when OLI approaches he side Bs away and repeats... so hard for me, i lose against almost every falco, i need help if it is even lol

Mr. Game & Watch - 50:50 GaW has too much priority for me, idk how we would have an ADV, someone explain plz. GaW travels the air far and with priority. he can bail my pivot grabs.

Wolf - 55:45 Blaster *****, F smash spaces out our air approach. ive always had trouble beating wolfs unless i had a purple right when i need it, and the blaster is too much trouble for me to filter out my pikmin line to at least 2 or more purples.

So he has a CG that racks some damage.... big deal? Falco's CG to spike should never kill. Whether you DI, tether momentum cancel, or just whistle the dair... it's not a big problem at all

G&W's priority is very regionally based, you just need to know where to attack through. Last time we talked about G&W, most people didn't know our fsmash beats turtle, and usmash beats nair. There's lots of other things too... you just have to learn the spacing

if you're having trouble with wolf... stop playing wifi

Focus on punishing his landings, which naturally conditions him into attacking your shield more with unsafe stuff. Try working around with that...

-_-'' dan... NO! lol
Every option you have to "punish" his landings can be countered easily with 1 of 3 things. rising Nair, dancing blade, and dolphin slash. He'll dolphin slash on reaction if he sees a grab come out. Rising nair is kinda situational, he's more likely to dancing blade, and if he catches you shielding the first slash of dancing blade he's guaranteed a grab.


~Fino

 

[Cook]

Why do ICs have the advantage? They don't have a safe approach (you can running up-smash through de-synched blizzard) and they get ***** by Oli when they're separated.

 

[Llumys]

@ Cook

Blizzard wall. You can't up smash it if they're doing it properly.

@ Fino

I call it an infinite 'cause it's not that difficult to react to. xD I'm aware it's a tech-chase, though.

 

[Cook]

@ Cook

Blizzard wall. You can't up smash it if they're doing it properly.

@ Fino

I call it an infinite 'cause it's not that difficult to react to. xD I'm aware it's a tech-chase, though.

Yeah you can. I've done it in tournament to Hylian, plus in friendlies to other ICs. It doesn't LOOK like it should work because it looks like the blizzard should be hitting Olimar, but it doesn't if you time it right.

 

[Llumys]

Well, you seem pretty sure of yourself. I'll test it out.

 

[DanGR]

I'll take your word for it, Fino. You've played him. I haven't.

 

[Tin Man]

I agree with Dan on DK being 55-45 our favor

MK isnt that bad, 40-60: So long as we stay on the ground, long enough, we are fine, we can camp him since he has no projectile, then react to his approach. We have an answer for tornado, and well pretty much everything else, getting down isn't that hard if ur above the stage, but when off stage, its practically over, but possible, and we kill him at like 80%

Marth is 40-60: We can kill pretty early, and as long as we keep in on the edge, it isnt to bad for us, we can kill pretty well, we got enough range to pivot grab and then fthrow twice to the edge, and keep him there long enough.

 

[Mr. Game and Pichu]

How come we have a disadvantage when it comes to peach? We can throw pikmin at her to rack up damage and kill her off with a smash, no?

 

[Denti]

not guna lie, my MU numbers are probably because i do play loads of wifi XD


if any number change for sure it's snake. snake is a much better character but OLI still has the ADV kinda. if anyone understand what i mean when i say that, try and find a better way to word it. Snake is a very very good and powerfule character but olimar has a adv. hmmm i suck so hard at wording.

 

[Fino]

Dan, I get where you're coming from though.
I mean, when you play marth after marth after marth after marth... and the ONLY one to do well against you (by well, I mean... go-**** get ****ing ***** fino <.<) is tied for best in the nation, it kinda makes you wonder. lol.
I'm not that great, so that's probably why I lost to mike hazy... the marth MU could very well be more in our favor than some of us say.


~Fino

 

[Llumys]

Someone handle Mr. Game and Pichu, I'm too hostile.

 

[Sky Pirate]

Be nice, Llumys.
Peach can easily float through our weak pocket, can beat out almost all of our attacks with Dair, gimps us easily, pikmin don't stick because of her stupid aerials, her jab comes out too quickly, etc etc.
Play a half-decent Peach to better understand why. ^^;

 

[BOB SAGET!]

I disagree with the diddy kong ratio. I thought we'd have a slight advantage because we are better with banannas than him.

Ike 60-40..........I say maybe that's a bit too even. I say 65-35 because we just have the tools to counter ike pretty well. He has a large amount of priority but he easily can be grabbed. Fair isnt reliable because we can easily shieldgrab it or fsmash after lag. We force him to approach. His best options are jab combo and nair. He has a poor recovery too.

 

[Fino]

60:40 seems about right for ike imo.
We counter ike about as hard as marth coutners us.


~Fino

 

[Llumys]

Ahem,

I don't think there's any major disagreements. Correct me if I'm wrong, but I don't think there's much adjusting to do. Perhaps +/- 5 in a few areas.

Anyone want to summarize the conflicts?

 

[professor mgw]

Bob saget: stop playing wack ikes.

Olimar vs ike is defenetly 60:40, a smart ike can probably make it 55:45 ( I make all my assumptions off of offline matches, so that its more accurate)

I disagree with oli vs IC's. Should be 55:45 IC's favor. I mean olimar has the nesscary tools to handle to people at the same time when you seperate them... Simple as that

Olimar vs peach: come on you guys just aren't trying hard enough on this MU, properly spaced pikmin throw, a lot of F-smashes, Up-smashes F-airs and grabs puts peach in a bad position. She has no killing moves, except for while she's in the air (she shouldn't be killing you on the ground if your spacing right)

 

[Llumys]

professor mgw: Stop playing wack Peaches.

 

[professor mgw]

professor mgw: Stop playing wack Peaches.

So Llumys what makes this match-up so bad besides our moves being out prioritized by hers?

 

[Johnny Citrus]

Being out-prioritized isn't a big deal lol?

 

[Fino]

Ahem,

I don't think there's any major disagreements. Correct me if I'm wrong, but I don't think there's much adjusting to do. Perhaps +/- 5 in a few areas.

Anyone want to summarize the conflicts?

None of the other olimar's have really posted their opinions... probably for the same reason I haven't.
When Dan, Draco, hilt, ect get in on this... then I would say that. I haven't posted my list, and I strongly disagree with a lot of what's up there. I'm just too lazy/busyyy


~Fino

 

[BOB SAGET!]

So my opinion doesn't matter. HUH? I suck? I don't know what I'm saying? Is that right Fino?

EDIT: Fino Dan did get on this. See the first page. HE wrote a lot of stuff on the marth MU.

My List: Meta Knight - 35:65
Snake - 50:50
Wario - 45:55
Falco - 50:50
Diddy Kong - 55:45
King Dedede - 60:40

Marth - 35:65
Mr. Game & Watch - 55:45
Pikachu - 60-40
Pikmin & Olimar - 50:50
Ice Climbers - 40:60
R.O.B. - 55:45
Kirby - 60:40

Lucario - 60:40
Zero Suit Samus - 50:50
Toon Link - 50:50
Pit - 55:45
Donkey Kong - 60-40

Peach - 40:60
Luigi - 35:65
Fox - 60-40
Wolf - 50:50
Sonic - 55:45
Sheik - 50:50

Bowser - 60:40
Zelda - 70:30
Pokémon Trainer - 60:40
Ike - 65-35

Lucas - 55:45
Mario - 60:40
Ness - 55:45
Yoshi - 45:55
Samus - 60:40

Jigglypuff - 65:35
Captain Falcon - 70:30
Link - 65:35
Ganondorf - 80:20


I havent changed much, I don't have as much tourney experience as u guys yet. Though i do have experience on some MUs. the ones that i have no experience with i left it untouched aswell as the ones i agree with.

 

[Fino]

For arguments sake...


Meta Knight - 45:55
Snake - 50:50
Wario - 55:45
Falco - 50:50
Diddy Kong - 55:45
King Dedede - 60:40

Marth - 40:60
Mr. Game & Watch - 55:45
Pikachu - 55:45
Pikmin & Olimar - 70:30
Ice Climbers - 55:45
R.O.B. - 60:40
Kirby - 60:40

Lucario - 55:45 - 50:50
Zero Suit Samus - 55:45
Toon Link - 55:45
Pit -
Donkey Kong - 55:45

Peach - 45:55
Luigi - 40:60
Fox - 55:45
Wolf - 55:45
Sonic - 60:40
Sheik -

Bowser - 60:40
Zelda - 65:35
Pokémon Trainer
Squirtle - 55:45
Ivysaur - 55:45
Charizard - 65:35
Ike - 60:40

Lucas - 55:45
Mario -
Ness -
Yoshi - 55:45
Samus - 60:40

Jigglypuff - 60:40
Captain Falcon -
Link - 60:40
Ganondorf -

Ones left blank I either don't care about or don't really have a strong feeling about.

I greened your list up a bit llumys... infact... I think I changed just about every ratio ._.


~Fino

 

[Llumys]

I can see those happening, but I want to see more people's lists.

Also, Peach has the advantage on us for several reasons, all of which are obvious.

 

[Fino]

I can see those happening, but I want to see more people's lists.

Also, Peach has the advantage on us for several reasons, all of which are obvious.

Just barely though, all of her advantages have easy to use counter tactics. It's just outside of our regular play. Peach has the advantage... but not by much.


~Fino

 

[DanGR]

Dan, I get where you're coming from though.
I mean, when you play marth after marth after marth after marth... and the ONLY one to do well against you (by well, I mean... go-**** get ****ing ***** fino <.<) is tied for best in the nation, it kinda makes you wonder. lol.
I'm not that great, so that's probably why I lost to mike hazy... the marth MU could very well be more in our favor than some of us say.

Yeah, I understand. xD
_____________

I disagree with a lot of the ratios presented... but who's to say someone doesn't have the same ideas about the matchups even if their ratios are different? I mean, a 65:35 to someone may very possibly be 60:40 to another. Those slight numerical differences don't really matter.

I thought Marth, Samus, and Mario seemed odd, so I commented about those.
And I've got some exp. against Marth so I wrote a small writeup about it too. xD

Snake... I really don't know, lol. I just remember hearing about some players being able to tech-chase forever so why not consider it a realistic possibility, and therefore something to consider about the matchup?... Though RichBrown seems to disagree, I doubt he's played the few players that can do it really well. What do I know. xD

I haven't played any really good Samus players yet so I can't say for sure, but it seems like we outclass her in just about every category of play.*shrugs*

 

[Tin Man]

olimar ditto is 50:70 >.>

 

[professor mgw]

Just barely though, all of her advantages have easy to use counter tactics. It's just outside of our regular play. Peach has the advantage... but not by much.


~Fino

Exactly.

My list:

(Olimar's ratio is the left)

Mk 65:35
Snake 55:45
Wario 55:45
Falco: 50:50
Diddy kong 55:45
King dedede 60:40
Marth 30:70
Mr.game&watch 45:55
Pikachu 55:45
Olimar 50:50
Ice climbers 45:55
R.O.B. 45:55
Kirby 50:50
Lucario 55:45
Zero suit samus 50:50
Toonlink 55:45
Pit 55:45
Donkey kong 60:40
Peach: 45:55
Luigi 35:65
Fox 55:45
Wolf 55:45
Sonic 60:40
Sheik 55:45
Bowser 65:35
Zelda 60:40
Pokemon trainer 55:45
Ike 60:40
Lucas 60:40
Mario 55:45
Ness 60:40
Yoshi 55:45
Samus 60:40
Jigglypuff 60:40
Captain falcon 70:30
Link 65:35
Ganondorf 80:20

 

[Fino]

Yeah, I understand. xD
_____________

I disagree with a lot of the ratios presented... but who's to say someone doesn't have the same ideas about the matchups even if their ratios are different? I mean, a 65:35 to someone may very possibly be 60:40 to another. Those slight numerical differences don't really matter.

I thought Marth, Samus, and Mario seemed odd, so I commented about those.
And I've got some exp. against Marth so I wrote a small writeup about it too. xD

Snake... I really don't know, lol. I just remember hearing about some players being able to tech-chase forever so why not consider it a realistic possibility, and therefore something to consider about the matchup?... Though RichBrown seems to disagree, I doubt he's played the few players that can do it really well. What do I know. xD

I haven't played any really good Samus players yet so I can't say for sure, but it seems like we outclass him in just about every category of play.*shrugs*

it would be un-winable for samus if she didn't have zair. i'm on my wii typing this cause i left my laptop at home :-:


~Fino

 

[RichBrown]

When Ally comes over to the WC for SCSA I'll MM him and let you know if the Dthrow techchase is anything to fear. Meanwhile I have a winning record against every single so cal snake (except Hall lol)

 

[Llumys]

We definitely are not 65:35 against Meta Knight.

 

[Fino]

I agree with MGW... so I edited my chart

For arguments sake...


Meta Knight w/o nado - 65:35
Meta Knight - 45:55
Snake - 50:50
Wario - 55:45
Falco - 50:50
Diddy Kong - 55:45
King Dedede - 60:40

Marth - 40:60
Mr. Game & Watch - 55:45
Pikachu - 55:45
Pikmin & Olimar - 70:30
Ice Climbers - 55:45
R.O.B. - 60:40
Kirby - 60:40

Lucario - 55:45 - 50:50
Zero Suit Samus - 55:45
Toon Link - 55:45
Pit -
Donkey Kong - 55:45

Peach - 45:55
Luigi - 40:60
Fox - 55:45
Wolf - 55:45
Sonic - 60:40
Sheik -

Bowser - 60:40
Zelda - 65:35
Pokémon Trainer
Squirtle - 55:45
Ivysaur - 55:45
Charizard - 65:35
Ike - 60:40

Lucas - 55:45
Mario -
Ness -
Yoshi - 55:45
Samus - 60:40

Jigglypuff - 60:40
Captain Falcon -
Link - 60:40
Ganondorf -

Ones left blank I either don't care about or don't really have a strong feeling about.

I greened your list up a bit llumys... infact... I think I changed just about every ratio ._.


~Fino

 

[Llumys]

Lmao.

The nado isn't the main problem, to be honest.