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Masquerade Mafia / Mafia Wins!

OrangeXhtml

Smash Apprentice
Joined
Oct 17, 2015
Messages
148
I agree that they aren't identical and see your logic behind the IC, but at least we now know that the other group will be put into rare faction instead of continuing to another day. I feel like two 2v1s as opposed to LyLo is a boon for town, though, as we have one confirmed scum in each group and it narrows down things greatly.
 

OrangeXhtml

Smash Apprentice
Joined
Oct 17, 2015
Messages
148
T Twitchybanana you said you'd respond to the thread within a few hours. Could you please give us an update as to how that response post is progressing? I have a fairly good feel for where Corps is at, but you still seem to be a bit behind. Also, considering that there has to be one scum out of the remaining 3 not in this phase, who do you think is the most likely to be scum if I flip scum, and who do you think is the most likely to be scum if Corps flips scum?
 

Corps phoenix

Smash Journeyman
Joined
Oct 17, 2015
Messages
257
I agree it'll be likely that there will be another phase from that page. It is an interesting setup. I mean I'm glad it came to this, because for some reason it seemed dead for the two phases but now It's getting interesting.
 

Twitchybanana

Smash Cadet
Joined
Oct 17, 2015
Messages
70
1. You agreed with some of my sentiments on Orange. 2. If he's townie, then it just means he didn't play it correctly and needs to learn from his mistakes. Basically, he should have been less emotional and more rational, and should have made that observation earlier than just omgus Prota. (Even if what he said after the fact was true, it doesn't look that way to me and others)
Some, yes. Your second point is true, while irrelevant.

I still think you are scum. Your tone has changed drastically, from being stubborn and not listening, to having a conversation with me and actually talking it out with me. Saying that you know your actions were scummy and that you wouldn't do them if you didn't claim cop, is very concerning. You got too comfortable as a fake town pr and you took advantage, and now I've seen through you. If you are town, don't play that way as it seems fake. Even if you disagree there is some degree of validity to what I'm saying against you. Others have agreed. There must be something. Finally, using that to be lazy and leave your vote on Orange isn't helping the town move forward, and makes me wonder if you care about town winning at all.
Yeah, that's what happened. Ya got me. What actually happened is that I resigned myself to what the day's course of events would be: I thought orange would be lynched, then I would be NK'd with no bodyguard left to save me. Because I assumed I would die, I focused on getting my opinions out in the open rather than generating new content. In retrospect I could have played much better, but what can ya do?

We both just did a 180 because of mod-confirmed info that one of the three of us is scum.
Fair enough, I suppose.

It was a reasonable, round estimate for the minimum number of posts for thread control (seeing as it is a bit less than twice what the most frequent poster had D1).
I'd disagree there. I'd say thread control is more measured in who spurred/is guiding the current conversation, but I see what you mean.

The reason for the sudden shift is already posted in #450. I agree that Phoenix's arguments aren't all well-grounded and if he didn't do so much to help town this phase I would say that he's trying to push a lot of slots out of desperation to look like he's scumhunting (if I recall correctly, his first vote on me and his first vote on BarMaven were about 3 minutes apart), but I see literally no incentives for being so active as scum and wanting to increase thread activity. You could argue that he wanted to do that to look townie, but I'm pretty sure that if activity didn't increase significantly, the thread would have just died and scum would have won anyways. The only possibility I could think of is if he were an indie slot and felt he needed complete thread control, but even if that is true, town will autolose if mafia isn't lynched this phase.
Ironically, this is part of my reasoning for believing you are scum.

You being genuine or not depends upon if you actually misinterpreted the role PM or if you used that as an excuse to justify a complete 180 on Polish.

Also, it could have been an attempt to gain a third ally. If Polish were a less experienced player, he could have interpreted the correct role read as a confirmed townie and the three of you could have steamrolled everyone in your way the rest of the game. 3 would be majority today (and close to majority yesterday), so worst-case scenario is that you would get lynched and bring Polish down with you, getting far too close to endgame with a scumslot still left. Keep in mind this is still completely hypothetical, but it's still a possibility that I'm considering right now.
An entirely inaccurate possibility, but a possibility nonetheless.

1. It's either wrong or right. Why would you be willing to let a slot die on reasoning you think may or may not be right?
Here's my reasoning: Orange flips scum,. We killed a scum, I'm NK'd, you're basically cleared, and town goes about its merry way scum hunting and winning. Orange flips town. We get a rather large amount of information, you, who I at the time believed was scum upon an orange town flip, are lynched, and town goes about its merry way. I am, of course, NK'd. It all comes back to the fact that your arguments were plausible, and I wanted to see if they were correct or not.

Again, if you knew it was a suspicious, why do it when you were claimed cop?
Again, with my cop claim, I resigned myself to the, admittedly incorrect, assumption about how the rest of the day would play out.

Plus, you claiming showed your true scumness. Sometimes people become more involved or feel invincible, so they do more things to help town because they know everyone else knows, they can trust that person. Yet you took advantage of it. You got lazy, and stayed mobile. You voted Orange with Ycare of the world of his flip. Again, it shows you don't care to help move town forward. You claiming helped you get pressure off, and then you did the opposite of what a town wincon would ask of you: You got lazy. No scumhunting, and wanting to survive = scum.
First, I did scum hunt after my claim. Do you not remember the large dialog that took place between myself and others? Do you not understand why I voted orange in the face of an imminent NL? Secondly, I don't know why you think that me having a busy schedule is a scum tell. You assume malicious intent, as if I'm cackling evilly as I type "sorry, on mobile" from my multi trillion dollar supercomputer. Imo, anything inside the game is fair game to lie about. Once you start incorporating deceit regarding real life into your crucial play, you're being a ****.

2. Well then there is probably a reason they are read as town isn't there? Even you read him as town. Yet you are letting Barman off the hook. What's your read on him? What did you think of his recent reads? What do you think of being on two wagons and being wrong twice?
I think the initial push on Barman was rather nonsensical. However, I don't like the way he's responded to pressure, and his being on two incorrect wagons isn't a good thing, but it doesn't make him scum. I'd put him at soft scum lean, but that will change significantly depending on how this phase plays out.

3. I didn't mean the beginning of D2. Your push on Mist wasn't really a push. Plus your argument against him was faulty.
My argument was wrong, yes. Multiple peoples' arguments have been wrong this game. Some of your pushes have been mod confirmed wrong. The entire mist wagon was mod confirmed wrong. That's how mafia works. Can you define push? Because to me, push means the application of pressure, either with the goal of getting a lynch or evoking a reaction, to a given slot. I'm pretty sure that was a push, dude.

I'm a bit curious as to who people think the scum in the other pool is. You stated your opinions on that in the wagon post, and I agree that if Twitchy flips non-cop (if he's lynched), I'd say Polish is confirmed scum, but I think he's town otherwise. I agree that Aqua is likely the indie based on his play so far (if there is an indie), leaving Barman as scum, but if there isn't an indie, the second scum could be either of Barman/Aqua. I'm curious what happened to Twitch responding and am eager to hear his insight on the current situation.
Could you explain your reasoning behind this? I think I understand it, but I'd like to hear it from you.

T Twitchybanana you said you'd respond to the thread within a few hours. Could you please give us an update as to how that response post is progressing? I have a fairly good feel for where Corps is at, but you still seem to be a bit behind. Also, considering that there has to be one scum out of the remaining 3 not in this phase, who do you think is the most likely to be scum if I flip scum, and who do you think is the most likely to be scum if Corps flips scum?
If you flip scum, (meaning Corps is town, more importantly) I'd be inclined to look at Maven. If Corps flips scum, I'd look at Aqua. I'm posting this now so that y'all know I'm here, but I'll respond to Corps' questions about the mist wagon now.
 

Twitchybanana

Smash Cadet
Joined
Oct 17, 2015
Messages
70
Morosemist: Polishnapkin, OrangexHtml, Barman89, Aqua
OrangexHtml: Corps Phoenix, Twitchybanana

Not Voting: Morosemist

Working from my viewpoint, which means I'm confirmed town.

Orange Wagon: Wait, I just had a thought. Typing as my though process progresses, so bear with me. We know there are two scum left. One of them is either orange or Corps. Morose was town and not voting. He was the only not voting player. If we assume, for a moment, that Corps is town, then that means both scum were on mist. (If Orange flips scum I'd also look at polish, fwiw). Of course, y'all think I'm scum. One of you knows you're town, one of you will claim to be town. Lets look at this from each player's assumed town PoV. This is interesting to me.

Corps PoV: Corps is town. I'm scum. That means one on one off.

Orange PoV: Orange is town. One on one off, obviously.

That was fun to think about, but not particularly productive. Anyways, back on track.

Orange Wagon: Myself and Corps. Likely both town.

Mist Wagon: Polish could be town, could be an Orange scum partner. Orange: probably scum. Barman: Other possible orange partner. Aqua: town, unless corps flips scum. Then he's Corps' partner.
 

Corps phoenix

Smash Journeyman
Joined
Oct 17, 2015
Messages
257
Yes. Now which version do you believe is the most likely from your PoV and why? Although, yours is hard to follow without colors and such. Just so know.
 

OrangeXhtml

Smash Apprentice
Joined
Oct 17, 2015
Messages
148
I'd disagree there. I'd say thread control is more measured in who spurred/is guiding the current conversation, but I see what you mean.
I completely agree with this, but a post number is usually indicative of who has been guiding the conversation (unless that person has been posting useless, noncommittal garbage and hasn't done anything good with their slot).
Ironically, this is part of my reasoning for believing you are scum.
I expected as much because the PoE works both ways.
Could you explain your reasoning behind this? I think I understand it, but I'd like to hear it from you.
Sure. My opinion on Polish hasn't changed since I posted my read list and I will continue to think such unless you flip non-role cop. If that happens, I will instantly assume that Polish is scum and would recommend that he be lynched immediately; town would have no reason to corroborate a fake claim, and it would be far too risky as scum to assume a role of someone who you aren't aligned with. From PoE, I would look at Aqua and BarMaven, who I thought were both null/scum or null slots yesterday. If there is an Indie it's likely Aqua because BarMaven didn't perform any night actions N1, and if there isn't an Indie, I think that either slot could be scum. I haven't had time to 1-on-1 with either of them recently, so I'm not sure which one I would pick in a scenario where you flip cop and there is no Indie.

Also, I don't see a win-state for Indie on the Wiki sheet and can't think of a possible scenario for Indie to win (unless it goes back to a normal day/night phase for a day or two, which would be kinda weird), so I'm thinking that there isn't one.
 

Twitchybanana

Smash Cadet
Joined
Oct 17, 2015
Messages
70
Of you/orange, I think Orange is scum. That means both on the morose wagon. Orange partner... Idk, but likely Maven or Polish.
 

Corps phoenix

Smash Journeyman
Joined
Oct 17, 2015
Messages
257
Pick one. Who would you think would be his partner and why? Don't give me an either or. Imagine if you had to find his partner the next phase. You'd have to decide then.
 

Twitchybanana

Smash Cadet
Joined
Oct 17, 2015
Messages
70
I would lean towards Maven, simply because Orange happily contributed to the Mist lynch, after Mist pushes Maven.

But there's a reason I've been giving you an either or. I don't bloody well know.
 

Twitchybanana

Smash Cadet
Joined
Oct 17, 2015
Messages
70
Of course, you are now going to claim that this is more evidence of my partnership with Polish, because I chose maven over him, right?
 

Corps phoenix

Smash Journeyman
Joined
Oct 17, 2015
Messages
257
No, I just wanted a hard stance. Plus, that's wifom. I wouldn't decide just on that, I wouldn't factor it in at all. I'd look at his and Polish's play. I always default to their play, and not what their buddy said, because scum would say things to confuse town.

I do think Maven would be scum with you or Orange. (Unless you flip non-cop)
 

Corps phoenix

Smash Journeyman
Joined
Oct 17, 2015
Messages
257
If you flip mafia goon, then there would be no way you'd know Polish was vt without him being privy to your fake claim. Therefore Maven wouldn't be your buddy.
 

OrangeXhtml

Smash Apprentice
Joined
Oct 17, 2015
Messages
148
I would lean towards Maven, simply because Orange happily contributed to the Mist lynch, after Mist pushes Maven.
If I were scum, do you really think that I would try to lynch Mist because I was afraid of his push on Maven? Everyone who was active in-thread knew how garbage his push on Maven was.

The reasons I voted Mist were his refusal to consider alternate PoVs because of his tunneling, he went completely inactive for a few days before deadline, he contributed literally nothing after that one post on D1, he wasn't willing to move on beyond that point and seemed to be slowing down the thread by bringing us back to D1 content instead of analyzing stuff from that phase, and even if he wasn't scum and got in a 3-man situation with Barman and a scum, he would have probably voted Barman and let scum win EZ. Not only was he not contributing to conversation and by far the scummiest slot in the game at that point, but he was also becoming more and more dangerous to town as the numbers grew smaller.
 

OrangeXhtml

Smash Apprentice
Joined
Oct 17, 2015
Messages
148
Anyways, I'm off to bed. Good night, Twitchy and Phoenix, I'll read what you guys post in the morning.
 

Corps phoenix

Smash Journeyman
Joined
Oct 17, 2015
Messages
257
Some, yes. Your second point is true, while irrelevant.
Not at all. It was relevant as an example so you could understand my thought process. I'm not bringing it up as a point against him, as I believe he is the townie from the both of you.

Yeah, that's what happened. Ya got me. What actually happened is that I resigned myself to what the day's course of events would be: I thought orange would be lynched, then I would be NK'd with no bodyguard left to save me. Because I assumed I would die, I focused on getting my opinions out in the open rather than generating new content. In retrospect I could have played much better, but what can ya do?
Yes, which was lazy and scummy. The right action would be 1). Not voting who you thought I was wrong on, and vote someone else. That's all I'll have to say.

Fair enough, I suppose.
I wonder why you didn't come to that conclusion earlier?

Here's my reasoning: Orange flips scum,. We killed a scum, I'm NK'd, you're basically cleared, and town goes about its merry way scum hunting and winning. Orange flips town. We get a rather large amount of information, you, who I at the time believed was scum upon an orange town flip, are lynched, and town goes about its merry way. I am, of course, NK'd. It all comes back to the fact that your arguments were plausible, and I wanted to see if they were correct or not.
Here's the thing though. That's not valid reasoning if you aren't sure if Orange will flip scum, and you think my argument against him was really really bad, then saying if he'd flip town that you'd want me to die next. That would be setting up a line of mislynches.

First, I did scum hunt after my claim. Do you not remember the large dialog that took place between myself and others? Do you not understand why I voted orange in the face of an imminent NL? Secondly, I don't know why you think that me having a busy schedule is a scum tell. You assume malicious intent, as if I'm cackling evilly as I type "sorry, on mobile" from my multi trillion dollar supercomputer. Imo, anything inside the game is fair game to lie about. Once you start incorporating deceit regarding real life into your crucial play, you're being a ****.
If someone says they are mobile I don't automatically assume they are stalling. But if they post multiple times without producing, I may assume they are stalling if it seems like it. People do it. Notice how I myself have said I have been mobile yet I tried to give some content while doing so. You, posted once as mobile and didn't come back until after Morose was lynched. (Correct me if I'm wrong)

Bottom Line: You didn't even try. Do you want to win? Do your actions line up with winning for town? Tell me how they do.

I think the initial push on Barman was rather nonsensical. However, I don't like the way he's responded to pressure, and his being on two incorrect wagons isn't a good thing, but it doesn't make him scum. I'd put him at soft scum lean, but that will change significantly depending on how this phase plays out.
You don't factor in his not being present the whole phase except for his apology post and deadline?

My argument was wrong, yes. Multiple peoples' arguments have been wrong this game. Some of your pushes have been mod confirmed wrong. The entire mist wagon was mod confirmed wrong. That's how mafia works. Can you define push? Because to me, push means the application of pressure, either with the goal of getting a lynch or evoking a reaction, to a given slot. I'm pretty sure that was a push, dude.
Basically, I feel you didn't know who to push, since you didn't even answer to me who you wanted to push. Then after Polish posted his Morose push, you suddenly posted your big wall and weak vote on Morose. It just seems fishy. Not that I think it makes it more likely you and Polish are a team. To me it seems you are trying to set him up.

---

I won't be walling any further, don't want to go in circles. I think I have argued this extensively.
 

Corps phoenix

Smash Journeyman
Joined
Oct 17, 2015
Messages
257
I don't think it was just Morose though. Alot of people stuck with their reads stubbornly without any desire to compromise. That's why the Morose lynch went through, people just plopped on their votes and then he got quick hammered. (By Barman/Aqua)

We all need to improve on compromising, even though it's hard not to get your primary suspect lynched. Good night Orange. I might sleep soon too.
 

Corps phoenix

Smash Journeyman
Joined
Oct 17, 2015
Messages
257
Not really, I think I went over all I could. I am leaning toward Twitch. Don't think there is much else to argue.
 

OrangeXhtml

Smash Apprentice
Joined
Oct 17, 2015
Messages
148
Not really, I think I went over all I could. I am leaning toward Twitch. Don't think there is much else to argue.
I agree. Do you think we should give the phase another 24-48 hours in case anyone finds something to talk about (there's not much sense in keeping the phase open and making the next group wait to participate if conversation will just continue to be dead like it seems to have been over the past 22 hours), or do you think we should wait until the end of the 7-day phase?
 

Corps phoenix

Smash Journeyman
Joined
Oct 17, 2015
Messages
257
I say only give it 24-48 hours, otherwise we are just dragging it when we clearly (with additional hours) seem to not have anything else to say. Some people like to drag it all the way until Deadline yet that's when there are more people and there are slots that have yet to contribute, and people want to wait it out to read them. We are a small group and I think we have talked extensively with each other, and have no one else to wait for and nothing else that really needs to be spoken about. I would go even as far to say that midnight of tomorrow would be a good goal if you want to give a day wait.
 

Twitchybanana

Smash Cadet
Joined
Oct 17, 2015
Messages
70
If you lynch me, town loses. I'm willing to go full defense here/just answer questions or whatever for the next few hours if you people are willing to actually reconsider and move forward.
 

Corps phoenix

Smash Journeyman
Joined
Oct 17, 2015
Messages
257
Simple. Answer Orange's previous question to you, and any questions I have asked you in my previous post. Tell me why you should be trusted.
 

OrangeXhtml

Smash Apprentice
Joined
Oct 17, 2015
Messages
148
I'm off to bed. If conversation starts back up I'd be happy to wait until closer to deadline to end the phase, but if the thread hasn't progressed by the time Friday morning (2 mornings from now) rolls around, I'll probably place my vote.
 

Corps phoenix

Smash Journeyman
Joined
Oct 17, 2015
Messages
257
I'm ready to end this. Waiting any longer is extending the inevitable. Nothing else to say.
 

Corps phoenix

Smash Journeyman
Joined
Oct 17, 2015
Messages
257
For real. I assume you are town simply because you wanted to get the decision right. Otherwise please don't break my heart and turn out to be scum.

Twitch scum = BarmanUK scum.

Not Polish. I think Twitch was trying to set him up.

Plus BarmanUK lurked an entire phase. Basically.

I don't care what meta you have Aqua. Stop being stubborn and look at his actions here. Plus I hear he lurks as scum anyway so take that into account.
 

OrangeXhtml

Smash Apprentice
Joined
Oct 17, 2015
Messages
148
For real. I assume you are town simply because you wanted to get the decision right. Otherwise please don't break my heart and turn out to be scum.

Twitch scum = BarmanUK scum.

Not Polish. I think Twitch was trying to set him up.

Plus BarmanUK lurked an entire phase. Basically.

I don't care what meta you have Aqua. Stop being stubborn and look at his actions here. Plus I hear he lurks as scum anyway so take that into account.
 

Corps phoenix

Smash Journeyman
Joined
Oct 17, 2015
Messages
257
People, please read and build off my #452.

Also, mass claim. We started it already. Good luck. I will be going to sleep.
 
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