Laundry's Mini Mafia actually hosted by Gheb | Day 3

[JTB]

IC?What is that?

IC stands for Inexperience Challenged, which is basically an experienced person in a game of new players to guide them through the game and act as a mentor. RR and I are fulfilling those roles this game while actively playing as well.

 

[#HBC | Red Ryu]

Points I Want to make.

Be careful of how many votes are down, a day will end when a majority is reached.

Second us to be active in questioning and trying yo figure people out. Make sure you are actively trying to ask people questions so you can determine if they are scum or town.

 

[#HBC | Red Ryu]

I suspect Luigi is mafia.
He seems very anxious to stop any lynching.As mafia,he can kill someone every night.If he does this,he can avoid getting killed while doing away with all the townies using nightkill.
As for my vote on Ryu(Inu),it was impulse.Also,his two different usernames confuesed me.

Interesting but given I go to epicmafia sometimes fur sandbox myself, I think his mindset might not be far off.

Unless you play in competitive play there. They pretty try to follow the Power Roles.

 

[Luigi#1]

Well,I don't think your logic is flawed.I don't even think your logic is wrong.You make a good point.But,as mafia,no lynch would result in removing two townies,giving the nightkills from the 2 mafias,while keeping the mafias safe.

Also,in regards to my votes,I am new to mafia,and I was confused by Red Ryu's different names,and decided to retract my vote therefore,as I was confused at the time.
And,indeed,your statement also was a good point in providing reason for the removal of my vote.On further reflection,though,I realized you could be mafia,given your statements.

Yeah, but by day 2 we still have a nightkill and a mislynch. So yeah. I do think you are inno, however so yeah.

 

[RosalinaSGS]

I think we should lynch based off a parity argument. (Parity is even/oddness) As we have an odd number of people now, that means (assuming the mafia isn't blocked on any nighttime), every daytime we will have an odd number of people. Then, near the end of the game, it gives us a greater chance of winning, since the mafia must outnumber us, and may not have equal numbers as us. Thus, we should lynch to maintain this advantage, however slight it is. If we do not lynch, then the next day, although we may have slightly more information, we have a considerably greater risk of losing, as there exists a 4/6 chance of hitting an innocent. Should this happen, then we are guaranteed to lose, as the next day there would be 2 mafia and 2 innocents. Thus, in terms of statistics, I think we should lynch.

Therefore, I propose a lynch of Luigi, mostly due to his flawed analysis of the chances. Although it is true that on each respective day, those odds do appear daunting, in total, there is a chance of 3/7 of us being guaranteed to lose (3/5 x 5/7) this is significantly less than the 4/6 should we not lynch. So, he could have done this deliberately in an attempt to mislead us. However, even if he has not, I have no better reason to suspect anyone else.

Vote: Lynch Luigi#1

 

[#HBC | Red Ryu]

@ JTB being honest here I have no scum reads. what do you think as a fellow Ic about this?

aka I scum at reading new players.

 

[~ Gheb ~]

Votes need to be posted in bold letters.

 

[Luigi#1]

I think we should lynch based off a parity argument. (Parity is even/oddness) As we have an odd number of people now, that means (assuming the mafia isn't blocked on any nighttime), every daytime we will have an odd number of people. Then, near the end of the game, it gives us a greater chance of winning, since the mafia must outnumber us, and may not have equal numbers as us. Thus, we should lynch to maintain this advantage, however slight it is. If we do not lynch, then the next day, although we may have slightly more information, we have a considerably greater risk of losing, as there exists a 4/6 chance of hitting an innocent. Should this happen, then we are guaranteed to lose, as the next day there would be 2 mafia and 2 innocents. Thus, in terms of statistics, I think we should lynch.

Therefore, I propose a lynch of Luigi, mostly due to his flawed analysis of the chances. Although it is true that on each respective day, those odds do appear daunting, in total, there is a chance of 3/7 of us being guaranteed to lose (3/5 x 5/7) this is significantly less than the 4/6 should we not lynch. So, he could have done this deliberately in an attempt to mislead us. However, even if he has not, I have no better reason to suspect anyone else.

Vote: Lynch Luigi#1

Then an lynch.
Then a kill.
3/5 for lynching an inno.
In here we are screwed, chances are with mafia.


Then a maf lynch.
Then a kill.
1 mislynch left.
Used on villager.
Next day, 1/2 chance of getting it right.
Half the chance of getting it right.


Maf lynch.
Then a kill.
1 mislynch left.
Used on maf.
Yeah this could happen. But how likely is that.


Villager lynch.
Kill.
Lynch a maf. (unlikely, but say it happens)
Kill.
3 left, 1 maf.
Half the chance of getting it right AGAIN.

Vs.


No lynch.
Kill.
2 maf, 4 villagers.
Lynch needed.
Villager lynched.
Game over.


No lynch.
Kill.
2 maf, 4 villagers.
Maf lynched.
Half chance of getting it right next day.


Well, looking at that, it does seem a random lynch is better.
I'm not going to count the double maf lynch, as that is super unlikely.

So game over and half chance.
vs.
2 half chances and a probable game over.

It seems as though random lynching does have a slight edge.
We really need a tracker to do their work if we want to win this.

Well I'm used to playing the epic mafia games, so maybe forum games work differently? I dunno, that's what we normally do over there.

 

[JayTheUnseen]

I see the point on random lynch.But as Luigi said,it's a big risk.We'd be left with only 2 townies if a mis-lynch + mafia kills.
However,the jailer and tracker could help prevent this.

But,if we don't do a random lynch,all 3 remaining townies would have to agree on who was mafia to get a lynch.And if they conclude this incorrectly(which the mafia could 'help' with,by also voting) it's gameover.(Unless tracker/jailer stops them,but it would be too late anyway(2 townies vs 2 mafia.)

However,this is just talking about the worst outcomes possible.Tracker could figure how a mafia-kill,and then lynch him,or we could guess mafia correctly,etc,ect.
It all depends on the facts at the time.

 

[Luigi#1]

This is really a tough game. Random lynching and no lynching are both close to equal. And I have 2 votes on me. Come to think of it, I don't know at all. Killing a town will screw us, but not killing at all leaves us at 4/6 chance. Every option leaves a different chance of getting maf. Really liking forum maf.

 

[JayTheUnseen]

Yeah,I thought it was silly at first,now I see that as long as people post,things get interesting fast.

 

[Sarki Soliloquy]

Well,I don't think your logic is flawed.I don't even think your logic is wrong.You make a good point.But,as mafia,no lynch would result in removing two townies,giving the nightkills from the 2 mafias,while keeping the mafias safe.

Also,in regards to my votes,I am new to mafia,and I was confused by Red Ryu's different names,and decided to retract my vote therefore,as I was confused at the time.
And,indeed,your statement also was a good point in providing reason for the removal of my vote.On further reflection,though,I realized you could be mafia,given your statements.

I'm pretty sure the mafia can't get 2 nightkills on 1 night. They must agree which out the 5 town to take out on 1 night,

I think we should lynch based off a parity argument. (Parity is even/oddness) As we have an odd number of people now, that means (assuming the mafia isn't blocked on any nighttime), every daytime we will have an odd number of people. Then, near the end of the game, it gives us a greater chance of winning, since the mafia must outnumber us, and may not have equal numbers as us. Thus, we should lynch to maintain this advantage, however slight it is. If we do not lynch, then the next day, although we may have slightly more information, we have a considerably greater risk of losing, as there exists a 4/6 chance of hitting an innocent. Should this happen, then we are guaranteed to lose, as the next day there would be 2 mafia and 2 innocents. Thus, in terms of statistics, I think we should lynch.

Therefore, I propose a lynch of Luigi, mostly due to his flawed analysis of the chances. Although it is true that on each respective day, those odds do appear daunting, in total, there is a chance of 3/7 of us being guaranteed to lose (3/5 x 5/7) this is significantly less than the 4/6 should we not lynch. So, he could have done this deliberately in an attempt to mislead us. However, even if he has not, I have no better reason to suspect anyone else.

Vote: Lynch Luigi#1

As for lynch priority, if you wanted to control the number of players from going even, then lynching someone we suspect as mafia might fair better for us. Although, wouldn't this mean the Jailer should abstain from preventing a D1 nightkill? If we strike a townie, then we still outnumber mafia. But this means D2 will be decisive in if a townie is protected from nightkill, then we have one more night to strike mafia.

Luigi#1 is reading town to me ATM. He's making good points in favor for town strategy.

Vote: CyberHyperPhoenix

He's been keeping a very low profile, probably to avert suspicion. Even if this is his first time playing, just randomly voting me without leads has no excuse for his play history. The way he quoted himself to justify this seems sleazy.

 

[CyberHyperPhoenix]

^ Quite frankly I don't mind if you vote for me. I shouldn't have done that in the first place anyway >_>

 

[CyberHyperPhoenix]

Also on the whole low profile thing, its really a matter of not knowing what the hell to say...

 

[JayTheUnseen]

Just try posting your thoughts,like what you think about the points Luigi#1 and RosalinaSGS made,or if you think something done or said was note worthy,point it out.

 

[CyberHyperPhoenix]

Problem is its my first time playing this sort of thing and, I don't see any thing note worthy to point out.....

Also, why aren't people taking into account that we have a town Jailer? I mean there is always the off chance that they Jail a Mafia scum....

 

[Luigi#1]

Just try posting your thoughts,like what you think about the points Luigi#1 and RosalinaSGS made,or if you think something done or said was note worthy,point it out.

If you mean pointing out a soft claim, don't do that. Players soft for a reason.

 

[JayTheUnseen]

A soft claim?

 

[Luigi#1]

A soft claim?

When someone hints at being a certain role.

 

[JayTheUnseen]

OK.I was referring to anything suspicious,though.

 

[RosalinaSGS]

VOTE: LUIGI#1

 

[RosalinaSGS]

@ Captain Hotcakes, Although it is true that a jailer could allow there to be an even total number of people, it is nevertheless still desirable. By having an extra innocent, on the turn when we would have died previously, we nevertheless would still die, as the mafia would tie in number with us, so they would still win. So, jailer should still attempt to prevent mafia kills, as if he prevents 2 kills, we are given an extra day on which to lynch/ make decisions/ gather information. So the jailer definitely should try to prevent kills.

 

[RosalinaSGS]

Problem is its my first time playing this sort of thing and, I don't see any thing note worthy to point out.....

Also, why aren't people taking into account that we have a town Jailer? I mean there is always the off chance that they Jail a Mafia scum....

Whilst there is a slight chance, this is a very unpredictable and chancy affair. In order to have the greatest chance of winning, we should assume a worst case scenario when making major decisions such as lynch or no lynch, as they are quite unlikely to affect the circumstances, but if they do, it will definitely be for our benefit.

 

[RosalinaSGS]

Guys, do not claim anything yet, until you get information. Right now, it would be ridiculous to do so, as even a soft claim could paint a target on you for the mafia.

 

[RosalinaSGS]

We have more of a chance of lynching a townie than lynching a mafia. 71% chane of lynching a townie. Statistics.
Though maybe that's a thing only done on epic mafia? I know you almost always no lynch on the first day there. I guess if a maf tries to claim a role that they don't have, and the real one objects. we can lynch between the claims so that even if we lynch the wrong person then we can lynch the other the next day. Of course, this can't be done as hastily with 5 or less people, as if we vote wrong we lose.

To your questions.
1.) I played several games on "EpicMafia" and the only differences I see so far is that's these are WAAAY longer. A game on epicmafia is up to like, 30 minutes.
2.) We hope the maf gives a clue.

Just a quick question, by several, approximately how many do you mean? 5, 10, 20?

 

[RosalinaSGS]

Actually, on second thoughts
VOTE:CyberHyperPhoenix

I have based my change of decision partly off Hotcake's analysis, but more off the inherent loss we would experience should they in fact be innocent. While Luigi is analysing circumstances and statistics incompletely, he has taken a clear and systematic approach to his lynch/no lynch decision, using sound reasoning. In addition, this does lead me to believe he may be innocent. Phoenix, on the other hand, is not contributing anything, and has merely liked a couple of posts. He has voted without any analysis at all, just taking a hunch, which could quite easily kill us.

 

[RosalinaSGS]

Edit: (on last line) just voting randomly, which could quite easily kill us.

 

[RosalinaSGS]

Also, I have a couple of very weak reasons not to lynch any of the others just yet

Luigi&Hotcakes: I have reason to believe they may be innocent.
JTB and ryu: They have experience with forum mafia and are probably valuable assets.
Jay: I am not certain as to his alliance, but he has not displayed any suspicious behaviour.

Keep in mind those are very weak arguments, mostly just hunches. Nevertheless, they are the only things I have to base my decision off of right now.

If you have anything you could contribute to these assessments, please do so.

 

[~ Gheb ~]

Votecount coming later today.

 

[CyberHyperPhoenix]

Screw this, here is my stance on the whole thing,
On the one hand, Lynching will probably give us a higher chance of ending up getting us a mis-lynch and down another from a night kill, meaning the odds will be at 2/3 and quite frankly I'm not really down for that.

On the other hand, we still have that slight chance of Lynching a Mafia goon/cop, but the chances of that happening are slim as it is anyways.

In my opinion, the best case scenario is that we don't lynch and the Town Jailer and Tracker hopefully pick out the right people and we get more information for the next Day and we can make more accurate Lynches.

Either way, someone is screwed in the end

 

[CyberHyperPhoenix]

Now its just a matter of who the hell I'm going to vote for... for real >_>

 

[Luigi#1]

Unvote vote: No Lynch

Just a quick question, by several, approximately how many do you mean? 5, 10, 20?

Bout 50 I think.
Also you and Captain do have good reasoning.
Therefore, sorry if wrong.
...
Well actually I can't act like Rosalina and Captain are clear.
I may wait a little while.

 

[RosalinaSGS]

I feel from Phoenix's reaction, that he is probably mafia. He has reacted quite strongly, and reused old arguments in which both Luigi and I have found great flaws in. No Lynch results in a greater chance for our loss, based off statistical analysis, than if we randomly lynched.
Also, even if we don't lynch, in an attempt to gather information, it is difficult to learn much. Only if the killer is tracked or jailed could this happen. In total, the chance that we learn new valuable information is 1/6 + 1/7= 13/42. However, even if we did gain this said information, by then it would be the second day, and we must correctly lynch a mafia. I do not wish to go further, as it will require revealing tactics the mafia could potentially use. I'll just say that, although I haven't made all the calculations, I am confident that the advantage our team-mates special abilities' give us won't affect the current chances too much. Lynching randomly is still favourable to no lynch. Over the long term, their information can prove very useful, but one night isn't long enough.

Everyone should note that most of the above is just an explanation why lynching is favourable to no lynch, even when consideration of jailer and tracker are taken account of. Currently, the main reason I vote to lynch Phoenix is because there is no better alternative. We should lynch on this turn. From the limited information available, I think Phoenix is the most suspicious due to his reactions and comments, or lack thereof. However, my primarily reason is, and I repeat this, that we should lynch this turn.

 

[JayTheUnseen]

Though I see your point in wanting to lynch now to assure the last day(when we are 3 vs 2,in the case of lynching)as opposed to 2 vs 2(the alternative if a kill or lynch does not occur on a day),
there are variables in between.If the jailer stops a mafia,after we lynch today,there will be an even number on the last day.That is just an example.

I think it is best to vote only based on evidence,not statistics,atm.I think it'd be best to focus on now whether than endgame.After all,the more townies,the better chance of us controlling the vote.

And,a problem on the 3 vs 2 final day:All three townies would have to agree on who was mafia.
Keep in mind that someone who claims to have tracked a mafia,could be a lying mafia member.

 

[#HBC | Red Ryu]

Another note, do not claim unless you have a reason for it.

It helps scum a lot more than it helps town.

 

[CyberHyperPhoenix]

I feel from Phoenix's reaction, that he is probably mafia. He has reacted quite strongly, and reused old arguments in which both Luigi and I have found great flaws in. No Lynch results in a greater chance for our loss, based off statistical analysis, than if we randomly lynched.
Also, even if we don't lynch, in an attempt to gather information, it is difficult to learn much. Only if the killer is tracked or jailed could this happen. In total, the chance that we learn new valuable information is 1/6 + 1/7= 13/42. However, even if we did gain this said information, by then it would be the second day, and we must correctly lynch a mafia. I do not wish to go further, as it will require revealing tactics the mafia could potentially use. I'll just say that, although I haven't made all the calculations, I am confident that the advantage our team-mates special abilities' give us won't affect the current chances too much. Lynching randomly is still favourable to no lynch. Over the long term, their information can prove very useful, but one night isn't long enough.

Everyone should note that most of the above is just an explanation why lynching is favourable to no lynch, even when consideration of jailer and tracker are taken account of. Currently, the main reason I vote to lynch Phoenix is because there is no better alternative. We should lynch on this turn. From the limited information available, I think Phoenix is the most suspicious due to his reactions and comments, or lack thereof. However, my primarily reason is, and I repeat this, that we should lynch this turn.

Though I see your point in wanting to lynch now to assure the last day(when we are 3 vs 2,in the case of lynching)as opposed to 2 vs 2(the alternative if a kill or lynch does not occur on a day),
there are variables in between.If the jailer stops a mafia,after we lynch today,there will be an even number on the last day.That is just an example.

I think it is best to vote only based on evidence,not statistics,atm.I think it'd be best to focus on now whether than endgame.After all,the more townies,the better chance of us controlling the vote.

And,a problem on the 3 vs 2 final day:All three townies would have to agree on who was mafia.
Keep in mind that someone who claims to have tracked a mafia,could be a lying mafia member.

See this is why I shouldn't have made that comment in the fist place. I said earlier that the reason why I hadn't said anything, was because there wasn't TOO say, because everyone else had said things before hand. If there was something too say I would have said it.

Plus, since its my first time at attempting to play mafia, its kind of hard to point things out, unlike other people who have played a few games before. >_>

 

[#HBC | Red Ryu]

Then an lynch.
Then a kill.
3/5 for lynching an inno.
In here we are screwed, chances are with mafia.


Then a maf lynch.
Then a kill.
1 mislynch left.
Used on villager.
Next day, 1/2 chance of getting it right.
Half the chance of getting it right.


Maf lynch.
Then a kill.
1 mislynch left.
Used on maf.
Yeah this could happen. But how likely is that.


Villager lynch.
Kill.
Lynch a maf. (unlikely, but say it happens)
Kill.
3 left, 1 maf.
Half the chance of getting it right AGAIN.

Vs.


No lynch.
Kill.
2 maf, 4 villagers.
Lynch needed.
Villager lynched.
Game over.


No lynch.
Kill.
2 maf, 4 villagers.
Maf lynched.
Half chance of getting it right next day.


Well, looking at that, it does seem a random lynch is better.
I'm not going to count the double maf lynch, as that is super unlikely.

So game over and half chance.
vs.
2 half chances and a probable game over.

It seems as though random lynching does have a slight edge.
We really need a tracker to do their work if we want to win this.

Well I'm used to playing the epic mafia games, so maybe forum games work differently? I dunno, that's what we normally do over there.

I get it, I go to EM, mostly for sandbox, but this doesn't work in forum mafia. Town is left with little choice but to scum hunt and lynch due to the fact the set-up is not about following the town PRs.

Scum hunting is what town needs to do in mafia in general. EM doesn't do it outside of competitive because all the training set-up are about following the cop.

We need to scum hunt even if probability is in scums hands we would mislynch. But that is why we scum hunt. To swing it into towns favor.

 

[#HBC | Red Ryu]

Also, I have a couple of very weak reasons not to lynch any of the others just yet

Luigi&Hotcakes: I have reason to believe they may be innocent.
JTB and ryu: They have experience with forum mafia and are probably valuable assets.
Jay: I am not certain as to his alliance, but he has not displayed any suspicious behaviour.

Keep in mind those are very weak arguments, mostly just hunches. Nevertheless, they are the only things I have to base my decision off of right now.

If you have anything you could contribute to these assessments, please do so.

Yes but for Luigi, do you think his experience with EM adds to this.

On Epicmafia no lynching is a very common thing vs actually scum hunting.

 

[~ Gheb ~]

CyberHyperPhoenix is henceforth abbrivated as "CHP" in the votecounts.

Red Ryu [1] - JTB
Luigi#1 [1] - JayTheUnseen
CHP [2] - Cpt. Hotcakes, RosalinaSGS
No Lynch [1] - Luigi#1

Not voting: Red Ryu, CHP
Takes 4/7 to lynch

 

[Sarki Soliloquy]

FYI, I'm conducting a statistical analysis ATM in order to predict what happens if certain events do.