Laundry's Mini Mafia actually hosted by Gheb | Day 3

[JayTheUnseen]

Well I'm feeling a bit lazy but I'll try.

He brought up jailer in a worded way that sounded a bit miffed to me,as if miffed that people were disregarding him.
In my foolishness,I announced that w/o realizing it was only good for maf.

Then day 2 when Rosalina announced that the maf called her 'bluff' CHP acted confused as if he followed through with it.
That point is null now but it bolstered my theory at the time.He always seemed like an innocent,naive kinda dude.I feel like he is acting too straight-forward to be acting.

 

[CyberHyperPhoenix]

At this point? I think JTB might be scum.

 

[#HBC | Red Ryu]

@ CyberHyperPhoenix Who do you think is mafia?

why ask him at this point?

 

[#HBC | Red Ryu]

Vote: JTB

if no one else votes, Jtb is for sure scum.

 

[#HBC | Red Ryu]

@ CyberHyperPhoenix Who do you think is mafia?

Why ask him if we wait for a counter claim?

 

[CyberHyperPhoenix]

Vote: JTB

if no one else votes, Jtb is for sure scum.

Wait, so are you saying that if I vote, jtb isn't scum? huh?

 

[JayTheUnseen]

Wait, so are you saying that if I vote, jtb isn't scum? huh?

I'm confused by what you mean as well?Because JTB's partner wouldn't vote for him of course?

 

[RosalinaSGS]

Why ask him if we wait for a counter claim?

I find it quite unlikely JTB is able to reply soon and I have decided to give CHP the benefit of the doubt.

 

[RosalinaSGS]

I'm confused by what you mean as well?Because JTB's partner wouldn't vote for him of course?

I'm still confused with this entire exchange. Why wouldn't JTB's partner vote for him if he's probably going to die? Why wouldn't JTB be scum if we vote for him?

 

[RosalinaSGS]

@ CyberHyperPhoenix Who do you think is the other mafia?

 

[CyberHyperPhoenix]

@ CyberHyperPhoenix Who do you think is the other mafia?

I dunno.

So what now? Do we Vote for JTB? Cause Red Ryu has and he said that if no else votes he is for sure scum.

 

[RosalinaSGS]

No not yet, I want more information so that I can work out who else is mafia. Also, we should probably work out our plans for the rest of the game so that we can be sure of a win.

 

[RosalinaSGS]

If we don't get anymore information today, can anyone work out a way of guaranteeing we work out the other mafia?

 

[JayTheUnseen]

If we don't get anymore information today, can anyone work out a way of guaranteeing we work out the other mafia?

I can't honestly...but I agree with Ryu that JTB is probably maf.

 

[#HBC | Red Ryu]

There has been no alpha strike.

Therefore JTB is scum. If he wasn't two people would have voted down and the game would be over.

 

[JayTheUnseen]

There has been no alpha strike.

Therefore JTB is scum. If he wasn't two people would have voted down and the game would be over.

Ah,I see your point.I def think he's maf now.

 

[JTB]

Vote: JTB

if no one else votes, Jtb is for sure scum.

Excellent way to take advantage of newbies to make them believe I'm mafia.

Vote Red Ryu

For the newbies, I can turn this argument around on RR and say that I haven't been alpha'd because RR is mafia himself and requires an additional town to vote him.

I have more to post, give me a while

 

[JTB]

Rosalina, what makes me more likely to be mafia than RR?

 

[JTB]

has tracker claimed yet? we are in lylo, there's no reason to not disclose whatever information you have

 

[CyberHyperPhoenix]

has tracker claimed yet? we are in lylo, there's no reason to not disclose whatever information you have

Obviously haven't been reading. Tracker got lynched night 1.

 

[JTB]

nah, I just forgot luigi was tracker, kinda easy to do so since it was d1

 

[RosalinaSGS]

I don't get the logic behind Ryu's certainty that JTB is mafia. What's an alpha strike and how does it affect JTB's allegiance? As for my belief you're mafia, @ JTB , I believe one of the three is innocent, and therefore the other two are mafia. (Also, do you counter-claim?) I'm unwilling to reveal who I think is innocent, but you currently appear to be the least innocent.

 

[JTB]

If I was counter claiming, wouldn't I have automatically voted CHP since he couldn't be jailer?

Let me spell out what RR's logic is and you can see how extremely faulty it is:

An alpha strike refers to a scum team all voting a player at the same time in order to lynch them immediately. This occurs in later phases of the game since the amount of players needed to lynch a player is low.

So there are 5 players currently alive, meaning that it takes 3 players to lynch a person. With a 2 man scum team, this requires one town person to lay down a vote in order for both mafia to quickly vote that person and win the game. However, this will not occur if:

1) A vote is placed on a mafia player (because obviously scum isn't going to vote themselves), or
2) Mafia places down the first vote, meaning they are waiting on an additional town vote on the person they are already voting

RR used the faulty logic that because he voted me and I hadn't received two votes means that I must be scum. He is using this argument to get one additional town player to follow his vote so that his scum buddy can place the final vote on me to win the game.

 

[JTB]

this is what the votecount looks like if you put mine and RR's alignment in

RR's logic

If JTB was town, he would've been alpha striked:

JTB (Town) - RR (Town), Scum, Scum

Because JTB wasn't alpha striked, he must be scum:

JTB (Scum) - RR (Town)

However, RR doesn't point out that it could just as easily be this situation:

JTB (Town) - RR (Scum)

which of course he doesn't point out that situation since he was trying to get someone to blindly sheep his logic

Therefore, RR is scum.

 

[CyberHyperPhoenix]

If I was counter claiming, wouldn't I have automatically voted CHP since he couldn't be jailer?

Let me spell out what RR's logic is and you can see how extremely faulty it is:

An alpha strike refers to a scum team all voting a player at the same time in order to lynch them immediately. This occurs in later phases of the game since the amount of players needed to lynch a player is low.

So there are 5 players currently alive, meaning that it takes 3 players to lynch a person. With a 2 man scum team, this requires one town person to lay down a vote in order for both mafia to quickly vote that person and win the game. However, this will not occur if:

1) A vote is placed on a mafia player (because obviously scum isn't going to vote themselves), or
2) Mafia places down the first vote, meaning they are waiting on an additional town vote on the person they are already voting

RR used the faulty logic that because he voted me and I hadn't received two votes means that I must be scum. He is using this argument to get one additional town player to follow his vote so that his scum buddy can place the final vote on me to win the game.

I know what you mean but...


dat first line tho.

 

[JTB]

im not sure what you mean?

 

[#HBC | Red Ryu]

If I was counter claiming, wouldn't I have automatically voted CHP since he couldn't be jailer?

Let me spell out what RR's logic is and you can see how extremely faulty it is:

An alpha strike refers to a scum team all voting a player at the same time in order to lynch them immediately. This occurs in later phases of the game since the amount of players needed to lynch a player is low.

So there are 5 players currently alive, meaning that it takes 3 players to lynch a person. With a 2 man scum team, this requires one town person to lay down a vote in order for both mafia to quickly vote that person and win the game. However, this will not occur if:

1) A vote is placed on a mafia player (because obviously scum isn't going to vote themselves), or
2) Mafia places down the first vote, meaning they are waiting on an additional town vote on the person they are already voting

RR used the faulty logic that because he voted me and I hadn't received two votes means that I must be scum. He is using this argument to get one additional town player to follow his vote so that his scum buddy can place the final vote on me to win the game.

The logic is not faulty it is very sound.

No one has alpha'd you so you have to be scum.

If you reread early it should be clear to everyone that I am town and what I have been doing has been with town intent.

I pushed the lynch from the person I was sure was a town PR it was unfortunate Luigi was one two and I wish we would have had him claim first.

That stands PoE made me vote you and your mate is Jay.

 

[JTB]

Oh my bad, point me to where we had a cop in this game that cleared you as definite town

 

[RosalinaSGS]

What JTB says about the alpha strike is true, Ryu could have easily set it up to provide further evidence. We can consider his purposes from a mafia mindset, and a innocent mindset. (WIFOM alert)

Case 1: Innocent
By accusing JTB, he runs the risk of immediately losing if Jay and I were mafia. However, considering that I am in the clear, the chance of this happening is reasonably low. However, as the chance of this happening is reasonably low, so is the effect of his argument. JTB cannot be alpha-striked, and so his argument has no meaning. It's illogical and appears to be an attempt at deceit.

Case 2: Mafia
By accusing JTB, he can attempt to misdirect our lynch and thus win. His fake alpha-strike claim provides evidence that JTB might be mafia, and attempts to convince us. However, I do not believe that is the entire story. What if they were both mafia? This way, by allowing one to be lynched, the other is placed in a position of trust and would most likely continue to survive the next day, thus allowing them to win. (Exactly what I predicted may happen later down the road) This makes the most sense, in my opinion, as Ryu's argument is clearly flawed, so much so that it should have been intentional, and by using terminology we may not understand or fully recognise, it is up to JTB to point out the holes in his argument, establish a conflict between them and ensure one of them is trusted.

I supplement my argument that the two are mafia by providing evidence which shows Jay to be innocent. My main argument is the post accusing me. Everyone at the time believed I was innocent. If he was a mafia, accusing me, the odds are very small that it would succeed, and may in fact lead me to believe he was mafia. However, to be honest, I was expecting such a question. If someone else was so greatly trusted on only circumstantial evidence, and appeared to be directing most of the conversation and actions, wouldn't I immediately guess they were mafia? What could be more ideal, a completely trusted mafia? The fact Jay was willing to raise such a query makes me believe he is innocent, and therefore JTB and Ryu must be the mafia. Add to this Ryu's odd behaviour, and I am reasonably confident Jay is innocent. @ CyberHyperPhoenix Since I know you're innocent, what do you think of my theory, is it particularly likely?

 

[RosalinaSGS]

Also guys, I have a strategy for ensuring we win, as long as we lynch correctly today. I can't be bother typing it up yet, but I'll definitely do it soon.

 

[JTB]

If Jay is my scum buddy RR, why don't you prove Rosalina's theory false by moving your vote over to him?

Put your money where your mouth is.

 

[RosalinaSGS]

That wouldn't actually disprove my theory, given that a conflict was already established between you two.

 

[RosalinaSGS]

In addition, a vote on Jay would still benefit you two, as a mislynch guarantees our loss.

 

[JTB]

Just some advice in general Rosalina, sometimes it's better to let things play out rather than responding to every little thing you can.

 

[RosalinaSGS]

Oh, I see. Sorry

 

[JTB]

Nah there's no need to apologize, this is a newbie game after all! It's just something to keep in mind if you decide to do normal games afterwards

 

[RosalinaSGS]

Just a quick question, @everyone, who do you think is more likely to be mafia, Ryu or JTB?

 

[CyberHyperPhoenix]

I was sus on JTB, but when RR voted and did the Alpha thing I was like: "woah woah woah, what the crap?"
So basically I'm sort of leaning towards RR being mafia.

 

[#HBC | Red Ryu]

I was sus on JTB, but when RR voted and did the Alpha thing I was like: "woah woah woah, what the crap?"
So basically I'm sort of leaning towards RR being mafia.

Dude I knew you were the PR since the beginning, if I knew this as scum I would never let up trying to kill you so I could open my chances on other people being mafia.

 

[#HBC | Red Ryu]

If Jay is my scum buddy RR, why don't you prove Rosalina's theory false by moving your vote over to him?

Put your money where your mouth is.

I'd rather lynch you first.