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K. Rool's Kremling Kutthroats: PM BKupa666 for an Invite to the New K. Rool Thread

BKupa666

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Could give a longer response later when I'm not at work and on mobile, but I'll keep it concise here. In the haste to denounce the ability of online fans to predict anything at all, people create this catch-all definition of "casual" that essentially means "everyone who's not one of the few dozen regular speculators on Smashboards." Which is hardly a viable alternative to the compilation of online fan polls we've seen, which aren't perfect, but can at least start to paint a picture. There's a world of difference between the Wii-owning soccer moms and kids and gamers reading online gamer publications who may or may not be hardcore and/or Nintendo/Smash fans.

That's what gets lost in all the noise about casuals, which @ Skyblade12 Skyblade12 has argued as well. It's easy to say "Shrek is getting so so so many votes from casuals," but when you boil it down, he is...from casuals who are fans of Shrek out of millions of other choices/fandoms, are aware of the ballot and care enough to sit down and type out a vote for him. It's a smaller pool than we think we're dealing with.

EDIT: Not sure what kind of point the Ryu thing is trying to make either. Him being ranked lowly in fan polls doesn't mean they're invalid because Sakurai added him and stated he was "aware of the DLC characters' popularity/demand." He could have very well been aware that Ryu wasn't a big request (mostly because he was seen as boring), but had such a great non-boring concept for him (or had under-the-table prodding from Capcom and/or a love of Street Fighter from his younger days) that he added him anyway alongside fan favorites Lucas and Roy.
 
Last edited:

oinkers12

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I agree with the idea that the general public offers something in terms of the overall ballot, but how many casual players will vote for the exact same character? I'm just saying that, seeing how Bill Trinen posted a joke entry (about Pinocchio or something, I forget what it was), I can see a lot of the casual audience doing something similar and voting for SpongeBob or Goku for fun. These dedicated fanbases (not just K. Rool, but also ones like Bandanna Dee or Shantae) are driving more of the votes by getting undecided voters to swing towards our side.

My second point is that the Smash Ballot was everywhere but now King K. Rool is. There are still tons of K. Rool related posts on Sakurai's Twitter and nearly every website that covered the new DLC had half of its comments talking about K. Rool's chances. People who probably didn't even care about the Ballot found out about all of this media attention (trademark) and backlash towards Nintendo about K. Rool's costume and are most likely spreading the word around to their fellow Smash enthusiasts or other places of the internet. And r/smashbros had two K. Rool related posts at the top of the page for 2 or 3 days, each with about 1000 comments. K. Rool WAS unknown. If anything, this whole controversy has boosted his support and caused the Smash Bros. fans to go into a frenzy. Heck, even people talking badly about K. Rool increased his popularity.
 

PushDustIn

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Could give a longer response later when I'm not at work and on mobile, but I'll keep it concise here. In the haste to denounce the ability of online fans to predict anything at all, people create this catch-all definition of "casual" that essentially means "everyone who's not one of the few dozen regular speculators on Smashboards." Which is hardly a viable alternative to the compilation of online fan polls we've seen, which aren't perfect, but can at least start to paint a picture. There's a world of difference between the Wii-owning soccer moms and kids and gamers reading online gamer publications who may or may not be hardcore and/or Nintendo/Smash fans.

That's what gets lost in all the noise about casuals, which @ Skyblade12 Skyblade12 has argued as well. It's easy to say "Shrek is getting so so so many votes from casuals," but when you boil it down, he is...from casuals who are fans of Shrek out of millions of other choices/fandoms, are aware of the ballot and care enough to sit down and type out a vote for him. It's a smaller pool than we think we're dealing with.

9.58 million. That's how much Smash for 3DS and Wii U has sold as of December 31st. It's definitely over 10,000,000 now.

r/smashbros has 182,030 registered users. That's not even 2% of the fanbase!

When I say casual I do mean everyone not like us. People who bought the game, play it but aren't involved with the community are in this definition. Like I (and the guy who runs SSB4Dojo) used to be. Like you note, it's also includes the soccer moms. It's a wide definition but I'm trying to move the community from being so self-absorbed. I do believe that if we can accept this fact we can be far more effective in predicting what will happen, and understanding of what happened.

I'm warning you guys that we should expect DLC-- DLC that is made to make the most amount of money, will include characters that have wide appeal.

I agree with the idea that the general public offers something in terms of the overall ballot, but how many casual players will vote for the exact same character? I'm just saying that, seeing how Bill Trinen posted a joke entry (about Pinocchio or something, I forget what it was), I can see a lot of the casual audience doing something similar and voting for SpongeBob or Goku for fun. These dedicated fanbases (not just K. Rool, but also ones like Bandanna Dee or Shantae) are driving more of the votes by getting undecided voters to swing towards our side.

My second point is that the Smash Ballot was everywhere but now King K. Rool is. There are still tons of K. Rool related posts on Sakurai's Twitter and nearly every website that covered the new DLC had half of its comments talking about K. Rool's chances. People who probably didn't even care about the Ballot found out about all of this media attention (trademark) and backlash towards Nintendo about K. Rool's costume and are most likely spreading the word around to their fellow Smash enthusiasts or other places of the internet. And r/smashbros had two K. Rool related posts at the top of the page for 2 or 3 days, each with about 1000 comments. K. Rool WAS unknown. If anything, this whole controversy has boosted his support and caused the Smash Bros. fans to go into a frenzy. Heck, even people talking badly about K. Rool increased his popularity.
I believe it was Popeye, and I'm not 100% convinced it was a joke....as Nintendo has long ties to Popeye (but that's another discussion for another day).

I do believe that the Smash Ballot has been really good to King K. Rool. I think Nintendo will use him in the next DKC, because they know fans really want the King back. I think his popularity and recognition has gone up, but I sometimes wonder if it was too late.

Only time will tell as both sides can't be proven wrong nor correct at this time. In the end, it boils down to perspective and opinion.
 

SuperSmashSean

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While I do think Isaac has a great chance, and is a character I'd like to see in, I just can't see him being voted over K. Rool. It might just be me being biased, but K. Rool is the only character in the ballot I see being supported so heavily. When the mii costume for the inklings came out, lets be honest, most people thought that meant they were deconfirmed. When it happens to K. Rool, he gets even more support while sakurai's twitter is being spammed with K. Rool. Again, I do think Isaac definitely has a great chance, I just don't see his support larger than K. Rool's.
 

Skyblade12

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Going to mix quoting the article directly, and the post.

In addition, more votes does not equal better data. If you interview 10 or 40 people holding “Frosted Flakes” cereal in the grocery store the majority of people are going to say they enjoy eating “Frosted Flakes”. Accurate polling is actually very difficult. You need to try to actively search out a variety of demographics and opinions. With polling there’s always a margin of error anyway, so we really shouldn’t take our attempts at polling as the ‘word of god’. By posting polls in Smash communities, we are only getting the hardcore Smash community’s opinion. That’s not a variety of opinions, that’s an echo-chamber.In the end, the only poll that matters if the official Smash Ballot and no matter how hard we try we can never recreate the votes that it received.
But, as you say, the Smash Ballot itself is a poll. Is Nintendo "actively searching out a variety of demographics and opinions"? Nope. If they were, there would be advertisements up on the Nintendo website. There would be advertisements up in the E-Shop. Heck, there would probably be a way to vote directly through your 3DS/Wii U. It could even look at your past purchases of Smash DLC and use those to consider how to weigh your vote in order to maximize profit for Nintendo.

They did none of these things. They just threw the poll out there for people, and only the hardcore are largely aware of it.

Like I stated in the article, I'm working doing a follow up into who's heavily requested in Japan. The Dangers of Online Polling reflects my own hesitation going into it, mainly because I've come to accept that our community isn't as sizable and influential as we would like to think it is. If it was, Smash would look like a very different game and we would have never gotten Ryu.
There is no indication that Ryu was chosen by popularity or the ballot, so that comment is largely irrelevant.

A. It's true that it's an online poll, but when it first opened it was advertised everywhere. You couldn't make a post on Twitter without 50 pictures of the Smash Ballot popping up. The voting situation right now is very different than it was. Only hardcore fans are talking about, but when it first started it was everywhere. It was on r/gaming, Kotaku, Destructoid, and so many other places. Plus, people who didn't own Smash Bros were allowed to vote. There's nothing that stopped casual fans of the series to vote. I think you are underestimating the amount of people who visit official sites/ read gaming news, but are not engaged in the community. I know because I was like that in Brawl. I read the PoTD everyday (even staying up to Japan time), and I discussed it with my friends in real life (who were also not part of any community). The guy who runs SSB4Dojo.com was also like that.
I think you are overestimating the amount of people who visit official sites/read gaming news.

But, more importantly, you are overestimating the number of people who CARE.

Official voter turn out for the presidential elections was 55%. Think about that. Almost half of the people who's lives would be directly impacted by the president's actions DIDN'T CARE ENOUGH TO VOTE.

Now how many of those people are going to take the time to vote for a Smash Bros. character?

Let's look closer. Sure, tons of people may browse Kotaku (for some unknown reason). But how many of them play Nintendo games? Plenty, but there are tons more PlayStation and XBox fanboys on there (again, just look the market shares of each system, or the comments sections). "Oh, but they can vote too, because you don't need the game or anything". But, again, WHY WOULD THEY BOTHER? Sure, some of them may just troll and throw in a random vote, but it won't be that many, and their vote will not have enough weight to skew the poll in a meaningful way.


Again, I have met plenty of Smash fans who didn't know the ballot even existed. I know people on this site, who haven't voted yet. Voter apathy is real. Most people just don't care.

Our polling is not 100% effective. If you look at a variety of polls, they all give slightly different data. That’s because within each community there is bias that is clearly evident through polling. If I had to really simplify the wishes of each of the communities: Wonder Red is popular on NeoGaf, Daisy on Tumblr, Shovel Knight on r/smashbros, King K. Rool on SmashBoards, Chrom on Miiverse. None of these communities by themselves represent the wishes of the Smash community as a whole, and these characters represent which characters get the most “feverish” support.
You also need to adjust those community's votes based on their own size, dedication to a single fan base, and seriousness.


Your ballot choices are GRRREAT!

To make an analogy, it’s like polling the hardcore Democrats (Or Republicans) about who they want to see President. Sure, they have strong views on what makes a good candidate but (theoretically) they need to pick someone who will appeal to the moderates. Otherwise, their candidate will lose the popular vote as they aren’t aiming for the middle.
Wow. This analogy is so wrong I don't know how to describe it.

This is NOT a presidential nomination. You don't look for a character who will "please all fanbases", because such a character doesn't exist. There is no "middle ground" character in this debate.

If you want a closer presidential analogy, look at this one: You have the people who vote Republican, the people who vote Democrat, the people who vote third party, the people who vote write-in ballot names, and the people who don't vote at all.

The top votes go to the characters supported by major parties (like Isaac and K. Rool). The "casuals" are either people who don't vote, or people who vote for write-in ballot names. In other words, characters who are different from person to person, and won't gather enough votes to skew the results.

And, in another shift from presidential elections, there is not necessarily just one winner.

Right now, the Smash community is not doing that. We are picking characters that we want. This is an issue, because the community isn’t as large as we think it is. We are grossly exaggerating our importance. Chris Pranger recently discussed this on the Part-Time Gamer podcast. Go listen to it, as it clears a lot of misconceptions about Nintendo’s relationship and the hardcore community.

“People are like, “why don’t you support the tournament scene? support the hardcore players?” Because– you guys are loud and like ever present but you don’t make up a great enough number to justify cost on this game.”

Even though he is talking about the tournament scene, his sentiments can be easily applied to the speculation scene too. I would highly suggest reading SmashChu’s article, Econ 102: Opportunity Cost and Character Selection which has been highly influential in forming my thoughts. Whoever is picked from the Smash Ballot needs to sell. DLC needs to be popular among all gamers, not just the people who talk about Smash all day.
More importantly, Smash Ballot DLC needs to sell TO PEOPLE WHO WILL BUY IT. One of the generally accepted facts about DLC is that the sooner it's released, the better it will sell. This is because the game is fresh on people's minds, and they want more of the game while they're interested in it. The longer the delay, the more likely the players are to move on to another game and forget Smash Bros. The more dedicated the player, the more likely they are to buy. Appealing to the casual people who have already forgotten the game and just let it gather dust isn't going to get them to shell out another ten bucks. As for the true "casuals", like the soccer moms and such: They likely either won't buy it at all, or they'll buy whatever is advertised to them. Because the characters aren't as important as the role they serve in making the game fun/interesting.


Apparently…this is a movie? Never heard of it.

Ryu is a perfect example of this. In my Mega Smash Poll, Ryu placed 39th out of 50th. Viewtiful Joe and Crash Bandicoot placed higher than Ryu. Even if we looked at “likelihood” (Wants/ potential), Ryu was thought to be extremely unlikely. I know there was that misconception of the “No Fighting Game” quote, but I’m asking the Smash community to exercise practicality in our expectations.From one super fan to another, please remember that we are super fans, and our opinions do not represent the “moderates” or the general public.
No, Ryu isn't. Nor is Wii Fit Trainer, nor Bowser Jr. Not every character was based on popular demand, and to imply otherwise skews your data.
 
D

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Actually Bowser Jr was a fairly speculated and requested character back in Pre-Sm4sh speculation.

The only reason why Bowser Jr didn't took off is because of Rosalina's reveal, which made many people thought that Rosy was the only Mario Newcomer coming (which she wasn't).
 

BKupa666

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I've said it in the main character thread, but "casual vs. hardcore" is a distraction. The focus should be on valid votes vs. invalid ones...remotely major Nintendo characters vs. memes, fads, impossible third parties and whatnot. All manner of fans is capable of voting for either type of character (casuals in larger numbers based on the stereotype, but still), but it's the hardcore fans who are out there, campaigning for their character to others who aren't Smash fans online and to relatives, even putting in multiple votes at times.

The dedication and steamlined focus of the online fans is a bigger force to be reckoned with than unfocused casuals. For those Pixar fans out there, it's as if the ants in Bug's Life never learned they could band together and overpower the grasshoppers (and if the grasshoppers weren't villainous). The main threat I see isn't casuals, but that some hardcore basement-dwellers will just sit at their computer for hours every day, voting for someone like Daisy on some IP-switching technology. That's a fearsome possibility, but let's hope Nintendo has a way to sort that out.
 

Bananija

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I want to try to make a 2 player platformer. I already have 3 of the main characters sketched out and am still trying to figure out what the evil henchmen should be. The actual villain is a giant frog though. The two others are a Salamander and a Sail Fish...
Well, the only idea that I have his call yourself [insert a color here] studio with the letter every color except the one in the name.
:urg:Sorry if it's the only thing that I came up with.
Actually Bowser Jr was a fairly speculated and requested character back in Pre-Sm4sh speculation.

The only reason why Bowser Jr didn't took off is because of Rosalina's reveal, which made many people thought that Rosy was the only Mario Newcomer coming (which she wasn't).
This is true, and this is why I could find happiness in the ERSB leak.
 
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Going to mix quoting the article directly, and the post.



But, as you say, the Smash Ballot itself is a poll. Is Nintendo "actively searching out a variety of demographics and opinions"? Nope. If they were, there would be advertisements up on the Nintendo website. There would be advertisements up in the E-Shop. Heck, there would probably be a way to vote directly through your 3DS/Wii U. It could even look at your past purchases of Smash DLC and use those to consider how to weigh your vote in order to maximize profit for Nintendo.

They did none of these things. They just threw the poll out there for people, and only the hardcore are largely aware of it.



There is no indication that Ryu was chosen by popularity or the ballot, so that comment is largely irrelevant.



I think you are overestimating the amount of people who visit official sites/read gaming news.

But, more importantly, you are overestimating the number of people who CARE.

Official voter turn out for the presidential elections was 55%. Think about that. Almost half of the people who's lives would be directly impacted by the president's actions DIDN'T CARE ENOUGH TO VOTE.

Now how many of those people are going to take the time to vote for a Smash Bros. character?

Let's look closer. Sure, tons of people may browse Kotaku (for some unknown reason). But how many of them play Nintendo games? Plenty, but there are tons more PlayStation and XBox fanboys on there (again, just look the market shares of each system, or the comments sections). "Oh, but they can vote too, because you don't need the game or anything". But, again, WHY WOULD THEY BOTHER? Sure, some of them may just troll and throw in a random vote, but it won't be that many, and their vote will not have enough weight to skew the poll in a meaningful way.


Again, I have met plenty of Smash fans who didn't know the ballot even existed. I know people on this site, who haven't voted yet. Voter apathy is real. Most people just don't care.



You also need to adjust those community's votes based on their own size, dedication to a single fan base, and seriousness.



Wow. This analogy is so wrong I don't know how to describe it.

This is NOT a presidential nomination. You don't look for a character who will "please all fanbases", because such a character doesn't exist. There is no "middle ground" character in this debate.

If you want a closer presidential analogy, look at this one: You have the people who vote Republican, the people who vote Democrat, the people who vote third party, the people who vote write-in ballot names, and the people who don't vote at all.

The top votes go to the characters supported by major parties (like Isaac and K. Rool). The "casuals" are either people who don't vote, or people who vote for write-in ballot names. In other words, characters who are different from person to person, and won't gather enough votes to skew the results.

And, in another shift from presidential elections, there is not necessarily just one winner.



More importantly, Smash Ballot DLC needs to sell TO PEOPLE WHO WILL BUY IT. One of the generally accepted facts about DLC is that the sooner it's released, the better it will sell. This is because the game is fresh on people's minds, and they want more of the game while they're interested in it. The longer the delay, the more likely the players are to move on to another game and forget Smash Bros. The more dedicated the player, the more likely they are to buy. Appealing to the casual people who have already forgotten the game and just let it gather dust isn't going to get them to shell out another ten bucks. As for the true "casuals", like the soccer moms and such: They likely either won't buy it at all, or they'll buy whatever is advertised to them. Because the characters aren't as important as the role they serve in making the game fun/interesting.



No, Ryu isn't. Nor is Wii Fit Trainer, nor Bowser Jr. Not every character was based on popular demand, and to imply otherwise skews your data.
You,

I like you.
 

SuperSmashSean

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Going to mix quoting the article directly, and the post.



But, as you say, the Smash Ballot itself is a poll. Is Nintendo "actively searching out a variety of demographics and opinions"? Nope. If they were, there would be advertisements up on the Nintendo website. There would be advertisements up in the E-Shop. Heck, there would probably be a way to vote directly through your 3DS/Wii U. It could even look at your past purchases of Smash DLC and use those to consider how to weigh your vote in order to maximize profit for Nintendo.

They did none of these things. They just threw the poll out there for people, and only the hardcore are largely aware of it.



There is no indication that Ryu was chosen by popularity or the ballot, so that comment is largely irrelevant.



I think you are overestimating the amount of people who visit official sites/read gaming news.

But, more importantly, you are overestimating the number of people who CARE.

Official voter turn out for the presidential elections was 55%. Think about that. Almost half of the people who's lives would be directly impacted by the president's actions DIDN'T CARE ENOUGH TO VOTE.

Now how many of those people are going to take the time to vote for a Smash Bros. character?

Let's look closer. Sure, tons of people may browse Kotaku (for some unknown reason). But how many of them play Nintendo games? Plenty, but there are tons more PlayStation and XBox fanboys on there (again, just look the market shares of each system, or the comments sections). "Oh, but they can vote too, because you don't need the game or anything". But, again, WHY WOULD THEY BOTHER? Sure, some of them may just troll and throw in a random vote, but it won't be that many, and their vote will not have enough weight to skew the poll in a meaningful way.


Again, I have met plenty of Smash fans who didn't know the ballot even existed. I know people on this site, who haven't voted yet. Voter apathy is real. Most people just don't care.



You also need to adjust those community's votes based on their own size, dedication to a single fan base, and seriousness.



Wow. This analogy is so wrong I don't know how to describe it.

This is NOT a presidential nomination. You don't look for a character who will "please all fanbases", because such a character doesn't exist. There is no "middle ground" character in this debate.

If you want a closer presidential analogy, look at this one: You have the people who vote Republican, the people who vote Democrat, the people who vote third party, the people who vote write-in ballot names, and the people who don't vote at all.

The top votes go to the characters supported by major parties (like Isaac and K. Rool). The "casuals" are either people who don't vote, or people who vote for write-in ballot names. In other words, characters who are different from person to person, and won't gather enough votes to skew the results.

And, in another shift from presidential elections, there is not necessarily just one winner.



More importantly, Smash Ballot DLC needs to sell TO PEOPLE WHO WILL BUY IT. One of the generally accepted facts about DLC is that the sooner it's released, the better it will sell. This is because the game is fresh on people's minds, and they want more of the game while they're interested in it. The longer the delay, the more likely the players are to move on to another game and forget Smash Bros. The more dedicated the player, the more likely they are to buy. Appealing to the casual people who have already forgotten the game and just let it gather dust isn't going to get them to shell out another ten bucks. As for the true "casuals", like the soccer moms and such: They likely either won't buy it at all, or they'll buy whatever is advertised to them. Because the characters aren't as important as the role they serve in making the game fun/interesting.



No, Ryu isn't. Nor is Wii Fit Trainer, nor Bowser Jr. Not every character was based on popular demand, and to imply otherwise skews your data.
This is probably one of the best posts I've seen. You basically put all my problems with this article in your post, and then some. A big problem to me with this article is he implies that people actually vote for Shrek and Goku as serious submissions. Most people who do that vote then most likely do a real vote. Again, fantastic job!
 

PushDustIn

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Going to mix quoting the article directly, and the post.

But, as you say, the Smash Ballot itself is a poll. Is Nintendo "actively searching out a variety of demographics and opinions"? Nope. If they were, there would be advertisements up on the Nintendo website. There would be advertisements up in the E-Shop. Heck, there would probably be a way to vote directly through your 3DS/Wii U. It could even look at your past purchases of Smash DLC and use those to consider how to weigh your vote in order to maximize profit for Nintendo.

They did none of these things. They just threw the poll out there for people, and only the hardcore are largely aware of it.
Okay...so how about we look at the viewership for the April 1st Nintendo Direct when the Smash Ballot was announced? Surely since these are fans care enough to watch the Direct, they are more likely to vote.
1,035,990 views (American). 29,884 (French) 58,977 (Spanish) 61,099 (Japanese, NicoNico. Odd, can't find the YouTube link right now but that has even more views)

(For reference, New Content Approaching has 2,256,878 views for the American side alone)


Those numbers are still way higher than the number of users on /r/smashbros, or SmashBoards.com.

There is no indication that Ryu was chosen by popularity or the ballot, so that comment is largely irrelevant.
[/quote]

Sakurai said:
There is a fighter ballot on the official Smash for Wii U/3DS website. We’ve received an extremely large number of votes, but of course, Lucas, Roy, and Ryu were in development even before the ballot was created. I had a grasp on their popularity and demand, though.
This comes from his Weekly Famitsu Column. Emphasis mine.

It's not just popularity. It's popularity and demand.


I think you are overestimating the amount of people who visit official sites/read gaming news.

But, more importantly, you are overestimating the number of people who CARE.

Official voter turn out for the presidential elections was 55%. Think about that. Almost half of the people who's lives would be directly impacted by the president's actions DIDN'T CARE ENOUGH TO VOTE.

Now how many of those people are going to take the time to vote for a Smash Bros. character?
Voting in the Smash ballot takes less than 2 minutes, and no effort at all. Voting in the president election takes a lot more effort (driving, taking more time out of your free time). There's no barrier to entry for the Smash Ballot than presidential election (especially in some states where they require you to have an ID card!). Anyone can vote, with ease.

Let's look closer. Sure, tons of people may browse Kotaku (for some unknown reason). But how many of them play Nintendo games? Plenty, but there are tons more PlayStation and XBox fanboys on there (again, just look the market shares of each system, or the comments sections). "Oh, but they can vote too, because you don't need the game or anything". But, again, WHY WOULD THEY BOTHER? Sure, some of them may just troll and throw in a random vote, but it won't be that many, and their vote will not have enough weight to skew the poll in a meaningful way.

Again, I have met plenty of Smash fans who didn't know the ballot even existed. I know people on this site, who haven't voted yet. Voter apathy is real. Most people just don't care.
You also need to adjust those community's votes based on their own size, dedication to a single fan base, and seriousness.
Good luck. No one just visits just one site. Even the comprehensive voting data that's compiled by my buddy at SSB4Dojo is bound to have a lot of errors. We are never going to have an accurate picture of what the Smash Ballot. We don't even have who the French, Spanish, German and all the other people are voting!

Wow. This analogy is so wrong I don't know how to describe it.

This is NOT a presidential nomination. You don't look for a character who will "please all fanbases", because such a character doesn't exist. There is no "middle ground" character in this debate.

If you want a closer presidential analogy, look at this one: You have the people who vote Republican, the people who vote Democrat, the people who vote third party, the people who vote write-in ballot names, and the people who don't vote at all.

The top votes go to the characters supported by major parties (like Isaac and K. Rool). The "casuals" are either people who don't vote, or people who vote for write-in ballot names. In other words, characters who are different from person to person, and won't gather enough votes to skew the results.

And, in another shift from presidential elections, there is not necessarily just one winner.
We need to stop looking at character choices as "either it's my character or it's nothing!" There is a middle ground for most people. If a lot of people want another Fire Emblem representative, but they are voting for a variety of characters then Roy is an acceptable middle ground. The majority of the people aren't that obsessed about getting Anna in. They might be aware of her existence, but it wouldn't hype them as much as Roy. Sakurai looks at characters based on what they can bring, but he also does consider series representation. I know that DK has been shafted by representation, and in a lot of ways FE has been 'over represented' but it is something he does put some thought into.

Look at how he choose the Retro representative for Melee. He didn't go with the most popular vote. Heck, he almost didn't include Ganondorf in Melee, even though he was the most requested Zelda rep! Votes matter to some extent, but not as much as we would like to think they do. There isn't going to be a winner. It's going to be based on what has wide appeal. Hardcores may set the dinner plate, but Sakurai is very much choosing what to actually serve because he needs to appeal to a wide variety of tastes. It's a balancing act.

(Sorry for a new food analogy :p)

More importantly, Smash Ballot DLC needs to sell TO PEOPLE WHO WILL BUY IT. One of the generally accepted facts about DLC is that the sooner it's released, the better it will sell. This is because the game is fresh on people's minds, and they want more of the game while they're interested in it. The longer the delay, the more likely the players are to move on to another game and forget Smash Bros. The more dedicated the player, the more likely they are to buy. Appealing to the casual people who have already forgotten the game and just let it gather dust isn't going to get them to shell out another ten bucks. As for the true "casuals", like the soccer moms and such: They likely either won't buy it at all, or they'll buy whatever is advertised to them. Because the characters aren't as important as the role they serve in making the game fun/interesting.

No, Ryu isn't. Nor is Wii Fit Trainer, nor Bowser Jr. Not every character was based on popular demand, and to imply otherwise skews your data.
Again, 2 million people watched the latest "Content Approaching Direct" in America alone (And way more than the number of people active on SmashBoards and /r/smashbros). We still make a fraction of the people who are actually interested in DLC content, and they had no problem selling the characters they did choose. Over 1/5 of the people who theoretically owned the game watched that presentation. That is a very good number to have.

Wii Fit Trainer was selected to be a surprise character. But it's not like Wii Fit was a game that appealed to a small group of people. A lot of people know Wii Fit Trainer, even if they didn't realize they wanted her.

Bowser Jr. was even recommend by IGN. Bowser Jr. was heavily requested (though with his paintbrush moveset) by the hardcore community in both Brawl and Smash for 3DS/ Wii U. Koopalings and him were even in Mario Kart 8, and had a very warm welcome. In fact the Koopalings had a sort of revival at Nintendo because if I remember correctly they were also in one of the newest Mario games.

As for Ryu, even in my current Japanese research I've seen little mention of Ryu being requested (And the "no fighting characters quote" didn't make a big impact there). Sakurai is looking at general popularity. It explains every choice he's made so far.

I know it's a hard truth that no one wants to hear, but our community isn't as big as we would like to think it is. It's very insular.

Until we can find data that further proves or disproves my points about how big the larger Smash community is, both of our points remain speculation.

I sincerely enjoy these kinds of debates, so I hope no one takes anything personally. It's very rare to find someone who actually responds to your points, so thank you @ Skyblade12 Skyblade12 .
 
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Pazzo.

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Can we get a front page article, written by Skyblade, saying;

IT'S A SUGGESTION BOX PEOPLE!!!!!!
 
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Bowser Jr. was even recommend by IGN. Bowser Jr. was heavily requested (though with his paintbrush moveset) by the hardcore community in both Brawl and Smash for 3DS/ Wii U. Koopalings and him were even in Mario Kart 8, and had a very warm welcome. In fact the Koopalings had a sort of revival at Nintendo because if I remember correctly they were also in one of the newest Mario games.
Bowser Jr. wasn't in Mario Kart 8...
 

BKupa666

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Again, can't make a big response or multi-quote on mobile, but check the comments section on those videos (the ones that allow them) and you'll find basically what I've been saying...comments that include either the characters we've been forecasting or random, impossible or stupid ones. Examples I remember, "OMG LET'S KICKSTART YOOKA-LAYLEE INTO THE GAME," 340+ upvotes. "My top 5: Banjo, Bayonetta, Simon Belmont, Shantae and Isaac!!" 200+ upvotes and so on. This isn't coherent voting, it's clutter and noise. Characters like K. Rool and Isaac will only be able to take a plurality of votes among the clutter, not an outright majority, but hopefully it'll be a noticeable enough one to where they can get singled out as reasonable choices nonetheless.

Otherwise, there are other things to argue, like people viewing those videos multiple times (I went back and rewatched the ballot reveal at least ten times personally), or not caring about Smash (it's tough for avid fans to understand, but Smash isn't everyone's cup of tea), or that Roy was topping all other FE characters in a lot of fan polls, not simply chosen to "rep" the disparate desires of the FE fanbase. Someone else can discuss those though.
 
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Skyblade12

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Voting in the Smash ballot takes less than 2 minutes, and no effort at all. Voting in the president election takes a lot more effort (driving, taking more time out of your free time). There's no barrier to entry for the Smash Ballot than presidential election (especially in some states where they require you to have an ID card!). Anyone can vote, with ease.
Then why are there people here who still haven't done it? I'd give you an example, but I KNOW those people will be immediately bombarded by tons of PMs saying "vote for K. Rool", and those people are my friends, so I would rather spare them that. Besides, I'm trying to get them to vote Isaac.

It still takes effort. You have to fill it in. You have to give a reason. You have to navigate to the new page.

Every SINGLE time you buy something from GameStop, your receipt includes a code to fill out a survey. It takes maybe five seconds, and it enters you to win a $100 Gift Card. How many have you actually filled in?

Good luck. No one just visits just one site. Even the comprehensive voting data that's compiled by my buddy at SSB4Dojo is bound to have a lot of errors. We are never going to have an accurate picture of what the Smash Ballot. We don't even have who the French, Spanish, German and all the other people are voting!
This is true.

We need to stop looking at character choices as "either it's my character or it's nothing!" There is a middle ground for most people. If a lot of people want another Fire Emblem representative, but they are voting for a variety of characters then Roy is an acceptable middle ground. The majority of the people aren't that obsessed about getting Anna in. They might be aware of her existence, but it wouldn't hype them as much as Roy. Sakurai looks at characters based on what they can bring, but he also does consider series representation. I know that DK has been shafted by representation, and in a lot of ways FE has been 'over represented' but it is something he does put some thought into.
I'm sorry, no, this is completely wrong. There isn't a middle vote.

"Oh, some people are voting Isaac, others are voting K. Rool. Let's split the difference and give them Gex, a reptile hero!"

It doesn't work that way, and people will NEVER see things that way. They aren't voting for K. Rool just because he's a villain, or because he's from DKC. They're voting for K. Rool because they like the CHARACTER. If the character doesn't get in, they aren't going to be happy with a replacement who is "close, but more mainstream". It's not going to work.

To use an analogy that is, again, more accurate than yours, look at all the Fire Emblem fans who wanted more characters, yet were still upset about Lucina because she was such a copycat clone.

Look at how he choose the Retro representative for Melee. He didn't go with the most popular vote. Heck, he almost didn't include Ganondorf in Melee, even though he was the most requested Zelda rep! Votes matter to some extent, but not as much as we would like to think they do. There isn't going to be a winner. It's going to be based on what has wide appeal. Hardcores may set the dinner plate, but Sakurai is very much choosing what to actually serve because he needs to appeal to a wide variety of tastes. It's a balancing act.

(Sorry for a new food analogy :p)
The entire POINT of the ballot is that votes matter. The entire point of saying "the rest of the characters from here on are going to be fanservice" is because VOTES MATTER.

You are right in your assertion that we won't ever see the results. This is true, and anyone who thinks otherwise is an idiot.

But that doesn't matter, because the votes matter, and our community is FAR more likely to vote than non-Smash community members.

And, again, a disorganized voting community, even if larger, is unlikely to upset the votes.

Example:

10,000 people vote in the ballot.

The Smashboards fans, 1,000 of those people, vote for K. Rool.

The casuals, the other 9,000, all vote for different people.

So we have 1000 votes for K. Rool, and 1 vote apiece for 9,000 other characters.

The assumption that "all non-Smashboards people vote for Shrek/Goku" (in addition to being the STILL incorrect assumption that all non-Smashboards people bother to vote AT ALL), is that there is no unified votes for that. Such people will vote randomly for any number of characters. And the ones who are most likely to vote (the Smash/Nintendo fans), are also the ones who are most likely to know what Smash IS, and vote for characters who fit the trends and criteria. Characters like Isaac and K. Rool.

Again, 2 million people watched the latest "Content Approaching Direct" in America alone (And way more than the number of people active on SmashBoards and /r/smashbros). We still make a fraction of the people who are actually interested in DLC content, and they had no problem selling the characters they did choose. Over 1/5 of the people who theoretically owned the game watched that presentation. That is a very good number to have.
And how many of them watched the whole thing? How many immediately switched pages and voted? Or how many went to download Mewtwo and promptly forgot about the ballot?

Wii Fit Trainer was selected to be a surprise character. But it's not like Wii Fit was a game that appealed to a small group of people. A lot of people know Wii Fit Trainer, even if they didn't realize they wanted her.
It's not as though DKC or Golden Sun only appealed to a small group of people either. Those games have both sold millions.

I know it's a hard truth that no one wants to hear, but our community isn't as big as we would like to think it is. It's very insular.
Not really. I found this place just by searching for Smash stuff after the Robin reveal. It's easy to find, it's incredibly prominent, and it's overall very welcoming. People who actually care to find out about Smash will find this place (long before they find the ballot, if they don't know exactly where to look). Just like people who want to find out about Pokemon will find Smogon.

Until we can find data that further proves or disproves my points about how big the larger Smash community is, both of our points remain speculation.
Can you find data that backs up your claim that ANY of these casuals have voted?

The next kid you see playing on their 3DS (they're all over the place over here), ask them if they even KNOW there's a vote to put new characters in Smash. I've done this. You may find the results shocking.

I sincerely enjoy these kinds of debates, so I hope no one takes anything personally. It's very rare to find someone who actually responds to your points, so thank you @ Skyblade12 Skyblade12 .
No problem. I'm glad you weren't offended. I can get passionate, but I don't mean any of what I say as an attack.
 
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Wintropy

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For what it's worth, I've been keeping up with the ballot since day one, yet I only voted once at first and didn't vote for K. Rool until months later.

Smash fans may forgo the chance to vote if their favourite character is already in the game. It isn't as clear-cut as Smash fan = vote!
 
D

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Im getting bored of this debate, so........
 
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Kroconut

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The Smash Bros. Facebook page asks whom we've been voting for in the Fighter Ballot. let's go.

Also congrats on 1,000+ pages :D
 
D

Deleted member

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Ok. going back to the vote tingy.......

Question to all K.Rool fans out there..

¿Is K.Rool the ONLY character that you have voted on the Ballot so far? ¿Or is there another character that you have voted on the Ballot?


As for me, i have only voted for 5 characters so far.
 

BowserK.Rool

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Only other character I've voted twice for is Banjo-Kazooie but the rest it's been for K. Rool since I want him more and think he has more of a chance due to him being owned by Nintendo.
 

Skyblade12

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I've withheld voting for multiple characters because I still don't know if multiple votes will count.
 

POKEMANSPIKA

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Ok. going back to the vote tingy.......

Question to all K.Rool fans out there..

¿Is K.Rool the ONLY character that you have voted on the Ballot so far? ¿Or is there another character that you have voted on the Ballot?


As for me, i have only voted for 5 characters so far.
lol the only character, yeah right. I've voted for Isaac, Star Man, Ridley, Samurai Goroh, Goku (Yuyuki) and probably some more.
 

FalKoopa

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I think there is a possibility that we might some insight into the ballot results.

There are as many ballot sites as the number of languages the Smash Bros. site is offered in (that is, 13). I don't see why they'd go so far as to make separate English polls for UK, USA and Australia, or separate Spanish polls for Latin America and Spain otherwise.

:231:
 

JayJay55

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Ok. going back to the vote tingy.......

Question to all K.Rool fans out there..

¿Is K.Rool the ONLY character that you have voted on the Ballot so far? ¿Or is there another character that you have voted on the Ballot?


As for me, i have only voted for 5 characters so far.
K. Rool and Ridley (call me delusional, idfc, I'll support him as long as Sakurai's reasoning remains the BS that it is, I want an actual valid reason of why he isn't playable instead of lame ass excuses) from all different devices. I voted K. Rool from my laptop, cell phone, and mom's desktop and Ridley from my aunt's laptop, my cousin's laptop, and mom's cell phone.
 
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Skyblade12

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I think there is a possibility that we might some insight into the ballot results.

There are as many ballot sites as the number of languages the Smash Bros. site is offered in (that is, 13). I don't see why they'd go so far as to make separate English polls for UK, USA and Australia, or separate Spanish polls for Latin America and Spain otherwise.

:231:
What we will get is:

"These characters were chosen based on the ballot results."

Let's say that the actual ballot results give half of the votes to Banjo and Kazooie. Yet, due to it being advertising for the competition, Nintendo doesn't want to put them in. Do you really think they'd go "yeah, this is what you guys asked for, but we chose something completely different"? There are tons of various reasons like that. They'd have to explain each high vote character who didn't get in, justify and defend their choices, and it would NOT be worth it.
 

FalKoopa

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What we will get is:

"These characters were chosen based on the ballot results."

Let's say that the actual ballot results give half of the votes to Banjo and Kazooie. Yet, due to it being advertising for the competition, Nintendo doesn't want to put them in. Do you really think they'd go "yeah, this is what you guys asked for, but we chose something completely different"? There are tons of various reasons like that. They'd have to explain each high vote character who didn't get in, justify and defend their choices, and it would NOT be worth it.
Well, they aren't really obligated to justify a character they add. Though I guess it would a can of worms.

:231:
 

Pazzo.

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Nintendo should have used something other than a word that is associated with a poll, especially in our Democratic world.

Suggestion Box would have worked, and sounded catchy.

Smash Suggestion Box, or SSB.
 

BKupa666

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Two points that are worth hitting on...

People like to say that "online fans are deluded in thinking that the ballot is a vote and not a suggestion box." And yet, the people most prone to thinking it's a straight-up vote? Casuals. They aren't going to be browsing forums and second-guessing themselves because of users finger-wagging and claiming that the popular choices won't happen "because it's just a suggestion box." They'll think they can "vote a character into the game," regardless of who it is...kind of like those "Send a singer to perform in any country" polls where people vote to send Justin Bieber and Taylor Swift to North Korea. Heck, I've even seen online fans fall into this fallacy when detracting K. Rool..."This is our big chance to vote anyone into the game and you're choosing a fat crocodile???" Makes them far more prone to choosing random characters instead of limiting themselves to who has a chance like some online fans do.

The other point is that, while the results themselves almost surely won't be published, something will, or else why say "responses may be published" and require names on all sites but the U.S. one? What's more, we did get some form of results for the old Melee poll fans voted in that Bowser won, divided by series. It'll be much harder to do nowadays with so many more series, first and third party, to cover, and the real chance that an impossible character outright wins, but it's not impossible either.
 
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PushDustIn

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Then why are there people here who still haven't done it? I'd give you an example, but I KNOW those people will be immediately bombarded by tons of PMs saying "vote for K. Rool", and those people are my friends, so I would rather spare them that. Besides, I'm trying to get them to vote Isaac.

It still takes effort. You have to fill it in. You have to give a reason. You have to navigate to the new page.

Every SINGLE time you buy something from GameStop, your receipt includes a code to fill out a survey. It takes maybe five seconds, and it enters you to win a $100 Gift Card. How many have you actually filled in?
I'm not sure. But again, we have no idea how the ballot votes are being counted. People are voting multiple times, some people aren't voting. We just can't forget about the people who quietly want something. It's something Sakurai even talked about in his newest Famitsu column. It's something he is conscious about. Find a quote where he says "hardcore community is the only community". I'll save you time...there isn't. He's always talked about Smash reaching a wide demographic that's aimed at a variety of people. Just because we are obsessed with the game doesn't mean the game is obsessed with us. We need to stop acting like it is, because the love will never be reciprocated, and we need to accept it. (Insert sad violin music)

This is true.

I'm sorry, no, this is completely wrong. There isn't a middle vote.

"Oh, some people are voting Isaac, others are voting K. Rool. Let's split the difference and give them Gex, a reptile hero!"

It doesn't work that way, and people will NEVER see things that way. They aren't voting for K. Rool just because he's a villain, or because he's from DKC. They're voting for K. Rool because they like the CHARACTER. If the character doesn't get in, they aren't going to be happy with a replacement who is "close, but more mainstream". It's not going to work.

To use an analogy that is, again, more accurate than yours, look at all the Fire Emblem fans who wanted more characters, yet were still upset about Lucina because she was such a copycat clone.
Both are ridiculous examples. You know that's not what I meant. If 40% want Dixie, 50% King K Rool and 10% want Funky, than Dixie or King K. Rool are acceptable choices (if you don't take a first past the post approach).

The entire POINT of the ballot is that votes matter. The entire point of saying "the rest of the characters from here on are going to be fanservice" is because VOTES MATTER.

You are right in your assertion that we won't ever see the results. This is true, and anyone who thinks otherwise is an idiot.

But that doesn't matter, because the votes matter, and our community is FAR more likely to vote than non-Smash community members.

And, again, a disorganized voting community, even if larger, is unlikely to upset the votes.

Example:

10,000 people vote in the ballot.

The Smashboards fans, 1,000 of those people, vote for K. Rool.

The casuals, the other 9,000, all vote for different people.

So we have 1000 votes for K. Rool, and 1 vote apiece for 9,000 other characters.

The assumption that "all non-Smashboards people vote for Shrek/Goku" (in addition to being the STILL incorrect assumption that all non-Smashboards people bother to vote AT ALL), is that there is no unified votes for that. Such people will vote randomly for any number of characters. And the ones who are most likely to vote (the Smash/Nintendo fans), are also the ones who are most likely to know what Smash IS, and vote for characters who fit the trends and criteria. Characters like Isaac and K. Rool.
Even if they are disorganized, it doesn't matter if the rest of the world can outbids us. As I said before until we can find data otherwise, both of our assumptions are incorrect and correct at the same time. It's a matter of perspective until we find data. Luckily, I've been thinking of ways to prove my point further.

You may not remember this but for the Wii you can report how long you played a game, and how many hours you put into it. Brawl was the most played game on the Wii. For over 2 years.


1,744,608 players reported their data to the Nintendo Channel for Brawl alone. That represents 13% of the total sales of Brawl, BTW and a lot more people in the "hardcore Smash community". The average hours went up 15 hours, with constant growth. Animal Crossing was probably the biggest threat, but it leveled out much more quickly. A lot of people play Smash. If it was just 15% of the people playing that much (which is more than the hardcore community), the drastic change wouldn't be there.


And how many of them watched the whole thing? How many immediately switched pages and voted? Or how many went to download Mewtwo and promptly forgot about the ballot?
That's impossible to prove one way or the other without access to Nintendo's analytics, so we are stuck in a standstill.

It's not as though DKC or Golden Sun only appealed to a small group of people either. Those games have both sold millions.

Not really. I found this place just by searching for Smash stuff after the Robin reveal. It's easy to find, it's incredibly prominent, and it's overall very welcoming. People who actually care to find out about Smash will find this place (long before they find the ballot, if they don't know exactly where to look). Just like people who want to find out about Pokemon will find Smogon.
I originally joined this place in 2007, and was never active until Smash 4 speculation. That's also something to consider. How many people are actively involved within the community. The registered number of users might be inflated, and isn't a strong indicator of active participation. Alpharad's most popular video has 667,000+ views, which is still a lot bigger than any of the community polls I've seen.

Can you find data that backs up your claim that ANY of these casuals have voted?
Can you find any data that backs up your claims that they haven't? Like I said, until we find data that goes in either way it's perception and opinion.


The next kid you see playing on their 3DS (they're all over the place over here), ask them if they even KNOW there's a vote to put new characters in Smash. I've done this. You may find the results shocking.
Extreme example.

No problem. I'm glad you weren't offended. I can get passionate, but I don't mean any of what I say as an attack.
It might be better if we take this to PMs. It seems that people in this thread want to move on (sorry). If you are interested, maybe we can organize our thoughts and write up a debate for Source Gaming. Let me know if you are interested. I enjoy these kinds of debates, and I sincerely believe it's incredibly healthy for the community to have them.

Two points that are worth hitting on...

People like to say that "online fans are deluded in thinking that the ballot is a vote and not a suggestion box." And yet, the people most prone to thinking it's a straight-up vote? Casuals. They aren't going to be browsing forums and second-guessing themselves because of users finger-wagging and claiming that the popular choices won't happen "because it's just a suggestion box." They'll think they can "vote a character into the game," regardless of who it is...kind of like those "Send a singer to perform in any country" polls where people vote to send Justin Bieber and Taylor Swift to North Korea. Heck, I've even seen online fans fall into this fallacy when detracting K. Rool..."This is our big chance to vote anyone into the game and you're choosing a fat crocodile???" Makes them far more prone to choosing random characters instead of limiting themselves to who has a chance like some online fans do.

The other point is that, while the results themselves almost surely won't be published, something will, or else why say "responses may be published" and require names on all sites but the U.S. one? What's more, we did get some form of results for the old Melee poll fans voted in that Bowser won, divided by series. It'll be much harder to do nowadays with so many more series, first and third party, to cover, and the real chance that an impossible character outright wins, but it's not impossible either.
1. Nintendo has never directly said it was a straight up vote. They've always maintained it was a suggestion box.

2. "If There Were a Smash 2" Poll was the only time votes were publicly released. Sakurai said Sonic was the most requested character in Brawl, but there's no real proof of that besides his words. There's been a Smash Ballot for every game. This is just the first time its open to the rest of the world.

Here's what the Smash Ballot rules are in English. They will publish some of the votes in Japanese but not the actual results. Also, the data can be used for future releases.
 
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Skyblade12

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It might be better if we take this to PMs. It seems that people in this thread want to move on (sorry). If you are interested, maybe we can organize our thoughts and write up a debate for Source Gaming. Let me know if you are interested. I enjoy these kinds of debates, and I sincerely believe it's incredibly healthy for the community to have them.
Nah. I've gotten my point out there. And you are correct in saying we don't really have enough data one way or another. People can decide for themselves.
 

BKupa666

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My last post before moving onto something specifically related to K. Rool, the Smash Facebook page just mentioned the ballot for the first time since like April (how convenient of timing, huh?).

https://www.facebook.com/SmashBrosEN/posts/468466326660386

Here's a sample size of pseudo-casuals, who are interested enough in Smash to loosely follow it online, but not all of whom are hardcore fans. Look at how varied all those comments are. K. Rool is as mentioned as a dozen others, some possible, some impossible. The top votes are for a dank meme, Sonic characters and Snake. We as hardcore fans effectively the tiebreakers in a giant ballot with results like these, times a thousand.
 
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Morbi

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Two points that are worth hitting on...

People like to say that "online fans are deluded in thinking that the ballot is a vote and not a suggestion box." And yet, the people most prone to thinking it's a straight-up vote? Casuals. They aren't going to be browsing forums and second-guessing themselves because of users finger-wagging and claiming that the popular choices won't happen "because it's just a suggestion box." They'll think they can "vote a character into the game," regardless of who it is...kind of like those "Send a singer to perform in any country" polls where people vote to send Justin Bieber and Taylor Swift to North Korea. Heck, I've even seen online fans fall into this fallacy when detracting K. Rool..."This is our big chance to vote anyone into the game and you're choosing a fat crocodile???" Makes them far more prone to choosing random characters instead of limiting themselves to who has a chance like some online fans do.

The other point is that, while the results themselves almost surely won't be published, something will, or else why say "responses may be published" and require names on all sites but the U.S. one? What's more, we did get some form of results for the old Melee poll fans voted in that Bowser won, divided by series. It'll be much harder to do nowadays with so many more series, first and third party, to cover, and the real chance that an impossible character outright wins, but it's not impossible either.
To be fair, I do believe that the ballot is a suggestion box rather than a voting implement. That is not to say that the most popular choice will or will not be included or anything; however, writing out the character's name rather than choosing a pre-selected candidate makes me feel as though it acts more as a suggestion box. Along with the "what game are they from and why do you want them" text-boxes that are completely unecessary for a standard vote. It feels as though it is a tool to garner ideas. Albeit, an innate trait of this is that people are voting for characters that they want.

I just feel as though they wanted to keep the voting open, which is why they did not utilize pre-selected characters. But let us be honest, they are, more likely than not, well aware of all of the characters that are eating up 90% of the votes. So why bother allowing people to vote for the other 10%? My theory is that those are where the Mii costumes are coming from. That would insinuate that King K. Rool is a costume and nothing more, but on the other hand, I myself am not convinced that a costume "de-confirms" a character in the slightest.
 
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