Incredible Feats of Luck

[bluezaft]

So what's your experiences of amazingly good/bad luck?

For me...

Good:
1) I guessed my friend's locker combination on my first try in middle school. I had about a 1-in-3 chance of the last number since I saw the dial after he just closed the locker, and the dial always moves a set distance, but I totally just picked the first 2 numbers out of my butt and got them completely right.

2) Ok, I didn't know what shiny pokemon were at the time, and in Pokemon FireRed I was walking in some grass 30 minutes into the game when I came upon a weirdly-colored Mankey that twinkled. I couldn't catch it because I ran out of poke balls. I refilled, went back to the grass and found another shiny 4 Mankeys later. It wasn't until after that I looked up online that finding a shiny is a 1 in 8000-something chance.

3) In high school I was in a spelling/vocabulary UIL contest, where you get a huge list of words to memorize that you get quizzed on at the tournament. The thing is, they always throw in about 10 words that aren't on the last, so they can be anything at all. The night before the tournament I was reading Catch-22 and came upon this one word (I forget what it was, it starts with an F, so let's call it the F Word) that made me think "that's something that could be in the contest" so I looked it up. The next day right before the test was handed out I even reminded myself of the definition. The F Word ended up being one of those 10 random words. Thanks, Catch-22!



Bad luck:

So last year me and my ex found out about this smash tournament at a local game store that was giving a 2 Wiis away as prizes, 1 for 1st (plus a game) and the other for 2nd. It wasn't on smashboards, we just happened to stumble across it on the internet and nobody knew about it besides like 50 noobs that were the game store's customers. So we were going to go and get 1st and 2nd and be 2 Wiis richer.

Except...

Some guy from the store just happened to randomly walk into a certain lounge in a certain dorm at the University of Texas at Austin (an HOUR away from the tournament site) exactly when 6 of Texas' 10 best players were playing there and hand out flyers for the tournament. So there went $550 worth of beautiful, beautiful Nintendo products.

 

[Decoy Octopus]

I fell off the ladder at work once, banging one shoulder on a dumpster, then the other on the cement after I'd turned midair from the first bump. No dislocations, just a coupla painful-as-hell bruises.

I was pretty proud of that.

 

[Crimson King]

Don't believe in Luck. Just coincidences.

 

[commonyoshi]

Good luck:
Sunkist had a little contest a while back with a $30,000 car was the grand prize. There would be little paper tickets glued to the inside of each Sunkist (erm...) 12 pack, (?) with one of them being the "golden ticket" so to speak. I got this grand prize ticket.

*It even had the statistic of winning on it which was about 1 in 3,000,000 or something like that.

Bad luck:
The contest had officially been over for two days.

Edit: There is no such thing as luck. Only slaps to the face or presents presented from the power above. That Sunkist thing was a big slap in the face...

 

[Decoy Octopus]

What kind of car? That's total balls, man, I would be furious, haha.

 

[commonyoshi]

It was a $30,000 car. That's all that matters. >

I wish I had kept that winning game piece though. I lost it when I "cleaned" my room. Stupid how I lose things whenever I clean.

 

[Pluvia's other account]

They were building a safe little play area for the kids where I live, whilst they were, a car smashed through the fence, just missed one of the builders heads, and flipped 5 times through the air.

And I find this story actually quite creepy.

Seth MacFarlane, the creator of Family Guy, was told the wrong times by his flight agent, so he arrived at the airport 10 minutes after the final boarding of his plane. He was told he would have to wait for the next plane.

15 minutes later, the plane that he missed was hijacked, and was later flown into the North Tower of the World Trade Centre in New York City.

 

[Decoy Octopus]

Clearly, Muhammed McFarlane is the real mastermind.

 

[Rex+]

I was at one of those carnivals, and decided to give a shot at a quarter game where you flick a quarter onto a giant platform and try to get it in the center of a "rainbow." The more to the center the larger the prize, but the largest prize area was ridiculously small. It couldn't touch the black outline either.
First quarter I flick. I won their largest prize.

 

[LavisFiend]

Well, I nearly skewered myself on a jagged guardrail at my uncles old house. It was a stair case that had a very small square part in the middle for some weird reason. Anyways, I slipped and I was falling back and I nearly skewered myself on the guard rail...

ugh.

 

[fluffy]

2) Ok, I didn't know what shiny pokemon were at the time, and in Pokemon FireRed I was walking in some grass 30 minutes into the game when I came upon a weirdly-colored Mankey that twinkled. I couldn't catch it because I ran out of poke balls. I refilled, went back to the grass and found another shiny 4 Mankeys later. It wasn't until after that I looked up online that finding a shiny is a 1 in 8000-something chance.

I really doubt people tell the truth in forums nowadays :/
Finding a 'shiny' pokemon is 1 out of 8192. Finding another would make it 2 out of 16,384. Which is very, very, very, very, very, veryx100 rare. Probably even rarer than that. I've known people (including myself) who has never even come across a shiny. You don't even get the pokeradar early into the game so you wouldn't be able to go shiny hunting. I can almost guarantee that you did not see 2 shiny pokemon (2 of the SAME shiny pokemon) in a row. Especiallly when it's 30 minutes into the game. It's total bull. Sorry but it really is.

 

[Bailey]

OWNED VIA MY ASIAN TOMMY!

lol I passed my test.

 

[fluffy]

OWNED VIA MY ASIAN TOMMY!

lol I passed my test.

haha nice

btw when is there gonna be a smash tourney again?

 

[Jammer]

Finding a 'shiny' pokemon is 1 out of 8192. Finding another would make it 2 out of 16,384.

Silly fluffy can't do math.

Finding two shiny Pokemon in a row is (1/8192) * (1/8192) = 1/67,108,864.

Seeing two shiny Pokemon within 6 Pokemon sightings, as bluezaft claims to have done, has a probability of

(1/8192)^2 * (8191/8192)^4 * 6 * 5 =

1/67,108,864 * 4,501,401,006,735,361/4,503,599,627,370,496 * 30 =
4.4681 6597 0517 8056 3972 7528 3893 704 x 10^-7 ~= 1 in 2,238,054

You are about 3.5 times more likely to draw a Royal Flush than meet 2 shiny Pokemon within 6 meetings. So it is quite possible, if extremely unlikely.

At least I think that's right--I haven't done probabilities in three years.

EDIT: Just so you know, fluffy, 2 in 16,384 is the exact same as 1 in 8192.

 

[fluffy]

you're right. i was wrong.

but that's even unlikelier to have come across a shiny twice.

 

[LelandStanfordJr]

3) In high school I was in a spelling/vocabulary UIL contest, where you get a huge list of words to memorize that you get quizzed on at the tournament. The thing is, they always throw in about 10 words that aren't on the last, so they can be anything at all. The night before the tournament I was reading Catch-22 and came upon this one word (I forget what it was, it starts with an F, so let's call it the F Word) that made me think "that's something that could be in the contest" so I looked it up. The next day right before the test was handed out I even reminded myself of the definition. The F Word ended up being one of those 10 random words. Thanks, Catch-22!

All that and you FORGOT the word? Looks like luck must have run out

 

[MetalLuigi1209]

Good Luck-
One time when I was playing kickball in my school gym, I kicked it, it hit the rim of the basketball hooped, and bounced in. Lol, it seems kinda lame, but i thought it was cool :/.

I was down at a park, and some kid I knew, and who I didnt really like, thought he could be real tough, and he stole my bike. After about 10 seconds of riding it, he flips over the handle bars and starts crying. Lol, it made him seem like such a wuss, i love that memory.

Bad luck- while eating cafeteria food, I sometimes get random "chunks" when I get a chicken patty, meatball sub ect.
Again with cafeteria food, I was eating a Lays potato chip which had about a galon of salt inside it.

 

[Rici]

I only know good luck in my life.

When I was on vacation in Salou, I lost my cellphone after about a week. I thought I lost it in the tent I was sleeping, so I didn't really bother to search for it because I figured I'd automatically find it after a while. So the 2nd week past by, day by day, and I still hadn't found my phone. So on the last day we cleaned out the whole tent, looked through all my stuff, and still, no cellphone.

The bus home only left at 8 PM so we were just chilling on a bench. Suddenly a little 10 year old French kid(which we played tabletennis with before) passed us by, saw us and asked (in French) if we could help him fix his phone. The point was, the buttons didn't work anymore. Then I was thinking like: "he, some of my buttons didn't work either". So I looked at the phone and noticed it had exactly the same scratches on the screen as my phone, so I slid it open and found my own background picture on it. That kid had my cellphone! So after explaining him it was mine(in French, which I suck at) he gave it back to me, including my own SIM card. And all that just a few hours before we went home.

Now am I lucky or what?(it was a Samsung D520 btw, but got a new phone now )

 

[Teethpaste101]

I have pretty much no luck i always finish off second best sports skool work against my brother in games. The most lucky i have been is winning 5$ in a scratch and win witch my mum used to by milk and bread.

 

[Lightshade]

I've walked on water and lived.

 

[Drik Khaail]

13 years and not a single bus to be hit by yet! one of the few qualities of being opptomistic...

 

[PeeP]

Good: Playing pokemon and used the mew glitch and got a mew, normal right. next day i trade it to gold and its a shiny!!!

Back: Day after that the internal battery in gold dies and i lose the mew.

 

[Jammer]

I've fallen out of several trees, some of them when I was at least a couple stories high, and only a few scrapes and bruises.

In fact, I do tons of rather dangerous stuff, but I've only broken one bone, and that was my finger playing football (American football).

I guess I'm lucky with not getting injuries.

 

[Rex+]

Oh. Here's a close call...
I was doing homework, and I was rushing through it to go play outside afterwards. I ran down to the kitchen to go sharpen my pencil, and as I ran back, I fell down face first onto the carpet.
The good luck in this?
The sharpened end of the pencil was pointing straight up, only an inch away from my eye.

 

[Jammer]

Oh. Here's a close call...
I was doing homework, and I was rushing through it to go play outside afterwards. I ran down to the kitchen to go sharpen my pencil, and as I ran back, I fell down face first onto the carpet.
The good luck in this?
The sharpened end of the pencil was pointing straight up, only an inch away from my eye.

I heard a story about a young kid who had thrown his school supplies on his bed, then started jumping on the bed. He did a belly flop onto an up-pointing pencil which pierced his heart.

The good luck? The surgeons took out the pencil and he was fine.

 

[Red Exodus]

Well, the fact that I'm alive is the only luck I've had. I have poor luck all around, I have to rely on skill/brainz.

 

[NoSurprises]

I easily past the first mid-semester exam I had in Common Law by guessing for over 3/4 of the test, even plenty of free response questions.

Course, when I studied for the actual semester test, I not only scored less, but was one god**** point away from failing.

 

[bluezaft]

I really doubt people tell the truth in forums nowadays :/
Finding a 'shiny' pokemon is 1 out of 8192. Finding another would make it 2 out of 16,384. Which is very, very, very, very, very, veryx100 rare. Probably even rarer than that. I've known people (including myself) who has never even come across a shiny. You don't even get the pokeradar early into the game so you wouldn't be able to go shiny hunting. I can almost guarantee that you did not see 2 shiny pokemon (2 of the SAME shiny pokemon) in a row. Especiallly when it's 30 minutes into the game. It's total bull. Sorry but it really is.

It was NOT 2 in a row. Observe the phrase "4 Mankeys later." And that was just a total guess. There might have even been (gasp!) SIX Mankeys in between. The odds of finding another shiny within 6 tries after a first shiny is 1 in 1365.33333. Do you have any idea how many people play pokemon? This is going to happen.

Unless of course I'm just making it up and am trying to earn everyone respect and admiration by lying about...Pokemon.

 

[Jammer]

It was NOT 2 in a row. Observe the phrase "4 Mankeys later." And that was just a total guess. There might have even been (gasp!) SIX Mankeys in between. The odds of finding another shiny within 6 tries after a first shiny is 1 in 1365.33333. Do you have any idea how many people play pokemon? This is going to happen.

Thanks for doing good math, bluezaft (my calculator said 1 in 1365.75005..., but our answers are definitely close enough).

You have to admit, though, the feat was not in finding the one shiny Pokemon within four or six Mankeys or whatever. What was impressive (and improbable/lucky) was that you found two shiny Mankeys within five or seven Mankeys.

Finding a single shiny Mankey isn't that exciting. Finding two within a short while certainly is (well, depends on who you are).

So, I'd still go with my probability analysis (the 1 in 2,238,054 one). That's the probability of seeing any six Mankeys and having two of them be shiny.

Also, I don't think many people actually think you're lying about it. I think you're telling the truth. But it's not a big deal. I suggest just ignoring people who say you're lying.

Question: I've never actually played this Pokemon game (only Yellow and a little bit of Crystal for me), so I want to know: What exactly is a shiny Pokemon? Does it have special powers? Or does it just have a different sprite or what?

 

[bluezaft]

So, I'd still go with my probability analysis (the 1 in 2,238,054 one). That's the probability of seeing any six Mankeys and having two of them be shiny.

Yeah, but that's the odds of finding 2 shinies when you go and dleiberately run into only 6 pokemon. I didn't even know what shinies were at the time, so I wasn't looking for them. I had infinite tries to find that 1st one, the luck comes in when I found a 2nd one so soon after.

Fluffy made sort of the same mistake. The real probability of finding 2 shinies in a row is actually 1 in 8192, unless you say "ok I'm going to walk into that grass and the first 2 pokemon I find BETTER be shinies!"

EDIT: this has been Mathtacular Evenings With Bluezaft. Join us next time!

 

[MASAHIROx]

i almost died when i was 5 years old.

i crawled into a sewer and was exploring inside the sewer when i came to a gap that i knew i could not jump across. it was too slimy to get a good running jump. the hole was black and all water was puring into it. i knew i was dead if i messed up or slipped because the hole was very deep i did not know how to swim or tread water at the time. i would not be able to get out anyway. i decided that my exploring time was done and crawled out of the sewer hence saving my life.

 

[pablovirus]

My friends and I at school were killing time during lunch break and one stupid guy started throwing a hard plastic Set square around. When he hit me I threw it back at him, missed the target (omg..), and hit the guy that was behind him, who was totally unaware of what was going on. It impacted some milimetres below it's eye, it actually cut the inside of his lower eyelid but did not damage his eyeball.

I felt so sorry for him and ashamed of myself... he's such a good guy >.< he didn't even got angry.

Good luck in this? Last summer the same stupid guy who was throwing the Set square around during winter threw a rock to the air and guess where it landed? On my unsuspecting face, right between the eyes. So I guess people around, me included, have lucky eyeballs.
And one of these days I'm forward smashing this ******** man, he really got on my nerves.

 

[notftomearth7]

Good luck:


Some SMOKIN HAUT preppy dropped her little make up mini mirror thingy on the bus we were riding. I seized the oppurtunity, picked it up, got a phone number


Bad Luck:


I once got hit in the head, the stomach, and the Nethereigons with a soccer ball all during the course of a solitary soccer game

 

[Jammer]

The real probability of finding 2 shinies in a row is actually 1 in 8192, unless you say "ok I'm going to walk into that grass and the first 2 pokemon I find BETTER be shinies!"

I know what you're saying, but that only works if you start counting your shinies only after you get one (and you count the first one as one). And that doesn't really make sense in this situation.

 

[Percon]

Good Luck -

I got a 100 dollar bill as a tip at work the other day. I do photoshop all day underground and have no contact with the customers. Don't ask me how it happened. :/

Bad luck- Not my bad luck, but just someone I know.

I work with this guy, right? He seems kind of cool. Anyway, a few days after I start working, his ex-girlfriend starts working there, too. And a few days later, the girl he cheated on his ex with also comes to work at my location. And a few days after that, he snaps tendons in his hand and misses a week of work. The day after he gets back he gets into a car accident and breaks his leg. :/

???-

Once me and my brother were in the house and my dad was helping the neighbours with something next door. All of a sudden my brother says "Dad is bleeding" and sure enough, a minute later he comes out of their house and into ours with a nearly-severed thumb.

0_o

 

[Decoy Octopus]

Bad luck: A kid whammed me in the package with the leftmost handlebars, going fast, when I was walking home from work. It was an accident, so I couldn't even lay a beatdown. Owie.

Yes, Gabe, that's what the ice was for.

 

[SirroMinus1]

My nintendo ds light was falling and i caught it with my foot.

 

[NoSurprises]

...So it fell and you kicked it?

 

[KevinM]

I got hit by a car going thirty miles an hour, about a month ago.. walked away with only a badly sprained ankle and a serious concussion

I tech-rolled that ****

 

[Jammer]

I tech-rolled that ****

I actually really did laugh out loud at that. Congratulations; it doesn't happen often.