I am not convinced that tripping is random

[ANoobsOpinion]

I am not convinced that tripping is random, here is why…

First I would like to refer everyone to this video

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PmCtH2QTsPw


It appears that is has proven that tripping is random right? Not to me; what I get from this video is that it has somewhat showed that tripping is not random. I would like more tests to be done.

Let me go in depth of my analysis to this video and what got me to the conclusion. You notice that the far right Mario trips first (Notice that I am not mentioning player #, just the position of the Mario).

First test, he trips first. That is a 1/3 chance. That is 33%, so theoretically the left or middle Mario should be the first trip next right? That is to say if tripping is 100% random.

Second test, he is the first to trip again that is a 1/9 chance, that is about 11% chance of that happening if tripping was random.

Since only two tests were done on this video, and 100% of the time the 3rd Mario has tripped first this to me has not proved that tripping is random. If tripping was random then theoretically each Mario should trip 33.3% of the time.

I would like to see more tests done on this manner, if the 3rd Mario continues to trip first 100% of the time, then I am convinced that tripping is not random. For example, if 10 tests were done, and that 3rd Mario has tripped first 100% of the time, that is a 1/59049 chance of that happening which is about 0.00169%. And if tripping is random that is extremely unlikely to happen.

To conclude my statement, I am not convinced that tripping is random or I am not convinced that it is not random. I think more tests need to be done. And if tripping turns out to not be random, I would like to know what variables will set it off.

 

[Enoch-Fox]

gambler's fallacy
also 2 trials will not a perfectly random distribution make
gg trying maths

 

[ropep0202]

Ummm... haven't you learned of the law of independent probability?

 

[Lipucd]

Hate to tell you this but the topic that go into tripping show that its random...

There HAVE been test on this subject..maybe more then I care to name off...But enough to tell us that it happens randomly.

I didn't want to believe it ether when I saw it back when the game came out in Japan yet...

 

[calmchaos]

I know it's random but it feels like some actions encourage tripping more than others. Sometimes when I trip I'm not surprised and it feels like I expected it.
I know it's random, but that's just how it feels to me.
I also feels like I trip more with some characters than others. I trip ALL the time when I play wolf, but rarely ever does my falco or luigi trip.

Again don't flame... I know it's random.

 

[ANoobsOpinion]

gambler's fallacy
also 2 trials will not a perfectly random distribution make
gg trying maths

I’d like to see more than 2 trials

Ummm... haven't you learned of the law of independent probability?

Yes, that is what I based my math upon

Hate to tell you this but the topic that go into tripping show that its random...

There HAVE been test on this subject..maybe more then I care to name off...But enough to tell us that it happens randomly.

I didn't want to believe it ether when I saw it back when the game came out in Japan yet...

Ok? So where is this proof/tests? The closest thing I got for proof/test is that video, and that didn’t convince me, it did 2 trail runs where the right Mario tripped first. I would like to see it, not someone tell me that there has been tests.

I know it's random but it feels like some actions encourage tripping more than others. Sometimes when I trip I'm not surprised and it feels like I expected it.
I know it's random, but that's just how it feels to me.
I also feels like I trip more with some characters than others. I trip ALL the time when I play wolf, but rarely ever does my falco or luigi trip.

Again don't flame... I know it's random.

Yeah, tripping doesn’t bother me, but id like to know if it’s really random or not. Everyone seems to be convinced it's random just by that 1 video but I would like to see more tests to 100% confirm it's random.

 

[WastingPenguins]

...You DO realize that those 3 Marios are all plugged in to the same wavebird? That the controller input for each character is literally, exactly the same? That rules out any cause by movement or control-- and, uh, what else is there? How else can you explain the fact that one falls while two stand except by random chance?

 

[theONEjanitor]

^qft

and as mentioned before, you're committing gamblers fallacy. Plus you're being semantic.
The video doesn't technically prove that tripping is random
but it does prove that specific controller input isn't what causes it.

in fact, we already know its not random. its not possible for a program to be random, technically. Likely, the game was programmed for there to be a certain small percentage probability for each character (which we have discovered through this video is independent of the controller input) to trip when they run. and its probably higher percentage, when you've taken more damage. That's obvious, and if THAT'S what you're getting at, you're just being semantic and redundant.

The only thing this video was intended to prove was that there is no way to voluntarily control, invoke, or prevent tripping by doing or not doing something with controller at any given time.

 

[FoxLisk]

"That rules out any cause by movement or control-- and, uh, what else is there? How else can you explain the fact that one falls while two stand except by random chance?"

Environment, positioning. Hell, the developers could have made it be impacted by player number or character colour or time of day for all we know. The point that he's making, which is valid, is that two trials is not nearly enough. Did you notice that the character to the right was the first to fall each time (as in, the only time the middle mario fell was after the rightmost mario had)? That could be significant, or it could be meaningless.

No one is asking for exquisite accuracy here, but more trials are in order. I'll believe that tripping (at least in the limited, rather useless scenario of 3 of the same character running in place) is random if you do 20 or 30 tests and get a reasonably normal distribution. Until then I see no reason to do so.

 

[Mann]

For those who are saying it isn't random, then do tests yourselves and bring back your findings.

 

[shadydentist]

So, if you want to be nitpicky, nothing on a computer is ever truly random... it can always be predicted a bit. That being said, all 3 marios were controlled by the exact same input, and the game clearly doesn't follow the same sequence all the time. I don't foresee tripping ever being consistent to the point where it can be anticipated, beyond that it can happen whenever you tilt your control stick left or right.

 

[Yuna]

Environment, positioning.

They're on the same stage. Why would it matter where on the stage you are if it's the same surface?

Hell, the developers could have made it be impacted by player number or character colour or time of day for all we know.

Not even Sakurai is so stupid.

The point that he's making, which is valid, is that two trials is not nearly enough.

There's a whole thread about it. Hitaku did a lot of testing.

Did you notice that the character to the right was the first to fall each time (as in, the only time the middle mario fell was after the rightmost mario had)? That could be significant, or it could be meaningless.

As you earlier said, two occurences does not a rule make.

No one is asking for exquisite accuracy here, but more trials are in order. I'll believe that tripping (at least in the limited, rather useless scenario of 3 of the same character running in place) is random if you do 20 or 30 tests and get a reasonably normal distribution. Until then I see no reason to do so.

You think Hitaku only tried it once and then concluded everything he concluded in the Tripping-thread?

 

[DGMavn]

First test, he trips first. That is a 1/3 chance. That is 33%, so theoretically the left or middle Mario should be the first trip next right? That is to say if tripping is 100% random.

No. "Theoretically," each Mario has the same chance to be the next to trip if tripping is random. Just because it's random doesn't mean that it will be fair.

If we perform the same wavebird tripping test, the sequence:

1 trips 2 trips 3 trips 1 trips 2 trips 3 trips 1 trips 2 trips 3 trips

is just as likely as

1 trips 1 trips 1 trips 1 trips 1 trips 1 trips 1 trips 1 trips 1 trips

Specifically, given a test where we record the sequences of the first nine trips observed, those two sequences have the same 0.0050805263425% chance of occurring.

We may never see either sequence in 1000 trials, 10000 trials, or a million trials, but they are just as likely as any other sequence.

The test shown above does not prove that tripping is entirely random. What it did prove is that input *alone* is not the only factor that goes into tripping (since all three Marios were controlled by the same wavebird). We do not know from this test whether input does not affect tripping at all, or if it is simply one factor of many.

 

[rev]

I don't see how any of you think you can know how tripping really works without seeing the game code. You do something one time, you trip, you do it again you don't.

It could be random, It could be based on something you arn't thinking of. It could be based on something you can't even see or know.

I mean advanced techs are something you learn because it is repeatable. Not trolling but all of these conversations seem like a huge waste of effort.

No one really has any proof except that they can't figure out a why.

 

[ANoobsOpinion]

TO: WastingPenguins

Yeah I know that, please read my post carefully. I’m talking about why did the far right Mario trip first both trials? That does not prove 100% that it’s random.



TO: theONEjanitor

I know no computer is completely random. I’m NOT arguing that as a fact, plus it will take too much processing power to even compute the next event.

I’m saying this video does not prove 100% that tripping is random, like u stated in your reply.

The video doesn't technically prove that tripping is random
but it does prove that specific controller input isn't what causes it.

Most people on the forum are convinced that tripping is random from that video, I’m opening up a discussion for debate, based upon my above post. If it is random, then why did the right Mario trip first 100% of the time. (Not nearly enough testing has been done).



TO: FoxLisk

Thankyou, you seem to understand what I’m talking about; Yeah, more trials need to be done. Yeah if more tests were done and get reasonably normal distribution then I’m convinced it’s random.



TO: Mann

I honestly wish I could, those brawl haters emptied out the stores of copies of brawl I wish 1 of them would sell me there copy if they rather play melee. Plus I don’t have a wavebird.



TO: shadydentist

I’m not nitpicking that no computer is random, nitpicking that would not be valid argument to determine if tripping is random or not.



TO: Yuna

Can you please post me the link to this thread? I’d like to check it out.



TO: DGMavn

I think you’re somewhat agreeing with my point. I’ll reply to the first paragraph you said. I’m talking about general normal distribution. You are right with the fact that each Mario has a 1/3 chance of tripping again. But since only 2 tests were done, I had to say that there was more of a probability that the middle or left Mario would trip next. That is to say if it's random.



TO: rev

I’m not stating I know how tripping works. Based on my above post, I’m opening up a discussion for debate, why did that right Mario trip first 100% of the time? If 50 tests were done and that right Mario tripped first 100% of the time, maybe position of characters may be 1 trigger what causes someone to trip.

I would love to see the code to determine if it’s random or not.

 

[Witchking_of_Angmar]

What about the 100's of tests that Hitaku did, all showing that tripping is random? He even worked out a percentage, about 1%.

 

[Dark Sonic]

http://smashboards.com/showthread.php?t=140600&highlight=Tripping&page=20

See eight posts down. That will direct you throughout the thread so you can see all the information.

Tripping has already been extensively tested.

Ignore the name fight on the next page. It was already settled that we'd simply call teching whatever we want (if we didn't prefer the term ukemi). We'd also keep powershielding, and whatever else we've been accustomed too.

Have a nice day, but next time I hope I won't have to fish through so many threads just to find a good one.

 

[ANoobsOpinion]

Thanks for the link, I tested it myself on my friends copy of brawl. I am now convinced that its random.

My only concern would have to be is that the testing is hidden in that thread, and when I was first browsing the forums for any tests on tripping, all I found was that video link. It should be displayed a lot clearer.

I'm impressed with the amount of work that went into the tests tho. Well done.

Mod you can close this thread.

 

[Ganny]

I think that the script is initiated when certain conditions are met. I've only tripped when sharply turning directions. So there is probably a math problem where the variables get scrambled every input into a calculus formula. At least I think thats what they do for flash. Nothing on a computer can ever be random, it's all math... just really hard m a t h

 

[Cuzimwhiterite]

^qft

its not possible for a program to be random

As a computer programmer, I can tell you from experience, that making a random program is absolutely possible. All it takes is one line of code to make a random number.

 

[shadydentist]

As a computer programmer, I can tell you from experience, that making a random program is absolutely possible. All it takes is one line of code to make a random number.

Wrong. Lets say your programming in Java, and you use Math.random()

So, this gives you a completely random number bewteen 0 and 1 right? Wrong. What Java does is look up a number in its random number table. It seems random, because the table is huge, but if you know where in the table a random number generator is, you can predict exactly which number its going to output next.

As someone who is designing a processor for a class, I can tell you that currently, it is impossible for a computer to output a truly random number.

 

[robman1]

^^^

comps aren't random.

More like an extremely large chain of predetermined numbers.

 

[WastingPenguins]

I hate to interrupt the mathematics debate but does it really matter whether or not it is random in the purest sense? Perhaps computers cannot be truly random, but who cares if they can simulate randomness well enough that we can't tell the difference?

 

[infernovia]

As someone who is designing a processor for a class, I can tell you that currently, it is impossible for a computer to output a truly random number.

Technicalities. Are you saying we are going to seriously analyze the processor and the algorithms so that we can understand when and where we will trip? No? Then it is considered random for all practical purposes.

 

[WhiteCarnation]

I think random is being used in the sense it's an uncontrollable variable

 

[Mario & Sonic Guy]

Tripping can be a nuisance, especially when you're trying to run.

 

[MrSilver]

Actually, saying that tripping is completely unrelated to controller input is not true. After all, have any of you ever seen a character trip while they where just standing still and doing nothing? So it seems that certain actions come with a chance to trip. The question then is, what actions have such a chance to trip and how big is that chance? So far it seems pretty definite dashing and generally smashing the control stick causes tripping. There could be other actions that cause it as well.

Hell, the developers could have made it be impacted by player number or character colour or time of day for all we know.

Actually, time of day is not as unlikely as it sounds. Many RNG's (Random Number Generators) use a seed based on variances in built in time keeping mechanisms of a computer. So in essence the final random number will be decided by the time it was run. However, we're talking about very tiny variances, so from a practical point of view it's impossible to predict.

 

[Knight-errant]

in statistics it's best to have 30 or more trials. So don't make any conclusions until you've done it that many times or more.

 

[Dragonjojo]

Qft

Tripping can be a nuisance, especially when you're trying to run.

Quoted For Truth

 

[Zialox]

you may very well be right ( I doubt it) but your logic phails.
Probability is determined independantly, I could go on but people here have already explained it so I won't go into unnessesary detail.

 

[Taymond]

Before this thread falls off the map, I'd like to thank the OP for being open to evidence contrary to his beliefs. It's perfectly okay to be dubious about things, but you should be willing to listen to what other people have to say if you're going to make threads about those doubts. One shouldn't make discussion threads solely to pointedly ignore any evidence that goes against their own beliefs.

You acted like any good poster, and I thank you. Any hostility you took here was undeserved. I'm glad to see now everyone who proposes that the community is wrong is not hopelessly stubborn.

 

[Ganny]

Actually, saying that tripping is completely unrelated to controller input is not true. After all, have any of you ever seen a character trip while they where just standing still and doing nothing? So it seems that certain actions come with a chance to trip. The question then is, what actions have such a chance to trip and how big is that chance? So far it seems pretty definite dashing and generally smashing the control stick causes tripping. There could be other actions that cause it as well.

Actually, time of day is not as unlikely as it sounds. Many RNG's (Random Number Generators) use a seed based on variances in built in time keeping mechanisms of a computer. So in essence the final random number will be decided by the time it was run. However, we're talking about very tiny variances, so from a practical point of view it's impossible to predict.

Thats what I said except with a little more speculation

 

[Shepp]

the dice have no memory

 

[Battousai780]

Not even Sakurai is so stupid.

While I do believe that tripping is random, I don't agree with you here. He was obviously stupid enough to invent tripping. `Nuff said.

 

[Adel]

I like tripping, sir. It adds comedic flair to the battlefied and thats the idea. Where do you think the banana peel came from. It doesnt really do anything. You fall. Its funny. Haha!

 

[CodeytheRhino]

Tripping is random. It has been proved more than once. I've been a member for like 3 days and I've already seen more than 1 thread about it. /thread

 

[Battousai780]

I like tripping, sir. It adds comedic flair to the battlefied and thats the idea. Where do you think the banana peel came from. It doesnt really do anything. You fall. Its funny. Haha!

The banana peel is controllable, tripping isn't. I can't wait for the last round of an MLG tourny that determines who walks away with 10,000 dollars ends up with someone dying because they tripped.

 

[RBinator]

I like tripping, sir. It adds comedic flair to the battlefied and thats the idea. Where do you think the banana peel came from. It doesnt really do anything. You fall. Its funny. Haha!

Would you be laughing if you tripped randomly and missed out on thousands of prize dollars because of it?

I also believing random tripping was added for humor during casual play, but on a professional level, random tripping has no place in a strictly skill based setting.