Elma for Smash Ultimate: Strength comes from experience. That’s true on any planet.

[Calamitas]

I honestly wouldn't assume that Isabelle was a character that scored low on the Ballot. There might've been a lot more casual fans that liked Animal Crossing, voted for her, and didn't partake in any fan polls.

 

[PSIGuy]

Isabelle getting in makes me really doubt Elma's chances. She was obviously popular enough to get her own moveset instead of being an Echo so we can probably expect more characters like her. Wouldn't be surprised if we got Lillie as the new Pokemon rep for similar reasons. Maybe the Direct was just so underwhelming after being delayed that it killed a lot of my excitement for Smash in general.

 

[Rie Sonomura]

At least Elma isn’t outright deconfirmed. Let’s not lose hope yet

What if there’s a Smash direct every two months and she’s revealed then? Also less likely, Tokyo Game Show? She could be revealed in a JP only thing that’s later posted worldwide like her series predecessor Shulk

 

[Luviant X]

Granted verg has sketchy sources, just because one thing came true doesn't necessarily mean everything he claims will be. Also, there could be more he doesn't know about.

Sure, he also said he doesn't know everything. Just basing things off what he's said with how much time's left before release. A matter of fact, he was as shocked as we were when KKR, Daisy, and others were revealed.

But on the other hand, he's called Ridley, Simon, Isabelle, etc. Enough for one to believe a Gen 7 rep and Square rep will be in. And if that's true, for Elma to be in, there needs to be three more non echoes to be revealed between now and release.

 

[jimbozo]

I'm not really convinced that this lowers her chances. I'm sure there will be another direct or something before December, and we haven't seen anything on a Xenoblade X port, which I can almost guarantee will happen if they're giving one to Mario Bros. U. It will likely be a tie-in like with Isabelle and AC Switch at this point.

 

[Homelessvagrant]

I honestly wouldn't assume that Isabelle was a character that scored low on the Ballot. There might've been a lot more casual fans that liked Animal Crossing, voted for her, and didn't partake in any fan polls.

You could say that about any character honestly. While you do have a point to some regard, I find this circumstance highly unlikely as popularity in ballot should have some ripple effect to fan perception online. So yes, it is a possible outcome, I still think generally speaking her reveal is slightly favorable for us.

If there is anything concerning to take from this reveal, it would be the fact that a semi clone was shown already. This might signify that they are running out of solid reveals. However I believe her reveal was more to line up with the Animal Crossing reveal that Nintendo needed to make. Business wise this was the ideal time to show a playable Elma, however now with more clarity we know that this was a more ideal time to build up Animal Crossing hype to excite both fans and investors. Maybe I'm just too optimistic but I still think Elma is the second most likely character to be in the game.

 

[Luviant X]

While I do think her chances took a hit, she still does have a chance. It's odd nothing Xenoblade (or X specifically) has been shown in Ultimate yet, even though X was released at the perfect time to be included in the game. Unlike Waluigi, Ashley, Bomberman, Takamaru, and others, she's survived three directs now without being deconfirmed.

Until the game releases, there's still hope she's in.

 

[Homelessvagrant]

true but I don't think that would matter much if say Shulk or other Xenoblade stuff was blogged one day. As we can see Villager was blogged a couple weeks before Isabelle.

 

[Coofle DeDoofle]

Sure, he also said he doesn't know everything. Just basing things off what he's said with how much time's left before release. A matter of fact, he was as shocked as we were when KKR, Daisy, and others were revealed.

But on the other hand, he's called Ridley, Simon, Isabelle, etc. Enough for one to believe a Gen 7 rep and Square rep will be in. And if that's true, for Elma to be in, there needs to be three more non echoes to be revealed between now and release.

My safest bets on those three non-Echos and two reps:

• Decidueye as the Pokemon rep (I know Verg said it wouldn't be him, but I want it to be)
• Geno as the Square rep (he technically is one)
• Bandana Dee
• A Rhythm Heaven rep
• Another third-party character

 

[Rie Sonomura]

Also I think the fact that Fiora was added to Shulk’s Final Smash, thus being the only technically NEW piece of Xenoblade content up till now, it focused on the first game still, and not X.

No X content up until now bodes very well for Elma imo

Sure, he also said he doesn't know everything. Just basing things off what he's said with how much time's left before release. A matter of fact, he was as shocked as we were when KKR, Daisy, and others were revealed.

But on the other hand, he's called Ridley, Simon, Isabelle, etc. Enough for one to believe a Gen 7 rep and Square rep will be in. And if that's true, for Elma to be in, there needs to be three more non echoes to be revealed between now and release.

Excluding Incineroar and the mystery Square rep:

1. Lloyd Irving. Or maybe Dixie Kong or Black Shadow as semi-clones a la isabelle
2. Waddle Dee
3. Chorus Kids

 

[aarchak]

Well, let's hope. We won't be getting Smash news for at least another month, so we might as well get some patience. We might not see Elma for a while.

 

[Luviant X]

Yeah, I meant X content specifically hasn't been shown. That's a good sign.

 

[GolisoPower]

Isabelle may have taken the spotlight (And not like New Leaf), but we musn't lose hope! Elma shall hopefully be announced in the future...

 

[Calamitas]

Yeah, I suppose it's best for now to just not lose hope, and continue waiting until the next Direct or character reveal. Like others already said, not a bit of X content being shown off yet does bode kind of well, really.
And also, on an unrelated note: The next unique newcomer is going to have to bear the burden/honour of being fighter #69. That's gonna be interesting.

 

[Rie Sonomura]

Tbh part of me WANTS Vergeben to leak Elma, Waddle Dee, Chorus Kids and Black Shadow tbh, as well as reveal the Square character’s identity (I hope it’s Neku).

At least I can rest easy that way, those guys are all I want the most, anyone else is icing on the cake

Now that Loz’s credibility went down the toilet I don’t have to worry about Skull Kid getting in before Elma (which I have a feeling SK is a boss)

 

[Danpal65]

Until we find out what the deal is with Sakurai and that mech figure I'm holding out hope for Elma.

 

[Loz18-Echo]

whew i'm upset as a Elma fan of course but Congratz to all Isabelle fans out there.

I haven't lost hoped but as Rie Sonomura said I'm hoping Verge at least says there is still more fighters left that he doesn't know.

But thank ****ing god Loz18 is out about freaking time

 

[Nonno Umby]

Let's not freak out. Isabelle is a semi clone, and we know that they don't take the same amount of time as completely unique. Sakurai even confirmed this when he talked about adding Wolf in Brawl instead of Krystal.
By looking at her trailer you see she is extremely based on the Villager, even more than other semi clones, so she might even have been planned as a echo but promoted to semi clone when they had spare time, and decided to reveal her now in order to tie her with the new AC.
Just look at this: https://youtu.be/uzKYis0DWzw

Let's not forget all the things we have for Elma: no Xenoblade X content so far, the Sawano secret project, the Caitlin Glass vagueness...Elma is just as likely as before. We also know that next week music is going to be AC so for another while we are safe about Xenoblade music.

Let's not lose our hope, the fight for survival must go on even on a different planet!

Also I'm going to repeat myself, but I loved that Direct. Luigi's Mansion 3, Katamari, almost all the PS exlusive Final Fantasy (even FFVII aka Square's middle finger to Nintendo back in the '90), Yoshi, Daemon X Machina, Torna and the new Animal Crossing are all great things for me. 2019 looks to be an amazing year lol.

 

[Coofle DeDoofle]

Tbh part of me WANTS Vergeben to leak Elma, Waddle Dee, Chorus Kids and Black Shadow tbh, as well as reveal the Square character’s identity (I hope it’s Neku).

At least I can rest easy that way, those guys are all I want the most, anyone else is icing on the cake

Now that Loz’s credibility went down the toilet I don’t have to worry about Skull Kid getting in before Elma (which I have a feeling SK is a boss)

Yeah, Skull Kid feels more like boss material in this game than anything else.

I'm personally expecting at least one more Smash-focused Direct, possibly in October, that'll reveal more than one character. That and there's the possibility of a TGS surprise reveal. So let's keep on hopin'...

 

[Rie Sonomura]

Yeah, Skull Kid feels more like boss material in this game than anything else.

I'm personally expecting at least one more Smash-focused Direct, possibly in October, that'll reveal more than one character. That and there's the possibility of a TGS surprise reveal. So let's keep on hopin'...

Has there ever been a Smash reveal at TGS? Even in the Brawl days?

 

[lizard1929]

+1 music theory still works for Xeno
+1 leaker destruction

-1 slot gone
-1 people are expecting big drops and I don't know if Elma counts

 

[GolisoPower]

Also I'm going to repeat myself, but I loved that Direct. Luigi's Mansion 3, Katamari, almost all the PS exlusive Final Fantasy (even FFVII aka Square's middle finger to Nintendo back in the '90), Yoshi, Daemon X Machina, Torna and the new Animal Crossing are all great things for me. 2019 looks to be an amazing year lol.

Preach it, brutha! I have fond memories of playing Katamari on PS1, and with FFVII finally on a Nintendo console, Cloud finally had a reason to stay in Smash Bros besides being the most popular FF character! And there were people out there saying that Simon’s trailer was hinting at Luigi’s Mansion 3, and guess what? THEY ******* KNEW IT!

 

[Kotor]

Sure, he also said he doesn't know everything. Just basing things off what he's said with how much time's left before release. A matter of fact, he was as shocked as we were when KKR, Daisy, and others were revealed.

But on the other hand, he's called Ridley, Simon, Isabelle, etc. Enough for one to believe a Gen 7 rep and Square rep will be in. And if that's true, for Elma to be in, there needs to be three more non echoes to be revealed between now and release.

Don't forget Ken. He dismissed a Gamefaqs text leak for not including Ken.

 

[Nonno Umby]

+1 music theory still works for Xeno
+1 leaker destruction

-1 slot gone
-1 people are expecting big drops and I don't know if Elma counts

Eh, slots has never been a real argument, especially since we don't know how many are left. Could be 2, could be 6. I'm currently predicting 8 more characters, echo included, so you might never know lol.

Also usually what people expect is the opposite of what we get. And the idea of them only doing big characters... well Isabelle just Smashed that idea trough the window.


Also I really think that we have seen all the stages after this reveal, so no new franchises, no Rhythm Heaven, no Isaac. Which means that the big ones remaining fighting for being a unique character are Geno, Gen VII Pokémon, Bandana Dee and Elma. Two fan favourites and two relevant but unique choices. A perfect match.

 

[Homelessvagrant]

Also usually what people expect is the opposite of what we get. And the idea of them only doing big characters... well Isabelle just Smashed that idea through the window.

well could you say she turned smash speculation "over a new leaf?"

 

[GolisoPower]

well could you say she turned smash speculation "over a new leaf?"

BADUM-TSS!

 

[Nonno Umby]

well could you say she turned smash speculation "over a new leaf?"

That pun is great! I watched the Italian version and it was just a generic "Joins the battle!". They didn't even managed to put "Smash" in her final phrase, where she just goes "I fight too!". Sometimes the Italian translators can be very boring and unimaginative sadly. But that's a topic for another discussion.


But I was thinking: there has been an "unofficial" leak of almost the whole Direct: Jon from GamexPlain literally predicted all the FF ports, Isabelle in Smash as a Unique character rather than an echo, the Kirby's Epic Yarn 3DS port and the new AC in their latest "prediction". He CLEARLY had inside sources (in previous discussion he was the first to bring up Ridley amd Simon too), so we should keep an eye on him to see if he ever mentiones Elma.

 

[FrostShock]

We still haven't heard anything about that mystery mode that Sakurai teased, so we'll absolutely be getting at least one more in depth look at Ultimate before release. Maybe it'll even be another Smash focused Direct.

Also I'm going to repeat myself, but I loved that Direct. Luigi's Mansion 3, Katamari, almost all the PS exlusive Final Fantasy (even FFVII aka Square's middle finger to Nintendo back in the '90), Yoshi, Daemon X Machina, Torna and the new Animal Crossing are all great things for me. 2019 looks to be an amazing year lol.

2019 for the Switch is going to be fire. Metroid Prime 4, Fire Emblem Three Houses, Pokemon gen 8, Luigi's Mansion 3 and Animal Crossing. We just need X 2 added to that.

 

[Megadoomer]

Isabelle getting in makes me really doubt Elma's chances. She was obviously popular enough to get her own moveset instead of being an Echo so we can probably expect more characters like her. Wouldn't be surprised if we got Lillie as the new Pokemon rep for similar reasons. Maybe the Direct was just so underwhelming after being delayed that it killed a lot of my excitement for Smash in general.

Isabelle may not be an echo, but she's definitely a semi-clone - she has many of Villager's moves, including his throw, Pocket, and Final Smash. She wouldn't take up as much time to make as a completely unique character would, so I don't see how her inclusion impacts Elma's chances either way.

 

[Homelessvagrant]

I don't know. I'm still on the fence if she's a semi clone or not. from what we know, she shares three moves with Villager; Luigi shares more with Mario and I don't think anyone considers him a semi clone. To be honest most time and effort would go into balancing, which they would have to do with Isabelle from what we've seen. Still I don't think that matters, I don't remember Isabelle not being an echo ever meant no Elma.

 

[Nonno Umby]

Isabelle may not be an echo, but she's definitely a semi-clone - she has many of Villager's moves, including his throw, Pocket, and Final Smash. She wouldn't take up as much time to make as a completely unique character would, so I don't see how her inclusion impacts Elma's chances either way.

I'm quite convinced that she was started as an echo but they used the spare time to better differentiate her (since she easely is more popular than Daisy, Chrom, Dark Samus or Richter). That would also explain that lame trailer, which most likely just used models and assets from the new Animak Crossing rather than an actual CGI.

I don't know. I'm still on the fence if she's a semi clone or not. from what we know, she shares three moves with Villager; Luigi shares more with Mario and I don't think anyone considers him a semi clone. To be honest most time and effort would go into balancing, which they would have to do with Isabelle from what we've seen. Still I don't think that matters, I don't remember Isabelle not being an echo ever meant no Elma.

She shares a lot of moves and animations but with different effects. Like her down smash, her up tilt,the Final Smash...she is on par as Toon Link,most likely speaking. And they also showed just 25 second of gameplay in her 2+ minutes reveal trailer, that should be telling enough that her movest is extremely self explanatory as a semi clone.

 

[MoonlitIllusion]

I don't know. I'm still on the fence if she's a semi clone or not. from what we know, she shares three moves with Villager; Luigi shares more with Mario and I don't think anyone considers him a semi clone. To be honest most time and effort would go into balancing, which they would have to do with Isabelle from what we've seen. Still I don't think that matters, I don't remember Isabelle not being an echo ever meant no Elma.

Isabelle is pretty much a lucas/wolf style semi-clone. She has his pocket, his grab and presumably throws, his dash attack, his final smash, her up special is similar, and her down special looks like a mix of the tree animation and the loid rocket animations. She also looks to borrow from others if her inkling esque down smash and possibly peach nair is anything to go by. The trailer also skips out on quite a few moves so for all we know they're the same as villager.

 

[Wisehunter]

Well, that sucks. Okay so if Elma is in and Xenoblade X port is already in the makes, I would expect it to be announced on the day the game was released in the West, which is 4th December if I recall well, which is very close to smash ultimate release, which will probably be featured in a direct in December. If that is the case we will have to wait a lot to know if she is in or not. A torture basically.

 

[Homelessvagrant]

She shares a lot of moves and animations but with different effects. Like her down smash, her up tilt,the Final Smash...she is on par as Toon Link,most likely speaking. And they also showed just 25 second of gameplay in her 2+ minutes reveal trailer, that should be telling enough that her movest is extremely self explanatory as a semi clone.

Her up tilit is completely different from Villagers. She sweeps in an arc where Villager tilts the stick upward and rotates it creating a lingering hitbox. Down smash is also different; it appears to look more akin to Inkling's down smash then Villagers. The only thing her down smash shares with Villager's is the fact that it hits in both directions (like most down smashes). I'll admit I forgot the dash attack so I guess she shares four moves with Villager. But she appears to have a unique side special and down special and potentially up special.

So I guess I have to question what a semi clone is then, but for the sake ease of mind I'll just accept that she is an semi clone and go on with my day.

 

[Rie Sonomura]

Well, that sucks. Okay so if Elma is in and Xenoblade X port is already in the makes, I would expect it to be announced on the day the game was released in the West, which is 4th December if I recall well, which is very close to smash ultimate release, which will probably be featured in a direct in December. If that is the case we will have to wait a lot to know if she is in or not. A torture basically.

It would fit tho, cause The wind blows hard in December...

Sakurai seems to want to make the reveals more memorable now

 

[Nonno Umby]

Her up tilit is completely different from Villagers. She sweeps in an arc where Villager tilts the stick upward and rotates it creating a lingering hitbox. Down smash is also different; it appears to look more akin to Inkling's down smash then Villagers. The only thing her down smash shares with Villager's is the fact that it hits in both directions (like most down smashes). I'll admit I forgot the dash attack so I guess she shares four moves with Villager. But she appears to have a unique side special and down special and potentially up special.

So I guess I have to question what a semi clone is then, but for the sake ease of mind I'll just accept that she is an semi clone and go on with my day.

Grab, Final Smash and neutral b are the exact same, while the dash, up b and down b are very similar, but with variants. They look more like custom moves for the Villager rather than completely original. Also a lot of her moves and animation can be compared with other characters on the roster (like the down b similar to Inkling).
She looks to be a semi clone the same way Wolf is, who also was a sort of Frankeinstein Monster with moves taken from Fox, Falco, Sonic, Marth...
And we know that Wolf didn't took the same amount of time a completely original character would have, otherwise he would have made Krystal.

 

[Dr. Jojo Phantasma]

I'm actually expecting Elma to be revealed next if she is in. It was never going to be her, Issac or Geno as a general direct like this one needed a more casual popular character like Isabelle.

 

[Nonno Umby]

I'm actually expecting Elma to be revealed next if she is in. It was never going to be her, Issac or Geno as a general direct like this one needed a more casual popular character like Isabelle.

You are right. We went with Elma because we immediately assumed that a port of X was going to be announced...but what if they really haven't started working on it yet? If she is in she was picked regardless of the port back in December 2015, but being a more obscure character she would benefit from being revealed in a Smash Direct.
Especially if her moveset has some kind of gimmick, which would probably need Sakurai to explain and showcase. Notice how the more obvious and standard characters like Ridley and KKR weren't explained while Inklings with their ink mechanic and Simon's long reach whip were.

 

[Izayoi]

Elma with weapon switching mechanic... two movesets in one character. Almost like Pkmn Trainer but no new weight, height, gravity. Just Elma with different weapons. :D

 

[ColtonS25]

You are right. We went with Elma because we immediately assumed that a port of X was going to be announced...but what if they really haven't started working on it yet? If she is in she was picked regardless of the port back in December 2015, but being a more obscure character she would benefit from being revealed in a Smash Direct.
Especially if her moveset has some kind of gimmick, which would probably need Sakurai to explain and showcase. Notice how the more obvious and standard characters like Ridley and KKR weren't explained while Inklings with their ink mechanic and Simon's long reach whip were.

That's actually a really good point. Clearly, Sakurai just wanted to reveal a newcomer this direct that would be easy enough that he wouldn't have to appear to explain Isabelle's complexities. He really did need to explain Simon, as his whip mechanic seems very unique (excluding Sheik's chain from Melee). If we get a Smash direct in October, I could see Elma being revealed. If she has weapon switching mechanics, that will need more explanation than the average echo or standard newcomer. The thing with Ultimate is that these characters were most likely finalized before any ports were even thought about. if we are getting Elma, the X port might not even have started development. Sakurai doesn't plan character reveals around new game announcements, as far as I can tell. Isabelle might have just been in the right place at the right time.