There are some Predictions and Theories I have regarding CP11 and the other DLC content for Smash Ultimate. Alot of this is personal interpretation, but take of it as it will
When the CP11 Reveal will take Place, and when will be released?
Because TGS is on the Week after Next week, and because Nintendo does not like overlapping with events, I'm thinking next week might be the timeframe we could expect the Next Smash reveal
Part of the reason I think this is because of when I think the character might be released, which is October 5th
There is Maintenance on that day for Prepaid cards and Download codes. Typically those things are used more for Eshop exclusive content, like DLC. the only thing that's kind of throwing me off is the the time of when the Maintenance would end goes past the time we typically get a New Smash character (around 9 EST).
Typically with FP2 characters, We get the character revealed 1-2 weeks before the character comes out. Depending on how the character is revealed, will determine how things play out
-Reveal and Sakurai presentation at Same time, Release 1-2 weeks later
-Reveal with Sakurai presents 1-2 weeks later. Release either on the day of or the next day after
I think no matter what happens though, I think we are getting CP11 around early October, with October 5th being the specific date I think the character will release.
If we are taking rumors from "Insiders" into consideration, Natedrake did say that there would be a Presentation in September, note the word Presentation. I think there is a good chance that we could get a Separate Smash Presentation, rather than Smash reveal in a Nintendo Direct.
Mii Costumes
There are some Characters I think might end up being Mii Costumes in the future
Kris from Deltarune: This is especially true after the reveal of Deltarune chapter 2 recently. Some of the Mii Costumes in FP2, most notably the Capcom Mii Costumes, have been chosen due to recent games coming out or in the near future. Even beyond that, Deltarune is a game that already has had hype around it due to Chapter 1, and more coming in the future
This also might be a reason why Undertale Spirit event has not happened yet. They might be waiting for all Undertale related Mii Costumes to be added, before doing the spirit event. Deltarune doesn't take place in the Undertale universe, but is heavily associated with it and said to take place in Alternate universe from it, which implies connection
Ryu Hayabusa: I think Hayabusa will definitely get some content in Smash before everything is over. the responses in the interview, including the one that said "No Plans were in motion" seemed to be heavily canned in responses, like it's a rehearsed phrase told to be said in response to a question about Smash.
Shovel Knight: Considering there's already a Model of Shovel Knight in the game already, similar to Bomberman, the other Indie Costumes like Sans, Cuphead, and Shantae, and that he's a popular character, I think it's very likely for him to be a Mii Costume
Siegfried/Nightmare: To be honest, I think this is a little inspired by the "Soul Calibur content in Smash leak", along with Nightmare's name being heard in inside circles apparently. It is weird that these costumes would come after Kazuya Mishima Mii costume wave, but we have had costumes coming later from Companies with Fighters. Plus especially if it's 2 Costumes in one pack, that might explain it
Jack Frost: SMTV is coming out later this year, and Jack Frost is the Mascot of that Franchise (and Atlus in general it seems). He would also fit better as a Mii Costumes than someone like Nahobino since it's easier to get assets from (since Nahobino is so new) and that Jack Frost is more Iconic design and has fanbase already
Peely: Yes Peely from Fortnite. There's been signs of Epic Games having some sort of content in the game, more precisely due to the interview from zoom, but also the fact that there's a timeline for Nintendo and Epic to talk, since Samus was at least in planning for Fortnite. I would say Peely would be the Costume over Jonsey since Peely is a much more distinct Design, and Peely is a Popular, recognizable character within the Fortnite universe
Alucard: He was considered to be the Castlevania rep due to his Popularity and recognizability, and there already is a Model of him in the game.
Amy Rose: Personally this is because she is prominent within the Sonic Media, but also because she would complete the Sonic Mii Costume triangle of Brawler (Knuckles), Gunner (Tails), and hypothetically now Swordfighter (Amy)
Spirit Events
And here are the Spirit Events I think we will end up getting in the future
Undertale/Deltarune: Again after the costumes, we will get the Spirit event
Shin Megami Tensi: After Jack Frost comes out, and will feature Nahobino
Metroid Dread: A event Inspired by the Metroid Dread game
Gooigi: I think Gooigi will show up in a Random event similar to Lotus from Warframe
Some of the Costumes mentioned could show up as Playable characters, and there are probably franchises/Characters not mentioned that could be getting some form of content in the game. This is just what I'm thinking at the moment
Who I think Challenger Pack 11 is?
I think Challenger Pack 11 might be Shadow the Hedgehog
Shadow The Hedgehog meets the Criteria I think Nintendo and Sakurai will look at when Choosing Fighters. Shadow is
-From a Iconic and Popular gaming franchises, one of the Most Popular in the world
-Shadow himself being a Popular character, both inside and outside of Smash
-Not only has worked with Sega on Smash Specifically, but Shadow himself already has been licensed for 3 Smash games now
-Nintendo audiences love Sonic
-Relevancy still intact.
-As Decades worth of material to compose into a Moveset
Beyond that, I think there are some things that indicate Shadow was one of the chosen FP2 characters. Alot of this might sound like Conspiracy, but there is merit to the possibility of these stuff meaning something
-Nintendo did takedown a Shadow the Hedgehog Smash Remix (Specifically I Am... All of Me). This is similar to what happened with Banjo, Sans, and Geno, who all ended up getting content in Smash. In regards to Geno, while he didn't come with a music track himself, the Track takendown was the track used for his his Trailer, which has it's own Licensing. Though also there was a 2nd Geno track taken down, but more on that later
-The Legacy XP takedown, which was rumored to have been taken down due to conflicts with upcoming DLC content in Smash Ultimate. Shadow was one of the characters in the mod not in Smash Ultimate. It's been common that certain Fangames or Mods were taken down due to conflict with upcoming content, most specifically AM2R, and Super Mario Battle Royale (due to Metroid Returns and Super Mario 35 respectfully)
This had more attention paid to it due to a Certain Popular Smash Speculator saying there was 100% evidence that applied to characters in the Legacy XP mod. This Smash Speculator was so certain on it that he never made a video on it because he was afraid it might put the source in jeopardy
For the Contents of the Challenger Pack, I think the following will be true
-Shadow Himself will be a Very Heavily Aggressive Character with All Offense, Little Defense. He will have lots of Mobility options, and I think will overall have Littler Startup and Little Endlag
will have his Special Moves be Chaos Based (Chaos Control, Chaos Warp, Chaos Spear, Chaos Boost/Chaos Blast)
-I think like how Kazuya brought back unique Initial Jump frames, I think Shadow will have Momentum Jumping mechanic, from both Melee, and more importantly the Sonic Series
-He Also will have to build up Speed, instead of just being able to Run normally, just like in Sonic. There will probably be moves or Maneuvers that allow him to gain Speed very quick
-Spindash and Homing attack will be Normal Attacks (Side Smash and Zair)
-Shadow won't have Shield, and will be heavy on Teleporting instead. Instead of Airdodge, it will be 3 Smaller Chaos Warps he can do, and instead of Shielding, it's a Type of stance Shadow can do to do Specific Attacks or Teleport cancel
-Chaos Boost won't be a Comeback mechanic, but either a Snowball Mechanic, or a Transformation that can be activated anytime with it's Pros and Cons
-Final Smash will have Super Shadow involved
-In regards to Stage, I'm thinking the Space Colony Ark, or the Death Egg.
-In regards to Spirits, it will have characters That are deeper cuts than the characters already Spirited in the game (like Tikal, Mephiles, Mighty, Ray, etc). Knuckles will also now have a Spirit Battle
-In regards to Music, will take the most material from SA2, SA1, 06, and Unleashed, but will also include material from Heroes, Shadow, Colors, Forces, and more perhaps
The Topic of Bonus Fighters
I think Bonus fighters COULD still be possible. I don't think FP3 is happening, but I think Bonus Fighters could have been planned early on, but Sakurai might word it to seem like it was a much more recent decision. Nintendo and Sakurai have implied certain events that don't work with the developmental timeline. the Initial saying of No DLC planned after Mewtwo, and the Bayonetta situation are examples
Sakurai has been strong on the prospect of FP2 being it, but could say the success of FP2 had changed his mind (when it was already planned), or count the Bonus Fighters as a part of FP2
The Fighter Pass Fighters would get priority over any type of Bonus, especially if Covid had messed things up worse than it already did, to the point Bonus would not be able to Work
If we do get Bonus Fighters, I'm think the Fighters would be Waluigi and/or Geno
Both are popular characters, both could re-use assets from ingame already, Both were in that Legacy XP mod that got taken down, both have been in the rumor mill for long while, both, (or at least Waluigi) wouldn't need Fighter Pass treatment and such
If it's just one Fighter, Betting on Waluigi. If there's 2 for each Fighter Pass, It would be both
One would be free if you buy FP1, One would be free if you buy FP2, and Both will be free if you Buy Both. Might be limited time offer also. Both would be available separately for 4.99 like Plant
Geno would take aspects from Mii Gunner, but have his Timed Hits and Special Moves from SMRPG
Waluigi can go in many Directions, so I'm unsure on him.
Geno might also come with Music tracks, perhaps the 2 that were taken down.
Both would share a trailer if they get one