Official DLC Speculation Discussion Volume II

[I.D.]

Honestly I haven't heard Master Chief ever since Steve. Rex has been fairly silent too, Crash is just kinda there without anyone actively mentioning him, and it seems like Dante's been giving way to the Hunter. That, and oftentimes Gen 8 is shut down with the Spirit Event, as post-launch content is usually considered a death sentence.

Rex has been largely written off by speculation from what I've seen but hey, people are still having meltdowns over XB2 in the RTC thread so that has to count for something

 

[ALongWistfulSquiggle]

"Yuri" and "ignored" in the same sentence don't register to me when people are predicting him and writing off Lloyd due to the Mii Costume. I'd argue he even surpasses Lloyd around here from time to time.

It's funny. We seem to go in a cycle between the two where their likelihood seems to flip every year or so. Before Vesperia Definitive Edition, Lloyd seemed like the obvious choice. Then the game happened and it seemed like Yuri would be the obvious choice because of relevency. The game then got little fanfare and time passed, so the recency argument went away and Lloyd gained the spotlight again. Now we're dealing with returning mii costumes and Yuri's back in the spotlight, just because Lloyd seems less likely than he used to and not because anything changed for Yuri.

 

[Paraster]

Jibanyan from Yokai watch. The last game, Yokai watch 4, was released in 2019 and those games are still pretty popular in Japan. Maybe the lack of popularity outside of Japan will hurt him, but it's still shocking to me that Level 5 have no content at all in Smash.

Also probably not the most likely choice, but I'm always surprised that Cadence fron Crypt of the necrodancer is always never mentionned when talking about indie character. She's more relevant than Quote, and despite only having two games, she have more sales than the whole Shantae franchise. And she's the only indie character that had such a big crossover with a Nintendo ip.

Cadence of Hyrule alone has made it so I'd be extremely surprised if NecroDancer doesn't get any sort of representation.
I'd of course love Cadence as a fighter (just check my signature!), but I honestly expect to at least get a Mii costume (maybe with a bonus track, possibly a Cadence of Hyrule one added to the Zelda music?).

 

[Greyfox22]

This might have already been answered already but I`m curious about the whole Rayman frozen in Battlefield thing. It could easily be people seeing what they want to see, but honestly, it does kinda look like him.

I could definitely see Rayman coming to Smash, but if true, I just think it would be weird that Rayman of all characters was thought about all the way at the start of the game and hidden in plain sight, considering as far as I`m aware, none of the other characters that came to Ultimate had this kind of treatment.

 

[SharkLord]

It's funny. We seem to go in a cycle between the two where their likelihood seems to flip every year or so. Before Vesperia Definitive Edition, Lloyd seemed like the obvious choice. Then the game happened and it seemed like Yuri would be the obvious choice because of relevency. The game then got little fanfare and time passed, so the recency argument went away and Lloyd gained the spotlight again. Now we're dealing with returning mii costumes and Yuri's back in the spotlight, just because Lloyd seems less likely than he used to and not because anything changed for Yuri.

Once again, my post from earlier becomes relevant:

Slide to the left!

Slide to the right!

 

[Cutie Gwen]

This might have already been answered already but I`m curious about the whole Rayman frozen in Battlefield thing. It could easily be people seeing what they want to see, but honestly, it does kinda look like him.

I could definitely see Rayman coming to Smash, but if true, I just think it would be weird that Rayman of all characters was thought about all the way at the start of the game and hidden in plain sight, considering as far as I`m aware, none of the other characters that came to Ultimate had this kind of treatment.

There's no way it was Rayman, I don't remember what it's called, but there's an effect where if you look at something or listen to it when deliberately thinking of it, you're more likely to see/hear what you're looking for. I remember a Ben 10 toy having something like that where it'd sound like it was saying Green Needle or something if you specifically thought of it even if you knew it was saying Brainstorm

 

[Hydreigonfan01]

Larry Lurr posted a short video on the 5chan leak.

 

[Rie Sonomura]

Larry Lurr posted a short video on the 5chan leak.

Is this the KOS-MOS/Reimu/Crash one or a new one I haven’t heard of yet?

 

[Cutie Gwen]

Larry Lurr posted a short video on the 5chan leak.

Isn't Larry Lurr a competitive player? What makes his take worth listening to? Not asking as to dismiss the video, I just think it's kinda weird to see a competitive player do something done by the kinda person who thinks they're the **** because they once got a spike off after 50 attempts

 

[TheCJBrine]

It would focus on the series' entire history rather than just one piece of it.

Wouldn’t they be focusing on the newest piece of their history with a new Gen, so either way the others get nothing games-wise? They can easily focus on the entirety of Pokémon’s history even if we get remakes, by including different references or just doing it outside of the games, and sharing at least some of old history through new life breathed into it is still fitting for an anniversary.

Heck, if we do get remakes, perhaps they could also put the older remakes on the Switch, like FRLG and HGSS, so then they aren’t just focusing on one piece. Mario and Zelda already do similar, sharing an old piece alongside new pieces whether through games or just official history timelines and stuff online.

 

[chocolatejr9]

Wouldn’t they be focusing on the newest piece of their history with a new Gen? They can easily focus on the entirety of Pokémon’s history even if we get remakes, by including different references or just doing it outside of the games, and sharing at least some of old history through new life breathed into it is still fitting for an anniversary.

Plus, people have been asking for Gen 4 remakes for awhile now. What better way to celebrate than by giving the fans what they want?

 

[epicmartin7]

Isn't Larry Lurr a competitive player? What makes his take worth listening to? Not asking as to dismiss the video, I just think it's kinda weird to see a competitive player do something done by the kinda person who thinks they're the **** because they once got a spike off after 50 attempts

Well, to counter that, what technically makes other content creators worth listening too then :V. 'Cause, at the end of the day, we all listen to opinions because we like the game, not because we think they'll move society forward lol.

Hate to be blunt, but I always read or hear "what makes this opinion worth listening too", and it's like... well... really nothing when you really break it down and think about it in terms of Smash speculation.

 

[Cutie Gwen]

Well, to counter that, what technically makes other content creators worth listening too then :V. 'Cause, at the end of the day, we all listen to opinions because we like the game, not because we think they'll move society forward lol.

Hate to be blunt, but I always read or hear "what makes this opinion worth listening too", and it's like... well... really nothing when you really break it down and think about it in terms of Smash speculation.

l'm just surprised because it's like there's a binary with this stuff on youtube, either you're involved with the competitive scene or you talk about what you want and how this 4chan post is good for their chances

 

[RileyXY1]

Plus, people have been asking for Gen 4 remakes for awhile now. What better way to celebrate than by giving the fans what they want?

Except it would ignore the legacy and importance of all the other gens. I instead believe that they will do something else for the 25th anniversary. Something comparable to Power Rangers' Shattered Grid event.

 

[Adrianette Bromide]

Plus, people have been asking for Gen 4 remakes for awhile now. What better way to celebrate than by giving the fans what they want?

Yeah because the fans want uh... lemme check... a distorion world condensed into a hallway, smaller postgame, probably the same Fire type distribution (Electric wasn't much better too) as DP... yeah I mean that doesn't-

sees SWSH sales

I don't know what the fans want anymore. I can guarantee that Gen 4 remake would be probably be advertised to newer players moreso than 2006 veterans because clearly, you can actually just lack content and people will be really happy with it. I'd rather them not make a 4 remake while Dynamaxing is a thing too, I don't need that shoehorned into the game.

 

[Cosmic77]

Anniversaries are basically just big promotional stunts. It's possible that they'll have some type of big game that makes sense for a 25th anniversary celebration, but I think it’s more likely that we'll get a ton of new merch acknowledging the milestone while they continue with their planned schedule of new games.

That's exactly what happened with the 20th anniversary, so...

 

[Icedragonadam]

So I heard about the rumored Crash cartoon being cancelled because of "creative differences" between Activison and Amazon. If it's true, then it gives us some insight on negotiating with Activision, which is to sum it up, Disney tier of stingy that Nintendo and Sakurai wouldn't want to touch with a 10 foot pole.

 

[Cutie Gwen]

So I heard about the rumored Crash cartoon being cancelled because of "creative differences" between Activison and Amazon. If it's true, then it gives us some insight on negotiating with Activision, which is to sum it up, Disney tier of stingy that Nintendo and Sakurai wouldn't want to touch with a 10 foot pole.

We've been over this, this literally has no impact even if it's real and Nintendo has already worked with Activision in the past for exclusive ****

 

[Þe 1 → Way]

So I heard about the rumored Crash cartoon being cancelled because of "creative differences" between Activison and Amazon. If it's true, then it gives us some insight on negotiating with Activision, which is to sum it up, Disney tier of stingy that Nintendo and Sakurai wouldn't want to touch with a 10 foot pole.

I’ve seen this a lot and have prepared 3 points against it.
1. Nintendo Characters in Skylanders. Activision and Nintendo have worked together just fine before.
2. The people who worked on the TV show may not have been the same people who would handle video game negotiations.
3. Square Enix
I don’t even want Crash but this argument really doesn’t hold much water.

 

[Greyfox22]

The more I think about it, the more certain I am that the Smash Ballot is probably still being used to determine which characters are popular among fans. Just looking at the newcomers and dlc characters in Ultimate shows that the Ballot is probably fairly influential (K. Rool, Ridley, Chrom, Simon, Inkling, Erdrick, Banjo and Kazooie). That being said, I think that means characters popular with Smash fans during Smash4 and 2015 have a much better chance of getting in than characters who gained more support recently.

 

[SKX31]

Isn't Larry Lurr a competitive player? What makes his take worth listening to? Not asking as to dismiss the video, I just think it's kinda weird to see a competitive player do something done by the kinda person who thinks they're the **** because they once got a spike off after 50 attempts

Yeah, Larry's a old-school Melee / Brawl / PM player (active in Melee between 2007-2018) who transitioned to 4 / Ultimate starting in 2014. He's known for being a consistent force regardless of the game being played, and very adaptable to the cirmcumstances at hand. He's not been regarded as "The Best" IIRC, but he's usually hovered rather closely in the upper ranks.

It's going to be case-by-case really: One can be good at playing the game but not good at other aspects at the game (see: Michael Jordan or Wayne Gretzky, who were absurdly dominant players in their respective sports but not great managers. There are those who can do multiple things very well, though).

In Larry's case, he seemed a bit uncritical, even if he summarized his thoughts with "I don't know" (if the leak's true or not). He did mention that the leaker had gotten the Hero stuff right, and he did go into potential issues with Disney in regards to Sora... but he didn't get into judging the leak's validity, it seemed. Of course, he did focus a bit on how Lloyd, Yuri and Chun would play (which, granted, competitive players and those who lean towards that like me would gravitate towards), and the video was short, so I'm not giving it a final verdict. Still, the video might be a bit iffy - partly since it's not the kind of videos he usually releases.

 

[Faso115]

I think there is a Scott the Woz video about Call of Duty on the Wii and how games had to be changed to fit that console, so at the least Activision took the time to modify their signature series so it could run in one of Nintendo's consoles so i guess there is some merit, besides the Skylanders deals, that Activision and Nintendo have worked well in the past

 

[Cutie Gwen]

The more I think about it, the more certain I am that the Smash Ballot is probably still being used to determine which characters are popular among fans. Just looking at the newcomers and dlc characters in Ultimate shows that the Ballot is probably fairly influential (K. Rool, Ridley, Chrom, Simon, Inkling, Erdrick, Banjo and Kazooie). That being said, I think that means characters popular with Smash fans during Smash4 and 2015 have a much better chance of getting in than characters who gained more support recently.

I doubt it's a major priority due to all the different factors that change it, but at the same time, we got Joker, a character who literally did not exist during the ballot period yet was very well-received

 

[Guynamednelson]

The more I think about it, the more certain I am that the Smash Ballot is probably still being used to determine which characters are popular among fans. Just looking at the newcomers and dlc characters in Ultimate shows that the Ballot is probably fairly influential (K. Rool, Ridley, Chrom, Simon, Inkling, Erdrick, Banjo and Kazooie). That being said, I think that means characters popular with Smash fans during Smash4 and 2015 have a much better chance of getting in than characters who gained more support recently.

Steve and Sephiroth could've had ballot influence, and Steve needing five years of negotiations would tie in with the ballot. However, Min Min is too new to be a ballot choice and also too old to be one of the "inevitable" new game promotions, so she's an outlier.

 

[Hydreigonfan01]

Is this the KOS-MOS/Reimu/Crash one or a new one I haven’t heard of yet?

The Tales of/Chun-Li leak.

 

[Professor Pumpkaboo]

"Yuri" and "ignored" in the same sentence don't register to me when people are predicting him and writing off Lloyd due to the Mii Costume. I'd argue he even surpasses Lloyd around here from time to time.

I feel hes only recently talked about because of the mii costume stuff. If the mii costume thing wasnt relevent, im sure he would be ignored lol

 

[Cutie Gwen]

which, granted, competitive players and those who lean towards that like me would gravitate towards

Well **** that actually sounds interesting, theorycrafting potential characters. Didn't expect to be won over by a single sentence lmao

The Tales of/Chun-Li leak.

My god, we've been calling it Chun Leak because it sounded snappy but this made me realize that Tales of Chun Li is such a fantastic ****ing name, we ought to be ashamed for not thinking of it sooner

 

[Þe 1 → Way]

Steve and Sephiroth could've had ballot influence, and Steve needing five years of negotiations would tie in with the ballot. However, Min Min is too new to be a ballot choice and also too old to be one of the "inevitable" new game promotions, so she's an outlier.

Wasn’t the Ballot before Cloud was added? I can’t see Sephiroth getting many votes.

 

[Guynamednelson]

Wasn’t the Ballot before Cloud was added? I can’t see Sephiroth getting many votes.

The ballot did end before Cloud was added, yes. Despite not being commonly talked about, they could've still gotten thousands of votes since FFVII is an iconic game.

 

[Cutie Gwen]

Wasn’t the Ballot before Cloud was added? I can’t see Sephiroth getting many votes.

Looks at the FF fanbase

Oh, honey...

 

[Rie Sonomura]

Oh right, the Chun-Leak technically originated on 5ch too...

wait did the Hayabusa/Doomguy/Ninjara/Rayman one originate there too?

 

[SharkLord]

Well **** that actually sounds interesting, theorycrafting potential characters. Didn't expect to be won over by a single sentence lmao

My god, we've been calling it Chun Leak because it sounded snappy but this made me realize that Tales of Chun Li is such a fantastic ****ing name, we ought to be ashamed for not thinking of it sooner

I can't but find it funny that we're applying names that make it sound like it 's saying Chun-Li and a Tales rep are in Smash when both characters only got a sentence each dedicated to them. It's why I always stuck to Dropped Deals or just Negotiations, since those are less misleading.

 

[Hydreigonfan01]

My god, we've been calling it Chun Leak because it sounded snappy but this made me realize that Tales of Chun Li is such a fantastic ****ing name, we ought to be ashamed for not thinking of it sooner

Honestly I can see an animated Street Fighter movie being called Street Fighter: Tales of Chun Li.

 

[Greyfox22]

I doubt it's a major priority due to all the different factors that change it, but at the same time, we got Joker, a character who literally did not exist during the ballot period yet was very well-received

Steve and Sephiroth could've had ballot influence, and Steve needing five years of negotiations would tie in with the ballot. However, Min Min is too new to be a ballot choice and also too old to be one of the "inevitable" new game promotions, so she's an outlier.

I think characters are chosen for a variety of reasons, not necessarily all of them are tailored to the core demographic of already existing Smash fans regardless of how well received they become, but I do think characters who are chosen to appeal to Smash fans probably take a good amount of influence from the Ballot.

I actually made a post a few pages back in case you guys are interested. Basically, I think there are some pretty distinct patterns for why characters are chosen.
Might be pointless fan conjecture, but I think it's kind of interesting regardless.

Edit: I see what you mean about Min-Min but I think it`s pretty obvious she was used as a promotional tool, what with the free ARMS demo and all.

Spoiler: The post

I`ve been thinking a lot about Smash speculation today, mostly cause I was bored, and I`m seeing a lot of patterns between the waves of dlc. Because Nintendo/Sakurai probably wants to target certain demographics with Smash inclusions, they probably have certain criteria in mind when picking characters. Since fighter pass one and the Smash4 dlc already sold really well, it would probably make sense for Smash dlc to continue to appeal to those demographics. Anyways, I made up these categories I think all current dlc characters fall into. I know there are probably some other categories that aren't on here or that I didn't think of but these are the ones I thought were the most consistent and made the most sense to me.

Playstation Characters
Characters who are more associated with popular Playstation games and don't have much of a connection or history with Nintendo. Unexpected out of left field picks that are meant to make Playstation fans want to buy a Smash game. This doesn't really apply to other Nintendo competitors, like Xbox, as much simply because Nintendo and Playstation dominate the Japanese console market; this is also a similar reason why these characters come from popular Japanese games (no Crash Bandicoot, yet...)

-Cloud who represented the at the time Playstation exclusive Final Fantasy VII
-Joker who represents Persona 5
-Sephiroth who represents the recently released Final Fantasy VII remake (part 1 of 24)

Fan Favourites
Long time fan favourites that appeal to current Smash fans and encourage them to buy dlc. That might be pretty obvious, but an important factor I've been considering is that the Smash character ballot might still be used to choose these characters. The Smash Ballot is more than a few years old, and the speculation landscape may have changed a lot since, but it's still probably the best source of information to determine which characters are popular with fans. Even if there is a lot of support for certain characters that can be seen over social media, it would be hard for Nintendo to quantify support for those characters or how receptive a majority of fans would be towards those characters. It's also not possible to know how much support a character actually got during the Smash Ballots, but I think fan ballots and intuition can be used to make somewhat good guesses.

-Bayonetta, who may have won the ballot possibly...
-Hero, or Erdrick more specifically who was probably pretty popular on the Japanese side of the Ballot
-Banjo and Kazooie
-Steve? It's hard to determine but he does come up pretty frequently on fanmade Smash Ballots and his popularity would make sense

Fighting Game Characters
Characters who appeal to a large amount of general fighting game fans. Probably characters who attract people who are more interested in other, non-Smash, fighting games. I'm less certain about this category because these characters might be able to fit into fan favourites, and there's only two.

-Ryu
-Terry

Promotional Characters
Characters whose main purpose is to promote a specific Nintendo game/franchise, unlike other characters whose inclusion is meant to promote Smash dlc. Controversial characters some may refer to as "shill picks."

-Corrin
-Byleth
-Min Min who I'd call a promotional character rather than a fighting game character. She may be from a fighting game, but its a very different kind of game that doesn't have the same appeal as Street Fighter or Fatal Fury. Also, I think her inclusion did much more to promote ARMS to Smash fans than the other way around.



Anyways, just something I was thinking a lot about today and thought might be interesting.

 

[Guynamednelson]

Honestly I can see an animated Street Fighter movie being called Street Fighter: Tales of Chun Li.

Sounds too similar to the OTHER live action movie. The one that doesn't even have Raul Julia's M. Bison.

 

[Cutie Gwen]

I can't but find it funny that we're applying names that make it sound like it 's saying Chun-Li and a Tales rep are in Smash when both characters only got a sentence each dedicated to them. It's why I always stuck to Dropped Deals or just Negotiations, since those are less misleading.

That's fair but Tales of Chun-Li is a good ass title

Honestly I can see an animated Street Fighter movie being called Street Fighter: Tales of Chun Li.

Hey, Street Fighter's animated stuff has a better record than the live action ones, so I'd take it

 

[Þe 1 → Way]

Looks at the FF fanbase

Oh, honey...

The ballot did end before Cloud was added, yes. Despite not being commonly talked about, they could've still gotten thousands of votes since FFVII is an iconic game.

To be honest. I really can’t see Sephiroth getting many votes.
It was mentioned that tons of FF characters were voted on, but Cloud got the most. I think Sakurai also mentioned Black Mage as well.
I really can’t see people voting for the main antagonist before the main protagonist.
Sephiroth wasn’t even a very big talked about choice after Cloud was added. Whenever I saw another FF character being picked, it was Tifa or Black Mage. Though most agreed if there was a second FF7 character it would be Sephiroth.
I know I’m probably in the minority here, but I really just can’t envision a situation in which Seohiroth got many Ballot votes.

 

[DarthEnderX]

Not going to happen, but gosh man Crypto would be so awesome. He is my ultimate pipedream want alongside Kratos.

...you're an odd duck.

 

[Cutie Gwen]

To be honest. I really can’t see Sephiroth getting many votes.
It was mentioned that tons of FF characters were voted on, but Cloud got the most. I think Sakurai also mentioned Black Mage as well.
I really can’t see people voting for the main antagonist before the main protagonist.
Sephiroth wasn’t even a very big talked about choice after Cloud was added. Whenever I saw another FF character being picked, it was Tifa or Black Mage. Though most agreed if there was a second FF7 character it would be Sephiroth.
I know I’m probably in the minority here, but I really just can’t envision a situation in which Seohiroth got many Ballot votes.

First of all, Sakurai mentioned Terra, Bartz and Onion Knight. Second, you're too young to know how ****ing crazy people obsessed over Sephiroth back in the day. He was like, every gamer's heart throb character

 

[LiveStudioAudience]

Sephiroth feels like one where SE likely pushed for it, with Nintendo realizing he would do good sales numbers, and Sakurai seeing enough value in him (either as a concept or with his moveset) that he obviously didn't object to it.

Basically he was someone that made sense and was probably the path of least resistance for all involved.