2.if they aren't voting for a character the hardcore deems popular, then who are they voting for? No one has an answer and its all vague, "we don't know" statements. It's not meant as a serious point. This is meant to put everyone on an even playing field. I'll bet you a lot of these people's tune would change if their most wanted was popular on fan polls.
3.Youre forgetting that several of the popular characters are million sellers. For example, Donkey Kong Country is like the fifth best selling franchise of all time. Pretty sure it would spark casual interest.
4. Most of these people shouting this are the "the ballot is a suggestion box" people. Which is it folks?
I really don't like this line of thinking.
2. Toad. They are voting for Toad
(hopefully). They are correct to do this. Why the hell are YOU LOT not voting for Toad? You're all objectively wrong for not doing this. I'm disappointed in all of you. Foreshame on you all.
Logically though the answer would be; totally random.
I've seen a lot of fan support from everyone from Shadow the Hedgehog(Second Sonic characters seem to get a lot of Miiverse support for example, which I guess can be classified as more casual than Smashboards) to Goku(unfeasible), to every Mario character(particularly Daisy actually), to Minecraft Steve(also unfeasible) to Freddy Fazbear(also unfeasible).
Obviously there will be overlap with the 'hardcore' audience, because characters like Wolf(due to Brawl), Inklings, Dixie Kong, Wonder Red, Bayonetta etc have been played recently by these casual and young audience members so the characters will be fresh in their minds.
3. DK(C) is top five Nintendo series which I think you meant there and for the most part I agree with this...only I think Dixie probably does better with the casual audience than the king does.
Between the fact I doubt many of the casual DK audience actually got to the end of these pretty rock hard platformers, Dixie making a more recent appearance in Tropical Freeze and Dixie getting marginally more exposure through toy merchandise than the king, I feel they'd probably swing more towards the female chimp than the fat croc.
But obviously this is opinions and since casuals are less likely to write down who they voted for than the Smashboards going community, it's harder to nail down who they'd choose. That's my speculation on this situation regarding these enigmatic 'casuals'.
Because that's all ANY of us can do at the end of the day; speculate. Let's face facts; we can't even answer point "4." because no one freaking knows. There's no official statement so it could be down to sheer votes or it could be a suggestion box.
None of us know. None of us.
Edit:
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'd; you did mean that on .3