Talk of Ghirahim? Guess I should post for once then! But first...
Tingle.
Tingle's Chances: 5%
The only reason I really give him any is because I know Sakurai loves proving his fans wrong and show them how close-minded their views of likely and fitting are. But adopting our notions of what is probable, getting a new Zelda character at all seems difficult enough on its own, and from that perspective it'd certainly be hard to shake off the notion that any newcomer would have to be quite special to be included among the likes of Link, Zelda, and Ganon (Toon and Sheik as extensions of the former two). There aren't many options to choose from, and none are very stellar. Choices that were popular in the pre-Brawl days, Midna and Skull Kid, were given to us already as confirmed Assist Trophies, and they earned their popularity from likability and potential alone.
Vaati is one that is still safe and carries along with him a greater repertoire of appearances, albeit only slightly, but carrying a good deal of potential (not as much likability though, I'm going to allow myself to guess). Then we come to the one known as Tingle. Plenty of appearances, even his own series, although it's spin-off territory. The potential seems a bit lacking compared to the like of Vaati, and even comes up short compared to the slain Twilight Princess and the puppet of Majora. I'm ever the believer of Sakurai's talent to make these SSB4 character's creative and appealing considering what we've seen thus far, so there's no doubt some way he could imagine a way to implement him in a way that is easily acceptable, but this applies to the others all the same, nay, all the more, and thus only works as a way to justify the potential to be enjoyable and nothing more. It in know way shows him to be a "logical" choice over others on such a basis, unless Sakurai's unique understanding, being behind the development, gives him a vision beyond any precedent I can conjure or anyone I've seen speak here.
And finally, returning to something I've mentioned before: likability. This treks into even greater subjectivity, so I can only speculate on the general opinion of those around me and also contribute my own opinion, of which seems to be aligned with what most people go with here on Smashboards. That is to say, I believe him to be uninteresting. I've never played his games, which definitely contributes, but insofar as he is a part of the mainline of Zelda games, his presence in the Zelda games, while consistent, are either not notable or, when they are, it's rather unwelcome (I'm looking at you ****ing Wind Waker, a stain on an otherwise gorgeous game (I partially kid, I don't mean to exaggerate its annoyance)). This all leads roughly to...
Want: 5%
Putting it this way makes it seem as though my basis for wanting character is comparable to how possible they are, but I'd like to make crystal clear that this is simply not the case.
Ghirahim's chances: 15%
The character I did not mention up above as possible candidates, and the one that I'd guess would make it in if anyone at all (excluding Toon Zelda & Sheik/Tetra, however bringing that in makes this business of pseudo-prediction even more pointless and presumptuous than it already is to me). As far as potential goes, in my view, he reigns supreme
Demon Moveset Lord. He's got magic like Vaati, which you can be as original with that as you wish, or you can do what I did and completely flat-out rip his moves from Skyward Sword. Seriously, fighting him was what sparked the idea of him being a playable character in Smash for me, his attacks felt like they'd not only translate well into it but they'd also be very fresh compared to the rest of cast. Aside some creative liberties I took with the standard attacks, I translated everything into a set with seriously no effort at all (the set I made in my support thread is genuinely lazy, which is amusing because most people rather found it to be to their liking). The idea clicked from the battles as a perfect idea when I thought about how memorable and enjoyable his character was to me on a personality level, although this is certainly a subject of debate, but certainly not to the degree of Tingle (fabulousness
gone wrong), and Vaati doesn't have one to discuss to begin with. This likability, this distinction in style and expression, is all the more important to me ever since I saw how vibrant and cartoony some of the pictures we've seen of the characters. Whether he's a character or not, he needs to be involved in some sort of glorious HD fashion in my opinion. It'd be a wasted opportunity otherwise.
Unfortunately, despite my high praises, there's a good chance indeed that we may never see him again, although I still stand by my belief that he may very well appear once more in a couple different ways, which makes me want to look into what Miyamoto said about wanting him to be remembered a lot more than what was probably intended.
Granted, a lack of appearances doesn't seal someone's fate, particularly in view of Sakurai's antics, but it's a cause of concern nonetheless and therefore I shall not put his probability high, especially again in relation to the fact that the other characters represented in the franchise are the three most important and returning characters of the series. The only point that can be given for him in regards to his appearance is that it's, well, recent, and thoroughly appeared in all his antagonistic glory in the latest Zelda game that will be receiving item and stage attention in this latest iteration of Smash Bros. All of this being said, I'll leave the big number for my desire.
Want: 90%
Not at 100% purely for the fact that I understand why people might not entirely want him in and mostly due to my ever-growing complacency regarding who is included in the new games given that I'm quite content with what we've gotten already and feel confident for what's to come in the future no matter what.