Decisive Games NewD3 Mafia (GAME OVER!)

[Eido]

It's not L-1 yet. Wait until Fonti's reread.

Reading through some bits myself

 

[Eido]

bessie Noted your advice, thanks. And sorry for calling you scatty. I personally love the idea you can role play in a game like this. Your posts have been a bit tricky to follow personally, but that’s also on me to be better prepared here.

Also a big part of why I’m leaning Town on you is because I don’t believe you say this as scum, and then kill Sabrar. It feels ilke you'd make these types of decisions quietly in scum chat. I could be wrong.

As for your question in #489, I recall Town!Wam squaring up to Fonti in Apex, and she lets rip on him. He squares up to her a number of times here, and I feel Scum!Wam would approach Town!Fonti more cautiously after learning his lesson. Does that make sense?

 

[Eido]

I think I've convinced myself that this is probably correct. In an ideal world I think I'd still prefer to yeet fonti first, but I'm willing to accept the possibility that what I'm seeing is just my paranoia about her.

Vote: Eido

Interesting movement here. You came about on this decision quite quickly.

Why do you need me dead over Fonti first? She's your ideal choice - presumably you think she's more likely to be scum?

 

[Eido]

I also don't find his sudden vote of Swiss last night to be telling of anything. No one had somi as a hard scum read, Somi was really just the best of the options. I would have 100% done a mad scramble to Swiss if we had time and more players, just to see how different players reacted in order to gather more information.

This is right.

fontisian

 

[Eido]

Unvote

L-1 I'm happy to hammer but I know font st least wanted more time.

You both need to contribute more.

 

[Wam]

It's not L-1 yet. Wait until Fonti's reread.

Reading through some bits myself

Your at 3 votes, its 4 to eliminate how is theat not L-1

 

[Wam]

You both need to contribute more.

Ironic being liked by maven.

I will just as stated up front weekends at the moment are busy and I cant see us getting a majority for anything other than an eido lynch.

 

[Maven89]

I don’t want any quick lunches day 2

 

[Eido]

Wam Swiss unvoted

 

[Eido]

Also Maven89 all your avatars have been from Reboot, right? Jeez that takes me way back. I loved that show

 

[Wam]

Wam Swiss unvoted

Apologies missed that.

 

[Swiss]

Don’t hammer please more active weekdays

Carry on

 

[Maven89]

Don’t hammer please more active weekdays

Carry on

I'd like that Laser case please, more than bullet points

 

[#HBC | FrozeηFlame]

OFFICIAL VOTE COUNT v2.2

Eido (2): Fontisian, Laserguy
Fontisian (1): Wam
Laserguy (1): Eido

Not Voting (3): Bessie, Maven, Swiss

With 7 alive, it takes 4 votes to eliminate!

 

[Swiss]

I'd like that Laser case please, more than bullet points

Imagine yourself in a spaghetti western film

and just shoot from the hip

 

[fontisian]

My brain is sliding over this game.

I've looked at Eido's town game, his wolf game, and the article I linked him on power wolfing. I've reread about 300 posts. I think he's imitating the strategies suggested in the article, as his did in the Mafia and Werewolves game.

Fine with a hammer.

 

[bessie]

If Font is scum, Font will win. I hate Font's personal attacks and general nastiness, but that is almost always a town player feeling bitter or having ego issues. If Font is scum faking it, then I guess bravo? I'm not voting Font anytime soon.

First and most important, I want to say that I think being aggressive and having a massive ego are traits that are pretty common among all our carefully curated online mafia personalities and not necessarily who we are, and that I will leave any further elaboration for after the game.

Second, my unreliable gut tells me fonti is the remaining mafia, and that she will likely manage to avoid the yeet as she did in Things I like Mafia. Zen and BoomFrog both built cases on her but she managed her way out of both.

Bessie feels town but I'll admit I haven't paid too much attention to the slot.

Did anyone find Sabrar hinting at being a PR? If I had to kill two random people at night as mafia I'd probably have targeted the same just based off skill, but I'm curious if Sabrar slipped somewhere

I wasn’t able to find anything, but I’m notoriously bad at finding breadcrumbs, even when I’m looking for them. However, I might return to this later.

Uh, sorry. I haven't been trying to make any personal attacks. And haven't been bitter either, I'm having a good time. Sorry for giving off that impression.

We’re all good.

It's cool, we're dog people now

I think it's called a Hot Hand Fallacy.

I think this might be what I was thinking.

Also a big part of why I’m leaning Town on you is because I don’t believe you say this as scum, and then kill Sabrar. It feels ilke you'd make these types of decisions quietly in scum chat. I could be wrong.

Replying to this because someone else can bring it up, but it could be an attempt by me to draw out a power role claim, or at least another slip. Also, like I said, if I was thinking it others were too.

As for your question in #489, I recall Town!Wam squaring up to Fonti in Apex, and she lets rip on him. He squares up to her a number of times here, and I feel Scum!Wam would approach Town!Fonti more cautiously after learning his lesson. Does that make sense?

This isn’t exactly what I was looking for in the answer, but your answer has convinced me that there’s no follow on to this line of questioning.

Imagine yourself in a spaghetti western film

and just shoot from the hip

In other words, why no I don't have a Laser case so there.


Please add me to the list of players that are not ready for hammer, I'm working on another post.

 

[bessie]

I have been thinking about this:

My issue with this is your approach to reevaluation.
1. You don’t want to reevaluate fonti because you you were right on Sabrar and Gorf so therefore you must also be correct on fonti. There must be a term for this kind of logic but it's not coming to me right now.
2. You reason that by PoE LaserGuy must be scum, then you go back and are able to see some questionable posts, but that’s because now scum tells are what you are looking for when you reevaluate the posts.

Eido you never addressed this, nor have you reevaluated fonti. I was hoping you would follow through with this on your own without you needing a push by me. This makes me ponder possible reasons that you don’t want to reevaluate fonti, maybe because she’s probably the strongest player in this game and town!fonti is a player that scum doesn’t want to antagonize. Or maybe just because you’re struggling with impartial reads.

You also haven’t reevaluated your LaserGuy read, which is scum by PoE, so you read everything he says as scum, not impartially. In case you don’t understand what I am trying to explain, I made an example.


bessie’s Undeniable Proof that Sabrar is Scum

#3: Standard opening, joke refers to previous game. +0
#6: Same as above. +0
#18: Standard early scum read of Wam. +0
Humble assessment of his own abilities, unusual for someone of Sabrar’s ego. -1
#21: Early attempt to pocket fonti? -1
#27: Early aggressiveness toward Eido. +1
#29: Early aggressiveness toward Eido. +1
#38: Turns questioning from Eido to Gorf. +1
#39: OOG. +0
#52: Moves back to Eido for game mechanics. +0
#66: Disagrees with LaserGuy re Eido town tell, refers to meta from another player and game (scummy use of meta tells). -1
#101: Questions LaserGuy on Gorf read, this reads as an early attempt to cast suspicion on LaserGuy. -1
#103: OOG. +0
Note secret meta tell referred to in my #104. +1
#111: Asks Swiss to explain his read of Maven. +0
Note: Sabrar does not follow up on this. -1
#129: Questions Eido’s reads, which are all based on OMGUS. +0
#139: Question to me re Vicarin’s scum meta; implies that it is similar to Eido’s content in this game (scummy use of irrelevant meta to suggest suspicion). -1
#140: Reply to Eido, follows up questioning Eido’s explanation of how he selected his scum pool. +0
#146: Reply to Eido, does not elaborate on the answer to Eido’s question (why not clarify?). -1
#148: Odd reply that Eido’s scum pool should be all the players in the game. -1
#155: Refuses Eido’s request for reads by stating that early reads is atypical of his meta. He also makes the odd comment that there are issues he as waiting to see resolved without his intervention. This could be an attempt to deflect suspicion. -1
#187: Requests clarification on Eido’s Gorf scum tell. +1
#188: OOG. +0
#191: Reply to fonti, who answered Sabrar’s question to Eido. Interesting that Sabrar was not more outwardly irritated with fonti, because this is something that should have annoyed him but he lets it pass. -1
#204: Questions Maven’s progression to town reading Eido. +0
#206: Answers a question from Swiss to LaserGuy re somitomi RVS, and asks Swiss to respond. -1
Asks LaserGuy why he did not point his out himself. Sabrar seems anxious to put out to that the early somitomi vote was RVS and not a serious vote based on meta, note the implied defense of somitomi in this post. -1
#217: Aggressive follow up to Eido. +1
#219: Request for Swiss to respond to #206. +0
#222: Town lean Swiss, fonti, Gorf for mostly gut not quantitative reasons. Sabrar should be able to point toward more solid examples for his town reads. -1
Scum lean Eido for newbie meta, does provide examples but the scum read is still based on a meta expectation of how a newbie should react. -1
#239: Uses an example from another player in another game to validate his read of Eido (scummy use of meta). -1
#253: Aggressive response to Eido. +0
#254: Same as #253. Excessive? +0
#268: Confirmation to my self-assessment of my meta. +0
Asks for my thoughts on LaserGuy and Wam. This is suspicious because Sabrar has given little indication of his own reads of these two players, though Sabrar does have some early suspicious questioning of LaserGuy in #101. -1
#270: Replies to my answers without any indication as to why he asked the question, just that he will be awaiting my more detailed analysis. -1
#276: Question to Maven to explain a read. +0
#280: Questions somitomi on his strongest town and scum reads, possible covering for a partner’s weak content. Note that Sabrar does not question somitomi aggressively as he does with LaserGuy, Swiss, and Eido. -1
#282: Questions Eido for not understanding bessie’s posting style. Attempt to pocket bessie? -1
#290: Questions Wam’s vote on somitomi and not on Maven for similar reason. Note the attempt to move the vote from somitomi. -1
#292: Similar to #290. Sabrar doubles down on his attempt to move vote from somitomi. -1
#295: Interestingly, in spite of his previous attempt to move from somitomi, Sabrar puts somitomi on his yeet list. Distancing? -1
#305: Questions fonti on her yeet list placement of Maven and somitomi, questions why they are equal level on her list. Possible attempt to move the yeet to Maven over somitomi. -1
#307: Questions fonti’s scum lean on somitomi by pointing out that fonti once believed somitomi and bessie to be the scum team, but has moved bessie to town lean, and indicates that fonti has no reason to scum read somitomi. This an odd equivalency to make. -1
Ends with question to fonti re necessity of at least one veteran player on scum team. This is a very odd point, because there is only one newbie player in this game so there is no point to this question except to turn the conversation from somitomi, or to suspicion on bessie. -1
#311: OOG. +0
#327: Asks Eido to elaborate on scum read of Maven; asks Eido if he has any specific reason to suspect somitomi. Note the difference in Sabrar’s approach to his questioning of Eido’s reads of Maven and somitomi. -1
#331: Puts Maven ahead of somitomi and Eido on his yeet list for small town pings. Note continued attempt to steer the yeet from somitomi to Maven. -1
#340: Remark to fonti that the same post that fonti quotes to support her somitomi vote is the same post that gave Sabrar a town ping on somitomi. Note the continued attempt to guide the vote away from somitomi. -1
#343: Defends somitomi’s content level as NAI. -1
#346: Response to fonti, attempt to cast doubt on Eido’s placement of somitomi. This could be an attempt to group somitomi and Eido together. +0
#375: Interesting claim by Sabrar that he will not be tunneling this game. Possible excuse for non-committal content. -1
#377: Unofficial vote count. +0
#495: Arrival for end of day, Sabrar is not yet voting. Note that somitomi is the likely yeet. +0
#496: Questions somitomi’s placement on my Woof-Grr list. +0
#499: Interesting, Sabrar indicates that he would be open to swinging to Swiss, but it is not likely. +0
#505: Answers a question to me from fonti.

I want to discuss this post in detail because I think it is the most indicative of scum!Sabrar.**

The quotes for reference:

This one? Why?

Because it's a natural looking reaction without the scum-knowledge that it could be B1 or B2. Feels like someone who just checked the setup-list and missed B1.

Anyone that knows me well knows that this is not a thought that I would have. I do not do behavior-type reads, and wouldn’t be able to judge a player's reaction in this way. I am a predominantly technical (and reactive) player. Why would Sabrar think I would think this?

In addition to the content of Sabrar’s answer, it is also unusual for him to jump in and answer a question for someone else, as he finds it irritating when others do this. More so because Sabrar knew I was online and reading the thread. I believe that Sabrar knew exactly what I was thinking in quoting that post because he saw the same thing that I did, and this was an attempt to cover a possible PR slip by Eido and position himself as town reading Eido, so that he would look better on D2 after he NKs Eido and Eido flips town.

Note that Sabrar never replied to my explanation in #512, even after I specifically pointed out that his explanation was incorrect in #515. Why?

#507: Snarky reply to fonti as to why he answered bessie’s question. +0
#510: Same as #507. +0
#511: Questioning fonti on her revised reads in light of Maven’s claim. +0
#523: Sabrar votes for Swiss with no explanation, but implies he is following fonti. This is very suspicious because Sabrar has discusses Swiss very little throughout the entire day. -1
#536: Notes that Swiss yeet is not happening. +0
#541: Post hammer switch to somitomi, Sabrar wants to ensure he is voting for a mafia yeet. -1

Tl; dr:
Sabrar’s early content is mostly questions to others, which is ok for the first couple pages. But as the game progresses Sabrar is not providing as many of his own his own thoughts as I would expect from town!Sabrar.

Note that as the game progresses and somitomi is becoming the likely yeet target, Sabrar tries to steer the yeet to Maven. After Maven’s claim, Sabrar makes a last ditch attempt to move the yeet to Swiss. Note that Sabrar only votes for somitomi after it is inevitable that somitomi will be the yeet. Very likely so that he will end the day on the wagon.

Conclusion: Sabrar is mafia with somitomi.

Did anyone find Sabrar hinting at being a PR? If I had to kill two random people at night as mafia I'd probably have targeted the same just based off skill, but I'm curious if Sabrar slipped somewhere

**I think that this is where I should have figured out that Sabrar was a power role. The timing and the complete misreading of my meta makes me wonder if this was meant to be a signal.

 

[LaserGuy]

Interesting movement here. You came about on this decision quite quickly.

I spent a lot of time going through your slot in detail. See #655.

Why do you need me dead over Fonti first? She's your ideal choice - presumably you think she's more likely to be scum?

If I evaluated you at say, 70% scum and fonti at 30% I would still probably prefer to yeet fonti first because I would just be more comfortable having a resolution on her slot. But there's a decent chance that I'm overthinking things regarding her and sorting you will just end the game, so I'm happy with my vote for the moment.

 

[LaserGuy]

bessie’s Undeniable Proof that Sabrar is Scum

I just want to acknowledge the time and effort bessie put into making this point. Also, bessie is Town.

 

[Eido]

This makes me ponder possible reasons that you don’t want to reevaluate fonti, maybe because she’s probably the strongest player in this game and town!fonti is a player that scum doesn’t want to antagonize. Or maybe just because you’re struggling with impartial reads.

Please don’t consider me not wanting to antagonise Fonti - I didn’t know she’s been the strongest player here. The post you’re referencing (the POE one) is my yolo solve. I could have been the agreed yeet so this was a moment to speak ideas.

I still feel good that if Maven is Town, and You/Wam/Swiss are probably Town, then Laser/Fonti is a good & probable area to focus on. Fonti feels Townier, and yes I do need to address it. Will outline thoughts later on both of them. Chat soon

 

[Wam]

Town
Maven - without a counter claim they are lock town to me.
Bessie - I'm with laser that sabrar is scum case is 100% town bessie
Laserguy - I agree with him a lot might be confirmation bias
Swiss - dropping down as he feels like hes coasting and I feel this is more likely to be scum swiss behaviour.
Eido - play better today but still scummy.
Fontisan- I have made my points clear I think the somi lynch is enough evidence.

If I had to put odds on it 40 % font 30% eido, 25% swiss or laser. 5% bessie is playing amazingly.

 

[Eido]

I'm gonna go to bed sometime and wake up in roughly 8,5 hours at which point I'll have a little time to check in.

Unexpected scum read on Swiss is unexpected, so I'm eagerly awaiting your case.

I agree with Fonti, you can't do any scumhunting as scum if you know the entire setup. Multi-ball is way different and I think it's a lot easier for newbie scum in this regard.

^ This post looks like it has big clues. (Linked here for full context).

Somi’s eagerness to see a case on Swiss is strong. Is he eager as a way of using Fonti to convince everyone it's Swiss and not him? Or is he working with her right here to convince everyone it's Swiss and not him?

In both outcomes, this likely clears Swiss. If Somi's eager to use Fonti, he (the goon) doesn't use her to apply extra pressure on his rolecop buddy. And if he's working with her as buddies, he's obviously not aligned with Swiss.

To me this a clue that Somi & Swiss are unaligned.

If we're able to resolve whether Somi's using Fonti here, we can attempt to make a call on her too. Thoughts on all this would be great.

 

[bessie]

I just want to acknowledge the time and effort bessie put into making this point. Also, bessie is Town.

If I had to put odds on it 40 % font 30% eido, 25% swiss or laser. 5% bessie is playing amazingly.

What the ****??

I should be annoyed with the two of you. I am totally capable playing amazingly as any alignment.

 

[Wam]

Ok then

Vote bessie

 

[Wam]

Being serious now

Unvote

vote eido

L-1

 

[Eido]

I'm going to haunt you from the grave.

 

[Eido]

After me please go Laser > Fonti. After that I have no clue.

Also if anyone's great at reading Somi and is able to resolve this:

If we're able to resolve whether Somi's using Fonti here, we can attempt to make a call on her too. Thoughts on all this would be great.

then I think you clear 2 in 1. could be helpful. Peace out!

 

[Swiss]

I'm back, re-reading

 

[Swiss]

I think I've convinced myself that this is probably correct. In an ideal world I think I'd still prefer to yeet fonti first, but I'm willing to accept the possibility that what I'm seeing is just my paranoia about her.

Vote: Eido

LaserGuy

Vote Fonti

 

[Swiss]

I don't see Eido!Scum, I also don't see a real case.

Just people moaning about his general weirdness.

The only actual case made was Fonti onto me which as we all now know was terrible.

I'd personally prefer Laser over Fonti but since Laser is set on Fonti, I'll roll with him.

 

[Swiss]

Maven
Wam
Eido
Bessie
Font
Laser

I actually think font is probably town, but it would look bad of me vote someone I townread in this list. Consistency is key.

 

[Swiss]

Could be Bessie, probs not Eido.

 

[Swiss]

Bish bash bosh my work here is done

 

[Swiss]

Maven89 Wam

Tell me your thoughts on Laser please

 

[Swiss]

wam and Swiss both look like pretty solid clears from that wagon.

I feel like fonti pushing Swiss wagon was a last-ditch effort to push away from somi after Maven claimed. Still liking this at the moment.

Vote: fonti

Very confident clears here.

Like, no worry about wifom, no reasoning just a rapido push on Font.

 

[Swiss]

I will not yeet: Sabrar, Fontisian
I would not like to yeet: LaserGuy, bessie
I'm ambivalent about yeeting: wam, Eido, Maven,
I would consider yeeting:
I would like to yeet: Gorf, Swiss

Vote: Swiss

In my recollection you've always been the person to give new players advice in thread, especially if they were struggling and I don't see much of that now. Instead, Eido finds himself under the scrutiny of a bessie tunnel in addition to all the other eyes already on him.
And yeah, I extrapolated from the numbers you provided (and accurately it seems), because sans analysis, they were the best indication of your opinion available.

Remember this Somi push on Bessie. Seemed like character assassination to me. Unlikely to be partners.

Does Somi put their buddy as 'will not yeet'?
Bessie Laser fall into the 'oh this is safe' category.
But we've just seen probs not Bessie.
Leaving us Laser again.

 

[Swiss]

Let’s say Eido is a rolecop

he still couldn’t tell if it’s b1 or b2

because he doesn’t know

so it’s more likely he’s just a bit silly than that being a scum tell - because he can’t be acting with insideknowledge

Going back to this

If Eido is scum he'd be paranoid about not showing he has 'inside information'.

How then does he make the mistake he does by not reading properly?

 

[Swiss]

Some notes on somi/fonti up to end of page 10. My comments are in blue:

Spoiler

fonti throws somi into a scumteam with bessie based on a 'shroop'. This is never really followed up.



Says somi is null despite this.



somi doesn't ask what the shroop was or follow up in any way. Doesn't seem concerned.



fonti backpedals. The first of many.



This is fonti's strongest push vs. somi.



But not scum.



somi posts his reads just before this.




Based on comments by Sabrar and I, fonti comes up with this analysis, drops scumread on somi





Switches focus to Swiss with yeetbait Maven as backup.



somi now Townlean.

tl;dr: fonti puts some marginal pressure on somi with the weird 'shroop' thing, but never really follows up on it. Pushes a little against somi, but finds an excuse to back off and move against Swiss and/or Maven instead. Creates distance early, but does what she can to save him when it matters. Although it hadn't occurred to me until the page just dropped half of my quotes as I was writing this, the shroop thing seems really specious considering that these boards lose parts of posts all the time.

Laser who are you actually pushing this game? Because you've never made a proper push on font.

You've spent almost all game going "hurrrr maybe font but dey so gud idk xd im town"

 

[Swiss]

I forgot Font got their waffles all burnt end of d1 talking to me. Does a scum do this? Maybe, unlikely.
Bessie just plain skips the interaction which I like.

Which again, leaves Laser.