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Create your DLC likeliness chart!

ShinyRegice

Smash Lord
Joined
Jul 27, 2014
Messages
1,631
Location
France
I've wanted to bring some new life to this thread after the new wave of DLCs which came without any new character but still what's probably the most controversial thing about DLC speculation - the K. Rool costume, of course, so seeing it getting chart updates by other people is nice.

I'll wait for some new chart updates before updating the general chart, but I'm going to do a few things to my own chart regardless:

> downgrade King K. Rool to B tier;
> downgrade the 4th Mii Fighter to E tier;
> upgrade Pichu to C tier.

I've said in RTC that I had no idea of how likely K. Rool became overall after the costume, but I've finally come to think that he has more or less one third of a chance at this point, which fits in B tier for my standards.
 
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Joined
Apr 19, 2015
Messages
10,596
Wow, no one has posted here for a while...

Updating my chart:
S:

A:

B:

C:

D:

E:

F:

G:


Changes to my previous chart:
Upgraded:
Inkling C > B

Downgraded:
Dixie Kong B > C
Captain Toad C > D
Impa D > F
Rayman D > F
Ray E > F
Wonder Red E > F

Added:
Shantae to G
Shovel Knight to G

Removed the "Confirmed" tier, as it was unnecessary.
 

ShinyRegice

Smash Lord
Joined
Jul 27, 2014
Messages
1,631
Location
France
Thank for bumping this thread Sir Gengar de Èctoplasma Sir Gengar de Èctoplasma also I think I may change my chart:

Upgraded:
Inkling: D > A
King K. Rool: B > A
Ice Climbers: E > D

Downgraded:
Captain Toad: A > B
Rayman: D > E
Wonder Red: D > E
Banjo-Kazooie: E > F
Bayonetta: E > F
Codename S.T.E.A.M. character: E > F

Added:
Jibanyan in D tier

Moved:
Snake in C tier

Explanations:
> I used to doubt Inkling's chances because technical issues that would make their moveset a technical hell, but after thinking about it I think it could go either way; they managed to make Olimar work on the 3DS after all, though not without compromising their AI. Limiting the amount of ink they could put on the battlefield I think could work, and that ink could possibly occupy not much more RAM than a Luma or Mechakoopa for example. Transformations into a Squid wouldn't be too problematic as it's the kind of transformation like Kirby's stone which wouldn't cause too much trouble. I don't think the Mii costume means much, it was put for cheap promotion when Splatoon was very new and doesn't rule out the possibility of seeing actual playable Inklings at a later date once Splatoon is well established. Considering how influent Splatoon has been as a new Nintendo IP, giving it playable representation in Smash makes sense, and their popularity would make their inclusion worthy of being part of the Nintendo celebration rather than just a promotional trick.
> I actually doubt the kosplay means much for King K. Rool. I mean, what would make it impossible to release the actual K. Rool after that costume? The fact the last DLC stages borrow musics from previous DLC stages makes me think the costume cannot but the reason for K. Rool's exclusion. The only way this costume means anything is if it's a straight sign of disapproval from Sakurai himself.
> While the Ice Climbers are pretty much dead on the 3DS, maybe they could become Wii U exclusive. I'd be surprised to see that actually happen, especially considering Sakurai said he wanted the rosters to be the same between both versions, but I wouldn't rule out the possibility of him changing his mind about it.

> While Captain Toad makes a lot of sense imo I think that I was overestimating his chances as he's not really as influent or popular as other candidates.
> I don't think Rayman really has a good shot. He doesn't stand out that much and lacks incentives from Nintendo to add him.
> I also don't think Wonder Red has much of a shot, his game didn't manage to keep mometum due to how it bombed.
> While Bayonetta's appearance on the Wii U had been critically acclaimed I don't think it makes her worthy of being playable for third-party standards, imo she falls in the same category as Lloyd Irving or Monster Hunter, characters which are Mii costume material but not playable material. I actually half-expect her to be Mii'd in a future DLC wave.
> I remember I upgraded Banjo-Kazooie from F to E tier under the hype of the Phil Spencer tweet but actually I believe it doesn't mean really much after all, Nintendo has many other characters to choose from who would be much less of an administrative hell, as negotiating with a direct competitor will not be easy.
> Codename S.T.E.A.M. character is like Wonder Red, but even worse.

> Jibanyan comes from a series which is a cultural phenomenon in Japan, but he has yet to establish is fame worldwide.

> I know this may be an unpopular opinion, but part of me believes Snake was cut on purpose because he was a special guest whose inclusion in Smash wasn't easy in the first place and who wasn't meant to become a series regular. His fan support to come back would convince Sakurai to make him come back, though, but I'm not really expecting a third-party character owned by a company not involved in Smash 4 to become DLC.
 

ShinyRegice

Smash Lord
Joined
Jul 27, 2014
Messages
1,631
Location
France
What will happen to this thread after Character Discussion Board closes? Will it be moved, or just closed?
I don't feel like moving this thread to another subforum, instead I'll be advertising this thread in other places such as the new DLC discussion thread so we can (hopefully) have a final likeliness chart before the closure of the character speculation subforum. If there's enough new charts then the final version will be released October 30th before we can definitely say goodbye to this subforum (at least the ability to post here).
 

Ura

Smash Legend
Joined
Feb 4, 2014
Messages
12,838
Switch FC
SW-2772-0149-6703
Haven't done this in a while.

Confirmed: Mewtwo, Lucas, Roy, Ryu

S: Wolf

A: Isaac, Bandana Dee, King K Rool, Inklings, Paper Mario

B: Dixie Kong, Daisy, Rayman, Impa, Rhythm Heaven character

C: Sceptile, Krystal, Chibi-Robo, Captain Toad, Tetra

D: Bomberman, Solid Snake, Custom Ray, Andy, Simon Belmont

E: Shovel Knight, Shantae, Geno, Black Mage, Banjo & Kazooie

F: Pichu, YLink, Squirtle, Ivysaur, Ice Climbers

Legend

S Tier: It's only a matter of time before this character gets in.
A Tier: Characters have a very good chance of getting in.
B Tier: Chances that these characters get in the game are fairly good.
C Tier: Characters have an okay-ish chance of getting in but their not all that likely of getting in.
D Tier: Characters are pretty unlikely to get in the game
E Tier: Characters don't stand a chance of getting in unless a miracle happens for them.
F Tier: The chances of these characters getting in to this game is zero.

- I'm tempted to put Wolf in the A class if he's not revealed in the next Direct.

- Paper Mario's chances increase with his new game coming out IMO combined with the fact that he's heavily requested.

- Krystal's is fairly low on the list due to Wolf being much more likelier than her.

- I only put Shovel Knight from F to E tier because of the rumors back in August.

- RH character is upper-mid tier due to the data that was found of them last year.
 
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TallT

Smash Apprentice
Joined
Mar 30, 2015
Messages
178
Location
Earth
Sir Gengar de Èctoplasma Sir Gengar de Èctoplasma and Ura Ura I hope you guys don't mind if I copy your layouts but remix them.
A:

B:

C:

D:

E:

F:


Legend

S Tier: It's only a matter of time before this character gets in.
A Tier: Characters have a very good chance of getting in.
B Tier: Chances that these characters get in the game are fairly good.
C Tier: Characters have an okay-ish chance of getting in but their not all that likely of getting in.
D Tier: Characters are pretty unlikely to get in the game
E Tier: Characters don't stand a chance of getting in unless a miracle happens for them.
F Tier: The chances of these characters getting in to this game is close to zero.
 
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