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Comprehensive Analysis on the Smash 4 Roster (very long read)

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ChronoBound

Smash Hero
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Sep 20, 2006
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Introduction

After 6.5 years of waiting, we finally know the entire roster for Smash 4. The kind of rosters that avid fans and speculators were dreaming up back in 2008, or even more recently as of 2011, ended up being a far cry from the roster we actually ended up with.. Smash 4’s roster to many is a disappointment. The primary disappointment lies in the fact that the Top 3 newcomer choices (Ridley, Mewtwo, and a DK newcomer in the form of either K. Rool or Dixie Kong) did not get in, as well as the higher amount of cuts than even the Melee to Brawl transition. Ice Climbers (and the planned newcomer Chorus Men/Kids) were primarily a victim to the limitations of the 3DS hardware.

All of this leads to a situation where there are lot of unhappy campers despite the total number of playable characters (throwing in the three Mii Fighter movesets) sitting at exactly 50 (a number Sakurai had used repeatedly throughout the pre-Smash 4 period in relation to how big Smash 4’s roster could possibly be). In regards to actual character inclusions, much of the anger seems to be lobbed at the Clone Trinity (Dr. Mario, Dark Pit, and Lucina). As I saw one detractor say: “Last minute characters choices: Throw Mario in a lab jacket, re-color Pit, make Marth more feminine. Done”.

Really, aside from the clone trinity, there does not seem to be much complaints levied at the non-clone newcomers. Most of them seem to be directed toward the Mii Fighters (of which three unique movesets were made), however, I feel as though people might warm up to these over time. The Villger and Wii Fit Trainer were also initially controversial keep in mind.

Overall, the negative reaction to Smash 4’s roster is over the fact of what characters were not included (mostly Mewtwo, Ridley, and a DK newcomer) and what characters were cut (Lucas, Ice Climbers, and Wolf were real surprises for most people, despite what apologists might say).

Focus of the Roster and Background of the Newcomers

The Smash 4 newcomer roster was marked by two things in general:

1. Giving notable unrepped Nintendo franchises (ie. Franchises that either have sold millions upon millions of copies such as Animal Crossing and Wii Fit, or have loud dedicated fanbases and high accolades such as Punch-Out and Xenoblade) playable characters.

2. Had a major role in at least one software title (usually one met with very high sales and/or accolades) released between Brawl and Smash 4

So in the end, the primary two factors for newcomer inclusion this time around were relevancy and new franchise representation. Indeed, the sole newcomer on the Smash 4 roster not to have a notable software release during the epoch between Brawl and Smash 4 was the retro newcomer, Duck Hunt. Perhaps further pushing the relevancy argument is that only three of Smash 4’s newcomers had large fanbases for playable inclusion during the pre-Brawl period (Mega Man, Little Mac, and Bowser Jr.). Contrast that with Brawl, in which seven of its newcomer had large fanbases for inclusion during the pre-Melee period (Wario, Diddy Kong, King Dedede, Meta Knight, Wolf, Pit, and Charizard).

The stages for both the 3DS and Wii U versions draw mostly from releases from the DS, Wii, and 3DS (and rarely Wii U) epoch.

Indeed let’s looks at each and every single newcomer (including Dr. Mario) and look at what role they had in the interim between Brawl and Smash 4.

Rosalina:
Although this character was technically created before Brawl’s release, Super Mario Galaxy’s release was so late in Brawl’s development that there was absolutely no content from Super Mario Galaxy in Brawl, despite releasing 2.5 months later. Rosalina was a central character to the plot of Super Mario Galaxy, which ended up being amongst both the highest selling and most critically acclaimed 3D platformers of all time (in fact Super Mario Galaxy sold nearly as much as Brawl). Rosalina also had an auxiliary role in Super Mario Galaxy 2 (as the Cosmic Witch and a cameo at the end). Rosalina also made playable appearances in several Mario spinoffs, most notably the Mario Kart series. Despite the 3D series moving away from space, Rosalina continued to have prominence in the 3D Mario platformers, notably her playable role in Super Mario 3D World (to date the only major actor in the Mario platformers who has yet to become playable is Toad).

Bowser Jr.:
Bowser Jr. has been a major character in most of the Mario platformers since his debut in Super Mario Sunshine back in 2002. Indeed, the only three Mario platformers he was curiously absent from were Super Mario 3D Land, Super Mario 3D World, and New Super Mario Bros. 2. He made playable appearances in most Mario spinoffs released in the interim between Brawl and Smash 4 as well (with the major exceptions of Mario Kart 7 and Mario Kart 8). Sharing the slot with Bowser Jr. are the Koopalings, who were major supporting antagonists in New Super Mario Bros. Wii, 2, and U. They also made their first playable appearance in a Mario spinoff with Mario Kart 8. It should be imperative to note the fact that Bowser Jr. and the Koopalings attack from the Koopa Clown Car. The Koopa Clown Car was a central piece to the three 2D Mario titles released between Brawl and Smash 4. Indeed, Rosalina was a newcomer to represent the 3D line of Mario platformers released from Galaxy to 3D World, while Bowser Jr. (and the Koopalings) served as a newcomer to represent the 2D line of platformers. Its also important to note the massive popularity of the 2D Mario games (especially New Super Mario Bros. Wii). New Super Mario Bros. Wii sold over 25 million copies, and in Japan it is the second highest selling home console game of all time (with only the original Super Mario Bros. having sold more). Hopefully, this context will help explain why the Mario series received two completely unique newcomers this time around.

Dr. Mario:
Many have scratched their heads as to why Dr. Mario came back, while the much more popularly requested Mewtwo and Roy did not, and how he got a slot on the roster over notable and much more popular veterans Wolf and Lucas. While it is certainly likely that Dr. Mario was added in very late in development to slightly beef up the size of the roster, it is important to note that the Dr. Mario sub-series actually saw a lot of activity during the interim between Brawl and Smash 4. The WiiWare installment, Dr. Mario Online Rx, was a launch title for the WiiWare service released only a few months after Brawl. Dr. Mario Online Rx proved to be incredibly successful being amongst the Top 5 highest selling games for the download service. Dr. Mario Express was also released as a DSiWare title in 2009, and similarly enjoyed success (though amongst the Top 15 best selling DSiWare titles). There was also Dr. Luigi released as a new title less than a year ago. Dr. Mario also serves to represent Nintendo’s most popular (and longest running) puzzle series franchise, and possibly Nintendo’s move into download only software. The success of Dr. Mario’s new download only titles and the amount of them (three) probably played a part in Sakurai believing Mario’s labcoat clad alterego merited a second chance in the Smash Bros. series. On a lesser note, there is also the tradition that a character created by Gunpei Yokoi is added. In Melee it was Mr. Game & Watch and Dr. Mario, in Brawl it was ROB, and the Gunpei Yokoi tribute character in Smash 4 could very well be Dr. Mario’s return (although Yokoi did serve as the producer for Duck Hunt, and did design a toy based off of the game years before the video game equivalent back in the late 1970’s. The inclusion of Wild Gunman enemies into Duck Hunt’s moveset further proves that he is latest Yokoi character considering Sakurai made two notable Wild Gunman toys back during the 1970’s, and was the producer of the video game version).

Greninja:
Pokemon enjoyed a lot of success in the interim between Brawl and Smash 4. Of particular note was the franchise’s jump into full 3D with Pokemon X/Y. However, it is also important to note that Greninja was not particularly highly requested even after X/Y’s release (the most thrown around idea for X/Y was possibly for a new Pokemon Trainer featuring X/Y Pokemon starters). Pokemon X/Y was very successful, and to date is the highest selling software title for the Nintendo 3DS (Nintendo’s only successful console for the first half of this decade). Naturally, Sakurai (or the Pokemon Company) felt that someone should represent this new era for the Pokemon franchise, and Greninja seemed like the go to choice, and of course was warmly received.


Robin:

Fire Emblem Awakening was the sole fully new Fire Emblem game released since Brawl’s release (the other two had been remakes of Marth’s earlier romps). Awakening proved to be a massive success, ending up selling as much as the traditional second highest installment to the franchise in Japan (Seisen no Keifu), and being the highest selling installment for the series ever looking into worldwide sales. Although the face of this game was Chrom, and although Chrom was amongst the most highly requested newcomers and definitely by far the most highly supported character from Awakening, there was no denying the character was very similar to what Smash Bros. fans had already seen in Smash Bros. from the Fire Emblem series (Marth, Roy, Ike). Indeed, the traditional defense for Chrom had been for him to be a “middle of the road” between Marth and Ike, or others outright saying he should take Ike’s moveset. Sakurai fortunately knew better and understood the series needed to show that it was more than just “blue-haired swordsmen” and invited in the second main protagonist instead, Robin. Robin proved to be more highly received than Chrom likely would have been. Robin not only clearly contrasted himself from Marth, Roy, and Ike, but also other sword-wielding characters on the roster.

Lucina:
Lucina was largely seen as being too similar to Marth to warrant getting into Smash Bros. Ironically enough, it was likely for this reason that she most likely got in. Her high popularity amongst fans of Awakening and the success of Awakening itself probably helped too. She (along with Dark Pit) were probably last minute additions to the roster though.

Palutena:
Kid Icarus Uprising was a very pivotal title to Smash 4’s development and the 3DS library. It was seen as the best handheld action title ever upon release, and immense praise was lavished on the rail shooter sections and the script. Ever since Uprising’s announcement, there was interest expressed in the idea of Palutena becoming playable, and her support exploded in March 2012 when fans fell in love with Palutena’s banter (as well as the realization that Medusa was simply not that important to Uprising). Since then, Palutena was by far the most wanted and hyped potential female newcomer for Smash 4, and many felt she was among the few shoe-ins for the title (funny enough, other “shoe-ins” Mewtwo, Ridley, K. Rool, and Takamaru did not make it in). Uprising, being Sakurai’s last title to direct prior to development of Smash 4, obviously weighed heavily on his mind when deciding the roster. Palutena’s prominence in Uprising (being the most important character in the game next to Pit), her extremely high popularity since the release, and her importance to the Kid Icarus series in general (only character aside from Pit to be in all three games), made her a natural for Sakurai to include.


Dark Pit:

As with Lucina, Dark Pit likely was not planned from the beginning, and probably only got in when Sakurai wanted some quick extra characters to add in late in development. Dark Pit played a major role in Uprising (though arguably less important than Hades and Viridi). Nevertheless, it might have been clear Sakurai had a softspot for the character, considering he is the only other character aside from Pit and Palutena in which a Figma (a brand of expensive and well-made action figures) was made for. There were many who thought Medusa would have been the natural choice for a Kid Icarus clone newcomer (of Palutena), however, looks like Sakurai had something else in mind.

Villager:
Animal Crossing is among Nintendo’s best selling franchises. The franchise particularly exploded with the release of Wild World on the Nintendo DS back in late 2005. Sakurai had initially intended to include the Villager in Brawl, but ultimately felt the series was too pacifist to warrant a fighter. The continued very high success to the franchise since then with City Folk and especially New Leaf (New Leaf being amongst the most notable and highest selling software titles for the 3DS) probably contributed to Sakurai re-assessing his opinion on the Animal Crossing series warranting a playable character. In terms of sales though, Animal Crossing certainly sells better than most other franchises in Smash Bros., with the only two clearly selling better being Mario and Pokemon.

Wii Fit Trainer:
Amongst the most surprising additions for Smash 4, practically no one requested this character. However, Wii Fit Trainer epitomizes Nintendo’s non-gamer revolution during the 2005-2010 DS/Wii epoch. The two Wii Fit installments on the Wii (Wii Fit and Wii Fit Plus) sold exceptionally well, with Wii Fit having sold over 20 million copies worldwide, and Wii Fit Plus also having sold over 20 million copies. With Wii Fit being such a massive franchise, Sakurai naturally felt the series deserved some sort of representation in Smash Bros., despite the series having almost no following amongst those who traditionally play Smash Bros.

Little Mac:
Little Mac seemed to Western Smash Bros. fans as the new obvious retro newcomer to include for Smash 4. Fortunately for Little Mac, a new installment in his franchise was developed for the Wii. This installment sold well in the West, and received high accolades. Punch-Out, already being amongst Nintendo’s longest running franchises (starting in 1984), deserved notice on a roster dedicated to giving access to more Nintendo franchises without playable representation. The success and release of Punch-Out Wii as well as the very high requests for the character in the West, meant he was a priority to include.

Shulk:
Xenoblade was definitely a niche release. It sold only 200K in Japan, and experienced limited releases in the West (especially in North America where its retail release was relegated to limited shipments to GameStop). Despite this, Xenoblade still ended up with a very dedicated fan following in both Japan and the West. By those who played it, it is not only considered amongst best titles for the Wii, but also the best JRPG of the last generation (and many go even as far to say amongst the best RPGs of all time). Of all the newcomer franchise representatives, Shulk definitely had the least remarkable resume. Even Sakurai remarked that Shulk was a character that he would traditionally not include. Nevertheless, Xenoblade in the run up to Smash 4 was well on its way to becoming a cult classic and being a masterpiece. Shulk was basically the Isaac of the pre-Smash 4 period, however, he actually did end up getting in. The sheer amount of accolades Xenoblade has as well as its very dedicated fanbase (as well as a planned spiritual sequel for the Wii U and port for the New 3DS) were all factors in Shulk getting in.

Mii Fighters:
Mii’s are the face of Nintendo’s return to dominance in the home console market (although it appears it was only for a single generation). Wii Sports is the highest selling video game of all time, and Wii Play is alongside Mario Kart Wii, the highest selling non-bundled game of all time. Mii’s proved to be so popular that both Microsoft and Sony incorporated customizable avatars into their consoles. Mii’s are a major part of Nintendo now. Sakurai had initially written off Mii’s as playable characters when deciding the roster back in 2005 (he probably had no idea how big they were going to become), but they proved to be so successful that they definitely needed to have a second look. One of the main aspects to Mii’s is their customization, so it makes sense that Sakurai and his team developed three separate movesets for them. The three main arch-types for humanoid playable characters in Smash Bros. are hand-to-hand combatants, sword wielders, and projectile-based (although movesets that solely focus on projectiles are relatively scarce compared to the former two). Although the core fans of Smash Bros. seem to be ambivalent about their inclusion, in reality their inclusion is amongst the most major of the newcomers to have made it in this time around (especially outside Mega Man and Pac-Man).

Mega Man:
Of all Smash 4’s newcomers, Mega Man clearly has the most starpower and hype amongst Smash Bros. fans. He was among the Top 10 most wanted newcomers during the pre-Brawl period, and for much of the pre-Smash 4 period he was the most wanted newcomer. Mega Man, like every other newcomer for Smash 4 (except Duck Hunt) did experience some activity for his franchise (particularly the classic one) despite what detractors might say. Mega Man 9 and Mega Man 10 were released after Brawl’s release, and were the first new releases in the classic series in a decade. Mega Man 9 in particular was among the most notable WiiWare titles, and was met with a lot of hype and praise. Mega Man in general is among the most popular and iconic non-Nintendo video game characters, so his inclusion in Smash Bros. really brought a lot of starpower into it, at a point where much of the major Nintendo characters (especially those for veteran franchises) had already been selected with Brawl.

Pac-Man:
Pac-Man did receive a lot of activity since Brawl’s release (he is Namco’s mascot afterall). However, he didn’t really do anything major except getting a sub-par new cartoon series, and making some cameos alongside Mario in the arcade exclusive Mario Kart games (which were already happening before Brawl’s release). However, Pac-Man in general is amongst the most popular and iconic game characters of all time, and his inclusion in general brought a lot of starpower to Smash 4’s roster. Indeed the only newcomers for Smash 4 that are probably recognizable to a mass audience are Pac-Man, Mii’s, Mega Man, Villager, Bowser Jr., and probably Little Mac and Duck Hunt (Duck Hunt was possibly the second highest selling title on the NES due to being a pack-in game), and maaaybe Rosalina and the Wii Fit Trainer.


Speculation Review:

As with Melee and Brawl, I was a roster speculator for Smash 4. However, while many of the newcomers were extremely obvious that they would come (Little Mac, Mega Man, Palutena), others (like Wii Fit Trainer) blindsided most people. The purpose of this section is to review not only whether or not I saw those respective newcomers coming, but also how the rest of the Smash Bros. speculation scene did.

Villager:
Personally, I was not expecting the Villager. Sakurai’s own statement about him feeling the series was too pacifist to warrant a playable character made me think a playable Animal Crossing character was not a contender (especially considering the explosion of popularity for Animal Crossing had already happened at a time when Sakurai was deciding the roster for Brawl). There were a few others that did think that Villager could still happen, but the overwhelming majority of speculators believed a playable Animal Crossing character would not happen. His inclusion is what made many people believe the Sal Romano/Gematsu leak (especially alongside Wii Fit Trainer).

Wii Fit Trainer:
Myself and every other speculator did not see this character coming. It was Gematsu/Sal Romano getting this character right that people revised their rosters to include Pac-Man and Mii’s (then still controversial roster choices) and that a legitimate leak had happened. Truly a character that blindsided everyone.

Mega Man:
I personally thought Mega Man had among the best chances to be included in Smash 4, and so did most other speculators. He had been a character that was among the most highly requested during the pre-Brawl period, and even Capcom had expressed interest in his inclusion. He seemed to have little standing in his way aside from disgruntled Mega Man fans believing that Capcom hated Mega Man or his third-party status in general. The fact that he was the single most wanted newcomer (especially true newcomer) in both Japan and the West helped immensely. One of the few characters that had a large following for inclusion during the pre-Brawl days that actually managed to get in as a newcomer this time.

Rosalina:
For much of the pre-Smash 4 period, myself and most other speculators did not consider Rosalina to be a contender. She had a weaker resume than the likes of Toad, Paper Mario, and Bowser Jr. (and arguably Waluigi and Dr. Mario). Also, all the previously mentioned characters had a higher amount of requests than her. Anyone that suggests she was highly requested is being revisionist. It was only when she was confirmed as a character in Super Mario 3D World back in October 2013 that people started to view her as a plausible contender to be a Mario newcomer. I viewed Rosalina as a contender at that point, but I felt Bowser Jr. and Paper Mario had better chances than her. Even then, Bowser Jr. and Paper Mario (and even Waluigi) enjoyed more requests than her at that point in time. Two months later Rosalina would be confirmed, so the wait for much of the Rosalina fanbase (much of which only manifested in October) was very short. Overall, I would see this as a half point for myself, it was really until her 3D World inclusion that I saw her as a contender.

Little Mac:
Like with Mega Man, myself and most other speculators believed Little Mac would be a newcomer in Smash 4. He had been highly requested during the pre-Brawl period, was even more highly requested (Top 5) during the pre-Smash 4 period, and had a successful new installment released on the Wii. The only thing that people saw as obstacles to his inclusion were his Western exclusive popularity and him only being able to punch. Little Mac making it in was not a surprise to anyone who was a serious or avid speculator.

Greninja:
There was only ONE very highly requested Pokemon character during much of the pre-Smash 4 period, and that was Mewtwo. Mewtwo ranked alongside Mega Man as the most highly requested character to be in Smash 4 that was not playable in Brawl. Most speculators were expecting Mewtwo’s return for Smash 4. Amongst true Pokemon newcomers, no one really rose. The closest was Zoroark, but even he failed to take off and many were cynical about the character (many viewing it as a Dark Lucario ripoff). There were even lesser choices like Victini, Meloetta, and Genesect, but all of them failed to retain their fanbases or grow them to notable sizes. When Pokemon X/Y was released, there were grumblings about a new trainer replacing Brawl’s trainer and Pokemon, and that we would get three newcomers from X/Y’s starters. Greninja seemed to be the most popular among the third forms for each starter for X/Y. However, for Greninja although he was well-received among Pokemon fans, he was never viewed a contender for a stand alone by most speculators, and the support for a X/Y trainer in general was low. Greninja came as a surprise to many, and there were many Smash Bros. fans who initially believed his trailer was going to unveil Mewtwo. As with Rosalina, its revisionist to say this character was ever very highly requested, the pre-Smash 4 period was virtually barren for requests for true Pokemon newcomers, and with much of the debates mostly centering on which out of Mewtwo, Lucario, Jigglypuff, and Pokemon Trainer would not be in Smash 4.

Palutena:
Another character that myself and most other speculators thought was very likely to be in. Palutena in general was regarded as the single most likely female newcomer to get since 2012, however, ironically two other female newcomers were announced before her. Palutena (throwing out veterans Mewtwo and Roy) was among the Top 5 most wanted newcomers for Smash 4 since Uprising’s release in March 2012. In general, unlike Mega Man and Little Mac, there was not seen to be any obstacle for Palutena’s inclusion.

Mii Fighters:
For much of the pre-Smash 4 period, there was a very high animosity to the idea of Mii’s as playable character not only among Smash Bros. fans but also avid speculators. Myself I thought Mii’s were a contender due to the fact that Sakurai, despite naysaying them in an interview during the pre-Brawl period, would probably have to reassess them due to the explosion of popularity Mii centered titles such as Wii Sports, Wii Play, Tomadachi Life, and many other titles occurred after Sakurai had already decided Brawl’s roster. The fact that among veteran series starpower was lacking in the potential pool was another plus for them I felt. However, I by no means saw them as likely, and saw their potential inclusion going either way. Myself and nearly all speculators did not foresee there being three separate movesets made for Mii’s (though I thought their inclusion would involve customization). One of the few newcomer inclusions that I saw coming than many others did not. Naturally, people had to change their prognosis on their likeliness after E3 2013 (due to the Gematsu/Sal Romano leak), but even then many still felt they were unlikely (indeed, their inclusion alongside Pac-Man’s were the primary drivers about why the detractors to Sal Romano did not want the leak to be real).

Pac-Man:
Pac-Man was another controversial character among speculators. Pac-Man did not become seen to be a contender (and really did start to get a noticeable amount of requests) until the announcement that Namco was developing Smash 4 in July 2012. Even then Pac-Man, never became very highly requested (usually he would be among the Top 15 or Top 20 though), and he received a lot of detractors to his inclusion. After the Namco announcement, I did think Pac-Man was the most likely third-party newcomer to be added after Mega Man. However, I thought his primary obstacle was a lack of interest from Smash Bros. fans. I thought he had a good chance (prior to the Gematsu leak), but I did not think he was a shoe-in like Mega Man was. Over half of speculators thought Pac-Man would not make it in. It was not until the Gematsu/Sal Romano leak next year that opinions on Pac-Man started to change. However, even then, there was always a mixed reception to the idea of Pac-Man even though he was increasingly regarded as the only likely third-party newcomer after Mega Man. The hype for Pac-Man slowly grew over the course of the year, and eventually did become among the Top 10 most wanted newcomers for Smash 4, however, its probably safe to say he never was among the Top 5. The existence of classic Namco arcade game based items further proved Pac-Man was going to be a newcomer. Detractors to Pac-Man finally warmed up to the arcade icon when he was finally unveiled, showing that he not only brought a lot of starpower to the roster, but also lots of charm (its great that they used the classic design for him as opposed to that creepy Ghostly Adventures update).

Robin:
This is one of the few things in which I broke with the rest of the speculation community on. Nearly every speculator thought Chrom was a shoe-in to be a newcomer. I personally thought Chrom was too bland and uninteresting to warrant getting in, especially compared to the previous three Fire Emblem characters that had already gotten into Smash Bros. at that point. The common defense of Chrom was that he would be a “middle of the road” swordsmen between Marth and Ike, however, I personally found that to be again droll and boring, and thought Sakurai might opt to do something more unconventional (namely the inclusion of Robin / My Unit). I thought the only way Chrom was getting in was if Sakurai cut Ike. I thought that if Sakurai wanted to represent Fire Emblem Awakening with a playable character, yet wanted to keep Ike, that he would incorporate Robin (My Unit into the roster). Robin’s support was always low especially compared to Chrom and Roy. Indeed, the only the two Fire Emblem characters to have even been with the Top 10 (or even Top 20) for the pre-Smash 4 period were Roy and Chrom. Chrom was seen as a mainstay for every speculation roster. The prospects for Chrom soared even higher with the second round of the Gematsu/Sal Romano leak in April. Chrom was seen as all but inevitable at that point, and even myself had accepted that Chrom was indeed a part of the roster (though personally I thought the inclusion was redundant especially after the confirmation of Ike’s return). The leak involving Chrom basically echoes what happened with Krystal during the last few months of 2007. In an interview with a Star Fox fansite, Krystal’s voice actress said that not only was she voicing Zero Suit Samus in Brawl, but also that she would be reprising her role as Krystal in it. Naturally, everyone took this to mean that she was as good as confirmed. We all knew what actually happened (it turned out that voicework for Krystal was relegated to stage conversations on Lylat Cruise). Chrom supporters were thus in for a massive shock when it turned out that not one, but both of his co-starring main protagonists usurped his slot. However, I was pleasantly surprised on Robin’s inclusion and thought it was well-deserved (I wish I could say the same for Lucina…). Robin proved to be the breath of fresh air that Fire Emblem’s playable representation desperately needed. Indeed, with his female alternate also playable, it seemed as though Robin covered all the bases (represented Awakening, not a Marth/Roy/Ike style sword-user, and for some female). Robin’s inclusion vindicated my belief that Chrom was not the “shoe-in” everyone else thought him to be, and that Sakurai would opt to include Robin if pressed to include someone to represent Awakening. Robin turned out to be very well received.

Lucina:
Most speculators believed that four Fire Emblem characters was a long-shot. Personally, I disagreed and thought there was a 50/50 chance of it happening. However, I saw the representation for this happening being Marth, Ike, Robin, and Roy. I thought only a clone or luigi-fied clone stood any chance for the Fire Emblem series getting four playable character, and due to the fact that Roy was among the most highly requested characters and due to him being planned for Brawl, I thought that if there was a fourth Fire Emblem character, that it was going to be Roy. Many speculators attacked the idea of Roy returning on the grounds of the idea of Fire Emblem getting four slots, and that he would be a clone or luigi-fied clone. As to Lucina, personally I thought she was too similar to Marth to warrant being a newcomer (much more so than Chrom was similar to Ike), and that if a FE clone did happen, that it was going to be Roy. Among speculators, there were a few that thought Lucina was going to replace Marth, and her support was always outside the Top 20, possibly even lower than Robin’s, which is saying something. Lucina, although she was well-liked among people who played Awakening, suffered due to her very strong aesthetic similarities to Marth. Ironically enough, it was due to these very strong similarities to Marth that she even got into Smash 4 as a newcomer (Lucina was originally an alternate costume for Marth that got promoted into being a separate character very late in development). Unlike most clone newcomers, Lucina was warmly received by a sizable portion of the fanbase (though many also still attacked her for being a clone). I think the primary reason for this is that Lucina was well-liked from her own game and that female newcomers in general (no matter who they are) end up being well-received. However, personally Lucina is among two newcomers for Smash 4 (the other being Dark Pit) that I am not keen on, and I think Awakening was well-represented just by Robin.

Shulk:
Shulk was basically the Isaac of the pre-Smash 4 period. He was a highly requested blonde-haired hero from a critically acclaimed RPG developed by a development team that used to be third-party to Nintendo. Isaac too retained a lot of his fanbase from the pre-Brawl era (although Dark Dawn was a step down from its GBA predecessors, it at least kept the Golden Sun series within recent memory), and many people often debated which of the two (Shulk or Isaac) would get the RPG series protagonist slot. Due to Xenoblade’s overwhelming accolades and viral word of mouth, the popularity of Shulk gradually grew since 2011. By 2014, he was among the Top 10 most wanted newcomers for Smash 4. I felt between the two that Shulk was easily the more likely one primary due to Xenoblade being much more recent (whereas Isaac was a relic from the GBA era), the much higher accolades for it than Dark Dawn, and due to the high amount of Japanese fan requests for the character. Many speculators also thought that Shulk had good prospects to enter, but there were also a good deal who were skeptical (namely because Isaac was in a similar situation as Shulk was during pre-Brawl, yet still was not playable). The hype and interest for Shulk climbed ever higher after the second Gematsu leak in April, and was soon within the Top 5 most wanted newcomers (especially after Palutena’s confirmation). Sakurai did later went on to say that Shulk was a character that he traditionally would not have included showing that Shulk could very well have gotten the same treatment that Isaac did (an unlockable Assist Trophy). Needless to say, Shulk was very well-received.


Bowser Jr.:

Bowser Jr. was one of the only three newcomers for Smash 4 (the other two being Mega Man and Little Mac) that had sizable fanbase for playable inclusion dating back to the pre-Brawl days. Myself and most other speculators did consider Bowser Jr. to be a strong contender for the Mario newcomer slot for most of the pre-Smash 4 era. However, there was debate about whether he would be a luigified clone or completely unique character. Bowser Jr. was always among the Top 10 most wanted newcomers, and in general probably the most wanted Mario newcomer (although lots of support existed for other Mario character such as Paper Mario, Toad, Waluigi, and late in 2013, Rosalina). After the confirmation of Rosalina at the end of 2013, most speculators believed that Bowser Jr.’s (along with that of other possible Mario newcomers) had massively depreciated, and it was likely he would not get in. My own belief was that a second Mario newcomer could still happen, however, if it did it was going to be a clone (either Melee-style or luigifed). In that case I saw Bowser Jr. and Dr. Mario having the best shots. I did still see Bowser Jr. as a contender to be a newcomer, however, I certainly did not see the Mario series getting a second completely unique newcomer. Most speculators were surprised as well. The inclusion of the Koopalings as alternates for Bowser Jr. sweetened the deal for many. Bowser Jr. certainly deserved his playable inclusion.

Duck Hunt:
There was always a small cadre of supporters for the infamous Duck Hunt Dog (or at least as far back as the pre-Brawl days). However, most speculators (including myself) did not see the character as a plausible contender for the obligatory retro newcomer slot. Most (including myself) thought it would go to Takamaru this time around (who many saw as a shoe-in). There was also a large contingent who thought Mach Rider would be the retro newcomer, and a small dedicated base believed that it would be Lip. Personally, I did not think the character, despite being well known among North American gamers (Duck Hunt was a pack-in game for much of the NES’s life, and ended up being among the Top 5 best selling games for the platform) was not a retro newcomer contender. Duck Hunt was a rather obscure title in Japan, and I thought would be ignored for that reason. Duck Hunt Dog did have his supporters though, however, there were many vehemently opposed to the idea, arguing that this character was better suited for Assist Trophy status than a full blown playable character. In the end it was Takamaru as the Assist Trophy, and the infamous mocking dog as the playable character. There is some that believe that the Duck Hunt Dog was placed in as a replacement for the Ice Climbers as a representative for early stand alone NES/Famicom titles (Ice Climbers got their slot in Melee due to being the most unique potential representative for this). However, its also worth noting that characters like Mr. Game & Watch, ROB, and possibly Wii Fit Trainer also served as hardware/peripheral representatives, and arguably Duck Hunt (which was played with the NES Zapper). Arguably, you could also say that like Mr. Game & Watch and ROB, he is connected with Gunpei Yokoi, although while Yokoi did design the Game & Watch and ROB, he merely served as a producer for Duck Hunt. However, he did personally design a light gun toy called Duck Hunt back in the late 1970’s. Further suggesting that Duck Hunt is the next Gunpei Yokoi newcomer is the fact the Wild Gunman are featured with Duck Hunt’s moveset. Yokoi had designed two Wild Gunman toys back during the 1970’s, and was the producer of the video game version. Duck Hunt, due to his iconic status among older Nintendo fans, was warmly met despite being a character few asked for. Among those who did not play Duck Hunt or knew this title’s importance to the NES, he was met with the same hostility that initially greeted Mr. Game & Watch and ROB. Indeed, I personally do think this character is a Nintendo All-Star even if its for a stand alone title, simply due to how important and high selling Duck Hunt was as a title for Nintendo’s first home console among North American fans.


Dr. Mario:

Who would have guessed that Dr. Mario would return and not Mewtwo? Probably no one. Most speculators thought Dr. Mario was a longshot at returning. I always thought Dr. Mario was a plausible contender to return for the fact that Sakurai intended to bring him back for Brawl (as well as Mewtwo and Roy). However, even myself could not have imagined a scenario where Dr. Mario returned, yet Mewtwo (and/or Roy) did not. However, I always thought that if there was another Mario slot after Rosalina, that it was going to be Bowser Jr. or Dr. Mario (again, I could not imagine it being both). Dr. Mario got in as I said he would, possibly a quick and easy last minute measure to add an additional character onto the roster. Dr. Mario’s potential return even before the leaks, was vehemently opposed by most Smash Bros. fans. Many regard Dr. Mario as the worst character addition ever for the series after Pichu (and there are many who think he is a worse addition than Pichu). The fact that Dr. Mario returned, while more popular veterans like Mewtwo, Ice Climbers (though their reason for exclusion was most likely technical), Wolf, Roy, and Lucas, did not, has infuriated many Smash Bros. fans. However, Dr. Mario was likely a lot more feasible as a last minute addition than any of the other non-returning Smash Bros. veterans. Needless to say, I was not as surprised about Dr. Mario’s return as most speculators. What surprised me about his return was the fact that he came back amidst the fact that so many veterans did not. As mentioned earlier, Dr. Mario did experience a lot of activity since Brawl’s release, and I do think he belongs in Smash Bros. considering the Dr. Mario series is Nintendo’s most notable puzzle series next to Panel de Pon/Puzzle League. However, the return of Dr. Mario will likely be used as a detraction point against Smash 4’s roster for years to come (though I think there will be many to forgive his return if we some of the excluded veterans come back as DLC). He seems to be received better than Dark Pit due to him having his Melee fanbase and the disdain over FLUDD as part of Mario’s moveset. Personally, Dr. Mario is the only one of the Clone Trinity that I am not “thumbs down” on. I do think he is a Nintendo All-Star even if he is an alterego simply due to the series he represents.

Dark Pit:
A newcomer that could potentially rival Dr. Mario and Pichu in unpopularity? While most Smash Bros. fans and speculators knew Palutena was going to be in, there were some that believed that Kid Icarus would receive a second newcomer. However, most support was given to Medusa, Hades, and Viridi. There were a few that supported Dark Pit, however, most believed he would return as he was originally introduced, as a palette swap for Pit. This is too what I thought Dark Pit’s role in Smash 4 was going to be. Support for Dark Pit slowly grew over time. There were some that started suggesting Dark Pit as a clone of Pit during the second half of 2013 in light of Pit having changes to his Brawl moveset. There were also some that argued a second Pit was needed due to all the cool, interesting, and unique weapons that were made for Uprising, and that Pit could not be changed too much to reflect the amount of content produced by Uprising, so Dark Pit was needed to fill the void. Support for Dark Pit remained unchanged up until Palutena’s confirmation in June. At the end of Palutena’s unveil trailer, there is an animated part where Dark Pit descends, and Palutena remarks, “Dark Pit… you here to crash my party?”, and he replies “uh huh” (meaning yeah). Many speculated about what this meant. Some thought that it meant that Dark Pit would be a boss fight/stage hazard (similar to Ridley and the Yellow Devil), however, there was an equal amount that thought Dark Pit was being hinted at as a newcomer. It turns out those fans of Dark Pit, were not reading too deeply (though its possible this scene was animated before Dark Pit was added onto the roster). As with Lucina, I thought Uprising was adequately represented with just the inclusion of Palutena, and I think the Kid Icarus series does not warrant as many playable characters as it has games. However, I think it was a circumstance of luck and time constraints that both Kid Icarus and Fire Emblem gained an extra newcomer.


Overall Assessment and Analysis:

There seems to be two camps in regards to Smash 4’s roster. One is the sycophant camp which sees the roster as absolutely amazing and that all of Sakurai’s decisions with it were absolutely impeccable. The second camp are those howling that they have been deeply betrayed (this is usually echoed by ardent supporters of Mewtwo, Ridley, and a DK newcomer, or fans of the Brawl veterans that happened to be cut).

I think a middle position is the best. I do think there is little reason why Mewtwo and Ridley were excluded, and Wolf and Lucas being cut made little sense. I am also not keen on the additions of Lucina and Dark Pit, though understand their additions in the context that they may have been the most feasible newcomers to add very late in development as replacements for possibly Ice Climbers and Chorus Men being scrapped due to the limitations of the 3DS.

Smash 4’s roster is definitely not definitive, and could have been better, but it is by no means bad, and there is actually an unconventional greatness to it, and achievement to it, that I think most Smash Bros. fans (both the sycophants and haters) have probably overlooked.

Back in early 2009, I crafted by own roster for Smash 4. I spent a lot of time contemplating the roster and even made movesets for all of its planned newcomers. One thing I realized was that Brawl had already added in most of the notable characters from Nintendo’s veteran franchises, and that in order for things to remain “fresh” most of the newcomers would need to hail from franchises that had yet to gain a playable character in Smash Bros. I suggested for the return of Mewtwo, Roy, and Dr. Mario, with the latter two being de-cloned, along with Ganondorf being de-cloned. The only three true newcomers I had for veteran franchises were Toad, Ridley, and K. Rool, along with Black Shadow as a character to take on Ganondorf’s Melee/Brawl moveset.

I argued that it would have been foolish to look towards side characters from veteran franchises, and that instead in a bid to restore the diminished starpower that the Smash 4 newcomer pool appeared to have compared to Brawl’s, should instead allocate at least half of its newcomer slots to franchises without a playable character. The characters I suggested were Little Mac (Punch-Out), Isaac (Golden Sun), Starfy (Legendary Starfy), Lip (Panel de Pon/Puzzle League), and Ray (Custom Robo). I also suggested Mega Man as a third-party newcomer. Interestingly enough, Mega Man’s moveset for Smash 4 is pretty similar to the one I devised in 2009 (at least in the sense that all/most of Mega Man’s moves derive from the powers he had from Mega Man 1-8).

Sakurai seemed to have understood something similar. There were only four veteran franchises that received newcomers in Smash 4: Mario, Pokemon, Fire Emblem, and Kid Icarus. All of these (except Pokemon) received an additional newcomer as well (though for Fire Emblem and Kid Icarus they were last minute additions). All of these newcomer additions were also on the back of extremely notable releases for their respective franchises. For Mario it was the Super Galaxy games which still remain the most highly acclaimed 3D platformers of all time (and Galaxy was a massive seller), and the New Super Mario Bros. series (especially NSMBWii) which were massive sales drivers. For Fire Emblem it was Awakening, which brought the series sales in Japan to a level not seen since the Super Famicom days, and in the West was the most hyped release since the first international installment (FE7), Awakening also ended up being the highest selling installment to the Fire Emblem series. For Kid Icarus, it was obviously Uprising, which was the first new game in the series in over 20 years, and Sakurai’s first major Nintendo title that was not Kirby or Smash Bros. Pokemon’s development was less profound than the other three, but X/Y was nevertheless the highest selling game for the Nintendo 3DS and the first truly 3D mainline installment for Nintendo’s biggest franchise next to Mario.

However, Sakurai must have mused that he needed a plethora of newcomers that were easily recognizable to a mass-audience, especially considering Brawl had added the likes of Sonic, Snake, Wario, Diddy Kong, Squirtle, Charizard, arguably Ivysaur, Olimar, King Dedede, Meta Knight, and arguably Wolf.

Sakurai probably (correctly) assessed that the well had basically gone dry for veteran franchises, and instead would have to look towards new horizons (new franchises) to give Smash 4’s roster the starpower it desperately needed. The DS/Wii/3DS epoch fortunately provided fertile ground for a new generation of Nintendo franchises to take root and become popular (in the case of Animal Crossing more popular, and in the case of Punch-Out become well-received among a new generation).

Both Wii Fit games sold over 20 million copies, the Animal Crossing games sell over six million (much more than most veteran franchises in Smash Bros.), and Wii Sports/Wii Play were among the highest selling games of all time (not to mention all the other games Mii’s were featured in). Sakurai stayed true to Smash Bros. as a gathering of Nintendo’s All-Stars, and added in characters to represent those franchises even though they hardly were characters the people who played Smash Bros. were interested in or played (especially Wii Fit).

Although Sakurai added in casual and non-gamer icons Wii Fit Trainer, Villager, and Mii Fighters, he also gave the iconic Little Mac a slot, and acknowledged Xenoblade’s immense accolades and dedicated cult fanbase and gave one to Shulk as well. Duck Hunt also was another addition with starpower to his North American audiences.

Sakurai was also fortunate enough to add in the possibly the only two other third-party characters as popular and iconic as Sonic and Snake: Mega Man and Pac-Man.

In comparison to Sakurai’s selection of newcomers from new franchises, the only two we shared were Little Mac and Mega Man, and overall, Sakurai’s choices were far superior in terms of casual recognition and starpower.

Just looking at the sad trajectory of Nintendo’s C-list series confirms this. Golden Sun did receive a new installment after Brawl’s release (in 2010), but it was met with a tepid reception and much weaker sales than its GBA predecessors. In interviews after its release, it seemed as though Camelot (the developer of the Golden Sun series) is reluctant to develop any more RPG’s (the sales were a massive dropoff from the GBA titles especially in Japan).

Starfy’s last installment was released only a few months after Brawl’s release in 2008, and while this installment was brought over internationally in 2009, this series has effectively been dormant for over six years. The only new release for the Panel de Pon/Puzzle League series after Brawl’s release was a stripped down port of Panel de Pon DS/Planet Puzzle League called Puzzle League Express released for the DSiWare in 2009. Custom Robo has not seen a new installment since 2006.

Sakurai managed to have a set of newcomers that had a high amount of starpower as well as recognizable to non-hardcore Nintendo fans and casual audiences. Characters such as the Mega Man, Pac-Man, Villager, Little Mac, Mii Fighters, Wii Fit Trainer, Bowser Jr. (and the Koopalings!), Duck Hunt, and arguably Rosalina are characters who could be recognized by the casual gamer. This is very impressive coming off of Brawl, which pretty much used up nearly all the low hanging fruits in terms of newcomers.

Sakurai may not have given the roster we all wanted, but he definitely was able to make another Smash Bros. game where it he added in a lot of genuine newcomer Nintendo All-Stars as well as among the most popular and iconic non-Nintendo characters ever.

This was a very impressive feat, and its something that I think in the context of the entirety of Smash 4’s newcomers needs to be noticed.

Well done Sakurai. Well done. (If only you added Ridley).

While characters like Palutena, Shulk, and Robin appeal to the core Nintendo fan, it is also important to place in characters that actually are iconic and recognizable to less ardent Nintendo fans. Sakurai’s expansion to add the casual/non-gamer Nintendo franchise trinity was necessary. Combined masterfully with the additions of newcomers from the Mario franchise, icons from the NES days (Little Mac and Duck Hunt), and guest duo Mega Man and Pac-Man, Sakurai was able to successfully make a set of newcomers that could stand their own next to Brawl’s.

Smash 4’s newcomer selection is impressive for sure, but its definitely not a definitive Smash Bros. roster (too many veterans missing for one, as well as 1-2 All-Stars that definitely deserved inclusion that missed the boat).

However, Sakurai definitely deserves credit for the amount of starpower he was able to put together coming after Brawl. I think many Smash Bros. fans have underestimated just how popular the Mii Fighters will be, and how much of a major addition they are (arguably they could even be on par with the likes of Mega Man and Pac-Man).


My Plans Going Forward

For years now, I have been saying that Smash 4 would be the last Smash Bros. game in which I would be speculating on. I had originally anticipated that Ridley (my single most wanted newcomer since I first became a fan of the series) would finally be added in as a playable character this time around, but I have come to terms that Sakurai is basically a Too Bigot in regards to the character unfortunately.

My interest in games had also been gradually depreciating over the course of the years throughout the pre-Smash 4 period. Smash 4 was the only game in all of 2014 I was even looking forward to. I have no other titles that I am looking forward to at this point (aside from the final version of Project M if that is even considered a separate game). Hopefully the inevitable Majora’s Mask 3D is not a New 3DS exclusive title (boy would that piss off most Nintendo 3DS owners and Majora’s Mask fans).

As many others have a lot noticed, I have become a lot less active in speculation and in posting as the years went on in the Smash Bros. community. Not only have I lost interest in speculation, but I also have a lot less time for it than I used to have. Nor do I want to have time for it, I think my time would be better spent on other things than speculation for a game years upon years away from release.

Ridley was basically the lure to keep me on after Brawl’s release to be hyped for a potential Smash 4. I was also looking forward to the return of Mewtwo and Roy (which Project M fortunately did), as well as the additions of Mega Man and Little Mac, but nothing compares to how much I wanted Ridley.

It is really a shame, had Sakurai de-confirmed Ridley last year, it probably would have been enough time for the Project M team to go and add Ridley (who they said would be an extremely difficult character for their team to add). I quipped earlier this year that aside from death and taxes, there is a third certainty in life. That third certainty is that despite the amount of popular support he has for inclusion in a Smash Bros. game (Melee, Brawl, Project M, Smash 4) he never gets in as a playable character.

I wish the rest of the Ridley fanbase the best of luck, but I personally feel that if Ridley is ever to become a playable character, the Ridley fans will have to do it themselves (namely have to create high quality playable version of Ridley themselves as a hack for either Brawl or Project M). However, considering much of the Ridley fanbase is still under the delusion that he is going to be some “super duper secret hidden character that Sakurai is trollingly hiding from us for the Wii U version”, I am not holding my breath that such a project will be able to get off the ground in the near future.

I truly feel bad for Ridley fans considering that they are going to face extraordinary challenges going forward. He really had no excuse not be included as a playable character this time around, and in addition there are going to be far more detractors going into Smash 5 and less supporters overall (due to demoralization). Hopefully, Project R will someday take root and become a reality. I will only attempt it when most Ridley fans have accepted Ridley is not happening for Smash 4 as a playable character (which at the very least won’t be until the beginning of 2015).

Its demoralizing to say that after 15 years that the one character I wanted the most never got in. However, that is life. I just hope to hear what Sakurai has to say about Ridley’s exclusion this time (though I am pessimistic about Sakurai opening up about Ridley).

However, regardless of the roster for Smash 4 excluding some choices I wanted to see (basically just Ridley, considering that Project M scratches my Mewtwo and Roy itch), I can say I have a sense of satisfaction at the end of it all. Although Smash 4’s roster is not definitive, combined with Project M (yay Mewtwo, Roy, Wolf, Lucas, Ice Climbers, Squirtle Ivysaur, Snake), I have a definitive Smash 4 experience.

I only plan to get the 3DS version of Smash 4. I do not own a Wii U nor do I plan to get one (nothing interests me on the horizon). A portable Smash Bros. is something that I have been dreaming about for a decade. As a matter of fact, back in 2004, I wrote a detailed document about a possible Smash Bros. DS.

Although Smash 4 3DS does not have all the bells and whistles that the Wii U version is likely to have, it is definitely is not a gimped version. It has only a bit less content than Brawl did. It has only seven less stages than Brawl, and eleven more characters than it, not to mention about a 100 more trophies. In terms of content its definitely leaps and bounds more than Melee. It is definitely a worthy experience for someone who wants to experience Smash 4, and satisfactory enough for a six year wait from the previous installment.

I think with Smash 4 3DS, I get to experience those 17 newcomers and a plethora of new items, stages, and Assist Trophies, on a graphical equivalent to Melee and Brawl, albeit being able to take the game and play it wherever I want. A portable Smash Bros. is a truly fresh experience for the franchise outside of simply “bigger and better”.

However, I still want a home console experience for Smash Bros. that improves over Brawl. Fortunately that is where Project M comes in. It brings back the fluidity and quickness of Melee, plenty of classic stages from Melee and Smash 64, as well as has EIGHT playable characters not featured in Smash 4 (with an additional five newcomers on the way). Not to mention the amazing selection of alternate costumes.

Between Smash 4 3DS and Project M I have the definitive Smash Bros. experience. The only thing missing from the sum of both of them is a playable Ridley unfortunately.

That brings me to what my plans are with the Smash Bros. community going forward now with the release of Smash 4 3DS. As I said for years, I am not going to stick around and do speculation for Smash 5 (I did just do a bit of preliminary speculation though, lol). I am satisfied with the rosters between Smash 4 and Project M (aside from a lack of Ridley) that I have nothing to look forward to really for a Smash 5, nor do I have the interest in the franchise (and video games in general) that I did years ago.

This chapter in my life is drawing to a close. I have been a fan of Smash Bros. since 1999, and an active member of the online community since 2001. It is a bit sad, but eventually there comes a time to move on. As I said earlier aside from Ridley, I have seen (almost) everything I wanted to see in Smash Bros. get added in, and what little there is left to add (aside from Ridley) has a decent chance of being added in a DLC for Smash 4 or in the last update to Project M (4.0).

It for this, that I may stick around one more year in the Smash Bros. community. The prospect of DLC for Smash 4 wrapping up in late 2015 as well as the release of Project M 4.0 might be enough to keep me around for another year.

If I do decide to stick around for another year there are three things I plan to do:

1. Project S (the mission to get Sami back into Project M).

2. Do an Ultimate Character Analysis for DLC for Smash 4

3. Help support some fanbases that have a pretty good chance at becoming DLC for Smash 4 (I am looking at you Mewtwo, Wolf, Dixie Kong, and Bandanna Dee).

Personally, I would like to help initiate Project R, however, I think a significant contingent of Ridley fans will believe Ridley is a prime candidate for DLC even with the defined role of being a boss in Smash 4 (I do not think any character that is a boss, part of the Final Smash, or an Assist Trophy is eligible to become a DLC character in Smash 4).

Hopefully Sakurai will elaborate some details about DLC within the first few months of 2015. I think there will probably be four characters as DLC for Smash 4 due to the four spare slots on the character selection screen. Those who are expecting more will be setting themselves up for a disappointment similar to those expecting more characters after the ESRB leak.


I am looking forward to the North American release of Smash 4 3DS. It is going to be fun trying to collect all the content once again, and is most likely going to be my favorite game for the Nintendo 3DS. From what I have played of the demo (with only five characters), it seems like a worthy successor to Brawl and very fun experience. Mega Man and Villager are very fun characters, and I look forward to trying out the other 15 newcomers. The new stages also look very fun, particularly the retro F-Zero stage, Magicant, and Balloon Fight.

Although Ridley was not added in as a newcomer (and things are looking bleak for him going forward), Smash 4 still has a newcomer roster with lots of starpower. The roster could have been a lot better sure (just the additions of Ridley and Mewtwo would have satisfied most people).

After Smash 4 3DS’s release, the next thing I am looking forward to Smash Bros. related is the release of Project M 3.5 (which is probably going to add 1-3 true newcomers, lots of new alternate costumes, and some returning or brand new stages). I will probably expand on my earlier thoughts, but I truly think Project M complements Smash 4 (especially those who will only be picking up the 3DS version).

In the coming weeks ahead, I hope to gather every single Sami fan on this site to help her get into Project M and give the Advance/Famicom Wars series the playable representation it absolutely deserves (Isaac is most likely going to be added into Project M, so he does not need the assistance that Sami is in desperate need of). There is also a bit of a tragic backstory in regards to Sami in relation to Project M (she was being planned but scrapped due to her model being leaked by an immature member of the team). Golden Sun and Advance/Famicom Wars are the two most popular and important Nintendo franchises still lacking a playable character after Smash 4’s release. Since characters from those series most likely won’t happen for Smash 5 (for a variety of reasons, especially for AW), Project M should scoop up these two franchises into their limited newcomer selection fold. It is going to be a very ardent struggle, but the importance will be strength in numbers. If I get plenty of Sami supporters on board (40-50) then we will most likely have her position on the Project M roster restored.

Outside of that, it really depends on how I feel whether I go ahead and do speculation in regards to Smash 4 DLC in the months ahead. It also really depends on the details regarding it (how many slots for one) and whether character DLC will even happen (I would be surprised if it does not). For the time being I don’t see an announcement for it until very close to the Wii U version’s release at the earliest. It may be months after release before we hear the first word of DLC (like was the case with Mario Kart 8).

So this ends an era. The journey is coming to an end. In my closing thoughts to the Brawl roster over six years ago, I mentioned that I was disappointed that Ridley did not get added in as well as with the cuts (particularly Mewtwo and Roy). The times change, but the ending does not. My main disappointment with Smash 4’s roster remains the same as was with Brawl’s (no Ridley and cuts). Hopefully the option of DLC will bring back some veterans for Smash 4.

I just hope someday the fans will make a playable Ridley a reality. I am not talking about those hacks in which people take Ridley’s Brawl boss model and awkwardly make it playable, but rather give him the same treatment as the Project M team did with Mewtwo and Roy (and their five planned newcomers), that is create an entirely new model for Ridley, and not have him replace any other character on Brawl’s roster.

There is a small chance Sakurai might have relented in the twilight of Smash 4’s development and is already drawing up plans for Ridley as a playable character for DLC despite him also being a boss. However, I think one of the Wii U’s versions gimmicks is going to be “controllable bosses”. Mainly someone with the Wii U gamepad will tap the screen about what actions they want the boss to perform. Sakurai will say, “look Ridley is finally playable. *laughs”

I has been a long and arduous six years. As I mentioned towards the end of my Brawl roster thoughts, I had been through a lot of trials and tribulations during these past six years as was during the six years between Melee and Brawl. However, life is always met with defeat and struggle. It what we learn from these events that help us build us into better and more interesting people. As I approach the epilogue for this part of my life (Smash Bros. speculation and fandom), I hope to have more things to look forward to, no doubt met with entirely new struggles and challenges.

In the end, thank you to all of those who actually decided to read all of this. I am thankful to every single one of my fellow Smash Bros. fans that enjoyed my insights and analysis over the last 13 years. It has been a honor. I look forward to enjoying Smash 4 as much as the rest of you, and possibly working with a lot of you in actually getting a character into Smash Bros. (Sami) as opposed to simply having fruitless shouting and text-wall matches.

We may not have gotten the roster many of us wanted, but no doubt we have gotten another worthy (no amazing) installment to this franchise. This may not be a good bye, but it is definitely getting to be time for curtain call. I look forward to seeing whether we get DLC for this latest installment and hopefully speculating as to who those characters will be. Project M will also be fun to look forward to (though speculation will be much more limited there).

Let’s all enjoy Super Smash Bros. 4.

Thanks again to everyone.
 
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Triblaze

Smash Apprentice
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Apr 13, 2014
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123
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Triblaze0
Aaaaaaand... I skimmed it. Good job though, very thorough.
 

Skyward

Smash Apprentice
Joined
Apr 27, 2014
Messages
158
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Agreed. Objectively the newcomers are good and make sense, it's just that in some cases they aren't the most popular pics and they came with sacrifices with popular characters.

I've already said this in the confessions thread, but my personal bit of dissatisfaction with the final roster stems from how suddenly the part I don't like was revealed. With the exception of Palutena I really like the pre-leak newcomers, and the ones I had worries on had accompanying material that eased my worries. The only big newcomer I wanted was Mewtwo, so the loss of characters like Ridley didn't affect me.
With the leak newcomers however I didn't like them.
We already have a good Mario newcomer and we don't need two more, especially one who is a clone!
That dog is a non-entity!
How is a literal reskin worthy of a slot?

It didn't help that we didn't know much about them. Yes Duck Hunt Dog is a non-entity, but so is the Wii Fit Trainer and I was won over by her. It does help that WFT had a trailer that instantly made her likeable, while all we got for DHD was half of his render. I will also admit that I am still in the dark about the leak characters. All I know about Bowser Jr right now is that he has Koopaling alts and he uses the Koopa Car in some way. I haven't even seen Shulk's reveal trailer! And of course, I lost my Brawl main Wolf for what I see as for little to no reason.

Despite this, I don't mind the roster for what it wants to do. While I think the losses are silly and I am still never getting over Dark Pit, I'm still looking forward to the game and will get it eventually. Just thought I'd share a reason I think why some people are unhappy with the roster.
 

Skyline1992

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I'll say this regarding Ridley: We can't make a full judgement on Sakurai until we find out exactly what when down with Ridley. While it seems obvious that Sakurai is a too bigot, it's entirely possible that there were other factors that contributed to Ridley's exclusion from the roster. For all we know, Sakurai might actually think Ridley can be playable, but when he pitched the idea to his development team/staff, they probably didn't approve of the idea because they have faulty beliefs. At that point, Sakurai would have to do everything in his power to proof otherwise. He may have convinced some, but the rest of them wouldn't budge. If you can't convince your development team/staff that he can be made playable, then the chances of seeing Ridley in a Nintendo-made Smash game playable is impossible since there's always going to be one person that disagrees and I doubt having a new Smash director would change anything. I'm not saying Sakurai isn't a too bigot, I'm just speculating on other explanations.
 
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DMurr

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Good read, ChronoBound.

I'm glad that you noted Lucina's popularity. As I've stated before, while I disagree with you that she had no viability outside of a Marth alt or clone, I do believe that it is her popularity that got her upgraded to a full character in this game. I'm not sure how I feel about having a clone of Marth that isn't Roy. (Roy in Melee is what got me into Fire Emblem in the first place.) Lucina is my current favorite Fire Emblem character though, so I am satisfied.

I am not disappointed with this roster in the same way I was not disappointed with Brawl's roster. It would be beautiful if somehow Isaac made DLC for Smash 4, but he seems pretty likely for Project M.

As always, you've got my support and whatever I can offer for Project S or R. :)
 

Ascended

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I do agree that when one takes the time to critically look at the Smash 4 Roster in the context of Nintendo's history during the time between Brawl and 4, the chosen newcomers make a lot of sense. I remember this happening back when Brawl's final roster was revealed, and while there is an initial disappointment that not all of my wanted characters made it in, it is still a great roster and since seven of the characters I wanted made it in, I can't be too upset.
 

κomıc

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I don't think Ice Climber's removal had much of anything to do with 3DS limitations when we have Rosalina and Luma. It also doesn't help when Smash Bros 3DS isn't the most technically impressive game on 3DS (that goes to Resident Evil Revelations and to an extent the Monster Hunter games). Also, Kid Icarus Uprising had waves upon waves of enemies at once with their own patterns and AI during a pivotal chapter in the game. It honestly felt like a test for the 3DS I vaguely recall Viridi even mentioning it as a joke or hint (because that game broke too many fourth walls).

Good evaluation otherwise.
 
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JavaCroc

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Thank you for writing all of this, Chronobound. I remember your great old posts you made way back in 2009-2010 in the old SSB4 speculation thread. I did read your whole analysis, and agree with all of your points. Really, this game has an impressive roster of unique characters, of which almost all of them are worthy of the title "Nintendo All-Star."

Yes, the cuts are frustrating, no additional DK characters (or any additional content) is confusing, Mewtwo's no-show can't be forgiven by any excuses, and Ridley's SSB future is bleak, I can see now. I am sorry that we will probably never have Ridley playable while under Sakurai's direction, except as a possibly playable boss on Wii U. We should never idolize Sakurai's final roster choices as they always leave something to be desired. But I am still very happy with most of his choices for the final playable SSB4 roster, and I look to be satisfied on the Wii U (I don't own a 3DS). I am happy that Sakurai still puts in as much time and effort as he does to make the Smash Bros. series so successful.

I have no background in any animation or graphic skills that could prove immensely helpful for a possible Project R, but if such a project coalesces, count me in as support. :)

Thank you for all of your Smash Bros. roster analysis, and your dedication to the Smash Bros. community. I wish you the best as you move from this stage of life into new and greater directions.
 
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Arcadenik

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@ ChronoBound ChronoBound Of all the Ridley supporters, you are the only one who have my sympathy. I'm sorry you didn't get Ridley. I know you have been supporting Ridley almost as long as I have been supporting Duck Hunt Dog. While I finally got my dog, I still don't have Toad... for me, he's the Ridley of the Mario series.

This is a good read. Very compelling and I can definitely understand why Sakurai made these roster choices. I ain't mad over the lack of Dixie and Toad anymore... they just gotta be in more (main) games with playable roles before SSB5 is announced... and they need to be differentiated from Diddy and the Mario Bros. respectively. I'll try to be more objective with SSB5 speculation beginning in about 3 years from now (or when Nintendo's next home console comes out).
 

victinivcreate1

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This was an incredible read. As one of the newer Smash debaters, I don't have much experience in doing this type of thing, however, I have not seen someone command such respect whenever he posts, and how thought out and well explained/reasoned they are.

I'm not sure if you'd even be interested in video games by 2018-2019 rolls around, but I predict Smash 5 Development will roll around then and perhaps Ridley will be confirmed (or ya know Sakurai could be a nice man and give us Ridley as free DLC).
 

ElPanandero

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Chrono, long time no see, You were always one of my favorite speculators from the days right after brawl (or was if for brawl, it feels so long ago) andyway you were one of the most unbiased posters then, and you're keeeping it up here, a great unbiased look at the roster, I agree completely but never could articulate it, I'll just send the whiners here, good work Chrono
 

Rhubarbo

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11396 words on word counter. Getting ready for your grad degree, there? Very nice post, btw.
 
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AustarusIV

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Hmmm...

I wouldn't count Ridley out completely just because he was a no-show for SSB4, but I think it all depends on the future of Metroid (and if he continues to make anymore appearances). If the Metroid series is cancelled in the near future because of lack of popularity or for some other reason, then I would be in the same boat with you.

I doubt there's going to be DLC though. And even if there was, and Mewtwo wasn't among those characters, then there's a good chance that he will never be made playable in Smash again.
 

Aeronite's Kiseki

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Read quite a bit and a couple things.....I think Alph should be on this list since the Koopalings are too.

Also, Greninja was chosen way before it's popularity happened....it was just sheer dumb luck that it turned out to be the most popular of its Generation
 

fuljak

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The fact that your entire greninja section was just wrong makes me not like this.

Edit: Greninja'd
 
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guedes the brawler

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i guarantee you Chrom would've been well received just like Shulk and Mac ended up being. And i still say WTF to Rosalina, being in 3 games of the main Mario series (which has over 20 game) is enough for smash, now? seeing her side-by-side with people like Pac man or Link is just ridiculous to me.

greninja was also a fail, because his game is already over. Sakurai should've went with ORAS advertisement.
 

Joeyd123

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It is a very good roster imo. The only real complaint that I have is Mewtwo not getting in and them adding Dr. Mario who is returning from Melee. I understand that he was much easier to add, but he is completely irrelevant now and thats coming from someone who liked him in melee. It just feels like Mewtwo is getting mocked by Nintendo by Dr. Mario returning.

I also think it is pretty ridiculous how DK can only have 2 reps when it is so popular.
 
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D

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Just read all of it. It is a very interesting read, even if I don't agree with everything in this analysis (mainly in regards to how characters were decided).

And ironically enough, I'm the opposite when it comes to deciding which game I'm getting. Personally I'm going to be holding off on a 3DS version for now due to the impending new 3DS console release (I don't have a 3DS) and I want to be able to finally get Xenoblade, so it won't be until 2015 when I get the 3DS version. I do intend on getting the Wii U version at launch though, it's always been the version I'm focused on and it's going to have more content than the 3DS version anyway (plus I did get a Wii U at Christmas time last year).
 

Arcadenik

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It is a very good roster imo. The only real complaint that I have is Mewtwo not getting in and them adding Dr. Mario who is returning from Melee. I understand that he was much easier to add, but he is completely irrelevant now and thats coming from someone who liked him in melee. It just feels like Mewtwo is getting mocked by Nintendo by Dr. Mario returning.

I also think it is pretty ridiculous how DK can only have 2 reps when it is so popular.
Dr. Mario is not irrelevant. Didn't you read ChronoBound's analysis? Did you miss this part?

the Dr. Mario sub-series actually saw a lot of activity during the interim between Brawl and Smash 4. The WiiWare installment, Dr. Mario Online Rx, was a launch title for the WiiWare service released only a few months after Brawl. Dr. Mario Online Rx proved to be incredibly successful being amongst the Top 5 highest selling games for the download service. Dr. Mario Express was also released as a DSiWare title in 2009, and similarly enjoyed success (though amongst the Top 15 best selling DSiWare titles). There was also Dr. Luigi released as a new title less than a year ago. Dr. Mario also serves to represent Nintendo’s most popular (and longest running) puzzle series franchise, and possibly Nintendo’s move into download only software. The success of Dr. Mario’s new download only titles and the amount of them (three) probably played a part in Sakurai believing Mario’s labcoat clad alterego merited a second chance in the Smash Bros. series.
 

Plain Yogurt

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Playable Sami
You have my wrench! I don't really know what I could really do, but you have my wrench! Be it Andy or Sami I need my Wars rep!

Oh, and very interesting analysis. I had no clue just how much NSMB Wii sold. It's two additional sequels don't seem QUITE as absurd now.
 

ChronoBound

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You have my wrench! I don't really know what I could really do, but you have my wrench! Be it Andy or Sami I need my Wars rep!
.
I just started Project S. In the end, it is all going to be all the various Sami supporters voicing their support to the Project M team to re-include her. It will be executed before Smash 4 3DS's Western launch, so we got around three weeks of preparation. I am going to try and get 50 Sami supporters signed up. Right now we are at only five though, though we only started yesterday. :laugh:

I sent you an invitation to join btw.

Anyone else that is interested in helping me with this endeavor or is simply a fan of Advance Wars feel free to PM or quote me about membership.

Remember the only thing that will be required of you once you become a member is that you voice your support for Sami's inclusion once I decide the designated day (which will probably be a few days prior to Smash 3DS's release in NA).

Here is a link, to our group:
http://smashboards.com/social-forums/project-s.1743/
 

ErenJager

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Very good analysis my favourite part was when snape killed dumbledoor and when they finally put the one ring into the volcano.
 

ChronoBound

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Read quite a bit and a couple things.....I think Alph should be on this list since the Koopalings are too.

Also, Greninja was chosen way before it's popularity happened....it was just sheer dumb luck that it turned out to be the most popular of its Generation
The Koopalings are a big deal for many, while Alph isn't. I kind of think that is part of the reason why Alph did not get promoted to his own slot like Lucina and Dark Pit did.

I also edited out words about Greninja's popularity.
 

Ryuutakeshi

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A very good read, but I feel I need to reiterate my point that Roy never had a chance to be in the core roster. I get the feeling that a lot of fans think that because a character is heavily requested they automatically have a chance of being playable. Obviously, this is not the case. Whatever popularity Roy had lives on only in the core smash fandom. The fire emblem fans and the general audience don't care about him. Even his schtick as a marth knockoff got taken by Lucina, the current popular Fire Emblem character (next to Robin). Maybe he'll be in as DLC, but I think, until then, it is finally time we let Roy rest in peace. I may have to do that with my mewtwo as well.

It is strange that Ridley is so far a no-show in smash and it is sad that not all of our requests were satisfied, but I think we should all be happy with what we did receive, and I'm glad this analysis went for the positive angle. Here's to a bright future for smash and possibly more surprises in the near future. Go Advance Wars!

But seriously, no Ridley at all?
 
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mario123007

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Alright... I don't know why I came back to this thread. I still have a hard time completely read through this thread. But here's a bit notices I want to put in this thread:

Bowser Jr was mentioned nearly being cut, damn it...
And Dr.Mario, Lucina, and Dark Pit were considered to be alt costumes.
For much of the pre-Smash 4 period, myself and most other speculators did not consider Rosalina to be a contender. She had a weaker resume than the likes of Toad, Paper Mario, and Bowser Jr. (and arguably Waluigi and Dr. Mario). Also, all the previously mentioned characters had a higher amount of requests than her.
Are you kidding me? Sakurai put Rosalina in Smash Bros first is a wise thing to do.

So @ ChronoBound ChronoBound , did you regret of not buying the Wii U version? I was going to reply to you that "It's not over yet... this is just the beginning", and heck, there a Smash bros ballot, so the roster will still expand, looking forward to your new analysis! Or should I say, are you still active?
 
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謹賀新年!
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Please don't bump threads that are over a month old since the last post.
 
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