Blog Theory - Predicting A Character Count + Documenting Blog Data

[PolarPanda]

Hey guys, I got interviewed by Gamexplain today about the theory. It's about 40~ mins long and will be uploaded most likely on wednesday or thursday. Keep your eyes out!

 

[zferolie]

Hey. That is because yesterday was a holiday in Japan worshipping the moon. The japanese blog post wasn't even posted on the smash site until around midnight japanese time. Today we can probably expect a fighter post instead.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tsukimi

Ah gotcha, and that explains it being the moon too haha.

I wonder who will we get.we barely have any KI information, I would like to know more about Palutena. but there are franchises they haven't talked about at all still...

 

[PolarPanda]

Ten minutes after i said it, lucina gets posted!!!
Lucina is post number 153. Looks like we're probably getting 3 fighters again.

 

[kendikong]

Can somebody make a graph showing blog fighter reveals?

EDIT: Nvm, I'll make one

 

[kevinthedot]

Can somebody make a graph showing blog fighter reveals?

EDIT: Nvm, I'll make one

You want JUST the fighters?

You want all the blog:

 

[kendikong]

OK, so this is what excel is showing me as the trendline

Looks like 78 fighter blog posts by Dec 7th which includes echos and counts PT and Mii Fighters as 1 blog post. We have 70 total known fighters including echos that will have their own blog post. Which means by Dec 7th there will be 8 more posts about fighters that have not been revealed yet. That is assuming that the last fighter post will be posted on Dec 7th.

If this is true, I could see there being 4 newcomers and 4 echo fighters: Isaac, Skull Kid, Bandana Waddle Dee, Incineroar, Ken (Ryu echo), Shadow (Sonic echo), Dixie Kong (Diddy echo), Impa (Shiek echo). I think Geno is making it in as the 2nd square rep, but probably as DLC.

 

[VexTheHex]

Music day tomorrow! I'm excited since if the music theory also holds true, we may have another series out of the running. My guess is it will be Starfox though, since it's pretty much a long shot it'd get anyone at all... let alone a unique newcomer.

Still not quite buying the blog theory in terms of newcomer rate, I'm waiting to see if like the Pokemon rep comes with a week of uncovered Pokeball Pokemon, Music, and Stage.

 

[Smashoperatingbuddy123]

Another character looking swell for us

I believe Thursday and Friday will be characters

 

[zferolie]

I think something that may test this will be on Saturday. I know thats not a normal day for updates... but its Minecon. And IF Steve is a thing in smash, or even a stage, its possible they will reveal it there and we will get an update on saturday

 

[Mastermiine]

I think something that may test this will be on Saturday. I know thats not a normal day for updates... but its Minecon. And IF Steve is a thing in smash, or even a stage, its possible they will reveal it there and we will get an update on saturday

Has a smash character ever been announced at a non-Nintendo event?

 

[TheCJBrine]

I think something that may test this will be on Saturday. I know thats not a normal day for updates... but its Minecon. And IF Steve is a thing in smash, or even a stage, its possible they will reveal it there and we will get an update on saturday

I think if he get's revealed Saturday, his update will be on Monday.

Isabelle's wasn't on the same day as the direct. However, his trailer may go up on the website, like Isabelle's did.

 

[Smashoperatingbuddy123]

Has a smash character ever been announced at a non-Nintendo event?

Does Robin and Lucina count there were revealed just on a random day

 

[Mastermiine]

Does Robin and Lucina count there were revealed just on a random day

But Nintendo had planned that and was officially still announced by Nintendo and not a 3rd party source.

Minecon is a 3rd party source. I am not saying it will not happen, but I am not holding my breath.

 

[TheCJBrine]

Maybe Minecraft stuff will be shown in the next Smash direct?

Or they just reveal it after the Minecon weekend.

 

[GoodGrief741]

Maybe there won’t be any Minecraft stuff.

 

[zferolie]

Yeah not saying there will be mincraft stuff, and the only thing i want is a stage, but i could see them.mayne announcing it at minecon as that would be a huge surprise and would get the attention of the mincraft fandom. Plus with how massive minecraft is it feels like they could do a special announcement for it there

 

[Mastermiine]

Also was there a leak besides verg that said more about the Minecraft stuff?

 

[Dibble]

Also was there a leak besides verg that said more about the Minecraft stuff?

General rule of thumb is unless a "leak" outright shows gameplay footage, it's fake. So far Vergenben is the only leaker who's been very accurate, unfortunately... I really hate smash bros leakers. However even then I wouldn't 100% trust his word. Text leaks are rumors as far as I'm concerned.

Also Pokémon theme's on the blog. I doubt we won't get a Gen 7 Pokédude, so in my opinion the music theory is kaput.

 

[zferolie]

hmmm, Sakurai said this recently

http://www.siliconera.com/2018/09/2...ltimate-character-announcements-to-slow-down/

could this hurt the 7-8 more fighters? It may hurt my 12 fighters prediction...

 

[Smashoperatingbuddy123]

hmmm, Sakurai said this recently

http://www.siliconera.com/2018/09/2...ltimate-character-announcements-to-slow-down/

could this hurt the 7-8 more fighters? It may hurt my 12 fighters prediction...

The rest just being put into a bigger box for the November direct

Doesn’t necesary deconfirm a reveal in October nor the theory

 

[zferolie]

The rest just being put into a bigger box for the November direct

Doesn’t necesary deconfirm a reveal in October nor the theory

Ah didn't think about it that way. I was expecting a smash direct on october and then a final one 2 weeks before launch, but I guess that may not happen

 

[Dibble]

hmmm, Sakurai said this recently

http://www.siliconera.com/2018/09/2...ltimate-character-announcements-to-slow-down/

could this hurt the 7-8 more fighters? It may hurt my 12 fighters prediction...

This doesn't quite hurt the blog theory directly, as Sakurai is talking about the pacing of newcomer reveals, and the blog theory doesn't predict when the missing character reveals will take place.
However, we've only got 2 months until release, so telling us the revealation rate will decrease starting soon is worrying.

 

[Diddy Kong]

You know, this thread gives some great debt and some new hope with all the negativity around that we should only expect Ken and Incineroar. I salute you all! Will be keeping an eye on this thread.

 

[VexTheHex]

hmmm, Sakurai said this recently

http://www.siliconera.com/2018/09/2...ltimate-character-announcements-to-slow-down/

could this hurt the 7-8 more fighters? It may hurt my 12 fighters prediction...

It does hurt it, you have to be putting on blinders to not see that. There is more evidence pointing towards less newcomers than more with this being the 3rd time Sakurai has indicated not that many more characters. I'm sorry, but people need to realize expecting another 8 characters is rather demanding for a game that has already brought us while also reviving and remaking . That's 9 newcomers and 6 revived Veterans that were cut. Now pair that with and others getting some work done on their moves and animations... and you got already a large character work load. But that's not all!!! We have Spirit Mode still up in the air as a possible Adventure/SSE baby.

I think 2-5 is the safest bet.

 

[thirsty-pocket]

hmmm, Sakurai said this recently

http://www.siliconera.com/2018/09/2...ltimate-character-announcements-to-slow-down/

could this hurt the 7-8 more fighters? It may hurt my 12 fighters prediction...

I was expecting the announcements to slow down closer to release. Sakurai said that we shouldn't expect too many newcomers in the first place, so I always felt like this blog theory was expecting a little too much.

 

[Smashoperatingbuddy123]

I was expecting the announcements to slow down closer to release. Sakurai said that we shouldn't expect too many newcomers in the first place, so I always felt like this blog theory was expecting a little too much.

The low end is technique 3 more if you exclude Vergeben’s character

The only reason that could happen is because of shadow the hedgehog and skull kid

 

[valkiriforce]

Video's been posted:

 

[PolarPanda]

I was expecting the announcements to slow down closer to release. Sakurai said that we shouldn't expect too many newcomers in the first place, so I always felt like this blog theory was expecting a little too much.

I want to add on to this. For those who have seen the spreadsheet would know, blog theory technically says that a minimum of 2 fighter IS possible, it would just require a slowdown. We argue that the slowdown won't happen, but we admit it's a possibility and have math to back that up. So yeah, box and blog could both happen and we just get 2. The 6-8 thing was just the most likely to us earlier, though I'll admit 4-6 is PROBABLY what we'll get. It's an incredibly fluid theory as others have mentioned. 2 bare minimum, 8 max. My guess is 6. Let's see what we get.

But, my comment on sakurai's comment is that he was talking about pacing out reveals, not necessarily the number of reveals remaining. But we'll see.

Video's been posted:

Also yes, the gamexplain video is up!!

 

[Ridrool64]

I'm thinking 4. Only one remaining truecomer seems incredibly pessimistic, but getting more than 8 truecomers total is where I think it's ridiculous. 2 and 2, or if we're lucky 3 and 1 true to Echo. Plus, only Snake and Ice Climbers could have taken that much work to implement, the other cut veterans can be based on other fighters (Wolf and Fox, Pichu and Pikachu, Young and Toon Links) which would make bringing them back faster than redoing them from the ground up.

If we see 6, it's 3 for 3. At that point I consider the roster done.

I'd only believe that we're getting 2 to 3 more characters total if Spirits Mode was a fully fledged SSE or above style story mode. Then I would highly doubt that we'd get many newcomers, because Brawl also had cuts and needed a delay for Sonic. Unless it's something that clearly took the lion's share of development time, then I believe 4-6, leaning 4.

 

[Smashoperatingbuddy123]

4-6 seems like the right range at this point of time

Unique
Incineroar
Geno
Skull kid or isaac
Steve or banjo (the other will be dlc)

Echo
Ken
Shadow the hedgehog

 

[PrinceGal3n]

How many characters are left to be posted on the blog now? I feel like we don't have many left at this point.

 

[RileyXY1]

How many characters are left to be posted on the blog now? I feel like we don't have many left at this point.

We only have 15 left:

Yoshi
Zelda
Mewtwo
Roy
Mr. Game & Watch
Meta Knight
Zero Suit Samus
Diddy Kong
Lucas
Olimar
Rosalina
Little Mac
Pac-Man
Robin
Bayonetta

 

[zferolie]

so with us getting 3 characters a week, that would leave us with 5 newcomers needed to keep that going right? ending with 77 characters seems like an odd number for a 4 player focused game. Makes me think we could see 3 weeks of maybe 4 characters, for a total of 8 newcomers?

 

[RileyXY1]

so with us getting 3 characters a week, that would leave us with 5 newcomers needed to keep that going right? ending with 77 characters seems like an odd number for a 4 player focused game. Makes me think we could see 3 weeks of maybe 4 characters, for a total of 8 newcomers?

Well, assuming that 3 fighters are covered this week, that will leave 12 veterans left to be shown on the blog. We would have to have weeks where four characters are shown off in order to have more than 6 newcomers left, assuming that there are no more weeks where 2 characters are covered. We would need 1 week of 4 characters to get 7 and 2 weeks to get 8.

 

[zferolie]

Well, assuming that 3 fighters are covered this week, that will leave 12 veterans left to be shown on the blog. We would have to have weeks where four characters are shown off in order to have more than 6 newcomers left, assuming that there are no more weeks where 2 characters are covered. We would need 1 week of 4 characters to get 7 and 2 weeks to get 8.

Seems plausible for sure,

 

[SonicMario]

so with us getting 3 characters a week, that would leave us with 5 newcomers needed to keep that going right? ending with 77 characters seems like an odd number for a 4 player focused game. Makes me think we could see 3 weeks of maybe 4 characters, for a total of 8 newcomers?

We just had two weeks in October where there were only 2. You're kind of grasping at straws for 8 more characters. (Unless you meant newcomers in terms of those including those we already know. Inkling, Ridley, Simon, K. Rool, and Isabelle make 5. And thus 2-3 more uniques is actually somewhat a fair expectation)

All uniques left will probably be put up on the day of the direct (Like Simon and K. Rool are). A minimum of just one more, and at maximum 3.
Echoes have their own day usually. So they'll take up to 1-3 days. Though we can't forget there's still a decent amount of non-character stuff to go like assists, items, and maybe even some stuff about Spirits once that's been fully revealed for blog posts.

 

[zferolie]

We just had two weeks in October where there were only 2. You're kind of grasping at straws for 8 more characters. (Unless you meant newcomers in terms of those including those we already know. Inkling, Ridley, Simon, K. Rool, and Isabelle make 5. And thus 2-3 more uniques is actually somewhat a fair expectation)

All uniques left will probably be put up on the day of the direct (Like Simon and K. Rool are). A minimum of just one more, and at maximum 3.
Echoes have their own day usually. So they'll take up to 1-3 days. Though we can't forget there's still a decent amount of non-character stuff to go like assists, items, and maybe even some stuff about Spirits once that's been fully revealed for blog posts.

We've gotten 2 weeks(maybe 3?) in a row of 3 characters a week, and this week started with a character yet again, making it look like we'll have 3 characters this week. If we just get 3 characters a week every week that would be 5 characters for the blog that haven't been announced yet. Its pheaeable to get more then that(8 is my wish, 6 seems more likely)

As for non character stuff, seems likely we will get posts on spirits mode and other things, but there are still room for those even with 3 slots for characters. so far we have been getting: 3 characters, 1 music, and 2 others, usally double posted that day, for 6 blog posts a week. could get more then that if needed too.

 

[Gerrothorax]

so with us getting 3 characters a week, that would leave us with 5 newcomers needed to keep that going right? ending with 77 characters seems like an odd number for a 4 player focused game. Makes me think we could see 3 weeks of maybe 4 characters, for a total of 8 newcomers?

Don't see how having an odd numbered of fighters matters at all.

 

[Smashoperatingbuddy123]

The new suposivly leak that could potential be the the ESRB leak 2.0 called the grinch leak

Could give us the win for this theory this theory suggests 6-8 more characters right?