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Blog Theory - Predicting A Character Count + Documenting Blog Data

SmashChu

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I just want to add I think you made the blog thing a little more complicated that it needs to be. You can do a simpler Calculation

70 Characters (counting Miis and PKMN Trainer as one)
27 Characters Left
34 updates left (11 weeks * 3 per week, adding one since we still have an update for Thursday night)
34-27 = 7 (8 if you include one day skipped as a result of the delay).

3 characters per weeks is from observation. See kevinthedot kevinthedot post. Still good that you made the post. Just point this out as it will be easier for people to follow though I get what you mean. By the by, I think the 2.9 is a result of using total reveals divided by weeks. It comes close but not exact since you're working with smaller numbers. It will get closer to 3 over time.
 

Smashoperatingbuddy123

Smash Legend
Joined
Jul 16, 2013
Messages
10,909
Guess what

It’s another character

Pikachu

So math activate

49/15 that equals 3.26 for the average

That 10 new if you do the math so to go back to the 6-8 range it would have to be 2 characters of the day next week so that's my prediction 2 characters next week

EDIT: forgot to round the number so it’s still at a solid 7 so if the trend continues it should be 3 again next week
 
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kevinthedot

Smash Apprentice
Joined
Sep 15, 2018
Messages
107
Guess what

It’s another character

Pikachu

So math activate

49/15 that equals 3.26 for the average

That 10 new if you do the math so to go back to the 6-8 range it would have to be 2 characters of the day next week so that's my prediction 2 characters next week
Uhh, bro, that's not how this works. We got 3 fighter posts this week. We're still at an average just below 3.
The number will only go to a solid 8 if we get a week in the future with 4 "Today's Fighter" posts.
 

Zoljinx_

Smash Apprentice
Joined
Jun 18, 2018
Messages
108
What are the Blog post numbers for Pikachu and it's memory? do they still line up with the missing posts?

I'd check myself, but i'm not savvy with digging through stuff like that.
 

kevinthedot

Smash Apprentice
Joined
Sep 15, 2018
Messages
107

Here's a full calendar of all the blog posts based on an image of the Today's Fighter posts an anon on /v/ made. You'll need to open it at full size to be able to read it properly.
If you guys can notice any important patterns or notes, feel free to discuss.

What are the Blog post numbers for Pikachu and it's memory? do they still line up with the missing posts?
150. We're officially back on track with the posts, having actually skipped one that was likely an item post. We may get it next week, but otherwise it seems they're prioritizing fighter posts, which further supports the theory.
 

PolarPanda

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Relaxalax told me he's uploading the video TOMORROW (saturday.)

Also, gamexplain is asking me for an interview on Monday. Today was post number 150 so I predicted another day right! that's another 3 day week. I'll be sure to talk about it in the video. Hope you look forward to it. Here is proof:
 

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GoodGrief741

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Sep 22, 2012
Messages
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Relaxalax told me he's uploading the video TOMORROW (saturday.)

Also, gamexplain is asking me for an interview on Monday. Today was post number 150 so I predicted another day right! that's another 3 day week. I'll be sure to talk about it in the video. Hope you look forward to it. Here is proof:
Good job! Ya getting famous for this.
 

PolarPanda

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Good job! Ya getting famous for this.
Yep, too bad we won't have another post till sunday (monday in japan). Wellll, that's almost guaranteed to be a fighter at least. Looking back, almost every single week has started with a fighter on monday. Which makes sense, since wednesday can't have a fighter, only leaving 4 weekdays to cover 3 whole fighters (most of the time). something to look forward to in that wait.

Oh yeah, and Alax said he's uploading very soon, probably in this next morning. That's hype.
 

Bobthealligator

Smash Ace
Joined
Sep 20, 2018
Messages
600
I think the best way to disprove a theory created by maths is with more maths. And since this theory was created to disprove the box theory I'll start there.
I decided to do a hypothesis test on your claims to see if the box theory could be correct without reducing the rate of character trailers.
X-B(55,7/11) 55 denotes the number of days left and 7/11 is the probability of a character trailer being on the blog that day.
From there I used a 5% level of significance to test this. (If the chance of there only being 2 newcomers is lower than 5%, then they would need to change the rate of character trailers)
H0: p[probability]= 7/11
H1: p < 7/11
Now the good news is that statistically speaking, we have not seen everything. The chance of there only being 28 character trailers left is 3.6% which is less than 5%.
But all values above this are possible (There is a maximum value I can't be bothered to work out). So all you've really proved is that there is at least one more newcomer (the chance of there being 29 trailers left is 6.3% and this is a binomial distribution so the odds of each increase) which we knew anyway because Sakurai will tell us when he's finished unveiling them.
 

Smashoperatingbuddy123

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Messages
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Uhh, bro, that's not how this works. We got 3 fighter posts this week. We're still at an average just below 3.
The number will only go to a solid 8 if we get a week in the future with 4 "Today's Fighter" posts.
Now it’s 3 x 11 which is 33 minus 26 which is still 7 yep your right miscalculations is probably what happened forgot to round

But you know what a 3 average is stuck regardless because correct me if I'm wrong but if we went 10 weeks with nothing but 2 characters a week that 69/25 its 2.7 rounded its 3
 
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DuckMeat

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Sep 21, 2018
Messages
20
Location
Netherlands
I think the best way to disprove a theory created by maths is with more maths. And since this theory was created to disprove the box theory I'll start there.
I decided to do a hypothesis test on your claims to see if the box theory could be correct without reducing the rate of character trailers.
X-B(55,7/11) 55 denotes the number of days left and 7/11 is the probability of a character trailer being on the blog that day.
From there I used a 5% level of significance to test this. (If the chance of there only being 2 newcomers is lower than 5%, then they would need to change the rate of character trailers)
H0: p[probability]= 7/11
H1: p < 7/11
Now the good news is that statistically speaking, we have not seen everything. The chance of there only being 28 character trailers left is 3.6% which is less than 5%.
But all values above this are possible (There is a maximum value I can't be bothered to work out). So all you've really proved is that there is at least one more newcomer (the chance of there being 29 trailers left is 6.3% and this is a binomial distribution so the odds of each increase) which we knew anyway because Sakurai will tell us when he's finished unveiling them.
Hi. I'm the moderator of the spreadsheet with the statistics for PolarPanda's Blog Theory Post. If you could send me your work, I would really appreciate it - I've been looking for new ways to analyze the blog, and I'd like to know your methods for a potential Calculation E. Don't really care if you send it to me here or in a dm. Just show me your work. Thx.
 

Zoljinx_

Smash Apprentice
Joined
Jun 18, 2018
Messages
108
RelaxAlax's video on this theory has been posted:
Just thought you all should know in case anyone was curious.
 

Smashoperatingbuddy123

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For one smoking gun

When October hits and end up with a Lucina/Robin esc reveal depending on how many unique(s) and echo(s) are shown 7 should change to what ever.
 

zferolie

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Jul 2, 2013
Messages
5,002
so we are saying we are ending on 80 selectable fighters right?(with wii fighters all their own, as with echos, and pokemon trainer as 1)? I feel thats a sloid number.

I still like 84 better as it makes Smashdown have a perfect number divisible by 2, 3, and 4, so you are forced to play with everyone in the mode, but I wouldn't be against 80...

With this theory is it possible we may actually get 84? or none at all unless they change things up a lot?
 

PolarPanda

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so we are saying we are ending on 80 selectable fighters right?(with wii fighters all their own, as with echos, and pokemon trainer as 1)? I feel thats a sloid number.

I still like 84 better as it makes Smashdown have a perfect number divisible by 2, 3, and 4, so you are forced to play with everyone in the mode, but I wouldn't be against 80...

With this theory is it possible we may actually get 84? or none at all unless they change things up a lot?
There's a calculation in the spreadsheet that covers this, The actual lowest remaining newcomers possible is 2, and that would mean the average number of posts every day would need to drop SHARPLY to below the current ~1.3 average. Check it out here:
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1sQJoJvxsYSaN80AFSfmLeym-7DsItbTMlAw9g_VLs-4/edit#gid=0
 

Smashoperatingbuddy123

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Bobthealligator

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Hi. I'm the moderator of the spreadsheet with the statistics for PolarPanda's Blog Theory Post. If you could send me your work, I would really appreciate it - I've been looking for new ways to analyze the blog, and I'd like to know your methods for a potential Calculation E. Don't really care if you send it to me here or in a dm. Just show me your work. Thx.
I started with the average number of newcomers a week (though I didn't use the slightly adjusted average, that took into account the number of trailers shown this week, though I should have done) and timesed it by the number of weeks remaining, as Polar Panda did. From there I divided the expected number of unshowcased fighters by the number of blog updates between now and release (I calculated 55, I may have made a mistake). I did round the expected value up to 35 to make my life easier. But I'm going to need to come back to how I used these to work out the odds of a character trailer on each individual day. I used a binomial distribution, which is a statistical method of working out the probability of an event occurring a certain number of times.
n=total number of trials (in this case 55 days)
p=the probability of an event occurring.
X-B(n,p) which I wrote in the initial workings (I did substitute in n and p) is the mathematical notation of a Binomial Distribution. One of the rules or effects of a Binomial Distribution is that np=E(x) meaning expected value which is 35. So 35 is equal to 55 times p and therefore p is 35 over 55, which simplifies to 7/11. So from here I needed to use a hypothesis test. This is a mathematical method that statisticians use to test if the probability of something occurring (or the rate of occurance) has changed. I chose to use this as the whole principle of the blog theory is that there cannot be less that 6 newcomers without the rate of character trailers being decreased, but this is incorrect. I have explained the level of significance above. I chose 5%, I could (maybe should) have chosen 1% but i went with 5%, granted choosing 1% would only allow the possibility of no new newcomers to be possible. Ho and H1 are uneccesary, in retrospect I should have ignored them. What I found was the critical region, which in this context is the highest number of newcomers that could not occur without a change in the average number of newcomers per week. The critical region is found by the highest whole number (Binomial only works with whole or discrete values) for which the probability of an event occurring less than this number of times is less than the level of significance. I will post the exact numbers tomorrow afternoon (British Time) as I don't have access to my equipment. I need a certain kind of scientific calculator to work it out which I don't have access to now. The formula for an event occurring an exact number of times (x) is:
P(X=x)=(nCx)(p to the power of x)((1-p)To the power of (n-x))
(C is a function that I work out with a calculator. I can work this one without but there is no reason to do this so I don't. I can't really explain what it means. If you want I'll post the formula tomorrow as well.)
Anyway to find the cumulative distribution I would need use this formula up to 34 times and total them which would take me days to do accurately, hence why i use this specific calculator which can do all these things instantly.
Hope I was of help. Let me know if I can do anything else.
 

PolarPanda

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Looks great

But if I may ask how is 1.3 average possible and what does that mean? As in characters per week or something else?
Posts per day, sorry. Remember, some days post song + music, so it brings up the total average of posts in general per day. Duckmeat's formula uses the average posts per day (the 1.3 value), and calculates the percent of total posts that are fighters. It uses the 1.3 posts per day to estimate the total remaining blog posts, and uses the percent of posts that are fighters to find the results. But as you can also see, he does some other formulas in it as well.
 

Smashoperatingbuddy123

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Messages
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Posts per day, sorry. Remember, some days post song + music, so it brings up the total average of posts in general per day. Duckmeat's formula uses the average posts per day (the 1.3 value), and calculates the percent of total posts that are fighters. It uses the 1.3 posts per day to estimate the total remaining blog posts, and uses the percent of posts that are fighters to find the results. But as you can also see, he does some other formulas in it as well.
1.3 is average posts per day across every day there's been a relevant blog post.
Thanks guys

Just posts in general yea with 5 days a week pretty much everyday the only acception is when the direct got delayed and could not show Isabelle yet
 

zferolie

Smash Hero
Joined
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Messages
5,002
There's a calculation in the spreadsheet that covers this, The actual lowest remaining newcomers possible is 2, and that would mean the average number of posts every day would need to drop SHARPLY to below the current ~1.3 average. Check it out here:
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1sQJoJvxsYSaN80AFSfmLeym-7DsItbTMlAw9g_VLs-4/edit#gid=0
Gotcha. So this also assumes w stop all updates on the 7th. I suppose we could have updates the week after if needed.

So I wasn't sure if there was a caluation place there, but if we were gonna get 84 characters, how much would the posts per day need to increase? thats just 4 but I assume the number would have to be an average of near 2 a day or something?
 

PolarPanda

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I started with the average number of newcomers a week (though I didn't use the slightly adjusted average, that took into account the number of trailers shown this week, though I should have done) and timesed it by the number of weeks remaining, as Polar Panda did. From there I divided the expected number of unshowcased fighters by the number of blog updates between now and release (I calculated 55, I may have made a mistake). I did round the expected value up to 35 to make my life easier. But I'm going to need to come back to how I used these to work out the odds of a character trailer on each individual day. I used a binomial distribution, which is a statistical method of working out the probability of an event occurring a certain number of times.
n=total number of trials (in this case 55 days)
p=the probability of an event occurring.
X-B(n,p) which I wrote in the initial workings (I did substitute in n and p) is the mathematical notation of a Binomial Distribution. One of the rules or effects of a Binomial Distribution is that np=E(x) meaning expected value which is 35. So 35 is equal to 55 times p and therefore p is 35 over 55, which simplifies to 7/11. So from here I needed to use a hypothesis test. This is a mathematical method that statisticians use to test if the probability of something occurring (or the rate of occurance) has changed. I chose to use this as the whole principle of the blog theory is that there cannot be less that 6 newcomers without the rate of character trailers being decreased, but this is incorrect. I have explained the level of significance above. I chose 5%, I could (maybe should) have chosen 1% but i went with 5%, granted choosing 1% would only allow the possibility of no new newcomers to be possible. Ho and H1 are uneccesary, in retrospect I should have ignored them. What I found was the critical region, which in this context is the highest number of newcomers that could not occur without a change in the average number of newcomers per week. The critical region is found by the highest whole number (Binomial only works with whole or discrete values) for which the probability of an event occurring less than this number of times is less than the level of significance. I will post the exact numbers tomorrow afternoon (British Time) as I don't have access to my equipment. I need a certain kind of scientific calculator to work it out which I don't have access to now. The formula for an event occurring an exact number of times (x) is:
P(X=x)=(nCx)(p to the power of x)((1-p)To the power of (n-x))
(C is a function that I work out with a calculator. I can work this one without but there is no reason to do this so I don't. I can't really explain what it means. If you want I'll post the formula tomorrow as well.)
Anyway to find the cumulative distribution I would need use this formula up to 34 times and total them which would take me days to do accurately, hence why i use this specific calculator which can do all these things instantly.
Hope I was of help. Let me know if I can do anything else.
Duckmeat actually already considered the possibility is 55 blog posts left if you look in the spreadsheet. However, it is calculation D because it's less likely. Blog posting right now is on average 1.3 posts per day. If we're trying to count the number of total posts remaining, we have to count the average per week, which as I said is 1.3. Therefore we get an estimate of 71.5 posts remaining. This will bring the odds of more newcomers even higher. We aren't saying concretely that there are more than 4 fighters remaining, just that it's more probable. I really do appreciate your input though. The thing I like about this theory is that it's fluid, it's not saying something too strict like "There's ONLY 1 fighter remaining", etc.
 

PolarPanda

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Gotcha. So this also assumes w stop all updates on the 7th. I suppose we could have updates the week after if needed.

So I wasn't sure if there was a caluation place there, but if we were gonna get 84 characters, how much would the posts per day need to increase? thats just 4 but I assume the number would have to be an average of near 2 a day or something?
84 is a nice number. In order to hit 84, we would need 3 weeks with 5 fighters posted (1 each day of the week). Right now, to get 8 more we'd need two weeks with 4 fighters already (it could be mixed up, i'm just using this as an example of how the pace would need to increase). So 4 more on top of that would need either the final 6 weeks to have 4 fighters per week, or 3 weeks with 5 fighters. It's a possibility, just not _as_ likely. I'd enjoy it though!
 

zferolie

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84 is a nice number. In order to hit 84, we would need 3 weeks with 5 fighters posted (1 each day of the week). Right now, to get 8 more we'd need two weeks with 4 fighters already (it could be mixed up, i'm just using this as an example of how the pace would need to increase). So 4 more on top of that would need either the final 6 weeks to have 4 fighters per week, or 3 weeks with 5 fighters. It's a possibility, just not _as_ likely. I'd enjoy it though!
Gotcha. Thanks for the numbers. I just like 84 as it seems like a fitting number for a lot of the stuff for the game. Smash down, even number

Seems possible in the least. I was thinking maybe the week of or week after the smash direct focusing on the modes of the game(like story and other ones, probably mid october) we could maybe get 5 in that week depending on how many get revealed. And then maybe the final smash direct is 2 weeks before launch, covering the online mode, any final stuff, and DLC plan, and then get the last 10 characters onto the blog then

COuld happen, bit of a pipe dream.
 

Bobthealligator

Smash Ace
Joined
Sep 20, 2018
Messages
600
Duckmeat actually already considered the possibility is 55 blog posts left if you look in the spreadsheet. However, it is calculation D because it's less likely. Blog posting right now is on average 1.3 posts per day. If we're trying to count the number of total posts remaining, we have to count the average per week, which as I said is 1.3. Therefore we get an estimate of 71.5 posts remaining. This will bring the odds of more newcomers even higher. We aren't saying concretely that there are more than 4 fighters remaining, just that it's more probable. I really do appreciate your input though. The thing I like about this theory is that it's fluid, it's not saying something too strict like "There's ONLY 1 fighter remaining", etc.
Only because it's the mean. Your theory is too fluid and therefore means nothing, the only thing you have proved that there is at least one newcomer we don't know about and less than, I'm assuming 10 newcomers less, but I haven't checked yet so I'll say for sure. And whatever the upper bound is it is too high for any plausible predictions to fall outside it.
 

PolarPanda

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Gotcha. Thanks for the numbers. I just like 84 as it seems like a fitting number for a lot of the stuff for the game. Smash down, even number

Seems possible in the least. I was thinking maybe the week of or week after the smash direct focusing on the modes of the game(like story and other ones, probably mid october) we could maybe get 5 in that week depending on how many get revealed. And then maybe the final smash direct is 2 weeks before launch, covering the online mode, any final stuff, and DLC plan, and then get the last 10 characters onto the blog then

COuld happen, bit of a pipe dream.
Pipe dreams are great, sometimes our expectations actually get met. And if you genuinely want that amount, I'm sure we'd get it through DLC regardless.
 

PolarPanda

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Thanks guys

Just posts in general yea with 5 days a week pretty much everyday the only acception is when the direct got delayed and could not show Isabelle yet
The delay messing up the order of the posts is one of the most concrete pieces of evidence that this blog is methodical. I'm really interested to see what we will get. Within 4-5 weeks I think we'll know for sure.
 

SmashChu

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I started with the average number of newcomers a week (though I didn't use the slightly adjusted average, that took into account the number of trailers shown this week, though I should have done) and timesed it by the number of weeks remaining, as Polar Panda did. From there I divided the expected number of unshowcased fighters by the number of blog updates between now and release (I calculated 55, I may have made a mistake). I did round the expected value up to 35 to make my life easier. But I'm going to need to come back to how I used these to work out the odds of a character trailer on each individual day. I used a binomial distribution, which is a statistical method of working out the probability of an event occurring a certain number of times.
n=total number of trials (in this case 55 days)
p=the probability of an event occurring.
X-B(n,p) which I wrote in the initial workings (I did substitute in n and p) is the mathematical notation of a Binomial Distribution. One of the rules or effects of a Binomial Distribution is that np=E(x) meaning expected value which is 35. So 35 is equal to 55 times p and therefore p is 35 over 55, which simplifies to 7/11. So from here I needed to use a hypothesis test. This is a mathematical method that statisticians use to test if the probability of something occurring (or the rate of occurance) has changed. I chose to use this as the whole principle of the blog theory is that there cannot be less that 6 newcomers without the rate of character trailers being decreased, but this is incorrect. I have explained the level of significance above. I chose 5%, I could (maybe should) have chosen 1% but i went with 5%, granted choosing 1% would only allow the possibility of no new newcomers to be possible. Ho and H1 are uneccesary, in retrospect I should have ignored them. What I found was the critical region, which in this context is the highest number of newcomers that could not occur without a change in the average number of newcomers per week. The critical region is found by the highest whole number (Binomial only works with whole or discrete values) for which the probability of an event occurring less than this number of times is less than the level of significance. I will post the exact numbers tomorrow afternoon (British Time) as I don't have access to my equipment. I need a certain kind of scientific calculator to work it out which I don't have access to now. The formula for an event occurring an exact number of times (x) is:
P(X=x)=(nCx)(p to the power of x)((1-p)To the power of (n-x))
(C is a function that I work out with a calculator. I can work this one without but there is no reason to do this so I don't. I can't really explain what it means. If you want I'll post the formula tomorrow as well.)
Anyway to find the cumulative distribution I would need use this formula up to 34 times and total them which would take me days to do accurately, hence why i use this specific calculator which can do all these things instantly.
Hope I was of help. Let me know if I can do anything else.
Still looking over it, but I think one issue in your assumption is that the rate of new characters will stay constant. The blog theory right now says there will be 7 more characters and we only have 55 days left. This means the theory assumes that the rate of newcomers will increase. This is true if you look at the last Smash game too. For Smash Wii U/3DS, there were only 4 characters revealed in 2013. Starting in 2014, it was about two characters a month with Little Mac and Greninja in February and April, then 3 more in June (Mii Fighters, Palutena and PAC-MAN), Robin in July and Shulk in late August. Its not to crazy to think we could get 1-2 per month as its one per month now.
 

TheCJBrine

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Hello, internet.

Welcome to Blog Theory

The theory that doesn't cause your fellow character supporters to jump ship!

This is a very good theory and I hope it's real, though we might get a bit less than 7-8 more.
 
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VexTheHex

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Mar 30, 2018
Messages
567
Hello, internet.

Welcome to Blog Theory

The theory that doesn't cause your fellow character supporters to jump ship!

This is a very good theory and I hope it's real, though we might get a bit less than 7-8 more.
Ya, I still don't see 7-8 more being likely even with this blog stuff.

Newcomers - Unique - :ultinkling::ultkrool::ultridley::ultsimon:
Semiclone - :ultisabelle:
Echo - :ultrichter::ultdaisy::ultchrom::ultdarksamus:

There's 9.

But Also...
Revived - Unique - :squirtle::ultsnake::ivysaur:
Semiclone - :ultwolf::ultpichu:
Basically a Echo - :ultyounglink:

There's 6.

A total of 16 characters built for this. 7 Uniques, 3 Semiclones, and 5 Echoes. Sakurai said not to expect a whole lot and then said he only had a few more to showcase BEFORE he revealed King K Rool and Isabelle. No matter the leak or theory, people need to tame their expectations!
 
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Delzethin

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Delzethin
You know, I gotta say, it's really impressive how much work you're putting into this. Especially with all the statistical equations you're using!

While I have a sinking feeling that your reputation will get dragged through the mud if you're wrong despite this just being a theory, you should be commended for everything you've done. Hopefully you're onto something.
 

Fane

Smash Journeyman
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Mar 20, 2018
Messages
355
If 7 are truly left I'm guessing 4 unique, 3 echoes.

But the number combo could be any combination really.

My prediction would be:

Echoes:
-Ken
-Dixie Kong
-Shadow

Unique:
-Geno
-Incineroar
-Steve *sigh*
-Isaac/Bandana Dee/Skull Kid
 

PolarPanda

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Still looking over it, but I think one issue in your assumption is that the rate of new characters will stay constant. The blog theory right now says there will be 7 more characters and we only have 55 days left. This means the theory assumes that the rate of newcomers will increase. This is true if you look at the last Smash game too. For Smash Wii U/3DS, there were only 4 characters revealed in 2013. Starting in 2014, it was about two characters a month with Little Mac and Greninja in February and April, then 3 more in June (Mii Fighters, Palutena and PAC-MAN), Robin in July and Shulk in late August. Its not to crazy to think we could get 1-2 per month as its one per month now.
I would also like to point out his final message kinda sealed the deal for me. The point of the theory is that it's fluid, that's the point. The entire premise is that the blog will stay at about its same rate. 3 fighters per week, 26 already confirmed characters not posted, 11 weeks left. 3 * 11 = 33. 33 - 26 = 7. Additionally, as you probably seen in the spreadsheet calculations, we accounted for remaining post numbers. So far, the average number of posts per day is 1.3~, wednesdays always having two posts, sometimes other weekdays as well. By this logic, if he's calculating by the number of posts remaining, he should use a number greater than 55 anyway.

As I already pointed out, there are many logical reasons to believe the blog will end on release, particularly from the blog's .JSON. Bob was pointing out how there's a chance that there's only 2 remaining, but I already knew that. It's just looking more realistic that the pace will stay relatively consistent so at MINIMUM 4-8 is much more likely. Also, check your messages if you want to contribute, the offer is still up :)
 
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zferolie

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Did we not get a monday update this week? I know NA just hit monday but Japan has been Monday for a while and if I recall they do update the sight on sunday night here...
 

PolarPanda

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It didn’t update yet

But on the other countries of the site

It’s the moon
Really? I checked Japan just now and it was just Pikachu.

EDIT: Oh, its only on the smash twitter, not the smash site blog itself. thats strange
Hey. That is because yesterday was a holiday in Japan worshipping the moon. The japanese blog post wasn't even posted on the smash site until around midnight japanese time. Today we can probably expect a fighter post instead.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tsukimi
 
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