Blog Theory - Predicting A Character Count + Documenting Blog Data

[PolarPanda]

So, I'll try to introduce myself before introducing this concept to this forum. I'm a moderator of a somewhat large smash speculation server, and used to be friends with loz18 before he got ostracized for being a fake and deleted his twitter. Introductions aside, let me begin.
Since our server mostly covers leaks and speculation, there was an interesting topic brought up:
Could the smash blog hold some weight in determining what's left?
Well, I (and a few others) took the opportunity to create a google doc that documents every blog post, the number of fighters, items, and stages shown in each week, the blog post numbers associated with each post, and much, much more. The goal is to create some calculations to 'estimate' what is unrevealed. Smash 4 miiverse posts went, for the most part, somewhat consistent up until release. And, for the past 14 weeks, I have calculated some consistencies in the current Smash blog as well. Such as that, despite 2 weeks having 4 fighters, and 3 weeks (2, but 3 due to the delayed direct-week), there is still an average of 2.9 fighters per week.

Of course, this theory has to take into account the fact that the blog can drastically slowdown near release date and completely change it up. This is a possibility, but there is also the possibility that history will repeat itself and that this game's smash blog will be consistent in what content it posts. Assuming that this scenario is a possibility, I've done some calculations for you:

Average number of characters per week:
N = number of characters revealed, T = number of weeks in total. N = 41 currently, T = 14 currently. Average = N/T. Therefore:

41/14 = 2.928. Therefore, the average number of characters per week is 2.9
Number of characters that would be covered by release, using the average:
Variables used with be the average, which is 2.9, the number of already known characters left, 28, and the number of weeks left, which is 12 full weeks of blogs (-1 since Isabelle has been shown as the first post this week). The formula is 2.9 x 12, then subtract 29 (28 + 1 for Isabelle) to calculate the total unrevealed newcomers. Therefore:

2.9 x 12 = 34.8 or 35. 35 - 29 = 6 unrevealed newcomers. By simply rounding up the average to 3 characters per week, our solution becomes: 3 x 12 = 36 - 29 = 7.

TL;DR of the calculations is that the average number of characters posted per week is 2.9. 2.9 characters per week for the remaining 12 weeks leave 6-8 unrevealed characters remaining. 8 characters remaining would bring the roster count up to 80 on the official website and would reach a landmark number.

Here is the full document:

https://docs.google.com/document/d/1r_eu-Y5ipUCEusPAbCr85doVJmuhJFn1fbBETi7NN2I/edit#



The document includes:

-The blog schedule including the dates, the content and the post numbers

-The statistics associated

-The calculations such as rate of characters per week, likely remaining characters

-A catalog of all blog post numbers and the missing ones

 

[GoodGrief741]

Here’s hoping you’re right. 8 seems utopic at this point, but 6 seems like the sweetspot between possible and amazing.

 

[PolarPanda]

Here’s hoping you’re right. 8 seems utopic at this point, but 6 seems like the sweetspot between possible and amazing.

This was inspired a bit by the box theory, but more-of a counter. The reasoning was something like...
"If a placeholder box leaving two spaces left means there are only two left, how many fighters would the blog leave left to be revealed if it kept its current pace?"

8 Is just to reach the 80 milestone, but yeah 4-6 more sounds the most realistic.

 

[GoodGrief741]

We could definitely use a counter-box theory. If people are going to believe implausible theories, it might as well be optimistic ones.

 

[Nazyrus]

We could definitely use a counter-box theory. If people are going to believe implausible theories, it might as well be optimistic ones.

this one at least has real evidence when it comes to the pattern the blog has been following and such. Box has barely any evidence to back it up considering it's… well… a DAMN placeholder with just one side view, and nothing else lol

 

[MrRoidley]

This is actually more plausible than the box theory lol

but yeah I agree. I feel 7 characters are left (3 unique + 4 echoes), which in the end, would total 8 unique and 8 echoes

 

[Izanagi97]

this one at least has real evidence when it comes to the pattern the blog has been following and such. Box has barely any evidence to back it up considering it's… well… a DAMN placeholder with just one side view, and nothing else lol

Not to mention that, as mentioned in some other places, if Xander Mobus (who directly works on one of the aspects of the game) doesn't know what the final tally is, why would someone contracted to make box art know it.

 

[Jomosensual]

I could see this. Believe I predicted 6 more fighters/Echos so 2 more wouldn't be unbelievable for me

 

[Rayleigh]

If true, this would put the total newcomer count (including echos) between fifteen and seventeen.

Which is not in the least a bad number, when you consider that Twenty-One (if you count each mii fighter separate) newcomers joined in Smash Four in total, and I do believe Sakurai stated in an early video that there would be less newcomers this time around (due to ALL characters returning)...at launch I would assume. DLC is a whole 'nother story.

--------

In simple numbers. You get these numbers for the Newcomers.

Smash Four (Base): 17 (15, combining all Mii Fighters)
Smash Four (+DLC): 25 (23, combining all Mii Fighters)
Smash Ultimate (So Far): Nine
Smash Ultimate (Box Theory): Eleven
Smash Ultimate (Blog Theory): Fifteen to Seventeen.

So if there will be less newcomers in Smash Ultimate's base roster than Smash Four's newcomer count...does this corrolate to Smash Four's base newcomer count, or to its total count post DLC? Something to ponder.

 

[VexTheHex]

Hate to burst bubbles, but I'm pretty sure the blog will have more info on Online and Spirit Mode as updates. I see both of these taking over after the characters are finished off, which is probably going to happen sooner rather than later since only a couple months to go and Sakurai made a point he was going to reveal them all soon/before release. He's avoiding the cast being dropped in leaks with literal evidence and the chance of that will sky rocket closer to December.

 

[thirsty-pocket]

I dunno about that. Like you said, they could just slow down the rate characters are revealed in the last few weeks or start covering other things in the game. It seems to be based on assumption that a pattern is going to hold until launch day.

But I really hope this is the case, but i'm not going to put a lot of stock into it. I'll chose to expect the worst and be pleasantly surprised when the best happens.

 

[KingZing]

Consider this:

- 8 characters from Smash 64 as base roster.
- 8/8/18 Direct.
- 108 stages according to corocoro.
- As MrRoidley said, 3 more unique and 4 echoes, so 8 newcomers and 8 echoes in total.
- 80 characters.

Perfect, simply perfect. I want to believe!

 

[PolarPanda]

Hate to burst bubbles, but I'm pretty sure the blog will have more info on Online and Spirit Mode as updates. I see both of these taking over after the characters are finished off, which is probably going to happen sooner rather than later since only a couple months to go and Sakurai made a point he was going to reveal them all soon/before release. He's avoiding the cast being dropped in leaks with literal evidence and the chance of that will sky rocket closer to December.

The blog's .JSON does mention site updates and whatnot as post numbers, but the rate of fighters per week is, if anything, calculated to be reaching EVEN MORE of a singularity as the weeks go on. Site updates and even direct links were mentioned in the .JSON as blog post numbers for whatever reason, but the character rate has been unchanged. In fact, Characters, Items, stages and music have each had their own rate be nearly consistent. Smashdown and Squad strike did not receive blog posts. However, if modes suddenly started getting blog posts later on, they would likely be segregated from other content posts such as fighters. It's not really that the blog limits the number of posts (there is an estimated ~1.3 posts per day as of now without modes), but rather that there is a rate of how much of a specific content is posted per week. Such as the ~2.92 (just about hitting 3 again after the delay, now) fighters per week.

 

[PolarPanda]

I would also like to conduct a rebuttal for the argument "Posts could be slowed down." As you may notice, my initial post did consider this possibility. It is still a possibility, but I would like to bring up a point as to why I think it's slightly more likely that the blog will continue at its same pace. Here are my reasons:

-The blog's rate of posts has actually been increasingly consistent as time goes on. Over the past 15 weeks, the blog has been approaching singularity-of-content faster than at the start. This week alone is bringing the average fighters, items, and stages closer in average-per-week.

-The delay caused the blog's schedule to become completely wonky. If the schedule wasn't as methodical as it's looking to be, the blog could have just skipped isabelle and went to post number 138, 139, etc. after her delay and then went back to her. However, the blog jumped to 142, then back to 138. If anything, this proves that the blog is purposefully trying to meet 3 characters per week and fit some sort of meticulous pattern.

If Sakurai was as methodical about this as it seems, he could have slowed down the pace already by now instead of suddenly spiking the posts down at the very end. The post rate is looking more and more planned and precise, so I believe a sudden decrease is looking less planned. It could still go either way, but I believe this is a fair counter-point.

 

[Zoljinx_]

I like this theory, and i'm hoping it pans out to be true (with at least one of my most wanted characters in there).

I feel like modes are something that won't be touched in the blog posts, and they'll simply have their section on the website added like the other modes were. and if they felt the need to talk more about it, it'd probably be used as filler for a direct.

 

[PolarPanda]

Looks like gamexplain and relaxalax might be covering this theory! Gamexplain just tweeted about it, and Alax posted about it in discord.

 

[Izanagi97]

Now to wait for the video. Also, saw someone make a compilation of the various theories in a reddit thread: the box theory, blog theory (this one), the bethesda theory, the Dante theory, and the music theory.

 

[Smashoperatingbuddy123]

Very nice theory much better than the box theory math and science is so much better for predicting

And you know what that lines up with the remaining characters on my prediction roster

Unique

Unique

Incineroar
Skull kid
Isaac or bandana dee
Geno

Echos
Ken
Shadow the hedgehog
Dixie kong (I promise I would rather have her unique like isabelle)
black knight

 

[kevinthedot]

I'm super glad this theory is gaining more traction. I'm still hoping it's right.
But I gotta admit, I'm a bit upset for a very selfish reason. Not to be that guy, but I've been posting the exact same stuff on 4chan and Reddit since last month after the 8/8 direct and have generally gotten mostly negative responses in the past. Seeing this post basically saying the same stuff I've been saying but just in a better format that is actually going over well within the community both makes me glad that the theory I had been supporting is getting noticed, and oddly unsatisfied that I got so much naysaying for it when I would bring it up a month ago.

Still, you did go much more in depth on the aspects than I did. I tried to make my posts shorter and more to the point while doing it more frequently. Quality over quantity I suppose.

 

[Izanagi97]

Welp, blog update today: Got a remix from Happy Home Designer (AC music). Kind of an oddball remix but whatever

 

[thirsty-pocket]

That explains why I don't recognize it. I kind of like oddball picks though, Smash is a celebration of Nintendo History, so it stands to reason that there should be songs from spinoffs too. Peresonally, I hope there is a sick remix of the NES Classic Edition main menu.

 

[Smashoperatingbuddy123]

Welp, blog update today: Got a remix from Happy Home Designer (AC music). Kind of an oddball remix but whatever

That’s another point for the music theory

Explamation

Geno is from Mario and second mushroom so no remix of Mario rpg To found there’s been next to barely any new Mario songs shown off so far

 

[Dibble]

This has way more going for it than the box theory. After all this time the blog's pattern is still fairly consistent and there's no real reason for it to change either. I doubt the reveal of the mystery mode will affect the blog in any way; the blog only covers content already revealed in previous directs, and the new modes Smashdown and Squad Strike have been relegated to the game modes menu on the site, not the blog.

Hopefully this can knock a bit of sense into the theorists. The box theory has been doing nothing but ruin the fun of speculation, one of my favourite aspects of pre-release Smash Bros. I know there are people saying only good things come from having low expectations, but it really does dampen the mood of the entire community.

 

[VexTheHex]

This has way more going for it than the box theory. After all this time the blog's pattern is still fairly consistent and there's no real reason for it to change either. I doubt the reveal of the mystery mode will affect the blog in any way; the blog only covers content already revealed in previous directs, and the new modes Smashdown and Squad Strike have been relegated to the game modes menu on the site, not the blog.

Hopefully this can knock a bit of sense into the theorists. The box theory has been doing nothing but ruin the fun of speculation, one of my favourite aspects of pre-release Smash Bros. I know there are people saying only good things come from having low expectations, but it really does dampen the mood of the entire community.

It's a good thing though. People are getting too hopeful that everyone's favorites will make it in and cause their character thread echo chamber saying their character is the more deserving and popular means their favorite is next in line. I mean if you connect the dots between the hairs and the tweets and the box and the music and Sakurai's cat's leaks, and that one picture you got the whole picture indicating their favorite is in and it will be a tragedy and insult at this point if he/she isn't in! Obviously any theories promoting their character is clearly valid, but anything that contradicts their character is obviously a lie.

The sheer amount of negativity towards Isabelle and the "roster is nearly ended" theories just showcase people are taking things for granted. Sakurai told us not to expect a lot, and here we got people fighting tooth and nail that there is surely like 6-8 more newcomers!!! People need to lessen their expectations.

People just really need a reality check. Waluigi had huge demand and a huge fan base. Seeing him fall yet again should of reminded people that many fan favorites won't make it in. Let's also not forget Krystal, Lyn, Bomberman, and Takamaru that fell early on as well. Instead they all hide behind that if their favorite was going to be not get in, it should of been revealed at the start like Waluigi in that case! Ugh, Ashley and Mimikyu ring any bells? Captain Toad? They fell later on and both had huge fan bases overall with Mimikyu being one of the break out Pokemon of Gen 7. We're going to get more deconfirmations. And some people aren't going to be happy.

Too bad, too sad. It's going to happen either way whether the box theory is true or false cause people are expecting the moon and sun and everything in between. I'm leaning towards 2-6 newcomers with the more likely being 3-5 as I feel someone big like Geno could have a large picture on the back of the box. I'm also uncertain he'll count as a Mario character (being a odd 3rd party one) and could have his own symbol keeping the music theory true.

Dixie, Isaac, Skull Kid, Shantae, Bandana Dee, Medusa, Black Shadow, Gardevoir, and several others are only looking more and more unlikely. And let's be honest, bigger names already fell... they can as well.

 

[TeenGirlSquad]

Three uniques and three echos would make sense.

One unique and maybe an echo in October, and two uniques and two or three echos in the November Smash direct.

 

[Rayleigh]

Coming back to this thread, something also to think of is that we have that one 'knock-out' mode for up-to four players. The one where every character can only be used once throughout the session (EX. On person is Mario, so no one can be mario from thereon out). As a four player match, this would mean that the currently known character count of Seventy-Four, which is not divisible by four, does not match the game mode. Conversely, the base roster of eight (and the original 12 by extension) likewise are divisible by four and would fit. If the box theory is true, and this observation is true, and we are to receive only two more-to-come characters...that brings us to Seventy-Six characters, Which would be divisible by four. Likewise, odd numbers theories on roster size would not fit into this concept.

If we take all of this, and combine it with the Blog Theory, we have a roster size between 80-82. Only the lowest count of upcoming newcomers, six, brings us to a number that is divisible by four: Eighty. But if the number is Eighty, this means the newcomer count is Fifteen, which by my prior count, would be equal to the base newcomer count of Smash Four...which may or may not align with Sakurai's comments on 'Less newcomers this time around' (when thinking about Total newcomer count versus base newcomer count...all while considering the Mii Fighters to be a single character versus individuals).

Of course, as we do not know the intimate details of this mode, such as the possibility of two or more people selecting the same character in a match and, likewise, accommodating for an unlocked roster count that is not divisible by four), there are holes in this boat of thought. Still...something else to ponder.

 

[PolarPanda]

Coming back to this thread, something also to think of is that we have that one 'knock-out' mode for up-to four players. The one where every character can only be used once throughout the session (EX. On person is Mario, so no one can be mario from thereon out). As a four player match, this would mean that the currently known character count of Seventy-Four, which is not divisible by four, does not match the game mode. Conversely, the base roster of eight (and the original 12 by extension) likewise are divisible by four and would fit. If the box theory is true, and this observation is true, and we are to receive only two more-to-come characters...that brings us to Seventy-Six characters, Which would be divisible by four. Likewise, odd numbers theories on roster size would not fit into this concept.

If we take all of this, and combine it with the Blog Theory, we have a roster size between 80-82. Only the lowest count of upcoming newcomers, six, brings us to a number that is divisible by four: Eighty. But if the number is Eighty, this means the newcomer count is Fifteen, which by my prior count, would be equal to the base newcomer count of Smash Four...which may or may not align with Sakurai's comments on 'Less newcomers this time around' (when thinking about Total newcomer count versus base newcomer count...all while considering the Mii Fighters to be a single character versus individuals).

Of course, as we do not know the intimate details of this mode, such as the possibility of two or more people selecting the same character in a match and, likewise, accommodating for an unlocked roster count that is not divisible by four), there are holes in this boat of thought. Still...something else to ponder.

Hey, since you gave some more inputs, I figured I'd provide another response. This may be helpful to others, too.

Before I tell you what I found, I'll give you a little comment on what you said about the count specifically. I'm going by the fighter count on the 'About' section of the website, which currently says 72 (since Pkmn trainer is only listed as a singular). By this logic, Box theory suggesting only 2 remaining slots (1 on each side after isabelle), would only bring the count on the site up to 74, which would be quite an odd number. I assume this is how it would work in the mode as well, since Pkmn trainer doesn't list the pokemon separately on the select screen but echoes are separable. Therefore, either 4 or 8 more total fighters makes a lot more sense, to bring that 72 up to either 76 or 80. 80 would be an amazing milestone on the site count!

Anyways, onto my new info:

As we know, yesterday's blog posts were 140, Animal Crossing Remix, and 147, Onett. Therefore, our gap is mostly filled:

133. Exeggutor
134. SCRAPPED POST (for some reason is the isabelle cgi trailer in the US site, nonexistent in the Japanese one)
135. Isabelle cgi trailer
136. Isabelle smash blog
137. isabelle smash memory
138. Toon link
139. Toon link memory
140. Animal crossing theme
141. Summit stage
142. Bowser
143. ???
144. ???
145 shovel knight
146 pikmin theme
147. Onett
148. Ryu
149. Ryu memory

From this, we can actually gather what the original schedule was, taking note that all previous posts were in order by post numbers and music posts were always on wednesday (so, for instance, 145 had to have been tuesday, 138+139 had to have been tuesday, etc. etc.)


9/6 Thursday.) 133 exeggutor
9/7 Friday.) Without the delay: 135 isabelle cgi trailer (134 in US)
# of fighters this week without delay: still 2!

9/10 Monday.) 136 and 137 Isabelle blog post and memory
9/11 Tuesday.) 138 and 139 toon link blog post and memory
9/12 Wednesday.) 140 animal crossing theme + 141 summit
9/13 Thursday.) 142 Bowser
9/14 Friday.) 143 - ??? This one I'm not sure of. Since there were already 3 fighters this week, I'd have to say it's probably an item. It can't be stage or song, and it can't be a fighter + memory since 144 is necessary for monday's post. So either fighter without memory or an item.
# of fighters without delay: 3 or 4, 4 if 143 is a fighter without a memory post.

9/17 Monday.) 144 - ??? I'm pretty sure this one is definitely a fighter, since 145 is an item. No way there'd be 3 items in a row. It would be a fighter without a memory post, though.
9/18 Tuesday.) 145 Shovel knight.
9/19 Wednesday,) 146 Pikmin Theme + 147 Onett
9/20 Thursday.) 148 and 149 Ryu's memory
9/21 Friday.) 150 - ??? Probably a fighter so that there would be 3 fighters this week. Mewtwo would fit since his pokedex entry is 150.

So why is this important? Well, it explains why isabelle's blog entry was on a different date than her CGI trailer: because she NEEDED to be on the following monday, since toon link was the day before the music post, and the only fighter before toon link was isabelle.
This also explains why the post-delay schedule looked so hectic: it was actually qutie methodical. Bowser simply replaced isabelle's role as the monday fighter, and ryu replaced bowser's role as the friday fighter. My only question is why not 144 instead of Ryu, assuming it's a fighter? 144 can't be NOTHING because it would have been the monday past, with shovel knight being the tuesday post and pikmin theme being the wednesday song. hmmm...

Anyways, this doesn't effect the calculations much at all, since we were already calculating based on the week of 9/7 only having 2 fighters. The average is still 2.9 or ~3 fighters a week. This means we can predict tonight's post though:
143, 144, or 150.
I don't think we'd get just an item today, so if 143 IS an item we might get 143 and 144 both today as a day with an item and a fighter post. OR we just get 144 as a singular fighter post, OR we get 150 as a fighter post with a possible memory. I can't see us just getting 143 though, assuming it's an item, since Tuesday was already a day with just an item. I don't think that'd happen twice this week.

If we're getting 3 fighters this week, we should be getting one tonight, and one tomorrow.

 

[PolarPanda]

A fairly large server I moderate on Discord has been discussing this theory endlessly for about a week now, if anybody is interested in contributing as the blog updates more and more, message me and I can invite you.

 

[kevinthedot]

It can't happen this week, but I'm still hoping we get another 4 fighter week to bring the average back to exactly 3 and 8 fighters remaining. It'd be really weird for the About page count to get to "79 Fighters!" rather than 80.
There's been a few different guys (including myself) making charts to keep track of the Today's Fighter stuff in different ways. Don't have anything about the .JSON stuff but they're good visuals to see how much we got left:

 

[PolarPanda]

It can't happen this week, but I'm still hoping we get another 4 fighter week to bring the average back to exactly 3 and 8 fighters remaining. It'd be really weird for the About page count to get to "79 Fighters!" rather than 80.
There's been a few different guys (including myself) making charts to keep track of the Today's Fighter stuff in different ways. Don't have anything about the .JSON stuff but they're good visuals to see how much we got left:

Here is a complete list of the .JSON numbers associated with each posts (NOTE: these all come from the "Rendered" field of each post. That is basically the 'schedule'. There is also an "ID" field, but that just tells you when the posts were originally created. Interestingly, Isabelle is after Ryu in the 'ID" field but before him in the 'Rendered'. In other words, Isabelle's was written later but was planned to be posted before him. So basically, the 'Rendered' field is all that really matters.):

001 - Launch Date - 2018-06-12

002 - Challenger Approaching Intro Video - 2018-06-12

003 - A Piercing Screech - 2018-06-12

004 - Nintendo Direct E3 2018 - 2018-06-12

005 - Site Launch - 2018-06-12

006 - Nintendo Treehouse Gameplay - 2018-06-12

007 - Smash Invitational on NicoNico and OpenRec - 2018-06-12

008 - Smash Invitational Winner - 2018-06-14

009 - Music - 2018-06-12

010 - Amiibo - 2018-06-12

011 - Inkling and Ridley Amiibo - 2018-06-12

012 - Gamecube Controller and Adapter - 2018-06-12

013 - Inkling - 2018-06-12

014 - Squid Sisters - 2018-06-12

015 - Nintendo's E3 Booth - 2018-06-13

016 - E3 Booth LED Screen - 2018-06-13

017 - Playing Space - 2018-06-13

018 - Ridley - 2018-06-13

019 - Launch Star - 2018-06-13

020 - Daisy - 2018-06-14

021 - Super Mario Land - 2018-06-14

022 - Alolan Vulpix - 2018-06-14

022-1 - Rage 2018 Demo and Controls - 2018-06-15

023 -

024 -

025 -

026 - Mario - 2018-06-18

027 - Super Mario Bros. - 2018-06-18

028 - Battlefield - 2018-06-18

029 - Black Hole - 2018-06-18

030 - Bomb Rush Blush - 2018-06-19

031 - Bomberman - 2018-06-19

032 - Bomberman - 2018-06-19

033 - Link - 2018-06-20

034 - Ice Climbers - 2018-06-21

035 - Ice Climber - 2018-06-21

036 -

037 -

038 - Corrin - 2018-06-24

039 - Snake - 2018-06-25

040 - Noisy Notebook - 2018-06-26

041 - Sukapon - 2018-06-26

042 - Joy Mech Fight - 2018-06-26

043 - Solgaleo - 2018-06-27

044 - Lunala - 2018-06-27

045 -

046 - Donkey Kong - 2018-06-28

046 - Donkey Kong - 2018-06-28

047 - Sonic - 2018-07-01

048 - Knuckles - 2018-07-01

049 - Falco - 2018-07-02

050 - Farewell, Beloved Falco - 2018-07-02

051 - City Trial - 2018-07-03

052 - Kongo Falls - 2018-07-03

053 - Krystal - 2018-07-04

054 - Young Link - 2018-07-04

055 - Ocarina of Time - 2018-07-04

056 - Pokemon Trainer - 2018-07-05

057 - Pokemon Stadium - 2018-07-05

058 - Marth - 2018-07-08

059 - Shadow Dragon and the Blade of Light - 2018-07-08

060 - Kirby - 2018-07-09

061 - Kirby's Dreamland - 2018-07-09

062 - Mega Man 4 Medley - 2018-07-10

063 - Alolan Raichu - 2018-07-10

064 - Mega Man - 2018-07-11

065 - Mega Man - 2018-07-11

066 - Pit - 2018-07-12

067 - Pichu - 2018-07-15

068 - Pokemon Gold and Silver - 2018-07-15

069 - Moray Towers - 2018-07-16

070 - Snake Eater - 2018-07-17

071 - Wily Castle - 2018-07-17

072 - Bowser Jr. - 2018-07-18

073 - Super Mario Sunshine - 2018-07-18

074 - Bewear - 2018-07-19

075 - Mii Fighter - 2018-07-22

076 - Great Plateau Tower - 2018-07-23

077 - F-Zero Medley - 2018-07-24

078 - Princess Peach's Castle - 2018-07-24

079 - R.O.B. - 2018-07-25

080 - Stack Up and Gyromite - 2018-07-25

081 - Captain Falcon - 2018-07-26

082 - F-Zero - 2018-07-26

083 - Jigglypuff - 2018-07-29

084 - Pokemon Red and Green - 2018-07-29

085 - Fake Smash Ball - 2018-07-30

086 - Galaga Medley - 2018-07-31

087 - Lylat Cruise - 2018-07-31

088 - Wario - 2018-08-01

089 - WarioWare Gold - 2018-08-01

090 - Rodin - 2018-08-02

091 - Direct Announcement - 2018-08-05

092 - Samus - 2018-08-05

093 - Bomber - 2018-08-06

094 - Direct on Youtube and NicoNico - 2018-08-07

095 - Direct - 2018-08-08

096 - Vampire Killer - 2018-08-08

097 - The Rivals - 2018-08-08

098 - Site Update - 2018-08-08

098' - Bloody Tears/Monster Dance - 2018-08-08

099 - Simon - 2018-08-08

100 - Castlevania - 2018-08-08

101 - King K. Rool - 2018-08-09

102 - Donkey Kong Country - 2018-08-09

103 - Richter - 2018-08-12

104 - Rondo of Blood - 2018-08-12

105 - Abra - 2018-08-13

106 - Gang-Plank Galleon - 2018-08-14

107 - Dracula's Castle - 2018-08-14

108 - Chrom - 2018-08-15

109 - Dark Samus - 2018-08-16

110 - Metroid Prime 2 Echoes - 2018-08-16

111 - Villager - 2018-08-19

112 - Dark Pit - 2018-08-20

113 - Kid Icarus Uprising - 2018-08-20

114 - Gear Up For... - 2018-08-21

115 - Togedemaru - 2018-08-21

116 - Duck Hunt - 2018-08-22

117 - Duck Hunt - 2018-08-22

118 - Alucard - 2018-08-23

119 - Ness - 2018-08-26

120 - Earthbound - 2018-08-26 (This post has images titled 120 but is erroneously listed as post 200 in the .json)

121 -

122 - Rathalos - 2018-08-27

123 - Yoshi's New Island - Main Theme - 2018-08-28

124 - New Donk City Hall - 2018-08-28

125 - Peach - 2018-08-29

126 - Super Princess Peach - 2018-08-29

127 - Wolf - 2018-08-30

128 - Ike - 2018-09-02

129 - Path of Radiance - 2018-09-02

130 - King Dedede - 2018-09-03

131 - Fortress Boss - 2018-09-04

132 - Final Destination - 2018-09-04

133 - Alolan Exeggutor - 2018-09-05

134 - SCRAPPED (isabelle CGI in the US .Json, missing on the japanese one)

135 - Isabelle’s reveal spot

136 - Isabelle trailer

137 - New Leaf Memory

138 - Toon Link - 2018-09-10

139 - Wind Waker - 2018-09-10

140 - Animal Crossing theme

141 - Summit

142 - Bowser - 2018-09-09

143 -

144 -

145 - Shovel Knight

146 - Pikmin - Main Theme - 2018-09-11

147 - Onett - 2018-09-19

148 - Ryu

149 - Ryu memory

 

[Rayleigh]

Hahah...I must be more tired than I thought, counting the Mii fighters as one but not Pokemon Trainer.

That makes the mixture of the B-Theories and the Elimination Mode all the more plausible.

 

[VexTheHex]

Hahah...I must be more tired than I thought, counting the Mii fighters as one but not Pokemon Trainer.

That makes the mixture of the B-Theories and the Elimination Mode all the more plausible.

My issue with the Elimination Mode based roster count is that DLC characters would trash it rather fast.

 

[Zoljinx_]

My issue with the Elimination Mode based roster count is that DLC characters would trash it rather fast.

one quick counter to this, is that Sakurai more than likely did not consider DLC for his original development plan, meaning DLC is a non-factor when determining the roster, much less game modes. furthermore, DLC will trash the roster balance regardless of if the roster was originally balanced for the mode or not. there's alot more holes when talking about DLC interfering with a theory rather than the theory standing by itself.

 

[RileyXY1]

Just in: Ganondorf just got his blog post up.

 

[Smashoperatingbuddy123]

Bingo the math is working in are favor

It’s a character today ganondorf

 

[Izanagi97]

Apparently Ganondorf was the one who was skipped between Bowser and Ryu so that's a thing

 

[Dibble]

one quick counter to this, is that Sakurai more than likely did not consider DLC for his original development plan, meaning DLC is a non-factor when determining the roster, much less game modes. furthermore, DLC will trash the roster balance regardless of if the roster was originally balanced for the mode or not. there's alot more holes when talking about DLC interfering with a theory rather than the theory standing by itself.

The Smashdown theory needs too much for it to really work. There are just too many variables that can leave the roster undividable. It's not just DLC, but also how many characters are unlocked so far, and what with regular smash and 8 player smash being one and the same, the player count can vary from 2 to 8. There is obviously some system in place that deals with scenarios where they're aren't enough fighters for everyone, so Smashdown doesn't absolutely need the roster number to work for it in all cases.
Plus I sincerely doubt Sakurai would outright set a required number of fighters to develop due to a minor secondary gamemode that's more of a bonus if anything.

 

[Zoljinx_]

The Smashdown theory needs too much for it to really work. There are just too many variables that can leave the roster undividable. It's not just DLC, but also how many characters are unlocked so far, and what with regular smash and 8 player smash being one and the same, the player count can vary from 2 to 8. There is obviously some system in place that deals with scenarios where they're aren't enough fighters for everyone, so Smashdown doesn't absolutely need the roster number to work for it in all cases.
Plus I sincerely doubt Sakurai would outright set a required number of fighters to develop due to a minor secondary gamemode that's more of a bonus if anything.

While that may be true, I still disagree.

Factoring in the unlocking process inaccurately portrays what the developer would have in mind for the final product, i.e. the full roster. Our starting roster is more than likely going to be the original 8 considering most advertisements (the Menu, the Switch bundle, etc.) all prominently feature them, at least allowing the mode to be played for 1 round with 8-players in Smashdown. should the blog theory be proven true, and we do in fact get 8 more characters, the final roster you end up with would amount to 80 according to the website, an even 10 rounds for 8 players.
I also feel using the highest possible factor of players (8) is the best feasible compromise the developers can do in the circumstance of determining player count. you can't make a roster size evenly split among all possible amount of players without getting to the hundreds, so factoring only the highest number of players possible is the simplest solution.
Lastly, it would be an odd choice for a developer to not factor in everything, even a secondary mode, when determining the final product for a game like this. Consider the tagline "Everyone is here!", it'd be difficult as a developer to ignore not being able to use every character in a game mode where you're supposed to play the whole roster when that is the entire premise of the game.

I'm not trying to speak for the developer here, but as someone who is currently attending college to get into this industry. this is just how i'd see things should i be the one developing a project like this.
I'll still remain the pessimist and say the box theory might still be true, but if anything, coming up with rebuttals against these points has just made theories against the box more probable in my mind.

 

[PolarPanda]

Just in: Ganondorf just got his blog post up.

Bingo the math is working in are favor

It’s a character today ganondorf

Ganondorf is number 144, which is even better since I predicted 144 was a fighter. 143 Is most likely an item then, so hopefully we get 150 today so we have three fighter (just assuming 150 is a fighter, since we already had 145 as an item this week).

 

[PolarPanda]

Relaxalax is asking about who to credit when making a video about this theory. Looks like we're getting a video!