Amaterasu......To be honest, I've got mixed feelings on her. On one hand, I'll admit I love Ammy, but I'm not entirely sure she would work for Smash. But she's not the main character of this thread.
Either way, I'm pretty sure we've got at least a 61% chance. Then again, game mechanics tend to favor the enemy, so I'm doubtful on that front. Then again, some of these characters have no chance at all, or so pathetically low a chance we can simply write them off. Maybe we'll get a Crit and get more supporters, but with a 3% chance it's unlikely to even the odds.
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.............I've been playing Fire Emblem lately. Sue me. Or throw some enemies at me that will actually obey mechanics and miss me when they have a 30% chance of hitting.