Day 1 Scummate Analysis +
Red Ryu
Crossover. You were Mario, Mafia Doctor who left notes. I was one your buddies. Ring a bell?
....I wish I could recall this.;_;
my memory is god awful it seems
Unlikey mates with Triss.
is Sabrar very experienced? Ohh that changes how I view earlier content then.....how much experience do they have?
Unlikely mates with Triss.
Sabrar’s been playing for about four or five years. Including with you. Crossover Mafia on xkcd the game I already linked for you in my
Fluffy Post .
It’s the same game in which Sabrar was your was your scum partner, as he pointed out in
this post .
Probably not mates.
Smashboards is blocked at my job and I cannot have my phone out at work normally. Grant most people are working from home but still I focus on work. I go off memory now.
Between Laser and Wam I would do Wam every situation at this point. I don't see why people are caling laser scum when I see his thought process step by step. I have an idea where his head is at. I don't agree with Fonti in the sense that I see the mindset and he is showing intent to find scum better than most players imo. His initial push on bessie where I do not agree with why they called bessie out I at least understood what he saw. I think a call out like that over the color stuff is more likely to come from town than scum.
Wam on the other hand is giving more of a IDGAF attitude but in turn is also being very unhelpful in his focus with people. His questionaire seems less focused on finding scum and more centered on himself.
I still would prefer we off Bessie over anyone at this point.
Guys Ryu isn't mates with bessie.
Hell yeah my dream came true!
I would only feel good moving to wam if need be but I stand on sticking to Bessie
This isn't theater. Ryu isn't mates with bessie and wam.
I have a question on this.
I can see why you voted with Sabrar in mind, but why was the double voter the thing you questioned and not the mason.
Disregarding Ryker's play, the mason would be the first thing I would question given our current situation in a vacuum. Why would a double voter draw your attention?
What a townie thing to say.
Boom's "Ryu you predictable ****" post highly indicates that they are not mates.
Conclusion: Ryu is not mates with Boom or Triss or bessie
Wam
Because it comes across as trying to avoid attention. Which is scummy town dont care if they have attention.
This is just scum.
That's weird coming from you, because eariler you agreed with fonti's opinion on the mass claim. Is that not content? If so, is the entire discussion about the mass claim not content, or just fonti's post about it? Why?
I"m just noting this post to think about.
bro you look very bad/negligent for this and I'm refraining from saying why because I quickly realize maven saying that could just have easily been a bait as it could be an RVS style joke
Frozen not mates with wam.
Wam also falls into this category, I've seen more effort from Wam in these first 5 pages then I think I saw from wam from D3 to endgame in Things I Like. I generally feel like Wam is actually digging here but the contrast from Things I Like bothers me considering he was town there despite looking hella scummy by play. I'm left wondering if he's overcompensating for a vulnerability he feels as scum!Wam
Frozen not mates with wam.
Do you feel like there could be a contradiction here?
This has high mate potential with wam. [Go to the quote for the context]
Vote xivii
I havent seen a case that thourpigh my sabrar day 1 as town for a long time. So I'm convinced 1 of them is scum. Good news if XV flips scum sabrar is town.
This seems too overt for them to be mates though.
How do you know 2 are wrong?
I think ultimately Triss and Wam are probably not likely aligned from this.
No, fonti's reaction is perfectly reasonable here.
And this
So you think town is stacked enough to make a mafia double voter balance?
Actually wth? What's with these two low-key defending each other.
#HBC | Ryker
Further to this town must be stacked for a double voter to work. How does a mass claim help there?
This is incredibly scummy. We had masons and IC at this point.
Come again how does talking to the person I'm voting make me scum? Genuine question I dont see the logic there at all.
This is a small thing, but I I think the second line comes from the point of view of scum. He knows he's scum, but doesn't get how Fonti's reasoning leads to that conclusion.
Conclusion: Wam is likely scum. He is not mates with Frozen. And probably not an informed partner with Triss-Sabrar. They both were defensive of each other though. Wam's is a little too overt I think to be partner indicative, but I think there's a good chance, Sabrar was subtly trying to dissuade the Wam wagon. See more in the Triss section for what I mean.
Vic
I was actually interested in wam's guesses but since you volunteered you can take his place.
Triss and Vic probably not mates.
Thank you for providing that guess. I'll be awaiting your claim with renewed interest, whenever that may happen.
I really want to know what Sabrar meant by this.
Sabrar
if there's a green room, could you explain this?
Town
Vicarin
Malakandra
Ryker
Fontisian
Eido
Somitomi
LaserGuy
Bessie
FrozenFlame
Wam
Sabrar/UtopianPoyzin
Maven89
Xivii
RedRyu
Scum
This looks quite bad for Vic. Wam and bessie are in standard mate spots, and the list appears to be out of sync with everyone else's. UP was talking about how everyone's reads seemed to in sync, but Vic's and bessie's were both off. Although I think Laser's was as well. #theflipwasahoax
Has mostly been careening around trying to find people to push apparently. First, Fontisian, until it was apparent that they were being town read by most players, before switching to Xivii after Sabrar's case. Puts out his reads list after, with Maven Bessie and me at the bottom, while still voting for Xivii, who is 6th scummiest by his reckoning, and Fontisian at 5th. After Fontisian starts pushing on him, switches his vote back to Fontisian where it is currently. All in all, his voting patterns seem completely detached from how he claims to be reading people. This strongly suggests that he's much more focused on someone to push instead of himself that might be able to draw other people's votes rather than actually scum hunting and driving against people he views as scummy. Pretty damn scummy.
This also looks really bad. Vic had Wam as hard scum, but Laser only as relatively scummy, yet Vic voted Laser.
What on earth is this setup???
Vic's reaction to wam's claim. This is evidence against my suspicion, which I'm going to conveniently ignore.
Conclusion: There is a good chance that Vic is scum. And that he is partners with wam.
Triss
are we playing with the same Sabrar from Things I Like? why was I expecting you to specifically refuse to answer that question until later
Frozen isn't mates with Triss. [Also see his questioning Sabrar's LAMIST opening]
I normally would say wam but I've got one town-ping from him this game and my first choice for lynch wants him dead. That's enough to make me reconsider. I have no specific scum-pings from others, I think Vic is town and so are you. Eido is doing well for a newbie, fonti is differently town than in previous scum-games. I have no idea where Xivii gets his locktown read on Ryu, if I had to choose someone else right now it would be him because he's done nothing useful this game. And on that note
This post is still really suspicious to me.
Malakandra
Ryker
Red Ryu
Fontisian
Xivii
LaserGuy
Somitomi
FrozenFlame
Maven
Eido
Vicarin
Wam
Bessie
These look really good for the slot, but also feels sort of TMI considering UP indicated that he hadn't read everything (he didn't know about the mason claim). But if Wam is scum, I like the way UP interacted around it, going back to wam unprompted here:
Unvote
Maven is more fine now
Vote: Wam
Back on the Wam train
--
Ngl I can’t remember a time where Maven has said that he realizes how scummy he looks. That and he’s uncharacteristically talkative. Lastly, high doubt he only has one passive ability
Ftr, I have 2 abilities. My only other ability is a one-shot visit that removes my double vote, and Im not forced to use it.
I also think this is incredibly townie.
Wait, so Ryker claimed mason but NOT bessie? Interesting
This post here also makes me think UP's confusion about the mason claim was genuine. But what the hell, why is that read list so accurate? And
Why is Ryker #2 if he didn't know about the mason claim?
I do see your pov on the puzzle part, but I enjoy more figuring out the game from night results and flips, rather than trying to use abilities to optimize strategy on D1.
This seems partnery, but the following post does not:
Like really? He’s not pushing very hard, he’s pushing very carefully. But perhaps he will push harder now, now that he sees it meets with your approval.
Ok yea, looking at this again, I feel fairly confident that bessie and Triss aren't mates. Or at least bessie doesn't know Triss is a mate. Bessie was trying to chip at Font's hard town read of UP.
Ok ok, so look. Fonti, hear me out. Look. Ok. Look. All my other proposals were just me being silly and exploratory, but here this out (im leaving that typo for triss
). The Triss-Up-Sabrar slot is
weird. Like I'm having the hardest time sorting whether it is scum from interactions. But this post above highly indicates that bessie is not an informed mate of UP. However, UP's read list is very TMI. I think his bottom three (bessie, wam, and vic) are all mafia and that UP knew this. I think this slot is a Traitor.
Conclusion: Triss is not partners with Frozen. Triss is likely a Mafia Traitor or town. Bessie is not an informed partner with Triss. Triss should only be lynched if all other suspects have been exhausted.
Maven
There’s not one other post in this entire game that you would consider fluffier? Not one? Even Maven’s #193 which is his entire game content thus far?
I'm not ready to do a complete reads list. Ask Maven for his.
Maven and bessie are certainly not mates. Bessie was frustrated that she was being called out for lack of content when Maven had less than her. These are responses to Frozen and Ryu and also indicate that they are not bessie's mates.
Hold up
We have an innocent child, and a masonry?
That means we have nearly 1/3rd to 1/4th of the town cleared right from the start of the game?
That seems hella suspicious.
This is so obvtown.
I don’t see a world where Ryker is town and lied about being a mason when we already have an innocent child
I really like Ryker’s content, but his claim does raise issues that were not apparent to me until recently ( I was at work placing rodent bait and suddenly thought “wait a minute...”), but I also hate hate hate trying to make pushes based off game balance, especially early in the game. For all we know having 1/3rd or so town players cleared is balanced in the game. It’s also possible the game is just unbalanced, or the towns advantage is only in clears and weak PRs. I honestly have zero idea. This is basically a lot of words to say that I’m not pushing or voting Ryker today, but I’m definitely not viewing him as being mason-cleared anymore. I’m going to treat him as town until he gives me a reason not to.
Font, you have suddenly buddied me really, really hard and it’s unnerving.
Look at this chain of posts. He's thinking through things, not trying to remain consistent.
Yeah I’m not seeing Bessie lynch. I understand she hasn’t done much, but what she has done is point out the dumb points out against her, and almost nothing else. While I’m not town reading the slot I don’t see that close to being worthy of a day 1 lynch when we have Wam and Laser.
BoomFrog
my reads are here
https://smashboards.com/threads/ape...day-october-30th-6pm-est.507976/post-24144440
since then I had an epiphany about the oddness of masons and an IC and have been low keyed worried that Ryker might be taking us for a ride, but until we have any proof I’m still treating him as town based off of his content
Vote: Wam
I can see a world where Laser is town, I don’t see one where Wam is town
Town, town, town.
Town.
Conclusion: Maven is town and certainly not mates with bessie.
Frozen
what's your take on her response my callout of the fluffyness? it's entirely deflection
I missed this earlier when reviewing Frozen/bessie. He was pushing suspicion on her harder than I initially thought.
Unvote: UtopianPoyzin
Vote: Wam
This was unprompted. Unlikely mates with wam.
ok wow why are we wagoning laser over him again with that claim? I just saw laser claimed tracker which makes way more sense
Town.
Conclusion: Again, Frozen is not mates with wam. And is likely town.
Boom
Bessie is not an option and wam is the top option against LaserGuy. Why not move your vote to wam to try to get your second choice yeet? Why do you not suspect LaserGuy? Also, Mala will be the only one to hammer.
Frankly, have you read the whole thread?
I think LaserGuy really is a tracker due to the way he interacted with Mala. That seems like a weak role for scum given how stacked town are. Unless he's like, a tracker plus something. But that's unlikely since he would be more worried about what Mala knew in that case. I'm inclined to trust Laser's claim.
Wam's claim is NAI. If it was his fake claim he'd have the same reaction.
I like these and think there's a good chance Boom is town.
Strongman exists. Wam should flip a coin and protect Mala on heads. That's enough deterrent to move the kill but also gives some chance to protect others.
How would Wam flipping a coin have been a deterrent for Strongman?
Well, you bring protective changes things. But if wam is town jailer and is now outed, scum could RB wam and ninja kill Mala.
If we have a watcher they should probably pick between wam and Mala.
You didn't answer my question though. Why did you say Mala probably wouldn't be able to be killed and then say that Wam refraining to use his action would lead to Mala being killed? I get the RB bit, but why did you initially say Mala probably couldn't be killed?
I think Bessie is about 50/50 here. So you're right, it comes down to my LaserGuy read.
I think laser believed Mala would clear him.
Vote Bessie
that's L-1
You had a chance to be town and you threw it all away :(
Conclusion: Is BoomFrog
Plus+
And why did you respond to Red Ryu and FrozenFlame the way you did in Post
#743 ?
bessie
if there is a green room, could you let me know what you meant by this? Or just let me know post-game.
That's too bad. I have read very little of Vanilla Mafia.
I don't need your vote to yeet Wam or Laser, I already have the authority and positioning to make a decision there. What you have to offer me is 1. perspective, if you have any, which requires you understanding the complexity of the cases in a way that cannot be summed up in a few sentences or 2. analysis from you that I can use to clear you. You cannot offer either of those without catching up somewhat, and understanding the context, and me offering a list of truncated reasons would be pointless.
Catch up, and if I'm still in the game, we'll talk about it.
The aggression between the two of you is random as heck. What was with this response?
I AM HOLY, LUCKY, SIMPLE,
FIBONACCI, ODD, AND PRIME.
IN THIS RIDDLE YOU'LL FIND ME
PRECISELY NINETEEN TIMES.
------
solve that riddle and combine the answer with first words.
P.S. don't actually waste your time on this humble servant.
Eh, Its probably time to drop it anyway. My "Scumlean" on frozen was mainly flowery wording and meta because I don't actually have a scum lean on them. My actual read is Eh town at this point, they have definitely shown moments of passion in their posts and none of their analysis has rubbed me the wrong way. I do think this in their scum range though.
Reason for my fake read was too see if scum would jump on it. The closest I got was these posts by Xivii and Fonti, but after repeated mentioning of being down to wagon FF I haven't got so much as a vote. I saw your earlier question Eido, I just ignored it because I knew I couldn't bring up fake quotes to support it.
Nice.
Three was some stuff I missed from Day 1 so I didn't see this before.
So if you want anything from me mows your chance.
Sigma?
giraffelasergun
What do you think of Maven's play today and at EoD yesterday?
He's most certainly town (see above).
really? why did you think he did that lol
I'm not sure, it just didn't register lol.
tl;dr: the scum team is bessie, Wam, and Vic with Triss as Traitor. Sheep me for easy win.