Personally, I think 47 is most likely, followed by 48, then by 51, 52, and then 49 and 50. The middle numbers are a little less likely just because they don't make a full rectangle.
But those are the most plausible numbers, IMO. More than 52 just starts to become too unwieldy a number for development reasons (balancing and character creation, etc., not CSS reasons). I never expected more than 52 even
before we saw the CSS. I had thought that 47 or 48 was the most likely number on the basis that Sakurai said he didn't want to just add more characters, he wanted to do more with the series - so I figured that the increases we saw in Melee and Brawl were the
upper bound. Meaning that getting +13 characters was the high end... 39 + 13 = 52. Since that was the upper bound, that meant something a little lower was most likely...
Of course, Sakurai said those things early on, before the full development team took form. With the huge team he has with Namco on board, he might have decided that a little bit larger roster was feasible.
So I don't really know how likely I wanna say those things are, but I think 47 is, at least, the most likely number.
The teasing of Ridley, for example, seems pretty odd if he's not playable. Regardless of your thoughts on the CSS, if you think there's not room for Ridley, whatever. If Sakurai he thought teasing Ridley the way he has been was going to get people excited when he's revealed in full as a stage boss instead of extremely disappointed, that's a marketing fail. Hell, I'd be doubly disappointed since it also means the Pyrosphere has a huge random hazard.
Maybe there are people who were excited by what the Yellow Devil was revealed to be. I was not particularly... I would've much preferred it be an AT, or part of some kind of event mode, or whatever.
And all of that isn't even taking into account DLC. If DLC really is going to happen, then I'd guess that the lower numbers are even more likely - because why bust their asses trying to fit all the characters in at release if they know they can stop, focus on polishing what they do have and release a finely tuned and balanced game at release. Then they have some breathing room to release those extra characters a little later. The Wii U gets the game it desperately needs before Christmas, the fans don't endure any more delay, and they please even more fans with extra characters.
Really, more than anything, it's the Gematsu leak's statement about DLC that would make me lean towards the 47-48 roster.
(See, @
EbonyRubberWolf
, we probably don't even disagree as much as you thought...)